The United States' Aspirations for Venezuela's Oil

From the New York Times, [music] I'm. Natalie Kitro. This is the Daily. [music]. In the days since deposing Nicholas. Maduro, President Trump has given. several justifications [music]. for his dramatic action in Venezuela. >> Number one, the drugs are pouring into. the country. You know that. Number. [music] two, the people are pouring into. the country. were. >> But the thing Trump is most focused. [music] on, the thing he keeps pointing. to as central to his ambitions,

>> we're going to take back the oil that. frankly we should have taken back a long. time ago, >> is oil. [music]. >> We're taking back what was taken from. us. They took our oil industry. We built. that entire oil industry. >> Specifically, opening Venezuela's vast. oil fields to American companies. >> They stole our assets like we were. babies. and the United States did. absolutely nothing about it. [music] So. now we're doing everything about it. >> Today, my colleague Anatoli Kermanav.

[music]. explains the history behind Trump's. claim that this is our oil and what it. would really take [music] to get it. back. [music]. It's Tuesday. January [music] 13th. Anatoli, we're here today to talk to you.

about Trump's interest in Venezuelan. oil. And the reason that we are again. turning to you is that you famously for. some of us former Latin America. correspondents spent nearly a decade in. Venezuela covering the country when. Maduro first came to power. And you are. a student of and our in-house expert on. Venezuelan oil. So, welcome back to the. show. >> Thanks for having me again, Natalie. >> Let's just start with a basic question, which is why is Trump so focused on.

Venezuelan oil? >> Venezuela is a quintessential prostate. It is arguably the first prostate. It is. a nation that has been built by oil that. defines itself through oil. And if you a. American president who sees the world. through prism of natural resources, who. sees the world through the geopolitics. of energy and control of energy. resources, then Venezuela is your.

natural target. As my colleague Rebecca. Elliot wrote, you have a country that is. today the world's largest oil producer, the United States, targeting the country. with the world's biggest oil reserves, Venezuela. It is in a way a natural. relationship, a natural tango. Of. course, shaped by drama, shaped by. cooperation, by competition, by all. sorts of conflicts, but it is a. collision of two countries that are in. different ways shaped by oil,

>> right? And it's difficult obviously to. get inside the president's head, but we. do have his public statements on this, right? He's gone out and offered a very. explicit justification for some of this, which is he's saying this is going to. make the US and Venezuela a lot of. money. >> Absolutely. Yeah. For us as reporters, one of the most shocking or unexpected. elements of this whole drama, just how. explicit, how direct Trump is being.

about his motives. the central the. driving aspect of this whole campaign. against Venezuelan President Nicholas. Maduro is about oil. This is the. crucifix of this entire issue. And the. other thing that he's been saying other. than this is about oil. We can make. money on this is that this is rightfully. ours that the US has a claim to this. oil. So walk me through those. statements. What are he and his allies. saying there really? Well, this is.

perhaps the most contentious and complex. parts of the story that Trump is saying. that the US is reclaiming what's. rightfully theirs, what's rightfully. America's. And this sentiment has been. echoed by his officials. You know, his. top advisor Steven Miller has said, and. I'm quoting, American sweat, ingenuity, and toil created the oil industry in. Venezuela. It's tyrannical expropriation. was the largest recorded theft of. American wealth and [clears throat]. property. >> Right? I remember that post from Miller.

It was quite strident and direct. >> Yeah, it's really wild and exaggerated. and incendury, but it does contain a. grain of truth. And to understand. where he comes from, you have to go back. all the way back to the beginning of. Venezuela's oil industry a century ago. >> Okay, take me there. Tell me that story. I want to understand where the grain of. truth in that statement really is. [music]. When Columbus discovered Venezuela 500.

years ago, he thought he'd found an. earthly paradise. >> Venezuela was a land of mountains, plains, and jungles, and with only a. handful of Spanish towns and villages. [music]. >> So before the oil was discovered, Venezuela was sparssely populated, underdeveloped, full of poverty, and. very little infrastructure. >> The first Europeans came to Venezuela. seeking gold. They later found black. gold, crude oil. On December 14th, 1922, an oil well being drilled near Lake. Maraco blew out at the rate of 100,000.

barrels a day. >> Oil was discovered in Venezuela at the. very beginning of the 20th century and. the industry really takes off in the. 1920s. The boom that was propelled a few. years later [music] by mass migration of. American oil workers. >> Foreign oil companies operate the wells. And those American oil workers, they. started building towns built in the. American way with [music] American. grids, suburban houses, schools, baseball, social [music] activities, churches. And those towns gradually grew.

into cities and then metropolises again. imitating American way of life. >> Oil workers like Juan Ramirez with their. high salaries and many company benefits. [music] have achieved a way of life. which is very similar to that of workers. in the most advanced countries of Europe. and North America. Local employees which. are hired by American oil companies. become [music] the backbone of a new. middle class. >> The Ramirez family lives in a modern. community planned and built by the oil. company. >> The oil money has been spent on public.

buildings, skyscrapers, broad avenues, and highways. >> The streets became highways. The social. clubs became malls. The suburban houses. became skyscrapers. Venezuela's oil. capital, Marako, in the west is known. here as the Houston of Venezuela. M. >> the hope is that the future holds more. jobs, better living standards, better. homes. >> Venezuela basically answering modernity. through the prison of how American oil. workers saw the world. >> To Venezuela's people, oil is. everything.

>> Wow. It's interesting. You're saying. basically that the Americans left a huge. mark on Venezuela and not just seen in. the oil industry itself, but all over. the country. It's funny what you're. saying about the architecture does ring. true. I haven't spent that much time in. Caracus, but it's right that it looks. more like an American capital than you'd. see elsewhere in Latin America. >> That's right. And after the influx of. American workers, American capital, the. oil production starts to rise rapidly.

And in the 1950s, Venezuela was the. world's largest oil exporter. It is. making tremendous amounts of money. And. Venezuela's dictator at the time, Marcos. Paris Jimenez, he uses that oil wealth. and pours it into the country's. infrastructure. He starts building. massive tunnels, bridges, highways. Venezuela becomes filled with this. massive grandiose projects that put it. way ahead of its peers in Latin America. It becomes one of the richest countries.

in the region, arguably one of the. richest countries in the world. And it. starts to attract migration from all. across the world, from other corners of. Latin America, from Asia, from southern. Europe, from Lebanon. Venezuela becomes. this melting pot of cultures, all drawn. to the wealth provided by the oil. industry that is fueling the economy, fueling the country's development and. reshaping it as this mecca of modernity. at a region that was still extremely. poor and backward at the time. So. obviously there is a clear benefit for.

Venezuelans in all of this. They're. reaping rewards from this boom, but. they're also seeing that there's a bunch. of foreign companies, right, making a. lot of money off of selling what is. their main natural resource. So as good. as those times may have been, was there. any tension there? >> There was. There's a growing number of. Venezuelans began to question the the. status quo which gives the bulk of the. wealth towards the corporations and.

Venezuela really becomes the driver of a. movement that ended up shaping the. world. A movement called resource. nationalism. >> And what is that? What's resource. nationalism? >> This is a concept that states that. ultimately natural resources belongs to. the citizens of a state. That the. country's national wealth belongs to its. people and not to the corporations that. are exploiting these resources. Hm. And. when is this taking hold? Just give me a. sense of time here. [snorts]. >> So in late 50s a Venezuelan statesman. called Juan Pablo Peris Alonso travels.

to the Middle East. He goes to the other world producing. nations and convinces them if we bond. together, if we stick together, we can. assert our sovereignty, we can bring. more wealth to our people and we can. minimize the influence of corporations. in our society. And this becomes OPAC. which is basically a group of oil. nations that together agree on how much. oil is produced between them thereby. setting the prices and setting the pace. of a global economy. The idea behind.

this association, which it sounds like. Venezuela [music] is key to helping. create, is that these countries are. going to agree on how many barrels they. want to be in the supply and that that. will affect prices, giving them some. control over the revenues they're. reaping from this [music] production. >> That's right. And the second crucial. pillar of resource nationalism is. [music]. ownership of resources. So it starts a. chain of legal reforms that assert that. what lays underground belongs [music] to.

the states. >> and it culminates in Venezuela in the. 1970s when a sensor left pro- US. president at the time Carlos Andres. Paris decides to nationalize Venezuela's. oil industry.

>> [music]. >> And what is the nationalization of. Venezuela's oil actually look like? How. does that play out? >> So, Carson Paris chooses a relatively. consiliatory path. This is a cold war. Venezuela is deeply allied the United. States. So he starts talking to the oil. companies. He works out an agreement. where the oil companies are compensated.

and are offered contracts under which. they can continue making a lot of money. And nationalization creates a company. called Petroleios the Venezuela a. stateowned company known here. universally as Pedvesa which now owns. all of Venezuela's oil. And how do. Venezuelans feel about this? >> Nationalization becomes the source of. national pride. It becomes one of. Venezuela's foundational myths. It. becomes an event that divides Venezuelan.

history and before and after. What. Venezuelan people asserting control over. their wealth over what they consider. their birthrights the oil under the. ground. And this company grows and is. working together with foreign oil. companies and it's using some of the. revenues to train Venezuelans in the oil. industry. It is using the money to send. Venezuelans on scholarship to world's. best universities and it becomes a. fairly effective modern company that is. at the cutting edge of the technology of.

the time. It was a place where. Venezuelan middle class where. Venezuela's professional class had. formed itself and it becomes the. cornerstone of Venezuelan society and. oil prices are at their peak. The. country is flooded with money with much. of that wealth going into education and. alleviation of poverty. And at you've. described this long tale of history. where American oilmen came in, worked. the fields in Venezuela, got this. incredible industry up and running. And.

it sounds like Venezuelans really. actually gained a lot from the. partnership and and from the. nationalization that came from it. They. got this setup where their national. company runs things, where it's working. with foreign companies, and it's fueling. pretty remarkable development. >> That's right. It was a blessing, but it. was also a curse. Venezuela became addicted to oil. Its. economy became extremely dependent on.

oil. And then in the 80s, the global. economy changed and the oil prices. starts to go down. The price of a barrel. drops from $40 to $10. Wow, that's. pretty massive if you're depending on. this. >> It's a massive decline, Natalie. And. cracks begin to appear in Venezuela's. economic model. Venezuela goes from a. period of abundance where the state. lavished money on a welfare state to a. period of scarcity where money is. scarce, where public spending is scars,

corruption scandals grow, and people. become increasingly disillusioned and. angry with the system. >> [music]. >> So what does the Venezuelan government. do? How do they respond to this crisis? >> The government's solution to this anger. is more oil. [music] They turn to a. remote region of a country called the. Arino oil belt which contains the. world's largest oil reserves. But these. reserves are locked in sludgy tar that. is extremely difficult to process and it.

requires cutting edge technology to make. it sellable which Venezuela does not. have at the time but American. corporations do. [music]. So Venezuelan government turns to. foreign investors turns to foreign. multinationals to help them unlock the. wealth hidden in this remote region. [snorts] and they call this process. [music] a perura petrolera the oil. opening. It is natally one of the most. ambitious oil investments program in the. world at the time.

And Pervesa, the state oil company that. has been at the heart of Venezuelan. economy, the heart of its public life, takes the back seat and allows foreign. companies to take the leads on the. development of these reserves and take. the leads on monetizing the profits from. these reserves. >> And does it work? Does that arrangement. actually yield anything? >> The oil starts to flow. Production. starts to increase rapidly and reaches. more than 3 million barrels from about 1. and a half million by 1998. But the.

economic stability never comes back. >> People feel that the oil industry no. longer serves the national interests and. people start to look for solutions. elsewhere. and it fuels the rise of one of the most. important politicians in modern Latin. American history. an army officer called Chavez. [music].

[music]. We'll be right back. Okay, let's talk about who Ugo Chavez is. and what his role is in this moment. >> So, Ugo Chavez grew up in a poor family. in Venezuelan Savana. And like many. working-class children in Venezuela, he. saw his chance to succeed in life in the. armed forces. He joins a military. academy and rises rapidly for the ranks.

using his sharp intellect and charisma. At the same time, he becomes influenced. by nationalist and socialist ideas. floating around during the Cold War. And. in 1998, >> he launches a political campaign that. takes the country by storm, capturing. support from all segments of Venezuelan. society. >> And what's his message in this campaign?

His. message is Venezuelan oil belongs to. Venezuelan people. And he rallies. against Pervesa, the state oil company. that he sees has become basically a. thief of western interests, a thief of. Venezuelan elites that have lost touch. with the people that are serving by our. own interests that have turned Pavvesa. into little country club for the rich. and the privileged. [cheering]. And Chavis wins 56% of a popular vote. Many Venezuelans rejoice when he becomes.

president in 1999. >> And after he wins, how does he make good. on those campaign promises? >> So his first big project is. redistribution of insulin's wealth. And. that means restructuring completely the. way PVESA works, the cash cow of the. economy. And this sets Chavis on a crash. course against the company's management, the high priests of Venezuelan oil. industry, the western educated. technocrats that have been running the. Venezuelan oil industry for decades.

Linia. >> In 2002, Chambers goes on national. television, pretends to be a soccer. referee, blows the whistle, and fires. senior executives. >> Offside. Offside. >> He says, "You are offside.". >> When Chavez replaced the oil company's. top [music] executives with political. appointees, some of whom were radical. Marxists, there was a management revolt.

And this fuels nationwide protest that. brought the country throughout [music]. 2002. This is a crucial moment in Venezuela's. history because many of the country's. middle class realize that this is a. power grab. These people who have for. generations seen as a pedesta as a model. of national development, they see it. being taken apart for a political. project without any consideration for.

accountability or democratic [music]. norms. And the year culminates with a. massive oil strike. Pedesta workers. paralyze the country. Exports stop. The. country runs out of gasoline. The. country is in chaos. and tens of. thousands of workers, including most of. the company's skilled workforce, walk. out of [music] jobs, basically. paralyzing the Venezuelan economy. >> And how does Chavez respond? >> He fires thousands of Venezuelan.

workers, primarily managers and skilled. workers, people that supported the. strike, but also people that made the. company tick, people that made it. competitive and efficient. and he turns. a company into just another tool of his. political populist campaign. And all of. a sudden, this company, but it's known. for its technological expertise and. efficiency, starts opening supermarkets, providing daycare, uh hosting theater. performances. >> Well, like like theater sponsored by. Pedesa, like sponsored by your state oil.

company. It's hard to think of a. cultural social activity or a product. that you buy that has not been sponsored. or sold by pedesta at the time. It's. literally just becomes the provider of. social services and welfare in the. country. And corruption also increases. Many of government insiders, many people. close to Chavis become big oil industry. contractors providing PBESA with. services and goods that are overpriced. in return for political loyalty. So this.

state-owned company that was such a. source of national pride, this crown. jewel has now been gutted basically of. the expertise and the technical knowhow. that made it work that made it so. functional for so long. >> That's right. Its revenues fall and. production begins to decline and Chavis. needs to look for other sources of. revenue. It needs to look for other. sources of wealth that fund his populist. projects. So in 2007 he launches another. wave of nationalizations. He takes aim.

at the oil opening via a perura. Remember those international oil. companies that have spent billions to. refine the tar crude locked or inino oil. belt? >> The Chavez government has told its. foreign partners that they must agree by. May 1st to give Pabesa a 60% stake in. those joint ventures or see them. nationalized altogether. >> Well, Chavis decides that [music] these. projects now belong to the state. He.

forces the companies to give up control. of his projects and give state majority. share. >> We will never give this our wealth, our. nation to the United States empire. Even. if the Venezuelan oligarchs scream or if. the United States and its multinational. companies attacks us [music] and two. major oil companies, companies that. became Exxon Mobile and Kanuka Phillips. refuse. Exon Mobile wants to be. compensated for the investments it lost. when Chavis nationalized the country's.

oil venture. >> They leave Venezuela and start a series. of legal processes that end up awarding. them billions of dollars in damages that. these companies continue to claim have. been stolen from them by the Chavis. government. So unlike the first wave of. nationalization in the 1970s, which you. said led to a relatively functional. partnership between the Venezuelan. government and foreign oil companies, this wave is a lot more contentious. And.

I wonder, is this what Trump and his. aids are referring to when they talk. about Venezuela stealing from American. oil companies? Like, is this the moment. that they're referring to? We don't. know. But it is a moment when Venezuela. came closest of defrauding American. companies, came closest to taking away. the money that American companies have. claimed is rightfully theirs. But there. was an exception. Chevron, an oil. company that decided to accept much less.

profitable terms, knowing that in the. long term they stand to win. The country. had the biggest oil reserves in the. world. So even if there was a small. chance that those reserves would fall. into company's hands, it would create a. massive amount of wealth for the. corporation and its shareholders. >> Okay. So at this point, Pedesa is a. shell of its former self. The American. companies are all gone except for. Chevron and Venezuela is now sitting on. this massive oil reserve without really.

the capacity to realize the potential. the infrastructure, the institutions, they just don't really exist anymore. >> That's right. And when Chavis dies in. 2013, the rickety populist economic. system that he has built falls apart. like a house of cards. [music]. All prices fall and with it the. Venezuelan economy. Starting 2014, it. enters a prolonged period of economic. decline of collapse that ended up being. the biggest economic crisis in modern.

history outside a war zone. After 17. years of socialist rule, Venezuela, one. of the world's largest oil producers, has the world's highest inflation rate. >> With basic necessities scarce and. inflation skyrocketing, some reports. suggest it [music] could go as high as. 700%. >> And that crisis spreads to the oil. industry. It becomes a shell of itself. Wells dry up, investments dry up, and. people are scrambling around oil fields, taking apart the infrastructure, taking.

apart pipelines, the fences, the. equipment for scrap. Venezuela's vet oil. fields become a scene out of a dystopian. movie. >> It's kind of wild to imagine when you. just think about how much money and time. and effort went into building all of. that stuff to have it basically be torn. apart and sold for parts. I mean, things. had to have been really bad at that. point. >> People are struggling to survive. Natalie, >> the people of Venezuela are suffering.

from violence, a world record of daily. murders, and random kidnappings. >> Malnutrition rises massively. Many. people are skipping the meal. >> I'm very annoyed. [music] Only God knows. what we're going through because in. truth, no one is helping us. The. situation is so severe, the New York. Times reports it's even making it hard. for doctors to keep newborn babies. alive. >> Millions of people immigrate from a. country. It is difficult to imagine the. scale of collapse that [music] the.

country has experienced, losing more. than 3/4 of its economic activity. without a war, without social unrest, without a major natural [music]. catastrophe. All caused by the populist. policies instituted by Uga Chavez and. continued by his successor Nicholas. Maduro. [music]. And this is a huge blow obviously for a.

movement that has made its name selling. itself as a leftist movement that cares. about the people that is working to. prevent this kind of poverty from making. people suffer. So what's the response? >> So initially the government tries to. just chug along repressing protest and. doubling down on the failed policies. that have brought the country to its. economic knees. But then President Trump. starts his first term and he launches a. campaign to depose Mr. Maduro and his.

biggest blow was sanctioning Venezuelan. oil industry. Basically making it. illegal for Venezuela to sell its oil to. the west. This paralyzes Venezuelan oil. experts and paralyzes economic activity. deepening the crisis and it forces. Maduro to change tac. He entrusts one of. his top lieutenants, Dust Rodriguez, to. fix the economy. >> Now the leader of Venezuela. now the. leader of Venezuela and she embarks on a. long campaign to steady the economy and. the pillar of her campaign is to change. the oil industry and she does it by.

launching stealth privatization. On. paper, the oil continues to belong to. Venezuelan people and the state has the. dominant role in Venezuelan oil. projects. But in practice, under the. secret contracts signed by Deli, foreign. companies gain control of Venezuelan oil. fields. They get to make all the. decisions about them and they given a. bigger share of his project's profits. Investment picks up and so does the oil. production. And by the end of 2025, the. country is producing 1.2 million barrels. per day, a fraction of where it was.

before Chavis took power. but a. significant improvement to where the. country was just a few years ago. >> Okay. So at present you're saying things. are certainly not as dire as they were. but in general the story that you've. told overall paints a picture of extreme. decay in this industry in the. infrastructure around it. An industry. that is very difficult to just start. back up overnight when you start to lose.

it given how much it takes to make it. work. Trump is now saying after having. captured Maduro, after supporting Deli, now as the leader, that US companies are. going to revive Venezuela's oil. industry. What would it take to actually. do that right now? >> It would take tens of billions of. dollars of investment. Dela Rodriguez. was able to reverse the decline and edge. up the production by taking the. lowhanging fruits, by fixing things that.

were easier to fix. And many oil. executives and analysts say that these. lowhanging fruits are coming to an end. That for Venezuela to significantly. improve its oil production to take it to. a whole other level would require a. massive [snorts] scale investment that. the country has not had for decades. But. there is good news for the oil companies. and that is that everyone knows where. that oil is. The hard part, the. exploration has already been done. The. difficulty is getting it out of the. ground. Remember that most of oil.

reserves lie in the sludgy area called. the UNokco oil belt and the cutting edge. multi-billion dollar plants that were. used to process them have largely been. decayed and disintegrated. The thing. about the oil industry Natalie is that. you cannot just turn the spigot back on. Once something decays, once something. falls apart, it often damages the. geological receptacle holding the oil. and it's extremely expensive and. timeconuming to repair the. infrastructure to repair the reservoirs. and make the oil flow again.

>> And is doing that actually appealing to. American oil executives? Like do they. actually want this challenge? That is. the main question right now, Natalie, just how committed the companies will be. to taking another bat on Venezuela. Taking another battle on a country that. has burned them badly in the past. So. there's still a lot of unknowns, but the. cost of sitting on the sidelines is. massive. At stake are literally the. world's largest oil reserves. Just last.

week, Trump met the executives of some. of the biggest Western oil companies to. talk about investment in Venezuela. The. plan is for them to spend, meaning our. giant oil companies will be spending at. least $100 billion dollars of their. money, not the government's money. >> And the broad takeaway was that while. Trump made big promises, touting 100. billion investments in the country, companies themselves showed interest. >> For more than a century, Chevron has. been a part of Venezuela's past. uh we.

are certainly committed to its uh. present and we very much look forward as. a proud American company to help it. build a better future. >> But remain cautious. >> there. We have a very long history in. Venezuela. In fact, uh we first got into. Venezuela back in 1940s. Uh we've had. our assets seized there twice and so you. can imagine to reenter a third time. would require some pretty significant. changes from what we've historically. seen here. And very tellingly, Axen. Mobile, one of the world's largest oil.

companies and the company that left. Venezuela in 2007 said that. >> if we look at the legal and commercial. constructs and frameworks in place today. in Venezuela, uh, today it's. uninvestable. >> Venezuela today is uninvestable. Underline the challenges facing Trump's. plans towards the country's oil. industry. >> Let's get into some of those challenges. What are the conditions that you think. need to be present for these companies. to come back and to make the kind of.

sustained investments that you would. need to see for the potential of. Venezuela's oil fields to actually be. realized? >> So, first of all, you have to keep in. mind that Maduro has been gone for just. about a week. The new leader has. replaced them, Deli Rodriguez, she's. basically ruling through the guns of. American warships trained on her. internal enemies. >> [snorts]. >> The country is filled with armed groups. that have been loyal to Maduro. The. country is filled with weapons. The. country is filled with different.

political factions that oppose Deli. Rodriguez and her policies. And the risk. of unrest and violence is significant. >> What you're describing, Anatoli, is a. situation in which Deli formally holds. power, but she's also contending with. these internal rivals and particularly. figures in the political spectrum that. have a lot of power. not only over the. armed forces in Venezuela, but over. armed groups within the country that if. she doesn't control them and if her.

rivals do could cause a lot of trouble. >> That's right. She's under pressure to. generate wealth, to please the Americans. and get the oil flowing. But at the same. time, she's trying to keep it bay the. hardliners that are just waiting for her. one wrong move in order to pounce and. undermine her government. >> Okay. So one broad condition for foreign. investment for the oil companies to. return to Venezuela is political. stability which does not seem like a. guarantee at all at this point. What. else?

>> Then come the legal guarantees. American oil companies have been burned. here before. They have lost billions of. dollars of investments and they want to. make sure that this will not happen. again. And of course, for now, President. Trump is completely focused on getting. Venezuelan oil into the ground and into. the United States, but his term is. running out in three years, and we don't. know who will succeed him, and not do. the oil companies. And this uncertainty. and the scale of required investments is. giving them a pause. >> Right. It's interesting the point about.

Trump leaving office creating some. uncertainty there because essentially. what you're saying is these companies. they operate on very long timelines. So. not being able to forecast out 5 10 15. years in the future that's a real. liability. >> It is. And of course the world is going. through an electrical revolution where. the structure of how we consume energy. and the energy we need is changing. dramatically. China is winning itself. off the oil by moving towards electric. cars and sustainable energy. And these.

companies when they look at the billions. of investments that have to be made, they are thinking will this oil be. needed in 1015 years time. >> Okay, just to enumerate these conditions. because they are many and they feel. really monumental. We're talking about. some kind of understanding that there. will be political stability inside. Venezuela and a consistent desire and. ability to collaborate with the United.

States as well as a sense that the. revolution in clean energy is not going. to just totally displace oil in the. future. So for a moment, if we set aside. whether all three or any of those. conditions are actually anything that. these companies can bet on and just. assume for a moment that things work out. in their favor and that the investment. flows in, play out that best case. scenario for a minute. If Venezuela and.

these oil companies achieve that, what. exactly would the US gain? >> The US would gain a massive source of. oil and that means that global oil. prices will fall. And that means that. the gasoline prices will fall. The price. that American people pay at the pump. will fall. Remember that affordability. is now the crucial tenant of American. politics. This is a weight dragging down. Republican party in one election after. another. And President Trump's biggest.

concern right now is bringing these. prices down and flooding the global oil. market with Venezuelan crude is. potentially one of the measures that. could help him achieve that goal. >> And [snorts] if we're just still living. in this hypothetical best case, I have. to also imagine that controlling what's. assumed to be the world's largest oil. reserves would give the US a lot of. power geopolitically over our rivals. I. mean, in that case, you really can turn.

a spigot on and off. >> Absolutely. And this would have massive. consequences. Take, for example, America's relations with Russia, another. nuclear power before. It's currently. negotiating a broad deal focused on the. war in Ukraine. Russia also deres most. of its revenues from oil. And if Trump. is able to set global oil prices by. turning on and off the spigot of. Venezuela's oil bounty, this is going to. make it very difficult for Russia to. achieve its goals without bowing to. America's needs. China, as we said, is.

winning itself away from oil. But that. process could take decades and in the. meantime, it is extremely reliant on. imports from other countries. And if. Trump can control the source of those. impacts again, he can force Beijing to. bow to his demands. >> I want to just push also on one of the. premises of these conversations, which. is that Trump and a future US leader. would actually be able to control.

Venezuela's oil. The US does not have at. this point direct control over the. Venezuelan government. And I assume, you. know, down the line, future Venezuelan. leaders may be reluctant, honestly, to. be viewed as simply puppets of the US. government. And if the US military is. not, you know, training those weapons on. Venezuela indefinitely, how long can that setup really last? Is. the premise of control actually a.

fallacy? >> For now, Natalie, things seems to be. working out in Trump's favor. Venezuelan. interim government has already announced. that it's going to embark on a massive. legal reform, potentially changing the. oil laws to give foreign companies a. greater say in how it's run. And. remember that this government remains. deeply dependent on the implicit threats. of American force to keep its internal. adversaries at bay and appears to be. more than willing to be doing Trump's. bidding.

But Natalie, history shows that such. ambitious, grandio, long-term plans. rarely turn out the way they've been. envisioned. There's just so many. different factors being thrown together. at this historical moment. And the. future of Venezuelan oil industry, and. by extension, the future Venezuelan. people may look very different from the. way Washington sees it now. [music]. >> [music]. >> Well, Anatoli, thank you.

>> It's a pleasure to be here as always. [music]. >> We'll be right back. [music]. [music]. Here's what else you need to know today. On Monday, officials in Minnesota and. Illinois sued the Trump administration. over ICE enforcement in their states.

They argued that the mass deployment of. immigration agents violated the. Constitution and [music] infringed on. state sovereignty. The suits come after a high-profile. [music] ICE campaign in Chicago. And in. the middle of an ongoing and. increasingly tense enforcement blitz in. Minneapolis, [music] federal officials have defended. their work in both states, saying it's. been necessary [music] given that local. officials haven't cooperated with. President Trump's immigration crackdown.

And federal investigators examining the. fatal shooting of Renee [music] Good are. looking into her possible connections to. activist groups that have been. protesting ICE. [music]. According to people familiar with the. matter who spoke with the Times, they're. also reviewing [music] the actions of. the federal agent who killed her. [music].

Today's episode [music] was produced by. Ricky Novetski, Caitlyn O'Keefe, Diana. Wyn, and AA [music] Chathurvedy. It was. edited by Lisa Chow with help from MJ. Davis Lim. Fact checked by [music] Susan. Lee, contains music by Dan Powell and. Marian Lozano, and was engineered. [music]. by Alyssa Moxley. Special thanks to Carlos Prito and Lissa. Anderson. [music].

That's it for the Daily. [music] I'm. Natalie Kiter. See you tomorrow.