Four Weeks to Go

from New York Times I'm Michael babbaro. this is the daily voting is officially. underway in Minnesota there are just. four weeks left until election day and. polls show that the race between kamla. Harris and Donald Trump is the closest. in a generation it is so good to be back. in. Wisconsin Michigan we're going to bring. back your car. industry so I gathered three of my. colleagues who are covering the campaign. Shane goldmacher Maggie Haberman and.

Nate con to make sense of the major. events of the past week that could. change that math thousands of Doc. workers are on strike Israeli missiles. striking near the heart of Beirut never. before seen evidence in special. prosecutor Jack Smith's election case. against former president Donald Trump. this is a one and to explore the last. minute strategies that both campaigns. are hoping might tip the. scales it's from Friday October.

4th so welcome back to the three of you. the same cast as our last round table. which as you remember was the first. historic Round Table inaugural yeah so. this. unprecedented historical unprecedented. an Shane goldmacher Nate con Maggie. Hammerman appreciate you guys being here. thanks for having us thanks for having. us so let's jump in this has been a very. eventful week we have a widening war in.

the Middle East we have a strike by long. shoremen threatening the supply chain up. and down the Eastern. Seaborn finally we have a court filing. from the special Council Jack Smith that. might be our first true October surprise. so where do you want to start I think of. the various things that you just. described the long shoreman strike. that's one that actually impacts. people's lives that impacts their daily. existence this involves supply chain it. involves working people the fight over.

workingclass voters is key for this race. right now so if everything we've just. said I think that's high up on the list. well just explain why the strike matters. and how both campaigns are or aren't. seizing an opportunity with it we saw. what Supply chains having trouble did. for the economy before and I think for. Harris it's actually just a reminder of. a big vulnerability she has which is. she's tied to the current Administration. you look at her candidacy and she is. trying to write a above the fry she is.

hope she is Joy she is the future and. this is very much the present this is a. problem this is a issue that has not. been solved by Joe Biden and so in that. way it just pulls her back into into The. Fray and doesn't let her right above the. clouds and it's worth remembering that. the promise of the Biden Administration. was we were going to get a return to. normaly that once the pandemic was over. we would all go back to our pre-pandemic. pre-trump lives and forget about. politics and the Biden admin ation.

hasn't made good on that promise all. this adds up to a sense that America. isn't necessarily under competent. leadership maybe we should be going in a. different direction and I think that the. specifics of it are undoubtedly. important especially if they end up. affecting the economy and people's lives. but more chaos in the news I think is is. just good news for Trump so at a very. basic level this is a problem primarily. for vice president Harris because it. kind of reattaches her to a not. especially popular incumbent president. when she very much wants to be liberated.

from transcending the very idea of Joe. Biden and his presidency yeah I would. lump them all together as Nate just did. it's not just the long shoran strike. it's all of these things adding up to. the sense that things aren't calm and. stable and this is in fact something. that Trump himself is saying on the. campaign Trail and it's something we saw. at the debate this week between the two. vice presidential candidates I want to. know why neither campaign so far has. used and used his a tricky word cuz it.

sounds so callous but seized the. opportunity to portray a strike by. Working Class People and made this about. what is wrong with America what is. perhaps wrong with income inequality and. Champion the workers on strike and not. necessarily just treat it like a. nuisance something that might increase. prices but as something that could. reinforce the heart of what these. campaigns are about you sound like an. irritated Trump adviser trying to remind. him to focus on the economy um no but in.

in all seriousness Trump the Trump. campaign has talked about it a bit um. but it has not punched through all the. other things he's talking about which is. namely defending himself uh against an. indictment in the January 6th federal. case and whatever else is on his mind at. any given moment and so getting Trump to. stick to a a purely economic focused. message economy is still the top issue. for voters has been very very. challenging for the Trump team you're. right this actually presents a real. opportunity it's just not one that he. has delivered on effect why hasn't.

Harris delivered on it I think this is a. risky proposition for both candidates to. be honest we just talked about how this. strike could spiral to affect millions. of Americans you don't want to get on. the wrong side of it it's a dangerous. game to side with a group of Strikers. who might disrupt the economy certainly. the like overall narrative is. potentially convincing to a lot of. Voters but if it ends up disrupting. their lives and either candidate was on. the picket line with. them real risks involved in that okay. let's turn to. the war the growing conflict between.

Israel Hezbollah Iran Yemen is now in. the mix as well and what kind of a. challenge that presents to both. campaigns you have already all suggested. that in a pretty clear way it reminds. people that Harris is Vice President in. an Administration that hasn't ended this. conflict how does Donald Trump handle. this does he talk about it and does it. matter Nate to voters very much I think.

that it clearly matters to a specific. group of Voters Muslim and Arab voters. who are over represented in the state of. Michigan State and I think it also. affects the overall National mood the. sense that the world is unsafe that the. current Administration is ineffective. and not up to the task of solving. problems at home or abroad and that back. when Donald Trump was President the. world was more stable it was at peace. and I think it helps um Donald Trump in. that respect even if it's not narrowly. about whether anyone has any view of you. know whether Israel should send tanks. into Lebanon or not but is there a way.

in which the new developments in this. conflict moves it away from that. framework of Simply Israel versus the. Palestinians and towards a larger kind. of geopolitical set of issues that. perhaps is of value to a vice president. who's still kind of very much searching. for an identity on the world stage I I. don't see a world where this is helpful. to the vice president I just don't I. mean number one it's a conflict that uh. is evolving out of an already existing. conflict that's been going on for a year.

now that the president current president. has struggled to contain has struggled. to have the Israeli leader listen to him. on various points that he's made and to. your point she is establishing herself. on the world stage this is a a very. risky area in which to suddenly reveal. yourself as to where you are and who you. are it's also an issue that Trump has. staked out real ground and we have seen. him do this since long before he was. president but certainly since he was. president to never really be critical of. Israel well he was very critical of.

Benjamin Netanyahu for congratulating. President Biden for winning the election. and then that that caused this yearslong. Rift and Trump was initially somewhat. callous in responding to the attack on. Israel on October 7th of last year and. that was again a product of this. personal animus that he had toward. Netanyahu that has since been cleared up. Trump has a history of making. anti-semitic comments but that has not. cost him with Republican leaning Jews. and a lot of single issue Israel Jews in.

the US so this is a a much easier issue. for him it's much harder for Harris to. find ground on I mean when during the. vice presidential debate I take notes on. the computer and then I have like a side. of paper where I Circle something that. feels particularly important good method. and one of the first things I circled. was JD Vance saying Donald Trump is the. candidate of stability and this was I. think a pretty audacious thing Democrats. Nikki Haley in the primary they have. called him the chaos candidate since Jeb. Bush and here's his running matate say.

he is the stability candidate and I. think that it's worth thinking that this. is an intentional frame that they're. setting up for a story I worked on this. week I talked to Matt Gates congressman. from Florida really a close Trump Ally. and he was very explicit about this they. are trying to say it was peaceful when. he was president yes there was Co maybe. you don't remember all those specifics. but there was General economic. prosperity in the first 3 years and. they're trying to tap back into that and. I think you could take the totality all. this and that line from JD Vance the.

candidate of stability was really. striking okay there was a development. this week though that does not embody. Trump's stability and that was the. special counsel Jack Smith drawing us. back into what may be one of the most. unstable moments of the Trump presidency. which was the events before and on. January 6th so I want to know why Jack. Smith did what he did just now we all. understand that he was not able to bring. his prosecution before the election. obviously he and his staff wish they. could suddenly we get this big filing.

that contains a lot of new information. is that strategic and does it matter so. Jack Smith brought this filing because. Jack Smith has had to file a new. indictment I I shouldn't say he had to. but he did file a new indictment after. the Supreme Court ruling on Trump and. Immunity that basically said essentially. everything Trump had done in the. capacity as president in the context of. this leadup to January 6th was in his. capacity as president an official act. and so there's this whole issue of what. constitutes an official ACT versus not. official act Jack Smith tailored this.

filing to explain essentially why the. case should move forward I'm condensing. this. but thank you I I'm trying um if you. read it and and I would encourage people. to read it because it's a really. important historical read this does. potentially remind voters of a very. damning fact set for Donald Trump there. was one particularly striking new piece. of information which is that when Trump. was told of this chaos happening at the. capital on January 6 2021 he at the. White House he's getting these updates.

yeah and Mike Pence the vice president. is under threat as are others uh Trump's. response was allegedly so what now. what's striking about this document is. not that there are hugely surprising new. damning details we always understood his. approach to all that violence that day. was basically to shrug it's a. compilation of a a really really. disquieting and disturbing series of. reactions that he allegedly had and that. his AIDS allegedly took and that a lot. of people around him took with his. desired impact being to overturn the.

election and it just it brings it all. back with a month left until Election. Day January 6 came up as a key moment in. the vice presidential debate when uh. Governor Waltz talked about it and. pushed back on JD Vance you have vice. president Harris campaigning with Liz. Cheney this week so there is just sort. of this cumulative effect of reminding. voters of what took place at the end. right L chy of course being the leader. of the Congressional committee that. investigates January 6 and and really.

makes America aware of the depth of the. president's disregard for the rule of. law that day but also his Embrace of. some of the violence and a Conservative. Republican uh who would not normally be. ideologically aligned with con Harris. it's worth noting too that the Harris. campaign has really struggled to make. this election about January 6 in. democracy the Biden campaign took for. granted that in the end voters would. cast their ballots based on what. happened that day and that was in part. because in the midterm election that. seemed to have happened but there is no.

January 6 commission this time driving. the news down the stretch and there. isn't a way of sto the steel candidates. campaigning on overturning the election. in the key Battleground States as there. was in the midterms so I think it's a. big deal that we have a series of news. events this week that have put this. issue back because it's a really good. issue for Harris and one of the few. issues that's really good for Harris. it's the kind of issue that if it's what. voters are thinking about that her. chances of winning go way up compared to. a world where the swing voter looks at. the news and sees chaos in the Middle.

East and Strikes um along the Eastern. Seaport I mean this was like a central. defining thing of the Biden campaign is. they thought that this was going to be. the background music of 2024 just as it. was in 2022 they were loud and it wasn't. that loud and when Harris is taken over. she's moved away from it right the Biden. campaign began with the word freedom and. they were applying it to democracy and. they were applying it to abortion Harris. has applied it heavily to abortion and. has not focused on this issue as much. it's not a core part of her stump speech. and so for her it's good to have this.

out there without her having to talk. about it she's going to talk about the. economy she's talking about the kitchen. table issues that's what they think is. going to win them this election but they. want this to be part of the factors that. people are thinking about especially. those undecided we shouldn't expect vice. president Harris to lean into this. moment and try to reorient the race back. around to the issue of democracy to. January 6 to his efforts to overturn. they want to motivate their base on that. issue right and they did it right after. the debate moment the first thing they. said they cut an ad the only ad they cut. immediately after this debate was the.

collision between Tim Walls and JD Vance. where JD Vance would not say that Donald. Trump lost the last election that's the. only ad the Harris campaign announced. the next day that they had cut from the. debate it wasn't the abortion answer. which was powerful it was this issue. last question on this is there a world. where January 63 emerging into the. ecosystem of the campaign is perhaps to. Trump's Advantage maybe because he gets. to reup the argument that a Witch Hunt. is going on election was stolen from no.

okay a uniform no he's maxed out on on. the voters of his who care about this. and are going to get behind him on it. there's a final thing that happened this. week and Magie it's a line of reporting. that you pursued into Donald Trump's. Health what did you find why did you do. this and is what you found important so. one of our colleagues and I worked on a. story about where things stand with. Trump healthwise because after the. assassination attempt against him in. Butler Pennsylvania he told a CBS. reporter that he had taken a cognitive.

test and had a checkup and he would. gladly release the records and we asked. for the records and after the shooting. he took a desk yes so he says and they. won't release them they never did a. medical briefing after the shooting in. Butler he just went to the hospital left. the hospital they issued a statement. saying he was fine he took a CAT scan. but we don't know the results we know. that he was sicker with covid at the end. of his presidency in 2020 than they ever. said we know that his father had. dementia we don't know much else about. his family background we know that he. was was obese at clinically at points in.

the white house we know that he has high. cholesterol very high cholesterol. according to what you found some history. of cardiac disease and so all of these. are risk factors especially when we are. talking about someone who would be the. oldest president of the end of his term. if he wins and these are valid questions. they were valid questions about. President Biden as well they are valid. questions about Donald Trump now we've. also sought records for vice president. Harris too it's important to understand. the health of a sitting US president the.

former president is very secretive about. a lot of personal matters but. particularly his health and he was very. key to have his personal doctor released. in an exuberant letter in 2016 saying. you know he was the fittest person ever. in the universe to to president. Incredible strength and stamina his the. files in that doctor's office according. to the Doctor Who's now passed away were. later absconded with by people working. for Trump so we don't really have a full. picture of his health these are real. questions why do we think that the kind.

of collective political camera has never. really swiveled around in a focused way. two questions around Donald Trump's. Health especially given his age all the. things you just said in the way that. they did so forcefully around Joe Biden. I mean I think for the most part is. because he was running against Joe Biden. and the the physical diminishment of Joe. Biden was there for everyone to see in a. way that it has not been as apparent for. Donald Trump you could just see that's. right the Aging of Joe Biden before your. eyes but it is true that Donald Trump.

should he win would be older at every. stage of his presidency because he's. older when he would take the oath of. office than Biden was and these are. really legitimate questions you saw what. aging happened at that age in a. president you saw what an 80-year-old. president looks like and you would see. that again if Donald Trump were to win. and so I think these questions about his. health and that secrecy is really a. point of tension and something of. interest to voters we saw how much. voters cared about the mental state of. the president and I think it's a a.

really good question in a line of. reporting for Trump where is the line. between whether someone is too old and. not fit to be president versus just. young enough and at some point Joe Biden. crossed that line and the electorate. reacted decisively they went from saying. he was fit to be president by 31 margin. to saying he wasn't by a 3 to1 margin. for whatever reason Donald Trump hasn't. crossed that line he may be very close. to it and we don't know we didn't know. when Joe Biden took office how close he. was and where that line would be but. Donald Trump hasn't crossed this. invisible threshold.

all right with that we're going to take. a break and Maggie I'd like you to have. the honors again we'll be right back wow. she's just she's like nailed nailed. [Music]. it son you made a claim. over the past week that I want you to.

explain and then I want to kind of fact. check it based on everything that we. just talked about you had said that. we've entered a stretch of the race that. is Placid where there hasn't been too. much going on and where as a result. there's a kind of clearer than ever. understanding of the race so I want you. to justify that and especially given how. much news there was over the past few. days yeah sure I mean stepping back for. a second the last two months have been.

full of big political events Joe Biden. dropped out of the race kamla Harris. introduced herself to the nation she. selected a vice president there was a. democratic convention and there was a. presidential debate in a six- week. period each of those EV you didn't even. mention the two assassination attempts I. didn't even mention the assassination. attempts or before that that Donald. Trump was convicted of crimes in any. case each of these events raised a big. question about would there be a big. effect on the race would vot react to.

Harris's debate Victory would the. convention make a splash and similarly. the polls taken after each of those. events were clouded by these same. questions is this just a reflection of a. post- debate bounce or a postc. convention bounce or a post VP pick. bounce and I don't think we have those. same questions today there is still. plenty of news going on we've talked. about that news but I don't think that. there are any of the sort of classic. events that have the potential to. distort public opinion and it's also.

noteworthy that the polls have been. relatively stable the last two weeks. we've seen almost no change in the. polling averages that we publish here at. the New York Times they show a really. close race and between the relative. stability of the news and the stability. of the numbers I think we can say this. is the race we have right now with far. fewer questions with far fewer questions. than we've had to this point okay and. within that framework briefly what is. this resting stable state state. exactly the resting stable stasis.

appears to be something like a more or. less exact TI with stunning statement it. it's it is a stunning statement and it's. not something that we've seen in the. time at least I've been covering polls. and I think if you look back. historically you'll find that it's very. rare or maybe even unprecedented over. the longer term no discernable real. favorite in the polls if you had to. squint you would say well I guess the. average of polls his hair is ahead by. like 7/10 of a point in Pennsylvania and. therefore if the polls were absolutely. perfect which they're not she'd win by.

one state but it can't be any closer do. the campaigns Embrace that understanding. oh yeah I think I think both campaigns. Embrace that understanding and they know. that there are seven states that are. being competed in and that speaking of. those polling and polling averages and. polling misses that if the polls are off. by a little chunk that all seven states. could still move right that these are. these are states that are in play that. places like Arizona which appears like. more of a reach state for comml Harris.

is not out of play and you look where. they're spending their money and it's in. all of these places that's right they're. places you see more money going lately. that tell you that they're competitive. like North Carolina the Trump team has. moved more money there when he was. running against Joe Biden they thought. this was a state they had more or less. in the bag on those list of seven they. no longer feel that way and you see the. Harris campaign putting money putting. time you know time is the most valuable. resource at this point they have one. month left watch where the candidates go. watch where they spend their money.

that's the answer to where they think. this race is happening or well tell us. don't make us watch tell us where the. candidates are spending their time and. money how they're going to be making the. most of these dwindling final days of. the race which constituencies they're. going to be most focused on given just. how startlingly close the races it's. going to change a lot they're they're. both going to be ripping up their. schedules I think really like Trump more. than Harris yeah Trump's been very. reactive um Harris has tended to have a. little bit more of a direct theory of. the case of where she wants to campaign.

but which is what just briefly which is. she is going to the the three blue wall. States Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan. if she loses those her path is pretty. difficult Trump you are going to see try. to shore up North Carolina try to shore. up Georgia two states that she could win. the Trump campaign feels very good about. Arizona and Nevada Democrats feel a. little better about Nevada then. Republicans think they should we will. find out who is Right Trump is hanging. his hat on a turnout of low propensity.

voters younger men all across the board. in particular Nate can speak to this. more eloquently than I can but they. don't thank you love that um but but. they very eloquent but they can't. guarantee these folks are going to come. out and vote and because they a low. propensity voters correct and so that's. a big gamble and so you were going to. see Trump doing not just you know. inperson events and he is constrained as. Shane and Jonathan Swan and I reported. recently by these security threats. against him he is not a city president. or vice president he just simply has a.

different level of security and he's a. little more vulnerable but you are going. to see him doing podcasts you are going. to see him continuing to sort of reach. out to people in unique media ways and. we will see where it all falls in a. couple of weeks to when you need 270. electoral votes and there was just a. fight recently about one state that. splits up its votes Nebraska and a. single District that Democrats are. favored to win and Republicans were. trying to flip this rules in Nebraska so. all of the electoral votes would have.

gone to Trump the effort failed but this. was about that blue wall because if you. didn't flip that and Harris just won. those three states Michigan Wisconsin. and Pennsylvania she and he would end at. a 269 tie like it's not even unlikely. they were talking about plans to get to. a tie that's how close this RAC and. that's why the Trump folks wanted to. change the rules in Nebraska they wanted. in the event of a tie for that final. tiebreaking vote to not go to k Harris.

they wanted a win or take all model that. would go to his I don't know how. replicable whatever Donald Trump ends up. with in this Coalition that he is. building will be for another Republican. who comes after him so what does that. mean for Republicans uh well I think it. means that Donald Trump as problematic. as he has been for down ballot in. particular is still their best hope at. winning a national election for the. foreseeable future and maybe that won't. be true but we'll see or at the very. least a hypothetical Republican National. Victory would look really different yes. that Donald Trump might be to pull.

off I don't know that we'll find out. what the final election result will be. but if it turns out that Harris narrowly. wins in Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin. other critical Battleground States while. struggling Nationwide I think it will be. hard to wonder whether Donald Trump. stopped the steel campaign was a. relevant factor in why he just couldn't. quite do as well in the very states with. the very voters whose votes he tried to. throw out last time around J that is.

what happened in 2022 in the midterm. it's very hard for us in the Poland. world to find this we're talking about. such a small number of people like maybe. one in a 100 people or one in 50 of. Trump's former supporters just being. like you know what that was over the. line it was their votes and maybe that's. what it is that's a good point and again. to bring it back to Jack Smith here he. is on his own terms re-injecting that. subject into the race and re-injecting. that subject in its rawest form without. anything that Trump can say this was in. my power as presidency I mean well I'm.

sure he will still make that argument. but Jack Smith's trying to avoid it and. it's still a pretty bad fact said for. Donald Trump as you guys know round TBL. is exceptionally hard to end because. it's round there's no place to get a. handle on it can't just fall off time is. a flat round table but I want to try. with. just but in my effort to try to end this. round table there was a quirky bit of. news that floated into the universe over. the past few days Melania Trump is pro. choice voice her husband more than any.

single elected official in the history. of the Republic has restricted. abortion she said this in her book she. said it in her book and the trumps have. a history of putting things in books. that make a lot of news and sell those. books and uh I think there is a world in. which this is not a hidden attempt to. try to soften him although I imagine. that he would welcome that and would. make him happy and it was simply a way. for her to get her thoughts out and get. attention but attention it is getting it. is not something that former White House. advisers remember her talking about in.

either direction Pro or con abortion. rights was not exactly a small issue. when he was in office he was in the. middle of appointing this conservative. super majority at the Supreme Court as. you noted that repealed the roie Wade. abortion rights decision from 1973 and. uh she is apparently against it and her. husband is still struggling mightily. with how to articulate what he actually. thinks on abortion while also saying. that he terminated roie Wade and he's. very proud of it so I don't know how. these two things align or how voters.

will receive it it's just interesting. that a first lady who has been a. complete non-entity on the campaign. Trail kind of Peaks up and says I. disagree with my husband on the most. volatile issue on which her husband is. deeply aware of his vulnerability it's I. hear you guys saying that there might be. more than me the ey it's hard not to see. the timing in an October book is. anything but strategic to release. this I don't find it that hard to see it. as anything no I'm accept I'm.

accepting political world you all live. in every day it's hard to imagine he. didn't know that she was going to do it. I don't think that the entire book was. built around for saying this and having. it come out in October have you read it. the book I've not I don't have it yet I. have pre-ordered it though as I do all. political books right right no. favoritism here on that note Maggie. Shane Nate thank you very much thank you. thank you thanks for having us we'll do. it again soonish. [Music].

on Thursday night after my conversation. with Maggie Nate and Shane the union. representing long shoran suspended their. strike after receiving a higher offer on. wages from their. employers but the union cautioned that. No Deal had been reached and that their. strike could eventually. resume you can watch a video version of. this episode at nytimes.com.

thedaily or on the New York Times. YouTube. channel we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you need to. another day on Thursday the Israeli. military issued evacuation warnings for. more than 20 additional towns and cities. in in southern Lebanon where Israeli.

troops are fighting Hezbollah militants. suggesting that the scope of Israel's. Invasion there may be. expanding the warnings came as Israel. continues to bombard Lebanon with. hundreds of air strikes and as it weighs. a military response against Iran in. response to its air strikes against. Israel one scenario that Israel is now. considering is an attack on Iran's. lucrative oil indust hisory a. possibility that President Biden briefly.

acknowledged on Wednesday as he boarded. Marine 1 before trailing off do you. support Israel striking Iran oil. facilities. sir we're in discussion that I think I. think that would be a little anyway in. response oil prices surged over fears. that an Israeli attack would soon. disrupt the global oil supply. remember you can catch the latest.

episode of the interview right here. tomorrow my colleague David maresi talks. with the one and only Al Pacino some of. the early stuff I did in school 14 15. years old when I did it was in those. plays that was still the most inspired. work I had done you know I didn't know. what I was doing the most inspired work. you did was a 14 or 15y old kid I think. so I think so because I was so in it. [Music]. today's episode was produced by Olivia.

Nat and mu Z with help from Michael. Simon Johnson it was edited by Brendan. clink BG with help from Paige cowed. contains original music by Rowan misto. and Dan Powell and was engineered by. Alyssa Moxley our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben lerk of wonderly. [Music]. the daily is made by Rachel quer Lindsey.

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Elizabeth Davis Moore Jeffrey Miranda. Maddie masello Isabella Anderson Nina. lassam and Nick. Pitman that's it for the daily I'm. Michael Barbaro see you on Monday. [Music].