Lessons From an Unending Conflict

[Music]. from The New York Times I'm Sabrina T. and this is the daily this morning in. Stan Kurt the capital of nagoro caraba. the government of aaban said it had. mounted a counterterrorist operation but. the ethnic Armenians who live here saw. it as an unprovoked and opportunistic. attack in late September one of the. world's most intractable conflict ended.

causing tens of thousands of Armenians. to flee their homes on the streets of. stepanak panic took over as mortars. pounded its surroundings overwhelmingly. the Armenians of negoro caraba now a. defeated people have decided it's safer. to flee their Homeland than live under. azer bani rule today my colleague Andrew. Higgins on how that conflict started why. it lasted from more than 30 years and.

what its end can tell us about the. nature of seemingly insolvable. disputes it's Wednesday November. [Music]. 1st so Andy I want to start by breaking. the third wall here to say you and I. actually recorded a version of this.

episode and I was looking back at my. calendar just now to see when we. actually did that it was October 6th and. the team had the episode ready to go for. that Monday but then that weekend Hamas. militants crossed into Israel and our. attention shifted to another part of the. world and we did not actually run the. episode yeah exactly and put what we. were talking about in a slightly less. important. place however I think what we were. talking about is very instructive and.

important when it comes to conflict and. the nature of conflict how it begins and. most importantly how it can end right so. we're now returning to this topic. because you know other than the struggle. between Israel and the Palestinian. territories this conflict the one we've. recorded the episode about the one. between aeran and Armenia was considered. the most intractable conflict in the. world that is up until about a month AG. go when suddenly almost out of the blue.

it ended quickly and quite brutally so. let's talk about this conflict Andy how. it became so intractable how it ended. and and what that tells us about the. nature of conflict where does that story. start what the dispute between Armenia. and aeran like that between Israel and. the Palestinians is one over. territory and like Israel Palestine.

diplomats have been talking around and. around this issue how to solve it and. they got absolutely nowhere multiple. meetings multiple Summits all. failed and then last month it was in. quotation marks solved through a. military assault which obviously. has maybe not implications but Echoes. for Israel Palestine I mean can the.

Israel Palestine dispute over territory. be solved by. force okay so let's walk through the. first part of that conflict between. these two countries aeran and Armenia. and start Andy back at the time when the. Soviet Union was still alive take me. through in very simple terms the basics. of it yeah it all starts in the waning. years of of the Soviet Union in the late.

1980s remember the Soviet Union was the. largest land Empire on Earth and it. comprised 15 separate. republics each with its own people but. they were all Soviets and two of these. were Armenians and azanis who lived side. by side not always harmoniously but. Soviet power kept long historic. grievances Under Wraps kept them from. basically attacking each other Armenia.

was by some counts the oldest Christian. civilization surrounded on all sides by. Muslim countries uh to the west by. turkey and to the east by aeran and. South by. Iran and when the Soviet Union starts to. fall apart under Mikel gorbachov all. these mountains and valleys of. difference suddenly start coming to the. surface.

and Mikel gorbachov at this point trying. to hold this vast country together goes. down there and pleads for them both the. Armenians and the AER Banis to remember. they are Soviet Citizens first and. foremost and that they should put their. differences. aside and basically avoid open. conflict.

and does that work no it it fails. completely um these tensions are. bubbling up. steadily and in 1990 they erupt in Baku. the capital of azerbajan where there is. a large population of ethnic. Armenians and suddenly the azerbaijani. Muslim population turn on their. Christian neighbors and in many cases. friends and there's a horrific pogm in.

in Baku in the early years of 1990 when. Armenians are basically hunted through. the streets and in some cases killed by. their. neighbors and this sets the stage for. even more violence there was a small. Enclave of ethnic. Armenians that remained within the newly. formed Republic which became a state a. separate state of aeran and this place. was called nagoro kabak.

this Enclave was very very important to. the Armenians it contained many of their. oldest churches and seen as sort of the. Cradle of Armenian. civilization and in one particularly bad. incident in hoalii a town in nagoro. kabak the. Armenians in retaliation for what's. happened in Baku and elsewhere turned on. the. aeran and this leads to a massacre which. leaves hundreds dead and this is. probably the worst s single Massacre of.

civilians during the whole. conflict and by. 1993 and here were 2 years after the. collapse of the Soviet Union in. 1991 what had begun as a local dispute. between two different peoples has become. a full-scale war between two states the. newly declared states of azerbajan and. [Music]. Armenia.

okay so this war between these two new. countries has its front line in a place. called neor kabach and that place has. lots of Armenians and includes many of. their most cherished religious sites but. it sits within the territory of. aeran what did that war look like in its. first phase Andy at this stage the two. new countries are very unbalanced in. terms of strength aeran is a shambles.

political chaos constant turmoil in Baku. the capital and Armenia is more. organized and has a far more disciplined. effective Army and moves very quickly to. basically destroy the aeran military and. they take not only nagoro kabak this. area of territory which is inhabited by. ethnic. Armenians but a large chunk of territory. between negoro kabak and Armenia proper.

so by 1994 when this war ends with the. ceasefire Armenia has not only nagoro. kabak but a large wide s of azer bani. territory and what was the feeling among. the Armenians at that point Andy at this. point the Armenians are exultant they. are euphoric at their victories over. what an enemy they spies as weak and.

disorganized many people I spoke to. compare it to the feeling Israelis had. after the 1967 war when they conquered. Jerusalem there was this idea that the. Armenians were were the sort of Spartans. of the region that they were all. conquering and there was nothing anyone. could do to stop them and what about the. Aeries. Andie well the mood in aeran which I. visited this time was one of absolute.

despondency the government was falling. apart and in 93 it fell bringing in a. new leader the former KGB chief of the. region who slowly brutally began to put. the house in order and by no means did. the aaries give up on what they had lost. in fact this became a festering wound. and for all leaders of aeran since since. the loss of negoro kabak the only issue.

that would prove that they were. successful was whether or not they got. back negoro kabak so it created this. terrible terrible deep wound that. coursed through aaban for decades so. terrible wound for the aaries it's like. a little piece of glass in their heel as. they walk along what about the outside. world how do people see. this well the outside World looked at. this and realized that this wound had to.

be healed and why did the world care. about the wound well the Americans cared. after the collapse of the Soviet Union. because they needed and wanted to show. that the end of Communism the end of. dictatorship the end of basically a. police state did not mean just a. wasteland of endless conflicts that. there was some hope to be had from the. end of Communist Party rule so they were.

very determined to basically have a. success or at least not a total bloody. failure in this part of the world and. for the Russians it was important. because they considered this their Turf. and they saw themselves as the ultimate. guardians of peace and they wanted to. show that they could bring about some. sort of peace and at the same time both. the Americans and the Russians at this. time unlike today were working very. closely together and in many ways they.

were both on the same page diplomats who. were involved at that time look back. very fondly at those days when they said. they you know had very good relations. with their Russian and American. colleagues and they were sort of working. together to try and solve this problem. not that they got anywhere though so. everybody had a stake in wanting this. festering wound to be. healed what did they do. well everyone also had a.

plan they drew up road maps came up with. fivepoint plans eight-point plans got. the leaders and diplomats of aeran and. Armenia to sit down at various talks. Round Table talks Square table. talks and they all got. nowhere the most famous push in all. these diplomatic efforts came in 2001. with George W bush who would just come. into the White House and he was looking.

for what he thought might be a simple. easy diplomatic Triumph little did he. know no he bit off a lot more than he. could chew and he and Colin Powell. Secretary of State at the time organized. this meeting in Key West Florida after. months of preparation they thought they. might be able to solve the problem and. finally cut this gordian knot.

that had tormented so many of their. predecessors they got the leaders of. aeran and Armenia to go to Key West and. yet again the effort. failed and left such a bitter taste in. George Bush's mouth that he supposedly. told AIDS please never mention Neo kabak. to me ever. [Music]. again so diplomacy was really no match. for these underlying tensions the right.

to the land the language the religion. and the conflict basically bumped along. but in a frozen form but he was still. seething underneath the surface right so. when did that start to. change the conflict itself has not. changed but the world around it has. completely changed after the K West. deaka aeran which in the early part of. this dispute was a shambolic mess is now.

an organized basically police state with. lots and lots of money coming in thanks. to oil and gas which it's developed. largely with the help of Western. companies and it's using this a lot of. this money to buy weapons and this. military which before was just laughed. at by the Armenians is now becoming a. serious fighting. force and at the same time Armenia is.

sort of. stuck its politics are sort of Frozen. and stagnant and it's not a rich country. it's a small country but it has nothing. like oil or gas to sustain a major. military buildup so it's falling behind. aeran militarily so basically they're. Trading Places right aeran is rising. economically and Armenia is largely. stuck in place how does that power shift. change the weather in the war what does. it do due to this Frozen conflict well.

alongside this dramatic economic trading. of. places is a very serious hardening of. regime in Baku the capital of. aeran which is run at this point by the. son of the previous leader who came to. power with little experience few of the. connections of his father and was. basically fairly. insecure but he reaches out. to ethnic nationalism as the way to.

consolidate his position and he starts. stoking fairly vicious hatred of. Armenians generally and of Armenians. living in nagoro kabak in particular. like he's insecure he needs a tool to. prove to the people of aeran that he. knows what he's doing and he's important. and he's powerful that they should. listen to him so he grabs the ethnic. nationalist lever yes exactly ex L. ethnic nationalism in this part of the.

world and many other places is basically. the first Refuge of of a political. scoundrel and the president the new. president started to use increasingly. violent rhetoric either himself or. through his proxies and the medor. outlets he controlled whose message was. basically the only good Armenian is a. dead Armenian and this. culminated in. 2004 when an aani officer who' been sent.

to a NATO training exercise in Hungary. which was also being attended by. Armenian Military Officers and one night. this aerb johani officer went out and. bought an axe this is in the capital of. Hungary. Budapest and he went back to the. dormitory broke into the Armenian. soldiers room and hacked him to death. with this axe God but rather than. spending life in prison he's eventually. extradited back to aeran where the.

authorities have promised Hungary that. he will serve his. sentence but instead as soon as he. arrives back in Baku the aabani capital. he's held as a Conquering. Hero and the president of aaran promotes. him to a higher officer rank gives him a. new apartment and this guy a convicted. murderer becomes a national hero in. aeran because he is killed an.

Armenian so the president is clearly. sending a message to his people but also. to Armenians here right that they will. be dealt with with extreme violence he's. congratulating that so where does that. sentiment that ethnic nationalist tool. he's wielding. lead this sentiment leads to a new war. ultimately. over these years aeran has been buying.

huge amounts of weapons from Israel from. turkey and other. countries and at the end of this process. aeran has a formidable fighting force uh. that Armenia simply cannot match and in. 2020 after the failure of yet another. round of peace talks and. negotiations aaban unleashes this. military machine onto nagoro kabak well.

aaban says its troops have begun. entering the areas surrounding the. disputed territory of nagoro kabak which. and in the space of 44. days they make minc meet of armenia's. far inferior military and take back much. of the territory they lost in. 1994 but they don't take. nagor. because.

Vladimir Putin of Russia intervenes. overseas tonight Armenia and aeran. brokered a peaceful deal that ended. weeks of fighting and bloodshed but for. many a fight and in an effort to assure. both sides that this ceasefire will. actually hold he commits to send a. Russian peacekeeping Force of about. 2,000. soldiers to police the arrangement but. this ceasefire leaves nagoro carab AK a. sort of isolated island surrounded on.

all sides once again by aeran and very. very vulnerable and the Armenians are. terrified and they realize it's only a. matter of time before azanis take back. the last bit of what they see as their. rightful. [Music]. territory we'll be right. back. [Music].

so negoro karabach is surrounded and the. Armenians think it's only a matter of. time before this little spot of land is. overrun what's the beginning of the end. of this. conflict the first very serious clouds.

on the horizon came in December last. year when suddenly so-called youth. activists from aeran start appearing on. the only Road connecting Armenia to the. ethnic. Enclave youth activists like people. carrying signs yeah they were self-. declared Patriots who wanted to recover. what they considered their sacred land. and this was clearly orchestrated by the. government in.

aeran and in. April this year the azani military sets. up a checkpoint on the. road the only way that Armenia can. supply food medicine and weapons to. nagoro. kabak right this is a very important. road because it's effectively the. umbilical cord from Armenia to this. Enclave exactly so Neo kabak. is totally isolated and the population.

is getting hungrier and weaker and. effectively just waiting for the final. blow to fall and at the end of September. the aani military launches yet another. attack and within 24 hours they have. crushed The Armenian defenses on this. territory the Armenian government in. nagoro kabak collapses they have a.

president they have a flag they have a. parliament and it just. dissolves this conflict that been going. on for more than 30 years is over in a. [Music]. night and in the wake of that the. population ethnic Armenian. population of nagoro kabak begins to.

trickle out and it begins slowly at. first but within the following days this. very thin trickle turns into a. [Music]. flood tens of thousands people leaving. each. day The Horizon is Just Trucks tractors. cars people on foot flooding down this. single Road from n kabak into Armenia.

proper so by the end of the lightning. military campaign by aeran in September. 100,000 people have left which is almost. the entire population of nagoro kabak so. it was an. exodus. yo is one my colleague ieno and a local. journalist na abrahamian went to the.

border to document this flight of. Armenians one of the most poignant. stories they came across was a guy who'd. been recording the struggle for this. Enclave for 30 years on his video camera. and in a few minutes he decided he had. to burn all his recordings from the. first war onwards like a 100 cassettes. and he said with tears in his eyes he. set fire to this whole collection and. his history and this territory's history. for the last 30 plus years went up in.

smoke why had he burned them he was. worried that if he had footage of. soldiers fighting which he did he would. be accused of being a spy of being an. Armenian agent and that he would be. prosecuted he said it 15 minutes took. him to pack up everything and that was. the last thing he did before leaving his. house.

God it's like he's. erasing his identity his Essence somehow. yeah and that's what's happening in. nagoro kabak now the Armenian identity. of nagoro kabak is being erased mostly. through the flight of its people fleeing. what they fear will be a round of. Revenge killings by the. azanis there's very little evidence that. that actually happened but in people. people's heads there was this. overpowering fear of the Fate that they.

awaited them if they stuck around so. whether intentional or not it was an. ethnic cleansing more through fear than. actual. violence so what. changed between 2020 and now I mean as. you said Putin intervened in 2020 to. save negoro karabach for the Armenians. to block it from. aeri Invasion.

effectively what's. different the big difference of course. is that in 2020 when Putin invested a. lot of time and effort into brokering a. ceasefire he was not engaged in Ukraine. since February 24 last year he has had. other concerns and it's not only. distracted his attention it's distracted. the attention of the Russian military. which is is providing the peacekeeping. forces on the ground around nagoro.

kabak so whereas when they were first. sent in 2020 they took their duties. relatively seriously by the time the. area attack came this year these. peacekeeping troops the best of them had. been moved onto Ukraine they were left. with the skeletal crew and the skeletal. crew that had no interest in engaging in. another fight on the ground of azaran.

and nagorno karabach so they just stood. aside that is one of the most extoling. elements of this whole Saga that the. Russian military did nothing when the. azerb Janis set up their military. roadblock the AER Janis INF furled a. giant national flag within a few feet of. the Russian soldiers who just watched on. they clearly had orders don't intervene. just let them get on with it so I think. Putin had sort of just checked out. he had far more important things to deal.

with than the survival or basically. extinction of the ethnic Armenian state. in nagoro. kabak and what about the rest of the. world I mean there was a time as we were. talking about when all of the big Powers. were focused on this conflict in. particular the Americans yeah this area. was um the focus of what became in the. journalistic cliche the great game but. by the time this latest conflict of. nagoro kabak The Americans were a much.

diminished Force at least in terms of. their Ambitions I mean the days of the. 1990s when Washington hoped that you. know the former Soviet Union would. become this big Garden of blossoming. democracy and economic prosperities that. was all. [Laughter]. gone and as soon as nagorno kabak fell. but only after afterwards the Biden. Administration rushed out to senior.

Administration officials to. Armenia but largely just to hold their. hands and offer some cold Comforts at. their loss there was no promise of. additional Aid Beyond some humanitarian. shipments there was certainly no move to. sanction aeran for having Used military. force to resolve a dispute that the US. and the Europeans had always was. insisted must be resolved through.

diplomatic. means people have lost. [Music]. interest so in the end what finally. finished this conflict wasn't some kind. of masterful diplomatic. push it was really about the Armenians. coming to terms with the fact that they. couldn't win right that they had lost.

the Russian backing the world kind of. had moved on didn't care about it. anymore so you know Wars keep going when. both sides know that they can win and. that wasn't the case here yeah the. Armenian side recognized reluctantly. grudgingly and with deep. bitterness that they could not win. militarily that the as. military was far superior and throwing.

Armenian troops into this fight would. have been. pointless and would have just left. Armenia even more exhausted more. diminished than it was with the loss of. nagoro kabak right and in the end force. was what ended it yes exactly after. Decades of elaborate diplomatic formula. meetings in expensive hotels from Key. West to Geneva to. Moscow and extraordinary diplomatic.

efforts to solve this thing what entered. it was pure Brute Force the azer Banis. were more powerful than the Armenians. and they. [Music]. won and what does this say about the. role of diplomacy in these seemingly. unsolvable. conflicts well sadly it shows um.

diplomacy is very limited when two sides. have irreconcilable demands in this case. for a piece of territory a piece of land. claimed by two people whose positions. are basically un budging it's ours no. it's ours and this went on for 30. years and now this conflict is over has. been declared over has been forced to be. over by military.

force but clearly the issue is not. solved and the danger here without a. diplomatic solution is that there will. be another eruption on other points of. dispute between these two countries they. also claim other bits of land each side. and they Rumblings at the moment that. aeran could be gearing up to strike into. Armenia sees another patch of.

territory so it's a puzzle right the. diplomacy didn't. work but without the. diplomacy the conflict. continues well exactly that the. underlying disputes tensions hatreds. even between these two. countries have not gone away and they. could well erupt in The Fairly near. future into another armed. confrontation which will put diplomats.

back to the table which will set people. drawing up new. plans and you know you have to hope that. maybe this time they'll be a bit more. [Laughter]. [Music]. successful Andy thank you you're. welcome. we'll be right.

back here's what else you need to know. today Israel hit a densely populated. neighborhood in Northern Gaza on Tuesday. and what it said was an operation to. kill Hamas militants there the Israeli. military said that its quote widescale. air strikes had killed a Hamas commander. who had helped plan the October 7th. attack on isra. they said his Battalion had taken over. civilian buildings in the jabala.

neighborhood a video from the scene. broadcast by the Reuters news agency. showed hundreds of people searching. through the rubble of a collapsed. multi-story. building the times reports that a doctor. at a nearby hospital said that the. facility was receiving hundreds of. injured and that dozens were dead. meanwhile photos satellite images and. videos verified by the New York Times. showed formations of troops and armored. vehicles approaching Gaza City as.

Israel's military moved closer to gaza's. main population. Center today's episode was produced by. Sydney Harper and Lindy Garrison with. help from Alex Stern and Diana win it. was edited by Michael benois contains. original music by Marian Lozano and Pat. mccusker and was engineered by Chris. Wood our theme music is by Jim brunberg. and Ben Lanser of wonderly special.

thanks to Elina Len Ivon narenco and Nae. abrahamian that's it for the daily I'm. Saina Tavern see you. [Music]. tomorrow.