Hamas’s Bloody Arithmetic

from New York Times I'm Michael aaro. this is the. [Music]. daily. today to much of the outside world. hamas's decision to murder hundreds of. Israelis and trigger a war that has. since killed many thousands of its own. people looks like a historic. miscalculation one that could soon. result in the destruction of Hamas.

itself my colleague Ben hubard has been. reporting on that decision and the. deliberate. calculations that went into. [Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. it it's Tuesday November.

[Music]. 14th then since October 7th since Hamas. breached Israel's border and killed 1200. people according to Israel the vast. majority of them. civilians I think a really important. question has largely gone unanswered. which is why why undertake such a. horrifying terror attack that entailed.

the mass murder of non-combatants and. why do that when Hamas had to understand. on some level that it would trigger an. overwhelming reprisal from Israel that. would end the lives of so many. Palestinian civilians which is exactly. what's happened this was a highly. planned and highly organized attack that. clearly had a strategy behind it so what. was it that's what I set out to. understand after the attack I think.

everybody was asking that question of. why would Hamas which sort of ruling in. Gaza and has this control and you know. why would they suddenly do something. like this that was actually described by. one of my colleagues as a suicide attack. on itself like basically was the. movement trying to destroy. itself and so we wanted to sort of. figure out you know how did Hamas get to. the point in terms of capabilities where. it could launch this which was a much. much more sophisticated and complicated. attack than we ever seen them carry out.

before despite the decades and decades. that they've been fighting Israel and. then also why like how did they get to. the point where they made the decision. that of the kinds of attacks that they. could do for whatever it is that they. wanted to achieve why this MH not a very. easy thing to answer right it's. completely unrealistic that we would be. able to call up the leaders of Hamas and. Gaza who plotted and carried out this. attack I mean certainly by the time that. we were asking this question they were. hiding away in their bunkers somewhere.

getting ready to fight Israel which was. making it very clear it was going to do. a ground incursion so right you know. there's sort of no way to talk to these. people but Hamas has leaders in other. places you have the people in Gaza who. sort of run the show there and then they. have people from their more political. operations who are based in other parts. of the Middle East there's a number of. them who are in Beirut there's a number. of them who in Qatar so I packed my bags. and left Istanbul and first went to be.

with the understanding that you could. meet with him I think it would surprise. people to think that you can just meet. with the senior leaders of Hamas yeah I. mean they're sort of like political. people from any other political party. they have offices and they have AIDS and. you call them up and you take an. appointment and you figure out where. you're going to meet them and you you. know go to the office and so we got in. touch with a number of them and they. said yeah yeah come in and we'll have a. chat and they told us to meet them at. this restaurant that's kind of well. known in the suburbs of Beirut and we.

actually got in their car and they drove. us to this sort of compound where we. went in with a sort of big metal gate. that opens when you go in and we went in. and we just basically sat in a room with. some couches and uh we talked and then. few days later I went to Doha capital of. katar sort of on the other side of the. Middle East in the Persian Gulf again we. get in touch with you know the Hamas. officials that we know are there and the. first person that we talked to is was. actually an aid to is who was the the. head of mass and he says well let's meet.

at Sheran the hotel sort of on the. waterfront and so you know I go there. and we meet and have a long chat with. him asking him basically all about sort. of the attack and before the attack and. why the attack and then we actually get. in his car and he drives us to the Hamas. office it's in sort of a nice Villa in. an affluent neighborhood kind of on the. outskirts of the city has a big wall. around it no sign no indication to. anybody coming by sort of who is there. who works there we meet one of the. members of sort of the senior leadership.

body the pullet Bureau KH and again. we're sitting in a large room with you. know couches and somebody brings us tea. and coffee and we start talking and. after you have all these conversations. with these leaders of Hamas what did. they tell you about this question of why. this question that you have come here to. try to understand the logic of this. attack if we can apply that word to what. happened the basic idea that they all. kept coming back to is they felt that.

the Palestinian cause was basically. fading away that there were aspects of. this conflict that were approaching a. point of no return and if they sort of. passed that point then it was all. over and also this feeling that nobody. really cared nobody was really paying. attention or doing anything about it. including the Israelis that the Israelis. just didn't even seem to be thinking. about the Palestinian cause anymore so. they felt that they needed to do. something big they needed to do. something dramatic to blow up the status.

quo they wanted to completely overthrow. the situation in the region and. individual leaders said that they hoped. that this led to a big Regional war that. that was like the ideal outcome and hope. that some new option would emerge from. what came. after so what they're telling you is. they needed in their minds to light a. fire and not a small fire they wanted to.

light a. conflagration and I'm wondering if that. means for them that any death toll on. both sides was therefore worth it well I. asked them about that everybody that I. talked to and they give on pretty much. all counts incredibly unsatisfying. answers when you ask about the civilian. Israelis who were killed in their. communities they basically deny it and. say either it's not true this is Israeli. propaganda or they say that if any. civilians were killed they were killed. in the Crossfire between our Fighters.

and Israeli Security Services and the. military and there's ample evidence that. show that that's just not true there is. evidence and testimony from Israeli. survivors of the attacks there is dash. cam footage from cars that were parked. in places where the attacks took place. there's surveillance footage from. cameras that were posted in the. communities and there's even helmet. cameras that some of the Hamas Fighters. were wearing that were captured by the. Israelis after the fighters were killed.

and so we have that footage as well so. all of this shows that regardless of. what Hamas says the objectives of the. attack were that many of these Fighters. just moov deliberately through these. communities in a very studied way. shooting and killing people on site my. colleagues have done work proving that. they cornered civilians who had taken. shelter inside of bomb shelters and. threw grenades inside to try to kill. them while they were stuck in there and. there's other evidence that they just. lit people's houses on fire fire on top. of them so we know that hamas's denials.

are just not true and when you ask them. about okay well there's big war going on. obviously we see the death toll and Gaza. going up every day these are supposed to. be your people they basically say. whatever Israel does is not our fault. you know we're out here trying to save. the Palestinian cause and if Israel. decides to come back and kill a bunch of. people in Gaza like that's not our. problem so when you take a step back and. look at what they're saying in the. context of this broader goal they just. seem to be saying that all of these. deaths are just necessary cost of this.

blowing up of the status. quo Ben bottom line to accomplish this. objective of abending the status quo for. Hamas for its. leaders it seems like almost any amount. of death would be allowable right in my. conversations with some of the Hamas. leaders there really did not seem to be. a lot of hand ringing about the number. of Civilian deaths that have come about. because of this attack so help us better.

understand how that status quo that. Hamas is so desperate to shatter came to. be and how Hamas decided that it was. willing to go to this length to destroy. it so I found it very useful in trying. to understand how Hamas got to this. point looking at the career of one of. the people who ended up plotting this. attack and this is the head of Hamas in.

Gaza whose name is Yahya senir so what. should we know about him Yahya senoir is. from the first generation of Hamas Hamas. was a Palestinian militant movement. founded in the late 80s that was an. islamist movement that aimed to destroy. Israel with military means and replace. it with a Palestinian State at this time. the Israeli military was occupying the. West Bank and Gaza and Hamas was not. interested in just ending the occupation. of these territories Hamas believe that. the entire state of Israel was an.

occupation MH this sets it apart from. other Palestinian movements that have. negotiated with Israel and accept. Israel's right to exist Hamas never. accepted that and felt that the whole. thing was wrong and that the only. solution was to completely destroy. Israel and replace it with a Palestinian. state right so sinir is from the very. early generation of this movement and. from very early on he's sort of an. internal security guy he's in charge of. looking out for Israeli moles inside of.

the organization and he punishes these. people with such brutality that he's. given the nickname The Butcher of Kan. yunes Kan yunes is a town in Gaza where. he was born and so he was known as The. Butcher of Kan. Yunis so he's an enforcer within Hamas a. violent figure within an already violent. group yes then in 1988 he gets arrested. by the Israelis and he is thrown in jail. for the murder of four Palestinians who. were were alleged collaborators with.

Israel spying inside of the. organization and he's in prison for 22. years and he describes this later as. being very educational he learns to. speak good Hebrew he reads books in. Hebrew and he describes it as being this. great opportunity to really get to know. his enemy to understand Israeli Society. to understand how Israel works and and. how it thinks and clearly this is. because he does expect or hope that. someday he's going to get out of prison.

and that this knowledge is going to come. in. useful he's studying Israel from inside. prison so that he might someday better. understand it sounds like their. weaknesses. right so while he's in jail Hamas. expands as a movement and it becomes. basically notorious for using very very. violent te techniques to try to harm.

Israel in 2007 it gets in a huge fight. with other Palestinian factions inside. of Gaza and ends up taking the place. over and basically exiling the. Palestinian Authority and this puts the. movement in a really new place I mean. this was a movement that was founded to. do military action against Israel and. suddenly it finds itself governing in a. territory I mean it it becomes the deao. government right of a territory that now. has more than 2 million Palestinians and. so instead of just you know wanting to. launch attack and figure out ways to you.

know attack the Israeli military. suddenly they have to think about. infrastructure and how to provide. services for all these people who are. technically under their rule but of. course sinir is in prison and cannot be. a part of this transformation of Hamas. into the governing authority of Gaza yes. so while all this is happening on the. outside senoir is inside learning Hebrew. and getting to know Israel better and. then all of a sudden he gets an. opportunity and basically Hamas gets an. opportunity.

on Sunday Palestinian Fighters used a. tunnel to attack a border post and. kidnap an Israeli soldier in 2006 some. Hamas Fighters pop up from a tunnel on. the Israeli side of the Border. separating Israel from Gaza and they. take a soldier captive and they drag him. back to Gaza and they hold him the 8,500. Palestinians held captive in Israel now. in the spotlight following the militants. capture of the Israeli soldier their. freedom the single demand so far from.

the corporals. captors and there are years of. negotiations and then in 2011 there's an. agreement for a prisoner. swap and in the end Hamas trades this. one Israeli soldier named galad sharit. and they get in return more than a. thousand Palestinians released from. prison it was just before midday that. the first coach load of Palestinian. prisoners came across the Egyptian. border into. Rafa and among them is Yahya senoir.

Yahya senoir is the only one of the. group's top leaders to be freed in the. deal and senoir is one of the biggest. prizes that Hamas gets. out and then he returns to Gaza and he. receives a hero's. [Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. welcome and he does this not just with. this new Israel education that he's. gotten while he was locked up but he.

also of course learns a lesson which is. that Israel will pay dearly to get its. captives released right 1,000. Palestinian prisoners including himself. for a single Israeli soldier. right and so here you know returns this. leader with 22 years in Israeli prison. and he comes back and reintegrates into. Hamas and. begins his further climb up the ranks.

the Palestinian group Hamas has elected. a commander of its armed Wing as overall. leader in Gaza regarded and in 2017 he. actually becomes the top Hamas official. in. [Music]. Gaza and in that role he starts to. transform that branch of the. organization he does things to make the. organization stronger and interestingly. he sends certain messages implying that.

he's actually interested in a kind of. accommodation with Israel huh explain. that well so by by this point Hamas and. Israel have settled into this strange. kind of violent coexistence they're. obviously incredibly hostile parties. violence frequently breaks out in fact. entire Wars break out but there's also a. lot of interaction because Israel. controls almost all of gaza's borders. except you know a small part controlled. by Egypt most of Gaza electricity comes. from Israel most of gaza's commercial.

goods are brought in from Israel and so. just for the place to survive there. needs to be a certain amount of. interaction MH and so this strange. process develops where violence. frequently breaks out and Hamas will. fire Rockets into Israel and try to hit. Israeli towns and military bases and. then Israel responds with air strikes. and sometimes with assassinations of. Hamas leaders inside of Gaza and then. mediators get involved and while they're. trying to work out a ceasefire there's a.

negotiation that's not really about the. larger conflict but sort of about some. of the details of the actual blockade. and you know Hamas is trying to find. ways to loosen up this blockade to allow. more Goods to enter Gaza and over time. senoir ends up giving people in the. Israeli security establishment this. impression that that's actually. something that's important to him that. he actually does want to try to make. life better for the people of Gaza and. it's not just all military all the time.

and then in 2021 there's another war. between Israel and Hamas and after that. there's a negotiation and again Hamas. pushes for a number of things that seem. to be geared towards improving life for. gazin they negotiate tens of millions of. dollars in aid from Qatar to come in. through Israel to Gaza to keep the. economy functioning in the place they. negotiate work permits to try to. increase the number of work permits for. gazans to leave Gaza into Israel to work. M CU there's really not a lot of jobs in.

Gaza and so this is a good thing for the. economy and so you know at another Point. even more recently than that there were. clashes started by other militant. factions in Gaza and Hamas sits out they. sit on the side and so together this. creates this impression on the Israeli. side that I think there's sort of two. prongs to it one is that the Israeli. defense technology is enough to keep G A. contain we have this border fence that. has cameras and it has motion sensors. and it has remote control machine guns. we have an underground wall so there's.

no tunnels and we have Iron Dome which. is the Israeli rocket interception. system and then on top of that they say. well we also have this leader in Gaza. who seems like he doesn't want to get a. bunch of his people killed in yet. another War H it sounds like you're. saying Sino War's conduct and his. messaging is contributing to this. feeling inside Israel that maybe. Gaza and Hamas can be M this can all be. managed right and it's not that anybody.

thinks that they've managed to sort of. solve the long-term conflict with Hass. it's more that okay well we've got this. situation under control that with our. security measures to try to keep them. contained and that if we can keep enough. Aid going in to keep the economy going. along so that people aren't too. miserable that in a way this could keep. things from really blowing. up but meanwhile it's clear to us in. hindsight that senoir was not at all. happy with that status quo and that he.

was covertly working to try to build up. hamas's military capabilities inside of. Gaza well how so well Hamas continues to. build its arsenal of rockets inside of. Gaza they smuggle in the materials that. they need to make them and they build. them inside of Gaza so they're building. up this Arsenal and on a more strategic. level senoir comes in and he repairs the. relationship between Hamas and. specifically with the Hamas military. Wing in Gaza and some of its older.

Regional allies the most important of. these is Iran which had been a funer and. the state supporter of Hamas since the. early days of the movement and also with. Hezbollah the Lebanese militia which is. also dedicated to destruction of Israel. and works closely with Iran to try to. build this sort of network of regional. militias that are out to harm Israel mhm. we know that in recent years number of. Hamas Fighters had been able to get out. of Gaza and travel both to Iran and to.

Lebanon for various kinds of training. and looking back at this attack we. realized they were probably learning new. capabilities that really added a whole. different kind of sophistication to the. kinds of attacks that Hamas was able to. carry out mhm so all these alliances. you're describing that sinir deepens. they're in the service of making. Hamas a stronger more capable fighting. Force yes I mean he clearly knows that.

the battle is not over and it certainly. is clear in hindsight that his end goal. was not to govern Gaza and to try to. improve the life of gazans but he was. very interested in developing the. military capabilities so that he could. find a way to hit Israel in a new and. Powerful. way so what exactly sets the stage for. doing just that hitting Israel in a new. and Powerful way and for doing it when. sinir and Hamas decide to do it on. October 7th.

2023 so when I asked the Hamas leaders. about this this is where they brought up. the idea that the Palestinian cause was. slipping away and they point to a number. of things and these are issues that are. not just important to Hamas these are. issues that are important to all. Palestinians they talk about the most. right-wing government in Israeli history. coming to power and basically not being. at all interested in talking about any. future for the Palestinians they talk. about attacks by settler in the West. Bank on Palestinian communities they.

talk about police raids on the alaka. mosque which is one of the holiest sites. in Islam which is in Jerusalem and has. always been sort of a touchstone for the. Palestinian claim to the city there's. also of course the Israeli blockade of. Gaza which it has enforced since 2007. along with Egypt and also sort of. hanging over this is these normalization. deals that are happening between Israel. and other Arab countries and this idea. that Israel can go around the pal. Palestinians and find peace with the. Arabs without resolving the conflict and.

these are the things that they're. talking about when they're saying you. know we just felt like the cause was. slipping away right because in a sense. the cause has been slipping away right. kind of indisputably Arab countries who. would be natural allies of the. Palestinian cause are signing deals in. which the only previous obstacle had. been the fate of the Palestinian people. and so in signing those deals they're. basically saying they no longer cared. about the Palestinian cause and as you.

just mentioned there are these kind of. daily insults and offenses occurring. that are if you're a. Palestinian extremely upsetting right. and so Hamas basically sees all of this. happening and feels like this causes. slipping away and this is where they get. this idea that we have to do something. and we have to do something big we. cannot let this issue disappear we have. to bring it back to the world's. attention and that's what what gets us. to October. [Music].

7th we'll be right. [Music]. back then what have you learned through. this reporting you have been doing about. how under sinir Hamas planned and. thought about the scope of what became.

the October 7th attack so we know that. they basically felt that the old model. was not going to be good enough that. this idea that they would fire rockets. and try to hit Israeli communities and. whatever no no no this had to be much. much bigger and so they wanted to take. the fight to the Israelis they wanted to. get out of Gaza and not just a few of. them but large numbers of them and they. wanted it to be an incredibly dramatic. attack and so they went by air they went. by land they went by sea they went.

inside of Israeli military bases they. went inside Israeli communities MH and. killed a lot of people and took a lot of. prisoners and they managed to bring a. lot of these hostages back to Gaza and. sinir knows better than anybody how much. The Taking of one Israeli captive can. change the situation right and we know. that when they launched this attack they. were seeking captives they wanted to. find people and bring them back to Gaza. and we also know that this attack was. much much more successful than even its.

plotters had anticipated and so now the. fact that Hamas instead of just one. Israeli captive has somewhere around. 240 it just pushes the entire conflict. into this Uncharted Territory where. nobody really knows what comes next well. let's talk more about the aftermath of. this brutal attack and how Ben in your. reporting you've been trying to. understand whether Hamas did what it set. out to do given the original aims as you.

have described and reported them of. exploding a status quo I mean how should. we think about measuring this idea this. complicated idea that this was to use. hamas's word a. success well I think in the fundamental. sense of setting out to shatter the. state is quo then yeah this accomplished. that Gaza is never going to go back to. what it was I think in terms of the goal. of putting the Palestinian cause back on.

the table I think it was true that not. many people were paying attention to it. just over a month ago and now because of. Israel's ferocious response to the Hamas. attacks and the bombing of Gaza you know. now we're seeing protests coming out all. over the world and different cities in. the US talking about Palestinian rights. in a way that we have not seen before. and there's also this sort of frantic. diplomacy that started and you have US. Secretary of State Anthony blink and. flying around and talking about the.

two-state solution and how to make. progress on it and so the issue is on. the table in a way that it was not. before this attack MH and then in terms. of this idea of sparking this big. Regional war that has not happened at. least not to the extent that Hamas had. hoped there has been fighting on the. Lebanese border with Hezbollah there. have been attacks in Iraq but we have. not seen this sort of huge Uprising and. the rest of the s kind of joining the. cause to come and and try to help Hamas.

destroy Israel then that feels important. to dwell on for just a moment if hamas's. militant allies in the Middle East. Hezbollah for example don't become more. involved in this conflict will that be a. signal that the Palestinian cause is not. likely to stay top of mind for very long. and that ultimately one of the main. objectives of October 7th will have. failed. I mean one of the most surprising things.

I think for me about all of this is that. Iran and its Regional militias including. Hamas had been talking for a long time. about how they had built this axis of. resistance and how they were much more. integrated and they were sharing. technology and sharing information and. there's this idea that they had put out. that if there was a war against Israel. all the pieces would fall into place and. it would be like this big sort of. militant Voltron that would come. together and fight Israel and that's not. what happened. I was quite surprised in the reporting.

that we don't have any indications that. Hamas coordinated this attack with. anybody or that they let anybody know. that it was coming hezbollah's response. was quite cautious at the very beginning. they're now clashing with Israel on the. border but they've done it in sort of a. controlled way to keep it from. escalating into a bigger war and so it. sort of raises this whole question of. this idea of this big Regional militia. Network well maybe it's not as. coordinated as we thought I mean if. Hamas is is actually going to be the one. to pull the plug on this big war and.

these other guys don't actually want to. join it in the same way that Hamas is. doing it then maybe this network is not. as tight as we expected it. was so yes Hamas has put the question of. the Palestinians back on people's minds. whether it's demonstrators or like. blinkin diplomats but to what end I mean. ideally from the point of view of H. the end is a Palestinian State and the.

elimination of Israel it seems like. Kamas is no closer to that now than they. were before October 7th so in hamas's. mind what is supposed to be on the other. side of the status quo that's gone other. than Israeli death and Israeli suffering. and Palestinian death and Palestinian. suffering on an enormous. scale in my talks with the Hamas leaders.

there was really no sense of a grand. plan for what comes next they definitely. wanted to hit Israel as hard as they. could and they wanted to hit Israel. inside of Israel and they were not. particularly concerned about what sort. of you know response this would bring. and what it would mean to the people of. Gaza it was that the attack somehow. would be enough and would open up some. new way now that we're 5 weeks into I. think it's also worth pointing out that.

Israel doesn't appear to have a grand. plan either the stated goal is to. destroy Hamas and Israel can probably. make a lot of progress on that they. could kill a lot of the Hamas leaders. they can degrade its military. capabilities but then what there's not. really any plan for who's going to run. Gaza once this is all over and so where. does all this get us I mean I think you. know it's difficult to tell the future. but there's there's a few possibilities. one is that the violence gets so bad and.

destruction gets so great that people. get sort of disgusted with it and decide. that there has to be some new Way. Forward there has to be a new way to try. to figure out how to keep this cycle. from. continuing but it's also sadly possible. that Israel will go in and do whatever. it feels that it needs to do in Gaza and. the world could move on and and people. could go back to forgetting about the. Palestinians and you know we could end.

up in a kind of status quo like we had. before but one that's even worse for the. people of. Gaza and Israel has been trying to. destroy Hamas for a long time and this. time they may make a lot of progress. they may kill a lot of their leaders and. they may degrade their military. capabilities but there's still going to. be 2 million Palestinians living in Gaza. and most of them are children and after. all the trauma of living through a war. like this is just very hard to imagine. that they're going to grow up and feel.

like they want to live peacefully next. door with Israel and it's certainly not. hard to imagine that some other. organization could come up and that it's. not going to have a hard time finding. recruits right what you're describing is. a potential new status quo replacing. this shattered status quo that is worse. for the people in Gaza and in theory. potentially worse for. Israel yes I think that's the worst case.

scenario for how this could all. [Music]. end well thank you Ben we appreciate it. thank. [Music]. you we'll be right. back.

here's what else you need to know day. with the US government set to run out of. money at midnight Friday the new. Republican house Speaker conservative. Mike Johnson has proposed a temporary. funding plan that so far is drawing. support from Democrats and opposition. from Johnson's fellow farri. Republicans that raises the possibility. that John 's first major piece of. legislation A continuing resolution.

known as a CR will only win passage with. the support of house Democrats a reality. that doomed Johnson's predecessor former. house Speaker Kevin McCarthy for now I. am pleased that speaker Johnson seems to. be moving in our Direction by in a. speech from the senate floor on Monday. the chamber's Democratic leader Chuck. Schumer praised Johnson's plan I've said. on on multiple occasions that if we're. going to work together to keep the.

government open speaker Johnson will. have to avoid pushing steep Cuts or. poison pills that Democrats can't. support and after a series of. embarrassing Revelations about. undisclosed gifts and real estate deals. by the justices the US Supreme Court has. for the first time adopted a formal code. of ethics that requires greater. transparency to the public unlike like. Lower Court judges the justices of the. Supreme Court have never been bound to a.

code of conduct given their special. status in the US. Constitution but so far it's unclear how. the ethics code will actually be. enforced today's episode was produced by. Mary Wilson AA chv and Rob zipco it was. edited by paig cowt with help from Devin. Taylor was fact checked by Susan Lee. contained original music by Dan Powell.

risto and Pat mccusker and was. engineered by Alyssa. Moxley our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben lansburg of wonderly. special thanks to relle. [Music]. Banja that's it for the daily I'm. Michael buaro see you tomorrow. [Music].