Alliance vs. Isolation: Harris and Trump’s Competing Views on Foreign Policy

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily as the wars in Ukraine in the. Middle East deepen the US under. President Joe Biden has taken a leading. role in both but now the presidential. campaign is raising a new and. consequential question whose foreign. policy will the World get.

[Music]. next today my colleague Peter Baker. explains it's Monday September. [Music]. 30th so Peter we're just weeks away from. election day and the United States is. deeply involved in protracted Wars in. Ukraine and the Middle East these will.

be issues for whoever is the next. president so we wanted to talk to you. about how the two candidates might. approach these conflicts and foreign. policy more broadly just this weekend we. saw the killing of Hassan nasala the. leader of the Lebanese militia group. Hezbollah by Israel and I really want. you first to start with just what the. stakes are here yeah I don't think the. stakes could be higher for the Middle. East to erupt into a wider War which is. the fear here in Washington right now in.

the thick of a presidential campaign. just reminds us of how important America. still is in the world right that we are. not in fact behind an ocean where we. Cann care about what happens across the. globe but where it's going to go at this. point in the Middle East we don't know. the fear is that the killing of nasala. who was mourned by nobody in the United. States who has blood on his hands after. Decades of leading a a terrorist. organization but his killing could.

inflame the region in a way that. President Biden has been trying to avoid. for almost 12 months now and the idea of. a wider more expansive war in the Middle. East one that not only escalates with. Hezbollah itself but possibly brings in. its Patron Iran that is a huge Challenge. and therefore of course it's extremely. important to know who's going to take. over in just a few weeks and the. difference between these two candidates. in their Outlook in their Vision in.

their approach to the world could hardly. be bigger so let's go to the candidates. themselves tell me how you see Donald. Trump and KLA Harris in terms of how. they would steer America in the world. like high level well KLA Harris course. hasn't had a lot of experience in. foreign policy but she's learned a lot. at the side of President Biden as his. vice president so we're sort of guessing. a little bit about her vision and her. views I think our general assumption is. that she's pretty close to where where.

Biden is and I think it's safe to assume. that she is basically a pretty. conventional center-left Democratic. foreign policy thinker and me to the. extent that she brings her own. individual perspective it probably comes. from her time as a prosecutor and a. lawyer that she believes in the. international rules-based order so she. looks at foreign policy in the sense of. who is following the rules in effect in. terms of whether it be trade security or. economics and Peter tell me about Trump.

how would you describe him high level. well high level he is the opposite right. he is a disruptive Force when it comes. to International Affairs proudly so if. there's anything he believes it's this. idea that other countries are shating. the United States often our own friends. our friends in Europe our friends in. Asia that they are getting one over on. the United States when it comes to trade. and economics when it comes to security. arrangements and so on and so he's often. been much harder on America's allies.

than he has been on America's. adversaries right he's drawn to these. strong men in a way and it's a real. break with what came before when it. comes to the Republican party and really. just Washington consensus generally so. on the face of it Peter these are two. very different candidates let's talk. about how they would actually be on the. issues though maybe let's start with. this killing of Hassan nasala which. plunges us directly into the unknown. when it comes to Israel and Iran which.

is of course the big backer and power. behind. Hezbollah right so over the last few. days what we've seen is Israel. escalating the war in Lebanon in a major. way after a year of trading crossborder. fire and on Friday Israel struck a. densely packed neighborhood just south. of Beirut killing Hassan nasala the head. of Hezbollah and he of course has been. such a remarkably powerful and dangerous. force in the Middle East now for decades.

it was such a shock right Peter like. this guy was a fixture and now suddenly. he's gone it just felt like I didn't. even know what world we were living in. it's a paradigm changing moment right. and the same time Israel has continued. to strike Hezbollah targets around. Lebanon and it's causing you know deep. chaos within the country according to. the government there as many as a. million people could be displaced and so. far more than a thousand have been. killed since this ramped up offensive. began including civilians women and.

children and now all eyes are really on. Iran and whether they will in effect. enter the war in a much bigger way than. they already have they've been fighting. Israel really for years through these. proxy groups that kind of Shadow War but. now the fear is it could be an actual. allout Regional war and that might bring. in the United States too what has. Washington said about this so Biden and. Harris both released statements pretty. similar to each other saying that this. was a measure of justice for the vi. victims of Hezbollah at the same time.

that they also talked about the need for. diplomacy to deescalate the conflict. they're called on the parties the. combatants to agree to these ceasefire. proposals that are out there to end the. fighting at least temporarily now on the. Republican side the Speaker of the House. Mike Johnson and his leadership team put. out their own statement praising of. course Israel's killing of Nala but also. attacking the Biden Administration for. not doing enough in their View to. support.

Israel the one person we haven't heard. from ironically is Donald Trump he had a. whole long rally yesterday and said not. one word about Hezbollah and the killing. of nalah and gave no clue therefore into. his thinking about what this means and. what the United States should be doing. at this point and we know of course. about Trump that he does have an. antagonistic relationship with the. Iranians he pulled out of the Iran. nuclear agreement which was brokered. under President Obama and put sanctions.

back on Tran when we're looking at the. candidates here how do each see. Iran well definitely Trump sees Iran as. the main malign force not only in the. Middle East but one of the main enemies. around the world right he's willing to. say nice things about Vladimir Putin and. Kim Jong-un and North Korea not one good. word obviously for Iran I think Harris. obviously sees Iran as a malign Force as. well but she has been part of. administration that was willing to at.

least try to restart negotiations over. their nuclear program now that didn't go. anywhere that ended up fizzling and. right now we are at odds with Iran we. have sanctioned Iran we are not part of. an agreement with Iran and it doesn't. look like one is happening anytime soon. so where haris wants to take the policy. with Iran right now is a little unclear. she obviously will talk about being. tough on Iran but she is not trying to. raise the temperature and use the same. kind of language that former president.

Trump. does so Peter let's go to Israel which. is of course at the center of all of. this and and Israel's relationship with. the United States which is under a lot. of strain right now as it wages its war. against Hamas in Gaza almost a year. after Hamas attacked on October 7th this. conflict is top of mind I think for a. lot of Voters and I'm curious how the. candidates are talking about it maybe. start with. Trump well one way it comes up on the. campaign Trail Trump is the way he tries.

to persuade Jewish American voters to. support him he likes to boast of being. Israel's great friend during his first. term but so much so he's taken it to the. point of saying that if you're Jewish. and you vote against him you somehow are. betraying Israel or betraying Judaism. which by the way is a concept that's. very offensive to a lot of people but. that's where he is framing it right now. now it's fair to say there's probably. never been a president who's been more. willing to give Israeli leadership what. it wanted than Donald Trump right he.

moved the American Embassy from Tel Aviv. to Jerusalem which is something that the. previous presidents had all declined to. do he recognized Israeli sovereignty. over the Golan Heights which again no. president had done up until that point. he closed the Palestinian office in. Washington and cut off Aid and he wasn't. even on speaking terms with Mahmud abas. the president of the Palestinian. authorities so in Trump prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu was getting an awful. lot of what he wanted but when it comes. to war in Gaza it's self Trump has been.

relatively quiet he really hasn't given. any kind of extended analysis or. interview to explain how he sees the war. in Gaza in fact if anything when he has. talked about it he has said things that. Israel supporters are uncomfortable with. like Israel needs to get this over with. you got to get it done quickly because. they are getting decimated with this. publicity and there's too much killing. not that he is expressing concern for. those who are being killed because he. says it's hurting Israel's reputation in. the world Israel has to handle their. public relations their public relations.

are not good and so he needs to get it. over with I think another thing we could. say is he probably wouldn't be as. committed to humanitarian aid for the. Palestinians in Gaza as the Biden. Administration has been I've never heard. Trump express any interest in that and. he doesn't particularly like Wars I mean. I think that's one thing he has. expressed Pride about not starting any. wars while he was president and I don't. know that he feels very comfortable with. an extended war in the Middle East I. don't know what he would be willing to. do to stop it or how far he would be.

willing to go to pressure Netanyahu but. I don't think Netanyahu can count on. 100% unvarnished support like he had in. the first three years of Trump's. presidency yeah it's interesting how you. know Trump has this tough guy thing but. at the same time you know it's not. actually militaristic like he doesn't. believe in kind of using American. Military might like traditional. Republicans have and it's true he didn't. start a war which is one of the things I. always think about a trump. Administration and how different it was.

from say the administration of George W. bush which was kind of a more. traditional political institutionalist. guy but did start this big war that's. just not what Trump does yeah no it's. really true he's the opposite of Teddy. Roosevelt right Teddy Roosevelt was. speak softly and carry a big stick Trump. is speak loudly but carry a small stick. so he is actually somebody who has not. been eager to pull the trigger even. though he speaks very L.

andat bosly right exactly and Peter what. about Harris what do we know about how. she would distinguish herself from the. Biden administration's approach to. Israel K Harris is stuck close to. President Biden's policy but she sounds. different right at times well let's. understand how we got here when she. describes the situation there it's a. matter of emphasis her emphasis on the. suffering of the Palestinians sounds.

much more determined than when Biden. says that said then I say now Israel has. a right to defend itself we would she. will say that Israel has every right to. defend itself she will condemn the. October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas in. strong terms but because it is also true. far too many innocent Palestinians have. been killed children mothers when she. speaks about it you hear more empathy it. sounds like to people for the suffering. of the civilians at least in Gaza who.

are paying a price but we must have a. two-state solution where we can rebuild. Gaza where the Palestinians have. security self-determination and the. dignity they so rightly deserve and so. people assume because of that that she. will be tougher on Netanyahu than Biden. has been that she would have less. patience for Netanyahu and put more. pressure on him okay so let's turn to. Ukraine what would a Harris. Administration look like on that front.

well I think the Harris Administration. would continue a lot of the policy that. we've seen in the last two and a half. years since Putin's fullscale Invasion. she is invested in that I actually met. with zalinski a few days before Russia. invaded tried she's met with zinsky now. seven times including the meeting they. had together late last week and so. whatever she might have thought about it. coming in she's very much a part of the. Biden policy and is unlikely to make.

large scale shifts we brought 50. countries together to support Ukraine in. its righteous defense and she believes. that Russia cannot be allowed to Simply. win because if Russia wins it means that. the whole International rules-based. order is out the window because Putin's. agenda is not just about Ukraine it. means that a larger country can use. Force to rewrite the map without any. regard to the rules without any regard. to sovereignty and Independence and in.

fact she took a dig at Trump when she. met with zalinski calling what he is. suggesting a proposal for surrender so. very much continuing the Biden Doctrine. here on Ukraine American leadership. convening allies NATO and she does this. dig at Trump bring us to Trump how would. he be different I think he'd be vastly. different it's very hard to see any. foreign policy issue that would be more. 180 degree flip I will have that war. settled in one day 24.

hours how would you settle that war in. one day he has said that he would end. the war in 24 hours now how he would do. that he doesn't exactly say you can. break that deal 100% it would be easy. that deal would be easy not a single. person I know who knows anything about. Russia and Ukraine thinks is possible a. is not realistic and B it's just a. complete and utter reversal of where the. United States has traditionally stood. which is you don't reward aggression. that that you don't give in.

international bullies Trump has spent so. much time expressing admiration of Putin. that people still wonder why they're so. close what is it about Putin that makes. Trump so flattering he's not expressed. any condemnation of the Russian war I. want to ask you a very simple question. tonight do you want Ukraine to win this. war and when he's asked as he was at the. debate whether he wants Ukraine to win I. want the war to stop I want save lives.

that he always Ducks the question I. don't think in terms of winning and. losing I think in terms so even last. week while zinski was visiting for the. United Nations General Assembly he had a. last minute meeting with Trump in New. York and there again Trump refused to. condemn Russia for the war instead he. suggested that Putin wants the war to. end and refused to give any assurances. to zalinski for American support but I. guess the flip side of it is still kind. of confusing to me Peter like why do you. think it is that Trump is like that on.

Ukraine like why is he so opposed to. their war against Russia which you know. was obviously supported by old school. Republicans quite strongly it's America. first right that's his theory of. international relations unless he sees. it as an immediate American benefit he. doesn't want to have anything to do with. it a lot of people would argue of course. it is in America's interest to stop. countries from invading each other but. he doesn't see it that way in his. telling of it we have no business being.

involved unless we get something out of. it okay so Peter say Trump wins it's a. trump Administration what does his. approach to Ukraine actually look like. in practice and what would be the effect. of it well first off of course there. will probably not be any more American. Arms and American Aid at least Ukraine. shouldn't count on that and I think that. that by itself would be a dramatic. change on the ground there American Arms. have been critical in helping Ukraine.

beat back a much stronger much bigger. opponent Invader now in theory Europe. could fill the void but there's. weariness about the war in Europe as. well and it would be very challenging. for European leaders to come up with. even more money to fill the Gap if the. United States. withdraws and I assume if there's a. Harris Administration she's also not. necessarily going to have an easy time. getting a lot more money for Ukraine. what about what she would actually do.

would it be different than what Biden. has done I think it would probably be. roughly the same but she will be. presented with a different set of. circumstances than he was right Biden. was presented with the initial Invasion. she will be coming at it later in the. progress of the war when there'll be. more pressure to find a resolution to. get to some sort of a halt in The. Killing I think it's fair to assume she. wouldn't make concessions that Ukraine.

doesn't agree to she would take her cues. presumably from zalinsky or the. Ukrainian. [Music]. leadership okay so to recap Ukraine. these candidates are quite different. Israel more complicated are there areas. where they're similar there's not a lot. of similarity between these two when it. comes to foreign policy but there is one. area of the world where they actually. kind of start from a similar point of. view.

and that's. [Music]. China we'll be right. [Music]. back so Peter tell me about the two. candidates in China you said this is one. area where they do actually overlap and. maybe start with Trump here I remember. remember him coming in in 2017 and.

saying he was really going to take China. to task he was going to change things. with China he did change things with. China and I think he changed things in. Washington with regard to China the old. way of thinking about China in. Washington had been if we bring them. into the International Community if we. make them a member of the WTO if we make. them part of our. globalized system they will moderate. their behavior they will not be as big. an aggressive threat on the. international stage and maybe even.

become more democratic at home well that. theory failed and in its place Trump. created a new bipartisan consensus which. is that China is in fact an adversary. not a friend that in fact we are too. dependent on China economically and that. we ought to be more skeptical of their. leadership and their motivations and. less assuming that we can make you know. common cause with them now how he. approaches it is different than how the. Democrats would approach it he. launched really a trade war with China.

with massive tariffs and constantly. attacking their leadership but it was. all very transactional it's all for him. about economics about intellectual. property and trade and Supply chains he. didn't care at all about Taiwan and its. Perpetual conflict with China which has. always been at the heart of our. relationship with Beijing didn't care. about advances in the South China Sea or. China's bullying of the Philippines or. other neighbors in fact there was a.

really telling anecdote when he was. president and he was going to be talking. with xiin ping the Chinese president and. Nancy Pelosi the Democratic speaker. who's been a long time chy to Hawk she. told him that he should raise the plight. of the Wagers those are the Muslim. minority who are kept in camps in many. cases in China very repressed Trump did. raise it with she and then tells Pelosi. that oh it's okay she told me they like. being in those camps they like being in. camps and Pelosi was astonished right on.

what planet do people like being in. camps and and yet that's the way Trump. saw it Oh okay it's all fine what really. he cared about was economics interesting. so Peter what about Harris I mean. presumably she does care about Wagers. and democracy tell me about how she. would approach China I think Harris. would come out from the more traditional. mainly bipartisan approach Which is less. confrontational less hostile in tone and.

positioning but you know she like Biden. is not going to back down on the. economic measures that Trump put in. place I mean one of the things that. Biden did was to keep the tariffs on. China that he had criticized as a. candidate so he decided it was too. politically costly or whatever to take. them off but his approach and I think. hers would follow has been more targeted. since then they have doubled down on the. semiconductor industry in the United. States so that we are making more of.

these computer chips that are Central to. everything in our economy rather than. relying quite so much on Taiwan in. particular but China as well and the. sanctions that Biden has put in place on. China have been more narrowly formulated. in his view to get at the things we care. about most not to actually break all. ties with uh China the phrase that his. National Security advisor Jake Sullivan. uses is we are drisking not decoupling. and what does that mean Peter Well we.

were trying to take away the risks of. being too dependent on China. particularly when it comes to supply. chains decoupling means we're completely. cutting off we're no longer going to. have this economic relationship and. that's unrealistic as far as Biden is. concerned I think that Harris shares. that view so kind of a scalpel versus a. hammer when it comes to trying to get. tougher on China exactly right but. there's also the issue of Russia when it. comes to China right our relationship. with China has changed in the last three. years since Trump left office because of.

China's support for Russia's invasion in. Ukraine and Russia and China have. aligned themselves much more closely in. the last few years and that's a very. different Challenge and remind listeners. Peter what exactly China is doing for. Russia there what's the importance of. that relationship well China is propping. Russia up economically right now where. the West has cut Russia off with. sanctions and so forth where Western. companies have fled Russia and taken. their money with them it has been China. that has filled the Gap China is buying. Russian energy China is supporting.

Russia economically and the worry is. that China at some point will supply. weapons to them and China has become. Russia's best friend and Peter what. would that mean for Trump if he won I. mean Trump of course as you're pointing. out so close to Putin so admiring of. Putin and quite the opposite with China. this is an interesting not for him then. it really is ironically of course we'd. have these three countries in effect led. by strong. leaders who see the world in similar.

terms and how that would play out that's. a really interesting question I don't. know that we know the answer to that so. Peter I guess the thing that's really. striking to me here is just how. different Trump is from his party how. much he's changed in a way on Russia on. China even some ways on Israel while. Harris in many ways is very much the. product of her party is that the way. this period in American foreign policy. will be remembered is that the key. takeaway here yeah I think it's a very.

good way to put it that he is changing. his party and she is a product of hers. but it's really even not so much about. ideology it's not even really about. Democrats and Republicans it's it's it's. really about predictability and. unpredictability in other words Harris. represents a much more stable way of. looking at the world and other leaders. have a much better sense of where she. will come out on things and he's. volatile and he's Mercurial he threatens. to leave Nato one minute and has to be. walked into staying in the next that.

difference is the main difference. between them right predictability and. unpredictability and is there any. argument for. unpredictability as a deterrent like we. don't quite know where this guy's going. to come out on whatever crazy thing. we're trying to do so we maybe shouldn't. try to do it well that's certainly an. argument you hear from Trump's side. absolutely the madman man theory if you. will of foreign policy now Richard Nixon. famously used this tactic he told. Kissinger to tell foreign leaders that.

he Nixon was kind of crazy and therefore. they ought to do whatever Kissinger was. asking because well I have no idea if I. can control the boss in some ways Trump. does the same thing but with Nixon it. was a tactic with Trump it's just who he. is right he is in fact somebody who will. decide on the spur of the moment to do. something drastically different on. foreign policy without a big process and. a committee meeting and so forth so. traditionally of course America has. Preferred to have predict and stable. relations with other countries but Trump.

is again as always the outlier who. challenges that thinking on the other. hand though just to play this out if. Harris were to win you know then there's. something to be said about the fact that. four more years of the same or at least. a very similar foreign policy to Biden. might also be problematic considering. that all of these wars that we find. ourselves pretty closely related to and. very difficult to find our way out of. yeah sure of course the argument is that. traditional foreign policy hasn't worked.

well enough right that we are in these. terrible crises in Europe in the Middle. East and what has our diplomacy gotten. us now it's hard to argue a. counterfactual would it be worse if x. than y but in a world where you have. adversaries who have nuclear weapons the. argument from the Biden side is better. to keep things from boiling over in a. much worse way maybe you know a trumpian. unpredictability. is a deterrent on some level but it's.

better from their point of view anyway. to have predictability because outcomes. could be a whole lot worse Peter what do. you think this. unpredictability does to American power. and America's place in the. world well it's a really good question. because in fact it used to be that the. United States was the reliable. actor you pretty much knew where the. United States was going to fall on major. issues in the world and other countries.

responded accordingly didn't mean that. everybody did what the United States. wanted them to do by any stretch but. that that predictability that. reliability was Central to at least a. broad sense of order in the. world what you hear now from foreign. officials is we don't know whether you. guys are going to be there or not. they're like okay is Trump the. aberration or is Biden the adoration. which one stands for where America.

really plans to be from now on with the. real America please stand up we'll know. a lot more come. November Peter thank you thank. you we'll be right back. here's what else you should know today.

on Sunday Israel launched long-distance. air strikes in Yemen targeting shipping. and power supplies of the houthis. another group backed by Iran that has. attacked Israel over the past year prime. minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the. show of force against multiple enemies. at once was part of a broader strategy. to create a new balance of power in the. Middle East a spokesman for the Biden. Administration reiterated that the White.

House wants a diplomatic solution rather. than an allout. war and very serious situation in the. South the catastrophic aftermath of. hurricane Helen millions of people are. still without power whole communities. have been flattened over the weekend. search and rescue efforts started in the. South as more than six states reeled. from the aftermath of Hurricane Helen. conditions are now safe enough in. multiple States for officials start. surveying the damage and what they are.

seeing in terms of Helen's wrath is. horrifying so many communities in the. Carolina mountains are now essentially. cut off by Road there are much needed. supplies that are being flown in in the. same time the storm which made landfall. along Florida's Big Bend region carried. strong winds and heavy rain far inland. wreaking havoc in mostly rural areas in. Tennessee Georgia South and North. Carolina and Virginia I don't think. anyone was from prepared for it I don't. think anyone thought it would be this.

bad there's probably 50 trees blocking. my neighbor from coming out I started. help them yesterday the Neighbors at the. other end of the road we got us out but. the other neighbors are trapped as of. Sunday afternoon the death toll from the. storm totaled more than 90 people but. officials said to expect that number to. rise as they reached residents who were. stranded at their homes or were still. unaccounted. [Music]. for today's episode was produced by Nina. Feldman Mary Wilson relle Banja and.

Carlos PR it was edited by Lexi Dio and. Patricia willins contains original music. by Alicia vbe and Marian Lozano and was. engineered by Alyssa. Moxley special thanks to you and Ward. our theme music is by Jim brunberg and. Ben Lanser of wonderly. [Music]. that's it for the daily I'm Sabrina.

Tavern see you tomorrow. [Music].