How Bad Is Drinking for You, Really?

From the New York Times, [music] I'm. Natalie Kroof and this is the daily. [music]. Midway through one of the booziest. holiday weekends of the year, [music] we. re-examine our lovehate relationship. with alcohol. Today, [music]. my colleague Susan Dominus on how bad or. not [music] drinking is for you.

[music]. It's Friday, July 5th. So, you and I are both here to discuss. our relationship to alcohol, a topic. that I think endlessly fascinates us. because for the past several decades, we've gotten conflicting guidance on the. benefits and risks of drinking. And you, Sue, you decided to finally get to the.

bottom of it. Thank you. [laughter]. Well, I tried. I mean, I think a lot of. people do have a lot of confusion. I. know that I feel that way. My friends. and I are talking about it all the time, and I was very happy to have the. opportunity to actually look at it. journalistically. I'm curious what it was that that made. you head down this journalistic path. You know, about a year ago, I have a. dear friend and I kept saying to her, "Hey, let's, you know, get together for.

a drink. How's next Tuesday?" And she. was like a little bit evasive. And. finally, we ended up going for a walk. At which point it became clear that she. was not avoiding me, but she was. avoiding going for a drink. And she was. somebody who didn't drink a ton. She was. like a once a, you know, maybe a drink. with dinner every night person. And she. was trying to go to zero. She was doing. this because she had been hearing. reports on podcasts, headlines that. alcohol was much more dangerous than. previously understood and she just kind.

of got freaked out to be honest and. stopped pretty much altogether. Yeah, I saw those same headlines, some. of them in our newspaper. They were um. hard to miss even if you were trying to. miss them. Yeah, I think that's true. And I guess I. just thought, is it so bad that you need. to stop drinking altogether? Is it. really even that bad that you need to. stop having your one drink a night if. that brings you joy and relaxation at. the end of a stressful workday? Um, I. just felt like it was sort of bizarre. that we didn't have an answer to that.

question, right? And I realized that it was not a. question I could answer just by looking. at the news right now. I think some of. the confusion that we have actually. starts because of research that was. being published in the '9s. And back. then the news was alcohol might actually. be good for you. [music]. There has been for years the belief by. doctors in many countries that alcohol, in particular red wine, reduces the risk. of heart disease. Now it's been all but. confirmed. There was all this research that.

suggested that drinking red wine had a. protective effect on heart health. Right. I remember that. Yeah. There was famously an episode of. 60 Minutes. The wine has a flushing effect. It. removes platelets from the artery wall. in which morally safer holds up a glass. of red wine and says that researchers. are finding that this is actually good. for your health. So the answer to the riddle may lie in. this inviting glass. It was news that was really convenient. for people. They really wanted to hear. that good news. Supposedly drinking red wine is supposed.

to be good for me and I don't feel so. bad if I have, you know, more than one. glass. Oh, I believe it to that's why I drink. it. I'm 61 years old. And wine sales. Red wine [music] sales. in the US apparently went up something. like 40% over the course of the. following year and this is by the way. right at the moment like you know I. think I became a legal drinker in 1991. you know so for my generation this was. an incredibly influential study you know. I actually have a friend who told me. that he worried at one point that he. wasn't drinking enough red wine to get.

those health benefits cuz he wasn't much. of a drinker and he felt guilty about it. I love. [music]. Hi Tim. Hello. Hello. Can you hear me? So, while I was reporting this out, I. called a researcher in Canada named Tim. Stockwell who has studied alcohol's. effects on the body for years and he was. really excited about this research at. the time. So, I kind of embraced it really. I. thought, isn't this great? we don't have.

to tell a really negative story and say. it's all bad for you. Tim was convinced that basically the. research was clear that this was settled. science and he even chastised in a. commentary published in Australia's. leading medical journal people who were. still denying these health benefits as. sort of tin hat conspiracy theorist. types. I likened people who were. skeptics of the health benefits of. alcohol to members of the flat earth.

society and to people who doubted that. men had been on the moon. Um, but clearly that's not the end of the. discussion, right? I mean, the narrative. starts to change at some point. For Tim, that really started to change. not long after he published that. commentary when he got a call from. another researcher named K. Middleton. Filillmore. She sounded a bit upset that. nobody would fund her work on doubting. the protective effect. So I heard her. out. who told him that she had a lot of.

doubts about this research that he. thought was so sound. to bed. the idea they were sick quitters. and you can. so Filillmore focused on how the data. had been categorized in these studies. and she told him that they often. included a category of people called. abstainers people who didn't drink but. that this category also included a group. of people who drank and stopped and they. didn't take into account the fact that. many of the people in this group likely. stopped because they were ill. In fact, Tim calls them the sick quitters. So,

you have this group of non-drinkers that. actually includes a number of former. drinkers and actually potentially sick. former drinkers. That's exactly right. And when you. include them in a data set with other. non-drinkers, it actually makes people. who drink moderately look really healthy. in comparison. And this creates the. illusion that a moderate amount of. alcohol is beneficial. Hm. I have to admit that part of me was. intrigued just those intellectual. curiosity. And Tim was unconvinced but was.

open-minded enough to be curious about. whether he was wrong about all of this. And the two of them actually started. collaborating together. and they got totally into it. I remember. spending hours and hours and hours. They ran the numbers and they came out. in 2006 with really different results. and they showed that most likely Filmer. was right. And when you did indeed. rearrange the data so that the former. drinkers were in a different category, the protective effect of moderate.

alcohol consumption basically. disappeared. This kept pinching myself, you know, if. we really got this right. And to Tim, this was super surprising. So suddenly this settled science is very. unsettled. Yeah. Boy, did we get commentaries and it lit. a bit of a fuse. And not surprisingly, the alcohol industry is not so excited. about these findings and they push back. One very specific thing was a call for a. meeting where researchers were invited.

and K Filmore was invited. A symposium was gathered that was partly. funded by an alcohol industry group. And. the result of this meeting was to. produce a document which basically. summarized all the evidence and. concluded that there were definitely. benefits from drinking alcohol. and they published a summary of the. events afterwards and they concluded. that actually moderate alcohol. consumption did have beneficial effects. and Kay was mad. She felt like banging. her shoe on the table in the meeting.

because she kept saying no I don't agree. I that's wrong. So there was a lot of. resistance. and we kept getting criticism. People. say you got this wrong. You should have. done that. So each time we go back and. get more studies. So Kay Fillmore, Tim's research partner. actually passed away in 2013. But Tim continued on with the research. into the health impact of alcohol. And. in 2023, he and his colleagues published. a massive, massive study. It was the most comprehensive, the.

largest study. I think we had close to 5. million individuals represented. which found that not only does drinking. moderately not have protective effects. on your health, but in fact it increases. your risk of all cause mortality, which. is to say dying of pretty much anything. Could be a car crash, could be disease. And that's true for women when they. drink even just a little bit less than.

two drinks a day. And for men, that's. true at just about over three drinks a. day. So the idea was that no amount of. drinking is good for you. That's the. most important takeaway. And at not such. high levels, you do start to see this. increased risk. I mean, it it kind of. sounds like we're going from alcohol in. the beginning being portrayed as. essentially a health food to now it. being a public menace. Yes, I think one can interpret it that. way and it certainly felt that way.

obviously to a lot of people when they. read it. Many many cancer doctors always. did disagree with the idea that you know. alcohol could be protective there. It. was always known that drinking increased. your risk of breast cancer, of. esophageal cancer in very real ways, but. I think that was underappreciated by the. public. Like lots of surveys always. found that that information was not. penetrating the same way that like red. wine is good for your heart had. penetrated. So this was now switching. the public messaging pretty. dramatically.

Right. And this time, for whatever. reason, their warnings about alcohol. seem to have actually landed a little. harder in the public consciousness. I. mean, I'm thinking about your friend, for example, about myself and a lot of. people I know who are now wondering what. to do with that information. Yeah, that is for sure. You know, I was. curious to hear what Tim thought about. all this and how he was thinking about. it, how he thought we could be thinking. about it. I kind of thought that Tim was. going to have the zeal of the convert,

you know, that he having been somebody. who had reassured everyone that alcohol. was just fine for them in moderation, that now he was going to kind of go to. the other extreme and be very finger. wagging about how bad alcohol was for. you. and basically tell me that I shouldn't. drink at all. [music]. But in fact, so do you not drink at all. anymore or is it very occasional for. you? Oh, I just I'm a light drinker. I'm. always astonished how I'm prepared to. have 10 minutes of pleasure to feel a.

little rubbish for several hours the. next day. and yet we all do it. I mean, you know, and so. it was really interesting when I got. into it with him and tried to talk to. him about how he understood the risk. One of the things I believe is that we. should find ways of helping people grasp. the scale of the risk and how it. compares with things they can get their. head around. What I learned was really a much more. nuanced picture.

[music]. We'll be right back. So, this new nuanced picture of. drinking, it sounds potentially very. appealing. Tell me what it looks like. Well, I've been thinking a lot in my. reporting about how to help people.

understand risk in a way that is not. abstract, you know, in a way that they. can grasp and apply to their lives in a. meaningful way. And there are several. different ways that you can think about. risk. So, for example, we often talk about how a certain. behavior might increase your risk of a. poor health outcome by a certain percent. or by a certain factor. And so what does. that look like in terms of alcohol? Let's say I drink six drinks a week,

which I kind of do, versus someone who. has a drink or two a week. Tim told me. that by having those six drinks, I've. increased my risk of dying prematurely. from some alcohol-related cause by a. factor of 10. compared to someone who just has like a. drink or two a week. Now that sounds really dramatic like. whoa I'm increasing my risk of dying. from some you know alcohol-related cause. by 10 times. right. but even still it turns out that if I.

drink those six drinks a week the risk I. was facing of dying from an alcohol. related cause was still quite low on. average that lifetime risk is like 1%. M. so for me at this stage in my life my. risk of dying generally is pretty low. Knock on wood. And so really any. incremental added risk on top of that is. going to be quite low as well. Okay, if. I'm getting this right, if you drink six. drinks a week, you are 10 times more.

likely to die from any alcoholrelated. cause than someone who drinks less, which sounds bad, but in reality, that. just brings your risk up to 1% total. So, you're still relatively unlikely to. die from those causes. That's right. Now. that number when you apply it across the. population, it really is meaningful. because if many many people's risk of. dying goes up by a factor of 10, that is. a lot of people dying. But on an. individual level, some people might.

still find that number reassuring. And. there's other ways to think about it on. an individual level, too, to think about. risk that way. Tim told me that you. could also look at risk in terms of. trying to figure out the amount of time. that for example drinking a certain. number of drinks might shave off your. life on average. Like what is drinking. due to life expectancy? Okay, that seems like a great question. and I for one really want to know the. answer. Basically, he told me that for.

people who have about two drinks a week, they're going to lose on average less. than one week of their life, for people. who have around seven drinks a week, they're going to shave maybe 2 and 1/2. months off the end of their life. H. Now, when you get to five drinks a day, now you're talking about upwards of 2. years of lost life. All these things, to. be sure, are averages. So, you know, it's not like you can take that. information and and go to the bank. You. could be the person who loses many more.

years of life or weeks of life or months. of life, but this is the average, right? And I mean, if you're someone. who's a more casual drinker, you're. drinking, okay, seven drinks a week, that's a, you know, a glass of wine. every night with dinner, maybe we're. talking about two and a half months of. life shaved off here. I'm wondering, Sue, what you thought when you heard. that? I was like, great. I was extremely. relieved. I thought, I'm not going to. like, no, I'm just not going to worry. about this. If I want to reach for a. glass of wine, I'm going to it's just.

not something I need to think about in. this kind of way. I mean, that's kind of what I was. thinking, too. Yeah, I understand that. I mean, again, when you take those weeks and you apply. them across a population, that is many, many, many, many, many years of lost. life across a population, but for you. individually, maybe it's not that bad. And that's how I started to think about. it until I started to really dig into my. own relationship to alcohol. What were. the benefits of it for me? What were my. own other risks? You know, risk is very.

individual. And I myself know already. that I am at increased risk for breast. cancer because of my family history. So. given that I already have an elevated. risk of breast cancer and we know that. alcohol consumption is linked to. increased risks of breast cancer, do I. want to compound whatever risk I already. have that's higher than I would like it. to be? That actually doesn't make that. much sense to me personally. And obviously alcohol is very addictive.

You never know if you're going to become. the person who suffers from an alcohol. addiction. And obviously that is. something that ruins many people's. lives. Right. So you're saying that obviously. alcohol is not the only risk that we. have and and we kind of have to look at. it in context of all the other health. risks we have as individuals which might. really complicate things. It's not just. those say 2 and 1/2 months off your life. that we're talking about here. Yeah, I do think it's complicated and it.

gets even more complicated if you go. beyond thinking about the risks of. alcohol to yourself, but if you think. about it in terms of the collective. harms. So, we know that alcohol. consumption is highly associated with. all kinds of social ills with sexual. assault, domestic violence, dangerous. driving. Obviously, like alcohol, you. know, is present in a shockingly high. percentage of these kinds of incidents. And even when you have not that much. alcohol, like let's say you have a drink.

or two, you know, you are more likely to. make that dangerous left turn or, you. know, not to notice that the baby has a. marble in her mouth. So, it's not just. the risk that you pose to yourself, but. also what is the increased risk of your. harming someone else. At this point, it sounds like you're. trending pretty negatively toward. drinking. I mean, I can go there all the way. You. know, I clearly have thought through. what those negative outcomes are from. drinking, but I also, as I've been. reporting this piece, have really had a.

lot of conversations with people about. how, you know, alcohol is not just a. negative cultural force. Just a couple. of nights ago, I was talking to some. friends who are both doctors, and they. were really encouraging me to remember. the friendships that have come over, you. know, a few drinks. I mean, certainly. many many romances may never have gotten. off the ground without a drink or two. One friend of mine pointed out to me. that like alcohol actually has played a. pretty big role in like lots of historic. international diplomacy.

and that's because it helps people lower. their inhibitions and that can be bad. but can also mean leaving behind some of. your worries or it can make you more um. open to something new or to connecting. You know, there's the drink after work. I remember in my 20s being in a work. environment that was we were not in a. great place. There wasn't a lot of. bonding going on. A lot of people were. new and young and one night we all went. out and everybody had a drink together. And like obviously things can go very.

wrong in those kinds of situations, but. in this case I actually do think it kind. of changed the office dynamic for the. better going forward, right? I mean there's the long summer. days by the pool, the long holiday. weekends with friends, the karaoke. Yeah. I think that is exactly right. I. mean also, you know, for some people. really fine wine, I mean, this is not. me. I can't tell the difference among. any of them, but really fine wine. represents for some people the height of. what human civilization can produce. You. know, there's just this absolute. appreciation for the taste of wine. So,

Sue, you've gone on this pretty big. journey here. It sounds like you have. weighed your individual risks against. these collective harms. You've looked at. the idea that alcohol has some benefits. in your life. Where does all of this. land for you? You know, I didn't feel like, okay, I. must abstain altogether forever, but I. did end up resolving to drink less. I, you know, I'm a drink a night kind of. person, and I definitely resolved to cut.

back. And yet, I am surprised to find it. is hard to cut down on my drinking. You. know, for example, not too long ago, I I. ended up at a party and it was like a. really hot night and I had resolved not. to drink because I'd had a drink the. night prior. But when I got there, I. actually could not find a non-alcoholic. beverage and it's a million degrees out. There's only wine and mixed drinks. available. Like, what are you going to.

do? I had a drink, right? And at the. same time, I think part of why I didn't. resist even further was that it was a. party and I was a little bit nervous and. I felt a little bit better with that. drink in my hand. Yeah. Your plan to. drink less in that moment sounds like it. ran squarely up against both practical. realities and social conditioning, centuries of social conditioning around. how we interact with each other. Yeah. And I started to see drinking as.

almost something that was quite when. people reach for a drink at a party, for. example, it's a sign that they are. looking to connect. You know, it's that. they're looking to let down their guard, that they're looking to enjoy the. socializing that's happening there. And. when people reach for a drink, that's. another way of saying like, I want to be. in this moment with you and turn off the. part of my brain that is worrying or. self-conscious. And then you think, okay, but like, wouldn't it also be. great if we could all somehow be.

comfortable enough in our skins to be. able to have those moments to let down. our guards, to be our most, you know, relaxed selves without a drink. Yeah. It's like on the one hand, seeing. someone reach for a drink, it kind of. points to their vulnerability, their. desire to connect in that moment. And on. the other hand, um should we all just be. investing more in therapy maybe than. drinking? [gasps]. Uh it's probably better for our health. for sure.

I think what's really eyeopening, Sue, about your reporting here is that it. gives us an answer to this question. that's been asked and unanswered for so. long that's been nagging at us. And. that's what is the price of the pleasure. that alcohol gives so many of us and do. we want to pay it? Well, for one thing, I I think I've come. to understand that this really is, you. know, a pretty personal decision that. people have to make kind of for.

themselves almost on the order of like. how do people think about money or. saving or spending, you know, and. everybody also has different tolerance. for risk. So, I mean, for me personally, I started out this reporting partly. because I just had this like general. vague bad sense whenever I was reaching. for a glass of wine. [music]. But now, I feel in a funny way a little. bit more in control of that choice. [music].

Thank you so much, Sue. Oh, my pleasure. Thanks for having me on. the show. [music]. [music]. [music].

[music]. We'll be right back. Here's. what else you should know. Today, President Biden spoke to a group of. [music] Democratic governors on. Wednesday, telling them he was staying. in the race, but needed to get more. sleep, work fewer hours, and avoid. events after 8:00 [music] p.m. The. meeting with the governors was intended. to reassure more than two dozen of.

Biden's most important allies that he's. still in command of his job [music] and. capable of mounting a strong campaign. against Trump. Several governors were. disappointed there wasn't more. discussion about whether Biden should. continue in the race, even though none. of them directly told Biden [music] that. he should drop out. And Britain's Labor Party was projected. to win a landslide victory [music] in. the UK election on Thursday, ousting the. Conservative Party that has been in. power for the last 14 years. If.

projections are correct, it would be the. worst defeat for the Tory party [music]. in its nearly 200year history. Many. voters said they were fed up with the. government because of the struggling. economy, increasing dysfunction within. the public health care system, [music]. and a rise in immigration. Kier Starmer, who's set to become the. new prime minister, [music] has promised. a fiscally prudent center-left. government, quote, in the service of. working people.

[music]. Today's episode was produced by Stella. Tan and Diana Wyn with help from Alex. Stern. It was edited by Michael Benois. with help [music] from Lisa Chow. Contains original music by Diane Wong, Pat [music] McCusker, Marian Lozano, and. was engineered by Chris Wood. Special. thanks to Alice Callahan. Our theme. music is by Jim [music] Brunberg and Ben. Lansberg of Wonderly.

[music]. [music]. That's it for [music] the daily. I'm. Natalie Kitroof. See you on Monday.