In Iowa, Two Friends Debate DeSantis vs. Trump

from The New York Times I'm Michael. babbaro this is the. daily you know um as as governor of the. Sunshine State uh normally in January uh. I'm down in in Florida all the. midwesterners storming down to escape. the cold uh you go to places on Monday. when Iowa holds the first contest in the. Republican Presidential nominating. process nobody will have more on.

look we're we're getting down to the. stretch then Florida Governor Ron de. santz I don't like what the future looks. like with another four years of trump I. would like somebody to step up and make. that a challenge cuz it's really. disappointing who has staked his. candidacy I really like Rhonda s us much. better on a victory there that now seems. increasingly remote I came because I. love Trump everybody that I know is. going for Trump did you decide pretty. early on in the process that you wanted.

to support Trump for 24 no question. there's no question I mean how did both. of you. think today my colleagues Shane. goldmacher Rob zipco and Carlos PR on. what desantis's challenge has looked. like on the ground in. [Music]. Iowa it's Friday January. 12th.

Shane the question from the beginning of. the Republican presidential race was is. there anyone who can beat Donald Trump. and as we sit here today just a few days. before the Iowa caucus is the first. Republican vote Trump is more than 30. points ahead of his nearest rival which. is about as daunting and Advantage as. I've ever seen and I think the question. now is why exactly that has been the.

case and what have Trump's Rivals been. trying to do in these final weeks and. days to try to defy the laws of. political gravity and perhaps pull off. some kind of a Longshot upset in Iowa. well you're right it is daunting and. it's so daunting that a number of his. former Rivals have quit including Chris. Christie who left just this week right. and that's left really two people who. are ostensibly still competing with. Donald Trump and that's Nikki Haley and.

it's Ronda santis and in a lot of ways. the race has become a race for second. place between the two of them and in. that race Nikki Haley's been gaining. momentum and she's been raising money. and while she's hoping to top Des santis. here she's been more focused on the next. States on New Hampshire where she pulls. more strongly and then her home state of. South Carolina but for Ronda santis it's. really Iowa he has set himself apart by. saying this is a state he will win and. he's in a tough spot in a maker break.

State just days before the caucuses he's. found himself much closer to Nikki Haley. than to Donald Trump right and we've. talked about Dan santis with you a lot. and about the fact that his campaign had. a series of major MPS miscalculations. and has had to really scale back its. Ambitions and focus them on Iowa not by. choice but a little bit by. necessity because his thinking is if we. can do well in Iowa maybe just maybe he.

can kind of resurrect this candidacy and. make this a two candidate race with. Trump yeah he has gone all in on Iowa. he's visited every single county in the. state the only one of the top candidates. to do so he is got the backing of the. state's popular Republican Governor he's. won the backing of one of the most. important Evangelical networks in the. state and his super pack has just been. knocking on door after door more than. 800 th000 doors in the state so far wow.

there's mailers there's tv ads it's hand. toand combat to find the very small. number of people who are going to show. up on a really cold night in Iowa and. the way the as santis team sees it is. look they're campaigning the Iowa way. this is how some of those long shots. surged at the last minute people like. Rick Santorum who were given little. chance but you know had pounded the. pavement in all 99 counties he won right. Rick s of course went on to lose the. nomination and really didn't gain a ton. of traction after Iowa but for the.

disantis campaign this is the model put. in the maximum effort here and if it. doesn't really work here it's really. hard to see how it's going to work for. him anywhere else right long shots can. and sometimes do win in Iowa but given. this daunting math of Trump's lead in. the polls that we've just talked about. I'm curious as you're describing this. elaborate doortodoor. hand-to-hand combat by the DeSantis. campaign what kind of voter he's trying. to win over at this point who exactly is.

the ideal Target of this uphill disantis. effort in Iowa I think it's really. important to answer that to go back to. the assumptions that the disantis. campaign made at the very beginning of. the. race which is that voters in a. Republican primary fall into three basic. buckets the first bucket is the Die Hard. Trump supporters the people who are. going to be with Trump from the. beginning to the end and there's really. nothing you can do to compete for them.

the second bucket is the sort of soft. Trump supporters people who like Donald. Trump as president people who were open. to supporting him again but also were. open to an alternative maybe somebody. without as much baggage maybe somebody. who was younger and then the third. bucket is the never trumpers the people. in the Republican Party who are. absolutely ready to move on and we're. not going to support Trump no matter. what and so their theory of the case was. basically that that second bucket the. soft Trump bucket that that was the. biggest of them all and there were even.

more people there than folks were. presuming so at the heart of desantis's. vision and a place like Iowa you're. saying is the belief that perhaps there. are actually a lot of people who are. soft Trump supporters and therefore if. you're campaigning and you meet somebody. who says I'm a trump supporter they. actually might be available to disantis. that is one of the essential questions. of the entire Republican primary just. how many of those Trump supporters are.

actually persuadable in. 2024 going be roll yeah and for the. disantis campaign it's the existential. question and I think the best way to. understand how the disantis campaign has. approach this that's Lance yep that's. Lance right there is to meet a former. Trump supporter who they actually won. over are you the Lance how's it going. good his name is Lance lowbridge good to. meet you good to meet you too good and. he's become an Ardent disantis supporter.

out in Eastern Iowa you mind giving us. like a quick tour of the farm before we. sit down and talk where two of our. producers for the daily Rob zipco and. Carlos prto went to meet him last week. yeah let's see let's go this way okay so. tell us about Lance well he's a farmer. who grows. corn and he raises cattle I know you. mentioned you're in the middle of cing. season so we just had two this morning. I'll and he's been busy with the new. Cales being born you'll see them here in.

a second they're yeah let me jump over. the fence real quick actually Michael. the very first calf born in 2024 has a. very special name the first one born. this morning we named him DeSantis. 24 it's DeSantis 24 like I said this is. a disantis success story and this cow is. living on his farm of more than 1500. acres does it ever get too cold for the. cattle I've never had a cowle freeze to. death I've Come Close few times.

and for many years that's really just. how he thought of himself as a farmer. not as somebody who was particularly. politically engaged I I really haven't. always been into politics uh you know in. fact I kind of despised him for most of. my life but about a decade ago that. changed when he started working with. what's really an important organization. in Iowa the Iowa Corn Growers. Association and it's a group that. lobbies politicians on behalf of corn. Farmers across the state and I was asked.

to participate in a meeting there and. was late to that meeting and when I got. there I found out they voted me in as a. county. president so don't ever be late to a. meeting. right Lance says the politicians he was. dealing with they didn't actually. understand Farm policy and they didn't. understand really what life was like for. a farmer and that whole experience it. was a big wakeup call and as Lance is. experiencing this Awakening how does he. describe his.

politics well he describes himself as. pretty conservative as a Christian. pro-life and then when 2016 rolled. around as you listen to Trump and as he. confronted the other party and the other. GOP candidates as far as that go he was. intrigued by Donald Trump he wasn't. afraid to come right out and say it and. that I thought was something that we. needed we needed and he voted for him in. 2016 M so I was kind of excited about. and then when Trump actually got into. office he like a lot of what he had to. say on certain issues especially on.

trade we're going to make the best deal. with China China's going to buy our. agricultural products it's going to be. great it's to remember Trump had. promised he was going to renegotiate. trade deals with China that business was. going to get better for American. businesses as a farmer made us think. we've got a future ahead of us you know. I've got a daughter and a son that have. an opportunity now to potentially come. into this farming operation without. having to sweat and lose sleep every.

night on whether they're going to be. able to pay the next bill right and he. in fact did start to rip up a lot of. those trade agreements and. understandings and he imposed tariffs. and he made a whole number of changes to. Americans relationship with businesses. abroad B Lance say all those Trump. policies that sounded good they ended up. backfiring for. him as Lance tells it when these tariffs. are imposed it was very difficult for. equipment manufacturers to Source what.

they needed to build equipment it raises. the cost of the raw materials he needs. to make his farm work that made the. price of equipment go up things like. farm equipment and fertilizer when those. fertilizer tariffs got put into place it. becomes a higher cost to us and those. tariffs also set off a trade war with. China and China stopped buying a lot of. American Agricultural Goods. H and Lance's businesses are getting.

squeezed they're getting squeezed on. both sides his costs are going up and. he's not making as much money when he. sells his products Across America and. across the world we were really standing. on a edge of a cliff ready to fall over. and luckily we didn't but it was not an. easy time I don't ever want to go back. to live in like. [Music]. that in fact he had to take part in a. trump Administration program that.

amounted to a bailout for farmers who. all across the country were suffering. from the trade war that had been started. and so because of all of this he starts. to grow more and more disillusioned with. Donald Trump we've got this motivating. speaker Trump out there talking about. how this is going to get better how it's. going to be so much better you know but. in the background we got all these. things that are falling. [Music]. apart come election today though did you. vote for him yes.

yep and yet when we get to 2020 L stuck. with Trump in that election H why it's. because he didn't like the alternative I. wasn't a Biden fan I mean I did not see. anything good coming out of a Biden. Administration so what was the Worster. of the two evils you know you kind of. had to look at that um Trump still had. some good things going on for him um so. Lance feels like a kind of classic Trump.

voter liked Trump's tough stance on. trade wanted a non-establishment. anti-establishment figure in the white. house so voted for him in 2016 stuck. with him in 2020 despite some. disappointments because there wasn't. really a primary that year and he wasn't. going to vote for a Democrat obviously. now in 2024 there is a primary there are. alternatives to Trump so how is Lance. thinking about. 2024 so at the beginning of the 2024. cycle Lance sort of fits into that soft.

Trump supporter category maybe even. borderline opposed to Trump and he's. determined to figure out well who will. his Republican alternative be if I'm. going to pick somebody if I'm going to. go out and pick that prize bowl or that. prize cow and and sorry I don't mean to. to compare any of our candidates to to. cattle but if I'm going to go out and. pick a winner you know I want to look at. every attribute I want something that's. got the whole package you know and look.

he's an influential figure in the. farming community and so some of these. candidates are actually seeking him out. for meetings well I had an opportunity. to meet with almost all of them um I've. met with Vivic I've met with Doug I've. met with u Nikki Haley with and at some. point he eventually gets to meet Rona. santis so I was asked uh to meet with. the SST U he got out of the car we. exchanged pleasantries we sat down at a. table and I said well let's just not. beat around a bush where you at on.

agriculture and where you at on. biofuels I don't know that's how he. answered it I I'm I need to learn more I. don't understand the industry tell me. more how can I learn more and he was. impressed with the santis and and how he. seemed open to hearing his concerns. about his industry and his business. after we had that conversation that day. one of his policy makers had called me. and said hey I if you got time let's. talk about biofuels let's talk about.

agriculture so I thought wow here's a. candidate that had somebody call me and. ask more specific questions so in some. weeks after that first meeting Lance had. another opportunity to meet with dis. antis with a bunch of farmers from all. across the state there's must have been. 30 or 40 Farmers there and Governor dis. santis went around the room and. introduced himself to every single. person individually and had a. conversation with every single person.

individually so it was probably all of. 40 minutes be or or better before we. actually sat down and then had more of a. round T type meeting where guys could. ask questions on and talk about what's. important to them as far as agriculture. goes how how did you feel though at the. end of that conversation or I guess the. two conversations at those different. facilities well um I hadn't made up my. mind yet but. I got to tell you that I've never seen a.

candidate engage people like that. whether it was a a senator a. representative or presidential candidate. and it wasn't long after that that Lance. saw Ronda santis speaking on the. campaign Trail in the exact kind of way. he wanted based on what he'd heard from. Iowa Farmers H I think a lot of those. things that were talked about that day. he's incorporated into some of his. conversations and and rallies uh so. Lance's is really liking to santis but.

what really clinches it is something. that happens over the summer uh I was. hit he got into a pretty serious. motorcycle accident and it broke my leg. and had some pretty severe damage I. required some reconstructive. surgery I got 36 Staples eight screws a. wire and a plate in my ankle and foot uh. holding things together um I was laid up. and it's a Saturday morning and I get a. phone.

call and that phone call was a no caller. ID number and I thought it was the. highway patrol calling me. to you know ask questions about the. accident and it wasn't it was governor. des santis and Ronda santz actually. called him to check in he said Lance. yeah hey this is Ronda. santis and I'm thinking. what he says uh hey he says we heard you. had a accident we just we wanted to call.

and see if you're doing okay what's. going on you know you all right and and. so we had a a really nice conversation. and it really wasn't about the campaign. and he he he cared you know that's how I. felt that was very uplifting that day so. it was really cool um like I say you. know I have to say Shane this is a bit. surprising this is not the version of. disantis that we have come to understand. he is pretty widely seen as a little bit. cold. disconnected not somebody who easily.

connects with voters I mean Michael it's. striking in that there's this. conventional wisdom that's congealed. about Ronda santis is that he's weak on. the stump and that he's awkward and. wooden and for Lance he thinks that. portrayal of Ronda santis it's the. media's fault which is of course what. Ronda santis says too that they're not. showing the real Ronda santis that is. one thing that just absolutely. frustrates me when I turn on to on the. TV and and you get that from the media.

he's not that way and so Lance feels. like he knows the real Ronda santis and. he decides he's going to support Ronda. santis in the Iowa. caucuses which makes this as you had. hinted at earlier a real success story. for. desantis's hight touch strategy in Iowa. but it's the kind of success that would. seem incredibly hard to replicate. because you can't call every voter who. gets into an you can't call every voter. in Iowa period And if we're being honest.

Lance is not just anybody he's somebody. who is influential so he's not entirely. representative of Republican voters. right this is a success but it's a. really hard one to repeat and so what. Ronda santis needs is to convince Lance. and then have Lance start to convince. other people on his behalf and actually. that's exactly what Lance decides to do. he starts volunteering for the campaign. to help get out the vote for Ronda. santis. basically I feel like if I'm going to uh.

be all in on somebody then I need to be. all in on them okay and I feel strongly. that I've had a unique experience and I. need to be able to share that with. [Music]. others and what has that look like well. as he's recovering from his accident. he's sitting around his house and of. sitting around and so I was calling and. talking to people I was trying to keep. myself busy and and this was a good way. to. hey how you doing you got a couple.

minutes he says he's calling his friends. and his family and other Farmers I'm. just kind of curious where are you at in. this caucus and there's one person from. The Campaign that has sent me multiple. text like here's one will you call Darla. um basically anyone the campaign sends. his way and says any chance that you. could call Carmen hey could you call. this person Lance she's got questions. about the governor and she'd like to. hear him from somebody else okay and a. lot of these people are on the fence.

yeah like I I like him but I I really. kind of like that Nikki Haley you know. and those sort of soft Trump supporters. or maybe even opposed to Trump but. picking between two candidates looking. at Nikki Haley or Ronda santis and I. said okay yeah she's not a horrible. Choice by any means but here's why I. think the sandis is better is because. I've had the opportunity to have this. conversation and Lance says he shares. his experience with Ronda santis and the. particular things he likes about the. government calls would you guess that. you've made oh in the hundreds it's.

almost it sounds like the campaign is. kind of turning to you as their closer a. little. bit. okay maybe. [Music]. yeah so how did Lance say that those. calls have been going Lance has been. having what he feels like is Success. he's flipping some people to Ronda. santis people who are kind of open to a. trump alternative but he's also. realizing that some of the people he. thought were open to a trump alternative.

turn out to be really really hard to. flip and one of the people he's had a. really hard time flipping happens to be. one of his really good friends so we. asked Lance if we could sit down with. him and his friend and here how it's. been going as he's tried to pull him. into the Ronda santis camp and he said. yes we'll be right. back.

hey Shane hello how's it going good how. are you. good so Shane describe this conversation. between Lance and his friend who Lance. has been trying to convert from Trump to. Dan Santas so last Sunday how you doing. hi thanks for making the time Shane just. about a week out from the caucus Lance L. Bridge Lance Rob and I headed out to. Lance's Farm to meet his friend Nate. nting Nate nice to meet you guys a guy. by the name of Nate nting good okay I.

think we're ready to get started and we. all sit down and Nate begins to tell us. about himself I'm a farmer I should say. that Nate's voice does sound a little. bit like Lan's um got a few beef cows. and I also work for another farmer and. that's about it how big is your farm. it's I I only own 38 acres okay and how. did you guys come to know each other. become friends um way back in in school. in grade school grade school yeah like. since we were knigh to a grasshopper.

probably I suppose so probably since kid. Gardener first grade maybe big enough to. get in trouble. right and the two of them joke a lot I. mean you know he drives green equipment. I have ride equipment what kind of. motorcycles do you ride now. harleydavidson Honda oh that's another. thing he's got a Honda they joke a lot. about how they're opposites he likes. Trump I like the Sant so it's. like they also started to talk about. what they have in common but we both do. not agree with Biden yeah that's right.

yeah there's a lot of common ground they. both generally share the same worldview. and Nate like Lance I liked Trump just. because he's not a politician said that. he was drawn to Donald Trump basically. from the start back in 2016 I just think. he was more honest and uh more down to. earth you could understand him um more. redneck I so interesting you know he's a. more redneck cuz he's you know.

billionaire from Manhattan so how how do. you how do you connect how does the. billionaire from Manhattan feel like. more redneck to you well he's he he's a. worker you know um. so I I just I can connect with somebody. better that. way and just like Lance Nate said he was. hopeful not just about the idea of trump. but some of the specifics that he would. turn the the the US around it's cliche. but make it great again trade in.

particular there's a lot of uh people. going broke but yet we're bringing in. beef from other. countries what sense does that make so. they both bought into the original. promise of the Trump presidency but the. impact of those trade policies that's. where they really started to diverge I I. think it was like taking medicine um it. it doesn't taste good and at first it. might hurt you a little bit but the. after effects if he would have been able.

to keep going on I think it would have. made a hell of a difference I think you. know Trump had these great ideas and we. were all willing to as Nathan said take. the medicine and and hopefully then it. would get better um and and it and it. cost us and I mean depending on the size. of your operation it was extremely. painful so that there's a difference. there when you look at the scope of. things um equipment equipment got high. higher priced fertilizer got higher. priced and would that be the same for.

you Nate sorry I just you nodded you. said yes yeah and so your bottle mine in. a lot of ways was tougher at that time. oh definitely yeah definitely and that. was the medicine yeah and so but that. that wasn't Trump's fault that wasn't. you know that wasn't a politician's. fault that was just big business doing. what they want to it was. policy that was I mean not necessarily. Trump's fault but uh was under his watch. so the thing to know here is that.

Lance's Farm is actually a lot bigger. than Nate's and you hear Lance very. politely point out that fact it meant. that he took a bigger hit during the. Trump years than Nate did and so while. that was a huge factor in driving Lance. away from Trump Nate came away feeling. differently did you ever question your. support for Trump in that medicine era. when things were a little bit difficult. no I didn't um how come I just I. believed in him so your your trust in.

him never really faltered in years no it. didn't. no and so these two friends entered 2024. on very different sides of the. Republican primary equation Nate heading. into this 2024 cycle are you thinking of. going with Trump again I am just for the. for the. reason I liked what he did before and I. I like the way he talks i' like i' I'd. like to give him another shot yeah what.

do you so how does Lance navigate that I. mean what is he saying to his friend who. is pretty adamant that he is likely to. stick with Trump that's what I wanted to. know too the santis is behind in the. polls right you're going to need to pull. some people with your spech so what is. your like how are you going to get Nate. onto the D santis train probably with a. baseball bat I'm thinking I right Nate. is it going to take that or what's a. good the first hit. count all right short of a baseball that. what should but like how you know like.

what can what is there anything he could. say to you that would get you to vote. for him in the caucus is there anything. he could. say no no I don't think so like I said I. don't like politicians I I think danis. is a politician I don't think Trump. is that's that's that's my thoughts can. Trump still be not a politician he's. been president he's been the head of the. party he's got allies in all of the. places it's one of those things is kind. of remarkable how is he still The. Outsider just cuz he because he's that.

hated by the politicians you know they. keep saying that he he doesn't have a. chance he doesn't have a chance of. getting elected and everything but why. do they keep trying to impeach him why. do they keep trying to take his name off. the ballot if if if he wasn't that much. of a threat to. them why don't they just walk away from. it Lance I saw you shrug your shoulder. when he said he's that hated can you. just give us your reaction to What Nate.

said about Trump oh I I think Nathan's. right I think he's extremely hated um. and and by people in both parties I mean. I don't I here's why I don't think that. Trump will make it I could be wrong. there's not a Democrat out there that. vote for him there's very few. Independents that'll vote for him and. there's a lot of Republicans that won't. vote for him because they're never. trumpers and so when you start doing the. math that's concerning to me the math to. me doesn't show him winning a general. election and so I've got to.

strategically think that through my mind. if he can't do that who can who's the. next person that can and in my mind. that's the. santis and it really captures actually a. dynamic that's happening across the. Republican party which is and Lance is. open about this he's thinking. strategically who can we find who can. win he's thinking all these people they. hate Donald Trump he's polarizing and.

that's the kind of candidate who might. lose in November MH he's being deeply. pragmatic this is this is the classic. head versus heart argument and as you're. sitting in the room you're watching Nate. sit there and Nate Nate is all heart in. this debate you know he may be hated and. I think that's also a good thing though. because you know I'm sure there's a lot. of people out there that hate me but. there's a lot of people that respect me. though also so he's basically like and.

having people hate Donald Trump that's a. selling point but Lance wasn't just. making an electoral argument he was also. saying even if Trump wins all these. people that hate him they're going to. make him less effective you look back at. the history on things and Trump lost a. lot of seats in the house and the Senate. Republican side and he's going to need. all of that to get anything done so I. don't know if he can recapture that in. that first two years I mean if he can. it'd be beneficial to him but I'm going.

to be very concerned about that he's. he's um said a lot of things to a lot of. legislators and governors he's he's put. our governor down just because she. didn't support him and um another thing. that I fear is retribution how much of. that's going to come into play with his. first two years and and not that I blame. the guy he's he's got a lot of people. have done him wrong um I'd want to get. even with them as well but if we take.

that out and and really look at what we. need in the country we need leadership. we need somebody that's going to get. something done we need somebody that's. not a blow hard and I'm not saying that. Donald Trump's a blow hard I'm just. saying we just need somebody that's. going to do what they say they're going. to do and I fear that there's going to. be so much. resistance that it's it's going to play. havoc on any kind of results so that's. that's going to be one of the biggest. reasons I'm all in on to us and how does.

Nate respond to all of this I mean it's. hard to quote a shrug but he basically. says I'm still a trump guy yeah yeah. yeah well I totally agree um but we need. somebody that that the other countries. are going to respect or fear and Trump. has that and it goes back to what I said. before we got to start standing up for. ourselves and think he can do that. better for us I mean what's your.

reaction when Lance says that. strategically you know the disantis is a. better pick what do you think. strategy I don't know there's there's a. lot of of good points. and it it's it's hard for me to explain. so Nate it seems remains essentially. immune to this pitch from Lance right. Lance as he's going through this process. he he even diagnoses at one point what. he thinks is going on well Nathan if I.

can say that I'm just going to say it I. think that uh and I and I respect this I. think that you feel like Trump is owed. that second term because it was taken. from him and we needed he needs to get. in there and be able to finish what he. started and and um I think that I'm. thinking about this more strategically. so I don't necessarily disagree with. with Nathan's thoughts okay but I'm.

thinking. strategically uh more in a in a business. sense so I think maybe is that the. dividing line I don't what do you think. I don't know I mean we disagree on a lot. of stuff sure and at the end of the day. it's we're still. friends but even in this one. conversation there's a little bit of. surprise I guess one of the question is. like are you definitely showing up at a. caucus for him next Monday it might be.

5° if I wanted to go to a caucus I would. but will you I never have and that's. that Nate is a decided Trump voter but. even at the end of this long. conversation it wasn't clear for sure. that he was going to show up on Monday. in caucus for Donald Trump fascinating. and that's really one of the questions. that remains in this election is do. people who like Trump who haven't. caucused before do they show.

up and so if at this late date there's. any uncertainty about the results it's. because of that but let's presume that. things do turn out the way that the. polls anticipate that they will which is. that Trump will prevail in the Iowa. Caucasus how is Lance no doubt a bit. crestfallen by his inability to convert. his friend Nate how is Lance thinking. about the prospect of trump preventing. failing in Iowa I asked him about that.

let's say that Nate's right and and this. is what polling shows too which is that. Trump is is the likelier winner in Iowa. um how are you going to feel if he ends. up being your party's nominee um well. I'll have some disappointment for sure I. mean who wouldn't right but I think that. that disappointment needs to stop right. there and he says if Trump wins the Iowa. caucuses he'd be not particularly happy.

about it but I would definitely. support Trump rather than Biden when it. comes to the general election he'd vote. for him again even if a bit begrudgingly. and how would it feel to find yourself. back in the voting booth voting for. Trump one more time it's kind of like. rats there's some disappointment there. um it's it's. like it's like the cows got out dang it. now I got to go round them up again you. know um I don't know if that's a great.

analogy or not you know the another flat. tire we got to fix this and it's another. it just seems like it's another. maintenance item I guess. so all right last question what what. kind of effect is all this having on. your. friendship none none at all yeah no no. just another thing to argue about right. I'm going to get to go. Told You So Nathan I told you.

so all right so Shane what Lance's. experience with Nate I think. demonstrates what your own reporting has. also found is that in 2024 Republicans. in general and really Dan santis in. particular they basically may just have. gotten their math wrong right they. misunderstood how many Republican voters. were ever really available to them. yeah Michael if you look at polls now. I'm in Iowa but I can also look at.

National polling Donald Trump is at 60%. 70% in a lot of these surveys that means. that those bucket presumptions they. weren't quite right that the number of. people in that soft Trump category. either they all decided to go with Trump. or they were die hards all. along and so now on the eve of the Iowa. caucuses the reality is. that there seem to be a lot more nates. than lances and that more than anything.

explains this lopsided state of the race. as Ians get ready to. [Music]. caucus well Shane thank you very much we. appreciate it thank you. [Music]. Michael. a quick note we'll be back to analyze.

the results of the Iowa caucuses next. week after the holiday but on Monday you. can get caucus day coverage from our. colleagues over at the runup they'll. have a special episode with more about. the campaign strategies get out the vote. efforts and about what Iowa voters are. thinking you can look for the runup and. that special episode wherever you. [Music]. listen. [Music].

we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know. today the US and its allies carried out. Military strikes against more than a. dozen targets controlled by the houthi. militia an iranian-backed group in Yemen. that has for weeks been attacking. commercial ships in the Red Sea in. protest of Israel's war against Hamas.

the US LED air strikes against the. houthis who are allies of Hamas. represents an expansion of the war in. the Middle East that President Biden has. sought to avoid since Hamas attacked. Israel on October. 7th and Israel has a genocidal intent. against the Palestinians in Gaza. Thursday officials from South Africa. made their case to the United Nations.

top court that Israel's military. bombardment and Siege of Gaza has. demonstrated an intent to commit. genocide against Palestinians a claim. that Israel categorically denies the. level of Israel's killing is so. extensive that nowhere is safe in Gaza. on the first day of a historic two-day. hearing the South African officials. cited as evidence the words of Israeli.

officials including defense minister. yoav Galan who said that after the. October 7th attacks by Hamas Israel. would impose a Complete Siege on Gaza. because he said it was fighting quote. Human. animals Israel will present its defense. today Decisions by the court known as. the international court of justice are. binding but there are few means of. enforcement and a final ruling could.

take. years today's episode was reported and. produced by Rob zipco and Carlos Prieto. with help from Luke Vander plug it was. edited by Rachel quer and Paige cowt. with help from Ben Calhoun fact checked. by Susan Lee contains original music by. Maran Lozano Dan and will Reed and was. engineered by Chris Wood our theme music.

is by Jim runberg and Ben lburg of. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael Boro see you on Tuesday from. [Music]. Iowa.