Is $60 Billion Enough to Save Ukraine?

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily late last night a long delayed Aid. package for Ukraine passed its final. hurdle in Congress throwing the. embattled country a $60 billion Lifeline. but given Ukraine's desperation on the. battlefield will that be enough to save. it today my colleague Mark santor.

explains it's Wednesday April. [Music]. 24th so Mark last night after many many. months the US Congress finally approved. an aid package to Ukraine it passed in. the Senate just before 10 p.m. and of. course it's very very substantial. billions and billions of dollars but we. also know that the war is not going well.

at all for the ukrainians right now. you've been in Ukraine covering this war. since the beginning in 20122 you're in. Kiev right now so my question for you is. this what does all of this money mean. for Ukraine at this point in the war is. it going to make a difference given the. state of. things 100% it's going to make a. difference and the ukrainians had been. waiting for months and months for this. news 60 billion of which 46 billion is.

military aid basically is the equivalent. of all that the United States has given. Ukraine over the past two years in total. so it's a lot of money it's a lot of. supplies it can buy a lot of what. Ukraine needs but they need it right now. because the situation across the front. has been turning increasingly Grim for. The ukrainians Who find themselves. outmanned and out guned so on that point. mark it's been a couple of months now. since we last talked about the war on.

the show and you know I've been reading. your coverage our colleagues coverage. and it looks like a very desperate. situation for the ukrainians remind us. why that is right so first of all if we. just step back a. little first year of the war was one. that started with shock at the breath of. what Russia was trying to do invade and. capture a nation of 40 million people. the largest in Europe and then it was. about Russian failure and Ukrainian.

success in pushing back that Invasion. first protecting the capital then. reclaiming like 50% of the country right. that was the David and Goliath story. that was year one yeah exactly and I. think Ukraine surprised the world they. surprised the Kremlin and maybe even. they surprised themselves a bit but the. year ended on sort of this optimistic. note that Ukraine cannot just hold their. own but they can take the fight to the. Russians and then we get to year. two and year two is this year of Gastly.

violence but very little change along. the front lines Russia tries to do an. offensive they fail Ukraine tries to do. an offensive they fail Russia again they. try and gain more land and largely fail. so you have this sort of back and forth. going on but at the end of year two. something changes for the first time in. the course of the war USA first slows. and then it basically stops so as we get. into year three now we see the. ukrainians they're not not just stuck.

but they're basically fighting to hold. on for dear. [Music]. life and what does it look like right. now to be holding on for dear life. describe that for us so Sabrina there. are three main challenges and the first. most critical and probably the most. obvious is a shortage of weapons and. ammunition for those weapons it's pretty. simple in war the side that can't shoot. back generally.

loses and when we would go on visits to. the front line over the course of the. winter and then into the spring here. what we found were commanders who were. rationing their shells they had maybe. one for every three Russian shells in. the late winter and then it went to one. to every for every five Russian shells. and more recently it's 1 to 10 so they. found themselves you know not just in a. position of being outgunned but outgun. to such a degree that they might have to. fall back.

simply put running out of bullets which. is the most basic building block of War. yeah and this war in particular 80% of. the deaths have been from direct fire. from artillery and Rockets and the way. the Russians fight sending wave after. wave of soldiers to attack Ukrainian. trenches and. fortifications the main way you stop. these waves of attacks is kill as many. of the attackers as you can and without. artillery you simply can't kill enough.

people and So eventually their positions. will become overrun and they'll have to. fall back and in the past couple months. we've started to really see that and the. impact it's having on the battlefield as. Ukraine loses. territory okay so that's artillery what. else what I think almost every Ukrainian. would tell you what they desperately. need are air defense systems and the. Munitions that make those systems work. so when we're talking about air defense. systems we're talking about a whole.

range of stuff from basically guys on. the back of pickup trucks with machine. guns who are searching for Russian. drones in the sky to the most. sophisticated air defense systems that. only America can provide which are. called The Patriot batteries so Russia's. most sophisticated missiles fly like 10. times the speed of sound that's where. you need something like the Patriot and. these are the only thing Ukraine has. really that can shoot down Russian. ballistic missiles so these are like.

defending the skies basically like it's. very very dangerous to not have them. it's not just dangerous for the people. in the cities and towns it's really. dangerous for the troops on the front. line because the other thing air defense. systems give you is it prevents or at. least it deters Russian fighter pilots. from flying into the area where these. things are operating so once these air. defenses basically ran out Russian. fighter bombers are are now basically.

strafing the front line flying closer. and closer and dropping these massive. bombs onto Ukrainian fortifications and. also some of these towns and cities that. had been out of range of Russian. Artillery and Mark what are we seeing as. a result of Ukraine being kind of naked. in the sky like this well on the front. it's opened up this whole new challenge. because it's allowed Russian war planes. to basically dip into Russia's almost. Limitless stock of one ton two ton big.

bombs that were built ages ago but that. they can strap Wings to and guidance. systems and obliterate Ukrainian. fortifications I mean I'll just tell you. personally you know whenever you go into. a combat zone it's the noise that. strikes you first but the first time I. heard these things it shocked me we were. outside of Diva maybe two miles away and. you just heard this thunder and Russia. was dropping at the peak of the battle. for atifa something like 250 of these in.

48 hours each of them weighing and. loaded with more than one ton of. explosives it's really hard to get your. head around just how big this is so the. introduction of these in Mass along the. front has really changed the dynamic and. presented all kinds of problems for the. ukrainians of DF of course being the. town that Russia took this winter after. practically obliterating it exactly and. so then when you take this all together. the introduction of these heavy bombs. the lack of Defense against ballistic.

missiles what you see is it's starting. to take a growing toll on civilians as. well the UN estimated that in March we. saw a 20% increase in the number of. Civilian deaths compared to just the. month before and they attributed that. mostly to widespread and more successful. Russian aerial strikes so this is really. just a disaster for Ukraine right I mean. it's running out of almost everything. and this is put it in kind of a. defensive Crouch it's really a complete.

turnaround from where it was at the. beginning of the war what's the second. challenge Ukraine has been dealing with. well this is a challenge that affects. really the entire country and that has. to do with the power grid the ability of. Russia to Target and Target successfully. a number of key Ukrainian power. generating facilities has had a. devastating impact on Ukraine's ability. to Supply Power particularly in the East. we just came back from harke in eastern.

Ukraine where Russia has completely. destroyed every single thermal power. plant the city had to produce its own. power so it's basically trying to bring. power from across the country to provide. at least a minimal level of energy for. critical infrastructure like water and. sewage and people have you know. sometimes as little as two three hours. of power a day and then if you just you. know pull back a bit you look across the. country and I'm met with the head of one.

of the major power utilities here who. said that these strikes starting on. March 22nd really have been more. successful and done more damage to the. Ukrainian power grid than even the. strikes that occurred in the first. winter of War which if you remember. Sabrina those almost took down the grid. and caused the country to go into a. blackout so Ukraine is in a really tough. spot when it comes to power generation. so this all all adds up to a pretty.

serious problem for Ukraine right I mean. lack of electricity can really a. country's economy absolutely Sabrina and. you know these power outages they affect. civilians across the. country which brings us to probably our. third biggest challenge for Ukraine. which is people they need soldiers and. this is by all accounts the deadliest. war since the end of the second world. war even conservative estimates put the. number of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers.

killed and wounded at over a half a. million wow the Russians are dying. probably at a rate of maybe 3 to one. according to most analysts although. these numbers are fuzzy so you have a. situation where you have this incredibly. deadly front and you have people across. the country who still by and large. supporting the military doing what they. can sewing blankets donating building. drones volunteering in many ways. but a lot of people are really just.

afraid afraid that if they go volunteer. or go into the military they're going to. be put into the Infantry right away and. then rushed off to the front and put in. a trench and quite frankly it's it's. really. scary so that is a big problem for. Ukraine if they're not getting the. soldiers at the front then they're not. really able to continue their War so. what are they doing to combat that well. the main way is something they call. mobilization we would probably call a.

draft which is basically recruiting. everyone between a certain age to serve. in the military but it was created back. in the Soviet era there are ways that. people find around it for instance by. not registering other people have been. found to sort of paid bribes to get out. of it a few thousand have fled the. country to avoid it basically it was. just a mess and so the zalinsky. government knew they needed to rewrite.

and change this law to give it a bit. more order but that was politically. risky because this is a country that. does not have a lot of young men so. what's ended up happening is you have. the situation where people who signed up. more than two years ago are still. fighting on the front with very little. rest and the average age of the soldier. in the trenches is now 40 wow 40 that's. really up there for a.

soldier precisely and the government. here was really resistant and afraid of. throwing its youngest generation and. losing them in this war but on the flip. side most people here really feel this. is an existential War a struggle for. their survival so if they don't win it. there will be no Society for these young. people worth growing up in so earlier. this month president zalinski relent did. and he lowered the draft age from 27 to.

25 so effectively broadening the pool of. potential men he could draft as soldiers. right so upping his numbers exactly. that's the goal but again these things. take time to translate from legislation. and changes to the battlefield which of. course brings us to this moment and the. passage of the aid through Congress. right and the key question is what's. coming and perhaps more importantly how.

fast is it going to get. [Music]. here we'll be right back. [Music].

so the aid package finally passed. through Congress it's real what does it. look like in practice I mean what are. the actual things that Ukraine is going. to be getting well Sabrina as we're. taping this we don't know precisely but. we do know broadly what's going to be in. these first batch of stuff coming here. which is number one the ammunition for. the artillery number two the air defense.

missiles and interceptors for the air. defense systems but most critically more. than each individual thing is quantity. they're going to get resupplies in the. kind of quantity they desperately need. as much as each particular thing they. need is important it's also important. that they get a lot of them so. essentially they're hoping that in this. Aid package they'll be able to replenish. their ammunition their artillery and. Take Back Control of their Skies by. getting some replenishments of those.

Patriot missiles that you were telling. us about precisely to close the skies. and basically repair and fortify and. solidify what are currently fraying. front lines that are in danger along. multiple points of the front and what. else are they going to get so one of the. things they've asked for and wanted. since the earliest months of the war. which are Precision long range missiles. known as attacks attacks yeah attacks uh.

it's an abbreviation but it does what it. sounds like which is it attacks and it. it can attack at distance and so what. Ukraine has wanted desperately is to be. able to hit Russia anywhere on Ukrainian. territory including Crimea where Russian. forces are currently based and for the. longest time throughout this war Ukraine. has kind of been having to fight with. one hand tied behind its back Russia can.

reach any corner of Ukraine but Ukraine. can't even hit Russia on every corner of. their own country and the Biden. Administration for months and months. worried that these weapons could be seen. as escalatory in some way by Moscow but. I think the decision was made that. Ukraine needs all it can at this moment. in the fight and Ukraine is hoping to. use these weapons to go after some. targets that have long been on their. list none more so than this bridge that.

connects Crimea to Russia after Russia. illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 Putin. you know this is for him the symbol of. the connection between Crimea and Russia. and for ukrainians it's the exact. opposite they've tried twice now to take. it out they've blown up a truck bomb on. it they've sent Maritime drones loaded. with explosives to blow up under it. they've done damage to it but they. haven't been able to take out and I.

think anyone who's watched this war. knows that this on the list of targets. Ukraine has that they think could make a. difference this bridge is high up on. that list it would be important. militarily but also very important. symbolically like Ukraine would actually. be able to strike this important piece. of infrastructure for the Russians. exactly okay so the Americans are. actually relenting on their earlier. skepticism and actually giving the. ukrainians something that is very. precise and potenti damaging for Russia.

right and the Biden Administration has. relented and is allowing Ukraine's. allies in Europe to provide something. else Ukraine desperately wanted which. are F-16 fighter jets now these are not. part of this military aid package but it. took a decision of the Biden. Administration to allow these fighter. jets to be sent to Ukraine since they're. American made and several European. countries have already committed to. giving ukra dozens of these and Pilots.

as we speak have been training on them. for months we don't know when they're. going to appear in the sky some people. think by mid late summer but that will. be another part of what Ukraine thinks. is essential to have the kind of layered. air defense that will allow it to. finally protect its Skies from these. deadly and Relentless bombardments okay. so the US is replenishing supplies but. it's also sending stuff that they'd. never sent before including American. made f-16s through the Europeans but.

what do we know about when it will. actually get to Ukraine like What's the. timing here yeah so again this comes. back to the question of quantity I think. you know most people believe here will. start to see things relatively quickly. that some of this is positioned in. Poland already or in Europe and so the. minute after the president signs it. stuff will start moving but it's a. question really of how much they can get. and how fast so we talked earlier about.

shell hunger this need of Ukrainian. commanders to be able to at least start. to match the number of shells the. Russians have and on an average day here. Ukraine can fire 10,000 rounds to. Russia's 20,000 rounds I mean we're. talking thousands and thousands of. rounds every day day after day so some. of it will move in quickly but it's much. harder to calculate when it'll start to. have a dynamic impact on the battlefield. but most people think uh it's probably a. month or two before we really see this.

start to reshape the front line in the. fight there at least so this is a pretty. important moment and a real window of. time in which the Russians could kind of. take advantage of the ukrainians not. having the stuff yet right 100% Russia. they know that this stuff is coming and. so now they whatever plans they had they. might want to step up the Ukrainian. intelligence officials we talked to all. think that this next month here is going.

to be particularly violent there's going. to be things that probably go wrong for. Ukraine and they're trying to brace the. public for that but they also have this. now because of this Aid bill passed by. the US chiefly this sort of longer term. optimism that they know that they're. going to stay in the fight whatever. these next few weeks bring and what are. we seeing the Russians actually do. what's happening right now on the front. yeah so nobody I speak to thinks the. fight's going to suddenly speed up up. somehow very dramatically and and.

massive amounts of land will will change. hands but the place right now where. everyone is watching is a little Hilltop. town that before the war had maybe. 15,000 people is now maybe a few hundred. left there that's been turned into. basically a Ukrainian Garrison just a. few miles west of bmot that serves as. sort of a key to the Eastern front in. some ways because if the Russians can. manage to drive the ukrainians out of. there it would give them these elevated.

Heights to attack some of the last. remaining Ukrainian fortified cities in. the East so Ukraine is potentially about. to lose a key town to Russia right and. Russia is using the full arsenal the. advantage in ammunition and artillery. those big bombs they're dropping from. war planes and their advantage in. Manpower Point 20 to 25,000 soldiers to. take this little town that's about 5. square miles wide and president zinski.

believes that they're doing it because. President Putin wants to have a victory. before May 9th and May 9th is this day. that was traditionally meant to. celebrate the Soviet Union's victory. over Nazi Germany but that Putin has. turned into this Marshall patriotic. display of Russian power right this is. kind of how he projects his power in the. country ex and he wants to have a. victory to show right so Mark stepping. back here for a moment you know we've.

talked a lot on the show about how the. US Aid to Ukraine has never really been. quite at a level where Ukraine could. actually win the war right that it. stayed at this level where Ukraine. doesn't lose but isn't quite enough to. actually help it win I mean Ukraine is. in this terrible situation is this. enough to really jolt it into a winning. posture. what is this current trunch going to do.

well s first and foremost what it's. going to do is stop the bleeding to some. degree it's going to give Ukraine a. better chance of preventing Russia from. taking more territory and I think it's. really worth pausing here and. remembering what Ukrainian defeat looks. like we we don't have to guess we've. seen places where Russian soldiers. occupied and then were driven out and I. visited the mass Graves where those. Russian soldiers murdered civilians the.

torture chambers where they put. civilians trying to get information from. them we know that the Russian army. leaves a trail of Destruction everywhere. in its wake so first and foremost what. the ukrainians hope is that this robust. Aid package will allow them to stop the. Russian advance and then give them time. to regroup and rebuild so that going. forward they can take the fight back to. the Russians but that's part two part. one is.

surviving one thing that seems clear to. me you know just from an American. political context is that this is. probably it for American Aid I mean this. is likely the final package like the end. of the line do ukrainians understand. that well I think before this long delay. in the aid everyone was looking at a. very specific date on the calendar which. was the American presidential election. nobody's under any illusions that. without American Support Ukraine would.

probably lose this war they certainly. couldn't win this war and so I think you. know when we say what's going to happen. next this is enough money to get through. the next six months it seems like along. with stepped up European Aid and. Ukraine's own domestic production but I. think that everyone is watching. anxiously to see what happens in the. American presidential election and then. what impact that will have on American. support for Ukraine in this. war and Mark what about ukrainians.

themselves what are they saying you talk. to people around the country it's. remarkable how much this package has. lifted the spirits of people across the. country who quite frankly have been. going through some of the worst months. since the earliest chaotic days of the. war but Sabrina it's important to. remember and not really be under any. Illusions here uh about just how hard it. is for ukrainians not just the soldiers. but millions of civilians. I recently took a trip out to the city.

of harke and even though there are still. 1.3 million people there they are now. living under a level of bombardment we. haven't seen since the first weeks of. the war and what we found in harke was. the question of what's going to happen. is not this meta question of how does. the war turn out it is how do I survive. the day we drove around with paramedics. firefighters and we saw block after. block with you know buildings all their. Windows shattered and blown out some.

scarred with shrapnel others reduced to. Rubble it's a big city so even with a. Relentless missile bombardment there's. still activity people amazingly go to. work and go to coffee shops but at the. same time they go to bed each night with. the knowledge that the next missile. might fall either on them or someone. they love. [Music]. so Sabrina at its most basic level what.

this Aid does for ukrainians who on a. daily bases are worried about what's. going to happen the next day is it. allows them to survive to fight and to. protect their cities from Russian. missile strikes and also to they hope. stabilize the situation on the. front but what this package doesn't do. is tell us the path forward for how. Ukraine can achieve what they really. want their ultimate goal which is.

driving the Russians from their land and. securing the kind of victory that is. both. lasting and just in their. [Music]. minds mark thank you thank you Sabrina. [Music].

we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you should know. today on Tuesday in a major ruling the. Federal Trade Commission banned. companies from using non-compete. agreements that prevent their employees. from working for rival companies the FTC. argued that not competes which affect at.

least a fifth of private sector workers. hold down wages by making it hard to. switch jobs a reliable way of securing a. raise and during his second day of. testimony in the hush money trial of. Donald Trump David pecker the former. publisher of the national Inquirer. confirmed his role in what prosecutors. have described as conspiracy to promote. Trump's 2016 presidential campaign and. damage the campaigns of Trump's rivals.

on the stand pecker recalled a 2015. meeting in which Trump asked how pecker. could help his campaign in response. pecker told Trump quote I will be your. eyes and ears soon after in coordination. with Trump pecker said he began to use. the national Inquirer to purchase and. then kill off negative stories about. Trump in including claims that Trump had. fathered a child out of wedlock and had.

had an affair with a former Playboy. model pecker is expected to resume his. testimony. [Music]. tomorrow today's episode was produced by. Shannon Lynn Eric krupy and Michael. Simon Johnson it was edited by Lisa chow. and Brendan clink BG contains original. music by Dan Powell Marian Lozano and. Alicia bitu. and was engineered by Chris Wood our.

theme music is by Jim brunberg and Ben. Lanser of wonderly special thanks to. Katie. [Music]. Edmonson that's it for the daily I'm. Sabrina tavernes see you tomorrow. [Music].