The 2026 Battle for Control of Congress

From the New York Times, [music] I'm. Michael Baro. This is the Daily. [music]. As 2026 gets underway, so does a midterm. election year for control of Congress, a. campaign that will determine whether. Democrats [music] can operate as a check. against the extraordinary power of. President Trump or whether [music]. Republicans can hold on to every lever.

of influence in Washington. Today, my colleagues Annie [music]. Carney and Shane Goldmacher on the. opportunities and perils for both. parties. It's Wednesday, [music] January 7th. Annie, 2026 elections, here we come.

>> Here we come. >> Or I guess here we are. This episode is. going to be kind of a road map and a. primer for this year ahead in American. politics because while a lot of eyes are. on Venezuela right now in Congress, which you cover, the focus is on the. reality that it is an election year, a. very big midterm election year coming up. in November. And November sounds very. far away, but as you know well in.

politics that really isn't very much. time at all and there's just a ton at. stake in this election. So we are. turning to you to talk about the. Republican side of that election and how. Republicans in Congress are now thinking. about planning for or perhaps dreading. this coming election. >> I think that dreading is the correct. word here. Republicans ended last year. feeling very pessimistic about their.

chance of holding on to control of the. House and that's in a really large part. because their party has failed to fix. what ails the American economy right now. >> namely high prices. >> high prices high utility bills Americans. can look at their receipts and they are. not doing well right now. >> right the receipts for the failure are. literally the receipts. >> correct. And nothing better illustrates the dire.

situation the Republicans are walking. into this election year than the fact. that Republicans set themselves up to. start the year on an issue, healthcare, that has for years been their biggest. weakness politically. >> And just explain that why Republicans. are going to be kicking off 2026 on. healthcare. Because in the final weeks. of 2025, congressional Republicans were so. despondent about their overall failure.

to confront affordability that a handful. of them actually break with their party. leadership and join with Democrats to. force a vote on extending subsidies to. the Affordable Care Act. So, this vote. is coming to the floor against Mike. Johnson's wishes and highlighting an. issue where voters by and large think. Democrats are much stronger when it. comes to healthcare. >> Right. And just as a political matter, what the Republicans did in the final. weeks of December was enormous because.

they basically voted to endorse in a. real sense the Affordable Care Act, which is public enemy number one for. many congressional Republicans and has. been for a decade. And and you're. suggesting that they're going to. reinforce that approval for the ACA in. the coming days. Yeah, Republicans have been divided. about what to do about the ACA for. years, but this is how much swing.

district moderate Republicans are. feeling the heat that they feel like. they needed to join Democrats and to. fight for these extensions or risk. losing their seats. And just because. we're on the subject, will the. Republicans breaking with their party. help pass the extension of these. Affordable Care Act subsidies in the. House in the next couple days? >> It could pass in the House, but it. doesn't seem that Republicans are going. to pass it in the Senate. And the. president would never sign this into.

law. He would not want to reward. Democrats who have made this ACA. extension the central message of their. entire political strategy. >> Right? So, we're going to begin this. year in the next couple days with. Republicans having a big public battle. among themselves. one that's gonna probably create a. spectacle that reinforces the Democratic. strategy that Republicans don't get it.

on affordability, especially the. affordability of health care. That's how. Republicans are starting this election. year, >> right? I have to say that Tony Forbzio, Republican pollster who works for Trump, put out a memo last summer warning. Republicans at all levels that if they. did not get behind these ACA tax. credits, it would be political. malpractice and a disaster for the. party. >> Now, some Republicans will say it's. still early. There's a long way to go to.

November. They have plenty of time to. change the conversation, but this is. most definitely not how they wanted to. start off this election year. >> Well, put this fight over healthcare. into the larger much larger context of. dread that Republicans seem to be. feeling right now heading into the. midterms, even if, as they say, they. have plenty of time in theory to try to. recover their footing. So this is, you know, the latest chapter. in a much bigger story about an.

incredibly frustrated, demoralized party. right now. All year the White House has. been driving this strategy of doing. redistricting across the country, starting with Texas. And this was always. viewed as something that you do if you. are worried about winning the regular. maps as they are drawn now. you would. only bother to redistrict if you thought. it would give you a political edge. So, the White House pushed this in states. across the country where they thought. they could gain a few seats,

>> right? By literally writing Democrats. and their voters out of these. congressional maps, >> right? But here is where a Democratic. leadership that has widely disappointed. voters for a long time really showed. some backbone and pushed back. Hakeim. Jeff, Democrat of New York and minority. leader, was very aggressive in. supporting tit fortat on redistricting. If they're going to do Texas, we're. going to do California.

>> So, it's basically set off an arms race. that is adding up to pretty much a wash. H. >> it's not clear that the redistricting. battles across the country have given. Republicans anywhere near the margin. that they would need to feel confident. about keeping the House, >> right? Which means Republicans have to. try to win the oldfashioned way, running. on their record, >> right? And they don't have a lot to run. on. >> They've had full control in Washington. for a year now, and they've really only.

passed one bill, the big beautiful bill, >> which is something. >> It's something. and they want to. highlight the tax cuts, but that bill. also included deep cuts to Medicaid that. affect their voters, >> right? >> So, it was an unproductive Congress. They've basically just said yes to. everything that the White House wants or. just been totally cut out of the White. House's decision-making process, whether. it's shutting down federal agencies or. carrying out last week's military. operation in Venezuela, which Congress.

was kept totally in the dark about. They've given up their power and they've. just become miserable in the process. [snorts]. >> So, the morale in the House is just. terrible. And when when Marjorie Taylor. Green announced that she was resigning. and leaving early, a lot of her. colleagues kind of felt jealous. privately, they would tell me like that. sounds great was [laughter]. was how a lot of House Republicans felt. when they heard that news. And are many.

of them thinking about or deciding to. follow her out the door? >> So what she did is, you know, announced. that she's leaving early before the end. of her term, which really doesn't happen. unless you have a health issue or a huge. scandal. I mean, it's, you know, your. voters elected you to serve out your. term. So I don't think anyone else is. going to follow her out early. But a lot. of people are choosing not to run again. >> Today, I am announcing I'm not running. for reelection. One of the biggest. examples this year would be Don Bacon.

>> Suddenly I feel emotional. It's been a great 10 years. >> He's kind of an oldfashioned Republican, a moderate from Nebraska. And he. announced that he's going to retire. That's a huge blow to Republicans. chances of keeping the House. >> Why? >> Because that seat will likely go to a. Democrat in the next election, >> right? >> But it's not just moderates like Don. Bacon who are leaving Congress. We've. seen some lawmakers who call themselves.

ultra maga head for the exits. Elise. Stefonic in the days before Christmas. said she's going to retire at the end of. her term. >> Having a member of the leadership team. come out and suggest that the speaker. was a liar that he was a political. novice that he was all sorts of things. that Elise Stefonic said is just unheard. of. >> She's been incredibly fed up with. [music] Speaker Johnson's leadership of. the House. has been criticizing publicly. and saying she's felt mistreated by him. >> Um I I don't exactly know why Elise.

won't [music] just call me. I texted her. yesterday. Um she's upset. >> privately. She's been frustrated with. Donald Trump and his treatment of her. [music] You have Nancy Mace, >> Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace of. South Carolina has an op-ed in the New. York Times entitled, "What's the point. of Congress?". >> who has also been publicly critical of. [music] Mike Johnson. She writes in. part, quote, "Nancy Pelosi was a more. effective House Speaker than any.

Republican this century. >> She's not going to run for reelection, [music] trying to run for governor of. South Carolina instead." So, those two. women really just speak to how. demoralized a lot of Republicans, even. those who [music] have fashioned. themselves after Trump, are feeling. right now. >> [music]. >> So with House Republicans being both. unable to conquer the affordability. issue. >> Mhm. >> and becoming miserable in their jobs in. the House, some of them retiring and.

making the seats very getable for. Democrats. Others like Nancy Mace, Alise. Stefonic retiring and I assume the seats. will just be filled by other. Republicans. What is. >> the strategy. >> for the Republicans in the midterms? What are they saying their message is. going to be if they don't really like. the message that's attached to them at. the moment? >> Look, a lot of them think that. affordability will be the strategy and. they have time to talk about it in a. convincing way to their constituents.

even if the president is calling it a. hoax. We'll see if that's going to work. for them. Then, you know, I think for. Republicans in competitive districts, the strategy is going to be saying, "I. stood up to my party. I force this vote. on affordable care act subsidies. extension. That will be their case. they're making, >> right? >> Which will be a hard sell because at the. end of the day, the subsidies will not. pass. So, I mean, what they did amounts. to a little more than messaging, which. can only take you really so far if the.

lives of your constituents are still. worse off while you were in office. And. then they're left with this hope that. Democrats run people like Zora Mamani. who are far-left and progressive and. socialist and convince their voters that. that's the alternative broadly speaking. and brand Democrats as radicals even. when in some districts, you know, they're absolutely not. So, what do you. think the best case scenario for. congressional Republicans, especially in.

the House, will be over the next 10. months or so? I mean, I'm not asking you. to guess numerically what's going to. happen in November's election, but in. the Republicans minds, how does this go. really well and how does it go real real. bad? >> Right. I mean, I'd say that the best. case is that they buck conventionalism. and hold the House. They lose a few. Senate seats, but hold the Senate. And I. guess the worst case scenario, which I.

think is the one that more Republicans. are really entertaining, is this bad blood between Republican. rank and file members and Speaker Mike. Johnson, could lead to, you know, ousting their own speaker before the. midterms. That's a possibility. could. mean a loss of the House by a wider. margin than anyone even thinks. And then. Democrats controlling all of the key. committees in the final years of Trump's. presidency, which would mean the. oversight committee and the judiciary. committee potentially doing real.

investigations and demanding information. from all these agencies that are not. sharing information with Congress. They. would have subpoena power. So it would. change the dynamic in Washington. dramatically for Democrats to regain. control of the House. >> Right. Thus the Republican dread. >> Correct. [music]. >> Well, Annie, thank you for that. I.

appreciate it. >> Thank you for having me. Happy New Year. >> Cheers. after the break. Shane Goldmarker on. [music] the Democrats. We'll be right back. Jane Michael, thank you for representing. the Democratic side of the ledger in our. conversation here. If, as Annie Carney.

just told us, Republicans are filled. with dread about their prospects, especially in the House in this year's. upcoming midterm elections, doesn't that. almost certainly mean that Democrats are. filled with whatever the opposite of. dread is? And what would that be? >> I would say that Democrats are broadly. filled with an anxious optimism. And the. reasons to be optimistic are pretty. clear. They see overperformances in. special elections victories in November.

and Trump's slipping approval ratings on. the most important issues to voters. prices and the economy. And they say. this is the kind of political. environment the Democrats were hoping. for at the end of Donald Trump's first. year. >> One where he seems to be openly fumbling. on the economy and mocking the idea of. affordability. not just mocking it at. times, but showing that he is focused on. other things that are personal to. himself. Whether it is. >> Trump Kennedy Center,

>> yeah, Trump Kennedy Center, gilding. parts of the Oval Office, building a. ballroom while the government was shut. down. That was his focus at the end of. 2025. And 2026 began with a focus on. foreign affairs, on Venezuela, right, >> with the arrest of Nicholas Maduro. and. it doesn't exactly fit with the America. first branding that he ran on. This is. hardly a kitchen table issue for most. Americans. And I think all of these. things have fed into this image of a.

president who is focused on himself, on. [snorts] his reputation in history. rather than the personal finances of the. Americans who voted to make him. president. And so I think that Democrats. are starting to think that that image of. a president who is distracted, who is. self-indulgent, that that is starting to. break through. And the trust that voters. have had recently and historically in. the Republican party to fix the economy. is waning. And plus, just historically,

the party in power loses seats in the. midterms, right? And the margins. Republicans have are so small and so. slim that even like a nonwave year. should give Democrats a majority. >> And when you say margins, what you. simply mean is of course that there are. literally only a handful of Republicans. in the Republican House majority. So. even if they lose what three, four, five. seats, Democrats suddenly control the.

United States House of Representatives. And so the environment is the reason for. optimism right now for Democrats. But. the anxiousness comes from some of the. other factors which is well what are. those seats and what does the map. actually look like? And historically. there have been a ton of seats that have. been up for grabs in the House of. Representatives and that number is. shrinking and shrinking and it's really. important because it means even if there. is a quote unquote blue wave. Let's say. Democrats overperform by seven or eight. percentage points from what they did in.

2024. Well, that doesn't capture as many. Republican seats as it might have a. decade ago. >> And if you take all the seats that are. in the toss-up category and the leaning. Democratic seats, and you give them all. to the Democrats, right, all the most. competitive seats, they end up in like. the low 220s and you need 218 seats in. the House for a majority. So, even. sweeping these tossup seats just gets. the Democrats over the line. Mhm. And is. this reality that even a blue wave won't. get Democrats that many seats, is that.

just the extension of the conversation. we've been having with you for years? The fact that there's been so much. partisan gerrymandering, there just. really aren't any purple seats left. >> It's partly partisan gerrymandering. It's also sort of a broader trend in. America, which is self- sorting by. voters. The blue areas are getting bluer. and the red areas are getting redder. And so even if you're not intending to. jerrymander people, they've self-. selected into. >> right, we talked about this the self.

gerrymandering. >> Yeah. Into their own communities. And so. it's that combination that's led to a. shrunken map that leaves less margin for. error for Democrats. >> What else beyond a map that makes it. kind of hard for anybody to really pick. up all that many seats will make. Democrats anxious about 2026? >> The candidates, right? The Democratic. party has an unusually large number of. intense primaries that they're facing. next year because when you're tossed. from power, you have some introspection. What did you do? Where did you go wrong?

And who do you want to represent you in. the future? >> And across the map, there are these. primaries that are testing some of the. disagreements that the Democratic party. has. And so, who emerges in those races. is also going to be a pretty important. factor. You know, we said the Democrats. have a pretty good chance to take the. House. It's really hard for them to take. the Senate at the same time. Why? Republicans have 53 seats in the Senate, and there just aren't very many.

opportunities for the Democrats to win. the Senate in 2026. There's Susan. Collins, who is the only Republican. senator in a state that Donald Trump. lost in 2024. You've got North Carolina. It's an open seat. You've got Sherid. Brown, the former Democratic senator. from Ohio, running again. But like even. if they won all three of those states, Democrats are still not back in the. majority. That would only get them back. to 50, >> right? And 50 is not enough when the.

president is Republican because JD Vance. would break the tie in favor of. Republicans. >> And Democrats have, by the way, their. own vulnerable seats up too, right? They. have to win all those and hold their own. seats. And there's real fear in House. races and in Senate races that the party. will end up nominating people who are. either outside the mainstream, who have. bad baggage, and end up costing them. potentially winnable races. >> Let's talk about some of these. primaries. And what you're hinting at is.

a fight that both parties have been. having for such a long time, which is is. it healthier for a party to have. primaries where candidates sort out. which kind of Republican, which kind of. Democrat they want to be in the general. election or is it just distracting and. costly and does it damage the candidate. for the general election? It sounds like. Democrats have kind of made that. decision for themselves. You're saying. there are a lot of primaries. What are. the main lines of conflict in these.

primaries in a place for example like. Maine? >> There's a number of lanes the Democratic. party has disagreements over. The first. is ideological. Are you a progressive? Are you a moderate? The second is a. generational fight. Are you from the old. guard? Are you from the new guard or the. next generation? And one of the places. that that is playing out is in Maine. You know, my father was a seventh. generation mayor who stood up for people. who couldn't stand up for themselves. >> You've got the two-term Democratic.

governor who's seen as a moderate. Janet. Mills, sort of the perfect vision of. what a traditional top recruit is. >> Trump rips [music] away health care from. millions of Americans and drives up. costs on everything from groceries to. housing [music] to trucks and cars. >> She's a proven winner. She's the kind of. person you would exactly want to run in. that kind of place. This election. [music] will be a simple choice. Is. Maine going to bow down or stand up? I. know my answer.

>> And yet, she's facing a pretty stiff. primary challenge from a guy named. Graham Platner, who's gotten a lot of. attention. >> When I tell people around here that I'm. running for Senate, sometimes the. initial reaction is, "What the?" But. right there, [laughter]. >> an oyster farmer, a veteran. >> I did four infantry tours in the Marine. Corps in the Army. I'm not afraid to. name an enemy and the enemy is the. oligarchy. >> But also has gotten in a lot of. controversy over a tattoo that he. tattooed over that had Nazi symbolism. over a bunch of Reddit posts that he'.

made in the past. And there's a lot in. the party say so what? He's unvarnished. He's real. He looks like he solves all. the problems that we've identified that. the Democratic party had in 2024. I. truly do believe that we can build a. system that is going to represent. working [music] people. The number one. response has been, "Well, thank God. somebody's going to do it.". >> And guess who held one of the first big. rallies for him? Bernie Sanders, who's. playing in a number of these Senate.

primaries. And so, who emerges in these. states is a real real focus and concern. for both sides of the party. Right? There are people who point at Janet Mill. say, "Okay, sure, she looks like a great. recruit, but guess what? She would be. the oldest freshman senator in American. history." Hm. So, right after Joe Biden, do you want to go back to that or do you. want to take a risk at this really. young, potentially inspiring guy, but. who has said things that are easily. clippable in Republican attack ads,

self-escribing themselves in ways that. cast him as a radical and Republicans. just love to use that kind of term, especially when candidates have used it. in their own words. >> Right? This is what Annie described as. the kind of fantasy of Republicans that. they can turn the entire 2026 Democratic. slate of candidates into far-left out of. the mainstream mom Donnie Platner on and. on. >> Yes, exactly. >> But we have no idea whether the reality.

is that these Democratic primary. challengers might end up winning the. primary and winning the general. election. I would think about it as. there are two competing wings. strategically in the Democratic party. Wing one wants to focus entirely on who. on paper is the most electable candidate. in 2026 because it is so urgent to take. back power and have a check against. Trump and have a check on Trump. That. let's do that. Whoever in each state.

looks like they are likeliest to win, do. that. and let's hold off on this. conversation of populist versus. progressive versus institutionalist. Let's not have that fight in 2026. >> Reminder, not having that fight in 2024. Pretty problematic. >> Ended up with Trump, right? And and so. they say that fight's going to happen in. the presidential primary in 2028. Right. now, we don't want that fight. And. there's a whole wing that says actually. the primaries in 2026 are the appetizer.

to a main course in 2028 that have this. fight. >> These populist these lefty candidates, we need to prove that we can win in the. midterms in order to have a chance to. sell the broader Democratic electorate. that the left can win in 2028. And so. that's why all of these primaries for. the Senate have become so interesting. and so important and real proxy tests.

for the direction of the Democratic. party beyond the midterms. >> Right. Okay. So, with all of this. extremely useful context that justifies. the term anxious [clears throat]. optimism, I wonder if you can give us. the best case scenario for Democrats in. these midterm elections, House and. Senate, and then the worst case scenario. for them. >> I mean, how much fun can we have with. this? >> That's entirely up to you, Mr. Goldmacher. I mean, I think the best. case scenario for Democrats is that.

Donald Trump continues remodeling. bathrooms and focusing on things that. voters don't care about. That they beat. Susan Collins, that they have a wave of. these new recruits, they win dozens of. seats in the House, and they take power. entirely in the Congress next fall. >> Um, [snorts]. >> that's the best case. >> That's the best case scenario, right? politically like there is just so much. that could go wrong for both parties. still that the extremes of what is the. best case scenario for Democrats and for.

Republicans, they're pretty extreme. >> Okay. Well, speaking of worst case. scenarios, what is it for the Democrats? >> It's that Donald Trump starts focusing. on the economy that he sends checks to. everybody in the country and he calls. them Trump checks and they come in. October just as everyone's casting. ballots. He releases oil from the. strategic petroleum reserve and gas. prices plummet. his new Federal Reserve. chair cuts interest rates. Everyone buys. homes. Things suddenly seem cheaper. And. people credit Donald Trump for fixing. all of these things all at once. And.

Republicans don't just hold all those. Senate seats we're talking about. They. flip Democratic seats and grow their. Senate majority. Democrats somehow come. up short in the House despite all of the. strategic benefits. And they have a. 4-year term for Donald Trump and. complete Republican control in Congress. I don't think either of those extremes. are the likeliest outcome and I think. that the Republican outcome is even less. likely between those two. But there's a. big range of possibilities for 2026.

I'll say. [music]. well Shane thank you very much and happy. new year to you. Happy new year. [music]. >> On Tuesday, in a speech [music] to. congressional Republicans, President. Trump beseeched them to try to keep. control of Congress in this year's. midterm elections [music] in order to. protect himself from a Democratic.

majority. >> [music]. >> You got to win the midterms because if. we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be. I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach. me. Uh, I'll get impeached. We'll be right back. Here's.

what else you need to know today. [music]. On Tuesday, European officials expressed. alarm over the Trump administration's. suggestion made in the days since they. ousted Nicholas Maduro [music] that the. United States could next take over. Greenland. >> The real question is by what right does. Denmark assert control over Greenland? What is the basis of their territorial. claim? That [music] suggestion was. reinforced by Trump's top adviser,

Steven Miller, who told CNN, that as. [music] a matter of national security in. its own hemisphere, the United States. has a rightful claim [music] to. Greenland. For the United States to. secure the Arctic region, to protect and. defend NATO and NATO interest, obviously. Greenland should be part of the United. States. And so, that's a conversation. that we're going to have as a country. That's a process. In an unusual joint. statement signed by leaders from. Denmark, [music] France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Spain, and Poland,

European officials [music]. rejected Miller's logic and declared. that Greenland's future should be. determined only by Denmark [music] and. the people of Greenland. [music] Today's episode was produced by. Jessica Chong, OA Cherved, and Caitlyn. [music] O'Keefe. It was edited by Rachel. Quester, contains music by Dan Powell. and Alicia Etub, and was engineered by.

Chris Wood. [music]. That's it for the Daily. I'm Mabaro. See you tomorrow.