Can A.I. Already Do Your Job?

From The New York Times, [music] I'm. Natalie Kitroeff. This is The Daily. >> [music]. >> On Monday, we looked at the growing. pushback against sprawling AI data. centers [music] in communities across. America. Today, my colleague Kevin Roose. >> [music]. >> takes us inside one of the most. transformative technologies that. infrastructure is enabling. A new way [music] of programming that. may be the biggest development in.

artificial intelligence. >> [music]. >> since the launch of ChatGPT. >> [music]. >> It's Wednesday, February 18th. [music]. Okay, so the other day I slacked you, Kevin Roose, my colleague, my friend,

the host of The New York Times Tech. podcast, Hard Fork, and I asked you, "What is vibe coding?" Because this is a. thing I had been hearing about and I had. no idea what it was. And you answered me. roughly in the tone that one might use. with their very elderly grandmother, I. think. Is that. >> [laughter]. >> fair to fair to say? >> [gasps]. >> Well, I I am not agist. I I I think. people have lots of different levels of. comfort with technology. I think my tone. of voice was directed at you. specifically, Natalie, because I.

[laughter] know that you are younger. than me and so you have no excuse to to. be this confused by technology. Yeah, okay, fair enough. So, since then, I did. my own research as any young person. would do and I've come to the. understanding that vibe coding is in. fact very important. It appears to be. using AI in a way that is truly. revolutionary and I do think that I. cannot possibly be the only one who has.

not caught up to this. And so, I want to. ask you to just start by laying out the. basics for those of us who aren't there. yet. What is vibe coding? So, vibe coding is a term that was. coined about a year ago by a guy named. Andre Karpathy, who's a former. programmer at OpenAI, very well known. out here in Silicon Valley. And he was. describing this thing that he was doing. using these new AI coding tools, which.

is that instead of learning a. programming language and writing the. code line by line by himself, he would. just sort of let the program write the. code for him and build software that. way. Let the vibes do the work. Let the. vibes do the work, exactly. And. suddenly, for the first time, about a. year ago, you didn't have to know how to. code to build software. You could just. use these tools, they would help you. along the way, and you could just kind. of oversee them as they worked. So, what does that actually look like?

You experimented with it. What did that. do for you? Yeah, so I tried vibe coding. about a year ago when this term first. emerged, and I would build these little. test tools for myself. I built an app. called Lunchbox Buddy, which was. basically a way to help me pack my son's. lunch by just taking a photo of whatever. was in my fridge and giving it to the. tool and saying like, "What are the. different combinations of things I could. put in this four-compartment lunchbox?".

Oh my god, that's amazing. So useful, [laughter] I want it. Yeah, I I built some other stuff, too, but honestly, it was kind of clunky. The. tools basically, you still needed to. know a little bit about programming to. be able to do this, and they were pretty. buggy. I tried to build some stuff to. help me sort through my emails, and it. couldn't do it. It was mostly useful to. professional programmers. And it doesn't stay that way, I'd. imagine, because here we are talking. about it as something that is.

revolutionary. So, what happened? So, the big innovation between last year. and now is what is called agentic. coding. Agentic coding is basically just. a fancy way of saying an AI system that. can do much more of the process. autonomously. So, you still do have to. like have the idea for what you want to. build, but then with these new tools you. can just sort of give them a project and. they can make a plan, they can decide. what programming languages they want to.

use. They can even create their own. little team of agents and say okay, this agent's going to go off and do the. research, this agent's going to build. the website, this agent's going to test. it. And so you sort of have a little. team of robots working for you to do. whatever task you've given it. My dream, a team of robots. Just sketch out why. that's a big deal, Kevin. Well, because these models are getting. much better very quickly and they are. now able to do the kinds of tasks that. would take humans hours or sometimes.

even days to do. And so they are working. their way up into the entry-level. functions in a lot of white-collar. industries. The models themselves are. also getting much better. They're not. hallucinating as much as they used to. They're not making as many silly. mistakes as they used to. They are doing. better at things like reasoning and. solving complex math and science. problems than they used to. So, sort of. across the board, these things are. getting better at a pace that is. surprising even the people who are. building them.

Okay, I want to ask you about the. transformational potential of that, about the impact on jobs, but first just. tell me at a really practical level, where do you see these new tools? Like, what or who is driving this agentic. phase? So, this is largely being driven by a. handful of companies that are sort of. the leaders in this AI race. So, one of. them is OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. They have a new agentic coding system.

called Codex. I have been using Claude. Code, which is made by Anthropic, another AI company. And these are the. tools that have come out just in the. past couple of months that have people. feeling like things are really. accelerating. Claude Code sort of blew. up. Millions of people have been using. it. They are doing increasingly complex. tasks with them. People are using these. in their jobs in the software industry. And what's really changed is that if you. talk to people at the big AI companies.

who used to program, who used to write. code by hand, they'll say, "I I don't. write any code anymore. I basically. supervise this team of agents, and I. kind of orchestrate them and set them. off toward tasks, and then I go get. lunch, and I come back, and the work is. done.". Okay, I want to understand this. I want. to understand the story of this. I think. we should pick one, and it sounds like. Claude Code has been the one that's been. blowing up. So, tell me the story of. this model. How did it start? How did it. get created?

>> [music]. >> So, this. app, Claude Code, started as a side. project. Basically, an engineer at. Anthropic named Boris Cherny had an. idea. He was trying to sort of get a. sense of what Claude, Anthropic's. chatbot, could do. So, he said, "Well, what if I just give it my computer? What. if I install Claude inside the terminal. app, which is the app that you use to. write code and interface with your. computer if you're a programmer? And what would happen if I just set.

Claude loose inside my computer with a. bunch of tools? Like, give it the. ability to write [music] scripts, to. create files, to organize things, to. debug code." And he starts seeing. something really interesting happening. around the office. His colleagues are starting to use this. tool to do their jobs. They're starting. to program with it. It started with the engineers. They're. saying this is really great for [music]. coding. At first, it's maybe 20% of. their engineers, and then it's 40%, and.

now all of them are using it. But, it's. also being used by people who are not. professional programmers, people in. marketing and sales and finance are. using this not to just build little. apps, but to automate parts of their. jobs. So, it's like really catching on way. beyond, you know, the technical people. Like normies are using it. Exactly. What people have discovered is. that it can do lots of stuff. It can. automate your email. It can create.

dashboards for things. It can reorganize. the files on your computer. It's sort of like you just have a. computer that can use a computer now. This is starting to blow my mind, but I. want to see it in action. Can we make. something together? Can you make. something for me? How How does this. work? Okay, I would love to show you. So, what I'll do is I will share my. screen here. I'm excited and a little scared.

>> [laughter]. >> Don't be scared. It'll be fine. Okay. So, this is the terminal app. Have. you spent much time in the terminal app. on your computer? The answer is not. going to surprise you. No. >> [laughter]. >> Okay. So, I had not either before I. started using Claude Code. >> Okay, this looks technical though, Kevin. Can I just say this is not my. chat GPT window. No, this looks like hardcore programming. things. And I think the interface is. what has made a lot of people feel like. this is a tool that they can't use.

because they don't write code. Right. >> So, I will just say I do not write code. I am not a coder. You're closer to me. than them, you're saying. I am much. closer to to you than them. So, okay, here we are. We're inside. Cloud Code. And I'm just going to give it a prompt. I'm going to say build a website for my. colleague Natalie. Kitroeff. And I noticed Natalie that you. don't have a personal website, at least. that I could see. Do you have Do you. have one? I don't. I'm kind of given.

over my identity to the New York Times. >> you need one. You are a big-time podcast. host now, and so you need a website for. yourself. So, she's the co-host of The. Daily. and. the site should look How do you want it. to look? Sleek and professional? Yes, and cool. Make me look cool, please. Thank you. >> And cool. >> [laughter]. >> and professional. Make her. >> And also cool. Sorry. Thank you. Yeah.

>> [laughter]. >> She really likes the Philadelphia. Eagles, so maybe do it in Eagles colors. This is getting better and better. All right, so I I hit enter, and it says. burrowing, which is one of its words. that it uses for thinking. >> [music]. >> Do we know what it's doing? I promise. you I do not understand what it's doing. >> [laughter]. >> Like a professional coder would know. what it is doing. Right.

>> All I know is that it's doing something. And it's going to think about it, it's. going to make a plan, and then it's. going to start building. How long does. it take? It depends on the complexity of. the task. I've had [music] tasks that. have taken 10, 20, 30 minutes before, but I think this is going to be just a. minute or two at most. And the idea is. that it's kind of scraping the internet. for information about me. Did you tell. it to make sure that everyone knows I'm. young, also? I'm just. >> [laughter]. >> We can add that in a subsequent version.

>> [music]. >> So, it wrote 644 lines of code. Okay, so it's live. Let's just see what. it looks like together. What was that, a minute? That took uh a. minute and 36 seconds. Look at that. Wow. We've got a little. like Eagles green website. >> see that. Oh my god, it knows that I was. in Mexico as a foreign correspondent. Uh-huh. Oh, the spirit of the daily. The. best journalism doesn't just inform, it.

makes you feel the weight of reality and. then pushes you to care. It's a quote that is attributed to the. spirit of the daily. Which is not a real person. >> [laughter]. >> So, because I didn't give it a lot of. information, it uh it just sort of made. some stuff up to fill the space, but the. cool thing about this is now, if you. want to change it, you can just go into. this window and you can say, "Hey, that's uh.

fake quote. Can you make sure all the. info on the site is. accurate?" Yeah. I'm thinking we should. maybe add like an Easter egg to this. Um. something fun for for people who go to. your website and really want the full. Natalie Kitroeff experience. Okay. What's it going to be? So, you're a big. football fan. There was a video game. called Tecmo Bowl, very early football. video game. And so, I would like to see. if we could put a version of Tecmo Bowl.

that's playable, like a little playable. video game on your website. >> Wow, can I also hire you? I feel like. you're good at this. You're good at. talking to Claude. So, I'm going to go. back to my terminal app here and I'm. going to say, "That's great. Could you add a playable. Tecmo Bowl style. video game to the site?". Oh, it says, "This is going to be fun. So, it's writing hundreds of lines of. code.

I mean, this is insane. It's wild. I mean, this. is why people are freaking out about AI. right now, because this was not possible. even a couple of months ago, and now it. is. Okay, so now our our video game is done. Should we go see it? Yes, please. Okay, so here's Natalie's Tech Mobile. Oh my god. >> And do you see it? >> Oh my god. Yeah, I do. So, it says press. space to hike. and arrow keys to move. Okay, so Oh, we.

got to run. We got to run. Oh. Touchdown. Eagles. >> Yeah, go birds. This is incredible. Wow, this is like I feel like I'm going to. draw a lot of people to my new website. with this feature. Yeah, you're going to. be getting so much traffic. >> Okay. >> [music]. >> So, that is Claude code, and that is how. these new coding tools work. How do you. feel? I feel pretty blown away. I. honestly can't believe that we just made. my first website, and that it has a. video game on it.

I have so many questions that I want to. ask you about it, and we'll do that. after the break. We'll be right back. [music]. Kevin, I have to just acknowledge that. it is honestly an amazing feeling to see. this AI agent at work. It's probably the. first time that I have felt awe at this. technology since ChatGPT came out. It's. been a really long time, and there is.

something a little bit unnerving about. it. And so, I just wonder for you, what. do you make of this moment? What do you. make of this change that we're seeing in. these tools? Yeah, I think this is a big deal in the. world of AI. This is something that. people inside the AI industry have been. saying is coming for for long time, but. until recently, people couldn't really. see it for themselves or try it for. themselves. And, you know, ChatGPT has. been around for 3 years now, and for.

most people, the novelty is sort of. wearing off. You know, it's a fancy. Google. You can get a meal plan. You can. sort of give it some questions. It can. help you write your emails or memos or. things like that. But, it doesn't sort. of shock you anymore. This feels. different to me and I think to a lot of. other people when you can actually build. something useful without knowing how to. write code. And I think this is what. people think is the thing that's going. to take AI from just kind of being a. fancier Google to something that.

genuinely changes how people work. When you say that this is something that. the tech companies have been saying is. coming [clears throat] for a long time, what is the it that is coming? What. makes it special? Is it just the. complexity of the stuff it can do, or is. it the utility of it? I think it's the utility, but it's also. the economic value. This kind of agentic. system can actually do work. It can do. tasks. It can perform things that humans.

would have had to do by hand. So, it is. sort of a step in the direction of. making these things actually kind of. members of the workforce in some sense, where you could have a company with some. human employees and then a whole bunch. of AI agents doing tasks. Okay, let's. talk about that because obviously when. we're talking about economic value, what. that presumably means for the people. that run these companies is lowering. labor costs by potentially eliminating. jobs.

Yeah, so that's the big question is will. this just help people at work? Will this. kind of agentic coding tool make people. faster and more efficient and more. productive and give them a new powerful. tool in their toolkit, or will it start. to replace people? We are starting to. see in the data some signs that this. kind of tool is maybe displacing young. software developers. There was a study. from Stanford recently that looked at. payroll records and found that. employment for young software engineers, just people who are early in their.

careers, has dropped about 20% from its. peak in late 2022. So, companies that. used to hire five or 10 people to write. code for them may only need one or two. now with a bunch of AI tools. Can I ask, we were pointing to issues. with my beautiful website. How good is this stuff? I mean, can it. debug itself? Because I guess I'm seeing. that there is also a lot of doubt and. skepticism that you can really do this.

only with an AI tool at this point. >> [gasps]. >> Well, coding is an interesting test. ground for this because in some sense it. is very verifiable. The code either runs. or it doesn't. And so, in some sense. it's very easy to tell. I mean, the. website we built you, it works. You can. go visit it on the web. It has a. playable video game inside of it. >> Right. >> So, yes, there are a lot of software. engineers who are still saying these. coding agents, they're not perfect, you. still kind of need to hold their hands. and oversee them if you want to get.

really useful code that you could like. deploy inside of a big business, but. that is maybe temporary because they're. improving at a very rapid rate and we're. seeing that some of the things that. these tools couldn't do even a few. months ago it's now doing in ways that. are correct and and useful. Well, can you just tell me quickly like. what's making this improve so quickly? So, part of it is just that the models. themselves, the things that are sort of. underneath tools like Claude Code, are.

just getting better very rapidly. And. part of that is because they're being. trained on more coding data. So, they're. sort of improving over time. The other. really interesting and really important. thing that is starting to happen is that. these AI tools are building versions of. themselves. They are starting to improve. themselves. >> What? What does that mean? So, OpenAI's latest coding model, which. is called GPT-5.3 Codex, was used to.

help build itself. Early versions of the. model were used to make changes to the. training runs for later versions. So, this is happening across all of the. leading AI companies right now, which is. that you have these systems which can. build websites, which can automate. certain financial or legal tasks. They. can also help train AI models. And so, we're starting to see. >> So, AI models making AI models, just to. be clear about what we're saying here. Yes. Is that scary to you? Because it gives.

me the vibe of a sci-fi reality. Yeah, this is a sort of scenario that. we've heard about in science fiction for. years, where you have AIs that are. becoming increasingly capable. They're. building better and better AIs. Within. the AI community, there's this idea, this phrase of of the intelligence. explosion, which is when you have these. systems that are doing what's known as. recursive self-improvement, building. better and better versions of. themselves. And so, that is one. possibility that these systems just.

start to accelerate their improvements. to the point where they are sort of. doing all of this autonomously without. human involvement. Now, there are some. people who think this is still a. far-fetched scenario, but just look at. the trajectory. I mean, a year ago, you. had these very clunky AI vibe coding. tools. Now, they're running autonomously. for sometimes hours at a time. They can. build and maintain real software, and. they're starting to help build the next.

versions of themselves. So, I think we. we are right to be paying attention to. this, and I think it's irresponsible to. sugarcoat what's happening. I have. [snorts] to say for the companies and. for the people that have been involved. in AI, this also has to really be a kind. of proof of concept moment for them. because there has been so much. skepticism about AI over the last year. A lot of fear about frothiness in the. market, about whether we're in a bubble, about whether AI is really going to live. up to its potential. And what you've. described is a transformative tool that.

can be incredibly useful. And with that, the potential for real job loss. So, any. way you slice it, this is AI doing what. they said it probably would. Yeah, it is. And I think, you know, I. don't blame people for questioning last. year whether we were in an AI bubble. I. think most people up to that point had. only used things like ChatGPT, which. are, you know, very capable on their.

own, but I can understand why people. would look at that and then look at the. billions of dollars being spent on data. centers and infrastructure and think. like, "Okay, isn't this a little bit. much?" But the bet that these AI. companies were making is that you could. actually turn this stuff into useful. tools that would be able to do real. valuable work in the economy. And I think we are starting to see that. bet pay off. Kevin, I think it's worth pausing here. for a moment. Like, it's very easy to.

talk about job loss from all this in the. abstract, but at a practical level, if a. whole class of workers just lose their. jobs, if those jobs cease to exist, we'd. be talking about a pretty massive impact. on the economy writ large. And I mean, this could hypothetically just be the. very beginning of agents like these can. do other forms of work, you could see. many more jobs wiped out. So, I just. want to ask, how likely is it really.

that these tools create that kind of job. loss? And what are the AI companies. saying about it? So, I'll answer the first part, which is. that I don't know how likely it is. I. have intuitions and guesses, but no one. really knows how this is going to go. It. could be that there's a short-term spike. in the demand for software engineers. because everyone's building new kinds of. software, and they need people to manage. it all. Mhm. And it could be that these. tools just never wipe out millions of.

jobs en masse. But the AI companies and. the people who run the companies are. increasingly worried about this. So, Dario Amodei, who's the CEO of. Anthropic, which makes Claude, has. warned that he believes that AI could. potentially eliminate half of all. entry-level white-collar jobs within the. next 5 years. Wow. So, that could be. wildly off, but even if it were. partially true, even if it were 10% or. 20%,

that would still be a massive change to. the labor market and to the lives of. millions of people. Yeah, there's. something deeply unsettling about all of. that. Yeah, I agree, and I myself feel. very uncertain about this. And I think. there are a lot of people in the tech. industry who are very excited about. these tools cuz it's letting them, you. know, build a bunch of stuff very. quickly. But as I'm hearing from more people in. white-collar, knowledge-work fields, they're just very anxious right now.

People are really uncertain. They don't. know if the skills they're building are. obsolete. College students don't know. what they should be studying so they can. get a job after they graduate. People. are really getting nervous about how. quickly this technology is improving and. the possibility that it could make the. future look very different. Okay, and I want to ask about that. future. I mean, are we on a runaway train? The speed.

with which this is changing feels hard. to even capture, honestly. And I wonder. if you think about the progress made. over 1 year, what's the next year? What can we. expect? I mean, my honest prediction is that a. year from now these agentic tools will. be dramatically better, right? They'll. handle big complex problems. You won't. have to hold their hand as much. They. will become full-fledged members of the.

workforce. And, you know, a lot of. companies will still do things the old. way cuz institutions are very slow to. change, as we know. But, there will be. this sort of new kind of company that is. emerging with AI work at the center of. it. And, I think that's going to be a. really fast-growing part of the economy. I think the job market impacts that. we're starting to see hints of today. will become much clearer a year from. now. But, honestly, I lose a lot of. visibility myself. I mean, I have.

stopped trying to predict more than. about 6 months out because that's about. as far as I can see right now. I would. not have predicted a year ago when vibe. coding first came into my consciousness. that it was going to be capable of doing. all of this today. >> [music]. >> So, I think the most we can say right. now is that these tools are getting. better at a at a very fast and. accelerating rate, and that they keep. doing things that are surprising and.

useful. And, there's a lot of unknowns about. what that will mean for the future of. human work. Kevin, one of my favorite humans, thank you so. much for coming on the show. I really. appreciate it. You're welcome. And, we. should also thank Claude, who built you. that beautiful website. >> Thank you, Claude. >> [laughter]. >> He's been a good bot. He has. Yeah. >> [music].

>> For more on the latest developments in. agentic coding, listen to Hard Fork. >> [music]. >> wherever you get your podcasts. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. [music]. We meet tonight at the crossroads, at point of decision. >> [music]. >> Shall we expand, be inclusive, find unity and power,

or suffer division and impotence? The Reverend Jesse Jackson, >> [music]. >> America's most influential black leader. in the decades between the death of. Martin Luther King Jr. and the election. of Barack Obama as president, died on. Tuesday. He was 84. I know abandonment, and people being mean to you, and saying you're nothing and nobody, >> [music]. >> and can never be anything. I understand.

Jackson, [music] who worked closely with. Dr. King, became the first black man to. mount a major nationwide campaign for. president. In his 1988 campaign, [music] Jackson. turned his own life story, which began. in poverty, into a rallying cry for a. new kind of Democratic Party. [music]. I understand. I wasn't born in the hospital. >> [music]. >> Mama didn't have insurance.

I really do understand. Born in a three-room house. Bathroom in the backyard. >> [music]. >> Slop jar by the bed. No hot and cold running water. In one. [music] of his most famous speeches, delivered at the Democratic National. Convention in 1988, Jackson declared. that his life experience had taught him. that what bound working Americans was. not [music] party, nor race, but the.

shared experience of struggle. I'm a. working person's person. That's why I understand you whether. you're black or white. I understand. work. Jackson won almost 7 million votes in. the Democratic primary for president. I. was born in the slum, but the slum was not born in me. He. failed to win the nomination, but he'd cemented his place [music] as a. defining figure in American public life. >> make it. Hold your head high. >> [music]. >> Stick your chest out.

You can make it. IT GETS DARK SOMETIMES, [music]. BUT THE MORNING COMES. Don't you surrender. SUFFERING BREEDS CHARACTER. CHARACTER BREEDS FAITH. IN THE END, FAITH WILL NOT BE THE SUPPORT. WE MUST NEVER SURRENDER. AMERICA WILL GET BETTER. and better. Keep hope alive. Keep hope alive. Keep hope alive. On tomorrow night, [music]. and beyond,

keep hope alive. >> [music]. >> Today's episode was produced [music] by. Nina Feldman, Ricky Novetsky, and Olivia. Nat, with help from Devon Greenleaf and. Mustafa Mirza. It was edited by Brendan Klinkenberg, Paige [music] Cowett, and Lisa Chow. Contains music by Diane Wong, Dan. Powell, [music].

and Will Reed, and was engineered by. Chris Wood. That's it for The Daily. I'm Natalie. Kitroeff. See you tomorrow. >> [music]. >> Mhm.