The Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing the Election

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. daily millions of Voters in States. across the country cast their ballots in. the presidential primary on super. Tuesday leaving little doubt that the. November election will be a rematch. between Joe Biden and Donald Trump but. in a race that's increasingly inevitable. a New York Times SI College poll shows. there's a critical group of Voters that. are making the outcome of that race.

anything but today my colleague Nate Con. on who those voters are and why they. represent a particular threat to Joe. Biden it's Wednesday March. 6th Nate hello hello how are you hello. hello how's it going it's going well how. are you good it's h it's a little rainy. my feet are stopping wet oh I did the. Subway so did I I'm going to I'm going.

to shut the uh shut the door here. yeah so Nate super Tuesday has just. happened which means of course more than. a dozen states have voted in their. primaries and President Biden and former. president Trump continue to sail to. their respective nominations I mean you. know at this point there is really no. suspense at all barring something. extremely unexpected whether they will. be the nominees in the general election. that's right nearly half of all the. delegates at state have been awarded and.

Biden and Trump have won nearly all of. them so they are right now just on the. cusp of winning a majority of the. delegates and securing the nomination. and they'll do that over the next week. or two okay so to that point the New. York Times just released a poll about. how people are feeling about that. inevitable matchup and that's what we. want to talk with you about today Nate. not the results because frankly they're. not all that surprising but instead this. poll that gets at how voters are. actually thinking about their choices in.

this election so tell me about this poll. the Topline result is that voters are. not happy about this upcoming election. when we ask them in an open-ended. question they say that they're. frustrated they're disappointed that. they're anxious they're scared they. offer negative or at least uncertain. feelings about the election that's in no. small part because they don't like. either of the candidates they don't have. a favorable view of either Joe Biden or. Donald Trump but when we ask them to. choose how they would vote if the. election were held today Trump is firmly. in the lead he's Up by Five Points among.

registered voters and four points among. those who we think are likeliest to vote. and that's the largest lead by the way. that Trump has ever had in a times. Sienna or times CBS poll and it's really. one of the largest leads that a. Republican presidential candidate has. had period over the last 20 years since. George W bush LED John krey so this is. pretty remarkable I mean a peak for his. entire career in politics really one of. the highest ever leads I mean this is. probably in Biden camp Camp raising some.

real alarms you would think and it's. worth noting it is not just our poll. here all of the polls show Donald Trump. leading in the critical Battleground. States worth more than the 270 electoral. votes he needs to win there were other. polls this weekend that showed Trump in. the lead CBS FOX News so there's a. consensus at this point that Donald. Trump has a lead and he's had it now for. four months this is a sustained and. clear Advantage okay so voters aren't. feeling too great about their options. but with the options that they do have. they're leaning towards Trump In This. Moment by pretty meaningful margin.

that's right and it's worth dwelling on. why Trump has the lead and why that's. related to this dissatisfaction when we. pulled voters four years ago a majority. of Voters said they had a favorable view. of Joe Biden and a majority of Voters. said they had an unfavorable view of. Donald Trump four years later Donald. Trump's numbers are almost exactly the. same in our final poll in 2020 54% said. they had an unfavorable view of Donald. Trump today 54% say they have an. nonfavorable view of Donald Trump so not. much difference there but the Top Line.

result is completely different and. that's because Joe Biden has gone from. being a broadly acceptable relatively. well-liked figure who for years ago 52%. of Voters said they had a favorable view. of to a pretty unpopular candidate who. voters are very skeptical of now 38% of. Voters have a favorable view of him his. job approval rating is even less than. that so big change in the Biden category. huge change it completely flips around. the fundamental premise of the Biden. campaign from 2020 last time Joe was the.

guy who was acceptable to enough people. who disliked Donald Trump that he could. win that's why Democrats chose him over. someone more controversial like. Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders it's. not true anymore okay so tell us about. the voters who are driving this change. this dissatisfaction with Biden the. easiest way to think about it is that. there's this group of Voters who dislike. both candidates and this is a really. important group that bolsters like to. call the double haters double haters. double haters they don't like either of. them twice.

and they really have the potential to. decide this. election so give me a sense of who these. voters are well the double haters are. about 19% of the electorate in our poll. and that's up from 5% in 2020 so it's a. big increase increase and last time they. voted for Biden by a 3 to1 margin and. you know they're a mixed. bag when you call them up Hello Hello. Hello whoa I really never expected a. reported.

call they tell you all kinds of. different things it's really the age one. of the main things is just his age he's. past his prime he doesn't really know. what's going on many of them think Joe. Biden is just too old to Be an Effective. president I think Joe Biden is a lovely. older gentleman that should resign at. some. point but other than that economically. we've been in the dump some of them say. that they are deeply dissatisfied about.

the cost of living being 20% higher than. it was 4 years ago don't make food more. expensive we all buy it it's very. obvious and for people who have lower. income on a grade level I would probably. give him a th minus and you can imagine. different people different archetypes of. people who would have liked Biden last. time but have soured on him now I mean. I'm horrified to think in this country. this is the best we can come up with for. the next four years to be a president. and have a moderate voter who maybe.

reluctantly voted for Joe Biden in 2020. because they didn't like Donald Trump. but Joe Biden has kind of like walked in. and just has let this country get. overrun with all kinds of just stuff. happening I just now just thinks that. the Administration has done a poor job. at the border or on foreign policy or. spent too much money and hasn't rained. in the national debt I would probably. consider myself a leftist leaning more. towards the left pretty Progressive kind.

of you can imagine a voter on the left. continuing to back Israel in Gaza has. been particularly disappointing would be. a very mild way to put it who is. frustrated by Biden's handling of Gaza. also considering his policies are stuck. decades in the past or thinks that the. Administration has failed to be. sufficiently Progressive in its domestic. agenda you know I'm I'm not very excited. right. now and what's particularly notable is. that that this group of double haters.

includes young voters black voters and. Latino voters the kinds of Voters that. Democrats usually count on to win. elections and in the end this very. diverse group of Voters is pretty split. on how they'll vote in the next. election split how exactly like how are. these voters thinking about their vote. in this moment I mean they're double. haters as you say so they don't love. either candidate but do we have a sense. of which way they're leaning right now. you when I said split I meant that they.

are deeply unhappy with their choice and. as a consequence they are splitting in. all kinds of. [Music]. ways I do plan on voting for Joe Biden. unless somebody else magically comes to. the Forefront before then some of them. say that they'll vote for Biden I have. no other choice but to stick with them. we're just being forced to pick. essentially the lesser of two evils and. some of them I honestly don't think I'm. going to vote say they're simply not. going to vote there's no good outcomer.

regardless if we win so it doesn't. matter in the general for the presidency. I will be voting for a third party this. year others say they'll vote for a minor. Party candidate my first time since I. think the the fourth grade when we got. to do a mock ballot and I voted for. nater I think it was the fourth grade I. don't really I guess I'd have to really. do some soul searching and try and. figure out who's going to do the least. amount of damage still others they just. throw up their hands and say that. they're. undecided I could say it would probably.

take a lot of whne for me to figure out. what I'm going to do but I I don't. really I definitely leaning more towards. Donald Trump uh and some of them will. vote for Trump I'm just picking the. least horrible Al alternative and I. think that that's Donald Trump this time. around if you had told yourself back in. 2020 that you'd vote for Trump in 2024. what do you think your reaction would. have. been I Pro it would have been like a. slapped in the face.

[Music]. probably wow okay so Biden might. actually be driving these voters voters. who actually voted for him in 2020 into. the arms of trump and even if some of. these voters don't actually switch sides. they might just stay home as you say or. vote third party which would also be. pretty damaging for Biden that's right. and it's worth remembering that the last. election was pretty close Joe Biden only. won the critical Battleground states by.

less than a percentage point in most. cases so he does not have room to. bleed a huge chunk of his support among. young black and Latino. [Music]. voters and the critical question for. this election is whether these voters. remain this dissatisfied with Joe Biden. 8 months from. [Music]. now will be right.

back so Nate from everything you've said. this election could really come down to. these voters who are legitimately torn. over what to do I know it's early we're. eight months out and we know how these. voters are leaning but do we have a. sense of where they'll land come. election day the short answer is no I. mean there's a long way until the. election but you know to try and at. least get a sense of where this could. head and to see the lay of the land you. know I like to look back at historical.

examples that feel somewhat like this. moment and oddly enough I think the. example that comes to my mind isn't 2020. even though this is a rematch but. 2016 the election between Trump and. Clinton okay so tell me about 2016 what. is it about that election that feels. analogous to you the thing that is most. analogous is that 2016 also featured a. large number of these double haters. voters who didn't like either Hillary. Clinton or Donald Trump in fact there. were more double haters in that election.

really than in this one and there's a. lot about the way that race played out. that already feels reminiscent of the. polling today one obvious example is the. large number of people who are flirting. with third party candidates back in 2016. Gary Johnson actually peaked around 10%. of the vote it's a little bit like how. Robert keny Jr is routinely polling. around 10% of the vote in the polls that. are asking about him at this point and. there were also in that election a large. number of traditionally Democratic and. Republican voters who were not behaving. like traditionally Democratic and.

Republican voters in the polls when they. were being given this choice they didn't. want to make how do you mean there were. a lot of blue collar democrats for. instance who were deeply frustrated with. Hillary Clinton's position on free trade. or on immigration and who were actually. a little bit tempted by some of what. Donald Trump had to offer on remember. well working class whites and on the. other hand there were also a lot of. Highly Educated Republicans who didn't. like Donald Trump that was partly on the. issues right because of his stances on. immigration or opposition to entitlement.

cuts it was also though because of his. conduct he routinely said things that. were considered inappropriate or even. offensive and that repelled a lot of. traditionally Republican voters as well. and so the polls showed a large number. of Voters who were traditionally. Republican or traditionally Democrat who. were frustrated by both candidates and. were either undecided considering doing. something shocking like voting for the. other party or supporting a minor Party. candidate in that election Gary Johnson. interesting so in the way that Biden is. struggling with his traditional. Coalition in 2024 we saw both Clinton.

and Trump having that same struggle in. 2016 Clinton of course with blue Coller. Democrats Trump with some subset of. traditional Republicans College grads. people like that exactly and it created. a very volatile campaign and depending. on what the news was at any given point. these undecided voters who were. conflicted between the two candidates. could swing between the two sides very. abruptly because just depending on. whether on any given day you were. thinking about the thing that upset you. most about Hillary or Donald Trump you.

could give a pollster a completely. different answer and Nate what were some. examples of those swings well you may. remember that in the summer of 2016 that. Jim Comey at once exonerated Hillary. Clinton on the email server front but. then in the same press conference. scolded her conduct as you know. inappropriate and negligent and there. was actually a moment after that where. Donald Trump surged into a very brief. lead around the Republican convention. and then you know just a few weeks later. Donald Trump would do something. offensive that would blow blow it all up. um I remember for instance that at the.

Democratic Convention there was a gold. star parent who spoke on behalf of. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump spent a. week going after the parent of a soldier. who had died in Afghanistan right it. just seemed so shocking exactly then. Hillary Clinton would surge back into. the lead and as a result of this you. know sort of back and forth between good. news and bad news for these two deeply. disliked candidates the polls would. swing as well and a wide range of. possibil became pretty evident and there.

was no way to know until the election. which of those possibilities was where. the voters would land in the end so how. might we see that kind of volatility. play out this time around this time most. of the volatility is on the Biden side. as we mentioned Donald Trump's. favorability ratings are pretty solid at. this point unlike in 2016 Republicans. have mostly unified around him I'll. point out by the way that the Haley vote. is mostly voters who voted for Biden in. 2020 inter. so almost all of this swing can happen.

on the Democratic side and here again we. have this wide range of possibilities. right if it's really true that young. black latino also relatively moderate. Haley voters and so on that this group. of double haters is so negative on Joe. Biden that they'll vote for Donald Trump. trump could win a decisive Victory but. on the other hand if these voters are. reminded of why they voted for Joe Biden. four years ago reminded of the reasons. they don't like Donald Trump then you.

could get a very different outcome you. know there's been a phenomenon that. people have talked about called Trump. Amnesia where many voters have sort of. forgotten about many of the things that. led them to dislike Donald Trump so much. in the first place and it's worth. remembering what 2016 or 2020 was like. right I mean every week Donald Trump did. something that offended a new group of. Voters whether was women or Latino. voters or his handling of the black. lives matter Movement we haven't had. anything like that this cycle now maybe. that means that Donald Trump has become. a more effective politician that's maybe. that's what we'll learn or maybe it's.

just a matter of time that once the. campaign gets underway once the general. election begins that Donald Trump is. going to be in the news more he's going. defend voters yet again and even if he. doesn't the Joe Biden campaign can hope. to remind voters of the reasons why they. didn't like Donald Trump in the first. place and it's entirely possible that if. that plays out that if voters are. reminded of the reasons they dislike. Donald Trump as the election near that. this large group of Voters that voted. for Joe Biden last time that dislikes. him today will ultimately return to his. side because they dislike Donald Trump. even more and presumably all of this.

could really lead to a lot of swinging. back and forth in the polls this time. around right it could I mean it depends. on how the news plays out right I mean. to the 2016 example that volatility. required a very volatile news cycle that. led voters to swaying back and forth if. Donald Trump comes into the news one. week and says the most defensive thing. imaginable about Palestinians and black. and Latino voters maybe Joe Biden can. Surge and quickly reconsolidate these. voters and then if the very next week. Joe Biden has you know a moment where he.

doesn't look up to the job then maybe. those voters swing back right that's the. sort of case where you could see that. volatility but even if you don't see. that volatility in the polls the. underlying like instability of the. preference of Voters is still there. these are regardless of whether the. polls swing these are still voters. agonizing over a choice they don't want. to make and that still creates the basis. for the polls to swing regardless of. whether they actually do yeah so n what. about the ultimate outcome I mean what. lessons can we take from 2016 that might.

show us what this could look like in the. final vote tally in November well I. don't want 2016 to you know seem like. it's going to predict the outcome but. you know in the end in 2016 many of the. traditionally Republican voters who. dislike Donald Trump did return to his. side they didn't want to vote for him. they really didn't yeah but in the end. when they got into The Ballot Box they. voted for him and they did so because. they were Republican voters and they. couldn't in the end get around to voting. for it Democrat they disliked like. Hillary Clinton yeah and I think that.

for Joe Biden that's a pretty favorable. precedent you know just to take one. example from this poll more than 10% of. black Democrats who voted for Joe Biden. say they're going to vote for Donald. Trump wow now maybe they'll do that in. the end yeah but when they get into The. Ballot Box are voters like that really. going to vote for Donald Trump as. opposed to just saying it to a pller. with eight months ago I don't know but I. know that in 2016 that that's exactly. the kind of dynamic that didn't hold on. election day and those came back to. Donald Trump at the end they came back.

to their tribe right they did it took. all the way to the end but they did it. so to the extent that the polls today. would lead someone to believe that Joe. Biden can't win you know I think that. would be a mistake given the. characteristics of the voters who are. currently giving Donald Trump the lead. got it so the potential bright spot here. for Biden is that history tells us that. these voters do tend to come back to. their party but that it's not guaranteed. right it's a big if that's right and. that's especially true when sort of the. under Ling political conditions ought to. be favorable to the candidate hoping to.

coales their own party support I mean. this is an election Joe Biden should win. he's an incumbent president running for. re-election and the economy is healthy. enough usually you win under those. conditions and that's before considering. that your opponent is accused of. multiple federal crimes so the political. science seminar would tell us this is a. win for Biden yeah if this was a test in. some political science seminar class you. were given the conditions we've got. today and the nature of Joe Biden's. opponent you would say Joe Biden should. win this election and so you're hoping.

if you're the Biden campaign that those. underlying political conditions mean. that these voters are probably likelier. than not to come back to your side on. the other hand Biden's unusually weak he. has the lowest approval ratings of any. president seeking re-election at this. point in his term his age is an. extremely unusual factor that might. prove to just be disqualifying for a. certain share of Voters not exactly. something he can do anything about yes. so you have a president who has some of.

the lowest ratings on record who faces a. problem that would be very difficult for. him to address and we just don't know. whether that is something that will. prevent him from capitalizing on what. should be a favorable opportunity here. we've never seen anything like this. before so if I've learned nothing else. from this conversation Nate it is that. we are in for a very volatile very. unpredictable election it could be very. and it's definitely difficult to.

predict Nate thank you Sabrina thanks. for having. [Music]. me we'll be right. back here's what else you should know. today on Tuesday Senator Kiren Cinema of. Arizona said that she would not seek.

re-election ending more than a year of. speculation about her political future. Cinema has had a dramatic tenure in. Washington winning her seat as a. Democrat but then switching her party. affiliation to Independent in. 2022 she supported some parts of. President Biden's agenda but Democratic. activists had criticized what they said. was her eagerness to side with business. interests above Progressive causes her. decision to bow out of the race now sets.

up a more traditional matchup between. the eventual Republican and Democratic. nominees in a critical state that could. determine which party wins control of. the senate in. November and President Biden said that. talks on a possible 6-week ceasefire and. hostage release deal between Israel and. Hamas were quote in the hands of Hamas. right now he said negotiators were. racing to reach a deal before the. Islamic holy month of Ramadan which.

begins this weekend as a continued. Israeli Onslaught during the holiday. could further inflame Arab Israeli. tensions but later on Tuesday a senior. Hamas leader speaking in Lebanon. appeared to reject the deal insisting. that Israeli hostages would be released. only after a more permanent ceasefire. was in place and Israeli forces had. withdrawn from. Gaza today's episode was produced by Rob. zipco Mo zadii and Diana win with help.

from Michael Simon Johnson it was edited. by Rachel quer contains original music. by Diane Wong Marian Lozano and Dan. Powell and was engineered by Alyssa. Moxley our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben Lanser of. [Music]. wonderly. that's it for the daily I'm Sabrina.

Tavern see you. [Music]. tomorrow.