The Threat of a Wider War in the Middle East

from The New York Times I'm Katherine. benold in for Sabrina tanesi this is the. [Music]. daily a recent string of attacks across. the Middle East has raised concerns that. the war between Hamas and Israel is. spreading and might put pressure on. other countries like Iran and the United. States to get more. involved today my colleague Eric Schmidt.

on the risk that the conflict is. becoming an even wider War and the. efforts underway to prevent. that it's Thursday January. 11th Eric welcome back to the show thank. you very much from the moment that Hamas. attacked Israel on October 7th and. Israel responded in Gaza the United. States has been very concerned about an. escalation of this war into the region.

and in the last few weeks there have. been a series of strikes and counter. strikes in different parts of the Middle. East and in the Red Sea and so I come to. you Eric as our national security. correspondent to ask is this the moment. this conflict is turning into that wider. Regional war that we've all been. worrying about well Katrina I think. you're right this is a moment of of. concern ever since the October 7th. attacks in Israel the bid Administration. has been relentlessly focused not only. on responding to that war but.

specifically on how to avoid having the. war widened Beyond Gaza the president. himself and his top AIDS feel that a. wider war in this region would be an. economic disaster a security catastrophe. and would be very damaging going into an. election year to have that kind of. conflict running particularly one in. which it' be hard to see how it' be. contained so from the very beginning the. president ordered the first of what.

became two aircraft carriers and doubled. the number of American strike aircraft. in the region basically to warn off. anybody else who would try and take. advantage and try and widen the conflict. in the region so let's unpack some of. this it's messy talk us through these. recent events Eric what has happened. Beyond Israel and Gaza yeah I think all. you have to really do is look kind of. the events of the last 10 days or so to. really underscore this concern about a. wider Regional in the Middle East and.

first off I think it's important to lay. out that one reason the events of the. last few weeks are concerning to us. officials is because most of them are. tied to Iran in some way and the concern. here is that Iran may not want to get. directly involved but has all these. proxies that it'll activate in Lebanon. in Iraq in Syria in Yemen. itself so for instance tonight a senior. Hamas leader is Dead amid serious. concerns the war in the Middle East is. about to get bigger on January 2nd the.

deputy leader of Hamas Sal alari and two. leaders of its armed Wing were killed in. an explosion in a suburb of beut Lebanon. Israel was responsible for the attacks. according to us and Western officials. who does it benefit it benefits the. Israelis to kill him and they did so. almost certainly hard to imagine anybody. else this is significant in a couple of. ways one is Israel's fight against Hamas. it goes outside of God itself and.

they're reaching into Lebanon but more. significantly it's on the home turf of. hisbah which is the largest and most. formidable proxy that Iran has in the. region it's been financed and equipped. by Iran for years and years and it's a. very much of a concern there in a. statement released by Hezbollah it says. its hand is on the trigger so that's. kind of the first thing the second thing. is the US military killed a high ranking. Iraqi militia leader in Baghdad today. you have a Myer serious explosion in.

Iraq the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign. Affairs has condemned the bombings they. say on January 4th it turns out a US. Special Operations drone killed a senior. figure in an Iran link militant group. that is actually part of Iraq's security. operatus there say the ministry quote. reserves its right to take a Firm Stance. and all necessary measures to deter. anyone who tries to harm its territory. but American officials defended the. strike as a self-defense attack against. a key Commander in this militia that has.

carried out more than 120 attacks. against US troops inside of Iraq and. Syria since the October 7th assault so. this is very much of a concern for. American officials there for their own. Personnel Hezbollah is claiming a top. Commander has been killed in an Israeli. air strike in beay then on January 8th. you have a strike in southern Lebanon. again in hezbollah's stronghold kills a. Rodan Force Commander this is a a strike.

that's been carried out by Israeli. strike aircraft clearly the Israelis are. deliberately trying to send a message to. Hezbollah that they are in no mood to be. messed around on the border they no and. basically this is kind of the latest in. a series of back and forth crossb. attacks between Lebanese Hezbollah and. Israel that the United States is very. concerned could turn into a much wider. campaign today that Hezbollah could ramp. up their strikes against Northern Israel.

following this strike that took place. this morning I think at the moment with. tensions as they are it's more likely. that things will flare. up and this Rodan force is basically the. military the sort of most elite military. wing of hisbah that's right and they're. right up on you know the border and this. is a big concern for Israel because. Israel has had to evacuate tens of. thousands of resid res in the northern.

part of the country because that. territory is coming under consistent. rocket missile attacks from Hezbollah. wow and even before October 7th this was. the area that Israel and the United. States frankly were most concerned about. so once you have the October 7th attacks. once you have Iran activating its. proxies Israel of course is very. concerned that the next step might be. some kind of retaliation by Hezbollah so. far that has not happened and. intelligence sources indicate that.

hisbah does not want to get engage in a. wider War but this escalation that we've. seen of crossb attacks could lead to a. miscalculation could lead to one side or. the other deciding they have to go. forward and that could basically engulf. that part of the country in a second. front in the last area where we've seen. a lot of activity is in the Red. Sea hoi militants have launched 25. attacks on commercial ships since mid.

November including one today this is. this key Waterway where 12% of the. world's Commerce flows through it and. what you've had since the October 7th. assault is houthi rebels in Yemen have. launched a series of attack drones. missiles and Rockets at commercial. shipping basically saying and vowing to. continue these attacks against uh. commercial shipping until Israel. withdraws from Gaza and ends the war. there this has had a Dr dramatic impact.

on the shipping lanes were five the. world's largest shipping companies have. announced their suspending sailings. through the root well the houthis say. they're targeting Israel bound ships but. experts say they're firing. indiscriminately so what you have here. is the a houthis which are another one. of these proxies launching a series of. attacks the most recent of which came on. Tuesday night is Iranian backed houthi. Rebels have carried out their largest. attack so far on shipping lanes the. ministry of Defense says a British.

warship and US warships fought them off. and this was significant because just. last week the US and its allies have. warned the group to stop or face. potential military action the United. States and a dozen other countries. basically gave the houthis an ultimatum. cease and desist these kind of attacks. or else was kind of the ultimatum now. the Coalition did not specifically. mention military strikes but our. reporting indicates the Pentagon has.

been drafting Target lists of houy radar. sites and Mell storage areas and all. sorts of things should President Biden. and some of the other Coalition. countries that are involved here decide. that they want to launch retaliatory. [Music]. strikes in the meantime the United. States has led an effort to create a. maritime security Force these are ships. that are specifically designed to knock. down these attacks that are coming in.

from the houthis and they've been by and. large relatively successful the houthis. have seized one container ship and still. hold it in the Red Sea but you now have. a coalition of more than 20 countries. operating ships in the Red Sea and. sometimes escorting commercial vessels. through the Waterway to allow them to. reach their destination okay so it. really does sound like the answer to. that earlier question I asked about a. Wier war is this it is yes it feels like. things really spread in the way that.

people feared when the war first started. well again it's certainly a central. worry for President Biden and his top. AIDS in Washington and for other Allied. officials who are involved in this. conflict and it's a central concern for. the US Secretary of State Anthony. blinkin who is currently in the region. on his fourth official visit there since. the war. started but despite these incidents and. this kind of stacking up that we saw so. ominously in the last 10 days or so. there are some kind of large forces at.

work that may keep these incidents from. spiraling out of. [Music]. control we'll be right. back so Eric you mentioned some big. forces that are keeping this conflict. from spinning out of control walk me.

through those so there are at least two. factors one of them is the news from. earlier this week Israel announcing that. it plans to wind down some of its. intensive operations in Gaza and. particularly in Northern Gaza by the end. of January but what does scaling back. actually mean exactly given that they. just killed a hisbah leader right so. what it means in Gaz at least is you. would see if this actually happens a. lessening of this massive aerial. bombardment. that Israel has conducted particularly.

in the Northern parts of Gaza and you. would see much more targeted raids by. Special Operations forces going after. Hamas leaders specific operations going. after the tunnel Network that's still. there this is something that they have. told American officials and they've. announced publicly just as early as this. week now interesting enough the Israeli. officials are really giving two messages. there's one message to the International. Community that's what we just talked. about how they're going to be ramping.

down some of these heavier operations. particularly in the north that's to. basically assuage some of the. international community's concerns about. the loss of life you more than 23,000. civilians who've been killed there but. there's a very different message that. these same leaders are giving to the. Israeli public and that is the war is. not going to end this is going to go on. for months if not years we are going to. track hunt down and capture all the. leaders responsible for the October 7th. attack and will do whatever is necessary.

to restore security to the country and. reestablish deterrence in this area so. it's really a twin focused dual messages. one for the International Community one. for the domestic Israeli audience got it. so how do you explain this dual. messaging Eric well I think it's the. Netanyahu government obviously. responding to the heavy criticism and. the pressure from the United States and. other governments with the growing. number of Civilian casualties it's just. untenable and the pressures that those. governments are facing back home to.

continue their support of Israel at the. same time you have Israeli Prime. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanting to. signal that you know we're not scaling. back on the larger ambition to eradicate. this terrorist organization that was. responsible for the attacks nor are we. are giving up on recovering all the. hostages you said that there were two. factors what's the second element here. that might slow down or stop an outright. Regional War breaking out so the second. one is actually kind of paradoxical but. it's Iran itself Iran wants this kind of.

chaos but it wants a kind of Controlled. Chaos or a controlled escalation it is. the Puppet Master for most of these. proxies that it's supported and equipped. over the years but it's also in Iran's. interest and they've made this fairly. clear that it doesn't want the conflicts. to spin out of control and then you know. drag either its principal proxy hbol. into war or even worse engulf Iran in a. direct conflict with the United States. or Israel itself why not well I think.

this has a lot to do with the Iranian. government's popularity or lack thereof. and the weakness domestically I mean one. of the things we haven't talked about. was in the midst of this series of. events that happened the last 10 days. there were twin explosions at a. commemoration ceremony for the death of. a very top Iranian General General. sulamani this killed more than a 100. people in this procession in a city in. Iran immediately there were some. suspicion that that Israel might be.

behind it but in the end it turned out. to be an arm of the Islamic State this. was actually a terrorist strike that. kind of revealed perhaps some of this. deficiencies in the domestic security. apparatus inside of Iran that they. couldn't protect their own people. against one of the worst domestic. terrorist attacks in Iran's history so. this idea of Controlled Chaos that you. mentioned basically means that Iran. wants to make life difficult for Israel. and the us but it doesn't want a. regional War because that would pose an.

existential risk to the regime it's. basically about survival that's right. you know they've don't want Hezbollah. dragged into another very costly War. like they were in 2006 that ultimately. could force Iran's hand to have to. support them could drag the United. States in to support Israel and. something like that so you know these. factors that Iran can't totally control. that could heat this war up and I think. most immediately besides what we we see. in Lebanon and Hezbollah is this.

potential conflict with the houthis. because that is the proxy that the. Iranians have the least amount of. operational control over so basically. all of this adds up to a situation with. a lot of uncertainty including how much. control Iran has over its proxies and. perhaps also how much control the US has. in the mix here that's right and if you. look at some specific examples this is. where the concern really lies in. miscalculations in one form or another. that people can't necessarily ICT. another factor that keeps the White.

House up at night and they really don't. like to talk about it very much is what. happens if American Service members are. killed as I mentioned before there have. been over 60 that have been injured at. least one critically in these rocket and. drone and missile attacks that the. militias have fired at troops in Iraq. and Syria but there have been a number. of close calls that the Pentagon has not. wanted to talk about at all there was. one instance where a missile landed in a. barracks and it failed to EXP explode. had it done so it probably would have.

killed a dozen or more troops that were. there there have been a couple of other. instances like this just by sheer luck. that some of these attacks which aren't. necessarily always the most precisely. targeted by these militias could have. killed American forces on the ground and. if that were to happen that would. immediately put pressure on President. Biden to respond not just perhaps to the. proxies who actually carried out these. strikes but perhaps against Iran itself.

for providing the equipment the supplies. perhaps even the intelligence that. enable those strikes to happen but as. you said the US is also sending more. troops and warships to the region so it. could be creating a scenario where. they're increasingly making themselves. Targets in this well perhaps but the. Administration has been very clear that. the the additional ships the two. aircraft carriers one of which has since. left been replaced by some Marine ships. as well as twice the number of attack.

aircraft that have been sent to the. Middle East in the Persian Gulf region. since October 7th those are there as a. deterrent and by all accounts that. deterrent has worked it's worked at. least so far Iran has gotten the message. and has tried to calibrate its responses. through its proxies but as you say as. you have more troops in in the area. particularly ships and planes those are. more targets so Eric the jury is still. out on whether this will turn into a. full-blown Regional War but from.

everything you've said it's already. pretty clear that this war and its. Ripple effects are reshaping the Middle. East yes I think that's right we've seen. after years of being an international. Pariah Iran is reasserting itself it's. obviously the center of this post. October 7th conflict and managing its. proxies in the. region you have the United States being. drawn back into the Middle East after. for years trying to kind of wind down.

after the long wars in Afghanistan and. Iraq and pivot to the Indo. Pacific and you have Israel trying to. obviously. reestablish security for its population. and deterrence in the region after this. historic attack you have efforts I think. on all sides the US side even the. Iranian side the Israeli side to try and. contain this but there could be. miscalculations that lead any one of. those actors down a road in one that. they're not planning on that they don't.

desire that could drag them and the. other actors in the Middle East into a. much wider. conflict thank you very much Eric thank. [Music]. you on Wednesday after American and. British warships intercepted the latest. barrage of drones and missiles fired by. hthy rebels at commercial ships in the. Red Sea Secretary of State Anthony. blinkin warned that the US and its. allies would respond we've made clear.

we've been clear with uh more than 20. other countries that if this continued. as it did yesterday there will be. consequences and I'm going to leave it. at that the attack one of the largest. staged by the houthi since October 7th. came a week after the us-led Coalition. gave an ultimatum to the rebels to seize. their near- daily attacks or face. retaliation we'll be right.

back here's what else you need to know. today on Wednesday President Biden's son. Hunter Biden surprised Republicans on. the house oversight committee when he. briefly appeared in the hearing room. where a vote to hold him in contempt of. congress for failing to sit for a. private deposition was about to take. place Hunter Biden has repeatedly. offered to testify publicly before the. committee which is leading an. impeachment inquiry into President Biden.

but he has refused to be interviewed. behind closed doors his appearance. infuriated several Republicans on the. committee including Republican. representative Nancy Mace of South. Carolina who addressed Hunter Biden. directly you are the epitome of white. privilege coming into the oversight. committee spitting in our face ignoring. a congressional subpoena to be deposed. what are you afraid of you have her. remarks Drew rebuke from a Democrat on. the committee representative Jared.

moscovitz of Florida who replied that. Hunter Biden would be happy to testify. so long as it wasn't public Mr chairman. point of inquiry Mr chairman um the L. recogniz the G if the general lady wants. to hear from Hunter Biden we can hear. from him right now Mr chairman let's. take a vote and hear from Hunter Biden. what are you afraid. of and after former Governor Chris. Christie of New Jersey suspended his. presidential campaign two of the. remaining Republican candidates Ronda.

santz and Nikki Haley clashed during the. last debate before the Iowa caucuses. we're going to find out tonight that. there's going to be a lot of Ron's lies. that have happened there are at least a. couple of dozen so far that he's done so. what we're going to do is rather than. have him go and tell you all these lies. you can go to danis lies.com but every. well miss Haley called Mr desant as a. liar he described her as a liberal in. conservative clothing who could not be. trusted with the values of the. Republican Party Nikki Haley is.

basically a carbon copy of what Biden is. the difference Donald Trump who is also. competing for the Republican nomination. appeared at the same time in a town hall. on Fox News and announced that he had. made his decision on a running mate. though when asked who it was he did not. give a. name today's episode was produced by. Sydney Harper ASA chaturv summer tomat. and Diana win it was edited by ptia. willins and Michael benois contains.

original music by Dan Powell and will. Reed and was engineered by Chris Wood. our theme music is by Jim brunberg and. Ben lansberg of. [Music]. Wy that's it for the daily I'm Katherine. benold see you. tomorrow. [Music].