Is College Worth It?

from New York Times I'm Michael Bavaro. this is a daily new. search and polling show that more and. more Americans now doubt a once. unquestioned fact of American life that. going to college is worth it. today Times magazine contributor Paul. tough on why so many high school. students and their parents are souring.

on higher education and what that will. mean for the country's future. foreign. [Applause]. it's Wednesday September 20th. [Music]. Paul we have spent a lot of time over. the past year talking about higher. education on The Daily first because the.

Supreme Court ended affirmative action. in college admissions and second because. of new data showing just how much. College perpetuates basically Financial. privilege by very much favoring the rich. in the admissions process but you come. at the subject with reporting on. something that. feels in a way bigger and even more. foundational to the question of higher. education you're finding that fewer and. fewer Americans even believe in the idea. of college so just walk us through those.

findings yeah so about a decade ago I. think Americans were feeling pretty. positively about higher education and. and you could see that in all kinds of. public opinion polls no matter how you. ask the question people would say. college was worth it parents would say I. want my kids to go to college graduates. would say this was worth it this. experience and then at some point in in. the last 10 years that really started to. shift and now when you look at public. opinion polls the answers are all going. in the opposite direction people are.

much more skeptical of college as an. institution they don't trust it parents. aren't sure they want to send their kids. young people aren't convinced that they. need a degree to do well and all of that. shift has happened just in the last. decade just how much more skeptical I. wonder if you can give us some of the. data points the number that really stuck. out to me in the public opinion polls is. that about a decade ago like 98 of. parents said that they expected their. kids to attend college I think at the. time it was just this this accepted.

truth right that's basically Universal. exactly that everyone was going to go to. college and now when you look at public. opinion polls it's about half of. American parents say they don't want. their kids to go to a four-year college. so that's this shift in public opinion. that's not just on the margins it's it's. a shift in how we think about this. institution and that shift in public. opinion was mirrored by a shift in who. was actually showing up on college. campuses so in the fall of 2010 there.

were more than 18 million undergraduates. on American college campuses in 2021. that figure dipped to 15.5 million so. that's 2.5 million young people who. disappeared from American college. campuses wow so Americas aren't just. losing faith in the idea of college. they're losing using enthusiasm to. attend college exactly and what you're. laying out is a really significant. change kind of in any time frame but. it's especially big within the period of.

just a decade and it's especially big. given that college has for so long felt. like a pillar of American society right. I think of it alongside home ownership. it has been held up as a central. component of the American dream with. proven long-standing financial upsides. and even as college has become extremely. expensive that image of financial upside. has endured that ultimately it's just. worth it so help us understand what. exactly has changed here.

well partly what's interesting is what. hasn't changed so there there is this. number that economists call the college. wage premium which is how much more a. typical college graduate is going to. earn than a typical high school graduate. that hit a boost of about 60 65 percent. way back in 2000 and it stayed at the. same level ever since college graduates. are still on on average making a whole. lot more than high school graduates. which is why so many people have. believed you're supposed to go to. college right on that level the.

financial benefit is real and so the. idea that I think people always had that. college was the way to achieve a. comfortable affluent life is quite valid. the problem that I think families and. economists are now coming to understand. inherent in the college wage premium is. that it measures your income but it. doesn't measure how much you you paid. for college and it doesn't measure how. much debt you have and so that. shortcoming is what has pushed a variety. of economists to come up with new ways.

of capturing I think a lot of American. families are feeling how worth it is a. college degree over the long term when. you factor in how much you're spending. and how much you owe and there's one set. of economists in St Louis came up with. this. calculation they call the college wealth. premium so unlike the college wage. premium which just measures how much a. college grad earns compared to a high. school grad this measures how much. wealth you accumulate your assets minus. your debts over the course of your.

lifetime and the picture they found of. how well College grads are doing was. much different than when you just look. at the college income premium on its own. well just explain that what does the. college wealth premium find that better. reflects reality than the college wage. premium that we have relied on so long. and that has put college at the center. of so many people's aspirations well it. finds that it has really shifted over. time when you were born what what. generation you're a part of makes a huge. difference so for people born in the 40s.

and 50s and 60s the college wealth. premium is functioning exactly the way. it's supposed to so the college grads. are amassing two or three times as much. wealth over their lifetime than High. School grads but when they looked at. young people who were born after 1980 in. the 1980s and 1990s their wealth benefit. was much smaller and for certain cohorts. for Black and Latino headed families. that college wealth premium had.

disappeared altogether so a college grad. wasn't amassing any more wealth over. their lifetime than a high school grad. so walk us through that I mean clearly. the financial math of attending college. isn't working any longer I think we can. guess why but just explain the mechanics. of that math and why a college degree. isn't creating the kind of wealth that. it used to even if it's still guarantees. higher wages.

well I think it has a lot to do with. debt and what people are paying for. college if you've got lots of debt your. household wealth is going to go down. there's lots of these college graduates. who are you know on paper earning quite. a bit of money but their debt has become. so high that they can't really. accumulate the kind of wealth that. earlier Generations were able to do but. even for those people who aren't going. into a lot of debt the amount of money. that they're spending on college is. still subtracted from their assets so.

one of the things that these economists. found is that even if you leave College. without any debt if your family has had. to plow a big percentage of their assets. into your college education that makes a. big difference that is money that can't. go towards you know a down payment on a. first home or a nest egg to start a. family or a way to start a small. business and especially in young. adulthood those are the sorts of things. that really start to accumulate wealth. so that's a huge part of it but the. costs of college hurt wealth.

accumulation for almost everybody. hmm and that's the incentive to attend. college becomes for some virtually. non-existent yeah I mean if if you're. looking at that number if you're looking. at how much wealth am I going to have. over my lifetime it is harder to make. the case especially for younger people. that a college degree is going to really. pay off. I'm curious Paul whether the existence. or the absence of the wealth premium for. those who attend college versus those. who don't is dependent on some of the. decisions people make about colleges.

attending a public college for example. versus a potentially much more expensive. private college or what you major in and. therefore how lucrative your career is. as a result yes this is another big. finding that economists have made over. the last few years that helps explain I. think this shift in public opinion which. is. that there's much more risk there's much. more uncertainty in going to college it. really does depend on on who you are on. what you major in on where you go so.

some of the numbers that really stand. out to me is that if you can guarantee. that you are going to graduate uh from. college in four years and if college is. absolutely free then in this amazingly. hypothetical world you have a 96 chance. of having College pay off over your. lifetime but once those sort of. imaginary ideas start to fade your. chance of coming out ahead is much less. so if you have a normal risk of dropping. out about 40 percent of people who start.

College Dropout before they finish. suddenly you only have three and four. chance of earning more than a high. school graduate once you start. increasing the amount that you spend. spending 25 000 spending fifty thousand. dollars your chance of winning the. college gamble becomes less and less. comes down to close to 50 percent and it. really also matters what your major is. if you major in a science technology. engineering math field then your chances. bump up once again and you're likely to.

win the bet but if you're taking. anything else if you're studying Arts. Humanities a social science degree your. chance of coming out ahead if you're. spending even twenty five thousand. dollars a year on college is no better. than a coin flip hmm in other words. there are a lot of well-trodden widely. taken routes to college that are. ensuring that you will not have a. college wealth premium over someone who. didn't attend college well they're not. quite ensuring it but they are putting. it at risk and that that's I think what. really changes it's just much more of a.

gamble than it used to be I mean one way. of thinking about it is that going to. college used to be like investing in a. treasury bill you know it was a very. solid boring responsible thing to do now. it's much more like going to a casino. you might come out ahead you might win. big but you also might lose your shirt. you might lose everything and that I. think is what has really changed and. what young people especially are. responding to they feel this sense of. risk in going to college that didn't. used to be there and I think.

understandably just makes them and their. families feel much more anxious about. this investment so when we remove the. college wealth premium then we have. clearly taken away what I think many. would argue is the single biggest. incentive to attend college in the first. place which helps explain why millions. of people are opting not to go to. college. but the polling you cited at the. beginning of our conversation makes me. wonder if there's more to this than just. bad economic outcomes of attending. college you said that an increasing.

number of Americans just have a dim view. of college itself which feels a little. bit separate and apart from just money. and I wonder what you think is going on. there I think you're right I think there. is more going on than just economics I. think there is a a cultural shift and. significantly a political shift that is. happening at the same time where certain. Americans especially those on the. conservative side of the political. Spectrum Republicans and those who lean. toward the Republican party they are the.

ones who have turned against College. most vehemently over the last decade or. so it's amazing when you look at the. public opinion polling so up to about. 2015 Republicans and Democrats were. answering questions about college and. more or less the same way they were both. mostly on board with the college idea. and then beginning in 2015 Republican. public opinion about college just fell. off a cliff it just nosedive no matter. how you ask the question for some reason. or other Republicans were just becoming.

much more skeptical about college and. that has continued to today. I'm curious what your reporting leads. you to conclude is the cause of that. this is pre-trump this is. pre-pandemic what is it about college in. the 2015 era that becomes partisan well. I talked to a lot of conservative. education analysts for this story and. they gave slightly different answers but. you know this was a moment in in the. middle of that decade where cultural. politics were really shifting in some. way that was what Trump was reflecting.

when he started his campaign and there. was this sense I think among a lot of. conservatives that college campuses had. become these hotbeds of protests where. these you know spoiled rich kids were. were screaming and yelling and. interrupting their classes and I think. for for a lot of folks who uh were. looking at that especially from a. conservative perspective it just. undermined their sense that college was. something that they wanted to be a part. of God in other words culturally. speaking College was a place seen as.

increasingly hostile to conservative. viewpoints that us among conservatives. the view of colleges became less and. less appealing yeah and there was also. data that was coming out in this era to. support that so for the first time we. were able to see that on college. campuses there really were a whole lot. more students who identified as liberal. than students who identified as. conservatives so about three times as. many liberals as conservatives and a. separate survey of college faculty found. that there had been this shift from.

about a two to one ratio in favor of. liberals to about a five to one ratio. and all of this I think was happening at. the same time and so whether Republicans. were looking at those numbers or not. they were getting this sense that their. ideas and their children were not really. welcome on these campuses so on top of. college being less and less profitable. and lucrative as an economic proposition. which you've already described it's also. becoming less and less culturally. welcoming as a proposition for many on.

the right and as a result you have two. very large factors Weighing on people's. desire to go to college yeah and I think. in many parts of the country those two. things really come together into one. sort of cultural sense that college is. not a good idea in the fall 2016 I was. doing a lot of reporting in a rural. County of Western North Carolina that. had just gone for president Trump by. huge margins and when I was talking to. young people there what I found was that. a lot of them had had you know really.

negative experiences in college they had. dropped out they owed a ton of money. they didn't feel good about themselves. and a lot of family members were. discouraging their younger kids from. going on to college I think if you're. just looking at it through an economic. lens it doesn't feel good to just say. you know we can't afford this or you're. not smart enough to go to college but. when you're able to turn that into sort. of a culture war and say we're not going. to college because you know that's the. enemy camp those aren't people like us I. think in some ways it feels much more.

palatable hmm so the big question I'm. left with Paul is how much ultimately. does this really matter let me explain. college is too expensive so I don't. attend college is too liberal so I don't. attend. problem solved a little bit right. no I mean for individual young people. you can argue that it might make sense. not to attend college but when you look. at the country as a whole millions of.

young people opting out of college it's. a disaster it is not going to work at. all our economy is just not set up to. lose millions of college graduates. [Music]. we'll be right back. thank you. [Music].

Paul before the break you said that our. economy just isn't really set up for a. large number of people to opt out of. college what exactly do you mean by that. when you talk to economists about what. this economy is going to need over the. next decade what they tell you is that. we need more Bas there's one specific. economic report that says there's going. to be 8.5 million missing American VA.

holders by the end of this decade well. 8.5 million college graduates of the. economy simply does not have exactly. okay so many of those jobs might not be. filled with college graduates but what. about the people without college degrees. aren't there still plenty of good jobs. for Americans who might look at college. and say it's too expensive that is too. much debt so I'm going to be a plumber. I'm going to be a mechanic I'm going to. have a good paying job that doesn't.

require a college degree that's really. the problem with these Financial. calculations just because a college. degree often doesn't pay off it doesn't. mean that there's lots of opportunity. for high school graduates so yes there. are some jobs in the skilled trades in. in Palm and Welding that can pay a. decent middle class wage but there. aren't that many of them and the reality. is that for most people who just have a. high school diploma as their highest.

educational credential the opportunities. are really limited the Bureau of Labor. Statistics calculated what are the. fastest growing jobs over the next. decade for folks who don't have anything. more than a high school degree and it's. mostly home health aids Food Service. workers Cooks warehouse workers and all. of these jobs pay a median salary of. less than thirty one thousand dollars a. year in other words for those who don't. have a college degree getting a middle. class job is going to be increasingly.

difficult because this idea that there. are tons of great high-paying for. example plumbing jobs all over the. country which is something you hear that. turns out to be a mythology yeah I mean. there are some of them but there aren't. enough and if we have a whole lot of. people who only have a high school. diploma their opportunity are going to. get worse and worse so this is a very. complicated little conundrum that you're. outlining here because if it's now going. to be almost impossible. to enter the middle class with only a.

high school education there's a kind of. damned if you do Dan if you don't. quality to this decision around whether. to go to college. if you're looking at college and. thinking that's just too much Dad then. it doesn't make sense to go but without. that college degree you are permanently. consigned to a low-paying job those are. two pretty rough options yeah and I. think this has a lot to do with why so. many Americans are angry at higher. education it's partly that sense that. they're really on the horns of this.

dilemma would just explain that why. would all this frustration be channeled. at College I think higher education is. embedded in a certain National economy. that is increasingly unfair people look. at higher education and they see that it. is unfair as well that there are this. limited number of high quality. institutions that that have a lot more. Rich Kids attending them than poor kids. and they see lots of other institutions. where people are coming out without a. lot of opportunities and with a lot of. debt and that just makes them.

understandably mad and understandably. anxious in other words college is. another element of a rigged system yeah. and it's actually a very central element. of a rigged system you know I mean if. like the cost of cars or the cost of. houses feels really unfair that's not a. thing that gives you opportunity in the. world it's not a thing that you need in. order to have a middle class life and so. I think part of the anger about higher. education comes from this idea that here. is this thing that we we've been told. you know arguably correctly is an.

essential element of creating. opportunity for yourself for your. children. and yet we've created a system in which. it is increasingly unavailable to lots. of middle class people. so this anger you're describing and the. entire economic mismatch between the. need for college graduates and so many. financial reasons not to go to college. that exists now it feels like the kind. of question that would be pretty urgent. for policy makers in Washington to think. about and to come up with pretty bold. solutions for and we know that some of.

those Solutions are out there right. Senator Bernie Sanders has a free. college for all plan President Biden has. a plan that he's tried to put into place. to reduce. loan debt for college graduates this is. not a problem that hasn't been pretty. well thought through but we also know. how quickly and you kind of hinted at. this earlier. we know how quickly these proposals have. become politicized because of its. reality that Republicans View College. very differently than Democrats so there. isn't really a consensus right now in.

the country that this is an institution. in American life worth promoting and. protecting access to so how should we. think about all of that and the. likelihood that any real fix is in the. offing yeah I mean I I think it is the. real danger in this shift in public. opinion I mean I you know share a lot of. the anxiety and the anger that I think. goes into these public opinion polls. people saying you know they don't have. confidence in college they don't think. it's fair they don't aren't sure that. it's worth it but the problem is that.

that has turned people away from wanting. to try to fix it I think that's. especially true on the Republican side. of the aisle but I think it's true for a. lot of Democrats as well who also feel a. lot of anger uh at College people trying. to pay off student loans people trying. to get into the right kind of college. because we've created a higher education. system that is so competitive that is so. unequal I don't think there's a real. constituency for improving it for fixing. it so I think any political solution has.

to be accompanied by a kind of a. cultural shift as well where we think. about higher education as a different. sort of thing as something that is a. public good and not just a consumer good. explain that distinction. sure so mostly for instance we think. about public education right we think. about high school we think about the. education of 18 year olds as a public. good and then one year later we want to. put all of these same kids into this. incredibly competitive confusing system. where they have to figure out how to get.

to the right College where it's. extremely risky there isn't enough. information for them to make good. decisions and the cost is something that. we've decided that they and their. families need to bear on their own it. doesn't make any sense there's not. actually a big difference between an 18. year old and a 19 year old but we've. created a system where an 18 year old. gets a free public education and a 19. year old has to negotiate this. incredibly complex and expensive system. now that you mentioned it that does feel. like a pretty arbitrary cut off for when. we ensure someone's education is.

publicly funded to when we basically. throw them to the wolves. yeah I mean when I think about it I. think about this earlier moment in. American history about 100 years ago. when it's this period called the high. school movement so in about 1910 only. about 10 of Young Americans were. graduating from high school and then. there was this shift in the economy. where suddenly there weren't so many. jobs on farms and in simple factories. and people needed more education and the. way that communities in the country as a.

whole responded to that shift in the. economy was by saying all right be it. sixth grade education isn't enough we. need to create these institutions in our. towns in our cities that will educate. people up to age 18 and we're going to. build them together we're going to pay. for them together we're going to raise. our taxes in order to do this and what. was created was this incredibly well. educated for the time American middle. class that became the most powerful. economy in the world and now the country. is getting the same sorts of signals. where actually 100 years later no.

surprise education up to 18 is no longer. enough you do need more education in our. to succeed in this technological economy. and instead of saying okay let's get. together and create a free public. education system that's going to get. people another few years of education so. they can compete in this economy we have. decided to just as you put it through. young people to the wolves and say it's. up to you to figure out how you're going. to get to the right kind of education. and how you're going to pay for it so. Paul based on your reporting here I. wonder who you ultimately conclude is.

responsible for fixing this the most is. it the colleges themselves who have. allowed their tuitions to balloon so. much or is the responsibility with. elected officials who hold the purse. strings that could pump so much more. money into these colleges and alleviate. the debt that's at the heart of why. college is so unattractive right now. well I think it's a big enough problem. that it is going to take lots of. different actors to solve but in the end.

I do think it is really a political. problem. I mean it's certainly true that we have. these big political divisions but in the. end this should be a non-partisan issue. the economic problems of turning away. from college like we are as a nation. those are going to affect Democrats and. Republicans equally. and so getting past that kind of. political divide turning College from. this thing where it becomes part of your. identity and part of your ideology to. just something that you know is an.

economic fact is something that young. people really should do and have. opportunities to do when they finish. High School. shifting that kind of cultural idea I. think would be the first step towards. solving the political problem. foreign. thank you very much we appreciate it. thank you. we'll be right back.

here's what else you need to know today. for the second year in a row. this Gathering. dedicated to peaceful resolution of. conflicts. it's darkened by the shadow of war in a. speech before the United Nations General. Assembly on Tuesday President Biden. sought to Rally the world to stick with. Ukraine in its 18-month long war against. Russia warning that appeasing Russia in.

any way would reward its aggression and. encourage it to use further Force to. redraw the international map Russia. belated the world will grow weary. and allow it to brutalize Ukraine. without consequence. but I ask you this. if we abandon the core principles of the. United States to appease an aggressor. can any member. stayed in this body feel confident that. they are protected.

if you allow Ukraine to be carved up. [Music]. is the independence of Any Nation secure. I'd respectfully suggest the answer is. no. in his own speech before the assembly. Ukrainian president vludimir zielinski. picked up where Biden left off warning. the nations of the U.N that should. Ukraine fall they could be next many. suits in the General Assembly Hall may. become empty.

empty if Russia succeeds with its. Treasury and aggression. [Music]. today's episode was produced by Michael. Simon Johnson summer to mod and Carlos. Prieto it was edited by Devin Taylor and. Lisa Chao contains original music by. Will Reed and Dan Powell and was. engineered by Chris Wood. our theme music is by Jim runberg and.

Ben Landsberg of wonderly. [Music]. [Music]. that's it for the daily I'm Michael. Navarro see you tomorrow. [Music].