Six Weeks to Go

from The New York Times I'm Michael. babbaro this is the daily the race for. the White House has kicked into. overdrive tonight with ax as the. presidential race enters its final 45. dayses it's good to be back in. Pennsylvania hello Pennsylvania how are. we doing Pennsylvania we assemble a. campaign Roundtable with my colleagues. from the politics desk today Maggie hman. Shane goldw Walker and Nate cone make.

sense of the week's biggest developments. the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. today for the first time in four years. you know the Democrats have always taken. for granted that they're going to get. our vote no matter what and the. Republicans are fancy themselves as the. working People's Party former president. Trump has now faced two apparent. assassination attempts it's sort of. mindboggling to it's Friday September. 20th Maggie Shane NE thank thank you all.

for doing this thank you for having us. thank you yeah so just to explain what. we're doing here it feels like we've. reached the point in this campaign where. the news is coming at us so fast that. our normal format of telling one story a. day is not quite keeping up and so to. meet this moment we've recruited you3 to. come kind of walk us through the thicket. that is the news at this phase of the. race so it's an experiment for us we. invented something it's brand new it's. called the political Round Table. congratulations wow what an honor to be. part of the first yeah y the first of.

any kind ever no ever ever ever yes in. history so let's start with a very big. new poll co-conducted by the New York. Times that came out just a few hours ago. could each of you just tell me what you. took from this poll I think that this is. a poll there's actually two polls and. there's some contradiction between the. two of them the first poll is a national. poll and it shows a tide race which. isn't really a surprise and it shows no. movement basically since the debate a.

week ago even though voters. overwhelmingly said that comml Harris. performed really really well so that's. the first part of the poll is that worth. lingering on that people told us in this. poll KLA Harris did great and it had. been our understanding that if she did. great she'd get a bump in the poll. nationally she doesn't yeah I think. that's definitely worth lingering on the. fact is that overwhelmingly voters said. she did really well something close to. 70% of Voters said she performed well in. this debate far more than the 40% who. said the same of trump that means a big. chunk of the people who said she did.

well are not voting for her but that's. also part of the story which is that she. might have done better in the debate but. it didn't actually change how people. said they were planning to vote in the. head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump. and it wasn't just on that Top Line who. are you going to vote for it was on a. whole Suite of issues who do you think. is better on the economy on immigration. on abortion on Democracy all of these. issues were essentially unchanged by. this debate that was watched by 67. million Americans the most who watched. anything since the Super Bowl and yet no.

difference in the head tohe why not Nate. well it's a pretty polarized country and. the number of undecided voters did tick. down from our previous poll to this one. so a lot of Voters are making up their. minds and they're mostly falling to the. place where they were before um this is. a matchup that neatly divides voters in. a lot of ways we have a populist older. white conservative against a younger. black and South Asian woman from. California who has liberal views on all.

the issues so you know there's room for. someone to be torn between these two. options but as far as choices go this is. a relatively clear one okay but this. pulled at something else which was it. told us about how KLA Harris is doing in. the very specific crucial State Maggie. of Pennsylvania what do you take from. that result what's striking and as Shane. said is it's contradictory to what we. saw in the National poll where they're. tied she's up it's 50 to 40 in.

Pennsylvania in Pennsylvania and one of. the reasons that might be is the. Democrats have done relatively better. with white voters this cycle than in. previous cycles and Pennsylvania is a. particularly white State compared to the. rest of the country and so if you look. at how Joe Biden did with white voters. in 2020 it was slightly less Hillary. Clinton substantially less and so if she. has made some modest gains there that. could be why huh does that feel right to. you Nate because I think think my.

inclination would be to think that if. kamla Harris is tied with Trump. nationally I would not expect her to be. doing better in a swing state where I. would just imagine demographically. things might be stacked a little bit. against her look I wouldn't expect it. either and you know they are polls. they're subject to a margin of error. it's possible that if we did the polls. again that they would come a little. closer but this doesn't come from. nowhere in the 2022 midterm Democrats. swept the key Senate races including. winning Pennsylvania by Five Points even. while Republicans won the house p vote.

so there could be a change from the last. election maybe not all the way to this. poll result where Harris does Four. Points better in Pennsylvania than she. does Nationwide but one where the gap. between the key Battleground States and. the Electoral College is a little. smaller than we're used to I was just. going to say I mean there's like two. stories you can tell about the race. right now that I think that these polls. capture and we talk about how polls are. a snapshot this snapshot shows a really. close race nationally and maybe a slight. Edge for comml Harris not just in. Pennsylvania but looking at other polls. AC those key Battlegrounds around the.

great lakes and so how do you get the. story of what that means next and it's. not at all clear to me what it means. next CU we got here and it's look K. Harris just had an incredible two months. right she's gotten almost exclusively. positive reviews and coverage she had a. strong debate her favorability rating in. Pennsylvania is above 50% all these. things are going in her favor and yeah. you get all of that and she's tied and. just maybe marginally ahead in these. really really important States it's it's. not just that she's had a a great series.

of weeks although she absolutely has. Trump's had a terrible series of days. Trump had a debate in which he was. spreading a a baseless claim that. Haitian immigrants in Springfield Ohio. are eating pets and doubling down on. that ever since he posted inexplicably. on Truth social I hate Taylor Swift who. is an incredibly popular figure yeah a. lot of people don't hate her a lot of. people don't hate her and now he has. done any number of self-destructive. things while also facing one clear. assassination attempt when a parent.

assassination attempt normally speaking. a politician would get some measure of. sympathy or voters feeling sorry for. them or feeling more open to them and. because of Trump's own behavior he just. is not okay are you guys a little bit. reigning on KLA Harris's Pennsylvania. parade because I'm hearing if I'm. reading between my lines you all say. she's up in Pennsylvania but not that. much and after a really great run and. Maggie you're saying trumps had a rough. couple of days so she could be up even. more well I think the poll shows that a.

lot of the vulnerabilities that we've. talked about before are still there for. KLA Harris you know in the last episode. that I was with you on WE noted that. more voters thought Harris was more of. the same rather than change and Harris. has tried to pitch herself as a new. generation of political leadership that. can take the country in a New Direction. but the poll still finds even in. Pennsylvania that most voters think. she's more of the same and most voters. think Donald Trump is change and to me. that just shows that she is swimming a.

little bit Upstream in this election one. related issue here that may be another. reason to rain a bit on Harris's parade. is that Harris's strength in this poll. comes out of white college graduates. she's still doing really poorly among. white workingclass voters just as badly. as Joe Biden did or worse than Joe Biden. four years ago both in Pennsylvania and. Nationwide white college graduates. that's a different story now they're. somewhat insulated from the economy they. may have the disposable income to. survive Rising prices.

but it's also to me a possible. indication that maybe we're talking. about a lot of overeager democratic. voters who are looking to pick up the. phone right now after a debate and after. a month where Harris feared really well. and that perhaps might explain why she's. doing well in Pennsylvania a state I. think of as being very working class. having a lot of Voters who didn't go to. college that's right okay something. happened right before this poll and. that's that the FED lowered the interest. rate something we've been waiting for. and talking about for a really long time. in theory that should make certain.

prices especially the price of a 30-year. fixed rate mortgage start to come down. when it comes to the economy and how. voters view these two candidates is that. too little too late if you're kamla. Harris is that a frustrating bit of. timing for Donald Trump or does it not. much matter at all I mean Donald Trump. was complaining about it as political. yesterday so it tells you how he sees it. he's clearly frustrated and thinks that. it might help Democrats and could it. help haris sure it could help haris uh. but I think you are going to see Trump. and Republicans claim that this was some.

form of interference by democrats yeah I. mean I think that the interest rates. lead to changes in some of the few. economic numbers that people experience. in their life right this is the kind of. thing that it juices the economy in a. way that like people don't see. immediately but it can change how people. feel right I think it's going to take a. bit of time in Pennsylvania only 22% of. Voters thought the economy was excellent. or good in this survey there's a lot of. ground to make up here before the. economy starts being anything like an. advantage for Harris voters have.

believed for years that the economy was. bad I don't know that they're going to. change their views on this very. quickly I think we're going to go take a. ad break do you want to give it to us. we'll be right back. [Music].

all right let's turn to our next piece. of business here which is news of. something that kind of sounds like not. news because it's the non-endorsement. from a very big Union in the US with 1.3. million members in the transportation. industry so tell us that story sure the. International Brotherhood of teamsters. they are in a variety of States across. the country hugely influential for 30. years indors.

Democrats this year Shan O'Brien the. head of the teamsters for his own. personal internal political reasons. started flirting with Donald Trump as a. possible endorsement he he went to Mar. Lago to meet with him a lot of his. members are in southern states and they. are more republican-leaning and he is. trying to appeal to them and show that. he is not just going in one political. Direction so it is not a surprise that. he spoke say at the Republican National. Convention right because he had been. drifting toward Donald Trump now his.

advisers said that he asked to speak at. both party conventions the Democrats. after he spoke at the Republican. convention did not have him and he gave. a a pretty aggressive anti-corporate. speech at that convention right I was in. the room y but nonetheless it was seen. as a boost to Donald Trump because it. tied him to organized labor and. workingclass voters a proxy for. workingclass and working class voters. and the union has now decided not to. endorse this cycle. this is at.

minimum a harm to Harris and it is. helpful to Trump to be able to say as he. has been for the last day Rank and file. members support me now he said that on. Long Island where the Local Teamsters. affiliate had actually endorsed Harris. but it doesn't matter it gives Trump a. talking point and that's the strategy. here they didn't exactly peel off the. International Brotherhood of teamsters. but they did get neutral and that's good. enough for them them yeah I mean I think.

it's a reflection of the shifting voting. patterns of union members this is Union. leadership reflecting union members. which is in some of these trade workers. they are increasingly been for Trump. right they released some of their own. internal surveys about where they were. even in when Biden was in the race there. was a big chunk in favor right so if you. look at Union leadership across the. country is almost universally for. Democrats this is an exception the. exception is a non-endorsement right. most are not going anywhere near Trump.

but it's a reflection that the. membership has shifted on these issues. and again for Trump that's a win he. wants to be making inroads with those. voters and he wants people to have a. past that it's okay to consider him and. I think that that's what helps look it's. also a positive for Harris that a person. who spoke at the Republican National. Convention didn't go all the way to. endorsing Trump right right Nate why. does it matter that the Teamsters Union. has in effect de facto kind of signaled. an affinity for Trump and not give the. Democrats what they may have viewed as.

their kind of Birthright which was the. endorsement of such a powerful longtime. Democratic leaning Union I want to go. back to something Shane said which is. that the teamsters conducted their own. surveys of their members and previously. they found that most of their members. backed Biden only narrowly now they find. their members back Trump over Harris by. a wide margin now not all of these. surveys are scientific some of them. attempt to be others are just a straw. pole but this is part of a larger.

pattern that we see in our data which is. a further decline in Democratic support. among white working class voters since. Harris became the nominee and a group. like the teamsters is suddenly up for. grabs H this is something of a sharp. turn but I think we do need to talk. about the Fallout from what happened 5. days ago it feels like it's a lot longer. than that and that is this second plot. to try to kill Donald Trump and so I. want to ask you all to help us think. through what this second attempt means. for Trump and what it means for the.

electorate because we're really dealing. with something truly unprecedented I. mean I remember seeing the first. statement that KL Harris put out which. is that violence has no place in this. country and you know it just made me. think that I'm not sure that's true. anymore that there is increasingly a. place where violence is in our country. and in our politics and when you go back. and think through all the different. people who are political leaders who've. been subject jeed to violence recently.

it's a long list and of course we had. the violence on January 6th and so you. know these are horrific things and. they're a reminder that this country. isn't that far from violence anymore. Maggie what's your sense of how Trump. personally is handling the fact that two. people seem to want to try to kill him. in the past two months how is that. affecting him based on your reporting is. it affecting him it's an interesting. question Michael and we got a bit of an. answer at the rally on Long Island on.

Wednesday night so after the shooting in. Butler Pennsylvania Trump was clearly in. shock and lots of people around him. described him that way and I think he. probably still is to some extent after. what happened on Sunday in West Palm. Beach people who talked to him that. afternoon and saw him that afternoon. said it was as if nothing had happened. that he just basically resumed life you. know it just became more Grist for his. storytelling but he wasn't stuck on it. the same way and he wasn't processing it. the same way and yet at his rally in the.

middle of an answer about I don't even. remember what I think it was tax policy. or Economic. Policy you can see on the live stream if. listeners were to watch it his eyes. flicker to his right and he sees someone. moving and he sort of startles and he. says to the crowd that he thought. essentially I'm paraphrasing but he. thought somebody was was coming up. meaning coming up on stage and he said I. thought that I was going to have to get. ready to fight and then jokingly says.

that he's got a bit of a Yip problem. just translate that he means anxiety Yip. anxiety and he's how could you not be. constantly looking over your shoulder. 100% as any normal person would do but. when have we ever heard Donald Trump say. something like that right vulnerability. expression is not his Natural State it's. not his Natural State at all and so to. hear him vocalize that and to see it in. real time was pretty striking now there. was a moment in the 2016 campaign where. someone rushed the stage when he was you.

remember that at an event he he sort of. ducked that was his impulse that was the. only time I've ever seen anything close. this was really somebody who is on high. alert right now and so even if he is not. saying yes I'm worried yes this is scary. because he will never say something like. that he clearly is and is clearly. experiencing very understandably Nate. when we think about these back toac. plots how do you try to assess the way. voters think about it I don't think we.

have asked people in polls about this. but just knowing what you know about how. the electorate processes things what are. you thinking we haven't asked a single. question about it to your point and what. would we ask really if you think about. it but if you step back for a second. Take the Long View of Donald Trump's. political career Donald Trump today is. more popular than he has ever been. before back in 2016 voters disliked him. by nearly a 2 to1 margin this year it's. much closer to 50-50 because almost all.

of the people who support him today have. gotten behind him and I wouldn't rule. out a role for these assassination. attempts in that process consider this. in the nine National polls that we took. this cycle before his assassination. attempt between 21 and 24% of Voters. said they had a very favorable view of. him since the assassination attempt the. numbers are. 312730 so there has been a big step up. in the proportion of Voters. who say they have a very favorable view.

of him those reluctant Trump supporters. over the years a lot more of them are. less reluctant and then there's an. overall increase in favorability as well. where now he's consistently in the upper. 40s something we had never seen in the. course of his time as a major figure in. National political life I mean Nate. you've touched just on something that I. think is really interesting about what. my expectations were for how this. election was going to go not just. because it was originally going to be. Trump and Biden but it was going to be. too deeply popular people that the. American people did not want to send to.

the White House and that's just not what. the polling is showing anymore it shows. with all the attack ads running against. KLA Harris that she is more popular than. she's been before and Donald Trump is. more popular than he's been before you. have two people in the upper 40s. sometimes tipping at 50% that's really. popular right now in this country like. we've had people in the 30s in the' 40s. so we actually have a shifting Dynamic. of what voters are thinking about these. choices they don't dislike these choices.

nearly as much as we expected a few. months ago that's very true and 2024 was. beginning to look like a replay of 2016. where there were these two deeply. disliked candidates and it was going to. be whoever was less disliked ended up. winning that's still usually how. elections work but if there is an. election that could scramble that it. could be this. one well. guys that's it wow a historic first of a. round table in America it's that was fun.

thank you Michael thanks for having us. you know when they set up the exhibit in. the museum of media history I I'm going. to be really proud to be in that. photograph thank you for having us this. was fun thank you Nate Maggie Shane. appreciate it thank you thanks Michael. let's do it again. [Music]. we'll be right.

back here's what else you need to. another day on Thursday the leader of. Hezbollah accused Israel of breaking. quote all conventions and laws by. blowing up thousands of handheld devices. belonging to Hezbollah Fighters over the. past two days and vowed to seek. revenge as he spoke Israeli fighter jets.

flew overhead producing large Sonic. booms and shooting off flares in an. apparent show of Israeli Force so far. the attacks have killed 37 people most. of them in the second wave of explosions. targeting. walkie-talkies to prevent further deaths. the Lebanese Army is now carrying out. controlled explosions of electronic. devices across the country. [Music].

today's episode was produced by Diana. win and Nina Feldman it was edited by. Rachel quer with help from Paige cowt. contains original music by Pat mccusker. Alicia beup and Dan Powell and was. engineered by Chris Wood our theme music. is by Jim brunberg and Ben lfer of. wonderly remember you can catch a new. episode of the interview right here.

tomorrow David maresi talks with the. Irish writer Sally Rooney who's written. a new novel called. intermo one of the things that I find. difficult to accept is like that I only. get one life that's the it I'm just me. and like I can never be anyone else and. in a way being a novelist allows me to. get around that problem. [Music].

that's it for the daily I'm Michael. babro see you on Monday. [Music].