The Race That Could Tip Control of the Senate

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily yesterday we explained how control. of the house has come down to a few. races in two blue States today my. colleague veteran Congressional reporter. Carl Hol on the Senate where control. could be decided by a single state.

[Music]. Montana it's Wednesday October. [Music]. 16th Carl nice to see you good to be. seen so Carl you've been reporting on. the Senate and who will control the. Senate after this very important. election and Democrats of course now. control it you're going to tell me by. how much they control it they contr at.

5149 and that is a very close margin. okay extremely close so won't take much. to knock them off of that give us a lay. of the land in terms of these races this. is a very tough map for Democrats one of. the toughest they've had in a while two. seats would knock them out one of those. seats is already lost West Virginia. where Joe Mansion decided not to run. again and they've pretty much already. surrendered to the Republicans at the.

start of the cycle they were looking at. really difficult races and were worried. about Nevada Arizona Michigan and Ohio. but at the moment the Democratic. incumbents are running ahead of the. Republicans in all those races and so. that has come to put the focus on. Montana so both parties are focused on. Montana why Montana in particular yeah. it's not a state that often figures into. the national political debate but this. is probably The Tipping Point Race.

that's going to decide control of the. Senate so you have John tester who is a. dirt farmer in Montana uh as he would. describe himself he runs for reelection. as someone who can still be a Democrat. and win in a rural state where Donald. Trump is going to win easily and. Republicans have handpicked a challenger. to Mr tester a guy named Tim sheii a. veteran and a businessman and every one.

sees this as the race that is going to. decide control of the Senate got it okay. so incredibly important race tell me. about tester I mean I know he's a. moderate Democrat but that's kind of. where my knowledge stops tell me about. him he was elected in 2006 upset a. republican incumbent but Democrats used. to be able to do that in States like. Montana and he is running for his fourth. term he's a big guy still a farmer. himself he f famously lost I believe.

it's three fingers in a meat grinder. accident o but that's part of his. authenticity he celebrates that as proof. that he's the genuine article as a. farmer he is somebody who tries to speak. for Rural America in the Senate and he. tends to push back against the. Democratic party he has not endorsed. vice president Harris in the. presidential race he's trying to keep. that race out there local rather than.

nationalized very difficult to do and on. some issues he has voted with. Republicans and I I'm thinking right now. of a policy water use and how water is. regulated and he has joined with. Republicans on that kind of issue so he. has differentiated himself but it is. hard when you're in the Senate. especially a narrowly divided Senate. where you have to help your party so he. votes with the Democrats on a lot of the. big issues right but in Montana He has. remained popular you know he is seen as.

one of them and that's the image he. tries to cultivate he likes to see. himself as authentic Montana and. different from the Democrats in. Washington and why is tester so at risk. well Montana is. changing the state of Montana grew by. more than 6% since 2010 the population. now at 1 million 50,000 people Montana. has been a magnet for people looking to.

relocate in the West Yellowstone County. holds a solid number one spot at. 158,000 what has happened is that. affluent people have moved into Montana. bought up huge chunks of property and it. it's driven up the cost of housing. considerably you know you think the hot. housing market you think I don't know uh. you know Silicon Valley where the homes. are way overpriced anyway in California. but you don't think Billings Mont do you.

7. $800,000 for a house is probably not out. of consideration and a lot of people pay. millions and millions IND you got to ask. yourself what is it about Billings that. gets top. billing and it's made it really hard for. normal people Montana has faced this new. crisis of housing affordability taxes. become very expensive to live there for. everyday people and I'm sure people have. seen Yellowstone the uh Kevin Ker's d.

that's on TV is this your. land. incredible I didn't uh catch your name. that's cuz I didn't offer it you know. this is the fight of Yellowstone repeat. what I. say I'm going back to California I'm. going back to California Montana doesn't. want you Montana doesn't want me I'm D. coming back I swear.

okay so who's moving in you have people. who've moved there for all sorts of. reasons so you have people who During. the covid period may have moved to. Montana to have the wide open spaces and. they're sticking around right you have. uh affluent techie type people who have. the money to come in and buy you know a. 10,000 acre ranch and setup shop there. and you have people who are looking for. a place where they can uh be.

like-minded people very conservative. people maybe moving from a place like. say Colorado they're in a mountain state. but Colorado is a state that's gone uh. Democratic they want to get back to a. state that is uh more Republican so lots. of different reasons for people moving. in but they are more Republican than. Democratic and it's interesting because. this is in some ways flipping the script. right usually it's kind of coastal. Elites who are Democrats moving into. conservative places and making it less. conservative but this is the opposite.

yeah in some ways Montana is just the. flip side of a lot of these arguments. that would be made elsewhere so all of. these people moving in population is. booming in Montana for all sorts of. different reasons and that is changing. the political makeup of the state right. the map is changing the demographics are. changing and Tim sheii the Republican. running against John tester is part of. that change he is a Minnesota native a. Navy SEAL a combat V veteran he moved to.

the state to start a business he's. bought a ranch he's raising his family. homeschooling his four children there I. believe and he has a business that is. important in the west he's got a aerial. firefighting business to help put out. Wildland fire so he is part of the. influx and Republicans saw him as the. ideal opponent for John tester went out. and recruited him they've known all. along this could be the Make It or Break. It race for the Senate majority and went.

and found a guy that they thought would. be a great contrast with tester got it. okay so Republicans find this guy Navy. SEAL good candidate in their view how is. tester fighting sheii is he using she's. Outsider status against him had a lot of. folks move into this state a lot of. folks with thick wallets a lot of folks. that drive up the cost of. housing this is sort of the found.

aspect of tester's race against shei he. is trying to paint Tim shei as the very. person that many montanans are worried. about taking over their state and I. would just tell you on the housing front. Tim she is not the solution he's part of. the problem here's a rich guy moves in. buys up some property and is taking over. and so tester has pointed to sheii as. the archetype of what's going on in. Montana and he thinks that there's.

enough montanans who aren't going to. like that who are going to back him. Montana and quite frankly I've got a lot. of equipment that I've owned longer than. he's been in the state of Montana and to. be able to have those values those. Montana values and know what Montana. needs and what know what Montana makes. Montana tick is going to be critically. important moving forward for the. greatest it's not quite keep Montana for. montanans but it's been really the theme. throughout testers campaign so what does. she he say in response how does he fight.

back against what testers bringing here. truth is I wasn't lucky enough to be. born in Montana I sure would have loved. to have been couldn't control my. mother's room was when I crawled out of. it I couldn't one uh he said in their. second debate he said well I didn't have. any control over where my mother's womb. was when I came out of it and that I I. wish I had been born in Montana but uh I. wasn't creating jobs in this state was. an honor for me to do in creating. affordable housing literally building. affordable housing from scratch so our. employees afford to live in our state.

was a priority for me and my company and. we've done that but also that tap he's. bringing business and jobs to Montana I. would say that's his main response well. you heard it again if you come here from. out of state you're part of the problem. uh if you're not from here John tester. doesn't think your voice matters. apparently and that you know new people. new arrivals should be celebrated you. shouldn't have this bias against them. and that tester's been there too long. and is just too Democratic and Montana's. a different place now and so is the.

country and that he thinks he would be a. better representative for the state so. Carl how is it looking in this race like. where are they in terms of the polls. well I will say this that John tester is. working really hard but it's not looking. good for John Tester the polls have him. down over seven points and that's going. to be difficult for him to make up now. tester is uh somebody who says he can. close late and that he's got the great.

ground game and people are going to be. surprised and maybe they will be and. maybe tester can. win but John tester is sort of the last. Democratic man standing in this part of. America a part of the country the Great. Plains where Democrats used to do pretty. well but now are almost non-existent and. I think that this race is emblematic of. how things have changed for Democrats in. this part of the.

[Music]. country we'll be right. back so Carl you said that tester was. really the last man standing for. Democrats In This Very crucial part of. the country how has Democratic support.

eroded there and why well Democrats. really used to win in this part of the. country uh as recently as 10 years ago. Montana was represented by two Democrats. but I think to me it's most remarkable. when I look at the Senate map and think. that states like North Dakota and South. Dakota 20 years ago were represented. almost in all federal offices by.

democrats Nebraska had Democratic. senators now those are all gone those. seats are held by Republicans and what. happened why did it change like that. these are farmers these are people in. small towns these are people who used to. be able to set aside their partisan. leanings at home where they were. probably Republicans these are. conservative voters in these states but. they trusted these Democrats that they. sent to Washington to handle things for.

them and why did they trust Democrats. before you know these Democrats that. came from this region were pretty. Centrist and sort of Common Sense and. that's how the voters saw them actually. in North Dakota being the state tax. commissioner I know that's a little bit. obscure but that became a stepping stone. to federal office so in other words a. pretty kind of nonpartisan State office. right right and then you know people saw. how they conducted themselves these.

Democrats all were able to gain. seniority so they had important. positions where they really could. influence policy and try and take care. of their uh constituents back home but I. think there's been a steady erosion of. trust in some ways between the people. who live in these states and the federal. government those voters also saw the. Democratic party Focus heavily on social. issues where they really not have much. in common with the Democrats and I think.

that they feel that they've just been. left out of the democratic debate and. they have turned to Republicans almost. uniformly but Carl you were also of. course talking about people moving into. the state who also had a different. political orientation so is the change. here in Montana more about people moving. in or more about the people who were. there already changing their minds I. think it's a little bit of both I do. think it's part of the influx of people.

but it's also part of the. nationalization of politics you know it. used to be all politics is local now all. politics is National so I think there. are people in Montana who have voted. repeatedly for John tester and now are. like you know what I'm going to go with. the Republican party so this is. essentially the story that has been. happening all over the country for a a. while now like right like blue states. have gotten Bluer red states have gotten. rder and that Dynamic is now coming for.

one of the few remaining places that. would still elect a moderate from the. other party Montana right I do think. this is all about the decline of ticket. splitting there used to be a voter who. would very easily go into the polling. place and vote for a Republican or a. Democrat for president and then vote the. other way for the senator or the house. member that just does not happen anymore. people are in their silos and so for.

someone like John tester to overcome. this huge popularity of trump in Montana. is going to be very difficult they're. going to have to get a lot of people who. vote for Trump to vote for him now they. are talking about that on the ground out. there they're like you can be for Trump. but you also can be for John tester that. you should be able to balance those two. things the problem for tester is that. people don't want to balance that. anymore they want their party to be in.

control and uh it makes it really hard. for a. tester so people don't want to balance. that anymore which translates into. Democrats probably not being able to win. Montana anymore at least that's what it. looks like at this point yet it sounds. like the Democrats aren't giving up on. this race why is that yeah I think the. Democrats are not going to give up they. have said that tester will have all the. resources he needs right to the end now. there are a couple of things potentially.

working in tester's favor there is a. referendum on abortion rights on the. ballot in Montana tester has really. emphasized his support of abortion. rights and tried to hit sheii there. there is a significant and very. important Native American voting Block. in Montana tester has really courted. them and shei he was caught on a. recording saying some disparaging. comments about Native Americans so that.

could help tester and you know in our. own poll at the Times there remained a. lot of independent voters and undecided. voters who could tip this race and you. know maybe this is one of the last. places where people are going to be able. to go hey you know what I'm going to. vote for Trump John tester's been around. for a while I like what John tester does. he's a farmer and I'm gonna vote for him. and that's certainly what tester's. counting on sheii is counting on that. not happening so where does this leave. us Carl and what does it mean about the.

math of the senate for Democrats if. they're losing in the plain states now. for good do they have any path to. control in the Senate at all I mean is. the Senate just lost to them so the. Senate map has changed if you can't win. in the PLS you have a structural problem. however the Democrats are now winning in. some places where they had their own. problems in the past I think of Colorado. two Democratic senators now 20 years ago. two Republican Senators Arizona possibly.

after election day two Democratic. senators uh Nevada a state where. Democrats thought they were going to. have a big problem this year seems to be. pretty good for the reelection of the. democratic incumbent so Democrats are. offsetting these losses elsewhere and. then you have Texas which is the Holy. Grail of Democrats and every election. cycle Democrats say we're going to turn. Texas blue and it's it never seems to. happen yeah but this time Ted Cruz is in.

trouble in Texas against Colin Aid who's. run a good campaign against him so Ted. Cruz has a problem Democrats are also. looking at Florida there's an abortion. referendum on the ballot in Florida as. well of course the storms are going to. impact the voting there so Democrats are. trying to pick off that seat so why. Montana is the hot spot there are other. places that are in play here so the map. is just kind of flipping upside down.

really and in the balance is control of. the Senate yes which is a really really. big deal you know we could have this. situation where say that kamla Harris is. elected. president and Republicans win the Senate. well that hasn't happened in over a. hundred years that exact lineup or if. Trump wins Republican Senate maybe a. democratic house so think about the. senate for whoever is elected president.

right the Senate you have to get your. cabinet through there you have to get. all your judicial nominees through there. you have to get your policy through. there so it's it's just going to be. really difficult for whoever is elected. president to get something done so Carl. what does it say to you that this deep. partisanship we've been talking about. and seeing for years has reached Montana. what does it say about our politics it's. interesting people people are just in. their.

silos now they're Republican or Democrat. people are making their decisions based. on National issues rather than the sort. of issues that maybe in Montana would. have differentiated John tester from. National Democrats so I think. partisanship has taken over and you have. the new Republicans there but also the. existing Republicans people who've lived. there for a long time and I'm not sure.

they're ready to look at that guy they. voted for so many times and vote for him. again and I think it really makes it. difficult for someone like tester. despite his historic appeal to continue. to be. [Music]. successful Carl thank you thank you. [Music]. we'll be right.

[Music]. back here's what else you should know. today on Tuesday top security officials. in the United States warned Israel that. it has to let more humanitarian supplies. into Gaza or face. consequences Secretary of State Anthony. blinkin and defense secretary Lloyd. Austin said Israel must comply within 30.

days or risk losing military aid the. state department said the amount of. humanitarian support flowing into Gaza. last month was at its lowest point since. the October 7th attack American law bars. Military Support going to any country. found to be blocking the delivery of. humanitarian Aid provided by the. US and a County judge in Georgia blocked.

a new rule mandating a hand count of. election ballots across the state. enacting such a sweeping change for the. November election he said was quote too. much too late the judge did not however. knock down the rule entirely his. decision was confined to the current. election halting the rule from taking. effect for 2024 while he further weighs. its. merits the judges ruling was a loss for.

right-wing activists who have pushed the. passage of many new election Provisions. that the state has approved since. summer today's episode was produced by. Nina Feldman Mary Wilson MOJ zadii and. Shannon Lynn it was edited by Patricia. willins and Brendan kinken Berg with. help from Paige cow contains original. music by Marian Lozano Dan Powell and. will Reed. and was engineered by Chris Wood our.

theme music is by Jim brunberg and Ben. Lanser of. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Sabrina tavernes see you tomorrow. [Music].