Midterm Surprise: Democrats Are Surging in Red America

From the New York Times, I'm Michael. Babaro. This is the daily. A new set of [music] polls from the. Times finds that Democratic candidates. are doing remarkably well in [music] the. red states that they need to win to flip. control of the US Senate [music] in next. month's midterm elections. But they're. doing less well in the blue states that. in [music] theory should be far easier. for them to win. Today, my colleague, chief political analyst Nate Conn offers.

his theory [music]. of what's behind the numbers. It's. Monday, October 5th. Nate, welcome back. >> Michael, thank you for having me. >> And back so soon. >> It's that time of year. You'll forget. about me soon. >> We could never forget about you. >> So kind. You can rest assured I will not. forget about you. [laughter]. Okay, Nate, in your last appearance on. the show, you explained that to flip.

control of the United States Senate, which is a genuine possibility in these. midterms for Democrats, that they would. have to win seats in states, to use your. words in that last conversation, that. Democrats have no business winning red. states. Or put differently, Republicans. could keep control of the Senate by. winning the kinds of seats that they. always win in the Trump era. That was.

basically your analysis. That's right. To win the Senate, the Democrats must, even if everything else goes right, win. at least two states that Trump won by at. least 11 points in the last presidential. election. states that traditionally the. Democrats have no business winning in a. federal election. >> Right. So that makes it a real uphill. battle for Democrats. But you have just. gone into each one of these Republican. states where these Senate races are. happening and you have pulled each one.

of these races and you have found that. what was once seen as impossible might. not be so impossible. So talk about. which states you pulled and what you. found. Yeah, we pulled the five red. states where the Democrats seem to have. their best chance of winning. Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas. All. five of those states voted for Trump by. at least 11 points in 2024. And we found.

the Democrats were really highly. competitive in all five of them. We. found them with meaningful leads in. three of the states, Texas, Alaska, and. Ohio. We found the race tied in Kansas. and we had the Republicans with a. nominal one-point edge in Iowa. >> Nate, this feels quite meaningful that. Democrats have real leads in three. solidly Republican red states and are. basically tied in the other two. >> It's extraordinary. I mean, to take a. historic perspective on this, for the.

Democrats to even win one of these. states would really be exceptional. It. has been 16 years since the party has. managed to win even one state that leans. so much toward the other side. in a. regularly scheduled Senate election. So. to contemplate that the Democrats have a. serious chance to not just win two, but. perhaps even more, this is something. that we just haven't seen in this era of. polarized politics, right? And this would seem to tell us. that Republicans unpopularity in this. moment and in this midterm election is.

basically turning red states into. battleground states, into swing states. almost. >> Yeah, I think that's right. This is an. exceptional set of circumstances with a. really unpopular Republican president. In some cases, weak Republican. candidates and in all five cases strong. Democratic candidates and that appears. to be enough to give Democrats a real. chance to do something that again you. just don't expect them to be able to. pull off in a typical election. So. that's the formula here that helps to.

explain this. An unpopular president and. strong, it sounds like Democratic. candidates. Let's just focus for a. moment on the first of those. We've. talked about President Trump's. unpopularity in our last episode with. you, and I assume the Republicans. challenges in these red states are. mostly tied to that to the fact that the. president is so unpopular. But what. exactly did you find? Look, it's hard to. be surprised when we see bad numbers for. the president at this point. It's been.

the story all cycle, but these numbers. are really shockingly bad, I think, for. the president. his approval rating. across these five states is just 40%. >> And to step back for a second, these are. states where Trump won 56% of the vote. in the last election. So it it just. suggests that a huge chunk of the. typical Republican coalition in these. states is outright dissatisfied with the. president's handling of almost every. issue that we asked about in the poll. such as. >> such as the economy, the war,

affordability, gas prices in most of. these states, immigration as well. There's nothing good here for the. president. And I should also point out. that the president's approval rating has. dropped in these states five points. since we pulled them last in June. So, he is falling as we enter the heart. of the campaign season to a real danger. zone that we didn't see earlier in the. year and that I don't think we've seen. for an incumbent president in such solid. states probably since George W. Bush in. 2008 or 2006.

>> Okay. Well, let's move on to the second. part of what seems to be behind the. strength of Democrats in these. traditionally red states when it comes. to Senate races. And that's what you. said are strong candidates on the. Democratic side, which I presume means. weaker candidates on the Republican. side. Yeah. I mean, as as bad as the. president's approval ratings are, I'm. not sure it would be enough for. Democrats to win states this Republican. If it weren't for the fact that they. also seem to have really found the right.

five candidates in these states, just. for a simple overview, in all five of. these states, more voters say they have. a favorable view of the Democratic. candidate than an unfavorable view. And. conversely, more voters say they have an unfavorable. view of the Republican candidate than a. favorable one. Even though again, these. are red states. More voters say they're. Republicans than Democrats. And yet, they like the Democrat more. >> That's fascinating. >> And the advantage that the Democratic. candidates possess is it's very broad. I. mean, just take two questions. Who has. the better moral character? The Democrat.

leads in all five states. So, that's a. judgment about their like personal. integrity. But even more surprising. perhaps, which candidate is too far to. the left versus too far to the right, even though in all of these states, voters say the Democratic party is too. far to the left. In all five of these. states, voters say the Republican. candidate is too far to the right and. are less likely to say the same of the. Democratic candidates. So, the Democrats. have nominated people who voters find. personally compelling and who they. consider to be ideologically acceptable. despite how conservative these states. are. That's a real feat. Hm. You're.

you're saying that part of the success. of these Democratic candidates in these. five red states is that they're not. associated with the larger Democratic. party brand, which as you just said, the. poll finds most voters think is too far. to the left. So, let's talk about one or. two of these Democratic candidates in. particular. And let's maybe start with. Kansas, which definitionally, at least. in my lifetime, has been very strongly.

identified with Republicans. >> It is the most Republican state of the. bunch in the last presidential election. And it is also the one where the. Democrats have, according to this poll, their most popular candidate in Adam. Hamilton. And Adam Hamilton, I think, just exemplifies how the Democrats have. managed to find someone who is both. acceptable on personal grounds and. ideologically a moderate. He is a pastor. of the largest United Methodist. congregation in the country. And. certainly by being a pastor, you would. presume that he's of good moral.

character. You would also be less likely. to assume that he's an ideological. radical. And for good measure, he has no. electoral track record. This is not. someone who has voted for a bunch of. Democratic bills in the past. There's. nothing that the Republicans can really. tag him with. It's a very challenging. person for them to run against. >> And what about the Republican candidate. in Kansas that Hamilton faces? >> As the Republican candidate, Roger. Marshall is not a very strong candidate. He's he is the incumbent, but he is. someone who has underperformed in the. past. He did not do especially well in.

2020 for a Republican in Kansas. Even. though he won comfortably, he has all. kinds of liabilities even besides just. being a Republican incumbent right now. You know, as our colleague Sarah Cliff. reported last month, when he was a. medical doctor in Kansas, he in pursuit. of medical debt on some of his patients, he had lowincome canons arrested for. minor medical debts. The Democrats have. been airing advertisements about that in. the state. >> And you put all that together and now. looks like it could be a top tier. battleground state that people didn't. have on the map at the beginning of the. cycle. >> Right. Because as you said earlier, the. Kansas Senate race is now a dead heat,

very much a battleground. So talk Nate. about how this question of strong. Democratic candidate, weak Republican. candidate is playing out in the states. where the Democratic lead is even bigger. than in Kansas, for example, I guess in. Texas or Alaska. >> It's clearly the story in all three of. the states where the Democrats have a. comfortable lead. That's Texas where. James Telerico is up six points over. Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska, where.

Democrat Mary Poto is up seven points. over Republican Dan Sullivan and Ohio. where Democrat shared Brown leads. Republican John Hoostead by three. points. In all three of those races, the. Democrats have the candidate quality. advantage. To take maybe the most. opposite case from Kansas, I think maybe. focusing on Texas is an easy one. >> Sure, please. If Adam Hamilton is the. most popular candidate in the poll, the. Republican candidate in Texas, Ken. Paxton is the least popular candidate in. the poll. His political wos are are not. new and may be familiar to many people.

listening right now. He was impeached by. his own party. He's faced federal. investigation. He is in the middle of a. messy divorce. And President Trump, who's endorsed Kent Paxton, he just. makes fun of him ceaselessly. This is. not a compelling candidate. I mentioned. earlier that the Democrats have this. advantage on moral character. Well, that. advantage is 23 points in Texas. So, this is a profoundly flawed Republican. nominee who has clearly put his party in.

grave danger in what has been one of the. nation's most reliably Republican states. over the last several decades. I mean, why in your mind, and given the very. polarized era we live in, aren't. Republican voters able to look past. flawed candidates and just summon what. we have come to understand is a. reflexive, some would even call it. tribal voting instinct [snorts] and get.

behind these Republican party. candidates. The the poll is just finding. that's not happening. I think it's worth. sort of peeling back the layers here. The first layer that's peeled away from. the Republicans are the voters that gave. them a chance for the first time in. 2024. Young voters, Latino voters. These. are not loyal Republicans. And they did. not get what they thought they were. voting for. No wars, low prices. Instead, prices are up. We're entangled. in a foreign war. The immigration stuff. has gone farther than any of these. voters wanted. And there's now an.

enormous reversion back to the. Democrats. And that's a huge problem for. Republicans in Texas in particular, which is one of the most Latino states. in the country and also has a. disproportionately young population. >> And in the poll, James Terico has more. than 60% of the vote among Latino. voters. He's up by nearly 30 points. And. alone, the Latino vote is enough to make. that state into a battleground this. cycle. >> Fascinating. >> But that's just the first layer. These. are states that are reliably Republican. for the Democrats to lead here. The. Democrats are breaking in to a kind of.

voter who they just don't usually win. And I think it's important to remember. that while the Republican party is. really unified in a lot of ways behind. Donald Trump, there is and always has. been a meaningful part of the Republican. party that has serious reservations. about Trump. Because there are. Republicans who disagree with Trump on. tariffs and disagree with him on. immigration and disagree with his. personal conduct and his moral. character. And I think it is worth. remembering that all five of these.

states voted against Donald Trump in the. 2016 Republican primary. These are. states with more of those traditional. Republican voters who liked George W. Bush, who liked Mitt Romney, liked. Ronald Reagan. So there may be a. disproportionate group of these. Republicans who have never been totally. comfortable with Trump all along. But. now that things have gotten this bad, the floor is sort of falling out beneath. Republican candidates here. >> So 10 years after those Republican. voters registered their objection to not.

yet President Trump, they are. reemerging, it seems, quite powerfully. in these states in this midterm and. going so far as to consider voting for a. Democrat. I think that's the easiest. explanation for why maybe these states. are racing to the left farther than. other states. That all along there has. been in these states a traditional group. of Republican voters who has never. really been comfortable with him has.

gone along against the Democrats. But. now with Democrats putting forward the. right folks and with things getting so. bad in Washington, they might just be. about to do something they've never done. before. So, it goes without saying that the. Democrats are overjoyed to be doing this. well in red states. But their strength. in these red states is even more. important because the Democrats are. actually having an unexpectedly. difficult time in several relatively. blue states that the Democrats might. have assumed they could take for granted.

at the beginning of the cycle, let alone. in this political environment. >> H Okay. So, we're going to talk about. that somewhat counterintuitive idea that. Democrats are having a tougher time in. blue states right after the break. We'll be right back. So, Nate, talk about what you found in. the polling of the key Senate races in. the blue or bluer states than the red. states that we just talked about.

>> Yeah. In addition to the five red states. that we just pulled, we also surveyed. three blue to purple states, Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire. And despite. these enormous Democratic breakthroughs. in the red states, the races are still. pretty competitive in these more. Democraticleaning states. H and why is. that? Well, the answer ultimately comes. back to candidate quality. Again, Donald. Trump is extraordinarily unpopular in. all of these states, but the Republicans.

have either nominated really strong. candidates who are relatively moderate. and have wellestablished bases of. support in the state, or the Democrats. have nominated someone who has the. potential at least to alienate some. voters who would otherwise vote for a. Democrat. >> Basically, this is the inversion of the. candidate quality dynamic. >> It is the exact laid out in the. Republican states. And the the most. extreme case is Maine. Maine is of all. the states the most Democratic, Kla. Harris won it by seven points in 2024.

And believe it or not, of all of the. state polls we just did, it is the one. where the Republican is doing best. Susan Collins actually led our poll by. three points. Even though it's the. bluest state of the bunch, at risk of. repeating myself, it's a simple story. While voters in the state strongly. disapprove of President Trump's. performance and want Democrats to. control the Senate, they like Susan. Collins and they don't like the. Democratic candidate Troy Jackson. H. And does this poll help explain why.

Susan Collins seems to be such a strong. Republican candidate? >> Well, I Susan Collins scored well on. basically everything we asked about. They think she's an effective senator. They don't think she's too far to the. right even though this is a blue state. And to be honest, Susan Collins has. demonstrated outside of polling in. election victory after election victory. that this is someone who has a lot of. support in Maine built over decades of. public service there. >> The Democratic Party's hope was that in. this political environment they could.

finally bring her down. And it turns out. that at least in this poll, and it's. worth noting that other polls do show. Troy Jackson ahead, so you know that. there's at least a chance that we're an. outlier on this. But at least in this. poll, despite how unpopular Donald Trump. is, Maine voters are still inclined to. give Susan Collins yet another shot in. Washington. >> I'm curious what Maine residents told us. about why they don't like Troy Jackson. I. >> I've got to be honest, I don't feel like. the poll really did a great job of. explaining why Troy Jackson is this.

unpopular. His rating in the poll is 49%. unfavorable, 41% favorable in a blue. state. That's much worse than any of the. other Democratic candidates. He's not a. perfect candidate. He's not the most. charismatic figure. He also became the. Democratic nominee in an unusual way. when he was selected by a convention to. replace Graham Platner in July. But I. have to say that I think the single. biggest mystery across these eight polls. is why is Troy Jackson this unpopular?

Interesting. Okay, so that's Maine. Is. there anything else notable that you. found about the other two blue purple. states, New Hampshire and Michigan? I. think Michigan is the one worth focusing. on. Unlike Maine, this is not a story of. a strong Republican candidate. It's a. story of a complicated Democratic. candidate who has real strengths and. weaknesses. And the question has been, are these weaknesses bad enough uh. severe enough to cost Democrats a state.

that they should really win easily in. this political environment? The poll. found Abdul Aliad, the Democrat, up five. points over Mike Rogers 49 to 44. >> But when you look under the hood of this. poll, though, I think you see that there. are still some risks here for Democrats. Like he really does have these big. strengths and big weaknesses in this. poll. They all happen to sort out to a. modest Democratic lead, but if the. balance of them was a little different, then maybe he could be in trouble really. quickly.

>> Well, talk about Elsa's strengths and. his weaknesses and just generally remind. us about his candidacy. >> Yeah. So, just to back up about Dr. Elsad, he is a progressive candidate and. not just someone who has progressive. views on the issues, but who is part of. this sort of activist wing of the party. someone who has surrounded himself with. characters like Hassan who by the. way is extremely unpopular in the poll, who's associated himself with the. Democratic Socialists, even though he. doesn't consider himself one, and he won. his party's primary very narrowly on the.

strength of support from young voters in. particular. And the poll definitely. shows that he has real strength among. young voters heading into the general. election. I think it's possible that he. actually has the biggest lead among. young voters in this poll of any time. Sienna poll ever conducted. >> Ever conducted. >> I think it's possible. But it's, you. know, we've done hundreds of them, but. he's up 8211 among 18 to 29 year olds in. the poll. >> That's an electrifying youth of. Michigan. >> He's at least electrifying them to pick. up the phone and take a poll about him. So that's [laughter] that's an.

extraordinary number. I have to say that. I feel like there's a little bit of risk. entailed in being so dependent on a. fickle and difficult to reach voting. block. Like if the truth of it is that. he's actually at 60%. Which would still. be a good number, you know, then he's in. a lot more trouble than the poll found. Uh on the other hand, the poll does show. home with real weaknesses among the kind. of voting groups that Democrats have. been doing really well among this cycle. and even worse than other Democrats. So. just black voters voted against Abdul. Alad in the primary and he's not doing. that well among them in the poll. He's.

only up 76 to 13. That's a pretty good. number. But just for comparison, the. Democratic gubernatorial candidate is up. 92 to1 among black voters. So in the. poll there are a lot of black voters who. say they're going to vote for the. Republican for Senate even though they. plan to vote Democratic for governor and. for Congress as well. >> Wow. >> And similarly, he's doing much worse. among older voters. He's losing among. voters over age 45 whereas the other. Democrats are essentially tied or ahead. So there again, he has this mix of. strength and weaknesses. And I think. that if you're a Democrat, you're still.

a little bit concerned about this race. If the poll has overstated his strengths. a little bit and those weaknesses are. real, then suddenly maybe this is a. closer race than we think. But again, he's up five. And you can take that one. of two ways. On the one hand, five. points is a meaningful lead. On the. other hand, it's a real. underperformance. In fact, the Democrats. lead by 10 points on the generic ballot. in the poll. So, he's cost Democrats. half of the lead they ought to have in. this race. So, I I do think we really. can look at it evenly and fairly from.

both perspectives. Nate, given what the polling you've done. in all these eight states reveals, what. in your mind is the clearest path for. the Senate to flip? And I'm not asking. you to prognosticate, just answer based on what the poll. found. Well, there are a lot of ways to. think about that, but let's use the one. we did at the beginning of the episode. The Democrats need to win at least two. states that Trump won by 11 points to. win, provided everything else goes their.

way. The blue state polls suggest they. can't count on everything going their. way. We found Susan Collins leading in. Maine after all, and she may not win. Maine in the end, but if she did, then. Democrats would need three of those red. states. As I mentioned at the beginning, the poll has the Democrats ahead by. three points or more in three red. states. So, if the polls are exactly. right, the Democrats would win the. Senate by flipping Ohio, Alaska, and. Texas. They would lose Maine, but it.

would still be enough. If they lost. other states, the Democrats would need. to compensate for that by winning in a. state like Kansas or Iowa. And. ultimately, if the Democrats ultimately. won Maine, then they could afford to. lose one of those red states where they. have a comfortable lead in our polling. >> Got it. All to say, the future of the. Senate is really hard to predict, foolhardy to predict. But regardless of. who ends up winning the Senate, I think. what's most striking to me anyway is.

that in the leadup to this election, Democrats quite clearly are making. bigger gains in red states than they are. in blue or swing states. And that is. just very counterintuitive. Even crazier than that, Michael, they're. not just making bigger gains. Democrats. are doing better in Texas than they are. in Michigan and Maine in this poll. And. I think that, you know, we'll see what. the election result is going to be in a. month, obviously. But if these polls. were to all be perfectly right, which.

they won't be, but if they were to be, and we were to step back and try and. explain the election, I think what we. would say is that in this election, candidate quality was a huge deal. And. that at a time when both parties have. been discredited, when the Biden. presidency just failed to bring the. return to normaly that he promised, when. the Trump presidency failed to bring low. prices and an end to foreign wars, when. both parties were unpopular, that voters gravitated toward the.

candidate that they thought they could. trust, whether that was a moderate. Republican with experience in Maine or a. Democratic pastor in Kansas. Mhm. So, one way of looking at these polls is. that they tell us voters are rejecting. both parties right now to a certain. degree. And so, in these states that are. most likely to determine control of the. US Senate, being a candidate that is not.

too closely tied to, tethered to, associated with either is the kind of. candidate most likely to win. We will. see when the results come in whether. that's right. But you know, just. stepping back for a second, it has been. 20 years since voters were it's been. more than 20 years. I think it's been 25. years since voters were satisfied with. the direction of the country. They've voted for both parties. They've.

tried [music] all of this. And at a time. when everyone is frustrated and. dissatisfied with both the status quo. and their usual options have failed, it. doesn't surprise me that we're seeing. the familiar partisan patterns of the. last decade begin to weaken a bit as. voters try and consider [music]. what they can do to shake things up. [music]. >> Well, Nate Michael, as always, thank you. very much. >> Thank you for having me. Always fun.

We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to [music]. know today. The United States rushed. over the weekend to withdraw all 12 of. its B1 Air Force bombers from a base in. southern England [music] after. commanders learned of potential terror. attacks tied to Iran. The pull out came. a week after British police [music].

arrested several men who had been. traveling near the base in white vans. The base is seen as a potential target. [music] because it's been used by. American bombers in the USIsraeli war. against [music] Iran. And the New York Times obtained. documents showing exactly how Cornell. University punished the seven fraternity. members accused of sexually assaulting a. female classmate known in court records.

as Jane Doe. All of the men have denied. any wrongdoing. [music]. The documents show that two of the men. were expelled from the university. Another who had already graduated. [music]. was barred from the campus. Two more. were suspended. The remaining men were. handed lighter punishments that included. writing papers reflecting on their. [music] behavior. Meanwhile, >> this has been one of the most difficult. weeks in our history, and I know many of.

you are angry, saddened, [music] and. struggling. In a video message to the. campus over the weekend, Cornell's. president acknowledged the pain that. [music] the case has caused and promised. that the university's response would be. both thorough and transparent. >> This is a defining [music] moment in. Cornell's history. We must lead the way. We owe it [music] to Jane Doe and to. survivors of assault to get this right.

Today's episode was produced by [music]. Jessica Chung and Lexi Diao with help. from Michelle Banja and Eric Kupkkey. It. was edited by Rachel Quester, contains. music by Brad Fischer [music] and Dan. Powell, and was engineered by Chris. Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. That's it for the daily. I'm Michael. Babaro. See you tomorrow.