The Ad Campaign

from New York Times I'm Michael baboro. this is the. [Music]. daily by the time it's over this year's. race for president will cost at least. $3.5. billion of that the single biggest. expense will be campaign ads today Shane. goldmacher on the story that both.

campaigns have been telling 30 seconds. at a time through those. [Music]. ads it's Monday November. [Music]. 4th Shane hello hello it's really nice. to have you in a room uncluttered by.

others by others fantastic from the. round table glad to be here yeah and of. course I'm teasing the round tables were. great this episode just FYI is running. on the day before the election and for a. very long time we have wanted to tell. the story of this campaign through. advertisements that both campaigns have. relied on to try to win over voters and. it feels kind of fitting that we're. going to do do that in the last 48 hours.

of the race when everyone who has a TV. especially in a swing state is being. flooded with TV ads in your mind what. has been the story of advertising in. this race I think the story of. advertising has chiefly been about. television advertising still still so. you might think in this social media era. of Instagram and Tik Tok and Facebook. and all these other platforms that that. would be the dominant way that the. campaigns are spending their money but. it's not it's still on those 30second.

television ads and if you look here in. the last days the campaign actually hit. a milestone according to ad impact whose. data we use to track the television. spending which is there's been a billion. dollars of Television ads just since. Comm Harris entered this race in July. wow a billion dollars since July just on. Old Antiquated television advertising. yeah and so if you want to tell the. story of the 2024 race between the two.

campaigns I really think there's nowhere. better to look than the stories they've. been telling on television well I wonder. if you can just explain why television I. mean not to sound like I don't. appreciate the medium but we do tend to. think of it as something that's. increasingly obsolete in an era of cord. cutting why is television still the. preferred medium for these two campaigns. given all the theoretical options the. first answer is that it works right that. there's a massive amount of testing on. both sides on what can you do to move.

people emotionally and it's this. combination of images and words and. sounds and feelings that you can evoke. in just a short time presented to people. where they often can't look away right. you have to watch it as you're watching. football right these live television. have become especially important that's. one reason the other is this is an. opportunity for the campaigns to present. their Vision to voters in a real. distilled version there's no. interference from the media there's no. interference for even the influenc. you're trying to have your message.

framed by no pesky factchecking no pesky. factchecking you can put something. that's not quite exactly true on the. screen and you are still able to deliver. that message to people at volume mhm. Shane with all that in mind tell us the. story of how these two candidates Donald. Trump K Harris have been and no doubt. still are in these Final hours using. this precious powerful resource of TV. advertising to try to move the. electorate I think it's important to. tell that Story the same way the two.

campaigns are which is over time so. Trump from the beginning to the end has. mostly been attacking KL Harris but her. campaign has a trickier task which has. been to introduce her and then also to. Pivot and to attack Donald Trump and the. urgency when she first became a. candidate was so intense right her. allies and her campaign they needed to. get up on the air wve to tell her story. and the first one I think we should talk.

about begins in early August and runs. basically for most of the month through. the Democratic Convention she grew up in. a middle- class home so the ad begins. with grainy photos of Comm Harris's. middle class upbringing she was the. daughter of a working mom and she worked. at McDonald's while she got her degree. and then she appears as an adult in. another middle class scene with. construction workers Donald Trump has no. plan to help the middle class just more. tax cuts for billionaires and that's ju. deposed with images of Donald Trump.

surrounded by wealth being president is. about who you fight for and she's. fighting for people like you I'ma Harris. and I approve this. message describe what this ad is. fundamentally up to for the voters. watching it this ad is trying to begin. one of the big contrasts of the entire. Harris campaign which is to say that she. is from the middle class and therefore. for the middle class Donald Trump is. from the billionaire class and therefore.

for the billionaire class and this is. trying to address a lot of things for. her it's trying to introduce her story. but it's also trying to address one of. the chief vulnerabilities that she. entered this race with which is which is. the economy voters are unhappy about the. state of the economy and even if this ad. is not technically about the economy it. is very much about the economy it's. saying that she understands the economic. pinch that you're in and eventually the. story they will tell through advert iing.

is that she has plans to help you. there's actually a second introductory. ad that I think we should include which. is addressing the other big. vulnerability that she entered this race. with which is immigration and in short. it's an ad all about how tough she's. going to be on the border KLA Harris has. spent decades fighting violent crime as. a border the ad begins with images of. her early Roots as a prosecutor and over. and over she's standing next to other. members of law enforcement it shows the. guns that they've conf.

the. drugs and as president she will hire. thousands more border agents and crack. down on fenel and human trafficking and. then it pivots to what she says she will. do as president which is all about tough. tough tough fixing the border is tough. so is kamla Harris I'm kamla Harris and. I approve this message so this ad as a. companion to the ad we just talked about. sort of says yeah yeah yeah she's from. the middle class but if you care about. the Border.

kamla Harris is a Law and Order border. person which of course is no doubt. designed to address what happened with. KLA Harrison 2020 when event for. president we've talked about this a lot. on the show when she was on stage and. said that she would support. decriminalizing the Border she got a. complicated history with the subject I. think the words they used in the ad are. important she was the Attorney General. of California but the way they described. that job is not that she was a consumer. advocate for 40 million Californians or.

the chief law enforcement officer even. she was a border state prosecutor and. she took on drug cartels is that. accurate I mean is that really what her. Focus was it was definitely part of her. job it's why they have the images in. this ad it wasn't the only job she had. it's the part of the job they're. choosing to highlight in this important. medium of a television ad okay so that's. how Harris has used tv ads to introduce. herself at the beginning of this race. when she Subs in for Joe Biden how do.

her ads change once she's well into the. campaign the next ad is actually from a. group that's supporting her and it does. something that they did in a lot of. Television ads which is it uses regular. people to attack Donald Trump usually. former Trump supporters raising. questions about why they would consider. supporting him again and eventually. ending on supporting KLA Harris so phase. two of the advertising on of KLA Harris.

is to move off of mere introduction into. frontal assaults on Trump frontal. assaults on Trump driving a contrast and. using regular people to tell that story. out of money I know 20 of you and you're. rich as hell the ad begins with a white. woman watching Donald Trump and shaking. her head in disgust As Trump speaks to a. bunch of Rich donors and tells them how. much he's going to cut their taxes I am.

not rich as hell I work hard I scrape to. get by Donald Trump it then shows that. same woman grocery sh but kamla Harris. has plans to help us she's going to. crack down on price gouging and cut. taxes for working people like me I voted. for Donald Trump before but this time. I'm voting for comma ffac is responsible. for the content of this ad what's. interesting to me about this ad Shen is. that it's using Trump's own words again. against him right he's telling rich.

people I'm going to give you tax cuts. which I think most people generally find. a little off-putting and it employs this. device of the disillusion Trump voter as. a standin for the viewer it's a. permission structure for the small. sliver of undecided voters who might. have voted for Trump before to say it's. okay there are other people just like. you other people who don't think that. Donald Trump is good anymore mhm and. that KLA Harris has an actual plan to.

help you if you talk about that first ad. it showed her in this middle class. scenery this ad started airing in. October the first ads were in August you. have policies that have emerged you have. a story you're telling that she adds. specifics to solve the problems in your. life okay so that's stage two for Harris. I think that brings us to right now with. Harris's advertising what ads in your. mind capture com Harris's closing.

argument to voters to be clear I don't. think there's any one ad that can. capture her closing argument but if. we're telling the story of comml. Harris's ad campaign you couldn't tell. that story without including abortion. this was the central issue in the 2022. midterms where Democrats overperformed. in state after State and it's very much. a part of the closing argument she's. making now both on the campaign Trail. and in Paid Television ads and this ad. begins with a closeup of the face of a.

woman telling a painful story when I was. five I began getting sexually abused by. my stepfather and he got me pregnant. when I was 12 three lines of white text. show up in a row Donald Trump killed. roie Wade girls and women all over the. country lost the right to choose even. for rape or incest 64,000 pregnancies. from rape have occurred in states with. total abortion bands and Trump did this.

women and girls need to have choices. with KLA Harris we do I'm KLA Harris the. message from the woman on screen very. Stark very simple is in Trump's America. I would have had to give birth to that. baby that product of rape and incest and. in KLA Harris is I wouldn't have had to. that's exactly right this is the kind of. ad that Democrats think can help turn.

out voters they need and women in. particular in droves and it's not the. only add- on abortion there's a whole. series of them but it is one of the. important closing messages the campaign. is making Shane to the degree that you. can say based on your reporting how. effective have these ads from kamla. Harris been you mentioned that she. Begins the race with vulnerability on. the economy and she addresses that in an.

ad on immigration she addresses that in. an ad and then she sees an opportunity. when it comes to abortion so to the. degree that anything here is measurable. what do we know the ads are designed to. do two things both strengthen your. strengths and address your weaknesses. and we can see in polling that KLA. Harris has pulled better after hundreds. of millions of dollars of ads in these. Battleground states on the economy. against Donald Trump on some of those. key questions that they are tracking.

inside the Harris campaign like not just. who do you trust more on the economy but. who do you think cares more about people. like me which is what those middle class. ads are so much about she has improved. and in some cases is ahead of him. fascinating on these economic measures. the power of advertising the power of. advertising immigration has been less a. focus in recent weeks and she hasn't. closed the gap on immigration the same. way she has on the economy and an. abortion Democrats are already ahead. it's a matter of getting people to think. about that is isue when they go into the.

voting. [Music]. booth so to answer your larger question. yes absolutely these ads are making a. difference and we know that not just. from polling about the economy but these. focus groups that campaigns hold and. where voters are repeating back verbatim. the same stories that the ads have been. [Music]. telling of course the Harris campaign is. only half the ads that people are seeing.

the other side is Trump and they're. telling an entirely different. [Music]. story okay let's do the second half can. I use the restroom before we take a an. ad break so to. speak but we'll be right back. [Music].

okay Shane let's now turn to Donald. Trump's ads and the story that he has. been telling through those ads well I. think it's worth noting that he's not. reintroducing himself to the country. after nine years on his third. consecutive presidential gazi ads about. the young developer brashley making his. way through New York there was Zero of. that there was Zero of that instead it. was all about KL Harris and the.

candidate she replaced Joe Biden and the. first ad that I think we should look at. isn't one that came out right after she. enter the race but I think is one of the. more revealing ones about their attempt. to tie her to Joe Biden and the economy. their bid nomics led to the highest. inflation in 40 years it begins with an. image of comml Harris on stage with Joe. Biden as he turns looking almost lost. incomes down unemployment Rising and a. recession now headed our way images of.

economic struggles at the gas pump. warnings about a potential recession yet. kamla Harris is clueless we are very. proud of bonics bonics is. working and it ends with a clip of KLA. Harris herself declaring that bomic is. working right this ad is very clearly. designed to say at the precise moment. that KLA Harris is taking over for Biden.

and saying to the world you've got a new. nominee Democratic party and America. this ad from Trump says no you don't you. have another Joe Biden yeah I think one. of the main Battlegrounds of this. campaign is about who can better. represent change and this ad is very. much about saying comml Harris cannot. represent change because she represents. Joe Biden and this ad would seem to. exploit the reality that even though. kamla Harris when she takes over for Joe.

Biden's nominee is trying to say I'm my. own person and put some distance between. herself and Biden inevitably you can't. really distance yourself from the person. you've been vice president to it's one. of the trickiest parts of this entire. campaign for her how do you run your own. distinctive campaign for president with. a new agenda when you have been in. charge for the last three years I mean I. think it's worth lingering for a second. on why KLA Harris is a candidate in the. first place. which is that Joe Biden became so.

distrusted mostly over his age in Acuity. but also over his policies that he was. pushed out largely by the Democratic. party and so attaching her to him is a. tough thing for her where does the Trump. advertising strategy go next in the race. if stage one is saying more of the same. stage two is saying she actually will be. different in one important way which is. that she's worse that she's too liberal.

they ran a series of ads on immigration. but eventually they pivoted to a. surprising issuea will give criminal. illegal aliens taxpayer funded. transgender surgeries surgery which is. transgender rights every transgender. inmate would have access they've run. tens of millions of dollars of ads. featuring an old clip of KLA Harris when. she was running for president and. running to the left in a Democratic. primary talking about her work to expand. band access to surgery for inmates who.

say they need that as gender affirming. care the Trump team has used this clip. in numerous ads and I think the one that. we should talk about is actually almost. a meta ad it's a discussion of the. impact of Trump's ads on a person who's. been mostly supportive of KL Harris who. is Charlamagne the god the host of The. Breakfast Club right and just to set. this up charlam man the god himself has. been watching TV during the campaign. watching sporting events and seeing the.

original Trump ads criticizing Harris. for supporting gender affirming care for. prisoners and when he's seeing these ads. he's disappointed by the position that. he sees Harris taking Comm supports. taxpayer funded sex changes for. prisoners surgery he's not just. disappointed he says that these ads are. breaking through to him hell no I don't. want my taxpayer dollars going today. because of not just what it's saying the.

unbelievability of it from his. perspective but when he's watching the. ads air during a football game Kamala is. for they dim president Trump is for you. I'm Donald J Trump and I approved this. message in that sense Shane this ad is a. kind of inversion of what the Harris. campaign was doing with that former. Trump voter who watches him on video and. is disillusioned by what she sees when. he says he's going to give tax breaks to. rich people here is a Harris supporting.

celebrity saying he is disillusioned. with what she Harris has said it's the. same permission structure for Harris you. have a white lady saying you know what. maybe I can actually vote for comml. Harris and here you have a black man a. prominent black man questioning if comml. Harris is too far left for you and just. to say if your goal is to portray k. Paris as overly attuned to Liberal.

values which is Trump's goal this seems. like a pretty effective ad and issue to. perhaps zero in on what Trump's advisers. and allies say is that this issue of. transgender rights Works across a swath. of demographic groups that they want to. win this year that you see from the use. of Charlemagne that it has some. resonance with black men that it codes. across the electorate her as too far. left but that it also has a specific.

appeal to Suburban women to moms whose. daughters are playing in sports they. think this is the kind of thing that. could also blunt the abortion message. that Harris has been using a counter. message for those same Suburban women. who have swung toward Democrats and he's. hoping don't swing even further got it. and and Jane how is Trump closing out. his campaign in ads what are his closing. argument ads over the past past week or. so Trump is closing this campaign the.

same way he began which is talking about. KLA Harris and the ad that I think is. most revealing and most representative. uses both some of her words and some. real images of the last four years to. tell a story a flood of illegals. skyrocketing prices the ad begins with a. very dark grainy set of images and then. it shows would you have done something. differently than President Biden during. the past of KLA Harris herself on The. View when she was asked what she would.

do differently than Joe Biden there is. done a thing that comes to mind and. that's when the narrator jumps in and. says nothing will change with kamla and. it talks about weakness and War and more. illegal immigration and even more taxes. right and this ad is a total full circle. for Trump's advertising not just because. he's focused on Harris as you said but. because he's once again putting her. right back in League with Biden he.

started with Biden he's ending with. Biden and at the core of his campaign is. this really old-fashioned question in. politics which is are you better off. today than you were four years ago. that's at the center of this and it's. saying you can't be better and she's not. going to be better because she is the. same given that so much of the Trump. advertising has been focused on Harris. I'm curious how you measure the. effectiveness of it I mean what he's. been up to quite clearly is saying.

Harris is basically Biden Harris is not. change on any of these key issues. whether it's the economy or immigration. and Harris is left of left the left of. left is the one that I would start with. which is that if you look in polls on. average voters think that Donald Trump. is not too far out of the mainstream. ideologically rather a larger share of. Voters think that she is out of the.

mainstream than think that he is out of. the mainstream now some of that is where. voters might have begun in this race but. he has pushed to exacerbate that with. these. advertisements and so these late stage. ads they're also about what are you. going to think about when you go into. the voting booth she wants you to think. about Trump she wants you to think about. abortion she wants you to think that. she's going to think about you if she's. president he wants you to think about. what you don't like of the few years. that you are unhappy with the direction.

of the country that she can't even. articulate how she would be different. than Joe Biden based on how much time. you spent with all these ads do you have. either a gut or analytical sense of. whose ads have been better and of course. by better I mean more effective I'm. going to give you a cop out which is I. definitely don't know the answer as to. whose ads have been more effective it is. true that the Democrats have aired more. television ads that's important that in.

these last weeks you're seeing record. shattering amounts of money going into. television ads and there is more overall. spending for Harris than for Trump and. we keep talking about television ads but. these are also digital ads that are. running on devices and on that Medium. her campaign has been far outstripping. the Trump operation on spending on. YouTube and some of those platforms you. can see online she has run meaningfully. more but I think she had more to do in. her advertising campaign and he's really. just focused on her and in that regard.

he definitely had an advantage that he's. hoping money's not going to overwhelm sh. you and I don't live in a swing state we. live in the non swing District of. Brooklyn New York I see you in my. neighborhood and so our TV viewing. experience is not representative of what. it's like to feel these ads on your TV. screen all day long if you live in. Michigan Pennsylvania Arizona Georgia if. you're in one of those States and you. watch TV how many many ads are you going. to be subjected to today endless I mean.

it is back to back to back political. advertisements there are some stations. that are running out of space to sell. the campaigns it's so bad in those. states that some campaigns the Harris. campaign has been buying National. Television ads and the Trump team too in. order to buy spots that are unavailable. to buy just locally if you want to get. on that big broadcast you can't just buy. it in the Philly Market or the Atlanta. Market you have to buy the ENT entire. country so people have seen some of.

these ads because the economic. inefficiency is like you know what it's. worth it we want to squeeze one more. spot into that show so those are the ads. we're going to see you're going to see. it everywhere. huh and then just like that right I mean. this is the weirdest part of campaign. Seasons the election happens and all. that advertising goes away and it's back. to ads for Calis and McDonald's and. forers right and it happens just like.

that yeah it's over just like. [Music]. that well Shane thank you for watching. all of these ads so we didn't have. to we appreciate thank. [Music]. you we'll be right.

back here's what else you need to know. Day on Sunday the final times Sienna. poll found that the presidential race. remains stubbornly deadlocked across the. seven swing States likely to determine. its outcome but it showed that late. deciding voters are favoring kamla. Harris over Donald Trump by nearly 10. percentage points the poll showed that. Harris is gaining ground in key Sunbelt. States including North Carolina and.

Nevada but that Trump has erased her. small lead in critical Rust Belt states. like. Pennsylvania meanwhile and we got a. phony press we got a lot of crooked. people out there we're fighting like a. son of a gun we're fighting they want to. they want to they are fighting so hard. to steal this damn thing in their final. hours of campaigning Trump doubled down. on his false claims of election fraud.

warning his supporters without evidence. that Democrats would seek to steal. Tuesday's election and claiming that he. should have never left the White House. after his first ter I shouldn't have. left I mean honestly cuz we did so we. did so well we had such a Harris for her. part asked Americans to ignore Trump's. growing claims of Fraud and I would ask. ask in particular people who have not.

yet voted to not fall for his. tactic which I think. includes um suggesting to people that if. they vote their vote won't. matter suggesting to people that somehow. the Integrity of our voting system is. not intact so that they don't vote. during a news conference on Sunday the. vice president said that Trump was. cynically seeking to discourage. Americans from voting everyone must know.

that their vote is their power to. determine the outcome of the election. and their vote will count it does. matter today's episode was produced by. Luke Vander pluke Mary Wilson and will. Reed it was edited by Lexi di contains. original music by Maran Lozano and Rowan. nisto and was engineered by Alyssa. Moxley our theme music is by Jim runberg. and Ben Lansford of.

Wonderland that's it for the daily I'm. Michael B see you tomorrow. [Music].