How the Iran Deal Is Testing the U.S.-Israel Alliance

From the New York Times, I'm [music]. Natalie Kitroeff. This is The Daily. >> [music]. >> As the US and Iran try to reach a. lasting end to the war, a major threat. has emerged, [music] the volatile. conflict in Lebanon. President Trump needs Israel to [music]. stop attacking Hezbollah there in order. to get Iran to agree to a deal. But many supporters [music] of Israeli. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu feel.

betrayed by Trump's [music] actions. Today, my colleagues Ronen Bergman. [music] and Mark Mazzetti explain the. growing tensions between the United. States and Israel and how this moment is. testing [music] a decades-old alliance. It's Wednesday, June 24th. Ronen, Mark, welcome back. It's great to. have you both here again. >> Thanks, Natalie. >> Pleasure being here. Thank you.

>> So, in the last several days, we have. seen a stunning break between the US and. Israel who entered this war in Iran as. partners and are now very clearly at. odds over how it ends. And this is a. split that you both said was already. developing in April, the last time you. were on the show. And so I want to start by asking how big. of a deal is the rupture that we are. seeing over this new ceasefire and peace. negotiation?

>> I think, Natalie, there's no, at least. not in my vocabulary, not in English and. not even in Hebrew, there are not enough words to describe. the magnitude of what we are seeing from. the point of view of Israeli politics, of Netanyahu's legacy, his present. chances to be reelected, and of course. from the point of view of the Israeli. public. Three times he was able to convince. Trump to allow him to strike in Iran, then he convinced him to join him in. June,

and then he convinced Trump to fulfill. his life dream and join US Israeli. strike together in order to topple the. regime. So, until then, everything went very. well for him. And this overnight shift. of the American administration. is the undo of everything for him. >> Yeah, is it fair, Mark, to say that now. the strength of that alliance between. the US and Israel is in question now.

that we see the terms of this MOU. between Iran and the United States? >> Yeah, Natalie, it's not only fair to say. it, I think it's also even potentially. an understatement. These two countries. knew how to get into a war, but they had. no idea how to get out of it. They were. on or they are on two totally different. pages about the outcome of this war. And. once the war didn't go according to the. most wildly optimistic outcomes that.

they hoped it would in the first few. days, things began going off the rails, the relationship started to fracture, and this is where we are today. >> So, walk us through how we arrived at. this point. >> So, let's go back to when the MOU was. signed last week and where things stand. right now. Iran's regime is still in. place. Iran's ballistic missile force is. diminished, but still intact. Iran's. nuclear program,

which was ostensibly the biggest reason. for carrying out this war, is very much. diminished, but the future of it is sort. of for a later negotiation. They've sort. of punted that issue. So, the main goals of the war haven't. been achieved. Even President Trump said, "Sir, you. shouldn't let them have any missile.". When asked about Iran's missiles, Trump. said, "Well, >> I said, "Well, >> they're allowed to have them.". >> What am I going to do? Am I going to let. Saudi Arabia have missiles, but they.

can't have them? >> Yes, sir. >> Can't doesn't work that way, you know? >> Implying that if other countries like. Saudi Arabia, like Israel have them, why. not Iran? >> And missiles aren't the problem. Missiles are. they hurt a little location, but they. don't blow up the planet. >> And of course, there is the sort of. central issue of Hezbollah and Lebanon, and the fact that this new agreement. restrains Israel's movements, freedom to.

hit Hezbollah is now restricted, and. this is, I think, as we talked about the. last time we were on the show, a. fundamental issue for Netanyahu. politically, because he's made this. pledge that he will protect Israel from. Hezbollah. >> Right. >> Israel wanted to. have these two issues, two fronts, totally separated. To get the Hezbollah. issue and the Lebanon Lebanese issue out. of the agreement, that the agreement. will only deal with Iran, the US, nuclear, etc.

Iran wanted to make the connection, because they felt they are in debt. because Hezbollah intervened to help. them. Now they need to help Hezbollah. Iran won. >> So, Israel is in this kind of. extraordinary position where, because. Iran just had so much leverage in these. negotiations, and the US agreed to these. terms, Israel's ability to fight. Hezbollah is now restricted, even though. Israel was not at the negotiating table, and they wouldn't have wanted this.

Trump signed the deal anyway. >> That's right. And so, we ended up on. ground where Iran came out with the. better end of the deal. >> So, what has the reaction been in. Israel? >> So, usually the massive machine of. mouthpieces for. Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Israeli. media, the radio stations, and mainly in. Channel 14, there's a TV station, I. think maybe it can be equivalent to.

Newsmax on steroids. Very, very supportive of Netanyahu. >> Uh-huh. >> Doesn't matter what Netanyahu does, he can flip and turn, and he can say one. thing and the next day the other, they. will support him. And also, until last. week, they also supported Trump. Their. admiration, their compliments, their. flattery to the president was second. only to their attitude towards Prime. Minister Netanyahu. But the second it. came clear that Trump is going to sign. the agreement, they flipped, all of.

them. >> [music]. >> And they started a slander campaign. They said that that Trump betrayed. Israel. They turned on the Vice President. [music]. Vance.

They called him anti-Semite. They said that he is the legitimizer. of terrorism, the legitimizer of. Hezbollah. >> Wow. >> [music]. >> And I think the worst was what they said. against Kushner and Witkoff. And one of the main anchor person for. Channel 14 said, [music]. "They did that because they're Jewish.". >> What?

>> I know it sounds unbelievable, but in. the Israeli television, they said that they are Jewish Jew boys. You know, slander terms about [music]. Jews. They said that. they received bribe from Qatar. >> Mhm. >> Once they identify the enemy, Vice President Pence and the two. advisers, they don't [music] care. They just. lashed on them.

>> Ronan, can you just decode that because. it sounds really difficult, honestly, to. parse? These are. Israelis who are lobbying anti-Semitic. attacks against Jared Kushner and Steve. Witkoff. Like, what is happening there? >> These people, they don't care about. anything except one thing, which is to.

support Prime Minister Netanyahu. Someone I know called them the Zoom. Bibi, meaning they do everything. Prime Minister want them to do and. support any of his policies. The other. thing is that they always look for a. scapegoat. Whatever goes wrong for. Netanyahu, they look for someone to blame. Now, they cannot blame the head of the. military or the head of Mossad, the head. of the Shin Bet, or the attorney. general. So, the only person they can. blame is is President Trump. >> You're saying essentially that they'll.

sink to any level in order to defend. Netanyahu, even if that means. perpetuating these anti-Semitic tropes. >> They will do everything they believe can. assist Prime Minister Netanyahu. in schlepping the blame on someone else, even if this includes anti-Semitic. phrasing, and ruining the relationship. with someone who might be the next. president of the US. Now, the ministers, the Netanyahu tried.

to keep on a short leash, they were a little bit more disciplined. and they didn't went down to this level. But they did say. Israel is going to defend itself whether. against Iran or against Lebanon.

They say and if the situation is so bad. and we are all alone, there's only one. person who can take care of the. situation and knows how to handle a. situation, of course Prime Minister. Netanyahu. Whatever the truce agreement. MOU says, Israel will continue to do whatever it. believes it's necessary or Netanyahu. believes it's necessary, Israel will. continue. And this what is basically led to an. ongoing more friction and more clashes.

between the Israeli and American. administration. >> These government figures are essentially. saying, "We will defy the truce when it. comes to fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is pretty amazing.". >> Yes. >> As that happens, that elicits a reaction. from the Vice President, from J.D. Vance. >> If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli. government, I might not be attacking the. only powerful ally that I have anywhere. left in the entire world. >> Talk to me about that. >> [snorts]. >> Yeah, Vance comes out publicly and is.

extraordinarily blunt. He said to. Israel, effectively, "We're your only. friend in the world.". >> Two-thirds of the defensive weapons that. have protected your homeland have been. built by American hands and paid for by. American tax dollars. >> And you should be grateful because we're. keeping you afloat, we're defending you. >> And anybody in Israel who thinks their. biggest problem is the President of the. United States needs to wake up and smell. the reality of the situation that.

country is in. >> Be careful in your criticisms because we. always have the ability to cut off the. things that. help defend Israel. So, it was this. veiled threat of cutting aid, cutting. military equipment, which of course. Israel does desperately need from the. United States, but it's sort of playing. this card which you have not seen a. senior American official certainly the.

American vice president do perhaps ever. >> You've seen people in their system, Ben. Gvir and Smotrich, who have attacked the. deal. And I guess my response to them. would be. what is your exact proposal? >> And then Vance also talked to our. colleague Ross Douthat and said that. these two hard-right ministers in. Netanyahu's cabinet, Ben Gvir and. Smotrich, should not be attacking this. deal without offering any other way out. of the war. >> You know, you're you're a country of of. 9 million people. You can't just kill. your way out of solving every single.

national security problem that you have. >> Taken together, this was just quite a. remarkable set of direct criticisms of. Israel from the vice president. >> Yes, and then late last week. >> We're starting off with some breaking. news this morning as you're taking a. live look right now at the. Israel-Lebanon border this morning. >> Hezbollah attacks into Israel, which. elicits a Israeli military response on. Beirut. >> Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon.

killed at least seven people, including. two children, hours after reports. emerged of a ceasefire agreement. >> Creating this flare-up that once again. really imperils this very fragile deal. >> This is not the reality we can accept, and this is exactly why the IDF. continues to operate in southern. Lebanon. >> And in that way, Lebanon is sort of. looking like the center of the question. of whether this will hold or not. >> Right. Iran said briefly that the strait.

had been closed again. And again, it. seemed like maybe this whole deal was. off. This was really a moment where. everyone looked and said, "Oh, no. Israel and Hezbollah are possibly going. to sink this entire peace negotiation.". >> That's right. And I think that's really. where the danger is right now. >> [music]. >> Is that Hezbollah has moved from the. periphery to. >> [music]. >> the central front in the future of peace.

between Israel, Iran, and the United. States. And to this question of control. Just how [music] much Iran can keep. Hezbollah in check so it doesn't blow up. the deal, and how much the United States. [music]. can restrain Israel from attacking. Hezbollah, also which might potentially. blow up the deal.

>> We'll be right back. Okay. So, the stability of a deal here. hinges on whether the fighting in. Lebanon stops, which in turn hinges on. how much control Iran and the US have. over their allies. >> That's right. >> Correct. >> So, Ronan, let's start with Hezbollah. How much control does Iran have? Because.

as we saw, Hezbollah continued to send. drones over the border to Israel after. this deal was signed. That attack. provoked a response. >> Iran has the full control. over what Hezbollah is doing. I suspect. the drones were sent as part of the. Iranian tactics to improve their. position in the negotiation because from. their point of view it's a win-win. If Netanyahu reacts or ordered the IDF. to react, then he gets himself into.

another confrontation with Trump. If he. doesn't, then he gets into confrontation. with his own constituency at home, his. base, because they say, "You're not. reacting to what Hezbollah is doing.". >> What you're saying is that what we saw. in terms of the attacks was Iran. potentially intentionally baiting Israel. here? Because if they didn't want. Hezbollah to attack, they wouldn't have. >> Yes, and more, Iran, I think, believes. it can control the level of the fire. without jeopardizing the deal, but.

leading to further friction between. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President. Trump, and at the end to an anger of the. president that would lead to forcing. Israel not just to a ceasefire, but to a. total withdrawal from Lebanon. >> In a sense, trying to set up a pitch. battle between Trump and Netanyahu, stirring the pot. Does that feel right. to you, Mark? >> Yes, although I think there's a. dangerous game here that Iran might be. playing, and they recognize that, right? They do not want a return to a.

full-scale war. They have locked in an. agreement right now that is very. favorable for them, right? Effectively, all they had to do was open the Strait. of Hormuz, and now they've got a lot of. money coming to them in what were frozen. assets, right? So, a return to a. full-scale war imperils that deal, but. also brings a lot more violence to the. country of Iran. So, to Rona's point, I think there's. this question of if they can keep the. sort of temperature at the right level.

where it can continue to imperil the. relationship between Netanyahu and Trump. without going back to a full-scale war, and that's the sort of danger here. But. thus far, they've been playing it quite. well. >> And it seems like the bet Iran is making. right now is that Israel will react. really forcefully to any attack from. Hezbollah by, for example, attacking. Beirut. And that kind of response has gotten. President Trump's attention recently.

>> I think they could do better. >> In a bad way. >> With respect to Hezbollah. >> Right? >> That's right. When two drones are shot. into the desert and dropped harmlessly, you don't have to knock down buildings. in Beirut. They could behave better. >> So, Netanyahu has framed these attacks. as defensive, right? We are responding. to Hezbollah's attacks on Israel, and. we've a right to defend ourselves, so. we're going to hit into Beirut. That is. also a card that Netanyahu will continue.

to play to see how far he can push Trump. and test Trump's patience, right? Knowing, as we said earlier, Netanyahu. has this sort of political situation. where he has to deal with the security. of northern Israel for his own political. future, but also he can't entirely blow. up his relationship with President. Trump, so he's going to see how far he. can push it. >> Okay, I want to turn to the question of. how much Trump can do to keep Netanyahu.

in check, because obviously, whatever. the incentives and reasons that Israel. has for attacking Hezbollah in this way, those kinds of strikes are precisely. what threatens a deal that Trump seems. to care very much about preserving. >> Yeah, I think that since Trump became. president again, Netanyahu showed high sensitivity. not to cross that line, not to force. Trump to outcast him publicly.

And when he felt that Trump is just. about to explode, he said, "Okay, I. obey.". But something is different now. Netanyahu maybe has now a different. calculus. The calculus is the coming. elections. And he believes that if he is just. obeying Trump, he will come up as. something very, very weak who cannot. stand up. to an American president and is trying. to say to his constituency, I am not.

obeying President Trump when it comes to. national security. And this road. might lead to further friction between. them. >> So, that in a sense tells us that Netanyahu. may be thinking he has more to lose in. obeying Trump than to gain from it. >> Prime Minister Netanyahu, I think, is. deliberating between obeying Trump or. going against him. and supporting a much stronger war in.

Lebanon. I don't think that he already. made a call, but his call will not just. impact the relationship between him and. Trump. It will also so impact the deal. between the US and Iran. >> And Mark, how is Trump responding to. this test of just how much his ally in. Netanyahu will really follow his lead? >> Well, so publicly, he is flexing. He's. basically pointing out how much he kind. of controls Netanyahu. He said, in fact,

a direct quote, that Netanyahu will do. whatever I want him to do, okay? I think. he's also willing to give Netanyahu who. some space to a point, but anything that is going to blow up. this deal that Trump desperately wants, that's the breaking point. >> It sounds like for Trump, the core. tension is how much does he care about. preserving this special relationship. with Israel versus how much does he care. about preserving this deal with Iran,

and how far he's willing to go. to make sure that it doesn't fall apart. >> I think President Trump has shown that. in his view alliances are dispensable if. they get in the way of something he. wants. In this case, what he really wants is an. end to this war and a deal and moving on. before the November elections. He's. thinking about his own political.

future. >> Obviously, Mark, the big thing President. Trump could do is make aid conditional. on this ceasefire sticking. Beyond. rhetoric, that is the actual leverage. the US has. Would Trump use that? >> Well, I think it's still unlikely that. President Trump would take that drastic. step to make aid absolutely conditional. And of course, he's not the only player. here, right? Congress has a role. But.

that was certainly the threat that J.D. Vance was raising when he told Israel, you know, back off, we're your only. friend, and we're the only one keeping. you all safe. >> Right. >> But the fact that this is all being. discussed now, that there's these real. questions of, you know, might the United. States actually condition aid or pull. aid, like we are in uncharted territory. in the sense that just a few months ago,

we were talking about this close. US-Israel partnership on the Iran war. >> But. if it's unlikely that the US actually. would pull aid or make it conditional on. the ceasefire sticking, is it possible that Netanyahu may just. say, "Okay, I'm going to call President. Trump's bluff.". >> I don't think that Netanyahu would like. to go down this road. He has already. lost so much in the Israeli public. opinion that accelerating the clash with. the presidency.

would only damage him more towards the. elections. I think that the Israelis don't. understand how much damage Netanyahu's. moves in the last, you know, 6 months. and the way that it's seen that. Netanyahu has convinced the president to. go. to this adventure. where the president thought maybe this. is going to be just another Venezuela. and found himself and the US found.

itself in the quicksands of the Persian. Gulf. And the damage of that will last. for. for a very long time. >> And Natalie, let me just add that we. talked about Netanyahu always sort of. saying his great superpower was his. knowledge of American politics and his. ability to play American politics. And. so it's sort of a great irony here that. the legacy ultimately might be driving a. bipartisan consensus between Democrats. and Republicans against Israel and sort.

of driving this relationship ultimately. into the ditch by the guy who said he. always knew more about American politics. than anyone else in Israel. >> Right, and the other irony is that Iran. may end up being this key factor that. really drives a wedge between the US and. Israel. Theoretically, they're common. enemy. >> Something that Netanyahu for decades has. been trying to get an American. president, any American president, to do.

would be to attack Iran. And he gets. this moment and he gets this opportunity. and this is where it ends up. >> And when you think about where this has. ended up, how bad is the damage to this. relationship? Can it be smoothed over if. the ceasefire ends up holding, if the. fighting dies down? Or has there been more permanent harm. done here? Something that could lead to. a fundamental reshaping of this.

decades-long alliance. >> I think the future. of the relationship depend on what would. happen with Iran. And what would happen. with Hezbollah. Because now Israel is sort of handcuffed. by the agreement. And if the agreement ends up with Iran. having nuclear capability of sort, they. have the high regime and if nothing. would happen with the missiles, they. would continue to support the proxies. Then the Israelis would have a. difficulty with that. But this is for.

the future and for the negotiation with. Iran. I think besides that, the Israelis. would be happy to forgive. Would be. happy to put this away. The Israel likes. the US more than any other country in. the world by far. And this friction, the Israelis would be. happy if this is over. >> And Mark, on the US side? >> I think in a short term, things can. survive in terms of the aid continuing. Fences can be mended. Things can appear.

on the surface to be basically normal. However, I do think that there is this. fundamental shift in American opinion. that has played out over time, but it's. been a particularly acute in the last. two and a half, three years. Since. October 7th, >> [music]. >> the Gaza war, two Iran wars, the war in. Lebanon. There's this view, [music] especially. among younger people, but not entirely. among younger people, who associate.

Israel with Netanyahu. And they don't see the benefits of. America's alliance with Israel. In fact, they see more negative. >> [music]. >> And that is a political shift that it's. hard to see reversing. given where American politics are going, where not only the Democrats but the. Republican Party is going. And so, [music] this I think is sort of.

reflects what Ronan is talking about, the fear in Israel. Even if it hasn't sort of sunk in yet in. Israel, >> [music]. >> that they're losing America. And I think that's a very real. phenomenon. And that could, in the end, be one of the real lasting legacies of. this war and of this moment. >> [music]. >> Well, Mark, Ronan, thank you both so. much. >> Thanks, Natalie. >> Thanks so much.

>> [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Tuesday, the House overwhelmingly. passed a landmark [music] housing bill, clearing the way for President Trump to. sign the most significant piece of. housing legislation in more than three.

decades. >> [music]. >> The measure aims to tackle the housing. crisis by boosting supply in an effort. to deal with [music] the acute shortage. of homes in America. The Senate already passed its version of. the same bill, and a White House. official said that Trump was expected to. sign it into law on Wednesday. [music]. And the Senate adopted a resolution. [music] instructing President Trump to. end the war in Iran or seek. congressional authorization to keep.

[music] it going. Trump never sought approval from. Congress for the war, and this was the. most significant bipartisan rebuke of. the conflict yet. The resolution doesn't have the force of. law, [music] but it did represent a. symbolically important break with the. president by some in the GOP. The measure passed 50 to 48 with four. Republicans joining [music] Democrats in. favor. Today's episode [music] was produced by.

Ricky Novetsky, Caitlin O'Keefe, and. Jessica Chung. It was edited by Page. Cowett and Lisa Tobin and contains music. by Dan [music] Powell and Alicia E-tube. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This. episode was engineered by Alyssa [music]. Moxley. That's [music] it for the daily. I'm. Natalie Kitroeff. See you tomorrow. >> [music].