Ending Roe Was Supposed to Reduce Abortions. It Didn’t.

from New York Times I'm Michael Boro. this is the. [Music]. daily today from the moment that Row. versus Wade was overturned the question. was just how much it would reduce. abortions across the US now more than a. year later the numbers are in and as my. colleague Margo Sanger cats explains.

they are not what anyone had. [Music]. [Applause]. expected it's Wednesday November. [Music]. 29th Margo just a few days after R. versus Wade was overturned by the.

Supreme Court you came on The Daily to. describe the new legal landscape of. abortion in the US what a new. state-by-state post Ro map of access and. restriction was going to look like as a. result of that Court decision and the. question back then was what was going to. be the impact of that new map on the. number of abortions in the US but of. course we didn't have any data back them. it's true it was a really an open. question if all of these states banned. abortion what was going to happen to the.

women who used to have abortions in. those States would they travel to. another state and get an abortion anyway. would they order pills from overseas. through kind of not totally legal. methods and have illegal abortions would. they uh have less sex or use more birth. control and become less likely to be. pregnant or would they end up carrying. pregnancies to term that they would have. terminated in the past and there would. be more babies and because it takes a.

long time for a baby to gate and be born. we have sort of been waiting for a long. time to see what happened and now more. than a year after row was overturned we. finally have the answer and what is the. answer so the newest data that we have. and we think the best data actually. looked at how many births happened in. the aftermath of the dobs decision that. was the decision that overturned Row. versus Wade and and what we found out is.

that in every one of the 13 states that. banned abortion immediately after the. Supreme Court decision births increased. every single one of them that's right. they didn't all increase uh by the same. amount uh and we can talk more about. what I think is driving those. differences but it was a very consistent. result across all of these states and by. how much did births increase in those 13. states so the researchers that did this.

study estimated that in the first 6. months of this year there were about. 32,000 more babies born in those States. than they would have expected that's. about a. 2.3% increase if you compare states that. Bann abortions to the states that didn't. ban abortions and you know that's a. small difference but when you think. about how few pregnancies ended in. abortion before it's actually pretty big. difference about. 25% of women who we might have expected.

to end their pregnancies ended up. carrying their pregnancies to term I'm. curious how do the researchers know that. the rising birth rate in these 13 states. represents the influence of row being. overturned and these State abortion bans. could anything else potentially explain. higher birth rates in these states so. obviously the research that's just. looking at the number of births it can't. answer the question for any individual. ual woman you know what did she want to.

do what would she have done in a. different policy environment but the. researchers did a very complicated. economics style analysis where they. looked at the trends before this policy. change in all the states and then they. looked at what happened after the policy. changed and what they saw is that the. states that didn't ban abortion things. kind of looked about the same you know. births were going down they kept going. down if births were holding steady they. continued to hold steady but in the. states that baned abortion there's a.

huge Divergence like there's a chart in. the study that is just like you see it. and you're like oh my goodness something. changed at exactly the time that you. would have expected which is that all of. these states suddenly start seeing an. increased births about six to seven. months after abortion was banned in. their state got it so the researchers. were able to say with some confidence. you know they can't be a th% sure but. there's nothing else that really would. explain why you would see this big. change in Trends in only these states. right okay so so you had told us back in.

June of 2022 that when it comes to. abortion access bands in certain States. would matter much more than bands in. other states so talk us through the. geography of where these birth increases. happened where they were biggest or. smallest and what that tells us about. this post row map of abortion access. yeah so if you think about the typical. patient who seeks an abortion tend to be.

a relatively young woman in her 20s a. woman who already has another child and. I think very importantly also a woman. who is poor or close to poor so these. are women for whom long distances are a. really huge hurdle they're going to have. to find a way to get to a clinic in. another state they may have to take time. off from work or arrange child care for. their existing children and so what our. expectation was is that the further. women had to go to get to the nearest. abortion clinic the more likely they. were going to be deterred from having an.

abortion because just all of those. financial and logistical hurdles were. piling up and making it more difficult. for them right and essentially what this. new study shows is that that intuition. was correct if you look at the states. that banned abortion they are largely. clustered in the South where women have. to travel the longest distance to get to. an abortion clinic those were the places. where we saw the largest increases in. births give us some examples so Texas is.

a huge state with really large distances. and uh Texas saw the largest increase in. births in this period and the state that. had the second largest increase in. births is Mississippi and that's a state. that's surrounded by a lot of other. states that also banned abortion you. know Arkansas banned abortion Tennessee. banned abortion and then heading north. Missouri Kentucky West Virginia so. hundreds of miles of travel to get to. the nearest abortion clinic and what we. see again is that the births in those.

States increased by the most of any of. the states that had abortion bands so. that makes sense the impact of these. bands is clearly greatest where it takes. the longest to get to a state where it's. not banned what about in the states. where abortion is banned but neighboring. states have not banned it and therefore. the distance to an abortion clinic is. smaller what does the data show there so. the data shows that where the distances. are relatively short there was still an. increase in the birth. but it was not as large and I think the.

best example of this is Missouri in. Missouri before row was overturned there. was only one abortion clinic in the. whole state and it was located right. near the Illinois border so when. Missouri banned abortion that clinic. closed but women seeking an abortion. only had to drive two miles further to. get to the nearest clinic in Illinois. than they did before and so of all of. the states that banned abortion we see. the smallest effect on the birth rate in. Missouri we're talking about women.

crossing state lines to get abortions. but of course that's not the only option. does this data help us at all understand. how many women in the states where. abortion is banned are pursuing an. abortion through other. means so it tells us a little bit about. that we have known for some time that. women are ordering pills through these. kind of Quasi legal means where they're. getting them from other countries. through the mail so there websites where.

you can go and order abortion pills they. come to you um usually from India and. the largest provider of those pills has. actually been publicly reporting the. data on how many orders they've been. getting and we can see that the states. where they have been sending a lot of. pills seem to have a smaller increase in. the birth rate than we might expect just. based on driving distance alone so that. suggests to me and to these researchers. that probably those pills are acting as.

a substitute for travel for some of. those women so an example of that is. Arkansas Arkansas is a state that banned. abortion and the birth rate did go up in. Arkansas but it didn't go up by as much. as you would have expected just based on. the driving distances alone and we also. know that Arkansas was a state where a. lot of women ordered these pills from. overseas H but why would women in. Arkansas be much more likely. to order these pills from overseas.

through the mail than in any other state. where abortion is banned I don't think. that we really know the answer to that. question I think the opportunity to. order these pills overseas is kind of. new and so the word about them may be. spreading in sort of uneven ways through. different parts of the country I also. think that women in different states may. think about the legal risk of pursuing. this option differently Texas for. example is a state where law enforcement.

and um other state officials have made. it really clear that they want to. vigorously enforce their abortion ban. right so that might be a place where on. the margin women are a little bit less. likely to order pills because they're. worried that they could get in. trouble so in thinking back to where we. started the effect of overturning row on. access to abortion what is this data. really revealing I think it shows us. that abortion bans do work in all of. these states that banned abortions we're. seeing births going up and that's pretty.

clear but I think just looking at what. happened in those 13 states actually. doesn't give us the full picture of. what's happened over the last year since. Row versus Wade was. overturned if you look at other data and. see what's happening Nationwide the. total number of abortions actually. hasn't gone down instead something. interesting and a little bit surprising. has. happened abortions are going.

up we'll be right. back Margo just before the break you. said that despite these State abortion. banss abortions are somehow up. Nationwide which seems very. counterintuitive so just explain that. yeah I mean I have to admit that I was a. little bit surprised when I saw these. numbers I should say this is not a huge.

increase the estimate is that the number. of abortions since the Supreme Court. decision only went up by like 2% but. when you consider that there are all. these states that banned abortion. totally where abortions went to zero. what it's really telling us is that the. states where abortions stayed legal. increased by so much that they were able. to sort of counterweight that reduction. and I think there are a couple of. factors that really explain what's going. on. here one is that we know that even.

though there's women who are prevented. from having abortions in the states that. banded there are a lot of women that are. still getting out who are still. traveling to neighboring states and when. you look at data on the number of. abortions that are being provided around. the country you can see really large. increases in some of these border states. that women are tending to go to mhm. places like Kansas New Mexico Illinois. North Carolina these are states that are. neighboring places where abortion is. banned and there's been a big growth in.

abortion infrastructure to accommodate. those women and they are traveling there. and they are getting. abortions but what's really interesting. and I think more surprising in this data. is that we also see increases in states. where they're just not that close to the. places that banned abortion like. California has had a pretty substantial. increase in the number of abortions that. it's provided and some of the states in. the Northeast have had pretty big. increases and I think that suggests that. there's something more going on than.

just women traveling out of the states. with bands that actually there are more. women in some of these states where. abortion remained legal who are having. abortions in this postro period than. would have had them in the preow. [Music]. period and why would that be why would. there be more women having abortions in. states where it was always legal after.

row was overturned and it remained legal. so I think the biggest reason is that. right around the same time that the. Supreme Court overturned the row. decision the Biden Administration. changed the rules for how women can get. abortion pills in the United States so. the abortion pill has been legal for 20. years um but for most of that time if. you wanted to take abortion pills you. had to go to a physical Clinic meet with. a doctor in person and then they would.

give you the pill in person and you. would take the first pill at the visit. and then take um additional medicine. home with you and so that meant that. medication abortion really wasn't that. much easier for women than procedural. abortion because they still had to go to. a clinic that might be pretty far from. their house and it was still pretty. expensive what the new rules allow is. that you can get abortions through tele. medicine and with these tele medicine. abortions women could talk to a doctor.

from their home and then have abortion. pills mailed to their home and then they. could take the abortion pills at home. and that change made abortion less. expensive in a lot of cases and it also. made it much more convenient for women. who didn't live near an abortion clinic. you know we were talking before about. the driving distances and so of course. if you live in Texas or Mississippi and. there's no abortion clinic within. hundreds of miles driving distance is. really important but even in states. where abortion had always been legal and. again I think California as a good. example you know if you lived kind of in.

central California you might be pretty. far from an abortion clinic before and. so this regulatory change I think made. it a little easier for some of those. women to get abortions the other thing. that happened is that once that policy. went into place there was actually a big. kind of startup movement they almost. feel a little bit like Tech startups uh. in the abortion space now where they. feel like okay we can have uh some. doctors who can like work remotely and. can provide abortions through the.

internet to women and so that's been. like an increase in the number of. providers that are available for those. women so since Row the infrastructure. for abortions that don't require going. to a clinic expands dramatically from. what you're saying yeah but I think. that's not the only thing that happened. I think for a lot of people who had not. been paying attention to abortion in the. recent years the overturning of row was. like a huge activating moment and we.

have seen in the last year a lot of. fundraising and money being poured into. the abortion system and awareness of. abortion and the options for abortion. growing and we've also seen a lot of. these states that always had legal. abortion have started pursuing new. policies to make abortion even easier to. get and less expensive states have. required insurance companies to cover. abortion they've provided extra legal.

protections for doctors that provide. abortion they've allowed nurse. practitioners and other kinds of people. to provide abortions in their states and. I think all of that is sort of a. political reaction to the Supreme Court. decision and those changes might not. have happened in the absence of it and. all of those changes probably also. helped make abortion a little bit more. available to women in those States and. also probably raise their awareness ESS. that abortion was an option for them so.

in these states and this is. counterintuitive the overturning of row. leads to greater access to abortions. kind of a mirror image to the 13 states. that banned it and therefore according. to this data there are more abortions in. these states that's right I mean we. don't know what's going to happen in the. future and the trends could reverse but. I actually think it's possible that. we're going to see an even larger. increase in the number of abortions. Nationwide because all this data we've. been talking about are a little old the.

most recent data about the number of. abortions comes from this summer but. since then there's been a pretty. important change which is that a bunch. of these states that kept abortion legal. have passed laws that allow doctors. there to mail abortion pills into states. with bans and they will protect them. from extradition so if you're a doctor. in New York in the first year. in which row is overturned you would not.

want to treat a patient in Texas and you. would not want to mail abortion pills. into Texas because abortion is illegal. in Texas and authorities could come and. arrest you potentially and what New York. and Massachusetts and a couple of other. states have done is theyve passed laws. where they said no no if you go to Texas. you could get arrested but as long as. you stay here in your home state of New. York we will make sure that you're not. going to get in any legal trouble and as. a result of that there are doctors who. are setting up shop and sending large.

numbers of pills into these ban States. and because of that researchers I talk. to think that we could see an even. larger number of abortions happening. this year than we saw last year I mean. all this Margo suggests that while. abortion bands have worked in the states. where they are in place during this. first year post row overall the strategy. of trying to overturn row and therefore. uce abortion has kind of backfired right.

and it may continue to backfire more and. more over time yeah I think it has. backfired if you think about the. activists that brought this case to the. Supreme Court their goal was not just to. reduce abortions in Texas and. Mississippi they really wanted to reduce. abortions across the entire country and. I think we've all been really focused on. the states that were Banning abortion. but there was also this huge change that. happened in the states that didn't ban. abortion which is a lot of states and I.

think that's why we see abortions going. up by so much. mhm I don't know that the anti-abortion. activists could have ever predicted that. this would be the effect of the end of. row and I don't even think that the. abortion rights activists saw this. coming I think everyone assumed that the. end of row was going to mean a decrease. in abortions not an. [Music]. increase well Margo thank you very much. we appreciate it thank.

you we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know. day on Tuesday the fifth day of the. ceasefire between Hamas and Israel Hamas. released 12 more hostages from Gaza. including 10 is Isis and two Tha.

Nationals while Israel released 30. Palestinians from Israeli. prisons overall Hamas has released 85. hostages since the ceasefire began and. Israel has. freed 180 imprisoned. Palestinians and the powerful political. Network led by conservative billionaire. Charles kooch has endorsed former South. Carolina Governor Nikki Haley for for. president the latest boost to her.

Republican candidacy which has steadily. risen in the polls the endorsement gives. Haley's campaign much needed. organizational muscle and financial. might and cements her place as the. favored candidate of Republican donors. seeking to stop Donald Trump from. becoming the. [Music]. nominee today's episode was produced by. Will Reed Alex Stern and Carlos PRI it.

was edited by Devin Taylor fact checked. by Susan Lee contains original music by. Maran Lozano and Dan Powell and was. engineered by Alyssa. Moxley our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben lford of. wonderly. that's it for the daily I'm Michael.

borro see you. [Music]. tomorrow.