Swing State Voters Are Souring on Biden

from The New York Times I'm Michael aaro. this is the. [Music]. daily today a major new campaign poll. from the times conducted in the swing. states that may determine the 2024. presidential race show that Donald Trump. is now leading President Biden almost. across the. board my colleague Nate Co says the.

results are less a reflection of Trump's. growing strength than they are of. Biden's growing. [Music]. [Applause]. weaknesses it's Monday November. [Music]. 6th Nate nice to have you in the studio. Michael always a pleasure Nate when this.

episode publishes on Monday we will be. pretty much precisely a year out from. the general election of the 2024. presidential race just under one year. and that is why this poll is beautifully. timed so tell us about the scope of this. latest installment of the New York Times. political polling. operation we conducted polls of the Six. States that we think are likeliest to.

decide the presidency the swing States. the swing states can you just name them. Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Arizona. Georgia and Nevada five of those Six. States flipped from Donald Trump in 2016. to Joe Biden in 2020 and decided the. election in the president's favor and. just to say for listeners who may be. wondering because of the timing of this. poll the results here about to walk us. through don't capture the impact of the. war between Israel and Hamas.

don't measure something like the effect. of President Biden's strong support for. Israel on voters in these swing States. that's something we're going to have to. keep watching over time it's not in this. poll exactly okay so what exactly did. this Battleground poll of these six. essential States fine Topline Top Line. Trump LED in five of the Six States Joe. Biden only LED in Wisconsin and if you. take all the plls together Trump led by. an average of four percentage points 48. to 44%.

and because everyone's always curious. about this when we think about margin of. error is that a big deal it seems like a. big deal yeah that's a trump lead. outside of the margin of error given the. Hefty sample that we have with all of. these polls taken together so this poll. finds that in all the states that are. very likely to be responsible for. determining who the next president is. Trump has a. meaningful lead a year out modest but. meaningful. okay what does this poll reveal about.

why former president Donald Trump is so. ascendent in so many of these states in. this. moment well I think the poll reveals. that it's probably best to flip that. formulation around explain that Donald. Trump is just as weak as he was four. years ago by the numbers but Joe Biden. has gone from being a strong candidate. candidate we used to talk about as being. the electability candidate to being a. badly damaged candidate who voters think. is too old to be president who voters. think hasn't done a good job on the. economy.

and who voters no longer view favorably. as they did four years ago so let's go. through these one by one they're all. important starting with age I mean the. poll shows that voters overwhelmingly. believe that Joe Biden is too old to be. president More than 70% of Voters in our. poll agree that Joe Biden is too old to. Be an Effective president and it's worth. noting we asked this exact same question. in these same States three years ago. ahead of the last election and back then. only 30% of Voters said Biden was just. too old wow that's a huge swing it's a.

huge swing and it's the kind of Swing we. don't see very often in our polarized. country right and to State the obvious. the fact that so many more voters now. perceive him to be old means that they. think he has deteriorated and they've. seen a lot of him over the last three. years too to potentially inform that. view he does have stumbles he does. sometimes trip there are videos of it on. social media all the time fairly or. unfairly voters have bit by bit come The. View that he's just older than they're.

willing to tolerate and when it comes to. age I have to imagine you ask the same. question about Trump who's pretty. similar to Biden's age how do voter feel. about that well voters do not think that. Donald Trump is too old to be president. but interestingly enough the amount of. Voters who say Trump is too old today is. now higher than the number who thought. Biden was too old 3 years ago when they. happen to be the same. age so voters may be handling this. consistently and maybe Americans have a.

very complicated relationship to the. question of age also fair but no matter. how you cut it this is a problem. meaningfully statistically in the poll. for Joe Biden this is not just a a. question hovering in the air that people. talk about it's a thing that's showing. up in the poll absolutely so that's age. which of Biden's problems should we. focus on next potentially related to age. is a whole list of problems related to. how voters think about Joe Biden as. person MH voters have gone from having a.

favorable view of Joe Biden to an. unfavorable view they've gone from. thinking he has a good personality and. temperament to not thinking he has the. personality and temperament to be a good. president they have doubts about Hunter. Biden about half of Voters believe that. Joe Biden profited from Hunter Biden's. dealings abroad even though there's no. evidence even though there's no evidence. of that I mean if you step back and take. all these questions together four years. ago a majority of Voters liked Joe Biden. thought he was acceptable and they. didn't like Donald Trump they didn't.

like his conduct they didn't like him as. a person four years later they don't. like either of these guys so Joe Biden. has lost this advantage that he used to. have interesting over Donald Trump. Donald Trump's not stronger in fact on. many of our questions he's weaker. himself but that advantage that was. really Central to Joe Biden's ability to. win the. election is not here in our poll right. now you can imagine this might be. confusing to some of our listeners given. that Donald Trump faces the Avalanche of.

criminal charges and indictments that he. does that Joe Biden who faces No. indictments and no. charges would be suffering from the. perception of problematic character or. the behavior of his son given what's. happening to trump it is surprising. voters do think that Donald Trump is. guilty of federal crimes and they don't. like him either his ratings are also. down again from three years ago there's. nothing about how bad Donald Trump is.

that necessitates that voters today like. Joe Biden even if maybe if we press them. on it they'll go ahead and concede that. the allegations against Trump are worse. right so you're saying don't do the. incorrect simple calculation that Donald. Trump's problems his legal problems. result in Joe Biden having favorable. views among voters on any of these. issues that's just not how it works no. voters subraction from one doesn't. become addition for the other voters. aren't going to judge Biden on a curve. against Donald Trump who faces countless.

criminal indictments right put simply. voters don't compare the two candidates. in this poll they are making judgments. on each of them individually absolutely. okay I think that brings us to the. economy we've talked a lot on the show. about the fact that most Americans don't. approve of Biden's handling of the. economy even though in many respects the. econom is doing pretty well so does the. poll deepen that understanding well it. reveals yet again that voters do not. think the economy is is doing well.

whatever you think of the macroeconomic. statistics it also shows that voters. pretty plainly blame Joe Biden for that. they say that his policies have hurt. them personally it also shows that. voters think that Donald Trump would do. a much better job handling the economy. how do you think and what do the voters. TOS well it's also worth noting that the. voters believe that Donald Trump's. policies helped them personally which. was something that was true in our 2020. polling interestingly as well the same. Dynamic where voters doubted that Biden. was going to do anything for them. believe that Donald Trump would or did.

that's not something that's changed what. seems to have changed though is that as. the economic picture has worsened to. their minds during Biden's presidency. that difference has become all the more. important to them and may also be worth. noting under this broad umbrella of the. economy is that voters have a very. pessimistic view of the state of the. country more generally and Joe Biden ran. four years ago on the promise that he. would return the country to normaly and. I don't think that's the way voters see. it they still overwhelmingly believe. that the country has headed off on the.

wrong direction and as long as that's. true an incumbent president is going to. face some challenges in persuading. voters to give them a second term which. of these three broad areas that we have. just talked about do you think the poll. shows to be the most important and. potentially therefore is dragging Biden. down the most to be entirely honest I. think it is really hard to tell which of. these three issues is most important in. no small part because almost all of the. voters who are hurting Biden believe all. of these things fascinating so how do. you really tell which is most important.

if everyone believes it one thing I can. say is the share of Voters who say the. economy is most important has gone up a. lot over the last year in these same. states where we did our Senate polling. last fall H so compared to last fall. voters care more about the economy a. serious weakness for Joe Biden so all in. all what we're looking at here just to. summarize the ground we've covered is. pretty broad disapproval of President. Biden both on a personal and a policy. level and Trump's support neither really. Rising nor falling but kind of just.

hovering in the same place it was the. last time he ran for president and all. of that shakes out into a pretty. meaningful Advantage for Trump. disadvantage for Biden in these swing. States in these swing States right now. with a long ways to go okay we'll return. to the long ways to go in just a little. bit n you said all this is an across. theboard problem for Biden but I wonder. where you're seeing it most acutely in. which group or groups of Voters you're. absolutely right that these problems.

that Joe Biden faces are very Broad and. yet they have manifested very narrowly. among just a few demographic groups. which ones young voters black voters and. Latino voters what exactly are we seeing. among these three categories of Voters. well we're seeing levels of support for. Donald Trump that would have been. unimaginable just a few years ago you. know in 2020 Joe Biden won young voters. by more than 20 points now the race is. essentially tied among young voters in. the polling wow Biden won more than 90%. of black voters in it was huge part of.

his victory absolutely and now he's. around 70% and not only are those voters. sort of undecided Donald Trump is. currently pulling around 20% of black. voters in these polls so this poll finds. that black voters are not just kind of. fleeing Biden they are running directly. they're willing to tell the pollster. Trump which is not something that I've. have seen before huh and then among. Latino voters there's a similar decline. there as well Biden won more than 60% of. the Hispanic vote in these states in.

2020 and now he's barely winning at all. barely winning at all with latino voter. single digit lead potentially according. to this poll in these states could lose. the Latino vote not out of the question. but he does lead the Latino vote in. these states to be clear those do feel. like potentially historic swings among a. longtime foundation of the democratic. party young voters black voters Latino. voters and we've talked about this trend. a little little bit especially among. black and Latino voters but my sense my.

recollection from talking to you is that. this has been a kind of a a slow kind of. creeping problem from the Democratic. party what you're describing here feels. much more potentially seismic yeah it. feels like you know over the last decade. or so that we've seen these signs of. softness and weakness for the Democrats. and this is really the first time that. it feels like you see something like a. break in the polling now it's not an. election result yet and there's a long. time but if these polling results were. it would represent a pretty fundamental.

change in American electoral. politics Nate does the poll get at why. this might be the case why this shift. might seem so seismic in this poll there. have been all kinds of theories we've. talked about them on the show about why. this shift has been happening kind of on. a slow basis but because it's happening. on such a potentially big one right now. I wonder what the poll tells us about. the why so it's a really hard question. you know as as I mentioned because all. these voters believe all these VAR ious. negative things about joee Biden it's.

very hard to tell which of these things. is really the one thing that matters. more than anything else if it's even. true that one of those things matters. more than anything else what I do think. the poll suggests is that the problems. are more about Joe Biden and the economy. than about the Democrats in general or. ideology one set of questions that we. asked that really shapes my thinking on. this is that we didn't only ask voters. whether they prefer Joe Biden to Donald. Trump we also asked whether they would. prefer a hypothetical unnamed Democrat.

to Donald Trump if Joe Biden didn't run. and we also asked how they would vote in. a hypothetical matchup between kamla. Harris the vice president and Donald. Trump interesting and both the generic. Democrat and KLA Harris far better than. Joe Biden overall that's F and they in. particular far better than Joe Biden. among the sort of Young Black and. Hispanic voters that were talking about.

and in fact this is kind of crazy but if. Joe Biden merely won over voters who. support kamla Harris over Donald Trump. but that who do not currently support. Joe Biden all of Joe Biden's problems. among young black and Latino. voters go away what that really seems to. say is that this is a Joe Biden problem. especially among these groups of Voters. we just talked about and this would seem. to add fuel to the pretty widespread.

complaint among some Democrats that. there should have been a real primary. this year that it should not have just. been a coronation of Joe Biden that. there should have been an Open Primary. the calendar shouldn't have been changed. to benefit Joe Biden as it was by the. Democratic party that just saying Joe. Biden again given the issues we're. talking about here didn't necessarily. seem like such a good idea this is. absolutely going to add fuel to those.

Democratic concerns about whether Joe. Biden is the right candidate to be the. party's nominee next year it doesn't. show that he can't win he still has very. real paths to win paths that for many. Democrats could be pretty. straightforward but I do think the poll. shows that it'll be more challenging for. Joe Biden to win this election than it. probably ought to be given that he's an. incumbent given how unpopular his. opponent is and given that he beat the. same person last. time.

we'll be right. back Nate you just suggested that this. poll reveals some real challenges for. President Biden heading into the 2024. election but that there are also real. paths for victory we're going to discuss. both of those I want to start with how. state by state since this is a poll of. six Battleground States what we have. just learned could translate into a loss. for Biden against Trump so just explain. that well as we've mentioned the poll. shows Biden with this weakness among.

Young Black and Hispanic voters and as a. consequence the results by state follow. a very predictable and straightforward. pattern where Joe Biden suffers the. largest losses in relatively diverse and. young States Nevada and Georgia two. states where nearly half of the. electorate will be non-white are states. where Joe Biden is badly. underperforming and he won those two. states last time and they were essential. to his Electoral College Victory exactly. and it's hurting him enough for him to.

be trailing in less diverse States like. Pennsylvania and Michigan which are. predominantly white but where Democrats. still absolutely depend on support in. places like Philadelphia and Detroit. which have large populations of black. and Latino voters exactly and um right. now he trails in those States because. he's fairing so poorly among those core. democratic constituencies so if you're. the Biden campaign you look at this and. you say if I can re-energize my support. among young black and Latino voters I'm. going to rapidly make gains in these Sun.

Bel States and hopefully I can get. myself just over the top in these more. you know traditional Battleground States. like Michigan and Pennsylvania and how. would if you were the Biden campaign and. I imagine they're having this very. conversation would you do that oddly. enough I think recent re-election. campaigns offer a pretty good playbook. here you know in both 2004 and. 2012 Barack Obama and George W bush. stared down the prospect that their. bases weren't going to be sufficiently. mob mized and so they ran a polarizing.

campaign on the issues that Define their. party to try and reenergize people who. ought to have their core supporters and. bring them home for example what George. W bush did in 2004 was he campaigned on. gay marriage and gun rights to try and. remobilize and re-energize his support. among Evangelical and Rural conservative. voters right I remember it well Bush. literally worked to put bans on gay. marriage on the ballot in as many states. as he could knowing that would bring out. Christian conservative voters it did it. did and gay marriage got banned in those.

States as well it did and Democrats you. can imagine doing something very similar. in this election on an issue like. abortion in fact in some ways this is. the Playbook that Democrats used in the. midterms last year now I should say I'm. not 100% convinced that a rerun of the. democratic midterm Playbook will yield. the same result that Democrats got in. the midterm last year in these states. why not this is a less ideological group. of Voters that we're talking about now. we're almost by definition talking about. people who did not vote in the midterm. last year the sort of black and Latino.

voter who was motivated by democracy and. abortion last fall. is someone who's still supporting Biden. in our polling today the kind of voter. who has left Joe Biden is the sort of. person who wasn't motivated by these. issues to turn out and vote fascinating. now you can imagine two interpretations. here one is that these people would. never pay attention to a midterm but if. they heard the same thing they would be. energized by it in which case maybe the. same Playbook on a higher louder with. more media attention in a race they know. about will succeed in doing the same.

thing or alternately they did hear the. message they weren't motivated by it. they care about the economy and that. particular one's not going to work so. right both of those things are possible. but definitely things like this are in. the Playbook what are the things that. Joe Biden can talk about that young. black and Latino voters like that you. don't believe will alienate your more. solid support of white moderate voters. that's a challenging question for Biden. to figure out it is a ing question but. it's also not the worst problem that you.

could have we're talking about trying to. win back traditional democratic voters. including voters who are still open to. voting for someone like KLA Harris or. unnamed generic Democrat this shouldn't. be that hard to do but in the scenario. where Biden can't find that issue to. bring these voters back to him in the. Democratic party does he lose not. necessarily I think he still would have. one narrow but clear path to win the. three predominantly white Midwestern.

Battleground States Pennsylvania. Michigan Wisconsin Biden is relatively. close in these states and in fact he. holds a lead in Wisconsin and. interestingly among likely voters he. pulls into the lead in Michigan which. reflects that so many of the voters who. are dissatisfied by Trump are voters on. the periphery of politics who Trump. can't necessarily count on even though. he earns their support in our polling so. if you're the Biden campaign and you. just can't remobilize the same level of. support that you had among young black. black latino voters you can still hope.

to do just well enough among the older. white voters who represent Joe Biden's. strength to muscle out an nrow win in. these states especially since these are. among the likeliest voters in the. electorate and what does he have to do. to make sure his appeal among those. voters remains as strong as possible. this is the group where I think the. abortion and democracy path that they. ran in the midterm last year gets Biden. the farthest whether it actually gets. him over the top or not I don't know but. I think that these kinds of Voters are.

exactly the kinds of relatively moderate. voters who flip to Joe Biden because. they don't like Donald Trump and you. just reinforce those reasons and I think. that you have a very credible path to. keep them that's been demonstrated in. previous elections under a somewhat. similar circumstance okay let's turn to. Trump and how he capitalizes on the. advantages that he clearly has based on. the poll of these Six States well Donald. Trump is ahead right now so you can look. at all the reasons you're leading today. and and reinforce them and that strikes.

me as a pretty plausible path you can. imagine him trying to reinforce concerns. about Joe Biden's age and his capacity. to handle the job you dwell on how. everything in the world and in the. country is a disaster and how if I were. president none of this would have. happened you can try and reach out to. Black and Latino voters in a way that. maybe you haven't in previous elections. I'll note that I don't know if you saw. this but do you remember how back in. 2015 Donald Trump kicked out Univision. from a press conference I think I do. he's going to interview at that same. person next week huh somebody in his.

campaign told him that would be a good. idea I think someone told him that would. be a good idea because it has a huge. latino audience obviously because he a. huge liuto audience obviously but also. this is now his path to victory in a way. that wasn't true four years ago you have. to make sure if you're the Trump. campaign that at the very least you. don't offend voters in the way you did. four years ago one thing I wish we had. in our poll by the way um is some. measure of when's the last time you were. offended by Donald Trump because back. when Donald Trump was doing poorly among. these groups. it was like there was a controversial or.

racist remark in the news every week. right and that hasn't been true for a. while and I think that could be an. important part of why he's able to make. gains among these voting blocks when he. hasn't done so in the past you're. raising an interesting possibility. that's just occurring to me as you're. saying this Nate which is that a Donald. Trump who's a bunch less present in our. world which he is for a variety of. reasons some strategic some because he. spends a lot of his time in a courtroom. these days on all these trials is. perhaps a stronger presidential. candidate for a number of these groups.

absolutely and I think that if you step. even farther back it could be the case. that Donald Trump's political messaging. and his populist brand of conservatism. has had the potential to have very broad. appeal to Latino and black voters the. whole time and that he held himself back. among these groups being by. intentionally alienating them right by. occasionally insulting them frontally. exactly and I it's it's funny if you. think about these elections. chronologically in 2016 he was offensive. to both black and Latino voters and did. terribly among both in 2020 he still.

campaigned against immigration but it. was no longer the focus of that election. black lives matter defund the police was. he does way better among Latino voters. while still struggling among black. voters and now we have a political. moment where I'm not sure either of. these issues are at the core of the. campaign in the news right now and now. Donald Trump's doing better among both. interesting what you're really. describing is a potential brand of trump. populism that is more inclusive it's. less insulting. and it's a clear path to Victory when.

combined with what could end up being. kind of daily assaults on Biden's. weaknesses his age voter perceptions of. the economy that could put together an. unusually broad Coalition in this moment. and one that would represent a real. turning point in modern American. political history just explain that cuz. the turning point in modern American. history that's a big phrase since the. enactment of the Civil Rights Act our. politics have been defined by high. levels of racial polarization they have.

also usually been defined by a great. degree of generational polarization and. the kind of politics that Donald Trump. appears to be promoting right now may. represent not a complete elimination of. that pattern but a fairly significant. reduction in racial and generational. polarization in a way that would clearly. distinguish this election from all those. we've had previously and because we're. talking about young and non-white voters. voters that are going to represent. growing shares of the electorate in the.

future I do think we would look back on. it as representing a turning point. because of the consequences that would. have for subsequent contests right the. RW is rolling around in my head if. Donald Trump does what this poll. suggests he might be able to do. especially with young black and Latino. voters that could amount to a real. alignment between the parties it would. represent a significant change in what. the Democrats can think of as a reliable. Cod and it would represent a huge. victory for republicans in their ability.

to have broadened their Coalition I want. to reemphasize the word would would if. this happened and we just laid out why. Biden has a credible way to reassemble a. lot of these voters right but if these. poll results were mirrored in the final. election results this would be a. realigning election and here's the part. where we have to say it is one year off. and a ton can change and realignment is. a really big word in our politics but it. would be merited if the election were. tomorrow which it's not it's not I'm so.

glad you came back to that but I just. want to reinforce it one more time I. mean this is a. dissatisfied disaffected disengaged. electorate that doesn't like their. choices these are the textbook. conditions for political volatility it's. also the conditions for political. upheaval right this is when realigning. elections happen but it's also the. conditions where voters really could. flock back to where they. were depending on any number of things. that happened between now and then I. look at these results and I see the. potential for huge changes whether.

that's from the last election result or. from these polls to the. next well Nate thank you very much thank. you for having me. [Music]. Michael. [Music].

we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know. today Hamas officials said that an. Israeli air strike hit a densely. populated refugee camp in central Gaza. on Sunday killing at least 47 people and. wounding dozens of others if confirmed. it would be the second time in a week. that Israel has struck a gazen refugee.

camp as Israeli forces Advanced on Gaza. City they offered Palestinians a 4-Hour. window to safely flee the area Israel. said it offered a similar window on. Saturday but that Hamas exploited it to. attack Israeli. troops. and. pal pal please pre Palestine in. Washington DC tens of thousands of.

people gathered for the largest Pro. Palestinian protest in the US since the. War Began the protesters demanded a. ceasefire in the war and the end to US. military aid for. Israel much of the crowd's anger was. directed at the Biden Administration. which has expressed strong support for. Israel in its campaign against Hamas in. a speech the leader of a Muslim Civil.

Rights group warned Biden that voters. would judge him on how he handled the. war and our message is no ceasefire no. votes no ceasefire no v no ceas fire no. v no ceas fire. [Music]. no today's episode was produced produced. by muj zadii and AA chv with help from.

Luke Vander plug it was edited by Mark. George and Rachel quer contains original. music by Marian Lozano and Rowan nisto. and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley our. theme music is by Jim runberg and Ben. lansburg of. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael.

Boro see you. [Music]. tomorrow.