Can the Cease-Fire in Gaza Hold?

from The New York Times I'm Rachel. Abrams this is the. [Music]. daily today as the ceasefire between. Israel and Hamas enters its Final Phase. no one knows who will control the future. of Gaza Israel Hamas or possibly. president. Trump my colleague Jerusalem bureau. chief Patrick Kingsley walks us through. this delicate moment and the questions.

hovering over the future of the. war it's Wednesday February. [Music]. 26 Patrick We're in the final days of. the first phase of the ceasefire deal. between Israel and Hamas which was. outlined very clearly in terms of what. each side had to give to the other and. now we're entering into this next phase. which is not yet negotiated and could. lead to more talks but it could also end.

up leading just to more war which we'll. get to in a moment but just to start how. in your estimation has this first part. of the process actually. gone several mini crises aside it has. gone roughly to plan and that plan was. to. exchange 33 hostages held in Gaza by. Hamas and its allies for roughly.

1500 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. held in Israeli jails just to. recap at the start of the war Hamas and. its allies raided Israel captured. roughly 250 hostages both dead and alive. brought them back to Gaza some of them. were exchanged in a previous hostage for. prisoner deal in late 2023.

handful have been rescued in Israeli. military operations but roughly 100 were. still in captivity in January when this. ceasefire was sealed and the deal allows. for roughly a third of them most of them. alive but some of them dead to be. swapped for Palestinian prisoners who. variously had been jailed 20 years ago. for their role in terrorist attacks on. his.

but also hundreds of Palestinians who. had been arrested without charge inside. Gaza by the Israeli military and held in. difficult conditions inside the Israeli. prison. archipelago and as I say the broad. picture is that those have mostly gone. as they were expected to but there have. been some immensely traumatic scenes for. both Israelis and pales Palestinians.

that have led to constant fears that. this initial ceasefire was about to. collapse tell us about those well every. Saturday the the choreography would go. like this the hostages would be released. from Gaza and then once they were free. the prisoners would be released from. Israel but the spectacles of both. releases Drew immense pain and anger on. both sides.

when the three or four hostages that. were supposed to be released that day. were were freed they were put up on. stage in front of cheering crowds to. bombastic. music often set against banners that. attacked Israel and sought to humiliate. the Israeli. military the hostages elves often looked.

extremely gaunt malnourished starved. which sent shock waves through Israeli. [Music]. society and sometimes they would be. interviewed on stage seemingly against. their will asked humiliating questions. about their time in captivity or or. asked to to send messages to the Israeli. political. leadership on the Palestinian.

side there were also some uncomfortable. scenes of prisoners emerging from. Israeli prisons in very bad shape some. of them were forced to wear clothes that. said words to the effect of we will. never forgive we will never forget a. reference to the crimes that they were. jailed for 20 years. ago and so there was anger among both. societies about the way that these.

releases were being conducted and that. culminated in perhaps the most. unsettling and disturbing hostage. release ceremony of the lot last week. when the bodies of three Israeli. civilians from the same family two very. young boys Ariel bias and his brother. kafir bias 4 years old and 8 months old. respectively at the time of their. capture in October.

2023 and their mother Shiri Bas a. 32-year-old. accountant those bodies were supposed to. be released back to Israel last Thursday. and they were handed over to members of. the Red. Cross in front of big crowds of. Palestinians and against the the visual. backdrop of Benjamin Netanyahu the. Israeli Prime Minister looking like a.

vampire dripping with. blood to imply that it's the prime. minister's fault that these three people. are dead exactly the Hamas claim was. that these two very young children and. their mother were killed in Israeli air. strikes and that Netanyahu and the. Israeli military was to blame for their. deaths along with the deaths of tens of. thousands of Palestinians and those.

images of of a vampiric Netanyahu seem. to be stuck to not only the banner on. the stage that was at the center of this. handing over ceremony but also on the. coffins themselves and this was seen in. Israel as enormously. disrespectful ghoulish essentially and. that impression was taken to the nth. degree once the bodies were examined.

back in. Israel the Israeli military said that. the two boys were not killed in Israeli. a strikes and that an autopsy had. revealed that they were killed by. militants inside Gaza after their. capture and then they revealed something. even more shocking that the body of. their mother Shiri bbas was not actually. her body at all it was the body of. someone else completely perhaps a. Palestinian woman who had been sent back.

either by mistake or by Design to Israel. and this was a shocking piece of news. for the Israeli public this family had. been one of the main emblems of Israeli. trauma on October the 7th and so to see. the spectacle of these two young. children and their mother being returned. in this way and then on top of that to. learn that the mother Shiri was in fact. still in Gaza was an immensely.

triggering and and. re-traumatizing event and was the body. of Sher Bas actually returned it was. ultimately Hamas said it searched again. in the place where the bius family was. buried alongside Palestinians killed. during Israeli air strikes at some point. in the course of the war and they. quickly found the right body and. returned it back to Israel and and that. family was finally able to have some. degree of closure but the fury of the.

Israeli government did not die down once. Shiri bass's body was returned the the. whole incident contributed to the. Israeli decision to delay the release of. the prisoners who were meant to be. exchanged for the bass's bodies I mean. all this as you said sounds just so. ghoulish the parading of these emaciated. people this mixup with the body.

given the reaction to all of this within. Israel and the fact that it has as you. mentioned held up the return of these. Palestinian prisoners what is Hamas. thinking here what is the strategy why. are the hostages being treated this way. I think there's a few different reasons. in part it's seen as a Counterpoint to. the way that Palestinian detainees and. and prisoners are being released in what. Palestinians see as a very humiliating. manner but it's also a means of. projecting power and authority they want.

to remind both the Palestinians of Gaza. and the people of Israel that despite 16. months of war that was meant to force. them from power in Gaza they are very. much still in charge and are they. actually in charge given how much damage. Israel has done to Gaza the. infrastructure killing their leaders. destroying the. tunnels it's hard to know exactly what. level of Authority or capacity they have.

in Gaza because we're not allowed in the. Israeli government is still not letting. journalists into Gaza however it does. seem from these videos and what. reporting we are able to do that they. are still the dominant force in Gaza and. if they want to organize a tramatic. rally to uh send off the bodies of. Israeli children on their way back to. Israel they can very much do that and. the message is very clear whatever the. Israeli government has said about.

killing thousands and thousands of Hamas. militants they still have some men left. they still have lots of vehicles they. still have lots of guns and any. discussion about uh the future of Gaza. and any discussion about an end to the. war has to take their presence into. account given that Israel did not. achieve its intended goal of eliminating. Hamas in the war where does that leave. the war and the ceasefire in this next.

phas it leaves us in a very uncertain. place all throughout this last 6 weeks. as the hostages were being exchanged for. prisoners Israel and Hamas were supposed. to have been negotiating through. mediators about a more wholesale. agreement to end the war and about the. future governance of. Gaza because they have such completely. different Visions for how that should. look the two have not been able to even.

start negotiations and that means we're. approaching the end of these 42 days. that constitute the first phase of the. ceasefire and that end at midnight on. Saturday night without a clear sense of. what's going to happen next so what are. the possible outcomes here after. Saturday night can you just walk us. through them the first and most likely. outcome is that the truce continues in a.

very informal unstructured way at least. for a few days the wording of the. current deal allows for the truth to. continue even if there is no agreement. about how the truth should continue as. long as there are negotiations still. taking place MH another option and this. is something that um has been proposed. in recent Days by Steve witkoff. president Trump's Middle East Envoy. is that there could be a brief formal.

extension of the ceasefire more or less. on the same terms that the seasar has. been observed thus far and that would. involve an exchange of a few more. hostages for several hundred more. prisoners and it wouldn't solve the. fundamental disagreement about whether. the war should end entirely or who. should govern Gaza after the war but it. would keep the AR m going for another.

week two weeks maybe even 3 weeks the. third option and it's extremely unlikely. that they'll reach this point is that. there might be a deal about who should. govern Gaza next should the war end. entirely but that's something that is. almost impossible to reach right now. just because the two sides are so far. apart about what that would look like so. if that both sides cannot come to a deal. by the weekend or an extension as you. described. is it possible that the war is just.

going to start again and and if so what. what is that going to look like it's. very possible whether that happens on. Sunday morning I'm not sure it's. probably more likely that that the. ceasefire would stut on for a little bit. longer but it is possible that the war. could resume prime minister Benjamin. Netanyahu of Israel said as much earlier. this week he said that Israel is ready. to go back to war and we understand from. our own reporting that there are very. extensive plans in place to return to.

fighting so basically the options here. are go back to war or make some sort of. short-term extension of the ceasefire. but are there any longer term options on. the table for a durable peace deal there. are plenty of longer term options that. have been suggested by governments. analysts politicians diplomats Arabs. Israelis westerners none of them are. viable because they all require a degree.

of compromise from the two main. [Music]. actors perhaps the most dramatic and. consequential has been the one proposed. in recent weeks by President Trump. himself you have to learn from history. history has you know just can't let it. keep repeating itself we have an. opportunity to do something that could. be phenomenal and I don't want to be.

cute I don't want to be a wise guy but. the Riviera of the Middle East this. could be something that could be so bad. this could be so magnificent but more. importantly than that is the people. that we'll be right. [Music]. back so Patrick how has president. Trump's quote unquote Riviera vision of.

the Gaza Strip affected the negotiations. over the ceasefire and what comes next. for Gaza well let's just start with what. the plan actually was today I'm. delighted to welcome Israeli Prime. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back to the. White House this was a proposal put. forth by President Trump in the White. House in a seemingly impromptu way as he. stood at El turn beside the. isra prime minister a few weeks ago the.

US will take over the Gaza Strip and we. will do a job with it too and in this. proposal president Trump suggested. depopulating Gaza situation because. they're living in hell and those people. will now be able to live in peace we'll. make sure that it's done world class. it'll be wonderful for the people. Palestinians Palestinians mostly we're. talking about and essentially forcing. its 2 million residents to leave their. homes and live for years in mainly Egypt.

and also Jordan and people can live in. harmony and in peace thank you all very. much thank you thank you very much thank. you and this was such an outlandish. proposal that no one really knew what to. do with it did the president of the. United States really think it would be. possible to move 2 million people from. one part of the world to another right.

so this is actually a more extreme. proposal than any American president I. think has proposed in modern times if. not ever so what has the reaction to it. been in Israel there's been a mixture of. enthusiasm and caution enthusiasm from. the Israeli right for years the Israeli. rightwing has wanted Israel to return to. Gaza which it occupied wholly between.

1967 and 2005 and reestablish Israeli. settlements throughout the territory. then there's the Israeli Center that's. more cautious that sees this as a pie in. the sky kind of plan that could cause uh. more disruption than it's worth and then. from the Palestinians you have a feeling. of abject horror that 75 years after. hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. were forced to leave their homes or or. or fled their homes during uh the wars.

surrounding Israel's creation Now. another generation of Palestinians would. in turn themselves be forced to leave. their homes for the second time in two. or three. generations yes and I can imagine to. those Palestinians it would feel a lot. like a second expulsion exactly in 1948. in the wars surrounding Israel's. creation somewhere north of 700,000.

Palestinians fled or were forced to flee. their homes in what has become the kind. of foundational trauma of Palestinian. history referred to by Palestinians and. indeed across the Arab world as the NABA. or an English catastrophe and the sense. that 2 million Palestinians in 2025. could be forced to leave their homes. however much this has been portrayed as. a humanitarian gesture by the Trump.

Administration feels very much like a. second NAA and where are the Arab. countries in all of this the ones that. Trump talks about in his plan Jordan and. Egypt and others because Trump has is. basically suggesting that they would. have to take in millions of Palestinian. refugees so what have they said in. response to that idea well at first they. displayed the same kind of horror and. anger that we saw from Palestinians. partly out of solidarity for the.

Palestinian cause but also the need to. care for and provide for such a large. number of people was considered an. immensely destabilizing idea that could. have both created social and political. chaos for the Egyptian and Jordanian. governments so they rejected this plan. and then gradually out of that horror. and rejection came a slightly different.

response which was not acceptance but it. was the realization that the Egyptians. the jordanians the Saudis other leading. Arab countries that are allied with the. US needed to come up with their own. response their own proposal for the. governance of postwar Gaza and that's. exactly what we see happening in the. capitals of the Arab world today. what's really striking here is that.

basically to put it another way even if. all these Arab countries hated this idea. that Trump floated out there it does. actually light a fire under them to meet. and start discussing other options. that's one way of putting it and it is. also now what the Trump Administration. and its top envoys is saying was the. intention of President Trump when he. made this proposal in the first place. Steve witkoff his Middle East Envoy said. last last week that President Trump.

didn't mean this literally he meant to. get the Arab world talking and proposing. their own ideas to help try to break. this deadlock about gaza's future that. has been hanging over the region for the. last 16 months if not the last 75 years. and what kind of plan are they talking. about exactly and more importantly how. would it actually work it's not yet. clear the leaders of the Arab world most. of them met last week in Riad to try and.

thrash out a proposal they're meant to. meet again next week in Cairo to talk. more from what we understand about. what's being discussed at these meetings. the main proposals are for the leaders. of the Arab world to have some kind of. oversight over a local Palestinian. governing Authority that does not. include Hamas in exch change for Israel.

promising that at some point in the. future Gaza and the West Bank the other. main territory where Palestinians live. under Israeli occupation will be able to. become their own Sovereign Palestinian. State the problem with this proposal is. that it requires both Hamas to give up. power and Israel to promise Palestinian. sovereignty neither of those two things. seem very likely at the moment right.

because basically each side wants. something that the other side at least. at this point is absolutely unwilling to. give up exactly that was the case before. President Trump made his proposal and it. Remains the case now and the whole thing. is reminiscent of trying to solve a. Rubik's Cube you turn the cube in One. Direction and you bring two squares. slightly closer to where you want them. to be but at the same time you dislodge. another Square bringing yourself back to.

where you were a moment ago in the. negotiations to try and solve the. Rubik's cube of the Gaza War all sides. including some of the people trying to. mediate have got their own preconditions. and own desired end goals that are. completely incompatible with those of. the others and to be specific Israel. wants a post for Gaza that does not.

involve Hamas governing it or exerting. any kind of military power Hamas wants a. postwar Gaza in which it still plays a. significant political role and it still. gets to keep its military Wing intact. posing a threat conceivably to Israel. meanwhile you also have the Arab leaders. from Egypt Jordan and El elsewhere now. trying to produce their own halfway.

house that would involve Hamas stepping. down but also in exchange for their. involvement Israel would need to promise. to give the Palestinians a state Israel. would be happy with the first bit. getting rid of Hamas they would not be. happy with the second bit giving the. Palestinians EST State this actually. sounds harder than a Rubik's Cube people. have actually solved a Rubik's Cube. exactly and the riddle of Gaza has not.

been solved in the last 60 months of War. but also not really over the last 75. years of the Israeli Palestinian. conflict ever since Israel was. established in 1948 the future of Gaza. has been a conundrum that no one has. been able to really solve least of all. now on the one hand Patrick it feels. like we are exactly where we were before. the war started except obviously now. there are tens of thousands of people.

who are dead there are more people who. are traumatized and radicalized but on. the other hand we do have some of these. leaders in the Arab world at the. negotiating table and so it feels like. maybe there's this slight possibility. that Trump may have thrown a big enough. curveball into the mix that the Log Jam. could actually be broken Solve the. Riddle of Gaza as you called it so can. you just kind of help put this all into. perspective for us well one of the. implicit consequences of President Trump.

proposing such a dramatic plan is it. really underscored the idea that Trump. is acting in lock step with Israeli. interests even more than President Biden. was perceived to. [Music]. be the supporters of that approach say. that it is likely to place more pressure.

on Hamas to compromise because it. believes that there is no daylight. between Israel and its biggest. benefactor the United. States the critics of that approach say. that rather than making Hamas more. likely to compromise it'll in fact make. Israel less likely to compromise because. it believes that it can return to war. return to the kinds of deadly and bloody. fighting that we saw until January with. the United States full.

support and that raises the Spectre of. the ceire breaking down if not in days. then at least in weeks and a return to. the devastating destruction that we've. seen over the last 16. [Music]. months Patrick thank you very much thank. you Rachel.

[Music]. we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you need to know. today on Tuesday a group of federal Tech. workers resigned rather than help Elon. Musk and his allies with their agenda to.

dramatically reshape the federal. government in a scathing letter to the. White House the 21 employees of the US. digital service said they would not. support what they described as the. breaking of critical systems and the. mishandling of sensitive data the. resignations come after musk's. Department of government efficiency in. just over one month has ended contracts. laid off workers and shuttered entire. federal. agencies and in a major concession to. president Trump Ukraine has agreed to.

give the United States money from its. mineral. resources the deal follows an intense. pressure campaign that included threats. and insults As Trump increasingly. pressed Ukrainian president vlodimir. zalinski for quote unquote payback in. exchange for continued support in. Ukraine's war with Russia the details of. the deal aren't clear yet including. whether president Trump has committed. any specific security support at all. [Music]. today's episode was produced by relle.

bonja Caitlyn O'Keefe Michael Simon. Johnson and Jessica Chung it was edited. by Patricia willins with help from Paige. cowt special thanks to Adam rasgon. contains original music by Diane Wong. Rowan nisto and Maran Lozano and was. engineered by Chris Wood our theme music. is by Jim brunberg and Ben lansburg of. wonderly. [Music].

[Music]. that's it for the daily I'm Rachel. Abrams see you tomorrow. [Music].