Iran on the Brink

over the past week. Massive protests. have erupted across Iran, >> calling for economic reform and an end. to the regime. In recent days, a full picture of the. government's crackdown on the protesters. has emerged, garnering worldwide.

condemnation. >> We don't want to see what's happening in. Iran happen. >> And threats of action from [music]. President Trump. >> One thing, when they start killing. thousands of people and now you're. telling me about hanging, we'll see how. that works out for them. It's not going. to work out good. >> From the [music] New York Times, I'm. Rachel Abrams and this is the Daily. Today, [music]. my colleague Farnaz Fihi on what's. driving the protesters [music] and why. the Iranian regime has never been closer.

to collapse. [music]. It's Wednesday, January 14th. Fern, thank you so much for joining us. >> Thank you for having me. Fernas, you. have been covering Iran for decades and. we at the Daily turn to you during these. huge moments of disruptions, eruptions, which is what it feels like we are in. right now in Iran. We're talking to you. Tuesday afternoon at about 1:30 p.m. And.

I'd like for you to start off by. characterizing what we are seeing on the. ground right now. For the past week, we've seen nationwide. protests in cities big and small, across. different demographics erupt all across. Iran with a singular demand for the end. of the Islamic Republic's rule. And this is coupled with an external. threat from the United States and.

Israel. >> Uh that there might be a military strike. on Iran and an economy that's in tail. spin which is creating a very unique and. difficult challenge for the government. because it's facing a kind of a perfect. storm. But we're also seeing the. government brutally responding to these. protests and violent crackdown unfolding. with thousands of people killed and. injured and bodies are piling up at the. morg and at the cemetery as reports of.

the killings trickle out. So as you said. it is a perfect storm of things that the. regime is dealing with in terms of. threats. So, I want to start with the. protests themselves and what's going on. inside the country. Can you just talk a. little bit about what's driving people. to the streets? >> People are just fed up, Rachel. They. feel like they've got nothing to lose. That this government is either unwilling. or incapable of bringing the kind of.

change that people want to see in their. lives. ranging from social freedom to. political freedom and of course the. economy which is fueling these protests. Now we have to remember that Iran's. economy has been in shambles for years. President Trump reimposed sanctions on. Iran targeting its oil revenues and. international banking structures in 2018. when he exited the nuclear deal between. Iran and world powers.

In the fall, the United Nations Security. Council re-imposed UN sanctions on Iran. through a mechanism known as snapback. related to Iran standoff with Europeans. in the United States over the nuclear. program. And from then the currency started. falling even further than it had before. But in December, [music]. on December 28th, the real plunged to an.

all-time low against the US dollar and. it sort of unleashed this wave of anger. because when the currency free falls, it. has a direct impact on inflation and on. the prices of everyday goods, including. food items. [music]. Inflation is now around 60%. Prices of everyday goods [music] such as. cooking oil, rice, eggs, like staples of. an Iranian grocery basket suddenly.

tripled overnight. So this wave of protest that we're. seeing now started in Thran's bazar, [music]. which is really the pulse of Iran's. economy. The bazar is the equivalent of. the stock market here, right? So when. the bazaris go on strike it really can. paralyze the economy. And the reason the. bazaris went on strike was because the. real was plunging against the dollar.

The prices were fluctuating and they. were facing too much instability. you know from hour to hour they had to. adjust the prices of what they had to. buy and what they had to procure and. what they had to sell because they. didn't know within a few hours what the. price of uh US dollar against the real. was going to be and there was this sense. that we want to put pressure on the. government and the central bank to try. to stabilize the currency because we. just can't operate this way [music].

and then it spread it first spread to. workingass areas to small towns that are. underdeveloped that are economically on. a lower level and it sort of percolated. that way for about a week. And how did. the government respond to all of this. growing unrest? >> The government initially responded with. a more consolatory tone with the. president Masud Peshan saying, "You're.

all my children. The protesters have a. legitimate reason to protest. we. understand and we feel bad. And then he. moved very quickly to take measures that. he thought would contain and appease. particularly the bazaar. He sacked the. governor of the central bank. He also. announced a new currency policy. And. then the government announced that it. was giving every Iranian a monthly.

stipend of $7, which because of the inflation, it could. only buy you a bottle of cooking oil. But the measures that he was taking not. only did little to appease people, but. they also had an opposite effect. So, it. sort of reinforced this feeling that the. people who are in charge don't really. know what they're doing and things are. not going to get better. And that fueled. more anger that sparked more outrage and.

you know momentum was sort of building. for people to come out in larger numbers. and say enough is enough. >> So, we're talking about a crisis that is. largely sparked. it sounds like from. this spiraling economy. But I think that. a lot of people who are listening to. this are going to remember another. protest just a few years ago that. started over women's rights. And there. was a question then too about whether. these protests whether this unrest would. actually topple the regime. Obviously.

that did not happen. But can you talk a. little bit more about why more broadly. Iranians are unhappy with the government. that goes beyond the economic reasons. you've just laid out? The Iranian society. is very different from the government. and clerics that rule it. >> The majority of people are a lot less. religious than what the state wants and. what the state has has enforced. They.

are not ideological. Sort of the. ideology of the Islamic Republic of the. 1970s were anti-American. We're. anti-imperialist. And that has faded in generation after. generation. And the younger generation, as we've seen in videos coming out, in. protests of of the women led uprising. that you mentioned, want a different. kind of a life. They're super plugged in. on social media. They see how the rest. of the world is living, how their.

counterparts in other countries, not. just in Europe and the US, but in. Turkey, in Dubai, in you know, other. Muslim countries, they have social. freedom. They have economic prosperity. And they're saying, why not us? Iran's a. very resourcerich country. It has oil. resources, energy resources. And what I. hear from many Iranians is that this is. not a government and a system that we. deserve. M. >> we have to remember that over the past. two decades there have been waves of.

pro-democracy. protests happening in Iran starting with. the student activist movement in 1999. the green movement in 2008 the women led. protests an uprising in 2022. all of them grassroots and mobilized and. organized by activists and leading. opposition figures inside the country. such as Iran's most prominent human.

rights activist Narus Muhammadi who's a. Nobel Peace Prize laurate who's. currently in jail and many people look. up to her as a leader of this. pro-democracy movement. So, we see all. of these forces at play on the streets. across Iran. In videos that we're seeing coming from. the protests that have gone viral, we. hear crowds chanting death to the. dictator,

death to the oppressor, whether be it. king or the supreme leader. Clerics get. lost. >> [cheering]. >> We're also hearing crowds chant long. live the sha a reference to the last. monarch of Iran Mahasha. who was toppled in the 1979 revolution. in what seems to be a nostalgic call for. an era that Iranians remember pre the.

revolution. and we're seeing young men and women. crowds forming in in different parts of. the capital in Tehran and other cities. Fists in the air chanting, freedom, freedom, oadi. So it sounds like this is really the.

culmination of a deep disconnects. between the Iranian people and its. leadership which at least as you said. initially seemed sympathetic to the. movement and its concerns but clearly we. know that the situation has turned very. bloody and very hostile and violent and. I wonder when did that switch happen and. what have we seen in terms of the. violence that's gone on on the ground? The change of rhetoric from the. government started when the supreme. leader Ayat delivered a public speech.

[music]. >> labeling protesters as rioters and. saying they were the agents of the. United States and Israel. and they were [music] destabilizing the. country, working for Iran's enemies.

[music]. Iran's [music] chief judiciary also said. that there would be no mercy for anyone. arrested and [music] justified the. crackdowns by pointing out to widespread. vandalism and burning of public. properties and cars and even [music]. attacks on mosques and police stations. that they had seen.

now now. >> And then on Thursday when the crowds. swelled in the streets. [music]. >> and the cries for freedom grew louder, please shut up. >> The government unplugged the internet. and plunged the country into total. darkness.

They blocked incoming and outgoing. international calls, making it really. difficult for anyone outside to get. visibility about what was really going. on. Cell phone reception inside the. country has also been disrupted in what. seems to be an effort to try to stop. people from organizing and mobilizing. protests. By Sunday, a picture was emerging that a. massacre was unfolding in Iran. I've. been able to communicate to protesters,

to doctors, nurses, and people who have been on the ground. through satellite internet connection. that they may be able to find. Everyone. that I spoke to who's been out to. protest has seen someone get shot and. killed in front of him. M. >> two people told me that they saw snipers. in two different parts of the city. shooting down at the crowds. A friend. who was in central Tehran described a.

horrific scene of security forces. gunning down young people, a young crowd. of men and women with machine guns and. people falling on top of each other. Nurses and doctors that I've been able. to connect with described absolutely. horrific scenes unfolding at hospitals. People shot at close range in the head, in the torso, from the back. >> One video that went viral was of a.

Iranian wildlife photographer. His face is bloody. Blood dripping from. his face. And he's addressing the camera. saying. >> to the security forces, "How can you. fire your own countrymen? Killing a. person is like a game for them. I swear. to God, we're also citizens of this. country. We have pain.".

Videos we're seeing from Terron's morg. show bodies in bags piled in the parking. lot and on the ground. >> and families wailing and screaming as. they're going through them trying to. identify [music] their loved ones. [crying]. This is a level of violence [music] and. cruelty that I haven't seen in the 30.

years that I've been covering Iran. >> What you are describing, Fernas, is just. horrific and inconceivable I think to a. lot of people. Just these scenes of. absolute carnage all over Iran. And I. wonder whether the brutality of this. response is working for the regime in. terms of actually quelling the protests.

or whether it perhaps is having an. opposite effect on people and what. they're willing to do in the face of all. of this opposition. The situation is very fluid. >> [music]. >> The protests have attracted. international attention, pressure on the. Iranian government, and of course the. unpredictable variable of whether the. United States is going to take military. action against Iran.

>> [music]. >> We'll be right back. Fernas, at the beginning of this. conversation, we talked about internal. forces on Iran and external forces on. Iran. So, I want to go external now. Can. you talk about what has happened outside. of Iran that has led to this moment and.

had such an impact? Remember that Iran. has had a really tough year. In June, Iran had a intense 12-day war with. Israel when Israel launched surprise. attacks on Iran's military structure and. took out its military command chain and. nuclear scientists. >> Iran was able to strike Israel with a. barrage of ballistic missiles. But that. war exposed Iran's weakness in terms of.

being able to defend itself. And the war. of course culminated with the United. States getting involved and bombing and. severely damaging Iran's nuclear. facilities. >> Another dynamic at play here is that. Iran's regional standing has changed. its militant allies around the region. that it helps arm and fund like. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. have been decimated and weakened by. Israel. Iran had counted on these.

groups, particularly Hezbollah and and. Syria, the base that it had in Syria, as. a way to exert pressure and as sort of a. forward defense that it would say, well, if you attack me, I can also fire and. create problems across the region. In. that sense, Iran has really been. weakened. How should we be accounting. for all of that? The embarrassment, the. evident vulnerability. Is that on the. minds of these protesters that we're. seeing out on the streets now? >> Of course, I think that all of this.

feeds into the momentum where it. emboldens people taking to the streets. thinking maybe this is the moment. We've. talked about how one big open question. right now is how the United States is. going to respond. And President Trump. has said on multiple occasions he's. willing to take action in defense of the. protesters. On Tuesday even he put a. post on Truth Social urging people to. continue protesting. He said that uh. they will pay a big price referring to.

the regime. So, what do we know about. how [clears throat]. the regime is thinking about the. president and his threats? >> Iran's leadership is taking the threats. and rhetoric coming from President Trump. very seriously. They of course have the. experience of the US bombing the nuclear. facilities, but also what happened in. Venezuela, right, really rattled them. because there was this sense that.

President Trump is not bluffing and. he'll actually carry out what he says. From my conversations with a few. government officials, we know that the. Iran's National Security Council. conducted an emergency meeting to talk. about how they would prepare. I know. that Iran's armed forces have been put. on the highest alert possible. anticipating an attack and the. government has said that if the US. attacks us, we are going to retaliate.

forcefully against American targets and. ships and military bases in the region. and we will also attack Israel. So it. seems like they're preparing for war. There's also some broader context that. we should not neglect here about the. relationship between President Trump and. Iran, which has for years been extremely. antagonistic. During the first Trump. administration, President Trump killed. Iran's top general that led to an. Iranian assassination plot against.

President Trump. But I've also been. having a lot of conversations more. recently with colleagues in the newsroom. who cover the administration about how, if at all, any of that that I've just. described plays into Trump's decision-m. And they've told me a range of answers. that this could be about regime change. right now. It could also be about oil, but it is also about power and how Trump. exerts it. So I wonder what you make of. all of this Fern just trying to put.

together all of this context history and. the latest comments we've seen from the. president. What is your assessment about. sort of why the United States is. considering some of this action? Well, we don't know for sure what President. Trump's motivations are. We don't even. know if he's going to go ahead and. topple the Iranian regime. He has said. previously that the US does not want to. engage in nation building and regime. change anymore. But it's also possible that President. Trump sees some benefits to eliminating.

the Iranian government's rule because it. would end nearly five decades of. animosity between Iran and the United. States. It would also remove a. government that has been hostile to not. just the United States, but also to. Israel. There's also a slight chance. that this could help realign the Middle. East in ways that could benefit and. secure American interests. And of. course, Iran is an oil rich country, so. there's also the energy factor there,

too. But we also know from history, including recent history, that military. interventions in the Middle East carries. enormous risks. I was a war. correspondent in the Middle East. I. covered the Afghanistan war in its. aftermath, Iraq, Syria, and we've seen. that the US can win the military war. because of its military might, but it. can't win the long war or the long.

peace. That stability and a smooth. transition have been elusive in other. places where the US intervened, namely. Iraq. The United States own history with. Iran is also checkered. In 1953, the. United States intervened and toppled a. democratically elected government of. Prime Minister Mosad and reinstalled the. sha through a CIA coup. And many. Iranians will tell you that that killed.

the path that the country was on toward. becoming a democracy or a republic. And. within a few decades it exploded in an. Islamic revolution. And you know usually. regimes and governments are toppled. either by defections and coups inside or. by military interventions. We haven't. seen any major defections among the. military ranks of Iran's armed forces.

We haven't seen defections among the. political class. So right now there's no. sign that something's going to happen. from within. And for all the reasons. that we have discussed, a military. intervention to topple the government. could actually bring about years of. instability. >> What might that instability look like. for Nause? >> Well, I think for one thing, the fight. for what Iran's future might be, what. kind of a various opposition groups that. are very divided and don't have a.

unified vision even currently. So, how. would that play out? There are ethnic. minorities in Iran that have aspirations. for separatism, for federalism. There. are also forces in the region, including. the Islamic State terrorists, including. militant Islamic forces that might, like. they did in Iraq, like they did in. Syria, might see a power vacuum in Iran. and pour into the country and use that. as a power base. M.

>> and also we have to also remember that. the Iranian government does have a. support base of about at least like 10%. It does have armed revolutionary guards. and paramilitary force that are loyal to. it. So you could see also a scenario. where they would form armed insurgencies. and fight whatever is the next. government. >> These are scenarios that are not. fantasies. And it's important to keep a. clearey and sober view of what the. options are and what the outcomes may.

be. >> Fernaz, you have seen and covered. decades worth of uprisings in Iran. And. I wonder what you think it would do to. the Iranian psyche and to the people who. are in the streets right now at such. great personal risk if ultimately. nothing really changes in Iran and the. status quo remains. The current uprising. in Iran has created a sliver of light. and hope for Iranians inside and for the. diaspora watching what's unfolding in.

their country. And I think for people to. feel they're so close to change and to. freedom and for it to be crushed would. be devastating, would be heartbreaking. But I don't think it would be the end of. the aspirations of the Iranian people. [music]. I think no matter how much force the. government uses.

and the level of crackdowns, it can crush protests periodically, but it can't kill the dream as it hasn't. been able to in previous protests. The. [music] protests have built upon each. other over the years. And what I hear. this time and what [music] I see is that. the Iranian people have lost their fear. >> Fernaz, [music] thank you so much.

>> Thank you for having me. We'll be right [music] back. Here's. what else you need to know today. [music] On Tuesday, six federal. prosecutors in Minnesota resigned in. protest over the Justice Department's.

push to investigate the widow of Renee. Good, [music] the protester killed by an. ICE agent last week. At least one of the. prosecutors, Joseph Thompson, [music]. reportedly also objected to the. department's refusal to investigate the. shooter. Johnson and another prosecutor [music]. were leading the sprawling fraud. investigation that has royal the state. in recent weeks. [music]. And. Bill and Hillary Clinton are refusing to. testify [music] in the congressional.

investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, escalating a month-slong battle with the. Republican representative James Comr. [music] of Kentucky, who chairs the. oversight committee and who said he. would hold the couple in contempt. The. strategy to push the Clintons to testify. [music] reflects Comr's overall. approach. Deflect focus from President. [music] Trump by redirecting it to. prominent Democrats who also associated. with the convicted sex offender and his. longtime [music] companion Gileain. Maxwell.

[music]. Today's episode was produced by Mooch. Sadi, Michelle Banja, and Jessica. [music] Chung with help from Ricky. Netski. It was edited by Michael Benwis. and Patricia Willins, [music] contains. music by Diane Wong, Marian Lozano, and. Pat McCusker, and was engineered by. Alyssa Moxley. [music].

[music]. That's it for [music] the Daily. I'm. Rachel Abrams. See you tomorrow.