Harris Takes the Lead in Key States

from The New York Times I'm Michael. Bavaro this is the. daily a major new poll from the times. finds that vice president kamla Harris. has transformed the 2024 presidential. race and is now leading president Trump. in three of the most crucial. Battleground. States today my colleague Nate con. explains why Harris is benefiting so. much from being a new face in an.

election that so many Americans had. [Music]. dreaded it's Tuesday August. [Music]. 13th Nate the times has just completed. our first poll that seeks to understand. the state of this presidential race. since Biden dropped out and kamla Harris. took his place as the Democratic nominee.

everyone understands that that has. changed this race but this poll. attempted to measure by just how much it. changed the race in three of the most. essential swing States so tell us about. the results well we found that the entry. of KL Harris into the race is. fundamentally upended this contest we. pulled Michigan Pennsylvania and. Wisconsin arguably the three most. important Battleground States these are. three states that voted for Obama in. 2012 Trump in 2016 and then flip back to.

Biden in 2020 but that Trump had. generally been leading in in the polling. so far this cycle and if kamla Harris. won all three states she would almost. certainly win the presidential election. and the poll found Harris leading Donald. Trump in all three states by a. four-point margin 50 to 46% a huge swing. in favor of the Democrats in a very. short period of time basically what this. poll found was that she was a game.

changer in those three states that's. right and it is worth saying it's all on. the haris side of things Donald Trump's. ratings are essentially unchanged since. the last time we pulled these states in. fact his favorability rating ticked up a. little bit wow but by replacing Joe. Biden who was really unpopular with KLA. Harris who in this poll is viewed. favorably by 49 or 50% of Voters in. every state they have completely changed. what had been the basic Dynamic of this.

election until now voters had been. agonizing between two candidates they. didn't like and we don't know what would. have happened if we had played the Biden. Trump matchup to the end but we do know. that as of July when voters were. choosing between those two unpalatable. options more of them were choosing Trump. now they don't have to at least for now. they like Harris more than they like. Trump and so she has the lead so let's. talk about who has rallied around Harris. once Biden got out of the race and how.

that helps explain why she's suddenly in. the lead in these three states Harris's. biggest gains are coming from the. demographic groups that traditionally. vote Democratic but that Joe Biden had. struggled to consolidate throughout much. of the Year take black voters the poll. finds her up 81 to13 among black voters. across these three states that's a lot. better than Biden had been in polls this. year I mean we had done some polls that. found Joe Biden in the among black.

voters at times that feels really. important me because black voters are a. group that helped power Biden to victory. in 2020 in States like Georgia it's a. group of Voters that Trump has been very. heavily focused on and one of the groups. that appeared most open to defecting. from the Democratic side to the. Republican side because of trump so. those kinds of gains feel very. meaningful that's right and another. group that sort of has those same. characteristics as young voters the poll. found in Harris head by 15 points among.

18 to 29 year olds in these three states. it's not the best number Democrats have. ever produced among young voters to be. frank but it's a lot better than Joe. Biden for much of the year and you these. are two groups where it's easy to see. why she would do a little bit better. than Joe Biden she's much younger than. he is she's black he's white she's also. a woman and it's worth noting that she's. doing better among women than Joe Biden. had been doing in our previous surveys. what's maybe more surprising though is. she's still at least holding her own.

among older voters among men among white. voters she's not doing better than Biden. was in these polls but she's not doing. worse so she's adding a lot of strength. among traditionally Democratic. constituencies without giving up much if. any ground among the groups that you. might expect to be relative weak points. for her you said that a lot of this. seemingly across theboard Improvement in. the numbers for Harris seems to be. driven by the fact that both Trump and.

Biden are not especially popular. candidates and of course now Biden's out. of the race so I guess my question is. how much are Harris's gains reflective. not just of Biden or Trump's problems. but of her own popularity it's. definitely a reflection of our own. popularity and standing on every. question that we asked people say that. they like terrorist they say she's. intelligent they say she's honest they. say she cares about you I think the more.

interesting question is why I mean just. as recently as a few weeks ago a. majority of Americans said they had an. unfavorable view of kamla Harris right I. even came on the show and we talked. about all of her different political. liabilities and challenges and how bad. her 2019 campaign was we did and now all. of a sudden kamla Harris is broadly. liked and popular and it's happened. extremely quickly and I think that there. are really a mix of two basic reasons. that this can happen one is that she's. really changed people's views about them. because she's made this brand new.

impression with the help of great media. coverage or she's benefiting from this. new contrast this comparison with Joe. Biden and the burst of pent up. Democratic energy from people who have. been yearning for something different I. think it's probably a little bit of both. I mean I was just explaining to a friend. recently that it's sort of like the. country just had a breakup with Joe. Biden they've been in this relationship. for years that they weren't happy with. and maybe they didn't even know how. unhappy they were with this relationship. but now they've had this breakup they're.

newly liberated there's this incredible. sense of new opportunity and now comes. along kamla Harris and after their first. few dates with kamla the country is. thrilled this is quite a metaphor and to. indulge it a little bit further when. such a date between Americans and kamla. Harris was hypothetical because she. wasn't the nominee when she was just. vice president voters views of her were. less generous but once this breakup with. Biden happens all that pent up desire.

for change that feeling of Liberation. you just mentioned it overwhelms any. previous doubts a lot of Voters had. about her right and you know we'll find. out whether this is real and whether the. country is going to marry her in a few. months but for the moment I think that. Harris is enjoying this really coveted. place in American politics where voters. are able to invest most of their hopes. and their wishes for what they want to. see in a candidate in this new figure h. you know in polling it's a little bit.

like something called a generic. candidate or a generic Democrat can you. just explain that yeah I might sound a. little insulting this compare kis to a. generic Democrat but it's really not in. a poll a pollster might ask would you. rather vote for the Democrat or Donald. Trump the Democrat is unnamed it's not a. real person and the unnamed generic. candidate this is true for both parties. almost always fares better than a named. candidate and because they're not.

burdened with all of the real world. imperfections that actual real. candidates have and I think that's sort. of what's happened for kamla Harris over. the last few weeks is she's running as a. broadly appealing mainstream Democratic. candidate and there are a bunch of Good. Feelings around her and she hasn't. really been defined either way and so. voters are piling their hopes to support. someone other than Donald Trump into. their idea of her right now and it's. giving her a clear lead so we should.

think of KLA Harris especially in the. context of a very short election in. which she's suddenly the surprise. replacement Democratic nominee as. basically the platonic ideal of a. democrat in this moment who almost in a. real sense does occupy that spot you. just described of the generic Democrat. it's an unusual position and even though. the word generic might sound bad it. sounds like a pretty ideal one it is and. that's how she's been running her.

campaign for the last few. weeks oh it's so good to be back good. evening and you can see that if you. watch her stump speech across our nation. we are witnessing a fullon assault on. hard fought hard one freedoms and rights. she really sounds like a pretty typical. mainstream boilerplate Democrat and the. freedom of a woman to make decisions. about her own body and not have her.

government telling her what to do she. talks about abortion she talks about. building up the middle class a future. with Affordable Health Care affordable. child care and paid. leave she talks about how we need to go. into the future we're not going to go. back she talks about freedom and we're. not going back because Nevada we fight. for the. future some of the stuff is linked to. her biography right that she's a.

prosecutor but most of what she says. could be said by just about any Democrat. so Georgia today I ask you so Nevada. today I ask you so Arizona I ask are you. ready to make your voices. heard and when we fight and when we. fight and when we fight we. win and you know what it's a plausibly. winning strategy to just be a broadly. acceptable mainstream Democratic.

candidate I suspect there are going to. be some listeners some Democrats and. non-d Democrats who listen to this. conversation and say how can you call. kamla Harris generic she's the first. black South Asian woman major party. nominee yeah I think it's a fair point. in a lot of respects K Harris is not a. generic Democrat but that may be part of. the reason why it makes sense for her to. run as a relatively mainstream Democrat. she's already distinctive to millions of. Americans she's going to look really.

different from Joe Biden and Donald. Trump and the other people who have. dominated our politics for the last. eight years and so already being so. distinct I think that gives her all the. more incentive to run as a very. mainstream and typical Democrat if. there's any risk for Harris it's that if. she doesn't Define herself as anything. in particular the Donald Trump Campaign. Will Define her instead. [Music]. there's no way that KLA Harris will be a.

generic candidate come November right. people are going to know who KLA Harris. is and if they do then she won't be a. generic Democrat anymore she will be a. named candidate with all the same. liabilities as every other Democrat and. that might be a much more difficult. challenge for her in November. [Music].

we'll be right. back Nate I'm curious based on this poll. what a not generic or much less generic. version of a Harris candidacy is likely. to look like over the next 80 or so days. of this campaign either in her hands or. in the hands of Donald Trump well I. think it's hard to say what it would.

look like in her hands after all she's a. blank slate she could Define herself. however she wants I think it's worth. noting that she didn't choose to Define. herself as a moderate by selecting. someone like Josh sairo as her vice. president but that doesn't mean that. she's not going to move to the sener at. some point it doesn't mean she might not. stake out bold Progressive positions. later I think either way whatever she. chooses to do the Democratic Convention. is clearly her opportunity to Define. herself more clearly in the eyes of the. public however that may be mhm in.

Trump's hands I think it's pretty easy. to see the kinds of directions they. might go They're either going to define. or is too far to the left or if they. think they can't do that because she. succeeded in positioning herself in the. center they're going to say she's a. phony. flip-flopper and if they do choose to go. after her on the issues the poll. suggests that there are some. opportunities for them the poll says. that voters trust Trump more than Harris. on the economy and on immigration two. issues where Trump has had an advantage. for a long time and that rank really.

highly in the minds of the public and. also issues where Harris has some. vulnerabilities like when she took a. role on immigration early in her tenure. as vice president and the poll also. shows that 44% of Voters think Harris is. too liberal or too Progressive now it's. not a majority but it does suggest that. this starts out as a area of relative. vulnerability for her that the Trump. campaign can try and reinforce as the. race gets underway but you know what. it's worth stepping back and just noting. they haven't successfully focused on any.

of these things right over the last 3. weeks and we can go through all the. different themes that the Trump campaign. has tried to work through that Donald. Trump himself has worked through but. they've been scattershot at best and a. lot of them are off topic like is KLA. Harris black or is she Indian right this. was in fact the focus of Monday's. episode of our show Jonathan Swan was. walking through the kind of failures of. the Trump campaign to come up with any. coherent strategy for challenging KLA. Harris's r. and I guess the way you would interpret.

that is that he has failed to make her. less generic yeah absolutely he has. passed on the opportunity to Define. Harris when the Public's views of her. were most malleable I mean when I think. back about the biggest things that. they've managed to talk about I think. more about what they've said about Tim. Walls not about KLA Harris you remember. that day when the stock market fell and. they talked about comma crash or. whatever right you know there was that. but her being too far to the left her.

positions on immigration or the economy. that hasn't broken through and they can. still try but they've clearly made it. much more challenging for. themselves Nate former president Trump. never really struggled to negatively. Define Joe Biden do we suspect it's only. a matter of time before he lands on a. somewhat effective approach to KLA. Harris you know I don't think it's. inevitable that Trump will land on an. effective approach here and I would.

actually push back a little bit on the. idea that Trump found it easy to Define. Joe Biden in. 20120 Trump largely failed to Define Joe. Biden in a negative light that's a big. part of why Joe Biden managed to win the. public independently reached the view. that Joe Biden was too old to be. president and was an ineffective. president in this campaign Donald Trump. didn't need to do anything in order for. the public to reach that conclusion and. our polling showed that years ahead of. where we are today and similarly in 2016.

I mean Donald Trump undoubtedly attacked. Hillary Clinton But there again was it. really Donald Trump succeeding at. characterizing Hillary Clinton as being. corrupt or a candidate of the elite in. the establishment or was that something. that was already in place at the time. Donald Trump ran I would argue that that. was already mostly in place and that. Donald Trump wasn't responsible for that. kamla Harris it's worth noting doesn't. have those kind of obvious built-in. liabil. H just explain that well she's not too.

old to be president she's 59 right she. doesn't start the campaign with an FBI. investigation or 20 years of personal. baggage and it's worth noting that. although the Trump campaign does have. some material to work with in terms of. you know some previous left views on the. issues there's very little so far in the. way of negative stories about her. personally like the sort of deep. character problems that large portions. of the public believed about Hillary. Clinton in 2016 or about Joe Biden's.

capacity to be president today comml. Harris doesn't have those kind of. liabilities right now and I think it's. really important a lot of Americans they. don't just vote on the issues they care. about character they make judgments. about whether they think someone is a. good person or a bad person they're. drawn to the Vibes as they say and a lot. of those things are being driven by. factors other than whether kamla Harris. flip-flopped on fracking they're driven. by these more basic traits about the.

candidates and it could be a serious. problem for Donald Trump that there. isn't a character or trait-based. Dimension to the major attack against. KLA Harris what that tells me and I'm. curious what you think about this is. that Harris has really benefited from. being a pretty lowprofile vice president. under Biden even with the favorability. problems she had as VP they weren't. deeply grounded in much exposure to the. public. and on top of that she's then tossed.

into this presidential race at the very. last minute without a long campaign to. Define her and I think a lot of people. wondered was that going to be a. disadvantage for her make it really. impossible for her to mount a serious. campaign in such a short period of time. and it's turning out to be all of it an. advantage absolutely I mean I as soon as. she got into the race and as soon as. Democrats decided that they were going. to get behind her and move past Joe. Biden this. Title Wave of enthusiasm has swept her.

up and it's been enough to completely. change the Public's view of her now I. think it is worth cautioning of course. that if the Public's views of her can. change greatly in 3 weeks they could. change back the other way I don't think. we should be sure that the Public's view. of her now is somehow set in stone I. think that the overarching lesson here. is that this is a candidate who's still. in the early phases of being defined but. point it couldn't have gone too much.

better for her and I'm curious should we. assume that if K Harris is now leading. Trump in the three swing states that. this poll covered Michigan Wisconsin. Pennsylvania that she might be leading. Trump as well in the key swing states in. the sunbell that the times hasn't yet. pulled since she became the nominee and. I'm thinking about States like Arizona. Nevada Georgia North Carolina yeah it's. entirely possible now Joe Biden was. Trail kill in Donald Trump by a lot in.

those sunbell States cuz he was so weak. among young and non-white voters but. those are exactly the groups that the. poll shows KLA Harris is making her. biggest. gains so it seems entirely possible that. she's made disproportionate gains in. those sunb Belt states whether that's. enough for her to lead versus it just. being a dead heat or slightly behind I. don't know but I would expect the race. in those states to be very close if she. has any discernable advantage in the. northern battlegrounds. right and it kind of feels that what.

this poll tells us is that there has. been a transformation of this race and. that where Trump was once winning he's. at the very least now in a very. competitive tossup race for president is. that how you see it that's basically how. I view it and if anything Harris has an. edge in the polling. today whether that'll last until. November is obviously a completely. different question but to extent the. Trump campaign had crafted its strategy.

around trying to defeat Joe Biden among. young voters and and black voters and by. capitalizing on a deep dissatisfaction. with a candidate who seemed incapable of. winning the presidency that strategy is. now out the window they have a. completely different race against the. candidate who right now is pretty. popular with voters who represents. change in her own right and who now has. the lead in the most important. Battleground. States so this is absolutely. a winable race for Democrats now and.

it's a completely different picture than. the one we had a month. [Music]. ago well Nate thank you very much we. appreciate it thanks for having. me we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know. today the independent presidential. campaign of Robert F Kennedy Jr was.

dealt a major blow on Monday when a. judge ruled that his petition to get on. New York's ballot was invalid because. Kennedy had used a sham address to. maintain his New York residency if it. stands the ruling would kick Kennedy off. New York's ballot and could endanger his. efforts to get on the ballot in all 50. states Kennedy has vowed to appeal the. ruling and. after an audacious incursion into.

Russian territory Ukraine's Army now. claims to control two doen communities. there covering nearly 400 square miles. the incursion is an embarrassing setback. for Russia that could benefit Ukraine in. two ways first by drawing Russian forces. away from Ukraine and second by serving. as a bargaining chip for Ukraine in. future peace negotiations with.

Russia today's episode was produced by. Shannon ly Carlos PRI and CLA tennis. gter it was edited by Lisa chow and. Devin Taylor contains original music by. Dan Powell and Rowan misto and was. engineered by Alyssa Moxley our theme. music is by Jim brunberg and Ben lurk of. wonderly. [Music].

that's it for the daily I'm Michael. Babar see you tomorrow. [Music].