An Escalating War in the Middle East

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily now to the Middle East where fears. of a wider War are growing after over. the past few days simmering tensions. between Israel and Hezbollah the. Lebanese militia on Israel's northern. border have reached a Tipping Point a. loud explosion has been heard in the. southern suburbs of Beirut densely.

populated Southern Dua neighborhood. showered in debris following a Precision. strike by Israeli fighter. jets Israeli military says it has. carried out a strike targeting the. Hezbollah Commander allegedly behind. Saturday's deadly attack in the Golan. Heights raising fresh fears of a wider. war in the Middle East with the state. department insisting an allout war is. not inevitable but following tonight's. attack has today my colleague Ben hubard. on why these attacks are different and.

why getting them to stop could be so. [Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. tough it's Wednesday July. [Music]. 31st so Ben the daily has been following.

the war in Gaza and the risk that it. could spread to the broader region and. over the past few days there have been. this series of attacks on Israel's. northern border the border with Lebanon. and they really felt like a ratcheting. up and potentially even a turning point. so we're talking to you on Tuesday. afternoon in New York and we want to dig. into what happened tell us what we know. so far well it's after midnight here in. the Middle East and we're still. reporting out exactly what happened what.

we know is that Israel carried out an. air strike on a building in a Southern. suburb of Beirut that targeted a senior. military official in Hezbollah part of. the city where Hezbollah basically runs. the show they largely destroyed a. building and Israel has claimed that. they succeeded in assassinating a senior. military leader in Hezbollah MH and this. all comes in the context of this ongoing. exchange of attacks across the Lebanese. Israeli border that have been going.

since near the start of the Gaza. War while the focus has been mostly on. Gaza there's been the secondary battle. taking place across Israel's northern. border this is between Israel one of the. most sophisticated militaries in the. Middle East and on the Lebanese side. Hezbollah which is an iranian-backed. militia that is probably one of the most. powerful non-state militias in the. world this is a hostile border it's been. hostile for decades but since the war in. Gaza started in October Hezbollah began.

striking targets inside of Israel across. the border it is a regional Ally of. Hamas and said that it wanted to. basically help Hamas out by trying to. bog down Israeli forces in the north so. that they couldn't focus all of their. energy on the. south and this has continued to escalate. there have been strikes on both sides. there have been more than 150,000 people. displaced from communities on both sides. of the Border there have been hundreds. of people. killed but all along there's been this. idea that both sides didn't want this to.

escalate into another gigantic. War but of course the risk when you have. you know two military Powers striking. each other on a daily or sometimes. hourly basis is that somebody's going to. make a mistake right somebody's going to. strike something that they shouldn't. strike or carry out a strike that kills. too many civilians and you know that. that's going to kind of put the other. side on the hook for retaliation and. this is basically what everyone has been. worried about for the last 9 months and.

so all of a sudden we seem to have. reached that point where we're very much. kind of on the precipice of seeing. whether you know this is really about to. launch into a new level of configration. Ben where did this begin how did this. new precipice you're talking about. start so what we saw on Tuesday was an. Israeli. retaliation to a strike on Saturday that. killed 12 teenagers and children in an.

Israeli controlled. town so tell us what happened on. Saturday so just after 600 p.m. in a. town called majad Shams which is in the. Golan Heights this is uh territory that. Israel occupied in the 1967 war many of. the residents there are from the Arab. Drew minority many of them are not even. Israeli. citizens they were you know kids. teenagers out playing soccer. siren goes off and then within a few.

seconds some sort of a rocket comes down. hits the edge of the soccer pitch and it. all happened incredibly quickly and this. was the deadliest attack inside of. Israel since October 7th in terms of. Civilian deaths 12 people killed in one. day one attack and this has sent this. sort of shock wave through Israel that. how can we allow this to happen and tell. me about the response to this Ben who. claimed. responsibility well earlier hezb had.

said that it was striking targets along. the border there are military bases in. the area and that you know hezb. considers fair game and in terms of sort. of the rules of this battle as it's. taking place but as soon as it became. apparent that this had killed civilians. and especially civilian children hella. very quickly issued an on the reccord. denial saying we had absolutely nothing. to do with this which is something that. they don't usually do Israel said it was. clear that this strike had come from. Lebanon and they acced hezb of launching.

it and this was largely they said due to. the kind of rocket that had been used. and that Hezbollah is the only force in. Lebanon that has this kind of Rocket the. US government has said that they support. the Israeli findings so Hezbollah is. denying it but the US and Israel say. it's pretty conclusive it was their. rocket what. happens well inside of Israel there's. very quickly a sense that there needs to. be some kind of a response and the fact. that it is civilians and that it's. children there's just this sense that is. needs to do something that it needs to.

hit back and so for the last few days. everyone in the region has really been. on tender hooks waiting to see what is. this response going to be how big is it. going to be and then of course after. that what will hz's response be to that. and that brings us to the strike in. Beirut on. Tuesday I'm curious about the. calculations here for each side you know. as we see things escalating why don't. you start with Hezbollah what's the. thinking there.

well it certainly would not be. unprecedented for these two powers to go. to war they have a long history together. that goes back to the 80s when Israel. had occupied South Lebanon and hez Bella. formed underground to try to push them. out and they attacked Israeli forces and. effectively succeeded in getting them. out by 2000 since then Hezbollah has. grown into something much much more. powerful than just an underground. military force now they are a political. party that has ministers in the Lebanese. government they have members of.

parliament they work very closely with. Iran they're sort of a Lynch pin of what. is known as the axis of resistance which. is this group of Iranian backed militias. around the region that consider it their. job to push back against Israel and to. push back against the west and the last. time that this really blew up was in. 2006 in 2006 hasb launched a crossb raid. on some Israeli troops ended up. capturing two of them and killing some. others Israel responded with a. tremendous attack on Lebanon Israel. launched ground invasion they bombed.

infrastructure across Lebanon including. Bridges and the international airport. and it was a very brutal 34-day war that. basically ended with a. standstill so I was actually covering. this war for the times in 2006 and the. thing that I really remember was you. know the Israelis going in kind of. expecting it to be easier than it was. but it wasn't and leaving after a month. of very intense fighting and on the. Lebanese side there were these extr ex. casualties and you know most of southern.

Lebanon had been flattened so very very. difficult I think for both sides in this. conflict yes it was an incredibly. destructive War there had been more than. a thousand people killed in Lebanon many. of them Hezbollah Fighters but also many. many civilians more than 150 people. killed in Israel and it was so. destructive that Hassan nah the leader. of Hezbollah came out after the war and. effectively apologized told the Lebanese. that if I had known how destructive this. was going to be we wouldn't have started.

it which as far as I'm aware is probably. the only time that he's ever come out. and apologize for anything certainly for. anything that important wow uh and I. think the Israelis too realized that you. know this was not a walk in the park. they could not just go into Lebanon very. easily and sort of destroy this threat. on their northern border you know this. was a very formidable foe that they were. dealing with okay so both sides learned. a very painful lesson in 2006 which is. it can be quite difficult to take on the.

other in an allout War what has happened. since. then well I think from that lesson they. realized that they also needed to. prepare for the next round so Hezbollah. regrouped with help from Iran and other. supporters it was able to build its. military force get more sophisticated. weapons more precise Rockets during the. Civil War in Syria next door to Lebanon. which started in 2011 Hezbollah ended up. playing a very powerful role on the.

crown supporting president Bashar Al. Assad went in and sort of played a. decisive role in a number of battles. there which killed a number of hezb. people but also gave kind of a whole new. generation of younger fighters on the. ground experience with Guerilla. Warfare and so going into October 7th. Hezbollah was a much much stronger Force. than it had ever been in its history it. had better weapons it had more Fighters. it was much more sophisticated it had. new kinds of Technology including drones. and then we see these capabilities when.

Hezbollah starts launching these attacks. on Northern Israel many of them are very. precise and they target Israeli. surveillance posts they target Vehicles. they do kill some civilians but we've. seen Hezbollah launching drones that go. deep into Israel and then they broadcast. the footage of what they saw and Israel. has responded to all this by striking. Hezbollah harder and harder inside of. Lebanon so we've seen repeated strikes. that have assassinated a number of. prominent Hezbollah leaders and this is. destructive for people you know for.

civilians living on both sides of the. Border there are somewhere around 60,000. Israelis who have fled Northern Israel. to go elsewhere in the country in. Lebanon the number is even higher it's. it's around somewhere close to 100,000. people who have left the South and there. have been many people killed on the. Lebanese side there's more than 460. killed probably around a 100 of them. civilians and in Israel you have more. than 20 military people who have been. killed so the stakes really seem to be. rising. here what does Hezbollah this now very.

well-armed very disciplined group that's. like kind of partway between a militia. and a country at this point what does it. say it wants well their rallying cry. like that of their allies and Hamas and. other groups around the region is to. destroy Israel but in terms of their. more immediate objectives at this point. they've gotten into this war for very. specific reasons that they made clear. after they started in October and. hassa made it very clear early in the.

war what exactly hasb set out to do he. said we are not looking to get into a. gigantic war with Israel but we want to. help what he considers his brothers in. Hamas and Gaza and they were going to do. this by striking the Israeli military on. the northern border and trying to. basically bog down part of Israel's. forces and they basically want to keep. the pressure on Israel and they have. made it very clear all along that the. only thing that will stop them from. striking these Targets in Northern. Israel is going to be the end of the war.

in. Gaza but that's something that given the. politics and pressure inside of Israel. is proven quite difficult for a number. of. [Music]. reasons we'll be right back. [Music].

so Ben you've laid out hezbollah's. strategy of putting pressure on Israel. you know trying to get them to end the. war in Gaza but what about Israel what. are its. considerations prime minister Benjamin. Netanyahu is in a pretty difficult spot. when it comes to the war in Gaza he. promised at the start of this war that. the two goals were to bring the hostages.

home and to destroy Hamas and so far. Israel has really accomplished neither. of these things and it's been nine. months of incredibly incredibly. destructive Warfare because they want to. make more progress in getting rid of. Hamas and Gaza and they want to have. some kind of something that looks like a. victory and that ideally would involve. bringing home the remaining. hostages on the other side you have. people who argue that you know the war. has gone on long enough and now it's. time for some kind of a ceasefire so. there been repeated rounds of talks for.

some kind of a ceasefire with Hamas that. would involve the release of the. remaining hostages in exchange for the. release of Palestinian prisoners from. Israeli. jails so far Hamas hasn't agreed to any. of the proposals that have been made and. so this is where we are in this position. where we're just kind of stuck between. these competing pressures so the leaders. of Hezbollah say only a ceasefire in. Gaza will get them to stop firing but of. course a ceasefire in Gaza is as you. point out quite stuck so it seems like.

netanyahu's path to how he can respond. here is actually pretty narrow well he's. also in a pickle when it comes to what. to do about Lebanon he's once again. dealing with competing pressures from. inside of his own government inside of. his own country he on one hand has these. same right-wing ministers who are saying. that the only solution to Hezbollah is. to basically reoccupy Southern Lebanon. and as recently as this Monday blaza.

smotrich the Finance Minister said in a. speech that the only solution was to. destroy Hezbollah reoccupy Southern. Lebanon and basically create a kind of. buffer zone on Lebanese territory inside. of Lebanon and you've had other calls. similar to this from other right-wing. ministers and and these are not Fringe. figures these are people who are. essential to Benjamin Netanyahu in. holding together his Coalition they. effectively have Netanyahu at their beck. and call because if they leave the.

government it would collapse so what. they say has a lot of weight in Israel. right now is very difficult for him to. ignore what they're advocating for and. at the same time you have many people. from the military establishment who are. saying at some point we will need to. deal with Hezbollah but now is not the. time the forces are exhausted because of. how long they've been fighting in Gaza. and that Israel is just not prepared to. launch another gigantic war on its. border so now Ben it looks like we have. the beginning of an answer right this.

attack in Beirut I guess I'm wondering. what you been make of this attack you. know on the escalation scale is it. ratcheting things up I think it's very. hard this early on to gauge sort of. where this falls on the scale to be. honest this is not of course what SMR. and sort of the far right in Israel. would have want to this is not a. full-scale Invasion we're not talking. about Mass strikes across large parts of. Lebanon. but if this person is as senior as the.

Israelis say he was being sort of a. right-hand man to Hass nah somebody who. was in charge of sort of the you know. the Strategic arm of hezbollah's whole. military. operation taking him out and taking them. out inside of Beirut is like a pretty. serious. assassination and so I I just I think. it's it's pretty hard to predict whether. this is something that hezb feels like. they can you know maybe respond in some. sort of way that makes it look like.

they're not just accepting it but. doesn't sort of take this up another. notch or whether they consider this you. know the Israelis now Crossing one of. their red lines so Ben this is really. quite a dramatic moment and it's making. me wonder where things go from here I. mean we have this massive number of. people displaced this ratcheting up is. this it are we now tipping into an. allout War we're very much standing on a. precipice we're in a very different. place than we were just a few days ago.

then we were primarily watching this. back and forth Tit for Tat that seemed. to be organized in some kind of confines. that there was kind of a general. understanding of what kinds of attacks. you could do and how to keep this thing. contained and so the question right now. is is there any way for the sides to. step back from this or is it going to. get worse I mean I was in Lebanon the. week before last and and did a number of. interviews with families who've been. displaced from the south. living in quite poor conditions and I.

mean then their main concern was whether. they would be able to go back whether. their homes were destroyed and now the. question is very much is the whole. situation going to get worse and are. more people going to be displaced my. colleague Isabelle kersner in Jerusalem. did similar interviews on the Israeli. side and found very similar things. Israelis who have been outside of their. homes since early on in the war and you. know if this battle along the border. escalates to another level that it's. going to make it even harder for these. people to return.

home and so we're in a critical new. stage here and what the two sides decide. to do in the next few days is going to. really determine where this. [Music]. goes Ben thank you thank you.

[Music]. as of Tuesday night the death toll from. the strike in Beirut had reached at. least three civilians including two. children and more than 70 people had. been injured and in a dramatic. development early Wednesday morning. Hamas announced that its political. leader Ismael hania had been. assassinated in Tron hania a key figure. in hamas's leadership. was in Iran to attend the inauguration.

ceremony of the country's new president. The Killing was a major blow to Hamas. and raised the Spectre of a wider war. with Iran which is likely to see the. killing on its soil as an act of. aggression by. [Music]. Israel we'll be right back.

[Music]. here's what else you should know today. in Venezuela at least 16 people have. died and about 750 have been arrested as. a result of protests following the. highly contentious presidential election. over the weekend the nation's autocratic. leader president Nicholas Maduro who. claimed victory. has refused to release the full results.

and many countries have said the vote. was marred by widespread. irregularities both sides of the. country's political divide called on. followers to take to the streets and on. Tuesday the US Women's EX Team won its. first gold at the Olympic Games in Paris. led by Simone biles who is now the most. decorated gymnast in history and sunisa. Lee the defending all-around Champion. biles called the Paris games her. Redemption tour after she withdrew from.

the games in Tokyo 3 years ago because. of a mental block Italy took home the. silver and Brazil won the bronze for the. all-around team. event today's episode was produced by. relle Banja and Sydney Harper with help. from Shannon Lynn and will Reed it was. edited by Lexi Dio and Patricia willins. contains original music by Dan Powell. and Sophia lenman and was engineered by.

Chris Wood our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben lansberg of wonderly. special thanks to Isabelle kersner ferna. fi Yan Ward and Hua. [Music]. s that's it for the daily I'm Sabrina. Tavern see you tomorrow. [Music].