The Iran War's Devastating Butterfly Effect

From The New York Times, I'm Rachel. Abrams and this is The Daily. >> [music]. >> The war in Iran has had some visible. consequences like skyrocketing energy. costs and higher gas [music] prices. But the effects of this war are often. far less obvious and much more serious. for the world's most vulnerable people. Today, my colleague Peter Goodman. >> [music]. >> tells us about what he learned on a.

recent trip to Somalia and why the. system [music] of global aid is no. longer in a position to help. >> [music]. [music]. >> It's Wednesday, June 10th. >> [music]. >> Peter Goodman, welcome back to The. Daily. >> Thanks for having me. >> So Peter, we're now 101 days into the.

war with Iran and we have talked a lot. on this show about its effect on gas. prices, but you cover global supply. chains, which means that you've gone all. over the world, you've reported on how. something gets from point A to point B. and you have focused a lot on all the. people who are affected in between. So for that reason, we wanted to ask you. for your take on how the war has. disrupted things all over the world in. less visible ways. >> Well, first of all, the price of energy. goes so far beyond putting gas in your.

car, right? I mean, we've seen cooking. fuel get scarce in India, in South. America. We've seen the Philippines. limit the hours that people can work in. office buildings to limit the cost of. air conditioning. We've seen helium, which is used by computer chip factories. from Taiwan, get expensive and hard to. secure. The ripple effects of this are. almost infinite. >> Reminds me of the butterfly effect. A. butterfly flaps its wings in one place. and you see a tidal wave in another.

>> Right. I mean, this particular butterfly. is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the conduit for something like. 1/5 of the world's oil supply and uh. something like a third of major forms of. fertilizer, which affects how much food. that we can grow. And so, the. consequences of this particular flapping. of wings are especially enormous. >> Mhm. >> In addition to these kind of ripple. effects, there are also significant. issues of life and death. And that's. what I've been focusing on. I've been.

looking at 60 or so countries that tend. to suffer from malnutrition even in the. best of times, and every time there's a. shock, we have reason to worry. And now. we have a big reason to worry because. the price of food and fertilizer is. going up very quickly in many parts of. the world. And we in wealthy countries. decided to dismantle large parts of the. international humanitarian relief. system. This is the safety net that.

dates all the way back to the end of. World War II. And then we in the United. States and Israel decided to launch this. war. >> Mhm. The aid cuts that you referred to, the US aid cuts of course refer to. USAID. We covered this on the show. That. was something that happened very early. on in the second Trump administration. >> Yes. I mean, that's a critically. important part of the story, but it's. far from the only part. I mean, in. addition, major European donors like the. United Kingdom, like Germany, have also.

pulled back. And this is in part because. the Trump administration has pressed. European allies to spend more money on. their own defense or financing NATO as. opposed to, in the Trump view, just. relying on the good graces and largesse. of the United States. And so, in London, in Berlin, major governments have also. cut back significantly on overseas aid. and that has contributed to to this. picture. So, let me give you an example,

you know, four years ago. >> Mhm. >> when Russia invaded Ukraine, there were. similar fears about a fertilizer crisis. and hits to food security because Russia. and Ukraine together produce a lot of. grain. They also produce a lot of the. peace parts for fertilizers and so from. Egypt to Indonesia, there were worries. about the price of bread and grains. >> And if the energy prices did go up. because of that war, too. They're not. unfounded, right? >> The these were real effects. In fact, I.

went to Nigeria back in 2023 to write. about the shock to the fertilizer. situation and it was pretty dire. But. here's what was different. There was 43 billion dollars in. international humanitarian relief led by. 17 billion from the United States that. got marshaled to take on this crisis and. staved off famine in places like Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Afghanistan and.

Somalia. >> So, when the war in Ukraine shocked the. world economy, the humanitarian system. more or less worked. >> Exactly. And then came the war in Iran. And this time we're in a moment where. the politics are completely different. and much of the developed wealthy world. is pulling back and so now we're in a. situation where we've got tremendous. need for aid, we've got climate crises. around the world and yet we've seen.

international humanitarian relief drop. from 43 billion in 2022 to 28 billion. last year and it's still coming down. >> Do you feel like. the US's allies looked at the cuts that. the US was making to USAID and thought, "Okay, well, if the US is cutting it, we. can cut it, too." Like, do you think. that the US almost gave our NATO allies. permission to cut their own humanitarian. programs? >> Yes and no. I mean, look, the Nordic. countries in the European Union as a.

block are still holding the line on. overseas aid. And yet, the political. appeal in many countries, and especially. this one, the United States, of saying, "Hey, how about we solve problems at. home instead of trying to save starving. kids in some far-away place that I'll. never visit." That has a lot of. political punch. >> Mhm. >> Now, I think it's important to remember. that while politically, it's sometimes. very convenient for people to attack.

overseas aid and treat it like it's just. sort of a discretionary type of charity, the people who designed it and continue. to advocate for this system have argued. that, you know, in addition to the. humanitarian aims, it's also been an. instrument of foreign policy. It's. traditionally been about national. security policy. And while it might be. tempting to say, "Well, what do people. in some far-away place have to do with. the voter in Ohio or New Jersey or. wherever?" History tells us that when.

you leave tens of millions of people in. a situation where they don't have enough. food to eat, their already difficult. lives become that much more traumatic. >> Mhm. >> That can play out a lot of different. ways, but they're not good. First of. all, you can end up with the mother of. all migration crises. Now, I'm not here. to to fearmonger about immigration, but. if your perspective is you don't want. millions of people heading to the Darien. Gap in Panama or uh streaming toward. places like Greece and Turkey and on. toward northern Europe, well, you got to.

give a thought to what's going to happen. if you remove all of this aid and then. add on an enormous crisis. >> You're describing a bunch of reasons why. people risk everything to travel to. other countries in search of a better. life. Hunger, climate change, desperation, and all of that, as you're. describing, is poised to get even worse. because of the shocks caused by the Iran. war. >> Right. People are not going to sit in. their villages and starve. >> Mhm.

>> People are going to go to where they can. better support their families, and the. worse the crisis gets, the more likely. that people will be on the move. It's. also worth reminding people that, you. know, Al-Shabaab, which is this Al-Qaeda. affiliated Islamist militia, is active. in the Horn of Africa, and certainly. trauma like famine provides recruits. It's it's another societal shock. >> Right. There are a lot of reasons why it.

might be bad for a country to become, for lack of a better term, a failed. state. >> That's right. What happens when a state. sinks into absolute dysfunction? That. can play out a lot of different ways. They're generally not good, and it it's. not tenable for the rest of the world to. pretend that it's living in some sort of. giant gated community. You know, gated. community as national security policy. tends not to work very well. >> Right. >> So, you know, I was already thinking. about places I could go to illustrate.

the crisis from rising fertilizer prices. and malnutrition, and I was talking to. aid groups around the world, and then I. had a conversation with Mercy Corps, this American aid organization that I. had known from traveling with them in. Nigeria to write about the fertilizer. crisis back in 2023, and they suggested that I think about. going to Somalia. >> Mhm. >> [music]. >> A country that is especially susceptible.

to climate change, drought. [music]. My reflexive take on that was that. Somalia was not a place on my map of. potential places to do reporting because. it's traditionally thought of as very. difficult, dangerous, but they suggested. that it would be possible. And as I saw. how dependent Somalia was on not only. imported food, but also imported. fertilizer coming out of the Strait of. Hormuz, >> Mhm. >> I realized that it was the perfect place.

to see up close this grave test [music]. of what one person put it to me as the. post aid era. >> [music]. [music]. >> We'll be right back. Okay, so Peter, talk to us about your. trip to Somalia. What did you find going.

on there? >> Well, it's important to say right at the. top that Somalia was already in a very. precarious situation before the war. started. There was, you know, as I. mentioned before, a severe drought. There'd been several droughts in a row. These had devastated the food supply. You've got armed conflict. And then. you've got these dramatic cuts to the. aid system before this war. >> Mhm. >> So, Somalia imports something like 70%.

of its food and 90% of its energy. And. because so much shipping has been. disrupted by the shutdown of the Strait. of Hormuz and to a lesser extent the Red. Sea, you've got several weeks of delays. getting supplies into ports in the Horn. of Africa. And so, the price of food and. fuel has more than doubled since the. war. >> You're describing a series of cascading. events that all could lead to these. potentially catastrophic results.

I want to go through them one by one. Let's start with the food situation. >> Right. So, in Mogadishu, which is the. capital of Somalia, I went to a fish market and there were. these guys wielding machetes to hack uh. sharks and tuna into steaks. I talked to a a woman who was running a. stand there, Fatuma Noor, and she was telling me that wholesale.

prices have gone up because the fishing. boats can't afford to buy as much diesel. as they used to, which means they can't. go out to the deeper waters where the. biggest fish are. They're staying closer. to the shore, which is depleting the. catch, which is limiting the supply of. fish. So, she has to pay more, and as a. result, she has to charge her customers. more, so her sales are down half, and. she's actually worried about going. bankrupt as a result of this. >> And Somalia, of course, is a country. where a lot of people already had.

trouble affording food. >> Of course. >> But what about the people who, even. before the Iran war, could not afford to. go to this market and purchase the. sharks that are being cut up, the fish. that she is selling? What have they been. doing since prices have only gone up? >> Yeah, I mean, I talked to. I don't even know how many families who. said, "We don't know where our next meal. is coming from. We're lucky if we can. feed our children one meal a day." Lots. of families are now subsisting on, you. know, sorghum porridge with weeds that. they're finding by riverbanks, and the.

drought is even eliminating that. >> Mhm. >> This is the drought that existed before, >> Mhm. >> but what struck me was how UNICEF, for. one example, they're trucking water to. drought-afflicted areas. And they were. already dealing with budget cuts. Well, now the price of diesel goes up, so the. price of trucking that water is much. more expensive, so now they're trucking. less water. Well, now that they're. trucking less water, there are more. people in need who can no longer stay in. the places that used to be relying upon.

that water. They have to go move. somewhere in search of aid in the places. like the ones I visited in camps along. the Ethiopian border. >> So, what did you see when you visited. those camps? And what did the people. there tell you? >> Yeah, well, this was gutting. On my. first day in the town of Dolo on the. Ethiopian border, the sort of place where traditionally. large international relief groups, World. Food Program, UNICEF, have clustered,

I met a family that had left a rural. area where the drought had been. particularly severe. It had killed their. 50 head of cattle. That's their life. savings. Once that's gone, they've got. nothing. You know, all the rivers have. dried up. They can't grow any food. So, they walked for nine days. >> Wow. >> carrying their 3-year-old daughter on. their backs. And they get there to Dolo, and they. discover that all of these international. relief groups, almost all of them, have.

abandoned the area. There's no help. >> Did they tell you how it felt to arrive. only to find out that this was just an. aid camp with no aid? >> I mean, they were in disbelief. And they. understood, like most of the people in. these camps, they can't go back. They. set up a tent alongside a hundreds of. others with some plastic sheeting that. gets donated by some other people in the. camp. They find some sticks, and they.

set up the shelter, and they're just. waiting and hoping that some aid will. return. >> What you are describing is a mass. starvation crisis in the making, if not. already here. Can you talk a little bit about what. treatment is available for people who do. not have enough food for these children. who do not have enough food? And has. that changed also as a result of the. war? >> Yeah, that's changed dramatically. I think maybe the most harrowing thing I. saw, I was taken to a a UNICEF ward of a.

hospital in Mogadishu where the most. severe malnutrition cases were taken. >> [crying]. >> This hospital has seen a doubling of. cases in the last few months. This is. since the disruptions of the war. I saw babies needing feeding tubes and. oxygen to be kept alive. >> Is Is this okay? Get on my page.

>> And I talked through a translator with a. mother who was sitting next to her. 18-month-old baby boy leaning up. alongside her. >> So, she's saying. that they live in dry land so they. cannot cultivate. >> So, they lost their crops and they got. hungry. >> And her son began. >> vomiting? >> Yeah. >> He had fever and infections. >> And when her infant son couldn't hold. down any food, she had to beg to get $24.

to get her child to the city in a place. where farm laborers are making a dollar. a day. >> Mhm. >> And he was actually a {quote} positive. outcome. >> Oh, that's it. >> Yeah, another 3 or 4 days. He was about to be discharged. >> Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you so. much. >> I appreciate. >> Thank you. >> But here was the part of this that was. most striking to me. The doctors there told me. a third of these cases they think could. have been avoided had these kids been.

assessed and treated earlier. Now, UNICEF has been forced to close 205. health and nutrition centers throughout. Somalia. >> Mhm. >> If those centers were still there, then. a a of these kids ending up in the. hospital needing oxygen to breathe and. feeding tubes to stay alive would be. treated and assessed earlier, but that. capacity has been dismantled. >> Peter, you mentioned that Somalia was.

already facing a cascading series of. crises even before the Iran war. >> Right. >> Do we have any way to quantify how much. worse the humanitarian crisis has. gotten? >> Well, let me put it to you this way. In. February, so this is before the impacts. of the Iran war, >> Mhm. >> the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. warns that there are 6 and 1/2 million. people in Somalia. That's about a third. of the population that are suffering. hunger at levels that are deemed an.

emergency. And early last year, the. World Food Program, which is the largest. source of food aid in the country, has. funds to serve as many as 2 million. people a month. >> Mhm. >> Well, when I was there, this is late. April, early May, they were down to. funds that were adequate to serve. 300,000 people a month, and that was. going to run out at the end of June. >> 2 million to 300,000 a month and no more.

come July. >> Correct. And I actually got a snapshot. of this aid running out in real time in. Somalia. >> have 7,300. We only have. >> So, I went to visit a World Food Program. warehouse. So, this is this is 2 months. supply. >> Yeah, 2 months supply left. >> Okay. This is a place that felt like a. fortress, you know, high walls topped by. barbed wire. >> We're supplying the region basically. with food. >> And I walked through that facility with. the director, Josephine Mouli.

Josephine, so when you first started. here. >> Mhm. >> 2 years ago, >> Mhm. >> how many of these tents were full? >> Basically, we used to have full. capacity. >> She showed me these 13 A-frame tents. that normally would be full of food aid. and 12 of these 13 tents were empty. >> Mhm. >> So, we're in the one tent that actually. does have some supplies and it's.

>> We went inside this one tent that was. full and there were these brown cartons. >> cardboard boxes stamped with the USAID. logo and American [snorts] flags. It. says made in USA. >> They were full of Plumpy'nut, which is. this peanut-rich nutrient paste that's. fed to malnourished children and. pregnant and breastfeeding moms and this. was the last of it. There was nothing. else in the pipeline. >> to. June, June, July. >> Right.

>> If we don't get any funding, we'll be. dry completely, completely. We can't. respond. >> And I asked the director quite bluntly, "And then what happens to the. population? What are you going to do?". >> We'll ask you the same question. What. happens when you don't have anything to. give, what do you give? >> Right. >> And get desperate and see people really. >> It It really brought home for me that. these aid workers are now in a position. where they're having to contemplate this. surreal hierarchy of suffering where,

you know, as one World Food Program. official put it to me, "We're deciding. who lives today and who dies in in 2. weeks.". >> Peter, how representative is what you. saw in Somalia of the downstream effects. of this war in the other countries that. you have been focused on? >> Well, look, Somalia goes into this. crisis especially vulnerable, but it is. very much representative in that the. trajectory is the same. So, in Sudan,

which is widely considered the world's. most dire humanitarian crisis at at. moment, where you already have parts of. the country in officially declared. famine, will now import Sudan, the. primary gateway for food aid in Sudan, you have stuff coming in weeks later, and then the head of UNICEF for Sudan. told me, it's difficult to get that. stuff trucked to places that are. stricken by famine, because not only is. the price of diesel so expensive, but.

the trucking companies are unwilling to. take the risk of bringing their trucks. into the hinterland, because there are. actual physical shortages of diesel fuel. in the center of the country. >> stuck there. >> They're worried they're going to get. stuck there. So, I just came back from. Ivory Coast, which is one of the fastest. growing economies on on Earth. This is. in West Africa, and there you have cocoa. farmers who have already been suffering. from dramatically reduced prices for. their crops. Now they're looking at. increased prices for fertilizer, which.

means lower yields, lower livelihoods, and on it goes. >> [snorts]. >> Peter, one of the things that we have. talked about on this show a lot since. the war began was that even if it ended. tomorrow, even if the Strait of Hormuz. opened tomorrow, enough damage has been. done to energy infrastructure in the. Persian Gulf that the disruptions to. energy supplies could go on for years. And I wonder whether you foresee that. same kind of more lasting disruption in.

the countries that we've talked about. today. >> Look, a a lot of what we're talking. about here will change people's lives. forever. Now, will some of it return to normal. when the strait reopens? Maybe some of. it, sure, fuel prices presumably will go. back down, fertilizer will be more. available, and and food prices could. come back down, and that could have a. lot of benefit, but you have to look at. things a little more expansively than. that. I mean, again, think about the.

butterfly effect, all of the ripple. effects that can't be undone in a few. weeks or maybe even years. I mean, I. went to a training program in Dolo in. Somalia that used to be funded by USAID. It trained people to be seamstresses, and when I was there they had no threat. They didn't have chemicals for their. sewing machines, and enrollment had. crashed. Now, this is not the most. acutely needed sort of program if you're. thinking about feeding people tomorrow,

but it's vital in terms of building up. some upward mobility. >> [snorts]. >> Think about that times a million. >> [music]. >> You know, Rachel, I've been doing this. sort of work a long time. I spent a lot of time in conflict zones. and disasters. You know, 2004. I was in Thailand the day of the. tsunami. I went to Indonesia, and I saw. and heard stories that will haunt me. forever. I saw 200 bodies in Thailand set up at.

this makeshift morgue lying out in the. sun. I heard parents recounting how their. children had been yanked out of their. arms by this wave. >> Mhm. >> I mean, I don't really like the sort of. Olympics of suffering. And yet, what I saw in Somalia was. enraging as well as gutting because what. happened in the Indian Ocean tsunami. was, as they say, an act of God. And.

what I was seeing in Somalia was the. product of a series of political. decisions. It was made by human beings. You have hundreds of millions of people. who, by dint of climate change, cuts to. the aid system, the impacts of the war, are now in these sort of purgatory. situations, and we're still at the. beginning stages of it. There's a long way down to go from here.

>> Peter Goodman, thank you so much. >> Thank you so much, Rachel. >> [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. >> [music]. >> Early Wednesday morning, the United. States and Iran exchanged military. attacks in the Middle East. A severe. escalation after the downing of an.

American helicopter gunship earlier in. the week. >> [music]. >> Acting on orders from President Trump, US Central Command launched what it. called self-defense operations near the. Strait of Hormuz, [music]. striking Iranian air defenses, ground. control stations, and surveillance radar. sites. The scale of the damage is not. yet clear. In response, Iran claimed [music]. launched drone strikes targeting the US. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, along. with 21 attacks on US bases across. [music] the region.

But US officials report that nearly all. of the incoming missiles and drones were. intercepted, and there have been no. reports of American casualties or damage. [music] to US bases, according to. initial American assessments. Today's episode was [music] produced by. Adrienne Hurst, Rochelle Bongja, and. Claire Tennis Getter. with help of Diana Win. It was edited. [music] by Chris Hackel and Michael. Benoist with help from Liso Balin and.

contains music by Dan [music] Powell and. Lia Shoademaron. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Chris. Wood. >> [music]. >> That's it for The Daily. I'm Rachel. Abrams. See you tomorrow.