Biden’s Slipping Support

from New York Times I'm Michael babbaro. this is a special episode of The. Daily today a major times poll finds. that since President Biden's poor. performance in the first presidential. debate voters doubts about his mental. Fitness have deepened and Donald Trump. has taken by far his biggest lead of the. campaign.

I spoke with my colleague Shane. goldmacher about what the results could. mean for Biden's. [Music]. future it's Thursday July. 4th Shane thank you for coming on with. not a ton of notice on a very busy day. for you happy to be on we don't normally. publish an episode on a national holiday.

July 4th but we felt the results of this. poll were significant enough and. newsworthy enough that it was worth. departing from that tradition I mean in. the time that I've been to the times and. covering our polls this has been by far. the most anticipated poll that we've put. out and the reason it's so anticipated. is that tens of millions of Americans. watched the debate last week and one of. the biggest questions about Joe Biden's. political future.

has been how did voters actually process. what they saw on stage right what did. they make of a democratic. nominee struggling openly at times to be. coherent to offer cogent answers would. it affect the race that's been one of. the fundamental questions and the. storyline out of the White House and in. Wilmington where Biden's campaign is. headquartered is that this debate was. just a blip they put out their own. survey showing that it hadn't made a.

change between before the debate and. after notably they were behind in the. survey that they released themselves but. really people have been waiting for. independent polling to take a look at. the state of the race after that. debate and enter the New York Times sien. pul what did we find on this very big. highly anticipated question we found. that Donald Trump had the biggest lead. he's ever had in a New York Times poll. he's ahead of Joe Biden 49% to 43% so he.

is a 6 percentage point lead among. likely voters and an even larger nine. percentage points among registered. voters wow nine percentage points is is. Meaningful yeah and it's not just the. size of his lead it's the direction so. the race shifted three percentage points. in Trump's Direction in just the span of. about a week and the reason we know that. is the time's actually pretty intense. inally plan to do two polls one right.

before the debate to get a snapshot of. the race heading into this key moment it. was our first poll since Trump's. conviction and it set a baseline where. did the race stand before these two men. met on stage and then we began polling. immediately after to figure out if and. how the debate had changed the Dynamics. and what we see are some real changes. right and just a summarize a Sixpoint.

Trump lead over Biden among likely. voters a 9-point lead among registered. voters and that three-point swing those. are striking data points in a race that. has seemed very close throughout and was. expected to be very close in the end I. really think it's the totality of the. poll that makes it a significant. snapshot of the state of the race you. have the overall margin with Donald. Trump leading by more than he's ever LED. in a New York Times poll and you have on.

the critical question of age for an. 81-year-old president who just struggled. to perform on the national stage growing. concerns about his ability to govern and. it's basically everyone in the poll a. majority of every demographic Geographic. and ideological group that we tested. thought that Joe Biden is too old to Be. an Effective president and that includes. people who are voting for Jo Biden how.

much did that perception of Biden's age. and is he too old to be president change. since the debate so before the debate. Democrats already had concerns about Joe. Biden's ability to do the job and those. concerns got bigger after the debate. they Rose eight percentage points to 59%. of his own party and as worrisome for. the Biden campaign they also Rose. further among Independents all the way.

up to. 79% overall what percentage of everyone. pulled says that President Biden is too. old to Be an Effective president overall. 74% of Voters in the survey said that. Joe Biden is too old to Be an Effective. president wow as you said Shane a. meaningful percentage of the voters we. pulled will still vote for Biden despite. these concerns because he's getting I.

think the number was 43% of the vote. which means some meaningful group of. those who are concerned about his age. are still going to vote for him so I'm. curious when you really get into the. results of this poll which voters do you. find since the debate have thrown their. support behind Trump and have helped him. get this Sixpoint or ninepoint lead. depending on how you slice it over Biden. I can give you an answer with just one. one word and it's men the voters who.

swung to Donald Trump in this survey. pretty decisively were men H he was. leading among men going into the debate. he was leading by 12 percentage points. among men before the debate but. afterward that lead has almost doubled. to 23 percentage points how do you think. about. that I it makes a lot of sense in the. framing that Donald Trump is taking to. the race overall which is this sort of.

machismo that he campaigns on his entire. frame for the 2024 election is one of. strength versus weakness his campaign. has been designed to appeal in a lot of. ways to men right after he was convicted. of falsifying records related to don't. forget a hush money payment made to a. porn star the first event he did was at. a UFC fight and he stayed until 1: in. the morning right there is this sort of. male energ.

that the Trump campaign has very. intentionally tried to tap into and I. think a debate that showed him in much. more command than Joe Biden seems to. have jostled some of these men in his. direction right and of course for most. of the Trump era Women Voters have voted. much more heavily for Democrats and in. the post debate poll Joe Biden's lead. among women actually ticked up too he is.

now leading by 8 percentage points the. problem for him is that lead is so much. smaller than the Trump Advantage among. men Shane was there any good news in. this Poll for President. Biden how much would you like to squint. Michael I think there are some glimmers. of good news for Joe Biden we talked. about how Independence now see Joe Biden. as increasingly old and really look on. that age a lot like Republicans at this.

point in the Topline question of do you. pick Biden or Trump right now Trump. actually lost a small amount of ground. in this survey among independent voters. H it's just that he gained so much more. among Republicans and Biden lost so much. more among Democrats that it ended up. being a net negative for Joe Biden. interesting thus glimmer not really. necessarily pure good news the other. glimmer of good news for Joe bid.

is that while Democrats are increasingly. worried about how old he is they. actually didn't move away from him on. the basic question of should he Remain. the Democratic party's nominee the share. of democratic voters who think he should. no longer be the Democratic nominee. ticked up ever so slightly but it's not. a significant movement away from Biden. in a way that some of his advisers might. have feared that's interesting and I. suppose good news for Biden after this.

debate but I recall our guest on the. debate night when we did that episode of. St hearnen reminding us that the point. of this debate the reason why Joe Biden. agreed to do this debate was to try to. reassure Democrats of his place as the. nominee and to hopefully in a poll like. this find that more and more Democrats. want him to be the nominee and aren't. worried about that it doesn't sound like. this poll finds that at all I mean this.

was one of the fundamental things that. the Biden campaign was trying to. accomplish they wanted to reunite the. Democratic party behind him to get. people to focus on the contrast the. threat of Donald Trump right to Rally. behind Joe Biden as the one and only. alternative to stopping Donald Trump. this fall to take a race that a lot of. people have tuned out and get them to. tune in and what the poll found is that. yes more people are paying more. attention to the race now but on those.

questions of are Democrats further. behind Joe Biden it actually added. questions to that rather than answering. them I want to ask about something that. people around the president are saying a. lot since this debate happened which is. bad debates happen they point to the. fact for example that President Obama. had a rough debate against Mitt Romney. in 2012 he dipped in the polls came back. how are you and your reporting and.

thinking about this poll contemplating. the idea that what we're seeing here is. a momentary problem for President Biden. not necessarily a permanent one I think. there's a big fundamental difference. between the 2012 race which you're right. Barack Obama had a bad night he did dip. in the polls he recovered and he won. pretty comfortably by the end of that. race and what we saw in this debate. which is the struggles that Joe Biden.

had fed into the fundamental questions. and weaknesses that he's had in this. entire election which is voters. questions about his ability to serve as. president at age 81 and to continue to. serve as president until age 886 and so. it wasn't just about oh well he gave a. really bad answer on you know Medicare. or he gave a really bad answer on the. economy or he flubbed a taxes question. or he he didn't answer abortion right. cuz by the way he did have the. particular issue struggles the bigger.

problem for him in the debate is that on. the question that most voters have about. him can he continue to do the job they. left with an answer that left them less. confident in his ability to do the job. and in that way it's fundamentally. different than the Obama campaign in. 2012 so Shane it's hard to. imagine this poll doing anything to. quiet the very real Panic that has.

erupted within the Democratic party over. Biden's candidacy if anything I have to. suspect it's going to deepen it look. Michael the campaign was so worried. about this poll that they actually sent. out an internal staff memo on Wednesday. morning prebudding the findings kind of. dismissing the result before they even. knew what it was. and the reason why is that the Biden.

campaign has been nervous this is the. kind of empirical evidence that can be. used to try to push him out of the race. which is something that prominent. Democrats have already started to. do we'll be right. back so Shane let's talk about how this. has all been playing out within the.

Democratic party within the Biden. campaign over the past few days and as. you hinted at just before the break how. this new polling is potentially going to. fit into that and just to note in our. last episode about this with our. colleague Peter Baker the discussion the. idea of replacing Biden as nominee. because of this debate performance had. mostly been confined to pundits and a. handful of former elected officials. which had given it an air of being kind. of of a fringe conversation my sense is.

that that's started to change so just. bring us up to. speed yeah it has moved from cable. pundits to Capitol Hill and that is a. very important shift I think uh like a. lot of people I was pretty horrified by. the debate you had Senator Sheldon White. House a liberal from Rhode Island saying. he was horrified Michigan congresswoman. Debbie jingle says one interview isn't. going to fix this you have some. important members of Congress in key.

swing States like Michigan I want to see. him talk to the American people saying. that voters are worried about this issue. and tell them why he can do the job and. what he's going to deliver and that he's. got the stamina to do it and then on. Tuesday you really have the beginning of. a damn. [Music]. break and we don't know just how big the. leak is going to be yet but we do know. that he's leaking important support as a.

college student I did a lot of debating. and I think you had Jim curn who is one. of the president's closest allies who. delivered an endorsement to Joe Biden in. 2020 that helped deliver him the. presidency and the Democratic nomination. this party should not in any way do. anything to work around uh Miss Harris. he began talking about what he would do. if Joe Biden wasn't in fact the leader.

we should do everything we can to. bolster her whether was in second place. or at the top of the ticket and he said. he would back his vice president KLA. Harris and then you had Nancy Pelosi we. all have been in touch with uh people. close to the president so it's not a. question of not having an opportunity uh. to make our concerns known or who's one. of the most revered names in democratic. politics almost going a step further now.

again I think it's a legitimate question. to say is this an episode or is this a. condition and saying the questions about. Joe Biden's mental Fitness those. questions that we saw jumping among. Democrats in our poll that that is a. legitimate line of inquiry for the. public now her spokesperson later said. she still continues to support Joe Biden. but it's pretty hard to unring a bell. like is this an episode or is this a.

condition you know when my wife and I. watched the debate last Thursday we were. so hoping for the momentum to overcome. the lag that we've had in and of course. Joe Biden then had the first Democratic. member of Congress officially call for. him to step aside and that's Lloyd doet. a progressive from Texas I was so moved. by that evening that the next morning I. was out to talk on the floor of Congress. with our leadership and with as many of.

my colleagues as I could find to express. the view that it was time for a. replacement and for President Biden to. step. [Music]. aside right and as we're sitting here. and I should say we're talking at around. 400 p.m. on Wednesday literally at this. precise moment I'm seeing that another. sitting Democratic Congressman Raul Gala. from Arizona has also come out and. publicly called for Biden to step aside.

as nominee this has to be President. Biden's nightmare to. democratic Congress members saying get. out of the race I mean this is exactly. the kind of drum beat that Joe Biden has. been seeking to avoid where do you think. and based on your reporting and the. reporting of our colleague Shane has. this left Biden in his thinking on the. eve of July 4th the president president. and his team have been doing two things.

at once on Wednesday President Biden and. his vice president KL Harris both joined. an all staff conference call of his. campaign team and he reiterated that. he's going to be in this race until the. very. end but my colleague Katie Rogers has. reported on some private conversations. that President Biden has had with key. allies in which he has told them that he. understands the coming days are.

absolutely critical to salvaging his. candidacy now I should say that the. White House has denied that. reporting but Democrats pretty much. across the Spectrum at this point are. saying that Joe Biden needs to reassure. the American people about his ability to. serve and that's important Shane because. that reporting from ktie Rogers suggests. a self-awareness on the part of Biden. that he might not make it that there are. conditions under which he and wouldn't. make it and that of course makes me.

wonder what does Biden think might make. or break this moment for him I think. it's worth pausing for a second and. thinking about what it took to get those. first members of Congress to call for. him to step aside and for Nancy Pelosi. in particular to express her. frustrations out loud which is silence. there's really been Silence from Joe. Biden since this debate night he went. the next day and had a rally that his.

campaign team was really pleased with in. North Carolina where he said I'm not a. young man anymore and I don't speak as. smoothly as I used to and I don't walk. as well as I used to and they took those. remarks and they packaged it into a. television ad and they're putting that. on the airwaves but what Joe Biden. hasn't done is speak unscripted since. that debate night he used a teleprompter. at that rally in North Carolina and he. did a series of fundraisers and even in. behind closed doors in the Hamptons he.

used a teleprompter with his donors. which raised some concerns about why. isn't he speaking unscripted even with. us right why isn't he deliberately. trying to demonstrate his ability to be. extemporaneous to fight this growing. perception that if left to his own. devices he will have problems. communicating yeah the the question that. it raises is why would you not put him. out there more MH and so this private. conversation that he had and some of his.

other actions tell you that the Biden. team and the president himself know that. he needs to go out and fix this problem. and to address that he's meeting with a. series of Governors key Democratic. Governors and allies from across the. country some of whom are flying into. Washington DC to hold this meeting he's. sitting down for an interview with ABC's. George Stephanopoulos and then he's. hitting the campaign Trail over the. weekend in Wisconsin and. Pennsylvania and the president clearly. at this point knows that each of these.

encounters are a high-stake moment where. people are going to judge his Readiness. and capacity for the. job I just want to end this conversation. by reflecting and what I think it's safe. to say is the pretty extraordinary. nature of this. moment we are four months out from the. election and it very much seems day by. day hour by hour poll by poll as if. president President Biden's nomination.

could be teetering on the edge it it may. never get to that point he may. absolutely you know as he says Remain. the nominee until the end but that's. where we are right now is that people. are asking that question they're asking. it openly they're asking it within the. Democratic party and it feels very fraud. and. momentous Joe Biden made a bet that the. earliest debate in presidential history. was going to help him consolidate the.

Democratic party and unite everyone to. take on Trump this. fall and so far it's done just the. [Music]. opposite he's facing more questions than. he has allowed from Democrats from. almost two years about his capacity to. lead the party but the issues at hand. Joe Biden's age are not a new one when.

he ran for president in 2020 he talked. about being a bridge to the Next. Generation and when he announced that he. was going to run. again a lot of democratic voters were. surprised the Democratic party moved. pretty quickly to squash any chance that. there would be any real opposition to. Joe Biden in 2024 they reordered the. nominating calendar they put his. strongest State first and they made sure. that no serious democ rat challenged him.

for the nomination but he's been in. something really though of a staring. contest with his party's voters for the. last few years who have had doubts about. his age and him remaining their standard. Bearer and for the first time in that. staring contest a few prominent members. of his own party are saying it may be. time for President Biden to Blink and. step aside. [Music].

Shane thank you very much we appreciate. it thanks for having me. [Music]. on for more on the Fallout from the. debate check out this week's episode of. the runup where aad is hearing from. voters around the country and asking. them how they're now feeling about their. options you can find the runup wherever. you.

listen we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you need to know. today hurricane Barrel after devastating. two small Islands in Granada struck Jama. and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday as a. powerful category 4 storm according to. local officials the damage on two of.

Granada's Islands Kaku and petite. Martinique was. catastrophic about 98% of the buildings. on the island have been damaged or. destroyed including kaku's main hospital. airport and. marinas during a news conference. Granada's prime minister said quote we. have to rebuild from the ground up.

today's episode was produced by Rob. zipco Carlos prto and Nina Feldman it. was edited by Devin Taylor contains. original music by Maran Lozano Dan. Powell and Diane Wong and was engineered. by Chris Wood our theme music is by Jim. grunberg and Ben Lance of wonderly.

that's it for the daily I'm Michael. bbar see you tomorrow. [Music].