How Trump’s Conviction Could Reshape the Election

from New York Times I'm Michael Boro. this is the. [Music]. daily. today how the criminal conviction of. Donald Trump will shape the remaining. months of the presidential race and. potentially its outcome my colleagues. Nate con Maggie hman and Reed Epstein. explain. [Applause].

it's Monday June. [Music]. 3rd hello Nate hello Michael so it's. been 3 days since Donald Trump was. convicted of 34 felony charges and now. that the dust is starting to settle it. feels like we have to turn to the. question of its impact on the election.

and you are our resident polling expert. at the times and so we want you to frame. that question with as much data as we. possibly can there's always been a sense. that for a lot of Voters a trump. conviction wouldn't change a thing so. whose vote according to all the polls. you conduct and study might this. conviction actually influence what's. that. Universe well we haven't yet conducted. any polls since the conviction so all of.

this is strictly theoretical but before. the conviction even before the trial we. were asking voters what they would do. how they would vote if Donald Trump was. convicted of a serious. crime and when we gave voters that. hypothetical a small but still. meaningful group of Donald Trump. supporters told us that they would then. vote for Joe Biden H how small but. meaningful so in our time Sienna.

Battleground polls in October 7% of. Donald Trump's supporters said they. would vote for Joe Biden if Donald Trump. was convicted of a felony wow now it's. just a hypothetical but 7% is real 7% is. isn't just real in our era of close. elections it's easily decisive the race. might not even be close but it's. important to emphasize and I can't. emphasize this enough that asking voters. a hypothetical is not a realistic. simulation of what will actually happen. now mhm they didn't even know what trial.

was about we just put in their face he's. guilty now what that's not the way it's. going to work in the real world right. but it shows that a meaningful sliver of. trump supporters are uncomfortable with. the idea of voting for Trump if once. he's been convicted of a felony and. moreover they were even willing to say. they support or would support Joe Biden. they said to the pollster Joe Biden. that's a real line for a trump voter to. cross I'm hearing you say that this. could could could could condition.

be a game. Cher look I'm not a strategist but the. fact that there's the sliver of Voters. who are repelled by the idea of Donald. Trump as a convict means that now that. he is a convicted felon how the Biden. campaign and the Trump campaign handle. this issue how they talk about this. conviction how they try and exploit it. could easily be decisive in a close. election this November.

[Music]. you ready to go Maggie I'm ready to go. okay so Maggie from what Nate con just. told us the election could theoretically. hinge on how both candidates decide to. talk about and campaign around this. criminal conviction of trump so as a. longtime student and observer of Donald. Trump take us into his emerging strategy. for how to approach and if possible.

capitalize on this conviction so let's. just start with how he's feeling about. this which is quite angry we know that. this verdict according to several people. who have spoken to him has infuriated. him this is clearly not the outcome he. wanted nobody wants to be convicted of a. crime right and if you think about it. Trump has lived in a legal gray area for. decades but prior to the last 16 months. or so he had never been charged with a. crime and even though privately he had. told people from the outset he expected. he would get convicted he is a big.

believer in his own luck and he had. really hoped that his winning streak. would continue and it did not it did not. and so this is really hard for him to. stomach and to process frankly um but. even before the verdict it was clear. what he was going to do and how he was. going to try to spin a guilty verdict so. from the moment he walked out of the. courtroom and into the courthouse. hallway where he talked to reporters. there this was a disgrace this was a. rigged trial by a conflicted judge who.

was corrupt we saw what has become his. standard Playbook emerge from his. genuine Fury here our whole country is. being rigged right now this was done by. the Biden Administration and that was to. characterize this outcome as the. inevitable culmination of a yearslong. partisan campaign to weaponize the legal. system against him mhm and we'll keep. fighting we'll fight till the end and. we'll win because our country's gone to.

don't and his message is fight against. this corrupt system and by fight against. it his message to voters is elect me. again and this message takes lots of. forms the first is a series of. fundraising pitches that are coming fast. and furiously I just want to read you a. few of them Michael I am a political. prisoner Never Surrender I was convicted. in a rigged political Witch Hunt trial I. did nothing wrong.

thank you very much everybody and after. these fundraising pitches it accelerated. after the verdict as far as the trial. itself it was very unfair he held this. not really a press conference but gave a. statement uh you saw what happened to. some of the witnesses that were on our. side they were literally crucified by. this man who looks like an angel but. he's really a devil he looks so nice and. soft uh long statement on Friday morning.

at Trump Tower where he tried to. essentially relitigate the case and cast. it in his own way legal expense was. marked down as legal expense think of. this this is my this is the crime that I. committed that I'm supposed to go to. jail for 187 years for and say things. that were not true such as that he faces. you know 187 years in prison but this is. far beyond me this is bigger than Trump. this is bigger than me this is bigger. than my presidency and I can fix this.

system that's corrupt and you can trust. me to take care of it November 5th. remember November 5th is the most. important day in the history of our. country thank you very much. every so Trump's plan is quite clearly. not in any way so far to avoid talking. about what for many people would be. legal stain on your record but to talk. about it a lot I mean he's holding a.

news conference explicitly to talk about. it he's sending out all these. fundraising messages referring to it and. he's going to lean into it in those. Communications to basically say that. thing I always warned you was happening. to me and could happen to me that the. other side would use the legal system. against me it's finally happened and the. only way that we can overcome this is if. you make me president and I become the. guy.

sitting a top the entire legal system. and I can fix it from the inside that's. basically the message yes and that has. consistently been his message Michael we. saw Trump run previously on the idea of. quote I alone can fix it and that really. is what he's saying here he is saying. that the only credible law enforcement. is me H that all of these efforts to. investigate me are tainted they're. political they're politicized and you. can F this by electing me so how should.

we be thinking about whether this. familiar framework kind of on steroids. now that Trump has actually been. convicted is working I know it's early. it's basically 72 hours since his. conviction but because he's been so. present in presenting this version of. events I wonder how we gauge if it's any. kind of a success we do have one pretty. powerful barometer which is his. fundraising he raised an astonishing. amount of money in a very short amount. of time shortly after the conviction was.

announced the websites where he's asking. people to donate crashed from so much. traffic wow and yet he still managed to. raise more than $50 million in less than. 36 hours I mean that is a little bit. hard to wrap your head around that's. well my math isn't that great but it's. well more than a million dollars an hour. right and look we can't corroborate. those numbers until we see the Fe. reports I think it's important to note. that but by all accounts they've raised.

a ton of money right and we've talked to. our colleagues about Trump's fundraising. disadvantage visive Joe Biden which is. pretty meaningful it sounds like of all. things a conviction a criminal. conviction has done more to catch him up. to Biden than almost anything else in. this campaign that's exactly right there. is a very real possibility that he will. if not erase the Gap significantly close. the gap that Biden has over him with. fundraising in the coming weeks.

but I have to say that so far what. you're. describing is feeling like a direct. appeal to the base the faithful to those. who are primed to love Trump and to see. the world as he does a legal system. rigged against him it feels less like a. strategy for reaching out to the you. know 7% or so of Voters who as Nate told. us earlier have told pollsters that a. conviction might send them from Trump to.

Biden so how should we think about that. it's a really good question Michael I I. think that his advisers would rather. that he doesn't spend so much time. retiga the trial details right they let. Stormy Daniels testify they let this. happen they let that happen his. strategist are okay with him putting. forward a message about how I'm here. fighting for a system that is being. perverted in his telling and his. advisers think there are enough people. even in the middle who are troubled by.

the. relative frivolous case here compared to. the much weigher ones of January 6th and. the classified documents case that they. think that that could have some appeal. but the problem is they can't control. how Trump is going to talk about this. they try and so the question becomes can. he deliver a focused enough message that. could appeal to people who worry about. how this case came about was it a. contortion of the law and who might open. to that message in the fall and meantime.

from what I'm seeing Maggie it seems. like everyone in the Republican Party. seems to be taking their cues from Trump. and really going all in on this strategy. of trying to use this conviction to win. over voters well they don't even need. much of a cue to take Michael they. already know what Trump wants them to. say but yes I mean everybody is pushing. it front and center the court system is. weaponized it is used to go after.

political opponents and people who work. for them I woke up heartbroken for our. country because the precedent set is. that if you don't like somebody's. politics you should use the American. system of law and order to try and. Destroy them you're seeing Marco Rubio. and JD Vance who are two top vice. presidential picks talking about the. verdict and talking about it in very. derisive terms and what it might mean. for the future the entire argument of. this case is that Donald Trump should go. to prison because an employee of his. filled out paperwork.

this is disgraceful you believe and. you're seeing Governors talk about it. you're seeing local lawmakers talking. about it you're seeing the house Speaker. talk about it you are seeing everybody. talk about it right he is the leader of. the Republican party and instead of. cleaving them away from him it's moving. them closer and he has just tightened. his grip whether that is something. durable in a general election where most. voters are going to vote about how. candidates impact their own lives and. how policies impact their own lives we. just don't know but they are very much.

putting this front and center for the. time being I want to talk about that for. just a minute because we've long. understood that Republican officials at. very high levels are willing to mimic. whatever Trump is saying after the. Access Hollywood Video for example in. 2016 during the impeachments but this. feels different we're now seeing members. of the United States Senate for example. Vance and Rubio embracing a message of.

outright lawlessness you know this is. supposedly the party of Law and Order so. it's. surprising not just to see them. embracing a convicted felon in Donald. Trump but embracing him at the very. moment when he is saying to the world. this is stupid this is rigged this. doesn't make any sense I just don't. think we've ever really seen that before. in American politics. Michael I'm going to go ahead and.

disagree a bit with your premise I don't. think there is anything surprising about. this because Donald Trump has so. thoroughly remade the Republican party. where what he wants it to be is what. everyone does and we have seen this over. the course of many many years so what. he's asking of these people is no. different than what he asked of them. during the first impeachment or the. second impeachment or when he was. indicted in this case it is defend me. defend me defend me and there is no. exception made now that he has actually.

been convicted because Republicans don't. believe this was a legitimate trial so. this is not an intellectually hard leap. for them to. make he has over the years remade the. Republican party this party of Law and. Order into the party of when it comes to. the Law whatever Donald Trump says. correct instead of it once upon a time. being the party of Law and Order where. this kind of conduct would be shunned. where say when Richard Nixon was in. office and con vinced to leave because.

of what he was facing in terms of. possibly being Ed and not putting his. party through that Donald Trump is going. to put his party through that every. single time and they will happily go. through it with him at this point well. to that point there are it would seem. two possibilities for how this all plays. out one is that Trump's conviction. strategy what we've been talking about. here it works because he hasn't just. remade the Republican Party In His Image. he's remade the entire country's. expectations about what a president can. or can't be the other possibil. is that this approach is just wrong and.

while Republicans are going to line up. behind Trump because of it average. Americans swing voters especially won't. and this will end up just recreating the. Republican party's problems from the. last election the 2022 midterms when. Trump's Renegade Outlaw approach his. insistence that the election was stolen. his defense of riots at the US capital. on January 6 ended up costing the. Republican Party so many congressional.

elections that could be happening. because of Trump's message right now all. over again in this presidential race. that's exactly right because again we. just don't know which way this is going. to play so much of this is going to. depend on how a narrow group of Voters. view this in a handful of states and if. there are enough people who can be. persuaded by him that this really was an. unfair thing that happened to him and. evidence of a corrupted and corroded. system then maybe it will work but if.

all Trump does is keep reminding people. that he has engaged in conduct that. other presidents have not that could be. a problem for him. right some of this depends Michael on. what Democrats decide to do broadly and. we just don't know the answer to that. yet Democrats so far are very clearly. conflicted about how to handle this. Donald Trump is not not conflicted at. all.

well Maggie thank you very much Michael. thank. [Music]. you after the break my colleague Reed. Epstein takes us inside that Democratic. conflict we'll be right back. read you cover the Biden campaign for.

the times we just talked to Maggie about. how Donald Trump is trying to turn this. negative a conviction into a positive by. basically deciding to talk about it. non-stop which is a risky strategy in. theory Democrats have a simpler task. here which is to figure out what to do. with a kind of political gift their. opponent leading in the polls having. been convicted of 34 crimes but Maggie's. final words to us were that Democrats.

were conflicted about how to handle this. suggesting that it is more complicated. than it may seem so my question to you. is is it and should it be. complicated well it usually is a good. thing when your opponent is convicted of. felonies during a campaign that right in. the campaign handbook that is generally. seen as a plus however we are living in. the year 2024 President Biden is running.

for re-election and he has a very. complicated relationship with Donald. Trump's legal problems he has from the. beginning vowed to not discuss them he. has essentially ordered the White House. and his campaign staff to stay away from. any discussions of kind of what the. indictments would mean for his own. political future and the presidential.

campaign and why would that be he does. not want to be seen as pulling the. strings or the man responsible for Trump. being indicted when he ran for president. in 2020 you may remember he ran on a. return to normal and one of the tenants. of that was an independent justice. department that would make decisions. without influence from the White House. but Reed importantly this case that. we're talking about and this conviction. is not a federal case it is a local.

Manhattan Criminal prosecution that has. resulted in a conviction so what has. Biden's relationship been to that has. that decree of don't talk about Trump's. legal problems because I am president. and I oversee the Department of Justice. has that applied to this case it has for. the most part held in this case the. Biden campaign has had a couple of sort. of jokey asides referencing the. Manhattan case if you remember when they.

made their offer to have a debate Biden. said that he would do it on Wednesdays. because that was when Trump was free. from The Trial but for the most part. Biden has stayed pretty mute about the. whole thing and then on Thursday. afternoon when the verdict came in. everyone in the universe that I report. about was anxious and ready to see if it. would change the Biden campaign's. posture toward Donald Trump's legal. issues. M and what we learned in the minutes.

after the verdict was delivered was that. they were staying the course essentially. that they issued a press release that. said essentially the only way to keep. Donald Trump out of the White House is. at The Ballot Box and the next day Biden. himself gives a press conference at the. White House good. afternoon before I begin my remarks I. just want to say a few words about what. happened yesterday in New York City he. spoke about Trump verdict the jury the.

judicial process the jury heard five. weeks of evidence five weeks after. careful deliberation the jury reached a. unanimous. verdict they found Donald Trump guilty. on all 34 felony counts and as far as. Trump himself Biden is pretty restrained. and it's. Reckless it's dangerous it's. irresponsible for anyone to say this was. rigged just because they don't like the.

verdict he talks about how Reckless it. is for anybody to cast doubt upon the. judicial system and the process through. which Trump was convicted but he doesn't. get into the specifics of Trump's case. nor does he dwell on Trump's new status. as a convicted felon the JM should be. respected and we should never allow. anyone to tear it down in all told he. was done talking about Trump's case in a. little less than two minutes this feels.

like a moment to pause on for just a. moment because at the precise time that. Trump becomes a convicted felon 34 times. over and he is blasting out fundraising. emails and saying I'm a political. prisoner the Biden Campaign which is. behind in the polls and is suddenly. presented with in theory an opportunity. to genuinely shake up this race those. are rare opportunities in a campaign.

like this the Biden campaign barely. touches it they did not go in on it full. boore the way that if the positions were. reversed you would expect Republicans to. attack Biden on right if and we we don't. need to imagine what that would look. like all you have to do is look at how. they have responded and reacted to the. president's son Hunter Biden being. indicted on criminal charges himself. they have attacked cter Biden they have.

suggested that his alleged crimes are. the responsibility of his father they. have branded them both part of a a Biden. crime family and all this comes as. Hunter Biden is scheduled to begin his. own trial on Monday making it all but. certain that Republicans will continue. to use that trial as fodder to attack. President Biden and other. Democrats we I wonder what the rest of. the democratic party is thinking and. saying about this very restrained Biden. approach to Trump's.

conviction well the minute the verdict. came in my colleague Nick Nas and I. began calling all manner of Democrats. Senators congressmen State party chairs. strategists on on on and what we heard. from in the end was a party that really. was ready to go on the attack we heard. from Democrats like Senator Elizabeth. Warren of Massachusetts who said the.

contrast in the campaign needs to be. between a man of lies and Chaos versus a. guy who's trying to make the country. work for everyone we heard from beta oor. the Texas Democrat who ran for president. against Biden against Biden who said. it's the obligation of every Democrat to. remind every voter that Donald Trump is. now a convicted felon and just how. unprecedented this. is we heard from members of Congress we. heard from state legislators we heard. from County and State party chairs and.

there is essentially no one who thinks. that it shouldn't be part of the push. that the party at large is making in. terms of telling voters about Donald. Trump that they want the words convicted. felon to be included in every sentence. that has the word Donald Trump in it. this sounds like leading Democrats. saying to Biden do more lean into this. moment play with this.

conviction right and the reason they. want that is that this conviction has. the potential to reach the sort of. Voters who are not paying attention to. the news we know that Joe Biden is. weakest among people who don't read. newspapers who don't follow television. news and these are the sort of people. who won't pay attention to some speech. that Biden gives on a policy topic but. they're going to hear that Trump was. convicted and Democrats think it's. important important to make sure that.

that gets baked in to how people feel. about Donald Trump especially people who. consume very little. news I mean all of that seems to. potentially point to the idea that. President Biden In This Moment being as. conflicted as he is about how to handle. this conviction and as a result being. subtle and not figuring out how to. really push on it. might be squandering his last real.

opportunity to fundamentally change a. race that according to almost all the. major. polls he's behind in and is in real. danger of losing it may be too soon to. say that he's squandering this because. Trump was convicted on Thursday he's. still convicted today he'll be convicted. next week and so they have not. foreclosed on the idea that they will. not lean into this. they just aren't doing it right now but.

they are running shorter on time every. day to make up that ground that you. talked about right trailing in the polls. and. so it's too soon to say that they're. squandering this particular opportunity. but it's not too soon to say that. they've spent a lot of time not making. up ground against Donald Trump right and. at the moment it sure looks like the. candidate in the lead in this race and. with the most in theory to lose from.

this conviction has the most robust plan. for trying to capitalize it and that's. Donald Trump and Joe Biden who would. seem to have the most to gain from this. conviction seems very inclined to. underplay it be subtle about it not make. it a centerpiece of his candidacy and. that's genuinely I think for a lot of. people going to be. surprising well there may be one other. way to think about this and that's that. the Biden campaign thinks that they're.

playing this just the right way every. day that Donald Trump talks about how. unfair the conviction was and how unfair. the trial was Joe Biden's campaign. thinks that that's helpful for them. because Donald Trump is not talking. about inflation or the Border or issues. that are acutely bad for Joe Biden to. have at the center of the nation's. political discussion and so Joe Biden. and his campaign are happy to have Trump. do 30 minute press conferences where he.

Rants and Raves about the judge and the. trial and the rules and the jury. instruction and all those things that. they think make this campaign about. Trump himself and not. about him saying things to some of these. these infrequent and lwi information. voters that the Biden campaign thinks. will decide the election if those people. were hearing Trump talk about inflation.

in the border and how Joe Biden has not. performed well on those two issues I. think the Biden campaign would be sort. of much more worried than if Trump is. talking about the. [Music]. trial right you're saying there's a. world where the Biden campaign sees. Trump's strategy of talking about this. case non-stop as helping not necessarily. him but them but them if Trump was. convicted and said that's over I'm going.

to talk about the border and the economy. I I think the Biden people would be a. lot more. worried we read thank you very much we. appreciate it thank you. [Music]. Michael we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know.

today in a detailed speech on Friday. President Biden endorsed a plan to end. the war in Gaza that would lead to a. permanent ceasefire the phased release. of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas. and the withdrawal of all Israeli troops. from Gaza the speech was an attempt by. Biden to pressure Israel's leader. Benjamin Netanyahu into accepting the. proposal but two members of netanyahu's. far-right Coalition immediately rejected.

the plan threatening to quit his. government if he accepts it and. Netanyahu himself expressed reservations. saying that Israel had not yet completed. the job of destroying. Hamas and the African National Congress. the party that freed South Africa from. apartheid and has held power there since. 1994 has lost its political Monopoly. over the country in the latest election. the party received only 40% of the vote.

far less than it got in the last. election analysts said that high. unemployment shortages of electricity. and rampant crime caused thec its once. unbreakable support to stay in power the. party must now Cobble together a. coalition government with its. [Music]. Rivals today's episode was produced by. Rachel quer AA chur v m z and Diana win.

it was edited by Devin Taylor contains. original music by Marian Lozano Pat. mccusker and Alicia bitu and was. engineered by Chris Wood our theme music. is by Jim brunberg and Ben Lark of. [Music]. [Applause]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael buaro see you tomorrow.