Iran Retaliates

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily Israel's stunning series of. military successes against its longtime. foe hasbullah raised the question of. whether the group's backer Iran would. retaliate on Tuesday we got the answer. with the largest missile attack on.

Israeli territory in the country's. [Music]. history today my colleagues Patrick. Kingsley and Faraz fi on how Israel and. Iran each see this dangerous moment and. where it might. [Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. lead it's Thursday October 3rd.

[Music]. so Patrick the Middle East was already. in chaos and has only gotten worse and. really seems to be on the edge of some. big dangerous. unknown can you give us the State of. Affairs at 9:50 a.m. on Wednesday it. feels like we may be witnessing some. kind of paradigm shift the power.

dynamics in the region possibly shifting. before our. eyes Hezbollah the very powerful militia. in Lebanon adversary of. Israel state within a state within. Lebanon is severely weakened Israel has. been assassinating its leaders. methodically over the last several weeks. exploding hezbollah's pages and.

Communications devices mounting some of. the most intense. bombardments in contemporary Warfare. killing many heur operatives but also. many. civilians and the culmination of this. was the assassination of hezbollah's. leader Hassan nasah on Friday. evening that was a seismic event nasrala. was IM L influential immensely powerful.

and it's hard to overstate how much of a. blow his death was to Hezbollah he was. their Talisman he was their longtime. leader their strategist in particular he. was a key Ally of. Iran and he had turned Hezbollah into. one of the strongest fighting forces in. the Middle East and in the process. provided Iran with a strong military.

ally that was able to act as a powerful. and menacing deterrent to Israel should. Israel ever decide to attack Iran and to. destroy Iran's nuclear program so just. an enormous blow not just to Hezbollah. which for many decades had been this. kind of loaded gun pointed at Israel's. Head but the regional power behind has. buah Iran exactly but why now I mean.

since October 7th Israel and Hezbollah. have been going back and forth over that. border that's displaced tens of. thousands of people but it's been. bumping along in a kind of lowgrade way. for months why did Israel choose this. moment to kill Nella all the while it. was expected that if the war in Gaza. reached a conclusion the war between. Israel and Hezbollah on the northern. border would die down the there would.

also be a diplomatic solution between. the two sides there but what happened. this summer was the gradual realization. that the war in Gaza was not going to. end anytime soon that there was not. going to be a truce between Hamas and. Israel and the result was that Israel. decided that it could no longer wait for. a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. with its Lebanese adversary and decided. to try and end it V military means and.

so a few weeks ago they started. escalating moving beyond this low. intensity border war and eventually. culminating in the assassination of. Hassan Nala on. Friday and we had expected that if. Israel escalated to this extent. Hezbollah would match it with the same. kind of intensity firing deep into. Israeli territory bombarding Israel's. biggest cities with barrages of rockets.

and missiles entally taking out Israel's. power grid in reality that did not. happen and why not it's not entirely. clear but there were two possible. reasons one Hezbollah was genuinely. thrown into disarray its leaders killed. its strategists dead Israel may have. taken out so many hezb rocket stockpiles. that the group simply was not able to. follow through on its long planned.

assaults in addition Iran its biggest. benefactor and key Ally also for weeks. did not seem prepared to get. involved Israel killed hamas's political. leader hania in July and and Iran said. that it would respond in Revenge for. that attack because he was killed in an. Iranian military compound in tan the.

Iranian Capital but Iran didn't respond. to that and it didn't respond when hb's. commanders started getting killed it. didn't respond immediately when Nala was. killed and it felt over the weekend like. Israel had changed the rules of the game. that contrary to expectations it had. sufficiently instilled fear in Hezbollah. and Iran destroying their military. capabilities to the extent that were not.

able of firing back and that led late on. Monday to Israel taking things a step. further and sending Ground Forces into. Lebanon invading Lebanon with several. thousand troops and it felt that Israel. had been able to make more and more. dramatic moves without facing. significant consequence from Hezbollah. and its benefactor Iran.

[Music]. Patrick I'm thinking back to the. beginning of the Gaza war and and the. big fear of the US and the rest of the. world was that if Israel escalated. against Hezbollah it would be met with a. giant response and it would pull Iran in. and eventually the us into this big. Regional War this is why the Biden. Administration encouraged Netanyahu not. to do do it but as this was playing out.

as we were watching this over the past. 10 days or so it felt like maybe. everyone was wrong like that Israel. could roll through could decimate. Hezbollah and really not face a huge. consequence exactly and that's how it. felt until midafternoon on Tuesday when. we started getting reports from our. sources saying that maybe Iran.

after all that was planning a massive. attack the statement just out from the. White House here it is quote the United. States has indications that Iran is. preparing to imminently launch a. ballistic missile attack against Israel. and suddenly the assumption that Iran. was not going to respond to any of these. moves over the last week appeared to. have been proven. wrong is Israel implemented sudden.

restrictions on movement and the number. of people that could gather in one place. which is always a sign that the Israeli. authorities think an attack is. imminent and then at 7:30 local. [Applause]. time we started to hear the chilling.

sound of the air raid sirens that are. triggered Whenever there is an incoming. rocket or missile attack and that. prompted millions of Israelis to hurry. into the bomb shelters that are in store. in many homes and workplaces Dana we're. seeing him coming from multiple. directions here to to my left and within. under 15 minutes oh. Jesus oh God okay guys we got to get off.

the roof these are coming down right. next to us here we started hearing the. sounds of the missiles. arriving all told Israel says that. roughly 180 missiles were fired in. several waves over the course of about. an. hour it was one of if not the biggest. attack of its kind in the history of.

warfare many if not most of the missiles. were intercepted by Israel's air defense. system and US Naval forces stationed in. the Eastern Mediterranean helped shoot. down more some fell to Earth causing. craters in several parts of Israel the. upshot was that only one person was. killed a Palestinian in the occupied.

West. Bank and there was not significant. damage to Israeli infrastructure apart. from three air bases and possibly the. area of the mosad headquarters the. headquarters of Israel's foreign. intelligence. agency nevertheless it felt like a. significant escalation from Iran there. were missiles aimed and which even hit.

some of the densest urban areas in the. country and it feels like Iran did this. knowing that Israel would feel that it. had little or no choice but to respond. in kind well where is it going to go. from now how is Israel thinking about. the retaliation to what you're saying is. this huge Counterattack from Iran now we. waiting very tensely to see how Israel. responds from we understand both.

listening to the words of Israeli. leaders themselves but also talking. behind the scenes to officials and. diplomats and analysts there is no way. that Israel will let this pass they will. respond and those options include taking. out oil refineries taking out military. bases and also uh at the far end of the. spectrum targeting Iran's nuclear. facilities in which Iran is accused of. trying to build a nuclear bomb you.

mentioned that the US military was. actively shooting down Rockets alongside. the Israeli air defense do we expect the. US to be actively involved in the. retaliation and will that effectively be. the United States being drawn into a war. with Iran that's the million doll. question right now how much support is. the US going to give Israel there are. certain things that Israel will find it. very difficult to do without us support. that includes targeting those nuclear.

facilities many of which are housed deep. below ground and which require rare. kinds of Bunker busting bombs and. particular kinds of planes in order to. carry those bombs and all of that. according to military experts really. requires American support. knowhow and even the US to carry it out. in the first place and from what we. understand from talking with us. officials the US is very unlikely to.

give that kind of support but there is. still very many other options that. Israel doesn't need the support of the. Biden Administration to carry out and. that includes targeting the oil. production facilities it includes. targeting military bases they've already. shown they have the ability to do that. and there's every expectation that. they'll do the same in a more dramatic. fashion in the coming days so if we see. Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in.

retaliation we should consider that a. big escalation but so far that seems. unlikely and you'd expect other targets. to be hit instead yes exactly at the. same time though you can't rule anything. out to Israel's critics Israel is the. main source of unrest in the Middle East. it's failed to reach peace with the. Palestinians it's invading Lebanon it's. bombing Beirut but in the mind of many.

Israelis they feel like they are the. victims of a malign Alliance led by Iran. that contains many powerful proxies. across the Middle East and they feel. that they have not done enough to. project strength and to deter Iran and. its allies from attacking Israel in the. future.

and the backdrop to all this is the deep. feelings of guilt and regret from both. Israel's military establishment and its. political leadership under Benjamin. Netanyahu about their failure to prevent. the Hamas Le attack on October 7th last. year and it's possible that those kinds. of emotions also inform their responses. to subsequent threats ever since right.

the biggest sign of weakness for Israel. in a very long time in a perception that. they seem very keen to reverse they feel. they're facing an existential threat and. to combat existential threats you have. to not only project strength but to be. [Music]. strong and what makes this such a recipe. for disaster is that they are not alone. in this Iran also feels more or less the.

same way that they feel a threat from. Israel and they feel they have shown. weakness in the past months and need to. rectify. that after the break farnaz fi on Iran's. perspective we'll be right. back so we just talked to our colleague. Patrick k Ley and he told us that right.

now Israel feels like it needs to appear. strong because they see Iran and Iran's. proxies as an existential threat and. that's why they're going so hard after. Hezbollah Iran's number one proxy but he. also said that Iran feels the same way. that they need to appear strong in the. face of Israel's attack on those proxies. and you faras are our resident Iran.

expert with deep sourcing inside. government circles tell us what all of. this looks like from Iran's point of. view from Iran's point of view they also. feel like they're under attack the. Investments that they've made in the. militia that are aligned with them in. the region the military Alliance known. as the axis of resistance from Hezbollah. in Lebanon to houthis in Yemen the. militias in Iraq and Syria it had viewed.

these militia as its forward defense as. a way to deter attacks on its own soil. and as a way to sort of keep a balance. of power with both Israel and the United. States so Israel's wave of attacks. recently on particularly Hezbollah that. culminated in the killing of Mr nasah. was a tremendous blow to Iran it. diminished a force that it had relied on. if it came under threat so for Iran the.

same way that Patrick explained that. Israel feels it has an existential. threat Iran feels like it's underere. existential threat so following Mr. NASA's killing they faced a choice to go. attack Israel directly and. retaliate and risk an all out war that. could threaten their own existence or if. they were going to lay low but risk. looking weak and invite possible attacks.

either way for Iran it was a difficult. Dilemma to face so what are they. weighing as they're trying to make this. choice between going hard on Israel or. restraining themselves they are weighing. whether Iran can afford to not respond. to. Israel you have to remember that in July. Israel assassinated hamas's political. leader isma hania inan on the eve of the.

inauguration of the new. president they killed him in a very. secure compound of the Revolutionary. guards and for Iran this was a big. humiliation it was very damaging to. their sense of national security or to. being able to protect their key allies. and guests on their own soil and for a. few weeks the immediate reaction from.

Iranian senior leaders and Military. commanders was a pledge to take revenge. against Israel to strike back against. Israel and there was a lot of diplomacy. particularly by the us through its. allies to try to convince it to exercise. restraint telling Iran that if you. attack Israel You're Going to jeopardize. a ceasefire that is being negotiated. between Israel and Hamas for Gaza that. you may risk taking the region into a.

wider war and so they convinced Iran to. hold back and so Iran did not retaliate. at that. [Music]. time yeah and it felt very surprising. because this was the mighty all powerful. much feared Iran and they were. humiliated on their own soil and they. just don't hit back which really defied. expectations. it really did defy expectations.

restraining themselves uh only to see in. a few months that Netanyahu was more. emboldened that it went into Lebanon. with the explosion of the pagers and the. walkie-talkies and the strike on. Hezbollah commanders and ultimately the. killing of Mr nasella Iranian officials. that I've been speaking to say that in. retrospect that decision was wrong and. the Reckoning inside Iran is that if.

they had reacted to Mr hana's killing. perhaps nasah would be. alive and that now looking ahead they. can't really have the world sitting with. that impression right Israel will keep. going further and further and the world. will see Iran as a kind of a paper tiger. exactly this is the narrative that they. wanted to change that Iran was weak that. Iran was was not going to defend itself.

and also remember Sabrina officials were. telling me that they were also worried. that these military alliances they' made. in the region would look at Iran and say. that you're not defending us that your. closest Ally was killed by Israel and. you did nothing so they also wanted to. bolster those ties and sort of not give. the impression that Iran would take it. all and not respond Iran very much felt. like Netanyahu was blowing through all. the red lines particularly with the.

killing of nasella and that they needed. to reestablish some rules so after days. of debating the senior military. commanders and the generals won the. debate inside Iran and convinced supreme. leader. Ayah to order direct strides against. Israel right and that is exactly what we. saw happen last night overnight the. largest military barage in the history. of the Israeli State as Patrick was.

saying exactly and now Iranians are. anxious the majority of people don't. want war and everyone's waiting to see. what's going to happen so it feels worth. pointing out at this point that the. Iranian response was huge and meant to. inflict serious damage to Israel but of. course it didn't succeed so I guess the. question is did this attack make Iran. look look strong like they wanted or did.

it actually reinforce how incapable. they've been in recent times to hurt. Israel I think from the perspective of. the Iranians and from the perspective of. the region it restored some of their. credibility both at home among their. constituents and also regionally on the. Arab Street as we saw a lot of cheering. in many Arab cities last night for. Iran's actions but in terms of military.

tactical success you're right that if. the aim was to take out Israeli military. bases they didn't achieve that because. Israel has the superior military power. and Air Force than intelligence to. Iran but if we want to take a broader. look at Iran's. strategy this just escalates the stakes. it makes it a lot more difficult to. calculate a war with Iran MH that sure.

Iran is maybe not. as strong as it wants to project but. it's not going to be defeated easily. that if Israel or the United States or. its allies decide to attack it they're. going to have a wider Regional chaos and. mess on their hands and I think for. Iran's. purposes that message is also something. that they wanted to send but how do they.

fight back Ian Iran's military as you. said is not a match for israels and. their main proxy Hezbollah is severely. weakened so what do they have to fight. back with well Iran's defense strategy. has been mostly investing in its. missiles and and drones and also. investing in unconventional warfare by. arming and funding and training these. militia groups in the region right so.

one view is that in the short term Iran. may not be a match for Israel's Superior. air power but in the long term because. of these proxies and because of the. Investments that it has made in the. region that it could win the longer game. or it could inflict more pain that way. as we've seen with the wars in. Afghanistan and with the war in Iraq and.

elsewhere Superior military Powers don't. always win the longer game and the other. thing that we've been hearing from. senior Iranian officials in the past few. months is this idea that if Iran feels. an existential threat it might change. its nuclear Doctrine and policy Iran is. maintained all these years that its. nuclear program is for peaceful. purposes but it has crossed the. threshold of being a nuclear capable.

State meaning that if it decides that it. wants to pursue a weaponized program it. can I see now experts say that building. a bomb would take closer to a year but. this is something that is even currently. being discussed just following. Nala's killing there were analysts on. state television saying that in order to. protect the Islamic Republic and the.

country Iran needed to build the. ultimate deterrence which is a nuclear. bomb unless of course Israel takes out. that capability first by bombing. it yes but that's very challenging it's. not easy it would require the help of. the United States and on Wednesday. President Biden said that he's against. an attack on Iran's nuclear. facilities but the question is whe. Israel has other ways including covert.

attacks and if it does decide that. unilaterally it wants to bomb the. nuclear facilities will it draw in the. United States even if it doesn't want to. and then if the US is drawn into this. war will Iran's powerful allies Russia. and China also enter the war right Iran. has forged very close military and. intelligence ties with Russia and very. close economic ties to China so you. could see a scenario where this war and.

this conflict could very quickly morph. into something much bigger than between. Iran and. Israel and one thing we've learned from. all these wars in the Middle East from. Afghanistan to Iraq to Syria and Gaza. and Lebanon and now potentially Iran is. that these wars start in one way but. there's no telling how they will end and. what the consequences will be and what.

other actors will get. involved and right now we're in one of. those pivotal moments where the chaos. and violence that we've seen raging in. the region for the past year could get. worse in unpredictable. ways we just don't. [Music]. know foros thank you thank you for. having me. Sabrina on Wednesday Israel said that. eight of its soldiers had been killed in.

close-range combat in southern Lebanon. it appeared to be the first direct. ground confrontation between Hezbollah. and Israel since Israel's invasion of. Lebanon began the fighting showed that. Hezbollah remained capable of carrying. out deadly attacks meanwhile in. lebanon's capital several huge. explosions erupted around midnight and. the Lebanese Health Ministry said early. Thursday that six people had been killed.

killed we'll be right. back here's what else you should know. today on Wednesday a federal judge. partly unsealed a new filing from. special counsel Jack Smith arguing that. the case that former president Donald. Trump tried to steal the 2020 election. should go forward despite a recent. Supreme Court Court ruling on his. immunity from prosecution for official.

conduct Smith used the 165 page brief to. paint the indictments many individual. allegations as private acts writing that. quote his scheme was fundamentally a. private one the brief includes new. details about Trump's response to the. January 6th attack on the capital when. an aid informed president Trump that. social media post had endangered the.

safety of Vice President Mike Pence. Trump responded quote so. [Music]. what and President Biden ordered 1,000. active duty troops to help with. hurricane Helen relief efforts at least. 176 people have died and it remains. unclear how many are still missing Biden. visited North and South Carolina to. assess the damage and vice president. kamla Harris scrapped her campaign plans.

in Pennsylvania and instead went to. Georgia to pledge the administration's. support for. Recovery today's episode was produced by. Nina Feldman as the chatra Luke Vander. plug and Diana win with help from Mary. Wilson and mo zadii it was edited by. Paige cowt and Liz. oalen contains original music by Dan. Powell Maran Lozano Diane Wong and Rowan.

nisto and was engineered by Alyssa. Moxley our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben lansberg of. [Music]. Wonderland that's it for the daily I'm. Serina tavernes see you tomorrow. [Music].