An Arms Race Quietly Unfolds in Space

from New York Times I'm Michael babbaro. this is the. [Music]. daily today us officials now acknowledge. a growing fear that Russia may be trying. to put a nuclear weapon into Earth's. orbit but as my colleague Eric Lipton. explains their real worry is that. America could lose the battle for.

military Supremacy in. space it's Wednesday February. [Music]. 28th Eric this story began in a pretty. unusual way I actually watched it unfold. on social media in real time and it. started with a very cryptic message from. a member of Congress so just tell us. about that sure well representative Mike.

Turner who's chairman of the house. intelligence committee put out a message. saying today the house permanent select. committee on intelligence has made. available to all members of Congress. information that he had information. concerning a serious national security. threat and it was an unusual kind of a. of a statement from the chairman of the. house intelligence committee I'm. requesting that President Biden. declassify all information relating to. this threat so that Congress the. administration and our so he didn't.

really tell us what this was about but. he he just told us to be very scared yes. and it immediately set off a scramble of. National Security reporters to try to. figure out what that message meant MH. and pretty quickly Congressman Turner is. referring to a foreign military. capability and that foreign military is. the Russian military reporters heard. that this had to do with Russia and with. a new type of military. threat and what exactly was this new.

kind of military threat the intelligence. that our New York Times colleagues have. collected is that Russia is preparing to. put a weapon in space that would blow up. a nuclear device and when it did that it. would be used to Target United States. surveillance. [Music]. satellites okay so here we need to slow. down and explain what that means why. it's so alarming.

why nukes would ever be in space so just. kind of disentangle all of that I think. that few Americans realize just how. vital space is to the military defense. of the United States for decades the. United States has been building. effectively School bus-sized satellites. that cost a massive amounts of money. through these Exquisite systems that. just sit there in space and provide. incredible information and we rely upon.

all of the assets that we have for you. know navigation for communication for. missile defense for missile targeting. and it's something that is one of the. great powers of the United States is to. have all of this equipment floating. around above us but the real flaw in the. United States military space system is. that there aren't very many of them and. you don't have to take out too many of. them to severely disable the United.

States capacities got it so back to this. Congressman Turner and his message why. would the Russians need a nuclear. element to their efforts to challenge. America's satellite programs in space. Russia sees potentially a nuclear weapon. as a way to take out large numbers of. satellites in an instant wow it would. fry them it would destroy them it would. create all kinds of debris in space and. I think what's really going on on here.

is the Russians in the early stages of. their invasion of Ukraine were really. frustrated that they were not able to. really block the ability of the. Ukrainian military to continue to. communicate and that's because the. Ukrainian military was relying on SpaceX. and Elon Musk and his network of. starlink satellites to continue to. operate and it was actually in late 2022. when the Russians said you know what. those American satellites are getting in.

our way and we may choose to Target. those satellites in the future and I. think that's what might be going on. right now got it so Russia has decided. that a way for it to achieve any kind of. military advantage over the US and have. success in things like its invasion of. Ukraine is to be able to threaten the. United States satellite infrastructure. in space in such a way that might make. it hard for the US.

to effectively fight back against Russia. that's right I mean on the ground. Russia's been using what they call GPS. jamers to disrupt the signals from. satellites that are coming down in. Ukraine on the ground as they're. fighting the war but everything from the. location of the soldier on the ground to. when there's a missile that's launched. that's targeted in the United States to. how a ship communicates with another. ship everything goes through space and I. think that's one of the weakest points. that the United States has and it's the.

ability to mess up or disable their. space-based Communications targeting. surveillance H you're saying that when a. rival like Russia thinks about how it. could actually and efficiently take out. America's eyes and ears of our entire. military it turns out there's really. only one answer and that's by doing it. in space right it doesn't matter how big. and powerful the weapon systems are if. they can't Target and they can't. communicate they're basically useless.

okay so if you believe that Russia could. put a nuclear weapon in space that could. hurt our ability to have eyes and ears. on what they're doing that would be very. scary but how confident are we that. Vladimir Putin can in fact put a nuclear. weapon in space that's capable of doing. that given that in fact there's already. been nuclear tests in space in the. 1960s the idea of them doing this is not. out of the realm of technical. possibility.

it would be a violation of an. international treaty but you know Russia. hasn't shown much concern about. violating International treaties so I. don't think technically it would be that. much of a challenge it would destabilize. the world because suddenly you'd have. nuclear weapons in space and it would. cross a line that so far no one has. crossed but the notion can it be done I. think it could be done and I guess the. question is not just can it be done but. how confident is the US that Russia. intends to do it and how quickly that's.

really unclear and I think that there's. a lot of speculation even about exactly. what this weapon might be it could be a. nuclear-powered anti-satellite device. that blows out satellites but just be. nuclear powered it could be a nuclear. weapon in space that explodes and blows. out anything anywhere nearby and we. don't know when this potential Russian. weapon is going to go up into orbit or. whether or not in fact it ever really. will.

but what this does show a bit is that. it's a bit of a Hail Mary by Russia a. way to try to exert its influence in. space at a moment when Russia is. actually a declining power relative to. the other nations in the. world just explain that how can Russia. be a declining power right now in space. Russia is not launching nearly as. frequently as it had been.

and its whole infrastructure around. building new satellites is in Decline. particularly compared to China which is. launching at a crazy Pace right now and. putting up all kinds of new commercial. communication systems but also devices. that could become offensive weapons. against the United. States so at the end of the day when I. talk to people at the Pentagon despite. the noise that Russia's making about. potentially putting a nuclear weapon in. space the biggest threat to United.

States in space is actually. [Music]. China we'll be right. [Music]. back so Eric we started off talking. about the threat that it seemed Russia. posed to the United States because of. its willingness to potentially put a. nuclear weapon in space now you're. saying that for the US military the real.

threat in space is China so just explain. that China as of at least the last. decade as part of a overall significant. surge in its military capacity space has. been an incredibly intense focus it has. been launching at a really rapid Pace. far ahead of Russia and it's not only. putting communication satellites up. there but it's putting systems that. could potentially grab on to move and.

Disable American Military satellites. well how does that work I mean how how. does something that they launch into. space grab onto an American satellite. well in January. 2022 China put a satellite into space. that had an arm that reached out and. grabbed another satellite that was there. in geoc syncronous orbit and it dragged. it to a different. location.

so basically they found a way to put a. tow truck up in space and showed that if. they wanted to they could move any. satellite that's right they showed that. they had the ability to not only send. satellites up there but to send trucks. that had the capacity to grab onto maybe. an enemy's you know surveillance system. and basically put it into a dead. zone another thing that China did was in. 2007 this is quite a while ago they. launched the missile up to about 530.

miles Which is far into space and they. destroyed another satellite that was in. orbit and it created an incredible cloud. of space debris the largest amount of. space debris ever tracked and it was. quite a worrisome thing for the United. States to see that China has the. capacity to launch missiles from the. ground that would destroy satellites and. blow them up in low earth. orbit got it so both examples that you. just described are much more targeted.

than what Russia is contemplating you. know moving one satellite or using a. missile to take one out but the upshot. is that China can disrupt our eyes and. ears in space in a probably better more. efficient way than Russia and you're. saying given how much stuff they' put up. in space they're more likely to already. be able to do it than Russia which is. still trying to get to that point right. I mean the big difference between Russia. and China right now is that space threat. is that China is moving rapidly on both.

offensive and defensive systems China is. talking about building a state network. of 13,000 satellites that's I mean on a. scale that's just completely outside of. what Russia is attempting to do China is. investing a lot more money and it's. moving much faster right now to put new. systems in space and those systems are. both going to threaten United States. satellites and also have a kind of a. surveillance that would almost rival the.

United States so I want to understand. where the US sits in all of this because. when it comes to space it feels like the. thing that would make the US military so. anxious about a rival's advancements in. space is if we couldn't match them or we. couldn't properly respond to them so. what is the US Readiness right now to. basically match or fight back against. whatever Russia and China are doing in. space everyone I talked to from the.

Pentagon and also former Pentagon. officials uh all agree that the United. States maintains clear dominance in. space it has more satellites for. surveillance and missile targeting and. missile defense than any other Nation. both the United States and China have. moved in a really rapid way into a new. domain and that is low earth. orbit that's about no greater than 1200. miles off the surface of the Earth and.

it's the area where SpaceX has put more. than 5,000 satellites for its starlink. system that's the Focus right now is the. flood that zone with lots of relatively. cheap quickly manufactured easy to. replace satellite systems and the United. States wants to put you know at least a. thousand satellites into low earth orbit. for its military purposes in the next. several. years among the many concerns that the. American Military has is that China is. moving so rapidly right now to build out.

its own system that unless the United. States really accelerates what it's. doing that soon China could be close to. matching what the US has in space and. that China now has enough surveillance. capacity in space to Target American. Military capacity in any type of a. conflict I mean imagine you know the. scenario where China decides to invade. Taiwan and the United States decides. that it's going to help defend Taiwan if.

all of our military assets are. immediately visible to China they could. be targeted even before they got to the. Taiwan Straits or even before they got. within range to have a military. engagement and. simultaneously China's offensive space. weapons were disabling American. satellites so that the United States. could no longer communicate that's the. fear that the military has right now is. both of those things could suddenly. happen if the United States is not. building up its own space capacity and.

its space weapons to disable Chinese. [Music]. satellites got it so the worry and it's. very specific is that if China can. achieve the same level of military. prowess in space as the us then the US. loses any power it has to deter China. from doing something like invade Taiwan.

because we know and they know that we. know that they can basically shut down. our systems before and during that. Invasion and make it impossible for us. to stop them it would severely degrade. military capacity if they could wipe out. a good share of our satellites and. they're racing to try to avoid that so. Eric what does it look like for the US. to race to avoid China meeting America's. capabilities where they currently are I. mean how does the US military do that.

obviously it would need to either slow. China down or the US itself would need. to speed up and race ahead of China. there's two primary things that are. happening right now one is to build out. us offensive systems to disable Chinese. or Russian satellites so that includes. jamming systems they just signed a new. contract to build new devices that could. Jam Chinese are Russian satellites and. and disrupt their signals laser systems.

that could destroy satellites from the. ground or from space and also other. systems that they just like the Chinese. have built a tug in Space the United. States potentially is going to build its. own systems that could grab and disable. other satellites in space the second. piece of this plank is to build out a. massive investment in space capacity by. the United States to build a whole new. architecture in low Earth orbit with. hundreds if not more than a thousand.

satellites that would be so many so. redundant that you couldn't effectively. disable the United States military. capacity because even if you were to. shoot out a certain number of them there. would be yet more of them sort of like. starlink right now the SpaceX starlink. if it loses a certain number of its. 5,800 satellites they just switch and. they rebuild the network among the. remaining satellites basically everyone. knows that the next time there's a major. war with a major power that there's.

going to be offensive activity in space. and both sides are preparing for that. wow I mean what you're clearly. describing is a new space race a space. race that's about which of these three. Global superpowers can take out the. others satellites and use their. satellites offensively and defensively. to achieve military Supremacy yeah. that's right I think that there's a new. space race that's underway right now and. it is more int. than at any time since really the 1960s.

when the United States and Russia were. testing weapons in space for the first. time and it is very intense and the. increase in spending on Space right now. radically exceeds anything that the Navy. or that you know the traditional Air. Force or the Army is doing more dollars. are pouring into space defense right now. as a percentage increase it's more than. any other part of the. military Eric this makes me wonder how. much the US in its efforts to do those. two things you just described out in.

space is ultimately ryant on contractors. the private sector and in particular. Elon Musk right this guy who has put so. many satellites up in the sky but who's. Mercurial and unique to put it. diplomatically so is the US plan for. staying ahead of both Russia and China. to ultimately put more and more power in. the hands of Elon Musk right now there's. no question that SpaceX and Elon Musk.

plays an extraordinarily dominant role. in the ability to launch to orbit and. the military is excessively reliant on. SpaceX so at this moment it's an. uncomfortable kind of Domination by. SpaceX of the 9,400 objects in orbit. right now. 5,235 of them are SpaceX starlink. satellites so almost all of the. satellites in orbit that from any nation. in the world are Elon Musk but the.

Department of Defense realizes that it. can't be so Reliant upon one company for. launch and so the Pentagon is also. signing contracts with small launch. companies to quickly be able to put. military satellites into space with just. a few days notice wow and so there. there's a lot of money that's being. spent to build out this capacity right. so what you're really saying is that. this new space race is going to come. with and Foster a new space military.

industrial complex that's going to be. the recipient of many billions maybe. trillions of dollars in taxpayer money. that's right I mean the the United. States is already in the middle of an. incredible explosion in the commercial. space industry because the number of. commercial launches is growing at a. really crazy rate and in the entire. world right now there are approximately. 10,000 objects in orbit and within the. next 10 years the expectation there's. going to be something like.

25,000 satellites in orbit so there's a. there's a huge boom right now in the. space industry. globally so Eric when I step back it. feels like the inevitable outcome of. this new space race this weapons space. race is a very potentially expensive. version of what we already have which is. that famous concept of mutually assured. destruction right it's this idea that. all three of these countries have. nuclear weapons and it keeps us all in.

check Russia China the us we don't. attack each other directly because we. all fear that the other country attacked. would fire back in obliterating ways. that would never make it worth it and so. isn't that kind of where we're headed. with this battle over space all three. countries are going to be spending a. tremendous amount of money eventually to. reach some kind of loose parody that. prevents us all from doing something. really horrible to the other.

country I mean I sort of reject your. premise and I think that in fact the. thing that the United States is. concerned about is it has had such a. massive advantage in space for so long. and it's been so Central to our global. Military Supremacy and suddenly if you. have another Nation that's kind of. walking in and and becoming your rival. in that environment I mean that's really. worrisome to the American Military and. their deter to prevent China from.

matching the United States military. capacity in space H you're saying this. is not about the three countries ever. achieving parody it's about the US. ensuring that parody is never achieved. because if it's achieved then everything. changes right I think that basically the. Pentagon wants to ensure that it can. maintain dominance in space and not just. parity because space space dominance is. so vital to the way that the United.

States military has operated for years. [Music]. now well Eric thank you very much we. appreciate it thanks for having. [Music]. me we'll be right.

[Music]. back here's what else you need to. another day on Tuesday President Biden. summoned House and Senate leaders to the. White House in an attempt to avoid the. latest potential government. shutdown that shutdown which could begin. at midnight on Saturday would be the. result of strident demands from House.

Republicans who have attached right-wing. policies to basic spending bills that. have made them impossible to pass in the. Senate we believe that we can get to. agreement on these issues and prevent a. government shutdown and that's our first. uh responsibility as he left the White. House Republican house Speaker Mike. Johnson expressed optimism that a. shutdown would be averted and we have. been working in good faith Around the. Clock every single day for months and in. weeks and over the last several days.

quite literally around the clock to get. that job done we're. [Music]. very and in a rebuke to President Biden. more than a 100,000 Democratic voters in. Michigan cast protest ballots that. declared themselves uncommitted to. express disapproval of the president's. handling of the war in Gaza that number. far exceeded the goal of 10 ,000. uncommitted ballots that activists had.

set for themselves and could spell. trouble for Biden in the general. election Michigan is a key swing state. where Biden defeated Donald Trump in. 2020 today's episode was produced by. Michael Simon Johnson and Carlos PRI. with help from will Reed and muj Zi it. was edited by Lexi di contains original. music by Mar and Lozano Dan Powell and.

Pat mccusker and was engineered by Alysa. Moxley our theme music is by Jim. brunberg and Ben Lanser of. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael baboro see you. [Music]. tomorrow.