The U.S. Missile Stockpile Is Dangerously Low

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie. Kitroeff. [music] This is The Daily. >> [music]. >> A dire warning coming from some of the. nation's [music] top military. commanders. >> What is happening with these defensive. weapons? >> As the fighting with Iran has dragged on. and on, American forces have been. burning through [music] their weapons. >> Estimates show the US has used more than.

half of its stockpile for [music] some. weapon systems in the conflict with. Iran. >> Creating a shortage of munitions that's. leaving the United States and its allies. in the region much more vulnerable. >> I have real [music] concerns about our. defense industrial base and God forbid. we find ourselves in a lengthy, >> [music]. >> serious war and our ability to produce. what we need. >> Today, my colleague Eric Schmitt. explains why we're running out of key. missiles so quickly and how that [music]. could impact the safety of US troops and. the Trump administration's efforts to.

end the war. >> [music]. [music]. >> It's [music] Tuesday, August 11th. Eric, you told us very early on in the. war with Iran that we could start to.

have an issue with the limited supply of. certain munitions. It seems as though we. have now reached that point where this. is, in fact, a very real problem. So, just explain what's happening right now. >> Absolutely. So, what we've seen is since. the start of the war, there were. offensive missiles and defensive. missiles that were in short supply to. start with and they've been drained even. more so since the war has gone on. You. had offensive missiles like stealthy.

cruise missiles that the US was firing. at underground bunkers in Iran. You had. Tomahawk cruise missiles that were fired. off of ships and submarines. But what. we've seen both then and now are on the. defensive side. Uh these are the defensive systems that. help protect US troops in the region as. well as their allies. >> These are called interceptors, right? >> These are called interceptors. Patriot. interceptors are probably the most.

common people have heard of. Uh there's. also one called THAAD, which hits. targets even higher in the atmosphere. But the Patriots are the ones that are. really kind of the gold standard. And. they're basically missiles that are. aimed at hitting incoming missiles. If. you will, hitting a bullet with a bullet. to try and defeat, in this case, the. Iranian missiles that are being fired at. bases, at energy facilities in the. region, all sorts of targets the.

Iranians are aiming at. >> Hitting a bullet with a bullet sounds. really hard and complex. >> It is hard. I mean, these are very. fast-moving missiles. In some cases. they're approaching Mach 5. And so what. the United States has done, in fact, even though the interceptors they have. are quite good and quite advanced now, to be sure that they knock them down, the doctrine for the military has been. that you actually fire two of these. interceptors for every incoming missile. Just to ensure that you increase your.

chances of destroying, or at least. damaging, knocking off course these very. destructive missiles. >> Basically, you need a ton of these. From. what you're saying, you need double. whatever the enemy is firing at you. >> Yeah, if you have enough. I mean, that's. the plan is that you want to be able to. create a shield. Uh these Patriot. systems basically create a a radius. around them that they can defend, whether it's a city or a base or an oil. refinery or something like that, something valuable. >> And how many of these do we have left,

Eric? >> Well, the numbers are classified. The. military doesn't want to be telling. everybody what they've got left, but the. best estimates from our sources inside. the military are that they have. somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,700. left in the in the whole global arsenal. And that's after the US has burned. through about 1,500 of these since the. start of the war. So, just under half. overall. But again, even as major combat. has has lessened as the war has gone on.

and these episodic back-and-forth. exchanges between Iran and the United. States, the US is still going through. dozens in some cases of these weapons at. a time or in a given week. >> And just so I make sure I understand. this, you're saying we've burned through. 1,500 of these missiles already, which. is about half of the global stockpile? >> Roughly what they started with. That's. since February 28th when the war. started, uh that's approximately how.

many. interceptors Patriot interceptors the US. has gone through on its own. Now, allies. have gone through their own stockpiles. and countries like Bahrain and Kuwait. and Saudi Arabia, they have their own. Patriot systems and they too. are. you know, burning through their. munitions as they come under attack from. Iran. They want to be able to defend. their cities, their oil refinery, their. infrastructures, desalination plants, that kind of thing. But the common. denominator is they all need these.

interceptors that are quite valuable. right now and in short supply across the. board. >> Okay. How did we get to this point where. we are running out so quickly of. something that is that valuable, that is. that crucial? >> Well, you have to go back several years. actually, at least into the Biden. administration when the administration. starts supplying some of these munitions. including some Patriot interceptors to. Ukraine. >> Patriot missile defense system could.

soon be on its way from the US to. Ukraine to help. >> it fend off attacks from Russia. Now, many of these were older version Patriot. interceptors and were not the same kind. of munitions that the US [music] needed. in a war with Iran. But that's kind of. where it starts and then we move forward. when the US got into a shootout with the. Houthis. >> Mhm. The US and British military. striking back against the Iranian-backed. Houthi rebels for their continued. attacks against ships in the Red Sea. >> The the rebel group, the militant group.

in Yemen that had basically started. firing on ships in the Red Sea and that. led to a long 50-day campaign or so. where the [music] US carried out. numerous air strikes. >> US and British military air strikes. hitting 18 targets at eight locations in. Yemen including underground storage. facilities, [music]. weapons and even a helicopter. >> Going after their infrastructure, their. underground stockpiles and things like. that. But then you come into into last year.

and when things really start getting. tighter [music] and that is during the. 12-day war when Israel attacks Iran, the. Israelis are striking targets inside of. Iran, Iran is responding. >> [music]. >> and the US essentially comes to Israel's. aid and they're helping knock down a lot. of the incoming Iranian missiles. Israel. has its own air defenses of course, but. the US is helping with other kind of. systems. >> Right. This is what the sky looks like. over Tel Aviv [music] for the more than. 4 million people who live in that metro.

area as Israel's Iron Dome system race. to stop Iranian missiles and drones. [music] that you see here. >> And so all of these things taken. together are slowly but steadily wearing. down the stockpiles that [music] the. United States has. >> And this is before the Iran war even. starts. >> This is all before the big one, the Iran. war, starts on February 28th. And this is not a secret going into this. war. As we reported over the weekend, my.

colleagues and I, General Dan Kaine, the. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned President Trump that these levels. were already quite low. >> Hm. >> And that going into a major war, as a. war, any kind of conflict with Iran. would be, would be a serious problem. It. could be a serious problem. Now, the. president basically took in that. information, according to our sources, and said, "I'm going to go ahead with. this anyway, because I think this war. will be over quickly, and we can.

basically replenish those stockpiles at. a later time, after we take care of of. the Iranian regime." That proved to be a. serious misjudgment and miscalculation. >> Because obviously this has not been a. short and efficient war. >> No, obviously not. But as things kind of. ramped up again, these shortages really. became apparent. >> It also seems like the shortage may be. influencing the options that President. Trump has as he seeks to end the war on.

terms that are favorable to the United. States. >> Absolutely. And we reported this very. fact just 2 weeks ago after President. Trump. threatened to unleash a huge escalation. of bombing attacks against Iran. And so, as the president mulled over his options. just a couple of weeks ago, again, the. military went to him and said, "Look, if. you carry out this major strike, uh. you're going to.

run down these already depleted munition. levels even more, and maybe even exhaust. some, uh or close to exhausting some.". And so this was, as we reported, one of. the main factors in the president's. decision to pull back. There were. others, but that was a key factor. >> But Eric, during those first 38 days of. war, did we not, in the barrage of. attacks that you described, destroy. Iran's capacity to fight back with. missiles? I mean, we were told, right,

by the administration that the result of. those attacks had been to really make an. impact on Iran's capabilities. >> That's right. And in fact, Defense. Secretary Pete Hegseth said, just after. the ceasefire took effect in early. April, >> Iran has no air defenses. Iran has no air force. Iran has no navy. Their missiles, their missile launchers, and drones being destroyed or shot out. of the sky. Their missile volume is down. 90%. >> that Iran's ability to launch its.

missiles had been essentially. functionally destroyed. >> Right. >> Uh eliminated almost. >> And was that not true? >> Well, again, this proved to be another. fundamental miscalculation because the. two or three months after the April. ceasefire began, a couple of months, the. Iranians proved remarkably resilient and. also quite adept at digging out both. these bunkers that housed the remaining. missiles as well as the missile sites, some of which were mobile missiles. So,

they just had kind of scooted out of the. way of the oncoming American attack. But. they basically were able to use that. delay, use that time period of the. ceasefire to reconstitute. They've been. able to threaten, in some cases, actually carry out attacks on commercial. shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but. they've also been able to hit targets in. some of the neighboring countries, including American military bases. >> And what we've seen over and over is. that the Iranian side has just been. consistently able to adapt, including,

it sounds like, on this front. >> That's right. And this really comes from. lessons they learned in the last year or. so. After that 12-day war back in June, the Iranians really did their homework. They basically said, "We know another. attack will be coming. We're going to. decentralize much of our arsenal, of our. command structure, so it's not in all. one one place. It's not all in Tehran, for instance, the capital. It's spread. out, and we're going to have more. autonomy to regional commanders, so that. if one or two of a a section of the.

military around the country goes down, the others can fight on.". >> Mhm. >> Another example of Iran's adaptation to. the to the current conflict is the way. the tactics they're using and the kind. of missiles they're firing. The way the. Iranians are attacking, they do a. barrage of a combination of drones, slower-moving cruise missiles, and some. of these very fast-moving ballistic. missiles. And the whole idea here is to. see initially, can you overwhelm a.

particular site's defenses, whether it's. a base or a refinery or whatever, cuz. there's just so much coming at them. The. other thing the Iranians have are. specific ballistic missiles. Uh these. are missiles that basically launch way. up high, and they come up all the way up. into space, and they come back down. again. But rather than just following. one trajectory in which an air defense. could lock onto and blast down with a. one of these interceptors, they've been. developing over the last year or so, a.

maneuverable missile, at least a. maneuverable warhead. That is, so as it. starts coming back down toward a target, and the defenses are locked onto what. they think will be a kill, suddenly the. incoming missile, you know, swerves, and. it goes in a different direction. >> Sounds like a running back in football. juking a defender. >> Exactly. Exactly. And so, if you can. imagine a whole swarm of these things. suddenly coming down, they looks like. they're all coming down together at. once, and then they all going to zig and. zag in different directions. That's.

going to just, you know, oh my god, you. look at that and go, "Okay, your. defenses have really got to be, you. know, top rate to to knock these things. down." And remember again, the US. doctrine has been you you use at least. two, sometimes even three of these. interceptors to go after these incoming. missiles. Well, you can just see if it's. a major attack, you're going to burn. through a whole bunch of these. interceptors in that one particular. assault. >> Mhm. >> And that's what the Iranians, you know, have been able to do in a couple of.

specific instances. And as they look at. carrying out attacks, they also change. things up as if they're trying to. use different speeds, different. trajectories, as if they're trying to. zero in on weaknesses and. vulnerabilities in the air defenses. So, in some cases, including a particular. base in Jordan, they attacked it, uh, you know, more than four times, uh, just trying to figure out, you know, where was the most vulnerable place that. they could possibly come into and and. carry out a strike.

>> Right. >> So, it shows on their end, even with. their limited resources, they're looking. for strategic targets to hit. Ones that. if they're successful, you know, again, all they have to do is. have one lucky hit, if you think of it. that way, whereas the Americans have to. be able to defend against everything to. be completely successful. >> Yeah, if it's your job to defend those. strategic targets, it's hard enough to. hit a bullet with a bullet, to say. nothing of a swerving bullet. The math. there. >> That's right. >> balloons pretty quickly. I mean, you. need a ton of interceptors in that case,

because if even one gets through, you're. in trouble. >> That's right. And so, the. the Americans adapt. You can either. shrink the area that you are defending. and basically leave some areas that are. less valuable unprotected. But this one. base in Jordan that had been coming. under attack, sadly, uh, tragically, on. in the evening of July 16th and. overnight into the 17th, one of these. missiles slipped through. Uh and it hit. some housing units and killed three.

American soldiers and wounded over a. hundred and did a lot of damage to other. uh facilities on the base as well. And. there were other strikes. We later. learned that same week that it hit uh. two other bases in Jordan that housed. American troops and and equipment. So, they'd really focused the Iranians had. in that third week of July on several. bases uh in Jordan that were receiving. troops. Again, remember this is a time. when the president is talking about.

escalating attacks. So, troops were. coming in, you know, additional aircraft. were flying in. It was a time when the. Iranians basically said, "We're going to. go after this very important base in. Jordan." And they were successful in. this one case. >> And what that uniquely devastating. attack in Jordan demonstrates is that. Iran can still be very effective, even. if the US does everything it can in its. own defense. >> That's right. The attack on Jordan was. important for several reasons.

Obviously, it was tragic. This was the. first US service members to die since. early in the war. It once again showed. that this war, which still hadn't ended. by the way, this war that Trump had said. would run four to six weeks, suddenly. we're hearing about Americans killed and. being wounded in the attack. And it puts. uh you know, it puts the administration. a really tricky position. Now, they're. again having to defend this war that's. gone on much longer than the president. originally said it would. It's enraging.

the American public. [music] It's. undermined confidence among regional. allies who thought they could rely on. the United States, you know, to protect. them against this kind of a threat. So, it's all of a sudden, this kind of. confluence of events from this one. deadly strike [music]. really begins to, you know, cause. serious problems for the administration. as it tries to [music] address the. question of how do we wind this war down. and finding there's no easy solutions, no easy pathways. [music].

>> [music]. >> We'll be right back. So, Eric, how are the White House and. the Pentagon reacting to this moment, to. the very tricky position that they're. in?

>> Well, President Trump's initial reaction. is he is outraged at these published. reports in the Times and other news. organizations. The White House and. Pentagon spokesman basically deny that. there's any kind of shortage, that they. got plenty of munitions to do whatever. the president orders the military to do. But privately, we learn and report that. the president is so mad that he orders a. leak investigation into our story and at. a meeting at Camp David, he berates Pete.

Hegseth, the defense secretary, and his. deputy Steve Feinberg for basically what. we report is that he's misled them on. how bad the munitions situation is. And this caused a huge uproar inside the. administration because Secretary Hegseth. has in public testimony to Congress and. public statements basically said, "We've. got this under control. We've got this.". When in reality, he doesn't. >> There is a logical question, I feel. like, implicit in Trump's anger here,

which is why don't we have a bigger. stockpile of these weapons? >> Well, it's a really good question and. it's one we've been asking, our editors. have been asking us to answer for. readers and viewers and listeners as. well. >> Oh god, sorry to pile on. >> Yeah, right. But it's basically a. problem that dates back several. administrations, both Democrat and. Republican. And part of it was just not. catching up on the threat, still being. caught in this post-9/11. counterterrorism world where you're not. thinking about enemies loaded up with.

missiles that could launch in large. numbers. There was obviously concern. about threats coming from North Korea. and other countries, but nobody really. anticipated the kind of back-and-forth. exchanges that we've seen in Russia and. Ukraine or that we've now seen between. the United States and Iran. And they. were caught flat-footed, basically. >> It sounds like you're saying we thought. we'd moved on from traditional wars, but. it turns out we very much have not. So,

now that we're in this position, what. can the US do to build a stockpile back. up? >> Well, the problem is just to make a. Patriot missile, it takes about 2 years. And you say, "Well, how can that be? How. hard can it be to make a missile?" Well, the problem is it's all the components. that make up a missile. The Patriot. missile is made up of all sorts of. different components of engines and. casings and the warhead, and all these. are made by different contractors and. subcontractors. By some estimate, it.

takes maybe several dozen of these. suppliers to come together. >> Yikes. >> and increase what they're doing in order. to produce more Patriots. If you want. them to do that, many of them have to go. out and they have to increase the size. of their factories or build new. factories altogether. >> Hm. >> You need to train more people. That. takes weeks if not months to do. And so, it just takes a long time for some of. these very, as the military calls them, exquisite weapons. The Pentagon is. trying to crunch down this time, but.

this is one of the other problems. Defense contractors are basically. saying, "We understand that there's a. need for more of these, but we need to. actually draw up the contracts to do. this. >> Right. The US can't just make these. companies do this. You can't just fire. up the factories if you're the DOD. We're not China. We don't have that kind. of industrial control over these. contractors. >> That's right. And so, for instance, earlier in the year, the Pentagon struck. an agreement in principle with Lockheed.

Martin, which assembles Patriot. missiles, to basically triple production. of these interceptors. They're making. around 600 a year now, and they were. going to probably make up around 2,000. or so by the year 2030. The problem is, you need money to pay. for this. >> Mhm. >> And as the defense contractor say, "We're not going to do this for free. We're not going to front the money. You. got to get it from Congress." Well, the. Pentagon has gone before the Congress. and asked for a record 1.5. trillion-dollar.

>> Mhm. >> defense budget and additional spending. to pay for things like this. And so far, Congress hasn't done it. At a time when. the war just isn't going very well. >> Mhm. >> That's part of his problem. He's going. up there and asking for a record budget, and the lawmakers are saying, "Well, wait a minute. You're asking for more. money to do what? So you can carry out. more of what they consider to be a. failed war?". >> This may be a naive question, but can we. buy these from other countries that have. them? >> Well, some of these very specialized.

munitions, like interceptors, are. proprietary. >> Mhm. >> The United States has only allowed. licenses for Japan and Germany to make. these Patriot interceptors, as well. So, it's not like you can just go out and. find somebody else to make these things. And so, it's very difficult to expand. the production side. There's one place, you know, that Lockheed Martin has a. plant in Arkansas that basically. assembles all these things right now for. Patriot interceptors. >> So, it's trying to supercharge. this industrial base. And by the way,

it's an industrial base that's changing. very quickly. To digress for a second, you remember a. couple years ago everybody was worried. about artillery shells in the war with. Ukraine. And now we've gone well past. that and everybody's talking about. interceptors against ballistic missiles. >> Yeah. >> So that's the other thing that's the. uncertainty about what kinds of weapons. will modern warfare require moving. forward. >> Right. And if it's really difficult to. predict what's going to be in high. demand in even a few months or a few. years, it becomes even harder to commit.

all that investment that it takes to. supercharge production. >> That's right. They've got shareholders. they have to satisfy and they need to. have certainty and that's why they want. these multi-year contracts basically to. lock in some certainty on their end that. if they build these things the Pentagon. will buy them. >> You know, it strikes me that we have. these weapons that everyone wants. We've. cornered the market on them. There's. this one place that makes them in the. United States. But our strength is kind.

of our Achilles' heel right now because. while we've designed a whole war. strategy around them and the ability to. use them, now that we're running out, we're in a lot of trouble because we. just can't make them that quickly and no. one else can either. >> Right. And that's what's spurring other. countries and even companies here in the. United States can we come up with a. cheaper alternative that can be produced. more quickly. Maybe it isn't as capable. as the most advanced Patriot interceptor. missile, but maybe it's something that. will make do for now. So there's a.

scramble on because there's a worldwide. shortage of these missiles and the. threat's not going away. It's. increasing. >> Can I just say what I think a lot of. people might be thinking when they hear. this, which is. it seems very bad and scary that we are. so reliant on things that are extremely. difficult to build quickly and that we. need for this war. Has anybody wondered. about that before? Am I the very first. one? >> No, it's one of the fundamental.

questions here. I think there was an. assumption, obviously a misjudgment, that the US had time to make these. adjustments. People recognize there was. a problem here. People recognize there. were shortages, and they were moving in. a direction of certain solutions. It's. just suddenly they're overwhelmed by the. events of the real world. You've got two. major wars and some other hot conflicts, too, that burn up a lot and before you. know it, in a matter of months, the.

cupboard's basically bare for some of. these key munitions, and there's no. quick and easy way to replenish them. >> So, where does that leave us, Eric? You've made it very clear that as this. war drags on, we are becoming vulnerable. in this conflict with Iran in the Middle. East in general. What about much more. advanced adversaries, militarily. speaking? I'm thinking of China and. Russia. >> Well, exactly. My colleagues and I just. over the weekend reported this is one of. the real big concerns at the Pentagon,

that the draining of this global supply. of munitions has forced the Pentagon to. rush a lot of the bombs and missiles and. other hardware to the Middle East from. military commands in Asia and Europe. And these drawdowns from those commands. have left them less ready to confront. potential adversaries like Russia and. China, who are watching this very. closely. I mean, they're reading about. it in real time, and their intelligence.

services certainly have been tracking. this for a while. >> Right. >> And so, it creates a greater risk that. China says, "Maybe we should try and. seize Taiwan. The Americans may not be. as capable because they've had to divert. so much of their firepower from the. Pacific to the Middle East." Or maybe. Vladimir Putin in Moscow says, "Hmm, maybe now is the time that I make a push. in Eastern Europe or the Baltics now. that the US is maybe a little bit less.

formidable.". >> Because what we've done is literally. steal munitions from other bases. We've. robbed Peter to pay Paul in order to. make this war possible. >> Yes, that's correct. The Pentagon has. basically said the fight against Iran is. really the top priority. And even if it. means assuming more risk, we'll just. have to deal with that later cuz we've. got a fight right now right in front of. us that we have to deal with. immediately. And we don't like having to do this. The.

commanders out in those regions are. upset about it. They say this privately, of course. They can't come out publicly. and complain. But certainly they've made. it clear to me and my colleagues who. report on this, they feel this is a very. serious situation. >> You know, we've been talking a lot. during this war about how effectively. Iran has exploited the world's economic. vulnerability to the Strait of Hormuz in. shipping. What you're describing is Iran. exploiting a military vulnerability that.

the United States has. It knows that if. it wears down our supply of these. missiles, it can gain an advantage. >> That's right. And it's the two things. coming together now. How the Iranians. are being able to continue to exploit. their economic advantage over the Strait. of Hormuz at the same time that they're. realizing they now have found these. vulnerabilities and can exploit some of. the security gaps that the United States. has. Whether it's the physical gaps in. the coverage by the air defenses or back.

home in the industrial base and its lack. of ability to send more supplies. forward. And the Iranians know all this. as they try and reach a final settlement. to end this war. >> It's almost like Iran is watching and. taking note of its leverage expanding in. real time. >> That's right. And you see them as they. increase their ask, their requests from. President Trump.

Just as recently as this weekend, pressing for more. They see the. advantage now. >> [music]. >> They recognize President Trump is eager. to make a deal and they are pressing for. as much as they can get right now, understanding that they have this. leverage over the United States. >> [music]. >> Well, Eric, thanks so much for coming on. the show again. [music]. >> Thank you, Natalie.

>> [music]. >> We'll be right back. >> [music]. >> Here's what else you need to know today. >> I'm delighted to be here in the Oval. Office as our administration takes. another historic step in our mission to. make America healthy again. >> For the third time [music] in less than. a year, President Trump issued an. executive order calling for children to. be routinely immunized against [music].

fewer diseases. The order embraces a revised schedule. that recommends vaccinating children. against 11 diseases rather than the 17. that are currently recommended [music]. by the Centers for Disease Control and. Prevention. >> There's a reason for such. >> [music]. >> epidemic rates of autism. And we're going to bring it back to much. closer. to where it was. [music]. >> Speaking to reporters in the Oval. Office, Trump said that he was motivated. in part by the worry that [music]. vaccines were tied to autism, even.

though dozens of studies have found no. link between the two. The president also took issue with the. volume of shots given to children. >> They have [music] a vaccination that. looks like size of a a bottle of soda. poured into. a little child's. >> [music]. >> body. >> Most shots, though, contain no more than. 1/10 [music] of a teaspoon. Today's episode was produced by Michael.

Simon [music] Johnson and Chris. Benderev. It was edited by Chris Hackel. with help from Paige Cowett and contains. music by Dan Powell and Diane [music]. Wall. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa. [music] Moxley. >> [music]. >> That's it for The Daily. I'm Natalie. Kitroeff. [music]. See you tomorrow.