The Harris Honeymoon Is Over

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. daily a major new poll from the times. finds that the political honeymoon is. over for vice president kamla. Harris today my colleague Nate Con on. how some of Harris's strengths from just. a few weeks ago are now becoming her. weaknesses and the opening that that is. creating for Donald Trump.

it's Monday September. [Music]. 9th Nate welcome back to the show thanks. for having me so Nate you have always. made clear to us that in a presidential. campaign polls are a snapshot of a. political moment in time and the last. time we took that kind of snapshot back. in August kamla Harris had just replaced. Joe Biden as the Democratic nom.

and for Harris it was a very good. snapshot talk to us about this latest. poll that we did and what it reveals. about this moment in time well when we. last talked we had just found KLA Harris. moving ahead of Donald Trump and the key. Battleground States and now we have a. little bit of a different story the most. recent PLL today shows Donald Trump. narrowly ahead of comma Harris. Nationwide 48 to. 47% and how should we.

understand that I mean that is a very. very close race what's behind it it's a. very close race and before we go too. much further it's worth putting a few. caveats out there not many other polls. show Donald Trump in a lead Nationwide. in fact this is the first poll to show. him with a lead in nearly a month so we. have to be cautious until there are. other polls that back it up it's. possible this is a little bit of a. statistical outlier but I do think it's. possible maybe even likely that Trump. has been gaining ground over the last. few weeks Harris enjoyed a fantastic.

month from the end of July through the. Democratic Convention it's easy to. imagine how that propelled her numbers. to unsustainable Heights and the last. two weeks while they've been arguably. perfectly fine for kamla Harris they. haven't been the same as they were for. much of last month so it wouldn't be. terribly surprising if her numbers have. begun to fade a bit okay so basically. there is a chance that this poll is. telling us that the honeymoon is over so. to speak right the momentum is no longer.

propelling her forward and instead Trump. is ascendant that's right it would. suggest that she's come a little bit. back to Earth now that there isn't this. wave of euphoria that greeted her. initial candidacy okay so caveat aside. break these results down for us so back. in August what you told us was that. Harris appeared to be benefiting. mightily from being the fresh face in. the race not Biden not Trump but instead. a kind of hazy democratic ideal somebody.

who wasn't taking too many bold. positions or really defining herself. with great detail in any way at all. that's right I mean I likened it to her. being something like a generic Democrat. and that sounds a little insulting but. it's really not when polers ask would. you rather vote for a generic Democrat. or Donald Trump generic Democrat does. great and that's more or less how kamla. haros was running right she was. advancing boilerplate Democratic. messaging on abortion and helping the. middle class and democracy and the risk.

involved in that though was that by. running as a fairly generic candidate. that she was forfeiting the opportunity. to more clearly Define herself in the. mind of the public and I think that the. poll suggests some early signs that now. that that Euphoria has faded that the. public is still hungering for a little. bit more about KLA Harris and she hasn't. provided it yet and that that's hurting. her a little bit among some critical.

constituencies that maybe don't pay as. much attention to politics or who aren't. as highly engaged in politics as others. and which voters exactly are we talking. about Nate well I think we can break it. down into a few groups and I think one. group of groups are the traditionally. Democratic constituencies young black. and Latino voters she's doing a lot. better than Joe Biden was but she's. still not doing quite as well as. Democrats usually do so in the poll we. find Harris ahead 78 to 14 among black.

voters for instance that's a lot better. than Joe Biden was doing in many of our. polls but it's not the 9010 sort of. margin that Democrats usually get and we. can repeat that story for young voters. and Latino voters as well and in each of. those cases our poll finds a really. disproportionate share of those voters. saying that they don't feel like they've. yet learned enough about KLA Harris that. there's still a lot more that they need. to learn before they're comfortable with. her in a way that's not so true for many.

other constituencies like college. educated voters or older voters okay so. the same voters who were a problem for. Biden are still a problem for Harris I. mean she's improved on his numbers but. not so much that it's propelled her. solidly into any sort of lead you know. these are voters who lean Democrat. potentially but are not necessarily. coming home to the party just yet and a. big reason for that is because they. don't know enough about her that's right. and I think the numbers are pretty.

striking you know for young people a. majority of 18 to 29y olds say they feel. like they need to learn more about KLA. Harris more than 40% of black and Latino. voters say the same and it may be that. there is no deep problem here and that. it's just a matter of time that as. voters tune in and see advertisements. and watch debates they'll come around to. KL Harris the poll doesn't really show. that this is an extraordinarily deep. problem but it does show that she hasn't. made the sale yet I mean the thing. that's really interesting about this is. the fact that you know some key voters.

say they don't know much about her but. it's not like she hasn't staked out any. policy positions right I mean we did a. whole episode about her economic plans. for new homeowners and parents but what. this poll suggests is that that really. isn't breaking through to people I mean. it's In fairness it's only been a few. weeks since she launched her candidacy. and many of the groups were talking. about young black latino voters these. are not necessarily voters who are the. most highly engaged they turn out at.

lower rates they watch cable news at. lower rates so it's entirely plausible. that when these voters do tune in and. many will in time that they'll find they. like a lot of what KLA Harris has to say. right most of the electorate is not. living in the political science seminar. that we are here at the New York Times. most of the electorate is going about. their daily lives trying to find parking. spaces and bringing their kids to school. that's exactly right and when you're. trying to think about how the polls. change from week to week or month to. month that person probably had heard at. some point something good about kamla.

you know they hadn't necessarily heard. her economic policies but the Vibes were. good as they say and that person was a. little bit bler to tell the pollster oh. yeah I'll vote for her and now that. that's gone away there's nothing for. them to hang on to at the moment she. didn't fully make the cell and now. they've reverted back to being undecided. or in some cases saying they'll vote for. Donald Trump and that could change again. between now and November interesting. meanwhile Trump is doing pretty well. among those constituencies that usually. back Republican candidates Donald Trump.

leads among voters over age 65 and over. age 45 in the poll he has a huge lead. among white working class voters 66% to. 30% oh wow and that groups around 40% of. the elector it's more than black and. Latino voters combined so that's a big. Advantage for him to have already sort. of locked in lock sided support among. his core constituencies while kamla. Harris is still working to rebuild parts. of the democratic Coalition so basically. what we're seeing is that the gains.

she's made with Democrats turn out to be. not enough to outweigh Trump's growing. strength with white working class and. with older voters at least so far so far. and it is worth noting by the way and. emphasizing what you said that this is. growing strength Donald Trump is doing. better among older voters and among. white working class voters in this poll. than he was against Joe Biden so there. has been a little bit of a trade-off. here for Democrats and selecting a. relatively liberal younger non-white. candidate perhaps and that there's been.

just a little bit of a tradeoff with. groups that were Joe Biden's relative. strength even though he wasn't. necessarily excelling among those voters. either so where Biden was doing well. with older voters you know chipping away. at this white workingclass difference. Harris is actually falling behind. exactly so if people don't quite know. what her message is what is it that they. want what are they saying to you in this. poll that they want that Harris is not. giving them well the overarching thing. that.

voters say they want is change 61% of. Voters say they want major change from. Joe Biden a majority of Voters say the. country is heading in the wrong. direction only a quarter think the. economy is good or excellent this is a. dissatisfied electorate and at the. moment they're not convinced that KLA. Harris offers the solution to the. problems that concern them only 25% of. Voters say KLA Harris represents major. change interesting a majority 55% call. her more of the same Donald Trump in.

contrast who in many respects is very. much a candidate of the past is seen as. bring major change by a majority of. Voters and only 35% think he's more of. the same so at this time when Americans. are dissatisfied and looking for. something different Donald Trump appears. to have a really big advantage over. kamla Harris in representing a major. departure from the status quo. fascinating so in some of these voters. Minds Harris is an extension of Biden I. mean if you're the haris campaign and.

you're looking at this poll you're. probably going to want to create as much. daylight as possible between your. positions and Biden's positions that's. right and you know the poll suggests. it's even a little worse than that for. Harris and that voters don't just think. she's sort of similar to Joe Biden they. may also partly blame her for some of. what they think is wrong with the. country today I mean more than half of. Voters 63% of Voters say she bears at. least some of the blame for the problems. at the border a majority say that she. bears at least some of the blame for the.

state of the economy and Rising prices. that's surprising to me the vice. president is hardly considered a. powerful person but voters nonetheless. associate her enough with the current. Administration that not only do they. think she doesn't represent change but. she may also be partly responsible for. what's wrong with the status quo right. she's getting saddled with some of the. worst things associated with the Biden. Administration which is pretty. interesting because it sort of in a way. answers an open question we had after. after the Democratic National Convention.

which did a lot of work to tell her. story as a change candidate that was the. story that they told about her and when. we came out of that convention the. question was okay you know the people. inside the convention hall believe that. but did everybody else in the country. and I think what it seems to be this. poll is telling us is that we are. starting to get an answer to that and. the answer is no they didn't that's. right and not only did the convention. fail to Define her but it left the. Republicans with an opening to Define.

her. instead and the pull offers some hints. that those Republican attacks are. beginning to work and leave voters with. an impression that the Harris campaign. maybe doesn't want them to. [Music]. have we'll be right back.

[Music]. so Nate what have Republicans been able. to do when it comes to defining Harris I. think the poll shows that they've made. some progress on two fronts she thinks. she's going to bring down prices then. why here's a simple little few words why. didn't you do it KLA why didn't you do. it you've been there three and a half. years one is en tying to the Biden. administration's policies on immigration.

and the economy I can say that with. everything why hasn't she secured the. Border you know she was the bordar right. she was the bordar it was a big deal she. says for the break I mentioned that a. majority of Voters say she's partly. responsible at least for the state of. the border and Rising prices but she was. in charge and it it was uh the worst. this was the worst Border in history. there's never been a border in the world. like this they've also made some. progress in defining her as too far to. the left.

comrade kamla Harris she I call her. comrade because she is a radical left. Marxist she wants open borders we've. heard Trump call her comrade KLA right. and the poll shows some signs that. that's working overall 47% of likely. voters say Harris is too liberal or too. Progressive on the issues that's not. extraordinarily alarming for her. campaign it's under half it's not. necessarily a deal breaker for a. majority of Voters but it's worth. contrasting that with Trump's position.

as only. 32% of Voters say he's too conservative. which you know implies that the propond. of the electorate doesn't really have. any reservations about Trump's. ideological positioning at all they. don't think he's too far to the right in. the same way that voters seem to think. Harris is too far to the left. interesting so she's still comrade. Kamala but he's occupying the political. middle which is surprising because Trump. I think of as fairly far to the right on. the issues I mean immigration abortion. how do you understand this finding and.

and what you're seeing here Nate it's. definitely true that there are some. issues like immigration where Trump has. staked out a pretty conservative. position but there are a lot of issues. where Trump really isn't that. conservative for a republican I mean if. you a decade ago told me about a. republican who had the support of an RFK. Jr and Tulsi gabard but was opposed by. Dick Cheney who was pretty Cy on his. position on abortion by the way even. though he may have been responsible for. appointing the justices who overturned.

Rover versus Wade I think we would. recognize that candidate as being one. who was doing a lot of work to try and. occupy something like the political. middle and I think it's especially true. on the economy as well his positions on. trade and entitlements are very. different than a Mitt Romney or Paul. Ryan was I think he's done more work. than people give credit for to position. himself in a way that's amenable to a. certain kind of populist moderate. voter right he did kind of put his. finger on something in the American.

electorate and change Republican. Orthodoxy I mean the fact that he speaks. in favor of entitlements and not against. is so different from the Paul Ryan era. yeah and for millions of Voters that was. what was most alienating about the old. brand of Republican for a century the. Democrats were defined by being the. party of the working class and against. big business and Donald Trump has. complicated that story in a way that. really matters okay so what else does. this poll tell us about Trump's RS I. mean you mentioned earlier that voters.

really see him as a change candidate. despite the fact that you know he's. already been president we kind of know. his policies but I guess what this poll. is suggesting is that he's a change from. Biden as you said that's what voters. want so where else is he doing well I. think the biggest thing that we haven't. talked about is the economy in every. poll we ask people what's the most. important issue their vote and every. time they say it's the economy and the. cost of living and every time they also. say that they think that Donald Trump. would do a better job than the. Democratic candidate whether it was Joe.

Biden before or KLA Harris now at. handling the issue in this poll Donald. Trump has a double digit lead on who. would do a better job of handling the. economy and it's worth noting that his. strength is particularly pronounced. among some of those demographic groups. who were talking about earlier like. young voters and Hispanic voters those. are two disproportionately lowincome. groups who say that Donald Trump is. better on the economy than KLA Harris by. a pretty considerable margin even though. those groups still narrowly back Harris. overall so that suggests a potential.

opportunity for Donald Trump and a. liability for KLA Harris does this poll. show any potential weaknesses for Trump. oh of course I Donald Trump is a deeply. flawed candidate who very well might. lose this election and lost the last one. after all the poll shows that a majority. of Voters have an unfavorable view of. him as has been in the case in every. time Sienna poll we've ever conducted a. majority of Voters say he's a risky. choice for president not a safe choice. Harris does have some advantages on the.

issues too she has a big advantage on. abortion which is the second most. important issue after the economy and. the poll she has a big advantage on. Democracy another major issue for voters. and one that was a big factor in the. Democratic success in the midterm. elections and Democrats also have an. enthusiasm advantage in the poll they. were Liker to say they would vote than. Republicans as well and in a closely. fought election that could yield a. slight turnout advantage that could. easily be decisive so there are reasons. in the poll why KLA Harris May.

ultimately win it's a really close race. and Donald Trump is no political jug or. not despite all of the big advantages. that he has in this race in terms of. people wanting change and him being the. candidate to offer it so this poll is. not all bad news for Harris and shows as. you said just how close this race really. is yeah and close honestly is a little. bit of an understatement the polls today. are closer than the polls were in 2020. than they were in 2016 2012 2004 20. really any election in the era of modern.

polling and KL Harris is still a. relatively undefined candidate voters. want to hear more about her and they're. going to hear more about her over the. next two months so there's a lot of room. for the race to shift as close as it is. today so Nate given everything that. we've talked about you know the Harris. strategy in this campaign has relied on. being this idealized Democrat not too. fleshed out but standing for the popular. elements of a theoretical Democratic. candidacy if that isn't working anymore.

or isn't working as well as she'd hoped. it does raise a lot of questions about. her strategy I mean it seems like what. this poll is telling us is that just. attacking Trump relentlessly for example. is is not enough that she has to become. something clearer in the minds of Voters. you know in other words she can't afford. to get away with just saying I'm not. Trump you know she has to actually. articulate what it is that she stands. for I think there's a lot of Truth to.

that I mean I think voters are going to. need to have some clear sense of who she. is and what she stands for there's still. time for her to provide that answer to. voters but if they don't the Trump. campaign is going to do it the other. issue though is that they probably do. eventually need to make this campaign. about Trump again Harris is is a much. more popular candidate than Joe Biden. was but. fundamentally an up or down referendum. on Donald Trump is the clearest path to. a democratic victory in this election. that's how Joe Biden won last time was.

by almost being irrelevant and then. allowing voters to cast an up or down. vote on whether they wanted four more. years of Donald Trump if Harris can get. back to that point where she's not so. important and the only thing voters are. doing is voting on whether they like. Trump or not that could be a win for her. but in order to get there she needs to. sort of solve some of these problems and. make voters comfortable with her so that. they can then let their dislike of trump. be the decisive factor in the race and. the debate coming up is the first of.

many opportunities that she'll have to. close that sale over the final two. months of this election and to that. point the debate on Tuesday what should. we be looking for. Nate one easy way to look at the debate. is just whether it's fundamentally about. Harris or whether it's fundamentally. about Trump if after the debate we're. talking about Harris's flip-flops on the. issues or whether she's too far to the. left or her handling of immigration. she's in trouble she's not going to win. the election any of those issues the. most she can do is be able to move past.

them to sort of satisfy those concerns. enough to focus on. Trump so if we're talking instead about. Donald Trump's conduct on January 6 his. views on abortion project 20125 if we're. talking about his behavior like was the. case after the first presidential debate. in 2020 that's a sign that not only did. Harris sort of satisfy these concerns. that we've been talking about but she. also then allowed the election to Pivot. back towards Donald Trump Trump in the. end Harris needs this election to be.

about Donald Trump for her to win she. has to be able to satisfy the concerns. about her and then turn the focus back. on. [Music]. him well Nate Sabrina thank you very. much we'll be watching thanks for having. me. [Music].

we'll be right. back here's what else you should know. today on Friday the judge overseeing. Donald Trump's criminal case in. Manhattan postponed his sentencing until. after election day a significant victory. for Trump as he tried to overturn his. conviction and win back the White House.

in his ruling judge Juan mean cited the. quote unique time frame this matter. currently finds itself in he had. previously planned to hand down Trump's. punishment on September 18th just 7. weeks before election day while the. decision will avert a courtroom. spectacle before the election the delay. itself could still affect its results. keeping voters in the dark about whether. Trump will eventually spend time Behind.

Bars and in Venezuela the opposition. leader who was widely seen as the true. winner of this Summer's presidential. elections fled the country to Spain. edmundo Gonzalez is globally recognized. as the winner of Venezuela's. presidential elections in July but that. country's election board instead. announced Nicholas Maduro the incumbent. as the. winner last week mad Euro's government. issued a detention order against.

Gonzalez accusing him of quote crimes. associated with terrorism and prompting. him to go into hiding since the election. more than 2,000 people have been. arrested and dozens have been killed in. protests throughout the. [Music]. country today's episode was produced by. Carlos PR and Nina Feldman it was edited. by Rachel quer with help from Patria. willins contains original music by Rowan.

Nimo and Alicia BBE and was engineered. by Chris Wood our theme music is by Jim. bunber and Ben Lanser of. [Music]. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Sabrina tavernes see you tomorrow. [Music].