After Venezuela, Is Cuba Next?

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie. Kitroeff. [music] This is The Daily. >> [music]. >> For more than six decades, the United. States has tried [music]. and failed to topple the regime in Cuba. But after ousting Cuba's closest ally, [music] Nicolas Maduro, and pushing the. country into dire economic crisis, the. Trump administration is closer [music]. than ever to forcing radical change on.

the island. Today, [music] my colleagues Frances. Robles and Michael Crowley on how this. latest escalation [music] is pushing. Cuba to the brink, and whether this. time, finally, the US government will. get what it wants. >> [music]. >> It's Tuesday, February 17th.

>> [music]. >> Frances, it's wonderful to have you here. on The Daily. Thanks for having me. So, I think it's fair to say you are The New. York Times Cuba Whisperer. You've been. covering Cuba for how long? Decades? Decades. I actually looked it up today. I wanted to see what was my first. article about Cuba, and it was the. summer of. 1993. Wow.

So, you obviously have seen this country. go through crisis after crisis in that. time. But I think there is something about. this moment that feels different, at. least for me looking at what's playing. out on the island. Does that feel right to you? 100%. I interviewed an economist who. told me a funny joke that says, "How. come Cubans have such short index. fingers?" Well, I don't know why. Well, it's from banging their finger on the. table for years saying, "Next year we'll.

be having roast pork in Havana at. Christmas.". They've been saying this for 60 years. that this is the last year of the Cuban. regime. But then this [clears throat]. time, all the people that I interview, very serious people, academics, economists, people who have written. books on the subject, they all say the. same thing. They say, "You know what? This time it might actually be true.". And the word that you hear over and over. again is unsustainable. This current situation in Cuba is.

unsustainable. And what's unsustainable. about it? What are the people that. you're talking to say? The big issue. right now, Cuba produces about 40% of. the oil that it needs for domestic. purposes. And so it was receiving the. other 60% either from Venezuela or from. Mexico. Now it is getting zero of that. Acute fuel shortages have gotten even. worse after US President Donald Trump. announced 2 weeks ago that he'd impose. tariffs on any country sending oil to.

Cuba. The standoff between the two countries. is raising fears over a full-blown. humanitarian crisis. [music]. And so you're starting to see buses are. not going to be able to run. >> same time, hospitals have already shut. down in the last days. And schools and. universities have had to reduce their. teaching schedules to save [music] fuel. They're announcing that banks will only. be open by certain days. Everyone's. riding tricycles now. The car business. is falling apart. They're going to get.

to a point where they don't have the. gasoline to deliver food to the store. So what are people supposed to do? I'm going to look for a better life. because things here are really bad. That's the big thing that people are. wondering. How long [music] does this go. on for and how bad does it get before. somebody cries uncle. >> [music]. >> Right. You're saying basically that a. corner has been turned in Cuba after. years and years of suffering, there may.

be a kind of change coming. And what we. understand from your reporting and from. honestly the public statements of the. administration is that this crisis that. Cuba is facing now is intentional. It's. the result of a carefully planned policy. right by the Trump administration. Can. you just lay out for me why? Why has the. US been so dead set on toppling the. regime in Cuba?

I guess it comes down to the simple fact. that the United States government does. not want a communist regime in their. backyard. I mean, a one-party state, a. centralized economy, lack of basic. freedoms, jailed dissidents. This is the antithesis of what the. United States represents and what it. wants in the Western Hemisphere. Right. And so we have to turn the clock back to. 1960.

Fidel Castro wins the revolution in. 1959, but it's in 1960 that he. announces, you know, his intention, his. sort of socialist zeal. Cuba goes on a patriotic binge after the. government seizes its score of US. companies.

And he starts confiscating lots of. industries. Oil refinery, the sugar industry, the. telephone company, banks, never mind. private property, you know, people's. houses. So that gives the United States the. reason, you know, oh, oh, you're going. to confiscate our oil company? Well, watch this. So, this is where the United States. government really starts its very. aggressive stance against Cuba and its.

quest its decades long quest to topple. this regime. Right. The assault has begun on the. dictatorship of Fidel Castro. Cuba In 1961, we invaded Cuba. landing over 1,000 men at the Bay of. Pigs in what was absolutely disaster for. the United States. Short time after that, the Kennedy administration made a full. embargo on Cuba and that meant.

cutting off any kind of ability Cuba. would have to buy anything on the. international market. So, near total. isolation. Yes, near total isolation. [music]. It shall be the policy of this nation. to regard any nuclear missile. launched from Cuba against any nation in. the Western Hemisphere. as an attack. by the Soviet Union on the United States. requiring a full retaliatory response. upon the Soviet Union. And then, 1962,

Cuban Missile Crisis. You know, we. almost went to nuclear war with Cuba. because it was discovered that Cuba had. allowed Russia to place nuclear missiles. on the island and so that was an. incredibly tense moment. Mhm. During all. this time, the CIA is trying to kill. Fidel Castro left and right. I mean, there's you know, lots of lore about. poisoned cigars and things of that. nature and he always survived. They. always came out standing.

>> [music]. >> And one of the reasons they did, I think. it's really important to underscore that. one of the mechanisms that the Cuban. government had was migration. It was an. escape valve. Whenever things got too. hot, when the discontent got to be too. much, when it was clear that people were. really unhappy, Fidel Castro would open. the doors and let people out. And so, for example, in the spring of 1980, you.

had a major incident that was known as. the Mariel boatlift. >> Today, 23 boats filled with over 800. Cubans reached Key West, Florida. US. Marine It started with a protest at the. Peruvian Embassy, and it ended with. 125,000 people getting on boats and. literally just sailing to South Florida. The president has literally opened the. floodgates, placing no limitations on. the number of Cubans entering the United. States. >> [music].

>> And you're saying Fidel Castro actually. encouraged this. He said, "Please, leave. These boats can go wherever you want. them to. Don't stay here." That's. absolutely right. You know, for for. many, many years, until fairly recently, maybe about a decade ago, it was very. difficult to leave Cuba. You had to get. an exit card to go. And so, this was his. blanket exit card for everybody. People's families were coming from from. the United States with boats to pick. people up. Like, "Okay, we can go. Let's.

go." He also emptied prisons and mental. institutions. But, the thing that's. really important to note is that it's a. technique that the Cuban government has. used periodically for the past 66 years. Got it. >> But, it wasn't the only way that they. survived. The other thing that was a. really important issue was that they. were able to turn to the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union kept Cuba afloat. But, the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

>> Right. And that launches a really, really horrible time for Cuba, which is. known very euphemistically as the. {quote} special period. And it's a time. of really severe food shortages, um just. a lot of suffering throughout the entire. island. In fact, it launches another. migration episode. >> Mhm. So, it's just yet another moment in. this history where everybody thought, "Wow, it can't get worse. Look at how. bad this is. This is absolute chaos.".

Everyone was convinced that it had to be. the end. And just thinking about the history that. you've sketched out here, it feels like. at every turn the US. thought that it was creating the. conditions that would internally, you. know, force people to rise up inside of. Cuba, that it would force change from. within by creating this pressure cooker. But the Cuban regime responded to that. by saying, "Well, it's not a pressure.

cooker if we have a valve, and that. valve is sending people to the United. States." Basically, exporting the people. who are most likely to push for change. from within. That's absolutely right, Natalie. You know, and the end result of. that is this huge Cuban-American. community in South Florida that has. become a really powerful movement that. has Congress people who's have always. helped dictate Cuba policy. And you have.

a lot of people who were supporters of. this idea that the US had to play a key. role in helping to topple the Castro. government. So, back in Cuba, the regime has survived the special. period, but they've lost their biggest. benefactor in the Soviet Union. So, what. do they do? Well, when you lose your sugar daddy, you got to get yourself another one. So, when Soviet Union fell, they started. relying on Venezuela.

The. kept them afloat for almost 25 years. The other thing they did was open to. tourism. So, let's if you'll allow me to jump. forward in time a little bit. President. Obama decides that he's going to try the. exact opposite of what everybody else. tried, you know. So, everybody else is. trying to suffocate Cuba to get them to. fold. He's like, you know what? We're. going to do the opposite. We're going to. let people visit. We're going to let, you know, private businesses get. licenses to do business there. They were.

hoping that the opening of Cuba will. allow it to fold. Right. >> We'll get all the Cubans on the island. to say, "Wait a second. You mean there's. an internet? There's cell phones? You. know, I I want a piece of that." And so, from about, let's say, 2015, '16, '17, you see this big boom in tourism. And. that's another point where people think, "Oh, yeah. Now the Cuban government is. really going to end because there's no. way that people in Cuba will see how the. rest of the world lives Right. and be.

able to stick it out with this. government." The idea from the Obama. administration at the time was, "Okay, sticks have not worked in Cuba for like. half a century. So, we should try. something else. And that something else. should be exposing Cubans to the. benefits of capitalism." That's exactly. right. It didn't exactly work because. the Cuban government saw it as a Trojan. horse. And they put up a lot of. obstacles to that opening. So, other.

than a few years of a lot of tourism, the economic opening never really. happened. Right. But, when Trump comes. along, he basically says, "Okay, well, that's enough of that." You know, so, he. reverses just about everything that. President Obama had done. You know, and. he puts back in travel restrictions, restrictions on sending money to Cuba, restrictions on doing business there. And he takes things very much back to. the traditional Republican we're going. to choke these people until they fold.

strategy. So, back to sticks, basically. Back to. sticks. That's was always going to be Trump's. plan. And what's interesting is, you know, the. Trump administration ended, Biden took. his place, and he didn't change that much, to be. honest. Mhm. A lot of these measures. stayed in place. But then Trump won again, and you get. this sense that this administration. decided this is our shot.

That this is going to be the. administration that succeeds where so. many before them failed. And what they've done has really brought. the Cuban government to its worst crisis. that it's suffered in its 67 years in. existence. Its future has never been more. precarious. >> [music]. >> After the break, we get inside the Trump.

administration's strategy with my. colleague Michael Crowley. We'll be right back. So, Michael, our colleague Frenche. Robles just told us that the Cuban. regime is more vulnerable than it's ever. been because of the policies that the. Trump administration has carried out. You cover the administration's foreign. policy. So, take me inside that story. What are you seeing? >> [gasps].

>> Well, this is very much by design. You. know, the Trump administration. until now has not talked a lot about. Cuba, but has always had big plans for. Cuba. And I think it's important to. understand how much this is coming from. Marco Rubio. Mhm. Rubio is driving this, and we may be approaching an end game. that Rubio has worked towards for. decades now. Okay, so Rubio is. absolutely central, you're saying. Why.

is this his singular obsession? Just. tell me what his motivations are. You know, let's start with his. background and origins. Rubio is. Cuban-American. His parents fled to the United States. from Cuba before Castro took power in. 1959, but were very strongly. anti-Castro. So, Rubio grows up in a. community of Cuban exiles, and he makes. it really his signature issue.

as he dives into the politics of South. Florida, where Cuban exiles who are. vituperatively opposed to the Cuban. regime have enormous influence. And. Rubio has made his opposition to the. Cuban government and his efforts to. promote its overthrow central to his. political identity for his entire. career. And maybe the most vivid detail. to underscore that is when Rubio himself. ran for president in 2016. Thank.

[cheering] you. Thank you. He announced his campaign at. what is known as the Freedom Tower in. Miami. In this very room, five decades ago, tens of thousands of Cuban exiles began. their new lives in America. >> Which was the first stop for those Cuban. refugees to sort of announce their. arrival in the US. And if America once. again accepts the mantle of global. leadership. By ending the near total disregard.

for the erosion of democracy and human. rights around the world, especially. Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. It's interesting, you're saying his. career was forged inside this. Cuban-American community that, Frenchy. told us this as well, has been both. powerful and very keen on toppling the. Castro regime. This is Rubio. This is. his people. That's right. This is at the core of his. personal and political identity. And I.

think that for him, possibly even more. than for President Trump, getting rid of. the current Cuban government would be a. sort of crowning legacy achievement that. would make him feel like his political. career had all been worth it. It's all. been kind of working toward this if he. can get it. >> [music]. >> And obviously now he has the reins of US. foreign policy as Secretary of State, as. National Security Advisor. So, how have.

you seen this play out for him? Well, you've seen this incredible focus. by the Trump administration on the. Western Hemisphere and in particular. Latin America. And Rubio really. spearheaded the Trump administration's. pressure on Venezuela's leader Nicolas. Maduro, which ultimately led to Maduro's. capture. in early January. Now, this actually. goes straight to the Cuba question that.

we're talking about. I know from my. reporting that Rubio has made a very. explicit connection between bringing. down Maduro and bringing down the Cuban. government. Hmm. The thinking is that. Venezuela and Cuba became very close. allies over the past few decades. The. Cubans provided Venezuelans with. military training and intelligence, and. the Venezuelans were shipping large.

amounts of oil to Cuba. Cuba doesn't. have a lot of oil suppliers. So, Rubio's. calculus was, if you can get rid of. Maduro and cut off those Cuban oil. supplies to Havana. That is a huge blow. that brings you a lot closer to bringing. down the Cuban government. You're saying. that Rubio wanted to oust Maduro because. he's not in favor of this regime, obviously, but also he sees this as a. way of weakening Cuba. Frenchie had told.

us that Cuba had come to rely on. Venezuela for oil, and so by getting. control of Venezuela's oil, Rubio thinks. that he can directly impact the Cuban. regime. That's right. I think for Rubio, probably the most important thing about. what's happening in Venezuela right now, is that we have forced Venezuela to stop. shipping oil to Cuba. Right. And to lose. such a key nearby ally and an oil.

supplier in Venezuela is a major. development and a really bad one for the. Cubans. On top of that, the Trump administration. is pressuring other countries to not. step in and come to the rescue of the. Cubans. And in late January, President. Trump issued an executive order. threatening tariffs against any country. that supplied Cuba with oil. So now we. have already seen another major blow for. the Cuban government, which is that the. president of Mexico has said that she.

has suspended oil shipments to the. island. And Mexico had actually overtaken. Venezuela recently as the island's top. supplier. So that's the second major supplier to. the Cuban government that has stopped. sending oil just this year. Right. It's. just a major loss for the Cuban regime. And having covered Mexico as the bureau. chief there, I can say that the. president, Claudia Sheinbaum, just it. must have been an incredibly wrenching. moment for her. She's a leftist, she's. the daughter of left-wing parents, she's.

been an outspoken supporter of the Cuban. government, and I can imagine she's. looking at this situation where she's. really between a rock and a hard place. I mean, Trump's not giving her or any. country much of a choice here. You're absolutely right. But I think. what we're seeing is the reality today. that American economic might. coupled with President Trump's. willingness to use that economic power. in ways that other presidents have not.

And then I think this long slow dimming. of the glamour of the Cuban revolution. and Fidel Castro and the impact he had. on people around Latin America, I think. that it's probably a little more doable. than it was say a generation ago. Right. The Castros are no longer in power. It's. been a long time since the revolution. I. mean, things have changed on the island, too. You're right. Yeah. Yeah. So, I. think that brings us to the present day. where this policy has now really put.

Cuba in this extremely difficult. situation where conditions on the ground. are just very dire, no oil is coming in, and this island seems close to an. all-out humanitarian crisis. My question is, how in the minds of. Marco Rubio and President Trump do you. get from a humanitarian crisis to regime. change? Like, what's the calculation there? It's not. easy, and. you [clears throat] know, honestly, it's.

not clear to me that they have it. entirely figured out because there's. just not a simple way to do this. Hm. You know, it's very clear that Rubio in. particular wants to see this regime. brought down and consigned to the. dustbin of history. But at the same. time, I think Rubio recognizes that this. is not something you can do overnight. for a bunch of reasons. And you know, one of them is that it comes with real. risks. I've been talking in my reporting.

to a lot of people who track Cuba. extremely closely. And you know, what they warn is that. this is a monolithic brittle. political system. There's no political opposition because. the government there has been repressive. for so long. It's going to be really hard to find. some kind of a. opposition leader who could take over or. even to do some kind of a short-term. transition to a different government. And if you bring down the entire.

government without something to replace. it, you risk total chaos, violence, mass migration from Cuba toward Florida, a lot of conditions that would put the. Trump administration in a very. uncomfortable position of having to make. choices about what they do next. So, the question is, is there a way that. you can. kind of engineer a a soft landing? What would that look like, Michael, a.

soft landing? I am wondering what the. best-case scenario the Trump. administration imagines here. Like, are. they looking to find a partner within. the Cuban regime that they could work. with to kind of negotiate change? Someone like Delcy Rodríguez in. Venezuela, the former vice president to. Maduro who's now leading the country and. working with the US? Is that the best. case here? Well, it could be. But the experts that.

I talked to say, in the words of one of. them, it's a fool's errand to try to. find a Delcy Rodríguez in Cuba. Why? Because of the nature of their. political system, number one, it's very. unlikely that you would have somebody. who is willing to kind of step out of. the political culture and allow. themselves to be seen as a sort of a. American puppet. At least in Venezuela, you have a substantial part of the. population. that has some sympathy for the United.

States, but there's just going to be. very little of that. in Cuba. The other problem is that it's. a question of what you would want from. the Cubans. And. Rubio gave an interview over the weekend. that gave us some clues as to what they. might be thinking. And he said that it's really important. that Cuba's government agree to some. significant changes to its state-run. socialist economy. He really emphasized.

the economy over the political system. But he has made clear many times over. the years that other deals the US has. struck with the Cuban government, which. in his view have led to. very incremental reforms, were almost worse than nothing. You know, Rubio's reaction is that. that's the Cuban government being. dishonest, playing for time, making. promises it has no intention of keeping, and eventually reneging on. Well, and to.

be fair, it's true that this regime is. absolutely expert in buying time. That. is what they have done over and over. again. This is a a pattern, a. well-established pattern. That's. absolutely right. So, that leaves you. with a situation where it looks like the. Cuban government would have to. essentially agree to its own demise to. get Trump off its back. And that seems. very unlikely. I mean, it's basically. suicidal. Again, you know, I'm talking. to many people who followed the Cuban.

leadership over the years, and they say. that they they just can't imagine that. happening. Now, at the same time, if this economy and society is totally. collapsing around them, and who knows, maybe at some point you start having. popular protests, that could convince them to make a deal. like that. But that's a very extreme. situation. Michael, given those complications, can. we actually just drill down on what. Trump wants here, big picture? It's not as if Cuba has a ton to offer.

at the negotiating table with the US. We. know for Rubio this is personal, but my. impression is that outside of the large. Cuban-American community in South. Florida, not many Americans see toppling. the Cuban regime as a huge priority. So, what does Trump care about here? >> great question. I think that most of the. time very few Americans are thinking. about Cuba. and don't really care that much about. it. But having said that, I still think. there's little doubt that if President.

Trump were to. bring down. the communist government of Cuba. implanted by Fidel Castro almost 70. years ago. and he was able to do it without. destroying Cuba along the way. I really think that that would be widely. regarded around the world as kind of a. historic triumph. He will have solved a. foreign policy problem that many.

presidents before him were stymied by. Going back to Dwight Eisenhower. And even those Americans who aren't. thinking about Cuba 99.99%. of the time. if they were to hear that there had been. a breakthrough that the communist. government was stepping down or had. paved the way for its own replacement in. some credible way, I think it would have. a real power. >> [music]. >> Well, Michael, thank you so much. Thank you for having me.

>> [music]. [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Monday, a federal judge ordered the. Trump administration to temporarily. restore displays about George. Washington's ownership of enslaved. people at the site of his former house. in Philadelphia. [music].

Last month, National Park Service. workers arrived at the site [music] and. took down displays and video exhibits. describing the nine enslaved people. [music] Washington kept there while he. was president. The Park Service said the displays were. taken down to ensure, quote, accuracy, honesty, and alignment with shared. national values. In her [music] order, the judge wrote. that anyone who visits the President's. House and doesn't learn about founding. era slavery [music]. would get a, quote, false account of.

this country's history. And I love the smell of napalm in the. morning. Smells like. victory. The actor [music] Robert Duvall died on. Sunday at the age of 95. He was known for a delightfully wide. range of leading and supporting roles. [music]. from a principled cowboy to a mafia. consigliere. Nobody has ever gunned down. a New York police captain, never. It.

would be disastrous. All the five. families would come after you, Sonny. The Corleone family would be outcasts. In [music] a prolific career spanning. more than six decades, Duvall was. nominated for seven Academy Awards and. won once. I don't know why I wandered after this. part of Texas drunk and [music] you took. me in and pitied me and helped me to. straighten out, married me. For his performance as a boozy, washed-up country star in Tender. Mercies. [music]. See, I don't trust hatters. I never did, I never will. His signature.

was immersing himself so deeply in every. role [music]. that he almost seemed to become his. characters. To prepare for his films, he spent. [music] time with police detectives, hung out with an ex-convict, and sang. with a country band. This character is like Shakespeare, I. think. [music]. Duvall's own favorite role was none of. his major big screen characters. I said. like let that English play Hamlet and. >> [music]. >> and and King Lear, that's wonderful. I'll play Augustus McCrae. I mean, he's. like a modern day knight. It was as.

Augustus McCrae, a Texas Ranger in. Lonesome Dove, a mini-series [music]. based on a Larry McMurtry novel. Today's episode [music] was produced by. Carlos Prieto, Olivia Nat, Claire Tennen. Getter, and Astha Chaturvedi. It was edited by [music] Liz O'Baylen. and Paige Cowett. Contains music by Rowan Nima Stow, Alisha [music]. Etoo, and Marion Lozano. And was. engineered by Chris Wood.

>> [music]. >> That's it for The Daily. I'm Natalie. Kitroeff. See you tomorrow.