Inside Putin’s Plan to Cripple Ukraine This Winter

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie. [music] Kitroeff. This is The Daily. >> [music]. >> The last week in Ukraine has been one of. the most [music] dire stretches the. country's lived through in more than 4. years of war. After making an energy deal with. Vladimir [music] Putin, President Trump. waived new sanctions on Russia and is. now openly feuding with Ukraine's. [music] leader.

Russia is taking advantage of the moment. by relentlessly striking Kyiv, killing. civilians, and cutting [music] off power. for more than a million people. Today, my colleague, Constant [music]. Méheut, on how the US-Ukraine. relationship took a turn for the worse. and why Putin is now so confident. [music] that Russia can bomb Ukraine. into submission this winter. >> [music]. >> It's Monday, October 19th.

Constant, thank you for being here. It's. wonderful to have you. >> Just thank you for having me. >> So, last week on the show, we talked. about this deal that was struck between. President Trump and President Vladimir. Putin of Russia for the US to buy. billions of dollars in diesel from. Russia. And we started to think about. how that deal might affect the war in. Ukraine. It seems as though we have. started to see impacts almost.

immediately in the form of, on the one. hand, the rift between President Trump. and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine. widening in public and Russia pounding. Ukraine more and more aggressively. You're on the ground in Ukraine. So, can. you just orient us? >> Well, it's probably been one of the. worst weeks in the Ukraine-US. relationships since the war began more.

than four years ago. Since Trump. announced that diesel deal, the public. exchange between him and Zelenskyy has. really turned hot. >> [music]. >> Zelenskyy could have settled this war. many times, many, many times. >> Trump has come out publicly and blamed. Zelenskyy for the current state of the. war. >> And we told him, "Do whatever you want, but don't hit the diesel fuel.". >> He blamed him for the diesel crisis. >> What does he do? He goes and hits the. diesel fuel.

>> And he said that Ukrainians should vote. him out of office. >> And I think it's time for Ukraine to get. a new president. >> Zelenskyy [music] at first tried to. maintain some semblance of calm. >> It's a big aggressor, Russia. Only unity can stop them. And of course, United States [music]. and Europe can do it, of course. I'm. sure. I'm sure I I said to president, [music] "We can do it very quickly.". >> But then, soon enough, he said that.

Trump actually prefers to strike. business deals with Moscow, that he has. an affinity for autocrats, and that he. felt betrayed. >> Do you feel betrayed by what has been. happening? >> [music]. >> Really, yes. Really, between us. >> So, pretty strong words. And those. strong words come right at the time when. Russia is actually expanding its bombing.

campaign on Ukraine, sending salvos of. missiles and drones every other night, and using that moment to just pressure. Ukraine even more into submission. >> And as far as I understand it, these. have been some of the most severe. bombing campaigns in the entire war. >> Right. Russia is sending dozens of. missiles, hundreds of drones in a single. attack overnight. They're also targeting. Ukraine during the day with plenty of.

drones. And in terms of civilian deaths, just in the first week of October, there. were more than 100 civilians killed in. Ukraine. This is a level of civilian. casualties that is among the highest. that we've seen since the very first. month of the war. >> So with all this escalation, it sounds. like really just in the past week we are. seeing this war hitting Ukrainian cities. and civilians on a scale that we haven't.

seen in a long time. >> Yeah, well, for years you didn't really. feel the war that much in cities away. from the front. Take Kyiv where I live. I arrived there about 3 years ago. And sure, there were occasional attacks, but it was nothing like what we're. seeing today. And the real problems were. hundreds of miles away at the front. where Ukrainian forces were losing. ground to the Russians slowly but. steadily.

And now it's almost the complete. opposite. Things are actually going. pretty well for Ukraine at the front. because they've managed to stop the. Russian advances. In some cases, the. Ukrainian forces are even launching. successful counterattacks. But further. back, behind the front, in cities like. Kyiv, Odessa, things have become way. more dangerous because of those Russian. bombardments. >> Talk to me about that shift. When did. this reversal that you're describing. actually begin to take shape?

>> It really began this past summer. So, what you have to understand, Natalie, is. that Russia has two main ways of. attacking Ukraine. With ballistic. missiles and with drones. And Ukraine. began having a real problem in defending. against both the missiles and the. drones. The missiles, it has essentially only. one reliable way of defending against. them. Those are the US-made Patriot air.

defense systems. that are supplied by the US, by Western. allies, but they're really in short. supply at the moment because they're. also needed elsewhere, especially. because of the war in Iran. And so. Ukraine was pushed to the back of the. queue. >> Right. And these Patriot interceptors, this is like the only way to defend. against a missile attack like this for. Ukraine. So suddenly the entire country. becomes very vulnerable. >> Correct. And you can see it here from.

the ground by just hearing a lot more. explosions at night, which is a sign. that they're running short of. interceptors. That means huge jump in. civilian death far from the front in. cities including Kyiv and others that. are hundreds of miles from the front. This is something we didn't see before. You also have attacks on warehouses, on. companies, on ports, on ships that are. destroying the Ukrainian economy and. that are way more efficient at at doing.

so than in the past. >> Do you have a sense of how many of those. ballistic missiles are actually getting. through? >> Yeah, at the beginning of the year. Ukraine was intercepting from 30 to 40%. of the ballistic missiles and that gave. you a sense of safety. Not great, but. safer than nothing. Now Ukraine is. intercepting about 10% at best and some. nights they're not even intercepting any. of them. >> Wow. >> On top of this, you have the issue of.

the drones. So Ukraine used to be really. good at shooting down the traditional. drones that Russia was sending. They. would use a range of different weapons, machine guns, helicopters, short-range. rockets. But then, Russia over the summer. introduced a new class of drones, which. are called the jet-powered drones. Now, just to explain what this is about. >> Yes, please do. What is a jet-powered.

drone? >> So, up until now, Russia was using. drones that were propeller-driven, you. know, the same way that. you'd have like some sort of an old. plane that's powered by propellers. Those new drones, they have jet engines, right? Like the ones that you'll find on. a plane today. >> So, just so I'm clear, you literally mean. that the drones had like propellers that.

moved like the way you would see on an. old-timey airplane, and that the new. ones have jet engines. >> Exactly. Some experts essentially say that those. jet-powered drones are like small cruise. missiles, right? Like they can fly at. about 370 mph, and that is roughly three. times faster than the older drones. >> Wow. >> Now, the issue for Ukraine is that the. new jet-powered drones are just faster. and incredibly hard to shoot down. And so, Ukraine today is trying to come.

up with a new type of interceptor drone, AI-guided, also jet-powered, but these. things take a long time to develop, and. that technology isn't ready yet. >> Basically, you're describing a situation. in which Ukraine has very little ability. to defend against either missiles or. drones and is left extremely vulnerable. I assume you can feel that on the ground. just being there, right?

>> Yes, and it feels terrifying. for residents of Kyiv like me, like my. New York Times colleagues here as well, that means hearing air raid alerts going. off pretty much all the time, sometimes. [music] 10 hours, 15 hours a day, which. over time also takes a toll on you. You're on edge. You're wondering whether. you should run to a shelter every time. that there's an air raid alert. And for. some people, whether you're also just. going to be the next person killed in.

one of these attacks. >> Mhm. >> If you're on the street of Kyiv during. the day, you might actually hear the. jet-powered drones flying over you. They. sound like a bit like a plane, but you. cannot see them. >> Wow. >> And so you're looking at the sky trying. to understand where it is, which to be. honest is probably not very useful. because they fly so fast that if they're. coming towards you, you won't really. have any time to realize it. >> Mhm. >> And more and more people are spending. their nights in shelters, in subway.

stations to avoid being struck by those. missiles. And when they emerge from. those shelters in those subway stations. early in the morning, what they see is. just scenes of devastation, really. Plumes of smoke rising into the sky as. buildings and factories have been. struck. They see on their telephones. pictures of dead bodies in courtyards. It's really a terrifying new reality in. Kyiv and in other cities. >> Yeah, it sounds completely horrifying.

And for the Russians, what do we know. about how they're thinking about the. long-term strategy behind all of this. bombing that's been targeting civilian. infrastructure? >> Well, we got more insights into this a. couple of weeks ago when Ukraine got its. hands on a Russian war plan, which it. shared to its European partners. And we. obtained a copy of this plan. >> Mhm. >> And the plan lays out very clearly how.

Russia wants to take this to the next. level during the winter. Russia wants to. make life miserable for the civilians. They want to strike thermal power. plants, electricity substations, hydroelectric plants, boiler houses, you. name it. They want to use all kinds of. weapons that they have in their arsenal. to do that. The missiles, especially the. ballistic missiles that Ukraine cannot. intercept, the jet-powered drones, and. some guided bombs that have had. devastating effects on cities.

>> And do they say, the Russians in these. plans, what the goal of that would be? Are they explicit about it? >> They do. They highlight three major. cities in Ukraine, Kyiv, Kharkiv in the. east, and Odessa in the south, that are. homes to millions of people all. together. And they want to cut off. electricity supplies for those cities by. 90%. >> Woah. >> Reduce heating supplies by up to 90%, and severely disrupt the water.

distribution and sewage system in those. cities. And remember that this comes at. a time when the harsh Ukrainian winter. is about to begin. So, if they're successful, it could. create a terrible humanitarian crisis. >> Essentially, bombing Ukraine into a position of. potentially needing to surrender, you're. saying. >> Exactly. Forcing people to ask their own. government. to end the war now.

And Moscow sees a real opportunity now, because as all of this campaign is. happening, they see the deterioration of. the Trump-Zelensky relation, which. Ukraine knows. makes them really vulnerable at the. moment. >> [music]. [music]. >> We'll be right back.

>> Okay, Kostiantyn, explain how Ukraine. sees this worsening relationship with. the US and with President Trump as. creating new vulnerabilities right now. >> Well, there are a couple of. vulnerabilities related to the US that. Ukraine is really worried about at the. moment. The first one is satellite. internet access from Starlink, which is. this network controlled by SpaceX, created by Elon Musk. Now, we all know.

Starlink as a regular internet provider. for millions of people across the world, but there's also a version that is used. by militaries, which is called. Starshield, and Ukraine has access to it. through a contract with the Pentagon. And Ukraine uses Starshield for all. kinds of military operations across the. front. We're talking about terminals. that are mounted on cars for soldiers. driving near the front, that are mounted.

on ground drones for logistical. missions, or on flying drones whenever. Ukraine is using them to attack an enemy. position. So, if you have connectivity dropping or. simply getting disrupted, it really impacts operations across the. entire front line. >> And do we have any indication that the. US deliberately pulled access to. Starshield? >> Well, the Ukrainian government clearly.

pointed the finger at SpaceX, which is. Elon Musk's company, saying that it. imposed restrictions on the speed at. which those terminals could be used. But. then Elon Musk on X said that Starshield. is not under SpaceX control, but is. under the US government's control and. that if anyone wanted to impose those. restrictions, it would be the US. government and specifically the.

president of the United States. >> And then of course the message came from. government. I didn't. >> And then on Sunday President Zelenskyy. went on NBC and said that the. restrictions imposed on Starshield were. a message being sent by the US. government. >> It's an opinion of our generals, of our. government, and of course my also. opinion the same that it was the message. from American government government to. limit this speed and technically. SpaceX did it.

>> So he made it very clear that in his. view the US government were behind the. throttling of Starshield. >> And what has the White House said? >> Well, President Trump came out and. denied that the White House was behind. the throttling of Starshield and he said. that he didn't think it was Elon Musk. either. So it remains unclear who is. really responsible for this. But then beyond just Starshield, there's. another area that has Ukraine really.

concerned, which is issues that they've. been experiencing with early warnings. about ballistic missile attacks. >> Mhm. >> Those early warnings, they come. primarily from intelligence shared by. the United States. That's because the US. is the only country that has enough. satellites to truly see things in real. time. If the intelligence coming from those. satellite is not shared with the. Ukrainians, that means that the.

Ukrainians cannot warn their population. about an incoming ballistic or cruise. missile. And that poses a huge issue. also for their air defense capabilities. because it means they no longer have. enough time to prepare their. interceptors to shoot down the incoming. missiles. >> And Ukraine is saying they are not. receiving that kind of information, which they were receiving before. >> Correct. For any kind of ballistic.

missile attack, Ukraine normally would. receive intelligence from the US that. it's coming. But on two specific. occasions, Ukraine said they did not. receive intelligence about incoming. ballistic missiles. Now, it could also be a technical issue. that has happened in the past, but. again, President Zelensky has been clear. that he believes intelligence sharing. was actually deliberately curtailed for. a brief period.

>> And what does the administration say. about that? >> Well, the Trump administration. completely denies this and says that the. intelligence was still flowing to. Ukraine. Now, from the perspective of people in. Kyiv, people like me living in the city, it was obviously very unusual what. happened. You know, usually, Natalie, when you hear an air raid alert even for. a ballistic missile, you know that you. have 2-3 minutes ahead of you, which you. can use to go to a shelter if it's.

nearby or in my case, I'd go to my. bathroom, to a corridor. But this time, I hear the air raid alert and I barely. have time to process it that I'm already. hearing the explosion, the impact of the. ballistic missile. So, that's. >> So scary. >> Really scary, but also really unusual. and I immediately wondered, "Oh, what's happening now?". >> And what is the impact of these two. things, kind of, you know, at a high. level of Star Shield access being shaky.

and of intelligence sharing, they say, lapsing? >> Well, first of all, I think we need to. make something clear, which is that the. lapses in intelligence sharing, or at. least this is how the Ukrainians. describe it, have happened only a couple. of times. But the issues with Starlink, they seem to be dragging on. Ukrainian. officials, including Zelenskyy on. Sunday, were reporting some disruptions.

to the drones that are using Starlink at. the front. Clearly, the longer these. disruptions continue, the harder it will. be for the Ukrainian military. You know, you could have entire military. operations being called off, and this. will also endanger cities like Kyiv, which will be even more defenseless. against Russian drones. And you know, the one thing that's been. interesting to hear from Ukrainian. officials is that they say that.

disruptions lasting several days to the. Starlink system. just cannot be simply explained by. technical issues. >> It sounds like they see this as an. intentional act, an intentional. decision. >> And also a little bit of a stab in the. back, to be honest. Ukraine sees this as. a betrayal from the Trump administration. because. they've essentially. agreed to the one demand that President. Trump was making, which was that Ukraine.

should stop its strikes on the oil. refineries. They stopped the strikes for. 3 days and said, "We're happy to do that, but we need. also Russia to stop the strikes on our. own energy infrastructure.". Russia didn't stop. The White House did. not react to Russia not doing anything. And so Ukraine is left thinking, "Well, what have we got in this? You know, we're basically losing our main tool, our main lever in this fight, which is.

striking the oil refineries, if we're. being asked to stop without anything in. return. We've got to just resume the strikes. That's our only lever, which is what. they did starting from Thursday. >> It feels like from everything you've. said, Constant, Ukraine is really backed. into a corner, and there is a lot in. Russia's favor at this point. Ukraine. has a very limited ability to defend. itself. The relationship with Trump is.

really on the rocks. And all of that can only be helpful to. the Kremlin's strategy of trying to bomb. this country, as you said, into. submission. So, is Russia right to be confident that its. strategy could work this winter? >> It is right that its strategy could work. way more effectively than in the past. winters for a number of reasons. They.

have more sophisticated weapons. The. Ukrainians have a serious shortage of. early fences. And also, the entire power grid has been. weakened by 4 years of war. >> Mhm. >> Which means that a strike today on a. power plant will cause more damage than. a strike on a power plant 2 years ago, simply because you start from a. different basis. You know, the winter is coming. This is.

a cold country. You have to imagine. people living in apartments where it's. freezing cold because the radiators do. not work. Where they don't have running. water because the water distribution. system has been knocked out. And where they maybe do not have a. shelter nearby to protect themselves. from incoming missiles, which anyway, they won't know about because there. might not be early warnings.

On top of this, you have strikes that. are also destroying the economy of. Ukraine. They are destroying steel. plants which provides jobs to tens of. thousands of people. They are targeting. the exports routes of Ukraine by. blockading the ports in the southern. Odessa region. >> Mhm. >> And all of this means also less money. for the Ukrainian budget, which means. less money for the Ukrainian war effort.

And what do you do if you cannot buy. enough weapons, if you cannot pay the. salaries of your soldier? So, this is sort of a slow burn effort. to wear down the entire country. >> Korsun, just stepping back. If the story. of this war has been Ukraine defying the. odds, being overpowered, and then. innovating time and time again to hold. Russia back. It really feels as though. we're at a moment now in which if. Russia's plan succeeds,

if Russia is able to leave Ukrainian. cities 90%. without power. in a country that experiences months and. months of brutally cold temperatures, it's honestly difficult to see how even. Ukraine can innovate its way out of. this. >> This is a people that will carry on. despite what happens. This is a place. where people have been through four.

winters of war. They know how to stock. up on water, they know how to stock up. and on gas heaters. They also know how. to develop innovative interceptors to. shoot down new types of weapons, missiles, drones. This is not a country. that will. capitulate because of this bombing. campaign. Yet, this is the only card that Russia. has to play and wants to play. And while.

it may not force Ukraine into full. capitulation, when the time comes for. negotiations to properly resume, if this strategy of Russia is. successful, Ukraine will be at a weaker. position and will be forced into. concessions. that it wouldn't want to do today. And even as Ukraine pushes through the.

winter, if it. continues into next year without full. Western military and financial support, it will emerge. weaker economically, militarily. >> [music]. >> This doesn't mean that this is the end. of Ukraine. We're not looking right now. at the end of the war, but we're looking at a kind of weakening. that is potentially irreversible. And that leaves Ukraine with very few.

options. >> [music]. >> Konstantin, thank you so much for your time. >> [music]. >> We really appreciate it. >> Thank you, Natalie. >> [music]. >> We'll be right back.

Here's what else you need to know today. Over the weekend, anti-government. protests in France devolved into some of. of worst riots the country's seen in. decades. Demonstrators caused widespread damage. to national symbols and buildings across.

the country, including a government. tourist building in Lyon and a. 19th-century city hall in Limoges that. was largely destroyed by a fire. 2,400 people were arrested and nearly a. thousand police officers were injured. >> [music]. >> By Sunday, when the violence and. protests had largely subsided, French. [music] President Emmanuel Macron. appealed for, quote, order and calm. He.

said he would seek to lower gas prices, [music] a key complaint from some. protesters, but didn't offer any. concrete concessions. And [music] President Trump's new press. secretary, Katie Zakhary, was forced out. of her role on Friday after just five. days on [music] the job. Zakhary got off. to a rough start with her first and only. press briefing last [music] week, in. which she read largely off a script, and. then she faced an onslaught of headlines.

about whether she misrepresented herself. as a lawyer, even though she'd never. passed the bar [music] exam. Trump said that he told Zakhary to. reconsider her job because she was being. treated [music] badly by the media, and. also said that she might continue to. work for him in, [music] quote, some. form, but maybe a more pleasant form. Today's [music] episode was produced by. Shannon Lynn, Ricky Niyazetsky, Rochelle. Banja, and Eric Krupke. [music].

It was edited by Chris Hackel with help. from MJ Davis Lynn and Annie Minough. [music]. Contains music by Dan Powell and Rowan. Nemirow, and was engineered by Chris. Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. [music]. >> That's it for the [music] daily. I'm. Natalie Kitroeff. See you tomorrow.