Is One Third of Venezuela’s Population About to Flee?

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily for years Venezuelans have been. living through one of the most severe. economic collapses in modern history one. that has caused about a quarter of the. country to flee but this weekend an. election is offering many a real Hope. for Change.

today my colleague Julie turtz on the. woman who's inspiring that hope and why. after years under a repressive. government Venezuelans think this time. might be. different it's Friday July. [Music]. 26th so Julie we've spent a lot of time. over the past couple of days on the show. talking about the thing that everybody's.

talking about which is the American. presidential election but there's. another important election happening and. that is the one in Venezuela on Sunday. the outcome could have some pretty. serious repercussions both for Latin. America and also for the United States. you are covering it talk to me about. what's at stake here so Venezuela is a. country of roughly 28 million people.

that has. seen somewhere between seven and 8. million people leave in the last 10. years in other words about a quarter of. the country has left many of our. listeners have heard about this Exodus. because in recent years many Venezuelans. are showing up in the United States many. of them are seeking Asylum and what they. are leaving behind is a pretty Stark. economic humanitarian and political.

crisis and I think it's important to. note that the only other places in the. world in which we see in Exodus this. large are places that are experiencing. War if you're talking about Syria. Ukraine the conflict in. Afghanistan Venezuela does not have an. armed conflict but it has a very. dysfunctional economy and it has a very. repressive government and so this is the. backdrop to the election on.

Sunday and many Venezuelans hope that. this election will reverse the amen's. suffering restore democracy and stop. this Exodus that has caused so much. damage inside Venezuela okay before we. get into this election and what it means. to Venezuelans I have to ask why would. the president of Venezuela Nicholas. Maduro who as you say is this famously. authoritarian leader agreed to hold an. election in the first.

place well maluto has long loved holding. elections because a vote makes him look. legitimate the thing is that these. elections have not really been free or. fair in many years but he's holding. elections this year under great. International pressure the United States. in recent years has placed punishing. sanctions on the Venezuelan government.

this has strangled not only the. government but also you know the. Venezuelan people and mudo wants those. sanctions to be lifted and one way to. get sanctions lifted is to do what the. US wants which is to hold a free and. fair election now we know that this. election on Sunday is not going to be. free or fair but it's happening okay so. let's explore that how is it that voters.

in Venezuela this country that at this. point is barely a democracy anymore have. actually come to believe that this time. could be different so the way that I. like to think about it is through the. lens of one woman whose life kind of. embodies the challenges that Venezuelans. across the country are facing right now. person is a young woman named leonella.

colmenares She's 28 years old she lives. in the state of tacha on the western. edge of Venezuela the border with. columia leonella was a kid when. Venezuela still had a pretty decent.

economy this was back during the era of. wugo Chavez oil prices hit historic. highs his socialist project was. redistributing The Wealth throughout. Venezuela and leonella. remembers a comfortable childhood food. on the table going on trips with her. family to the beach.

and having these big Christmas. celebrations with her extended family. which is a very important Venezuelan. tradition sort of a staple of Venezuelan. culture but as she gets older life gets. [Music]. hard around the time when Chavez dies in. 2013 his handpicked successor Nicolas.

maluto takes over and oil prices start. plummeting and this causes the economy. to really go into a free. [Music]. fall for leonella this means that her. family now can't afford the medicine. that her mother needs for her chronic. pains leonella can no longer afford. University tuition she's in and out of. University she remembers this one day.

waiting in line all day long splitting. headache from hunger and at the end of. the day the only thing she's able to buy. is a bag of. [Music]. cornflour and then in 2019 the US.

imposes sanctions on Venezuela which. really strangles an already crippled. economy at the same time maluto facing. all of these economic problems makes. some changes and suddenly goods are. coming into the country there are things. on the. shelves but they're so expensive that. everyday people like leonella cannot. afford. them and leonella is seeing this Mass. Exodus take shape around her hundreds of.

thousands of people are leaving. eventually millions of people are. leaving Venezuela to try and find. Opportunities. abroad and so in. 2022 leonella becomes one of them she. goes to. Colombia but what she finds is that life. far from her country is really hard and. she can barely make ends meet.

and she's missing key moments in her. family's life back home so she goes back. to Venezuela a few months. later today she works three jobs she. makes pastries she works as a university. administrator and she's an informal taxi. driver using her car to drive people. around and yet she still can afford her.

mother's medication and on top of that. she's finding that so many people around. her have. left Christmas dinner table is full of. empty seats. [Music].

[Music]. and she eventually says that at least 10. people in her immediate family her. cousins her aunts her. uncles have been part of this large. Exodus so she's back where she started. and it sounds like the circumstances are. actually even worse but you started this. story Julie as a St of Hope for leonella.

so what changes what. happens what changes are the politics in. the. country there is a new opposition leader. on the rise and her name is Maria Corina. machalo and suddenly leonella and a. broad swath of the country see a reason. for.

hope and even a path toward building a. country that they would want to live in. again we'll be right. [Music]. back so tell me about this opposition. leader Maria Machado so Maria Kina. machalo is a longtime politician in. Venezuela who has taken the country by.

storm she is quite conservative she grew. up in a well-to-do family she studied at. a sort Elite boarding school she went to. the US at one point to study she has. cited Margaret Thatcher the conservative. icon as one of her Idols she's a very. strong believer in the private sector. believes that the private sector should. be the motor of the economy and she has. long argued for the privatization of the.

country's State oil company but the. message that voters are really. resonating with is not necessarily about. her. politics it's about what she's not she's. not maluto she's not muto's. socialism and she has I think very. smartly centered her campaign around the. idea of reuniting families.

[Applause]. H her rallies are incredibly. emotional people crying in her. arms begging her bring back my father.

bring back my brother bring back my. sister there's a sort of um almost. deification frankly in the. country I think that she has played this. up her team has played this up in a very. religious country her name is Maria and. she traverses the streets with people. yelling Maria Maria wow help me help me. and people throwing Rosies at her she.

puts around her neck if you watch her at. campaigns she uh wears not one not two. but 10 rosaries around her neck and many. people say she was brought to us by. Jesus. Christ last year there was this one. moment which I think is reflective of so. many moments that have happened since. amid the crowd there's all of these. people holding up their cell phones that. are connected to people in Colombia. family m in Peru family members in the.

United States so that their brothers. mothers sisters children can see Maria. Kina Macho and there was this one moment. when Maria Kina machalo addresses this. woman who is holding up her phone and. says this is so your daughter can come. back and the daughter is on the other. line wow and so what she is saying is. elect me I will improve the economy and. I will create a situation where the. people that you love.

can come back and be with you in the. country that you love of course it's not. really clear if these are promises that. she can make good. on but the fact that it almost doesn't. matter whether or not she can is a. reflection of just how desperate people. are for. [Applause]. Change and this message really resonates. with leonella.

and with thousands if not millions of. young people just like her all across. [Music]. Venezuela and yella who was previously.

part of a different opposition political. party starts volunteering for Maria. Corina's campaign so how has Maduro. responded to Maria machado's rise so. mudo is really trying to make it. impossible for Maria Corina to become. the president her movement is clearly. very popular it's shown in poll after. poll and eventually the muda government. does this thing where it bans her from.

running wow and for a moment the. opposition is a little lost they've just. lost their. candidate and then the government allows. her coalition to register somebody else. and the Coalition is able to put a. surrogate on the ballot and this. surrogate for Maria Corina is this. little known Diplomat named edmundo. Gonzalez so she's not even the candidate.

so technically no she's not the. candidate but everyone in her movement. knows that she's the real force. behind his candidacy and that she is. really the person that they are voting. for so maduro's government won't let. Maria run but for some reason he lets. this other guy run on her ticket why. does he do that what most observers and. analysts say is that didn't expect so.

much energy behind Maria Kina machalo. and then he didn't expect when he banned. her when his government banned her from. running the opposition to be able to. come around a new candidate the. opposition in in Venezuela is. notoriously fractured and then the. government did not expect Maria Corina. to be able to transfer her popularity to. and Mundo Gonzalez they thought that.

they could control this election and. thought they could control this movement. and it has really become much bigger. than maluto and the people in his Camp. expected so he really underestimated. them and now he has a situation on his. hands he does he really does and so in. response the government of Nicolas Muro. has really escalated tactics to try and. interfere with with the opposition.

campaign the government has arrested. dozens of supporters and finded people. who simply offer services to the. campaign so we're talking about people. who rent them a stage rent them a truck. people who sell them food have been. fined the police have blocked roads to. prevent Maria kurina from making it to. her own. rallies but so far none of this has. dampened support for the opposition. and in fact the opposite is happening.

it's making this campaign of Maria. Corina and edmundo Gonzalez even more. popular so it really looks like things. are on a collision course at this point. we have the election on Sunday there's. this hugely popular opposition now. hurdling toward it and an authoritarian. leader who's extremely unpopular and has. been known to cheat to win I know from. my years of foreign cour respondence you. know a bad loss can actually be pretty.

hard to cover up so it's hard to see how. this plays out peacefully right there is. an enormous amount of tension in. Venezuela right now if the result shows. that the opposition has won will the. government of Nicholas mudo hand over. power he has essentially said if I don't. win there is going to be a blood bath.

and a fratricidal war if the government. of Nicolas Malo says we won is Maria. Corina going to accept that and are. people going to go to the streets and. protest if they feel that their vote has. been stolen if they feel that Nicholas. Malo has invented the numbers or somehow. manipulated the election in his favor. and are you expecting to see violence. Julie we don't know there's a high.

likelihood that whatever result is. announced on July 28th or more likely. July 29th is going to be disputed by one. of the sides the question is how big. will the protest be and will they spin. out of control what will be the response. of the government will there be violence. a lot of people including leonella have. said that they're scared to protest I. mean nearly 300 people have died in the. country in protests in the last 10 years.

leonella specifically has said that. she's not going to go to the streets. she's not going to protest instead she's. going to protest with her feet and she's. going to leave the country she plans to. travel to the United States and she. plans to do that despite all of the. efforts that Biden and other politicians. have made to stop people from doing this. and multiple polls show that as much as. a third of the country is interested in.

leaving if maluto stays in power so the. loss of an opposition leader who is. promised to bring people back might. result in yet another Mass Exodus. exactly and I think that one thing. that's really important to think about. when you think about leonella is that 7. to8 million people have left the country. so many of those people are young people. like leonella she has stayed she has. made a conscious decision she left for.

economic reasons but then she came. back if she leaves it is sort of. Representative of this last slice of the. country that could fight to make. change kind of giving up and saying I. have to leave I can't fight the fight. anymore I have to leave for myself and. my own protection. [Music]. Julie thank you thank.

[Music]. you we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you should know. today on Thursday California governor.

Gavin Newsome ordered officials in his. state to begin dismantling thousands of. homeless encampments which have spread. in recent years as the cost of housing. in California has. skyrocketed it was the nation's most. sweeping response to a recent Supreme. Court ruling that gave governments. greater authority to remove homeless. people from their streets his order. could divide Democratic leaders in the. state some of whom have already begun to. clear encampments While others have. denounced the Supreme Court decision as.

an opening for using inhumane measures. to solve a complex. crisis and what has happened in Gaza. over the past n months is devastating. vice president kamla Harris met with. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin. Netanyahu in her debut on the world. stage since her rapid Ascension as the. presumptive Democratic nominee for. president Harris did not stray from. President Biden on policy but she struck. a stronger tone on the plate of the.

Palestinians we cannot allow ourselves. to become numb to the suffering and I. will not be silent declaring that quote. far too many innocent civilians had died. in. [Music]. Gaza a quick reminder to catch a new. episode of the interview right here. tomorrow this week Lulu Garcia Navaro. talks to trans a secretary Pete.

budajudge about the Democratic Party In. This. Moment today's episode was produced by. Carlos PR Clare tennis Olivia Nat and. muj zadii it was edited by Liz oalen and. Michael benois contains original music. by Dan Powell and Marian Lozano and was. engineered by Chris Wood our theme music. is by Jim brunberg and Ben Lanser of. wonderly special thanks to Francis.

robbles and Anatoli. kayv that's it for the daily I'm Sabrina. Tavern see you on Monday. [Music].