The Oct. 7 Warning That Israel Ignored

from New York Times I'm Michael baboro. this is the. [Music]. daily in the weeks since Hamas carried. out a devastating terror attack inside. of Israel my colleague Ronan Bergman has. been investigating what kind of warnings. Israel missed. beforehand today the story of one of. those warnings.

[Music]. it's Monday December. [Music]. 4th Ronan this is your first time on the. daily and you bring a unique expertise. that I'd like you to describe for just a. moment because you have been covering. the Israeli military and its. intelligence services for decades and. you've gotten to know those worlds. extremely well Israel is the country.

that I think is influenced by its. intelligence service more than any other. country in the Western World H it always. had the biggest intelligence Community. per. capita and today it's the second biggest. intelligence community in total number. after the US wow so just think of the. size differ countries right yeah so. Israeli security strategy is based on.

the intelligence services to supply a. pre-alert to any kind of enemy intent to. launch preemptive strike on Israel to. supply with viable realtime intelligence. what are the intents and the. capabilities of the enemy and it's vast. it takes massive. resources and it has a lot of Secrets. every day they.

create unbelievable stories not all of. them by the way are glorifying them. sometimes the the Israeli James Bond. looks more like inspector. clo but it's always interesting and it's. always very consequential there's no. historical turn there's no historical. event there's no major decision-making. process in the history of Israel that. the intelligence Community didn't have. like a massive important imprint.

if not the decisive role in that so this. is my professional task I'm trying at. least to give the RS of the New York. Times a better understanding of how this. secret realm is so consequential on. everything we see in the real world. right and in Your Capacity as a. journalist deeply wired into the Israeli. military and that unprecedented. intelligence apparatus that you just. described you of course end up spending.

a lot of time after October 7th trying. to understand how Israel's government. failed to anticipate that attack or. really even blunt. it it's always been in my head this. question that didn't leave that didn't. stop bothering me how could this. happened and what I was getting at the. beginning when I was speaking with. people even in the first.

evening with sources with officials. throughout the intelligence community. and the defense establishment they all. said we had no idea they all said there. was nothing just a total. 100% shocking surprise from 0 to 100 in. a second with no clue no nothing that. would suggest that this is coming were. you were you skeptical of that. Ronan I was a little bit skeptical in.

this I would say. spontaneous and very fast admittal into. something that an intelligence officer. would not like to admit which which. means that the coverage the intelligence. coverage human intelligence signal. intelligence cyber and all the rest just. failed completely nothing the channels. were empty so I thought either it's. courageous people with kahunas who. say we failed.

but because I heard this from multiple. multiple directions I thought that's a. little bit. odd maybe some people are courageous and. maybe some people are very fast to admit. something that is very embarrassing. right but in order to hide to cover up. on a much darker truth and so I started. to speak with sources and then I think. it was 2 Days After the War Began when a. source said listen 8200 that's the.

Israel equivalent to the NSA on the. British gchq the the Cyber and Sig. signal intelligence unit which is the. biggest single unit in the Israeli. defense establishment and also one who. takes the best brains the best youth. when they are being drafted to the. military so they said 8200 long. ago stopped or diminished its dealing. with tactical communication of Kamas.

but then after a few days I I get. another source who says this is not even. important because the real story is not. about what they didn't know not about. the lack of coverage tactical or. strategic. whatever it's about what they knew there. was the sources there was something big. in the. pipeline and He suggests to say they. knew.

something about how this is going to. happen but the source was vague The. Source was evasive which of course makes. me a little bit mad um so he said I know. this is not what you want to get and. maybe one day I'll tell you and I said I. told the source. listen if there's a dark secret in A200. in our days this will not remain a. secret for a long time and then I start. hearing some something it's Cod named or.

named the email thread with the sudden. command huh people start describing. something to you as the email thread of. the Southern command yes and I I start. hearing stories that there's a woman who. alerted H who got it right and then I. got access to the email for and in. summary what does it tell you it tells. me that there is a.

veteran professional analyst that is. sitting in an intelligence base in the. South this base is in charge of the. intelligence collection from Gaza it's a. massive base and this. woman is studying the battle techniques. of Kamas and so in July 6th of this year. she writes the first email in that. threat where she is describing a. military drill that Kamas was running in. the center of Gaza City with two.

platoon and she starts and say they were. making this military exercise and it was. Madness and she is describing the drill. the drill the exercise including taking. down a helicopter they are imitating the. possibility so they are taking down. Israeli helicopter they're taking down. Israeli fighter Chet they cross the. border into Israel they raid a kibutz.

they put the flag on the synagogue of. the. kibutz and then they raid some kind of. Military. Academy they kill all the cadets of. course there people playing dead there. from early Dawn until the night they. were doing it with bigger forces bigger. capability and generally she says I. never saw anything like that it was.

Madness now Madness is not usually a. word that you use in those usually very. dry intelligence. reports she said. waso in Hebrew Madness or. crazy it also had a sense of almost I. would say she was impressed from those. military capab.

[Music]. abilities and at the end of this report. she adds here is another small. Edition one of the Commandos was. speaking over the radio with another one. and he was using a quote from the Quran. from Surah M which is the specific.

chapter the quote was whoever passes. this gate and surprising the other side. will get the blessing of. Allah and she says referring to the. addes of the email you remember this. quote this is the same quote that is at. the very. beginning of Jericho wall H I just want. to pause for a minute so in the days. after October 7th you end up obtaining.

these highly sensitive internal emails. in which this analy has picked up on an. elaborate drill in which members of. Hamas very much seem to be planning some. kind of attack and in communicating this. drill to the people she works with this. analyst invokes a quote from one of the. Commandos uses this phrase Jericho wall. it seems like that phrase might mean.

something what do you end up coming to. understand it means she uses that twice. and it's clear that it's not physically. the walls of Jericho which is you know. an ancient and modern city it's in the. Bible the Israelites came and surrounded. that Jericho and toppled its walls and. conquered the city so it's clearly a. code. name and she referenced to that code. name and says what we see in that drill.

is in complete overlap with Jericho wall. H so suddenly you want to know what on. Earth is Jericho wall yes and so I start. asking around when you say Jericho all. say ah the booklet H I hear this a lot. oh the booklet you mean the booklet and. in a certain point in certain milit. facility I was able to get and read the.

booklet Jericho wall and what is it it's. a shocking. document it's the last updated Hamas. plan to attack Israel wow it was. obtained by Israeli intelligence after. massive effort during 2022 more than a. year ago and it's about 40. pages I saw the transl Rel to Hebrew.

this was the one that was shared with. many seniors and analysts inside Israeli. intelligence and I said it's shocking. because the first thing you realize is. the depth of intelligence that Hamas was. able to gather on Israel like what the. purpose of Jericho wall is to take. down the Gaza division Gaza division is. the division that is protecting the. Israeli gazen.

border they control a massive. fence which is erected above ground and. underground to stop the tunnels but it's. also fortified with many cameras and in. communication hubs and I see all the. details the secret details of how this. works how many people where they sit. where is the headquarters where the. regional prate where are the towers with. the machine guns where are the scouts. watching them and operating them you see.

everything into how the front is built. and protected in the hands of Hamas in. this booklet that Hamas has written in a. plan for attacking Israel but they take. the intelligence and they translate that. into a detailed attack plan that. describes how to attack the Border first. to have a massive bombardment with. mortars rockets and missiles on Israel. to create diversion they have a detailed.

plan how to neutralize the cameras the. communication hub using drones using. paraglides and then they have raiding. forces that are tasked to break the. fence in 60 different places wow and of. course everything you are describing. from this plan is precisely what happens. on October 7th. that plan becomes a reality nobody could.

believe that this could happen but it. did to the details this is the master. plan for what happened on October 7. right so I want to return to that. analyst you mentioned earlier because. she clearly does take this report. seriously she warns in an email that she. thinks that a drill that she's watching. happening in Gaza is B basically a dry.

run for the Jericho wall plan that she. has read and so what happens when she. Flags this to the people around her so. first everybody are complimenting her. for the detailed job that she's doing. because I'm just giving you the gist but. this is a long memo with very detailed. meticulous work and then the. intelligence chief of the Gaza division. he says compliments.

compliments intelligence gold but we. need to keep that in proportion we need. to. differentiate between what they do for. show off and what they're really able to. do because the scenario he says to the. analyst the scenario that you described. at the beginning of this email. Conquering the kibuts putting the. flag this is. imaginative so he challenges her reading.

into the current current meaning in July. current Kamas capabilities and he says. no they can do this on dry when there's. no enemies so no Israelis when they're. not actually firing but this is for show. of but she is not shy and she's reacting. she says this is not imaginative mhm. this is not something that they are. hoping to do this is something they want.

to do and capable of doing and then she. says something which is I think maybe. the most important she says this is a. plan for Invasion not a plan for a. raid because the whole terminology of. everybody even the unit that is in. charge was raid raid small scale two. platoon crossing the border she saids. this is a preparation for war and it can. happen. so the analyst's colleague who's a very.

important figure in keeping Israel safe. from Gaza he basically says to this. analyst I think you're wrong this isn't. a drill for a real life attack Hamas. can't do what you think they can do. thank you for your work it's very. impressive but your worries are. misplaced and the analyst comes back and. says no no no no you are wrong they can. do this this isn't for show you should. be very worried about this but. ultimately his View. carries the.

day his view carries the day because. this was the common wisdom she was going. against the. stream she was saying something together. with two of colleagues from her base. that supported her in the exchange she. was saying everything you everybody else. believe about Jericho wall is wrong. Jericho wall is for. real and it's about what mass is capable. of doing.

[Music]. now we'll be right. back Ronan help us understand why no one. took took These Warnings from this.

analyst seriously and ultimately why. nobody who read the Jericho wall. blueprint behaved in a way that might. have stopped this attack the. intelligence blunder has three parts. first of all a total misreading of Kamas. mindset or maybe be more precise what. was going in the head of yyaa the leader. of Kamas in Gaza right in Gaza they know.

him for a long time 22 years he's spent. in Israeli prison right it's not a new. guy they knew that there's a struggle in. Kamas one part wants to be a ruler of a. state that it's. theirs if you are governing a state you. need to take care of the water of the. electricity of the sewage of the health. you cannot afford yourself to be in. allout war with Israel because then you. cannot Supply those.

services and the other side of Hamas was. about a permanent status of War right. and Israel believed that sinir was. ultimately starting to lean towards. governance and away from war yes and. Israel believed that this is going. towards a good place five days before. The Invasion the National Security. advisor for prime minister n. someone called s gave an interview to.

military radio where he said Hamas is. totally detered they learned the lesson. from the previous round of hostilities. that's May 21 they understand the price. of defiance they don't want that and. it's all going towards the direction of. calm period so you're describing a. misunderstanding or underestimating of. Hamas.

intent of senoir intent senoir and his. buddies the people around him in Gaza he. took a. decision this is about. intents but what else explains this. failure to heed the warnings of this. Jericho wall report Beyond. misunderstanding senoirs. intent professional intelligence analyst. will make a clear distinction between. assessing intent and assessing.

capabilities so if you fail one the. other will have sort of a safety button. but here I think they were influenced by. the understanding that sinir is not. going towards War it's not planning an. allout attack against. Israel and so maybe. subconsciously they didn't understand. how important is the military buildup. now some of this was was just. deception so for example Hamas did not.

do a full exercise of all the fighting. forces so there was no one incident many. many military drills but there was no. single event that Israel could see all. the different platoons together standing. and you're saying the capacity that. Israel did. see they underestimated it because they. had allowed their views of that capacity. to be so Ed by their determination that.

sinard that Hamas was not in this moment. a threat so their views of intent bled. over into their views of capacity yes. and also just maybe poor intelligence a. poor assessment poor professional. understanding in November of. 22 Israeli S command is writing a memo. they say Kamas have between 2,000 and. 3,000 NBA Commando gunmen trained and.

ready to be deployed however Hamas is. capable of deploying only. 70 okay 70 is not that bad MH it. dictates a total different set of. preparation and defenses from Israel so. on top of everything you're describing. so far Ronin a misunderstanding of. intent a misunderstanding of capacity. I'm curious how much Israel also just. Mis understood its own security system.

right Israel spoke so frequently about. this fence which turned out wasn't. impregnable defense was created as a. lesson from a round of hostilities in. 2014 when Israel discovered that Hamas. is digging tunnels from Gaza into Israel. now those are very hard to detect very. hard to destroy and Israel started to. think of how technology can solve that.

and six years later they finished. building this massive. barrier that had also that like above. ground wall and underground up to 100. meters. deep with sensors with explosives in. practice it solved the problem of the. tunnels Hamas was not able to continue. with this anymore at all. but it forced Kamas to be.

smarter it forced Kamas to work on an. open field and plan how they will. execute Jericho wall above. ground and nobody in Israel believed. that this can be like open if it's open. then we don't need to detect them we. have all those computers and telescopes. and Scouts and right we'll see it yeah. we'll see it people got completely. people of the military got completely in. Enchanted by the.

wall and in time they allocated fewer. and fewer forces to the southern front. and those forces were less and less. alert because it's all about technology. in short you're saying Israel became. complacent the forces On the Border were. not sharp we're not ready because they. said that defense is Invincible you see. the the videos from the day of the. invasion you see how easy it was for.

Hamas to break defense and you you don't. understand the gap between invincible. and you know just one bulldozer just. take it. out what would have happened in a world. where the Jericho wall report was taken. much more seriously had been distributed. much more widely and more and more. people in the military and in the. government took the view of this anal. for example how easily could Israel have.

prepared for and. prevented the ultimate October 7th. attack if they had decided that report. that plan was for. real so the other day someone very high. rank official in the southern front he. calls me and he asked me to come to see. him. privately so I understand it's something. very secret and when I come and see him. he says do do you know what is Jericho. wall H I said well as it happens I know.

because you hadn't you hadn't yet. published your investigation yeah and he. said I didn't know until yesterday he. didn't. know and I said okay what would you do. if you. knew and he says there are two options. here either you deem the force of Kamas. at this moment is too risky to Israel. and then you go to preemptive surprise.

attack against Hamas to take them. down but also acknowledging we both said. this immediately and simultaneously. there was no government no prime. minister no public that would support. such a ground Invasion before October 7. so the other option is to prepare in. case that happens some steps are easy. put landmines behind the. fence and some are by far are more. significant so instead of four.

battalions Israel would need to have. throughout the year four to five. brigades this is massive we're talking. about like 20,000 troops but there's no. other way because if if you think that. there is a threat if they have the. capability you don't need even to think. about the intent none of that happened. they did not put landmines they did not. enlarge the force. because they didn't think it's real so I.

have to ask what has been the reaction. to your reporting within Israel the. Prime Minister Benjamin and yahu has. said there will be a moment to account. for his government's failings to prevent. October 7th When The War is Over is what. you have found here the existence of. this report and the failure to take it. seriously is that going to mean that. when that accounting comes it's going to. be devastating especially for him. Benjamin Netanyahu is occupied mainly.

with one thing to put all the blame on. the shoulders of the intelligence and. the. military now not that they didn't fail. they did their leaders took. responsibility they said we failed we. will conclude the necessary lessons. after the war which is in in Hebrew that. means that they will resign but first. they said we need to find Benjamin said. it's not me it's them here they took.

responsibility and in any case we don't. investigate now now if there is a true. investigation after the war what we. discuss now this is going to be one of. the main chapters of the investigation. panel right how could it not be no doubt. I was in a meeting where a senior New. York Times editor asked a high rank. official if there's a the moment he. regrets in hindsight that he could you.

know do something else and that person. said we will all have lifetime to think. about. that so we're talking about high level. officials but I'm curious how much this. attack and the idea that it was. preventable how that has changed how. every day Israelis view this enormous. military intelligence. apparatus that we have been talking. about here that was supposed to protect.

them I think most Israelis didn't need. the New York Times to know that. intelligence. failed because the failure is just all. over the defense establishment the. failure to prevent and then when it. happens to rush the forces and save. those people that are being being. butchered was clear from the first.

evening and he writes. exactly into the. reasons why Israel was established in. the first place the promise that every. Jew that comes to Israel will be. protected was one of the main CES of the. establishment the DNA of every Israeli. that contract between the state and the. Jewish people was brutally.

violated when I was a kid and basically. throughout my. life everyone always complained about. the government that it's dysfunctional. that it's corrupt but everybody were. also living under the assumption that. whatever the the government does the. defense establishment is a different. Island it's a different universe and. they they might fail from time to time. but at the end of the day they will. supply the. necessary.

security that would prevent any enemy to. reach Israeli territory that feeling of. confidence was. hammered people in Tel Aviv now are. afraid to leave their houses and so this. intelligence blunder will hunt the. Israeli future for many many. years. well. Ronin thank you very much we appreciate.

it thank you Michael pleasure to be with. you over the weekend Israel appeared to. set the stage for a ground invasion of. Southern Gaza by bombarding the region. with air strikes and ordering residents. of several towns there to leave their. homes in remarks to reporters a Spoke. spokesman for the Israeli military. sought to dispel the idea that Israel's.

goal of destroying Hamas could be. accomplished in a short period of. time the spokesman described a quote. long war that is not bound by. time we'll be right. [Music]. back. [Music].

here's what else you need to another day. on this vote the Y's are 311 the Nays. are. 114 23ds voting in the affirmative the. resolution is adopted the chair. announces to the house that in light of. the expulsion of the gentleman from New. York Mr Santos the whole number of the. house is now. 434 the expulsion of Republican. Congressman George Santos of New York on. Friday over serial Fabrications and.

allegations of theft from his own. campaign has touched off an intense. battle to replace him the times reports. that the governor of New York is. expected to schedule a special election. to Phil Santos's seat in February an. election likely to become one of the. most high-profile competitive and. expensive off-ear races in decades. Santos's former District on Long Island.

is politically moderate and both. Republicans and Democrats see it as a. major electoral prize in a closely. divided. house today's episode was produced by. Rachel quer muj zi Carlos PRI and Stella. tan it was edited by Patricia willin and. Michael benois contains original music. by maryan Lozano Diane Wong and Dan. Powell and was engineered by Alyssa.

Moxley our theme music is by Jim runberg. and Ben Lansford of. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael. Boro see you. [Music]. tomorrow.