Nikki Haley’s Moment

from New York Times I'm Michael borro. this is the. [Music]. daily. today in the Republican presidential. primary Nikki Haley is having a moment. the question is what does it mean and. where can it. go I spoke with my colleagues Jasmine. AOA and Nate con.

[Music]. it's Thursday December. [Music]. 7 thank you so much it's great to be. here in Johnson County and great to be. here in Iowa City and you know when. Jasmine you have been covering the Nikki. Haley campaign over the past many months. every speech every event and I wonder if.

you can help us understand what her. candidacy was like when you first. arrived on this beach so I first started. trailing her in the summer so I see some. new faces and we appreciate that so. we're going to start off by telling you. a little bit about me and then we'll and. her crowds were modest you know I. wouldn't say there were Empty Chairs. everywhere but they were definitely. small I'd look around in the Press pin. and there weren't that many reporters. there yet so what I will tell you is if.

you've liked what I had to say today go. tell 10 people and the attitude from. voters was excitement to see a. conservative woman on this National. stage plenty of people knew her as. governor of South Carolina or even more. as United Nations Ambassador under. Donald Trump Hi how are you good to see. you hi nice to meet you nice to see you. how are you we're so glad you're here. thanks for taking the time there didn't. really seem to be a clear case for why. she was. running.

the attitude in the crowd was still very. much like why is she doing. this you know I remember being in the. audience and a voter very early on. asking is this going to be a repeat of. 2016 where the field is just going to be. fractured and it's going to give Trump a. chance to rise and don't you think. people should drop out and the. implication in the question was don't. you think you should drop. out what you're describing of what this. voter is really saying is that Nikki.

Haley at this point is kind of being. written off right she was single digits. in the polls she was low on fundraising. and that was especially putting her at a. disadvantage in a place like Iowa where. it takes a lot of time and resources to. really cover ground in the. state and when did you start to notice. all of that beginning to change tonight. the race for the White House takes. flight welcome to the first I think the.

first inflection point for her campaign. really was the first debate this is. exactly why Margaret Thatcher said if. you want something said ask a man if you. want something done ask a woman that's. when she really stood out from the pack. you have Ronda sis you've got Tim Scott. you've got Mike Pence they all voted to. raise the debt and at the next debate. she did even better I honestly every. time I hear you I feel a little bit. Dumber for what you say she projected. strength and confidence.

and. experience you're watching America less. safe you have no foreign policy. experience and it shows you know. what and slowly and steadily I started. seeing more people at her. events the makeup of the crowds was. different she was reaching more. Independents moderates interesting hi my. name is Jasmine I'm a reporter of the. New York Times and I was just in New. Hampshire last week and I talked to. voters are you seriously considering.

Nikki Haley yes I am yeah what about her. and when when did you start considering. her when did you come into well we. watched the debates and everything and. and what I was hearing from people was. that they really like what she had to. say at the debates how many debates have. there been two or three of three of them. right yeah well we watched all three she. just she shines she has great presence. I've been impressed with how she handles. herself and I think for the most part. she tells the truth you know she talks.

about the deficit she's so pragmatic as. far as uh abortion goes and they were. really attracted to the way she talks. about issues especially abortion I just. think she sees the big picture and a lot. of people in politics want to be either. far left or far right and you can't I. don't think you can be that you's got to. be somewhere in the middle and I think. she's more in the middle I obviously. wouldn't vote for Trump so it's down to.

a few people that sound a little bit. more. [Music]. reasonable do you think that she can. beat the former president in the primary. I don't know but I'm wishing her the. best of. luck and how does this growing energy. end up being reflected in those polls. which you said had been in just the. single digits back in the summer so. she's really Ed in the early States you.

know after being less than 10% in these. early states she is now at 20% or nearly. 20% in New Hampshire and South Carolina. where she is in solidly second place and. in Iowa she's climbing she's reached. Rhonda santis she's tied in some polls. about 16% in the last poll in October. and that steady climb in the polls the. breakout performances and then the fact. that you had former vice president Mike. Pence and senator Tim Scott who was a.

fellow South Carolinian dropped their. bids this fall all of these things have. kind of led up to her seeing not only a. rise in enthusiasm on the trail but this. rise in donations and she's really. caught the attention of more affluent. donors more you know Wall Street. Executives have really warmed up to her. and on top of all of that she has. attracted the attention of one of the. most influential Republican donors. billionaire David kooch who Network.

Americans for Prosperity action just. last week endorsed her and this is one. of the largest Grassroots organizations. out there and they basically came out. backing her saying that she was the most. electable candidate and not only that. saying that she's a tested leader with. the right judgment and the policy. background to Really Turn the page on. the divisive politics of the. moment and that endorsement means that. all that organization's money all of its. political muscle is suddenly behind. behind Nikki Haley and it really seems.

to cap this pretty remarkable. transformation from a candidate who. can't really fill a room isn't covered. by a lot of national reporters and is in. the single digits to what Nikki Haley is. now at the close of 2023 which is a. candidate who looks like pretty much the. number two in this race across many of. these early voting States right I mean. within a week of that endorsement the. organization had already poured 3.5. million dollars into hiring door.

knockers and placing digital ads so that. really is going to change the game for. her on the mobilization front because. this is a candidate who now has hundreds. of Volunteers in each of these early. States and so it's been quite a few. months for her and it's been pretty. remarkable to watch her climb from such. a low position in the race to this. strong Challenger representative of. people who want something other than. Trump.

so Nate as Jasmine just explained Nikki. Haley's success over the past few months. is both undeniable and mathematically. quite impressive and now we want to turn. to you to put it into context so help us. understand what Haley's surge means and. doesn't mean in a race that is so. thoroughly dominated by Donald Trump I. think that what Nikki Haley is doing is. she has positioned herself as the best.

candidate for voters who do not want. Donald Trump to be the Republican. nominee for president and Donald Trump. is the clear front runner in this race a. majority of Republicans want him to be. the nominee but many do not and what. Nikki Haley is doing is something that's. actually really common in presidential. primaries and if I could use a fancy. term for it that term would be to call. her a factional candidate that's a. candidate that appeals squarely to the.

wants and needs of a faction of a. political party that is. dissatisfied with the front runner of. their own party and if you think about. it even the strongest Front Runners of. George W Bush in 2000 Ronald Reagan a. Hillary Clinton don't perfectly appeal. to everybody and as a result There is. almost always an opening for the. candidate that appeals most directly to. that disaffected faction of party and in. this election that's Nikki Haley okay.

well remind us of some of the historical. factional candidates CU I think that. might be Illuminating Bernie Sanders. appealing to the Democratic Socialist. left against a establishment moderate. like Hillary Clinton Rick santor. appealing to the religious right against. a establishment Mormon from the. Northeast like Mitt Romney John Kasich. in 2016 The Establishment moderate in. that election against Donald Trump and. Ted Cruz Howard Dean Ron Paul Jesse.

Jackson I mean we could do this for. almost every election that there is a. candidate who speaks to the needs of a. part of the party that isn't Satisfied. by the front runner and in some cases is. outright oppos to the front runner right. a way to think about factional. candidates as a result might be to see. them as repositories for voters. disillusion with their party's front. runner that's half of it but it's worth. remembering that they usually have. organic authentic appeal to these same.

voters too you know Jesse Jackson is not. just a candidate who is there for black. voters who don't like Michael Dukas he. had a real connection with left linging. voters and African-Americans in the 1984. Democratic primary Rick santor had real. appeal to evangelicals he's not some. Faker Bernie Sanders is real appeal to. democratic socialists he's a True. Believer and they usually have both of. those traits okay so how has Nikki Haley. be come the factional candidate success.

story in this Republican primary in such. a crowded field where we anticipated. that so many other Republicans might. fill that role and where she herself is. a somewhat complicated figure right. she's a former high-ranking member of. the Trump Administration I think you're. right that she's a complicated figure. but I think that if you step back and. look at her whole career that she really. does embody a more traditional kind of.

conservatism that's really at odds with. the trumpist brand of Republican. politics that we've seen over the last. few years this is someone who when she. ran and was elected as governor of South. Carolina in 2010 she did support many. conservative policies but she also ran. as the child of indian-american. immigrants and her defining moment as. governor was ultimately deciding to. support Bringing Down the Confederate. flag from the state capital in South. Carolina after there was a mass shooting. at a black church there mhm and it's.

worth remembering that she vigorously. endorsed Marco Rubio in the Republican. primary in 2016 and that even once she. joined the Trump Administration as un. Ambassador she was not exactly paring. the Maga talking points about foreign. policy and so if you think about the. things that anti-trump Republicans are. looking for in terms of temperament in. terms of views on the issues in. particularly on the issues that Define. Donald Trump like his views on. immigration his populist economics and. his foreign policy Nikki Haley is.

exactly the kind of candidate they would. be looking for right you're saying she's. been able to carve out a political. identity separate from Donald Trump even. though she served in his administration. I want to zero in on an example of that. how she has managed to seize on issues. in a way that distinguish her from Trump. in this current Republican primary. campaign I think the easiest example is. the way that she has talked about. foreign policy in these debates first of. all the American president needs to have.

moral Clarity they need to know the. difference between right and wrong they. need to know and in particular in these. high-profile clashes with v ramaswami. and the problem that Vic doesn't. understand is he wants to hand Ukraine. to Russia he wants to let China eat. Taiwan who has been acting as sort of. the Maga candidate on stage without. Donald Trump there you don't do that to. friends what you do instead is you have. the backs of your friends ukra blasted. ramaswami for being naive and not seeing.

the connections between Russia and China. and Iran for his willingness to. potentially reduce Aid to is a win for. Russia is a win for China we have to. know that Ukraine is the first line of. defense for us and she has very. vigorously defended all of the tenants. of a neoconservative reaganite foreign. policy look at what Putin did today he. killed prosan this guy is a murderer and. you are choosing a murderer over a pro. American.

country she's made this a defining issue. for her in the campaign and this is an. issue that a lot of people who dislike. Trump really really care about I just. want to define a word that you have been. using a little bit here which is. neoconservative and correct me if I'm. wrong what you mean here is a foreign. policy approach that hearkens back to an. older pre-trump Republican tradition of. being interventionist seeing America's. role as robust elbows out who needs us. where they need us it's the opposite of.

Trump's more isolationist America First. approach to foreign policy that's what. you mean exactly Michael and the key is. that she is holding the flag that these. neoconservative Republicans who have a. long tradition in the Republican Party. want to see pick up and held on a debate. stage what about domestic issues how has. she distinguished herself from Trump and. fueled herself as the factional. candidate so I think perhaps. surprisingly abortion is the best answer. to that question thank you Martha I am.

unapologetically pro-life not because. the Republican Party tells me to be. she's pro-life and she passed abortion. restrictions as governor of South. Carolina but she's been very skeptical. about a federal abortion ban that's. great when it comes to a federal ban. let's be honest with the American people. and say it will take 60 Senate votes it. will take a majority of the house so in. order to do that let's find consensus. she's argued instead. looking for consensus on the national.

stage on the issue she's taking a. respectful and conciliatory tone toward. voters who are pro choice and can't we. all agree that we are not going to put a. woman in jail or give her the death. penalty if she gets an abortion let's. treat this like the like a respectful. issue that it is and humanize the. situation and stop demonizing the. situation and I think that contrasts. with the rest of the Republican field in. a lot of important ways that appeal to. voters who don't support Donald Trump. mhm a lot of people who are skeptical of.

trump are relatively moderate including. on abortion and there are a lot of. pro-choice Republicans out there but. it's not just about the issues it's also. about the tone this kind of. establishment friendly compromising. moderate and conciliatory candidate is. the sort of thing that a lot of Voters. want and are looking for and they may. not be a majority of Republicans but if. you're the sort of person who doesn't. like Donald Trump because of his conduct. this is exactly the breath of fresh air. that you're looking for from a.

Republican presidential. candidate but the conundrum for Nikki. Haley and really every effective. factional candidate is that the same. things that make her appealing to. Independent moderate voters make her a. really imperfect fit for the rest of a. very conservative Republican party and. make it very challenging for her to. actually beat Donald. Trump we'll be right back. [Music].

so Nate walk us through why Nikki. Haley's success at being a factional. candidate so far means that it's going. to be so hard for her to seriously. challenge Trump because I have to say. your description of what she has been up. to so far seems like a plan to try to. mop up every Republican voter who. dislikes Trump of which there are very. many within the Republican party there.

are a lot of them but there aren't. nearly enough of them to power a winning. Republican presidential campaign Michael. I mean if we just step back and look at. the math here for a second there are. three big blocks of Republican voters. one group let's call it 40% of the. Republican electorate is the Trump magga. base they've supported him at every. point they support him today then. there's another 20% or so of Republicans. that doesn't like Trump disagrees with. on the issues strongly or disagrees with.

his personal character and conduct. strongly a lot of these people will. consider voting for Joe Biden in the. general election and Nikki Haley has a. very good pitch for that. 20% then there's another 40% of. Republican voters who like Trump but are. open to voting for someone else some of. them like him a lot on the issues and. don't like his personality as much some. of them may like his personality but. disagree with them on a few issues and. you know it's tempting to look that 40%. and say that those are voters that Nikki.

Haley can win over but they're much more. conservative than the kind of. independent moderate Biden curious. Republicans or Independence that Nikki. Haley is often winning right now and the. more that Nikki Haley does to secure her. base of support among the people who. don't like Donald Trump very much the. more she could repel the persuadable. voters who do like Donald Trump and who. support him on all kinds of issues H. you're saying as Nikki Haley becomes no. known for becoming a trump alternative.

and that message gets out more and more. and she finds more and more ways to. reinforce it she's going to be. contrasting herself more sharply with. Trump and therefore crystallizing for. many Republican primary voters why they. like Trump and why they don't like her. in other words the more she will push. away that 40% who are little wishy-washy. on Trump and clarify for them why they. might actually really like it yeah many. of these 40% think the Republican Party.

should oppose immigration reform many of. them oppose Aid to Ukraine you know so. if Niki Haley runs a campaign that's. pro-immigration or pro- Aid to Ukraine. and it's relatively moderate many of. those voters who are open to voting. against Trump but like him are going to. decide they'd rather have Donald Trump. than Nikki. Haley okay I want you to project this. math and this understanding that you. have been explaining forward through the. next couple of months in the primaries.

which will start in early January and. perhaps you can do that by calling back. to a previous factional candidate who. looked a lot like Nikki Haley I have. someone in mind um and that is it is. because I owe America more than she has. ever owed me that I am a candidate for. president of the United. States John McCain in. 2000. who was the factional candidate Visa.

George W bush exactly and George W bush. is really the only candidate in the. history of modern political polling. whose position in the Republican primary. looks a lot like Donald Trump's position. today it's interesting to see the Bush. campaign at this point he has the luxury. because he has such a lead in the polls. that he can spend his time looking. toward the general election and reaching. both Trump and Bush were pulling over. 60% Nationwide they had a lot of broad.

appeal in the Republican Party Bush. wasn't running for a third Republican. nomination but it would be the third. Bush Republican nomination it expresses. a certain amount of confidence on Bush's. part that he is known by the family he. keeps for one thing the and John McCain. at this time started out in the teens in. New Hampshire he wasn't considered one. of the strongest threats to George W. bush Nationwide either Governor George W. bush the governor of Texas and Senator. John McCain the Republican senator from.

Texas Arizona from Arizona I moved over. one state over I don't think I'm allowed. in. Texas but like Nikki Haley John McCain. could squarely appeal to the kinds of. Voters who were dissatisfied with George. W bush and interestingly they look a lot. like the voters who are dissatisfied. with Donald Trump unless we get. independence reconstitute the old Reagan. demat who didn't like George W Bush in.

2000 relatively secular Northern. moderate college educated Republicans. who just didn't love a southern. conservative Evangelical Texan like. George W bush doesn't mean they hated. George W bush but he was never going to. be a perfect fit for an independent. voter in New Hampshire right but I'll. tell you what the Republican party has. lost its. way and so what ended up happening well. I mean the most important thing that. happened is that John McCain. just kept gaining and gaining in New.

Hampshire thank you very much I think we. finally have a poll without a margin of. error and McCain didn't just win New. Hampshire he won it big and we have sent. a powerful message to Washington that. change is. coming and it propelled him to a new. level Nationwide he cleared the field of. serious competition the other candidates. got out and John McCain ultimately won. seven states in the election even though.

a few months earlier he had been losing. 65 to 10 in the polls Nationwide right. he caught fire he caught fire he won a. bunch of. States. but he didn't come especially close to. any the nomination and in the end John. McCain ran into the same problem that. every factional candidate does which is. that a appeal that is targeted at a. faction of a political party and. succeeds at consolidating it will often. struggle to win over the majority of the. party and he was unable to break that.

wall so if we extrapolate from that. example Nikki Haley if she replicates. John McCain's success which she is by no. means assured to do but if she does she. might win New Hampshire she might quite. logically win her home state of South. Carolina this is her best case yeah she. could go on and win seven states and it. would probably create a real impression. of success and viability as a challenger. to Trump I'm saying this cuz I'm a. journalist and we can often lose our. bearings but you're saying based on the.

math of being a factual candidate based. on the model of John mcen it's very. likely to then stall out right I mean. remember what's going on here Michael. this is not a party of moderate. establishment types anymore it's a very. conservative and populist party and. Nikki Haley is not a very conservative. populist that fact is exactly what lets. her win 20% and it's the same fact that. means she will have a very hard time to. be generous winning 50% is there any. scenario where Haley could somehow shock.

everyone and do more than win seven. states but keep going and truly become. somehow competitive with Trump or is. what you're saying and maybe I'm just. too dense mathematically Michael that's. just not possible so just shut that down. well let let me just start with a. historic answer which is that these. factional candidates almost always lose. and the only time when these factional. candidates win like they almost show. that they weren't factional candidates. right so if Nikki Haley were to win the. nomination with the campaign that she's.

run to this point it would be tantamount. to demonstrating that she's not a mere. faction that the things that she. believes and that she represents are. actually much more broadly appealing in. the Republican party than I'm giving it. credit for today it would be an. indication that much of what I've told. you is wrong not that she somehow. overcame it and if that happens then you. know we can have this conversation I've. been wrong before inferences based on. polling have been wrong before of course. but historically speaking for a. candidate like Nikki Haley to win it. would be a sign that we're just wrong.

about the breadth of her appeal and of. her faction today that said in this. particular election there is this big. asterisk about Donald Trump's legal. challenges I think that we do have to. continue to offer that caveat as the. campaign gets underway those challenges. will become more real as he actually. gets into a criminal trial I think we. have to at least allow the possibility. however small that this will change the. race even though it has not to this. point right but other than that you know. there's not really much of a reason to. think that you know a moderate. establishment type figure in today's.

Republican party is well positioned to. win the Republican primary electorate. it's just not what the Republican party. is and so in the end the story of Nikki. Haley's success the story of this. episode is that it's yet another way of. understanding Trump's historic anomalous. and near total dominance of the. Republican party because the math of. Haley's success at attracting the. primary voters who dislike Trump still. ends with her very likely losing to him.

and losing really soundly over the next. couple of months even right now Nikki. Haley is losing to Trump by like 50. points in the polls. Michael what she is doing to this point. is impressive given where she started. but it leaves her very very very far. from seriously challenging Donald. [Music]. Trump well Nate as as always thank you. very much thank you Michael great to be.

with. you Nikki is corrupt this is a woman who. will send your kids to die so she can. buy a bigger house this is the on. Wednesday night the fourth Republican. presidential debate seemed to confirm. Nikki Haley's place as the leading. alternative to Donald Trump throughout. the night rival candidates who are now. trailing her in the polls including. Ronda STIs and Viv ramaswami repeatedly.

attacked her a dynamic that Haley. appeared to relish I love all the. attention fellas thank you for. that we'll be right. [Laughter]. [Music]. back here's what else you need to know. day Israel which is under growing. pressure to demonstrate that it's. operating ations in Gaza are working. said it has killed at least five key.

Hamas military leaders and roughly half. of hamas's Battalion commanders among. the leaders who have been killed. according to Israel were the head of. hamas's aerial division in response. Hamas confirmed that several of its key. leaders have been. killed and on Wednesday former house. Speaker Kevin McCarthy who was ousted by. fellow Republicans in October said he. would resign from Congress at the end of.

the year a full year before his term is. up that decision could further imperil. Republicans already slim majority in the. house which is currently just three. seats following the expulsion of. Republican George Santos of New. York today's episode was produced by Rob. zipco Mary Wilson and Shannon Lynn with. help from Diana win it was edited by.

Rachel quer contains original music by. Mary lazano Rowan nisto and Dan Powell. and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley our. theme music is by Jim brunberg and Ben. lansburg of. wonderly special thanks to Maddie. [Music]. masella. [Music].

that's it for the daily I'm Michael Bora. see. more.