Celebration and Mourning: Inside an Iran at War

From The New York Times, I'm Michael. Barbaro. This is The Daily. >> [music]. >> On Sunday, >> [music]. >> the United States and Israel pounded. Iran with missiles for a second straight. day, destroying more and more power centers. [music] of the regime. And according to. rights groups, bringing the civilian. [music]. death toll there to well over 100.

MEANWHILE, IRAN UNLEASHED [music] A WAVE OF. retaliatory attacks that proved deadly. Three US [music] troops were killed in. action, becoming the first Americans to. die in the war. As one nation, we grieve. for the true American patriots who have. made the ultimate sacrifice. for our nation. But increasingly, all eyes were on the.

Iranian government [music] and the. millions of citizens who have long. opposed it. And the looming question became whether. a weakened Islamic Republic could. actually [music] be toppled by its own. people. Today, my colleague, [music] Farnaz Fassihi, brings us the view of this pivotal. moment from inside Iran. >> [music].

>> It's Monday, March 2nd. Farnaz, thank you for making time for us on a. Sunday. Really appreciate it. Thank you. for having me, Michael. So, Farnaz, for the people of Iran and. for the massive diaspora of Iranians who. live outside of the country, including. you, Sunday, today as we speak, is one of. those hinge days in history. There was a.

before and there was an after. And right. now, the after is. a world in which Iran's supreme leader, who has been in power for over three. decades, has been killed and is no. longer in power. It's one of those historic days that I. think if for every Iranian, whether. you're a supporter of the government or. you're an opponent, whether you live. inside or you live outside, this is a. new day.

This is a new Iran. Mhm. From the moment. we started hearing about Mr. Khamenei. being potentially killed, my phone started buzzing. I was getting. text messages and phone calls from my. friends and family members. >> Mhm. And I was also getting text. messages and calls from some of my. sources in Iran who were asking me, "Do. you know anything? Is the news true? Is. he gone? What have you heard?" No matter. what side of the divide you were on,

this was a monumental moment. >> [music]. >> And today, [music] Iranians woke up to. the first day of history without Mr. Khamenei in power. And [music] we don't. know exactly what that's going to mean. yet, but this figure who has loomed very. large for almost four decades [music]. over the fate of Iranians is gone.

Some Iranians were celebrating. >> [cheering]. >> People were pouring to the streets. I. had several video calls with several. people I know in in Tehran who turned on. the camera and showed me cars honking on. the streets. People cheering. There were fireworks. People sticking their heads out of the. windows and chanting freedom, freedom, and this visceral scream.

>> [screaming]. >> Like a scream of relief almost. And for the diaspora who are scattered. all over the world, it was a similar. feeling. I watched a group of family. members congregate on FaceTime. Some. were in the US, some were in Europe, some were in Iran, and everybody. [clears throat].

did a video call, and some of them were. crying. They were just these tears of. relief and shock and joy even. And then. they celebrated with shots. Wow. >> And there was a lot of cheers. And when. you say diaspora, you quite literally. mean families who were once together in. Iran, and presumably scattered to the. winds across the world once the Islamic. Revolution came in 1979? Exactly.

It feels like a dream for many Iranians. that once they used to all live a few. blocks from each other and have. multi-generational family gatherings. And under Mr. Khamenei, many of them. have not been able to return to Iran, and many families have just scattered. like stardust all over the world and. separated from each other. So, that's clearly the segment of. Iranians both inside and outside the. country who may be on the celebratory.

side of the spectrum in the 24-48 hours. since he was killed. What about those. who support him? Presumably, you've been. talking to them as well. What. would you characterize as their. reaction? For Mr. Khamenei's supporters, this. feels like a big loss. His supporters started to come out into. the streets.

in large numbers and going to mosques. and [music] praying and crying. >> [laughter]. [music]. >> It feels like the ground is shifting. under them. Not only have they lost. [music] a religious figure that they. reverend and believed in, but they've. also lost a political leader.

>> [music]. >> of a system that they have ideological. loyalty to. IT FEELS LIKE THAT IS IN JEOPARDY, that. they don't know whether this Islamic. Republic that they believe in and they. >> [music]. >> support is going to survive or not. without him. And you know,

this is the reality of Iran, Michael. This polarized society. >> Right. and one wonders whatever comes. next, whatever form of government comes. next, how are you going to bring these. two sides anywhere close to each other. or is that even possible? Right. Because the people doing shots in. their homes uncorking champagne, those people would seem to have a very. hard time reconciling their. reactions and and their whole world view.

with those who are clinging to photos of. the now late supreme leader in the. streets. Exactly. I don't know how these. two sides are going to reconcile. If you. had to estimate, Farnaz, how big would. you describe both of those camps as? The. supporters, the mourners, versus the. dissidents, the opponents, those. celebrating his death. I would say that the overwhelming. majority of the population in Iran are.

opponents of the regime, about 80% and. the core supporters are about 20%. And I think we can sort of draw this. conclusion from voting patterns. In the. past couple of years when there's been. presidential elections or parliamentary. elections, Iranians who are hardcore. believers of the regime have gone to. polls around 20% has been 20% of the. population. Got it. So, you're. extrapolating from that, which seems.

quite reasonable. Right. We can, I. think, draw from that and also like in. January, literally every small and big. town all over Iran saw protests against. the government, including the religious. sort of strongholds of the government. where there were lots of people out. calling for the end of this Islamic. regime. If we look at the demographics of the. protesters who were killed in January, they're from all ethnic groups, from a. large geographic area in Iran and.

different socioeconomic backgrounds. Well, because his death is so fresh and. the reactions as you are describing them. are so different, let's talk about this. man who is inspiring such profound. reactions, Khamenei, and why he inspires such. strong reactions. Mr. Khamenei is the second supreme. leader of Iran. The first was founding. supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah.

Khomeini. He came to power in 1979. after the Islamic revolution that. toppled the monarchy. 12 days ago, the. Ayatollah was operated on in an attempt. to stem intestinal bleeding. Early. yesterday, he suffered a heart attack. He whispered Muslim prayers and died. >> [music]. >> Iran has named a successor to the. Ayatollah Khomeini, less than a day. after the Ayatollah's death in a Tehran. hospital. 49-year-old Ali Khamenei was.

today chosen Khomeini's religious. successor by Iran's Council of Senior. Clerics. It is widely expected that Mr. Khamenei. succeeded him in 1989. Ayatollah Khomeini unleashed. anti-Western passions throughout the. Islamic world. Today, there were thinly. veiled hopes that his successors would. be less effective, if not more friendly. And it is said that while the first. supreme leader led a revolution, Mr. Khamenei led a state.

He really is the ruler who made sure. that the Islamic Republic went from a. revolutionary idea into a state that. entrenched power. The Islamic Republic of Iran that we. know today, that has influence over. proxy militant groups and, you know, has. [music] a a nuclear power and missile. and military power was all the vision of. Mr. Khamenei. Mhm. Not only was he the. religious leader of Shiites around the. world, but his Iran would also be this.

country that led anti-imperialism, anti-Americanism, anti-Israelism. Exactly. [music]. In one of his notorious quotes, he said, "The reason Hamas now has rockets and. can attack Israel is because of us. We. enabled them to go from rocks and arrows. to missiles and guns with our training. and with our funding." And of course, the thing that he is known for is his.

role in domestic repression. For a few days, it looked like the start. of a second revolution. Students on the campus of Tehran. University demanding political and. social reform. But the response was swift and violent. Mr. Khamenei had absolute power. He is known for never giving an inch to. calls for reform. Same team should crush. this youthful idealism. Not the police.

or army, but a militia called the Basij, defenders of the fundamentalist. revolution. Sidelining political. opponents. This government. won't allow us to say what we want. >> Jailing dissidents. The government's. response has been violence. Armor-clad. police attacking protesters from the. backs of speeding motorcycles. Calling. for brutal and lethal crackdowns on. protesters. These are some of the most. recent images coming out of Iran. The.

regime cut off the internet in Iran on. the 8th of January hoping to prevent. coverage of its crackdown on protesters. Including the recent wave in January. where he personally ordered the. shoot-to-kill order. That we think. killed thousands. Exactly. He ordered. security forces to open fire on unarmed. protesters with lethal force. And as a. result, over 3 days, a massacre. happened. Because Mr. Khamenei did not.

tolerate dissent and wanted to suppress. any calls of change. Activists now say. that more than 6,000 people were killed. in Iran's recent crackdown on nationwide. protests, and they warn that number. could rise. And yet despite the supreme leader's. success in holding back protests by. being so repressive, what we know, we've. talked about it a lot on the show, is. that behind the scenes the regime is.

getting weaker and weaker because the. United States and Israel, which grew increasingly tired of Iranian. state-sponsored terrorism, especially. after October 7th, they basically say. enough is enough. They start unleashing. waves of attacks against Iran, all of. which would seem to make the regime very. aware that its situation had become. precarious. But over the past couple of. days, we now know because the supreme. leader was taken out with relative ease,

it doesn't seem like they were being all. that careful or cautious. This was a. surprise, Michael. Nobody thought that they would find Mr. Khamenei above ground and in his. compound during a time where US military. had amassed warships and fighter planes. all around Iran. But at the end, he was. sitting in his office at 9:30 a.m. and. next door to him was a high-profile.

meeting of basically all the senior. military commands strategizing for the. war. And why, though? Why why were they. so accessible to these attacks that, like you said, everybody seemed to know. were coming? Well, I think that it's. possible that they got a little. complacent, that they got a little. sloppy. I think that they calculated. that strikes would happen in the middle. of the night, not at 9:30, 10:00 a.m. on. a work day where lots of children were.

in school and people were at work. And. they thought that they had a window to. congregate and plan for attacks that. they thought might be imminent in the. middle of the night. And I think they. miscalculated greatly. Fascinating. And. what many Iranian officials now say is. that Mr. Khamenei had refused to leave. his home and his compound and had. indicated to people around him that if. he's going to get attacked and war. starts, he would rather become a martyr. I think that in his mind, his legacy.

would be better protected if he was seen. as somebody who was not in hiding, was. not afraid, whereas if he would have the. fate of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and. get captured or if his regime would be. toppled, he would be humiliated, right? >> Mhm. So, I think there was this desire. by him to have the kind of ending that. he envisioned and he wanted. Right, which may be Iranian propaganda after. the fact or may contain some shred of.

truth. On the subject of the regime's. sloppiness or complacency, just how many. of its leaders did the US and Israel. kill? And for those of us not as. familiar with Iran's government, how big. a blow to the regime does it represent? It represents a massive blow to the. regime. Putting Mr. Khamenei aside, they killed. the commander-in-chief of the. Revolutionary Guards, the defense.

minister, and some other senior. officials, but Mr. Khamenei had planned. for this possibility. Mhm. He had. instructed everyone in leadership roles. to name four layers of succession. So, they planned for the idea that three of. every position in the government might. end up being killed in what ended up. being this weekend's attack and there. would still be someone to succeed that. person. Yes, exactly. Wow. So, at this.

moment, I mean, we're talking to you. around 3:00 p.m. Sunday, what is the. state of that succession in the Iranian. government? The state moved very swiftly. to project a sense of control. and orderly transition while they name a. successor for the supreme leader. >> Mhm. That seems to be where things are. standing. Okay, well, that's the projection of a. transition, but is the regime actually. in control of Iran and how do we know?

Right now, as of Sunday afternoon, the. regime is still in control of Iran. We haven't seen any major defections. They are still in control of security on. the streets. Their security apparatus. are all over the capital. They've set up. checkpoints and stopping cars and. Interesting. >> surveillance. They also seem to have maintained their. military ability to retaliate and.

strike. Still launching a barrage of ballistic. missiles at US military targets. They. are attacking Israel and they are firing. off missiles and drones to Arab. countries in the Persian Gulf. So, the succession is working to the. extent that the people who Khomeini. wanted to be in place in the event of. this attack are still the ones doing the. job. They're pressing the button, they're firing the missiles, they're. making sure the country is retaliating.

They wanted to make sure that there's no. power vacuum and at the moment we're not. seeing any evidence of a power vacuum. Mhm. I mean, the reason that matters so much, of course, is because President Trump. has been so explicit about his goal. here, regime change. He wants. the people of Iran to anticipate a power. vacuum and to fill it and to topple the. regime.

Well, the majority of Iranian people. have said that they want this regime. toppled, that they want a new Iran. But right now, I think the priority for. many Iranians is to find safety under. bombs and to make sure that their. families are safe and they survive and. they're scrambling to find food and. gasoline and shelter. We haven't really. seen yet a massive domestic uprising, but it's only day two and we don't know.

what's possible on day two. Yeah, they took out Mr. Khamenei on day. one and they're still continuing to. strike. >> [music]. >> I think it's going to take some time. to figure out what's going to happen in. Iran and whether or not. >> [music]. >> this regime will survive. >> [music].

>> Well, after the break, we're going to. talk about what it might look like. if the regime does not survive and what. it would take for it to be toppled by. its own people. We'll be right back. >> [music]. >> Farnaz, I want to return to a number you. mentioned.

much earlier in this conversation, 80%. 80% of Iranians in theory seem to oppose. the regime and could be ready to help. topple it if at the end of this military. bombardment. the regime is in a shambles. So, let's talk about that possibility. Based on what you know, what would it. take for the opposition in Iran to. become organized and confident enough to. try to do what President Trump is.

encouraging them to do and that many. [clears throat] of them have long wanted. to do, which is take down this regime. For the Iranian people inside Iran to be. able to mobilize in a way that they. would lay a central role in toppling the. regime, there has to be strategy and. planning and some sort of unity from. opposition leaders inside the country. and outside the country and also a sense. that the regime and its oppressive tools.

and its means of crackdown and killing. have been significantly weakened or. disassembled. >> Mhm. Otherwise, if people just come to. the streets again, as they did in. January and they're on armed, they risk. lethal crackdowns and death and killings. again. Understood. But do you see any evidence. that the US and Israel in the targets. that they've chosen and that they've. struck are trying to assist. the opposition and trying to disassemble.

the tools of oppression that you just. mentioned? We do. I think the difference in this. current war in comparison with the June. war with Israel is that the targets have. expanded to not just military missiles. and nuclear sites to structures and. buildings and institutions. that the government used to oppress and. repress. Uh Like what? >> Like the revolution court today was.

attacked. And this is a court that's. highly notorious that tried and. prosecuted political cases and. dissidents. They attacked the state. broadcasting, which is a tool of. propaganda. And they also went after two military. bases belonging to the Revolutionary. Guards and their underlings, Basij, the. volunteer plainclothes militia that we. see shooting and killing and beating. protesters. And they detonated those two.

bases. So, there there is some evidence. at least that the target is widening and. it certainly seems that the goal of the. United States and Israel. is to facilitate regime change on the. ground. Which may or may not ever come. to pass, of course. And if there won't be. any kind of a revolution here, is there, Faranak, a leader within the. regime that the US, that Israel might.

find tolerable? Who they see as somebody. who could, in theory, satisfy what remains of the regime, its. loyalists, potentially be acceptable to. the opposition, and. that the US and Israel and its leaders. feel they can do business with? Basically, the kind of person that the US found in. Venezuela after it arrested Nicolás. Maduro. It's interesting you bring up Venezuela. because Iranian sources were telling me. that one of the conversations they're.

having in private about succession and. about planning amongst themselves is the. question of who will be the Delcy of. Iran, referring to Venezuela's vice. president. And some of the names that have come up. are technocrats and former generals of. the Revolutionary Guards who are sort of. seen as centrists, pragmatists, people. who maybe would be open to a change of. course. One of the names is Ali.

Larijani, the head of the National. Security Council, who's effectively. running the country right now. General. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former. Revolutionary Guards commander, who's. the speaker of the parliament and has a. role in commanding the war now. He's. also one of the names that I have heard. I've also heard the name of former. president Hassan Rouhani, who's a kind. of a moderate cleric, but he's sort of. been outcast from the close circle of. Mr. Khamenei. So, these are some of the. names I've heard. But, I want to mention.

here that for that 80% who want. wholesome change and for the opposition. and dissidents no figure that is. associated with the Islamic Republic's. regime is going to be acceptable. Because every single one of these people. was part of a system and had a role in. those oppressions and killings and. repressions that have been part and. parcel of. this government for 47 years. Right.

>> But, the question is whether the US and. President Trump will ultimately decide. that he doesn't want to risk instability. in Iran, he doesn't want to risk. >> Mhm. civil war and would rather engage. with someone from that system that would. be willing to make concessions or not. Right. >> And we heard President Trump say today. that he's open to speaking to Iran's new. leaders and that he's heard that there. are some options for succession. So, I.

think he's kind of signaling to the. Iranian regime that if you do have a. character who is willing to give me what. I want and make the kind of concessions. that I want on nuclear and military and. missiles and policies. >> Then I will back that leader. If not. back him, at least I'll engage and. entertain the possibility of that. leader. That will be detrimental to the. aspirations of democracy and freedom for. the Iranian people. But, politics are a different matter. >> sense that would be at odds with regime. change and so, President Trump is going.

to have to decide what really matters. most to him. Right. Changing the regime. or creating a stable Iran. Those may be. in conflict. Right. And you know, I think it would be. hugely disappointing to many people in. Iran both inside and outside because you. know, President Trump for all the. reasons we talked about about sort of. the 80% that are celebrating the events. in Iran and the war, he's seen as a. figure who has helped their aspirations. for change right now, but I think that.

that could quickly change and they may. feel betrayed if the US strikes a deal. with the successors of Mr. Khamenei. Well, no matter who leads Iran next, I wonder if the events of the past few. days. more or less guarantees. that its government is really never the. same, even if it's an insider from the. regime running it. And. by that I really mean it's hard to. fathom Iran returning to the system of.

proxies and state-sponsored terror that. really defined Khamenei's 35 years in. power for the simple reason that. over time it resulted in. his own death. It. made the US and it made Israel believe. that the only way. to solve the problem was to take out the. leader. I think the Islamic Republic as we knew. it is over. Wow. I think the state that.

Mr. Khamenei ran, which was hostile to. the US, hostile to its Arab neighbors, hostile to Israel, and defined militancy. and terror and hostage-taking. and repression of its own citizens is. not sustainable. It's not sustainable. and cannot survive in the new realities. of the Middle East, where we've seen. Israel sort of prioritize its safety and. survival above all else post-October 7.

I don't think it is an Iran that will be. tolerated by its uh restive population. that want change. And uh given the all. the attacks we've seen in the region and. against Arab states, I don't think. Iran's neighbors will tolerate that kind. of a state and this feeling that they're. at risk of being attacked and sort of an. unpredictable. government next door that nobody knows, you know, what it will do and how it. will react. And I don't think the United.

States will necessarily tolerate it. either. So, I think all the odds are. stacked against the Islamic Republic. continuing as it has been for the past. 47 years. Well, just to end for an Oz, I wonder to. that point what members of. the Iranian opposition and the expat. world, the diaspora, you even, what you're allowing yourself. to hope for.

and to. dream of for Iran in this moment of such. extraordinary flux. and fear, but also possibility. Um. I'm Iranian-American. And on Friday, I thought that the possibility of ever. visiting Iran, of visiting my father's. graveside, or seeing my elderly. relatives was a distant dream.

Today, I have hope. Of returning? Of returning. A pretty. modest goal. You know, that's what a lot of Iranians. who've been exiled and who can't go back. say. They say that it's pretty bare. minimum to want to see your relatives. and visit your home country. And it's a right that has been robbed. from many people. And I I think. many Iranians the world over have a.

glimmer of hope. Well, let me ask about a perhaps less. modest set of possibilities. I'm I'm. thinking about the people. who were are shots. on Saturday. I mean, what do they dare to think about beyond. just visiting relatives back in Iran? They dare to dream of a free Iran. Where political prisoners are free, where young people who take to the. streets to demand for a better living.

are not shot and killed, and people are not struggling to make. ends meet because it's a resource-rich. country, where parents are not mourning their. children. >> [music]. >> Watching the videos of. people taking to the streets and. chanting [music] freedom, freedom in. reaction to Mr. Soleimani's killing, it may sound to an American or Western.

audience that [music] this is a modest. aspiration, but I think for the Iranian. people who have sort of long aspired and. worked toward having a free, >> [music]. >> democratic, secular country, this is a big [music] dream. And as a reporter who's covered Iran for. three decades, I never thought that I would be writing.

this news or, you know, reporting this. [music] So, I looked at the front page. of the New York Times today with the. headline. and thought, uh, wow. This is a This is a headline on a story. I never thought I would write. >> [music]. >> in my lifetime, yeah. Well, Farnaz, thank you very much. We really. appreciate it. Thank you for having me, Michael. >> [music]. >> In an interview on Sunday night with the. Times,

President Trump said that the American. military [music]. assault against Iran could last up to. four to 5 weeks. When pressed on his plan for who should. lead Iran's government, the president. [music] offered several seemingly. inconsistent visions. One scenario, he said, was that the. United States identified a cooperative. leader from inside the regime. Another scenario, he said, was that. Iran's elite military forces would.

simply lay down their weapons and. surrender to the people of Iran. >> [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need.

>> [music]. >> to know today. The Constitution can't be. changed by statute. The Constitution. says, "No declaration of war without. Congress." The president has called this. war [music] against Iran. On Sunday, congressional Democrats questioned the. legality of President Trump's military. strikes against Iran, [music]. saying that it was a clear-cut case. where he needed Congress's approval but. [music] failed to seek it. One of those Democrats, Senator Tim. Kaine of Virginia,

>> [music]. >> has introduced a resolution seeking to. end the use of American military forces. in Iran. [music] The president not only. did not come to Congress to seek a. debate or vote, he [music] acted without. even notification to the vast majority. of us. This is an illegal war. I have. And. as markets opened on Sunday night, oil. prices [music] rose 10%. highlighting the economic risks of the. conflict in Iran. The US-Israeli [music] attacks on Iran. could severely restrict oil and gas.

supplies around the world. Even if the. disruption is brief, >> [music]. >> it will almost certainly make energy. more expensive around the world. >> [music]. >> Today's episode was produced by Jessica. Chung, Mary Wilson, and Claire Tennis. Getter. It was edited by Liz O'Brien [music] and. Paige Cowett. Contains music by Alicia Etoo and Dan. Powell. Our theme [music] music is by Jim.

Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. The episode was engineered by Chris. Wood. >> [music]. >> That's it [music] for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow. >> [music].