How NAFTA Broke American Politics

from New York Times I'm Michael babbaro. this is the. daily a very very big hello to Wisconsin. oh it's good to be back in. [Music]. Michigan on the campaign Trail Donald. Trump and KLA Harris are constantly. talking about trade tariffs and domestic. manufacturing now people are moving. their companies to other countries and. we're getting killed by the way by. Mexico we announced the opening of more. than 20 new auto plants in the United.

States we'll put a tariff of 200% on if. we have to we're not letting those cars. come into the United States and and we. will ensure that the next generation of. breakthroughs are not only invented but. built right here in America by American. union workers that's because in many. ways the United States is still reeling. from a single trade deal that. transformed the US economy and remade.

both parties relationship to the working. class today Times magazine writer Dan. Kaufman with the story of how the North. American Free Trade Agreement broke. American. [Music]. politics it's Tuesday October. 8th Dan it's a pretty rare thing when we. can trace the origins of our politics.

back to something really concrete and. specific not you know a set of vast and. tangible forces but a moment in time. when a group of people got together and. made a decision and you contend that to. understand our politics today. specifically to understand this. presidential campaign you can go back to. one such decision made in the 1990s. around us trade policy so just explain. that and justify it sure well in.

1993 Congress passed the North American. Free Trade Agreement NAFTA it was signed. into law by Bill Clinton what it did was. it opened up trade with Mexico and. Canada and I think it was one of the. most pivotal political moments it. signaled the Outsourcing of good paying. manufacturing jobs particularly in the. Rust Belt states Wisconsin Michigan. Pennsylvania Ohio but it also signaled. something much more long term and.

transformative and I think that is a. political shift with the Democratic. party moving away from its working class. New Deal Roots towards the professional. class and the college educated college. educated and wealthier including a lot. of people on Wall Street and the. Republican party which had traditionally. been the party of big business at least. rhetorically embracing a workingclass. politics whether or not they fulfilled. any of those promises.

is another question but the rhetoric. changed markedly H other words NAFTA is. a moment where our basic understandings. and assumptions about how the two. parties relate to this. really huge and always symbolically. significant segment of the population. the working class the people who work in. factories the people who make things it. changes and it kind of shatters that's. right it realigned the parties and I.

think those Dynamics are still playing. out today so Dan take us back to the. time and the place and the debate that. brought us NAFTA and I should say I. vaguely remember it because I think it. was pretty much the first big public. policy debate that occurred in my young. adulthood CNN was kind of a Mainstay in. my childhood living room and I can. remember some of this but very vaguely. so plunge us back into it sure well the.

debate over NAFTA emerged at a kind of. interesting difficult moment in the. 1970s there was a period of high. inflation and then High interest rates. and this eventually led to two. recessions right that is the context in. which Ronald Reagan first floats in 1979. this idea of a North American Free Trade. Agreement and what was his what was the. logic of it he was really influenced by. Milton Friedman a Libertarian Economist. they believe that free trade was a.

win-win situation that it would increase. our exports which would create all these. jobs and take away government regulation. and they were deeply opposed to that and. Reagan actually managed to take a step. towards NAFTA he had made an agreement. with Canada that allowed for goods to be. exported without tariffs or duties and. goods to be imported without tariffs or. duties thus free trade thus it was. called free trade but the US and Canada. had similarly developed economies they. paid about the same level in wages the.

difference with NAFTA was now you were. creating a similar agreement with Mexico. with a country that was quite. impoverished and the critics immediately. feared that it was merely a pretext to. allow corporations to exploit cheap. labor in other words they could avoid. paying union wages by moving plants to. Mexico Mexican workers were paid far. less than a unionized Canadian or. American worker so In This Moment.

there's really a philosophical debate. occurring will this Trade Agreement help. the US economy or will it hurt it and. the Republicans from what you're saying. are coming down strongly on the side of. this being good for the US economy and. good for the United States in general. yeah that's right and it was really. George HW Bush who pursued NAFTA and. actually negotiated the agreement with. his counterparts the prime minister of.

Canada and the president of Mexico. however it still needed to be ratified. by Congress and then signed into law by. the president so NAFTA becomes the. centerpiece of the 1992 presidential. campaign good evening and welcome to the. second of three presidential debates. between the major candidates for. president of the United States there. were three candidates George H W bush. the Republican incumbent versus.

Democratic nominee Bill Clinton and then. a really interesting Third Party. candidate named Ross perau who was a. wealthy businessman so President Bush I. think you said it earlier let's get it. on let's go and I think George HW Bush. took the position that the agreement. should just be signed the thing that. saved us in this global economic. slowdown has been our exports and what. I'm trying to do is increase our exports. it would lead to an export boom and a. great flourishing of American jobs and I.

want have more of these free trade. agreements Ross perau was the most. critical the most important issue for. him was opposition to NAFTA and he. articulated that position if you're. paying 12 $13 $14 an hour for factory. workers and you can move your factory. South of the Border pay a dollar an hour. for your labor have no Health Care have. no environmental controls no pollution. controls and no retirement and you don't. care about anything but making money he. issued one of the most memorable lines.

about NAFTA there will be a j sucking. sound going south he said that there. would be a giant sucking sound of. American jobs if NAFTA was passed I'd. like to answer the question because I've. actually been a governor for 12 years so. I've Bill Clinton did something very. striking he took a middle position so. I've known a lot of people who've lost. their jobs because of jobs moving. overseas and I know a lot of people. whose plants have been strengthened by. increasing exports in which he supported.

the agreement the trick is to expand our. export base and to expand trade on terms. that are fair to us but he wanted. separate side agreements to protect. environmental regulations and labor so. more trade but on Fair terms and favor. investment in America thank you I think. we have a question over. here so Bush the Republican on the race. he's pretty much saying do this deal.

don't worry about it it's going to work. out perau the independent is saying. don't do this deal this is a terrible. idea it's going to hurt American. manufacturing Clinton the Democratic. nominee and as we know future president. he's trying to straddle those two and I. want to linger on Clinton why do you. think Clinton took that middle approach. given that the Democratic party had been. the party of organized labor and had. relied on manufacturing workers and and. their unions as such a core constituency.

in elections right well the Democrats. had been out of power for 12 years by. that point there was a tremendous desire. to reclaim the presidency Bill Clinton. was also part of what they called the. new Democrats which had emerged in the. 80s and it was trying to reorient the. party to be more business friendly. corporate friendly and remove its image. as a party that was supportive of the. activist government of the new deal that.

it had become modernized and NAFTA was. seen as the future organized labor was. deeply opposed throughout and the reason. he tried to find this middle position. was to allay their fears and to thread. this needle and for the purposes of this. election he did thread the needle he won. however it's also worth noting that Ross. proo won 19% of the vote that was the. highest share since 1912 for a third. party game. right and Bill Clinton is now the.

president of the United States the first. Democrat in 12 years and he begins. selling NAFTA I have lived with the. manufacturing changes of the last 15. years and I would never knowingly do. anything that would cost Americans jobs. mainly to the Democratic party he needed. a significant faction of them in order. to pass it so he pushed very very hard. but I'm telling you nothing I do as your. president within the borders of the. United States can create more jobs and.

higher incomes unless somebody buys the. stuff we produce he thought more exports. would help create more American jobs. offsetting whatever loss of jobs we. would have I mean this is a the world is. changing so is cruel or tough as it is. we can't pretend that it's not going to. happen you know there was also an. undercurrent of inevitability. globalization was here whether we like. it or not and we had to tame it to our. benefit so I ask you to talk to your.

friends and neighbors talk to the people. who are worried about it tell them their. fears are well-founded but they don't. have anything to do with this agreement. this agreement will make it better the. other thing he does is he dispatches Al. Gore his vice president welcome to a. special edition of Larry King live and. Gore winds up sitting across from Ross. perau on Larry King live this is a huge. I remember this was an event huge. National event and they debate na if.

when I'm in a room with corporate. America the first thing they say is pero. why don't you keep your mouth shut you. perau is saying his corporate CEO. friends are telling him please shut up. this is a great deal for us meanwhile. Gore is relying heavily on this. technocratic expertise every living. former president of the United States in. both parties every former secretary of. state every former Secretary of Treasury. every living Nobel Prize winner in.

economics conservatives liberals. everyone in between they've never agreed. on anything he is basically saying this. is an empirical fact there have been 23. studies of the impact of NAFTA on jobs. in the United States 22 of them have. shown that it will cause an increase in. jobs in the United States the one it's. what the experts say is the best thing. he's saying trust the smartest people in. the country trust the smartest people. and that is also still really. interesting in terms of the democratic.

party's realignment away from. workingclass labor oriented party. towards someone that is really concerned. with technocratic advice and there's. another professional class constituency. that's deeply in favor that is the media. including the New York Times our. editorial board we should probably say. our editorial board a lot of the media. were now college educated folks and they. were distant from these workingclass. places organized labor the people that.

were fighting NAFTA were seen as. yesterday's news they were fighting a. losing battle NAFTA was the future it. was irreversible there was a lot of. triumphalism around this time it feels. like what you're describing as something. of an echo chamber where these. Democratic leaders in the Clinton. Administration are talking about how. every expert thinks this is the right. thing to do these journalists are. hearing that and saying well it must be. the right thing to do and the overall. message that you're there hearing from. from the news media and the White House.

is kind of the same which is this is the. right thing to do yes it was an echo. chamber but you know it was still a very. unpopular idea among the American public. polling at one point showed that two. thirds of the American public were. against it wow at the same time there. remained one hugely consequential hurdle. to the enactment of NAFTA and that was. the vote in the House of Representatives.

a bill to implement the North American. Free Trade Agreement and I would say it. was one of the most important debates as. far as contemporary politics Mr Speaker. for months the people of America and its. Representatives have struggled with the. challenge of NAFTA is it good or is it. bad will it help to expand our economy. or Shrink it today the house must decide. and the critics were really heard loudly. in the house debate Corporate America. and the big money have told us that.

NAFTA is a good. deal I don't believe them people like. Bernie Sanders who was an independent at. the time spoke out passionately against. it even the administration admits there. will be at least 200,000 people who will. lose their jobs and what are we given to. them table scraps and a lot of Democrats. came out in force against it Mr Speaker. this debate comes down to one simple. question who side are you on one of the. leading opponents of NAFTA was David.

Baner who was from Michigan and was the. house whip the working people who stand. against this treaty don't have degrees. from Harvard they don't study economic. models but they know when the deck is. stacked against them they know it's not. fair to ask American workers to compete. against Mexican workers who earn a. dollar an hour he emphasized the. resentment of a lot of workingclass. people towards the elite experts that.

were telling them that they couldn't. understand the possible benefits to them. but there were a lot of democratic. Representatives that were more favorable. to. NAFTA understandably many members of. this body and citizens of this country. are concerned about job loss I am too I. am supporting this agreement because job. creation and exports go handin hand. Madam chairman I rise in support today. and in all honesty uh a decision of this.

kind has been a tough call for someone. from my region of the country the fact. is that change is not something to fear. we are sending a message about whether. the world's only superpower thinks its. best days are in the past or in the. future NAFTA is neither Heaven Nor Hell. it's neither Nirvana nor the depths of. depression it just makes good sense for. America's economic future I urge my. colleagues to vote for it and then there. was the vote. [Music].

on this vote the A's are. 234 the Nays are 200 and the bill is. passed and it passes narrowly 234 to 200. this is a decisive moment for the. Democratic party the vast majority of. Republicans voted for NAFTA but it was. crucial that Democrats had supported it. more than a hundred of them Bill. Clinton's trade representative later. said George Bush could have never pass. NAFTA that it had to have been a.

Democrat it had to have been Bill. Clinton he said no Republican president. could have because he couldn't have. brought enough Democrats the Senate soon. passed the bill three days later and in. early December. 1993 Bill Clinton signs NAFTA into law. so Dan once NAFTA goes from. theoretical and the debate is over into. a day-to-day free trade reality across. North America what ends up happening. well GDP is increasing the economy is.

booming on a lot of levels for a lot of. people but it also launches the free. trade Juggernaut several years later. Bill Clinton is able to establish. permanent normal trade relations with. China meanwhile in the United States a. lot of factories are moving. overseas between 1997 and 2020 more than. 90,000 American plants closed. some 5 million manufacturing jobs were.

lost this translated into loss of union. jobs and a tremendous rise in income. inequality most of the benefits for. NAFTA were going to wealthier people so. while it was a net gain for the country. as a whole it wasn't within the country. in other words the people that don't. have a college degree are hurt by trade. deals with low-wage. countries and you know it's important to. remember that more than 60% of the.

population does not have a college. degree there was a British behavioral. scientist that did a study of wellness. and he found that the psychological toll. of losing a job is equivalent to losing. your spouse wow so it's no wonder that. people feel that their lives have been. totally. destroyed and this pain is concentrated. very heavily in a lot of the Rust Belt. States Michigan Ohio and my own home.

state of Wisconsin where we start to see. the human and political impacts from. [Music]. NAFTA we'll be right back. soan tell us what you have found through.

all your reporting in Wisconsin about. the impacts of NAFTA on workers jobs and. over time on the politics of that place. sure Wisconsin is one of the places. where nafta's dark side has really. become clear Milwaukee which is the. state's biggest city and the industrial. center of the state who was once known. as the Machine Shop of the World. produced truck frames agricultural Ma. Machinery Motors industrial controls but.

you know it's important to understand. that de-industrialization was already. happening before NAFTA passed between. 1979 and 1983 Milwaukee had already lost. a quarter of its manufacturing jobs and. then you have NAFTA which really. accelerated this process and one of the. companies that I paid particular. attention to is Master Lock everybody. knows their iconic pad locks these are. the locks literally you use on your high. school locker right right right those.

combination locks right they've been. making locks in Milwaukee since the. 1920s and the plant was a smaller. industrial Factory at its peak it. employed about 1300 people but everyone. I spoke to loved working there it was. something that was deeply embedded in. the city's sort of industrial. Consciousness and after NAFTA passes. they did what a lot of other companies. were doing they built a plant in Mexico. in their case this plant in nalis was. quickly taking jobs from the Milwaukee.

plant within a 2 or threee period a. thousand Union positions were sent. abroad but the plant kept going and it. kept employing people although on much. smaller scale than it used to and one of. the people that I spent time with. recently is a very interesting worker. named chancy. Adams chance he man what's up how you. doing doing good. and he helped me really understand the.

impact of NAFTA on him and on The Wider. community and really on American. politics as a whole just start at the. beginning what was it like growing up in. Milwaukee when you were this was like in. the 80s and 90s it was hard but it. wasn't if that makes sense what I'm. trying to say tell us about chansy Adams. what should we know well chansy was born. in 1980 grew up on the North side of. Milwaukee I come up in aity s family. home so me and my brother my sister my.

mother he was raised by a single mom she. was a cook at Milwaukee Museum I mean. she just a hard worker she went to work. and made sure we had everything we. needed and we came up we never went. hungry never went without clothes or. anything you know what about the. neighborhood you grew up in just just. describe what it was like when you were. a. kid it was great to me you know it like. I grew up on Ninth and brly so it was a. lot of bad things going on down there it.

was a lot of drug dealing and stuff like. that but I don't have nothing bad to say. about where I grew up in my childhood it. was. good when you were young what did you do. for fun in the. neighborhood he described a happy. childhood biking around with his friends. I don't roll past Mass like a thousand. and thousand times over as a kid you.

know one of the places where they biked. around were the plants on the north side. of Milwaukee this was a city that's. deeply entwined with its industrial. history and Milwaukee is filled with. these factories uh Miller masterlock. briis and Stratton Al Smith them was the. places where a lot of people from the. South. came like my family was Bron Straton and. a Smith them the plants they got in and. these are places ch's relatives worked.

growing up you hear older people talk. like them are the places where you want. to be it was like solid good wage and. good wages and like you can tell like. when we was like kids we be right there. and you see the cars out there you see. all nice cars right going to work you. know so we knew that was. money so if you like my age then and you. figure hey I'm not going to college but. I'm G I'm gonna these one of the jobs. that you was going to try to.

get eventually a friend of his who had. gotten a job at masterlock calls him and. says you know you should really apply. here let me let me try it out and he. actually got me in so he applies for a. job at masterlock as a temp and gets one. in. [Music]. 2010 now Dan you had said there isn't a. ton of masterlock left after NAFTA so by. the time chansy gets a job there in.

2010 how much of Master Lock is there. for him to really join in Milwaukee. there's only a couple hundred Union. positions at that point chansy started. out at a little more than $10 an hour. but Chancey talked so much about how. immediately he took to it you know I see. a lot of these older men and the things. they accumulated in life working at this. plan and the work they put in and I'm. like you know that's what I want right. there for chansy and a lot of the.

workers while the starting wage was low. there was a lot of room for advancement. to skill jobs that paid much much more. how much does chansy and everyone else. among these several hundred workers who. are still at masterlock how much do they. worry that what's left of this company. would eventually be outsourced under the. incentives of NAFTA I think some feared. it but many felt like they were secure. they had highly specialized jobs and.

there was another reason they felt this. sense of security do you remember when. President Obama came to the plant yeah. that was my first year there first or. first or second. [Applause]. year in 2012 Barack Obama paid a visit. to Master Lock I'm actually here today. because this. company has been making the most of a. huge opportunity that exists right now.

to bring jobs and Manufacturing back to. the United States of America I knew it. wasn't going nowhere he was he was there. on the strength of how Master Lock. supposed to been bringing jobs back by. then Master Lock had increased its. Milwaukee Workforce to a little more. than 300 some people told me it was. because they'd had a few challenges. manufacturing overseas so there was a. modest reshoring but something that was. trumpeted by the president of the United. States we're going to create more. success stories like Master Lock and we.

will remind the world just why it is the. United States is the greatest nation on. Earth thank you everybody God bless you. God bless you. man I just happened to be so close so. when he came off the stage he was just. shaking everybody hand and I was right. there so I shook his hand and everything. how did it make you feel I'm the. Man I mean you got to think about where. I coming from where I come from I just. shut a president.

here cuz I ain't really know too much. about politics and stuff like that and I. was in the union now and you know I was. learning a little bit at the time and. and for chansy this is a big moment he. had never been politically active but he. had started getting involved with the. union and here he is meeting the. president of the United States who the. union is heavily supporting so I voted. and he votes for the first time in his. life for Barack Obama he the. [Music].

man they called me Obama at the plant. because I was the first black guy to run. the hydr mats at mashalot and he starts. moving up at the plant he learns to. operate a complex machine called a. hydromat and now he's making $20 an hour. he's working a lot sometimes 7 days a. week making a lot of overtime and he. buys his first house when I met the guy. over here I bought the house from he he. used to work at mash.

aot and I got my keys and all of that. and I sat on my stairs over here and I. cried cuz like I'm sitting on these. stairs right now I'm sitting on my Sweat. Right now I worked hard and I bought my. first house and I bought it at 35 or. something by. myself eventually he's earning more than. $30 an hour and not only is his job at. masterlock help him grow a nest egg and.

support his family he's got four kids. but it's a real source of Pride for him. my mother was very my sister brother a. very proud of it my brother work now he. said one of the things that gets him up. in the morning knowing that I'm up in. the morning I know lil bro up I know he. going to work oh let me get up you know. what I'm saying it's a beautiful feeling. to be the little brother and have. everybody up to your work ethic and see.

where you come from and seeing what you. accumulated I did become a man in that. plant but it made me realize I'm a good. man I feel good about. myself I feel good going to work every. day and coming in and and the younger. guys looking at me how I looked at the. older guys when I was coming in. young they see me in my uniform they see. me you know with a nice haircut smelling. they know that it's strictly sweat.

that's got me what I got so it makes you. feel great you. know I wasn't going. anywhere tell me about May. 24th last year at the beginning of the. day was a normal. day the supervisor he came to us and. said we having a town hall so we go. upstairs but the whole scenery was.

different like the chairs was turned a. certain way it was tables like. barricaded and it was armed guards up. there so I'm like whoa what's going. on and he announced it I have some bad. news I'm here to inform y'all of March. of 24 the plant will be. closing and the whole room went silent. no.

explanation no. nothing a couple people got up and. walked out some ladies start. crying some men were just angry some. guys was said I knew it I knew it what. were you feeling when you heard the. news I went. numb and then I got a sense of being. scared I put my whole life around this. place. I don't know nothing.

else you know like what am I going to. do like I got responsibilities here what. I supposed to do. now I'm 43 years old starting all the. way. [Music]. over so 30 years after na pass the. masterlock plant in Milwaukee is is. finally closing that's right it's the.

Final Chapter on the Milwaukee story of. masterlock some of these jobs will go to. other places but one Union official told. me that most of them will go to the. company's plant in nogalas Mexico so. what happens to chansy well chansy is. really in a kind of desperate State he's. scrambling no one wanted to hire me I'm. talking about he applies for jobs. nothing is coming through then a. cooworker at masterlock gets him a job. at another Factory but he's making a lot.

less than what he used to at masterlock. so I had to get another job I going to. lose my house so he eventually picks up. a second job yeah get there by 5:00 a.m. now his days start very early whenever I. get done so usually about 9:00 9:30 and. and very late and then have to come. right home and try to eat something jump. in bed and get up again at 3:45 he. hardly has any time for himself except a. little bit on the weekend. so it's a constant moving constant grind.

constant no sitting down and it's tiring. you know mentally. really I keep thinking back to the. Democrats on the house floor who warned. that this is what was going to happen. and for a time in listening to you. Tellis story about chansy it feels that. he's the exception you know he's not. going to be hurt by NAFTA but it feels. like one of the morals of of this story. is that NAFTA kind of comes for almost.

everyone when it comes to these plants. in the Upper Midwest yeah I think that's. true and there's so many ways that NAFTA. has shifted the Power Balance you know. we talked a lot about the closing of. these plants but it's also true that. NAFTA gave companies enormous leverage. even just to threaten to close the plant. and that they could extract steep. concessions on unions and others to. lower their wages it's a real downward. pressure on workingclass Americans we.

talked about this a bit I just want to. make sure so you're not planning to vote. this year nah I'm done with. that it's pointless I haven't been. fitted off of nothing that any president. had ever done it always been taken from. me if you poor or right in the middle of. poor middle. class you going to bust your ass man to.

get what you want there's no help that's. why I have no respect. for. politics presidents and it changed. me do you have any thoughts on Trump or. kamla. Harris Trump is a. Corr but he. Gangsta I love that guy he don't. the only good thing I can say about.

Trump he's a. businessman he'll be successful that way. I think C haris she just a. crook everybody keep get on this Black. Wave Black Wave because they're black. you should vote no don't care what color. you are you suck you suck I definitely. have no faith in her if I was to vote. and I had the choose between the two I. would vote for. [Music]. Trump at the beginning of our. conversation you talked about this idea. that NAFTA and its aftermath turned the.

Democrats from the party of the working. class into the party of college educated. Elites which helps me understand in a. way I don't think I ever really did. before just how much of an opening. Republicans had to remake themselves. into the party that exploits that and. that obviously comes in the candidacy of. Donald Trump exactly exactly free trade. is the Mantra of both parties it's.

what's coming out of Washington until. the 2016 election I'm going to say. something that conservatives don't like. because while I'm a free Trader I'm a. smart Trader I'm a fair Trader I know. what I'm doing I'm gonna Donald Trump. emphasized an economic nationalist. message and you're losing plants over. here and you're losing a plant over. there highlighting the job losses from. NAFTA and other free trade deals any. Direction I can point to you're losing. jobs you're losing your plans we're not.

going to let it happen. anymore so now you have an incredible. shift in the Republican party the party. that created NAFTA in the first place is. now opposed to it at least rhetorically. and of course the Democratic candidate. he faces is none other than Hillary. Clinton your husband sign NAFTA which. was one of the worst things that ever. happened to the manufacturing indust. and in the presidential debates NAFTA.

becomes one of the most important issues. NAFTA is the worst trade deal may be. ever signed anywhere but certainly ever. signed in this country and now Trump. rails against it calls it the worst deal. ever made uh I think my husband did a. pretty good job in the 1990s I think a. lot about what worked and how we can. make it work again he appr but Clinton. largely defend it's the single worst. trade deal ever approved in this. countryes went up for everybody what was. it do you think in this debate and in. this campaign that made Hillary Clinton.

and the Democrats so confident that. NAFTA opposition to it was a losing. strategy for Trump because clearly she. could have mimicked his position she. could have said you know we've come a. long way and and I think that uh NAFTA. did have some real problems well I think. she made a political calculation it was. really articulated very well by Senator. Chuck Schumer in the summer of 2016 in. the leadup to the election he said for. every bluecollar Democrat we lose in.

Western Pennsylvania we will pick up two. moderate Republicans in the suburbs of. Philadelphia and you can repeat that in. Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin can you. just translate that what is he saying. about nafta's impact on the politics of. the parties I think he's signaling a. class realignment of the party they are. going to focus their efforts on winning. Suburban voters who tend to be wealthier. versus the blueco collar workers that. had traditionally supported the party. since the new deal that's kind of. interesting so what Democrats are saying.

explicitly and this sounds like an on. the reccord quote is we recognize that. we have now become a party whose appeal. is to higher income higher educated. Americans and we may be forsaking a. certain kind of workingclass voter in. Western Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and. we're okay with that because we think. the math favors us exactly exactly right. and this kind of thinking was so. embedded in Hillary Clinton's campaign. that she didn't visit Wisconsin once.

during the general election in the end. Trump wins the presidency very narrowly. by flipping three of the so-called blue. wall States Michigan Pennsylvania and. Wisconsin this is something no. Republican had done in more than 30. years and I don't think it's a surprise. that these states were some of the. hardest hit by NAFTA and similar free. trade agreements and Trump did. renegotiate NAFTA in 2018 with the. United States Mexico Canada agreement it.

made modest improvements in conditions. for Mexican workers to disincentivize. the movement of jobs and factories to. Mexico but it doesn't seem as though. that's worked last year for example. stantis one of the big three moved some. production to a plant in Mexico and of. course masterlock has closed its. Milwaukee Factory but on paper and kind. of symbolically to voters Trump did. fulfill a pledge to go after the.

original NAFTA that is true and that is. what he's campaigning on like a lot of. Trump's promises they didn't really ever. come through and he actually passed tax. cuts that incentivized offshoring of. jobs on the Democratic side you had also. a real. realignment President Biden and vice. president Harris increased. the tariffs that Trump had established. on certain Chinese products such as.

electric vehicles Biden has also. emphasized his closeness to labor unions. in a way that previous democrats for. Generations had not and he's really. courted them and was the first president. to walk on the picket line which is very. significant when you think back on the. NAFTA debate and Bill Clinton is pushing. aside the concerns of organized labor we. should point out that this is a somewhat. meaningful. thing for Biden to do because he was in.

the Senate when NAFTA passed he voted. for NAFTA he did vote for NAFTA and he. voted for the agreement establishing. permanent normal trade relations with. China right Dan it feels like Biden's. Journey here is emblematic of the. Journey of the entire Democratic party. because what you have by the end of. Biden's. presidency is a situation where. Democrats who brought NAFTA Over The. Line and really gave us our current free.

trade era under Bill Clinton and then. who watched Republicans exploit The. Fallout from it under Donald Trump. Democrats now themselves have said you. know what this all went too far and. Biden and the Democrats I'm sure. probably wouldn't put it this way but. their rhetoric now on free trade on. things like NAFTA has moved a lot closer. to Trump's and and I have to believe. that's because they now recognize what.

NAFTA did to the working class yeah I. think that's true and by the time we. have enter this campaign both parties. are critical of the free trade. agreements of the past kamla Harris one. of her first events with Tim Walls was. at a UAW Hall in Michigan and she has. really emphasized the importance of good. paying jobs whether it's too little or. too late is an open question you're.

talking about 50 years of. de-industrialization and that was. greatly accelerated and intensified by. NAFTA and the free trade deals that. followed. it if you could say anything to Trump or. KLA Harris about your life and your. experiences with masterlock growing up. in Milwaukee what would you tell them. what would you want them to know one of. the main things you people need to do is.

keep these jobs in the United States man. these are people. livelihoods people get up and go to work. every day not even getting paid what. their Worth to eat and then they snatch. it they take it away with ease and the. people that's taking away is well off. they don't have to worry about these. struggles. I think it tells a larger story of.

American workingclass disaffection. that's rooted in a response to NAFTA. that response isn't always rational or. linear sometimes it's unpredictable. Trump seized on that making wild. promises that appealed to a lot of. people in Desperate Times the Democrats. have started to shift away from that. focusing more on what I think is the. most. underappreciated issue in American.

politics and it's so simple and almost. benal but it's really jobs and it's. particularly well-paying jobs and what. that means to a person that doesn't have. a college degree that sense that they're. okay and their family's okay and who's. the best person that's going to help. make those jobs and give them this. opportunity. well Dan thank you very much we.

appreciate it thank you Michael it was. really a pleasure talking with. [Music]. you we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you need toer Day. by Monday night hurricane Milton had.

strengthened at an explosive Pace. becoming a lethal Category 5 storm with. Winds of 180 mph it's just an incredible. incredible incredible hurricane Milton. is expected to make landfall on. Wednesday its exact path is still taking. shape but forecasters predict it will. bring life-threatening wind rain and. flooding to Coastal Florida where local.

meteorologist John Morales of NBC News. was briefly overcome with emotion as he. tried to capture the storm's scale uh it. has. dropped it has dropped 50. mbars in 10. hours um I apologize this is. just hor Ric. um the wind maximum sustained winds.

are Florida officials have ordered. evacuations across at least 12 counties. and have suspended tolls in order to. keep traffic moving as quickly as. possible what would you say to people. tonight who are saying you know what I'm. going to ride this out I've ridden. others out what what would you say to. people who aren't heaing those. evacuation. orders I can say without any. dramatization whatsoever if you choose. to stay in one of those evacuation areas.

you're going to. die wow I. [Music]. mean today's episode was produced by AA. chv Ricky nety Stella tan Claire tennis. and Olivia n it was edited by Lisa chow. and Lissa Anderson fact check by Susan. Lee contains original music by Marian. Lozano Pat mccusker Alicia bitu Dan.

Powell and Diane Wong and was engineered. by Alysa Moxley and Chris Wood our theme. music is by Jim brunberg and Ben Lans of. wonderly special thanks to Nick Pitman. and Maddie masello. [Music]. [Music]. that's it for the daily I'm Michael.

borro see you tomorrow. [Music].