A Sudden Escalation in Ukraine Before Trump Takes Office

from The New York Times I'm Sabrina. tavernes and this is the. [Music]. daily president-elect Donald Trump has. promised a radically different approach. to foreign policy from the Biden. Administration perhaps nowhere more so. than in Ukraine where Trump has pledged. to end the war in a day but just weeks. before he's set to take office the war. has taken an unexpected. turn today.

my colleague Anton trovi on the. conflict's dangerous new. [Music]. [Applause]. [Music]. phase it's Monday November. [Music]. 25th so Anton we've seen this real. ratcheting up in the war in Ukraine over. the past week help us understand what's. going on well.

we've seen a bunch of new developments. that are really quite dangerous quite. escalatory we have seen missiles flying. across the border between Russia and. Ukraine in a way we haven't seen before. we have seen the Biden Administration. taking steps that they have not been. willing to take before and we've seen a. new kind of rhetoric from President. Putin in Moscow and what this this all.

adds up to is that the war is becoming. more dangerous more volatile and. specifically what's happening is that. we're getting closer to this war in. Ukraine turning into a broader war. between Russia and the West so Anton. this is very striking because you know. just a few months ago we were talking. about the Russians digging into. positions in eastern Ukraine and it was. this protracted Trench.

Warfare how did we get from there to. here the turning point was early. August the unthinkable for many Russians. is now a reality their Homeland. invaded Ukraine broke that stalemate by. invading Russia it's the first time. there's been a foreign incursion of. Russia since World War II Ukrainian. troops went into Russia's K region On.

the Border captured about 400 square mil. of territory and delivered this huge. embarrassment to Vladimir Putin who it. turned out couldn't even protect what. was internationally recognized Russian. territory UK Ukraine is proving that it. truly knows how to restore Justice and. is providing the exact pressure needed. that incursion into K was a big morale. boost for Ukraine but it came at a cost.

Russians are making gains capturing. partially destroyed Villages raising the. Russian tricolor. [Music]. flag in order to do it Ukraine had to. thin out its troops in eastern Ukraine. where Russia was advancing they just. don't have the Personnel to hold all. this territory and as a result Russia. was actually able to push forward in. eastern Ukraine at a much higher clip.

than before in other words for the first. time in a long time the front line was. actually moving and it was moving to. Russia's Advantage. exactly and then this fall Vladimir. Putin pulled out his own surprise the. Pentagon confirmed that there are North. Korean troops now in Russia especially. in the region of KK which is this. bringing in North Korean troops. reportedly there's something like. 10,000 troops groups from North Korea.

that are fighting or getting ready to. fight on the Russian side and that was a. really remarkable moment right because. Suddenly It's about more than just. Russia and Ukraine there's a third. country involved exactly and think about. North Korea how important that country. is strategically as a nuclear armed. adversary of the United States and what. it shows about how close the Strategic. relationship between Russ Russia and.

North Korea has become that has sent. shock waves really around the. [Music]. world okay so you've laid out this. pretty major shift in the war but of. course all of this was happening in the. months leading up to the US election one. of course by Donald Trump exactly and. Donald Trump's victory in the election. is going to have enormous repercussions. for the war remember his campaign he.

refused to say that he wanted Ukraine to. win the war he promised to end the war. in 24 hours which was widely seen as him. being open to a deal that could. essentially sell Ukraine out to Russia. he brought on JD Vance as his vice. president who has been extremely. critical of American support for Ukraine. so you've had so many signals coming. from the Trump camp that his presidency.

will be much tougher for Ukraine than. the Biden presidency was so Trump's. election in other words was very bad. news for the ukrainians because the. Americans and Biden in particular was. their biggest Ally and he's gone yes so. when Donald Trump won president zalinski. in. Ukraine swung into win over Donald Trump. mode and you know he was one of the. first world leaders to to have a phone.

call with him he tweeted congratulating. Trump on impressive election Victory and. so there's a hope in Ukraine that Trump. will still want to support their fight. that supporting Ukraine will be kind of. a way that Trump projects American. strength globally but still I think. there's a huge amount of concern among. supporters of Ukraine every where that.

Trump will just see it as much less of a. national interest for the US to allow. Ukraine to keep fighting and somehow. defeat Russia in this war right which by. definition is good for Russia so tell us. how Putin and Russia are thinking about. this Trump win so to step back for a sec. Putin's fundamental bet throughout this. war has been that at the end of the day. Russia cares more about Ukraine and is.

willing to sacrifice more to win in. Ukraine than does the West than do the. United States and so to Putin Trump's. Victory shows that at the end of the day. many Americans don't care enough about. Ukraine to continue sending tens of. billions of dollars of weapons there and. to be in a situation where Russia is. threatening an escalation that could.

draw the us into a direct war with the. world's other nuclear superpower at the. same time it also brings Putin closer to. something he could call Victory in. Ukraine because Putin's primary goal at. this point is not to capture more. territory his main goal is some kind of. deal that would allow him to end the war. and say he won it okay so basically with. Trump's Victory it really seemed like.

things were on a Glide path to exactly. the kind of outcome that Putin wanted. not quite because for one thing Donald. Trump is not in power yet and the Biden. Administration has been very clear on. seeking to continue to support Ukraine. that became even more clear in the last. couple weeks when President Biden made a. really important shift in his own. [Music]. policy for the first first time he.

allowed Ukraine to use American missiles. to strike deep inside Russian territory. these missiles are called attacks they. have a range of 190 Mi Ukraine has been. asking for months if not longer to be. able to use these missiles for those. kinds of strikes inside Russia in order. to disrupt Russia's ability to build up. its forces resupply its forces and wage.

this war the Biden Administration has. resisted that because they feared that. that would be the kind of thing that. could really push Putin to escalate the. war in a new way but then Putin brought. in those North Korean troops that we. talked about and that apparently as our. colleagues in Washington have reported. is what pushed President Biden to change. course and allow Ukraine to use those. American missiles for strikes inside.

Russia and how soon does Ukraine make. use of these longrange Rockets just. about. immediately tonight anxious hours after. Ukraine fired American made long-range. missiles called attack last Tuesday they. fired these attack missiles and hit an. Ammunition Depot in the Brans region of. Southwestern Russia and then on. Wednesday Ukraine fired Storm Shadow. cruise missiles which are these British. manufacturers. long range missiles into the K region.

neither of those as far as we know did. massive damage but the symbolism was. enormous for the first time Ukraine was. firing Western provided missiles deep. into Russian territory leaving everyone. asking what does Putin do now.

we'll be right. back so you've set up this very high. stakes moment for Putin the US has. crossed his Red Line allowing the use of. these missiles into Russia they're kind. of throwing down the glove if you will. what does Putin do the first thing we. see is early the week less than two days.

after the news comes out that President. Biden is going to allow Ukraine to. strike Russian territory with those. americanmade missiles Putin approves. Russia's revised nuclear Doctrine what. does that mean so it sounds bureaucratic. but it's actually pretty serious the. nuclear Doctrine defines how and when. Russia would consider using its nuclear.

weapons and remember Russia has a. massive stockpile of nuclear weapons so. Putin revises this Doctrine to lower the. Threshold at which Russia would consider. using nuclear weapons and not just that. he also updates it to say that an attack. from a non-nuclear state if backed by a. nuclear power will be treated as a joint. attack on Russia a looser trigger so to. speak and specifically it relates to.

Ukraine because Ukraine not a nuclear. power but the United States is a nuclear. power exactly Putin has this enormous. nuclear Arsenal but he hasn't been able. to figure out how to use it effectively. as a deterrent against the US and so. that's what this new doctrine is about. finding a new way basically to scare. Americans and it seems that it did in a. way last Wednesday the US Embassy in.

keev issued this urgent warning saying. that Russia might launch a significant. Air Attack and closed its Embassy and. told employees to shelter in place which. was a really rare move obviously ke has. been attacked many many times during the. course of the last Almost 3 years and. for much of that time the embassy has. been operating so closing the embassy. was another signal that things were.

getting even more dangerous so what. happens was there an attack so on. Thursday there was Russia raised the. stakes in the war against Ukraine by. firing an experimental ballistic missile. and it's the first of its kind to be. used in this conflict and Russia does. something it hasn't done since the start. of the war which is to use a new missile. something similar to the kind that's. used to to deliver strategic nuclear.

weapons it has a range of 3,000 Mi that. means it's a weapon that could be. capable of reaching targets across. Europe we're talking about something. that would be used for a large scale. nuclear attack and it uses this missile. to strike in a Ukrainian City Neo this. is a kind of missile that releases. multiple Warheads so you see in videos. of this attack these multiple glowing. orbs kind of dropping one after the.

other it's the kind of missile developed. to do really massive. damage to be clear this particular. missile didn't have nuclear warheads in. it but think about the message that. that's sending and on top of all that. these Warheads are designed to attack at. Hypersonic speeds meaning multiple times. the speed of sound interesting huh so. air defenses don't work against them.

exactly and so it was all about sending. this signal that Russia was ready to. respond and ready to escalate. further so Putin keeps trying to get the. West to listen to pay attention. absolutely and he doesn't just launch. that. missile he then gives a speech a IED. speech to the nation of the kind he.

delivers very. rarely he's sitting in what looks like. the same wood panel office as where he. was when he launched the invasion in. February. 2022 he looked pretty tired pretty. weary aggrieved and he says. we consider ourselves entitled to use.

our weapons against the military. facilities of those countries that allow. their weapons to be used against our. facilities in other words a direct. reference to what happened with Biden. allowing the use of the attacks exactly. last. week and so it sounds like what he's. saying here is that he would be willing. to attack the US.

yeah you know it's the kind of threat. he's made throughout this war kind of. vaguely but this is the most explicit. we've heard him say this and toward the. end of the speech he lays that out and. then comes back with yet another threat. he. says I would like to emphasize once. again that it was not Russia but the. United States that destroyed the. International Security System and by. continuing to fight and cling to its.

hegemony they are pushing the whole. world into a global. conflict we have always preferred and. are ready now to resolve all disputes by. peaceful means but we are also ready for. any turn of events if anyone still. doubts this make no mistake there will. always be a response.

so this is pretty remarkable and seems. pretty. frightening what did you make of it. Anton I mean you've been following Putin. for a long time yeah I mean Putin has. been making threats toward the west. including with references veiled. references to his nuclear Arsenal since. day one of the invasion but what makes. this situation I think particularly.

concerning is the specificity of it you. know Putin's previous threats have been. quite vague and so that's the concerning. thing here so what does all of this mean. for the possibility of an end to the war. of a settlement like we've been talking. about well it's definitely a strange. moment because people have been talking. more seriously about the potential for a. settlement and how that would look than. really at any point since the early.

months of the war and so as that's. happening you know you have Putin going. essentially all in on this escalatory. threat that if he continues to make good. on it would clearly make it harder for. Donald Trump to actually engage in some. kind of negotiations with Putin you know. think about obviously God forbid if. there were to be a direct Russian attack.

on any kind of American facility how. could Donald Trump at that point do. something that would make it look like. he is doing Putin's bidding in Ukraine. right but I guess big picture here Putin. does want the war to be over and he. seems to be in a pretty good position to. achieve that yes he does but there's. still a few weeks to go before Trump. comes in and starts trying to end this. and so in the meantime there's this.

pretty frantic incredibly bloody effort. by both sides by both Russia and Ukraine. to try to grab as much territory or hold. on to as much territory as possible. before potential negotiations begin so. what you're seeing for one thing is. Putin pushing really hard to get the. Ukrainian military out of K and that of. course is also where Ukraine is using. those new American and British British. missiles to try to slow the Russian.

counter offensive there and then you've. also got Russia really pushing hard in. the donbas region of eastern Ukraine. trying to grab as much territory as they. can despite those casualty rates of a. thousand people a day or more that. Russia is losing so there's definitely a. lot of jockeying happening ahead of the. expectation that when Trump comes to. power he'll at least try. to create the conditions for some kind.

of. settlement okay so. fundamentally we are now likely looking. at the beginning of the end of this war. with Putin as the winner well he's still. got to get a deal and ultimately he'll. still need to sit down at some sort of. negotiating table to get that he's been. pretty explicit about what he wants he's. made clear that he will not give up. territory the territory that Russia has. captured that's for.

sure but what Putin clearly cares more. about than territory is the political. aspect and the geopolitical aspect of. some kind of agreement so most important. is that Ukraine will never join NATO and. then on the other end of course Ukraine. clearly is going to have a say in this. as well for Ukraine what's become clear. is that for them also so territory is.

not the most important thing you know it. it does look like there's more and more. acceptance that in order to bring this. war to a close Ukraine will have to. accept Russian occupation of part of its. lands so what Ukraine cares about the. most is what are referred to as security. guarantees how will Ukraine feel assured. that Russia won't just reconstitute its. forces and attack again a few years from. now so then the question is going to.

become how can Ukraine get security. guarantees without being part of the. NATO alliance will countries actually. sign up for some kind of agreement in. which they'll be treaty bound to come to. Ukraine's defense if Russia attacks. again right if there's anything we've. learned over the past few weeks it's. just how tenuous that Western support. can be yeah definitely you know Russia.

and Ukraine actually did sit down at the. negotiating table together in the first. few weeks of the war and one of the. reasons we've reported that that. negotiation fell apart back in the. spring of 2022 is that they couldn't. actually figure out a mechanism for. those security guarantees for Ukraine. that would work interesting how do you. make Ukraine feel reasonably safe from a. new Russian attack that was never solved. back then and it's clearly going to be.

the biggest challenge. now and that's a really hard problem to. solve the West is tired and it clearly. does not seem very inclined to come to. the aid of Ukraine this country that is. the obsession of this very tenacious and. very dangerous leader Putin so at the. end of the day Anton is Putin getting. away with. [Music]. it well. let's remember first of all that both.

the west and Putin have been surprised. repeatedly during this war by Ukraine's. tenacity and Ukraine's will to fight we. have not seen much sign at this point. even though Ukrainian soldiers are. clearly very tired and uh Ukraine is. struggling to get enough men on the. battlefield but still we're not seeing. that Ukraine is actually ready to stop. fighting you know and that means you. could even imagine scenario where even. if Trump tries to force some kind of.

peace deal Ukraine might try to continue. to. fight but big picture Sabrina you raise. an important Point Putin has been waging. the biggest war of aggression that. Europe has seen since World War II it's. a war that has cost hundreds of. thousands of lives in terms of killed. and injured soldiers and not to mention. the civilians that have died in Ukraine. but despite all the Western sanctions.

and the tremendous amounts of Weaponry. that Ukraine has received from the West. Putin is still going domestically he's. as powerful as he's ever been and. globally you know he may be a pariah in. the west but outside the West Russia. continues to have a lot of influence so. as we approach the three-year Mark of. this war it is time I think for serious. questions about what the West has and. hasn't been able to accomplish in. supporting Ukraine the West has been.

able to keep Ukraine in the fight but it. has not been able to stop. [Music]. Putin Anton thank you thank you Sabrina. [Music].

we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you should know. today president-elect Donald Trump has. picked Scott bessent to serve as. treasury secretary bessent is a. billionaire hedge fund manager who once. supported Democrats but now endorses the. Republican agenda of cutting taxes. rolling back federal regulations and.

enacting the sweeping tariffs that Trump. has promised he'll also oversee trade. talks with China the selection came. after weeks of debate by Trump and his. advisers about who should win the most. prominent economic job in his. administration today's episode was. produced by Rob zipco ASA chetra Michael. Simon Johnson and will re. it was edited by Maria burn and Patricia.

willings with help from Michael benois. contains original music by Maran Lozano. and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley our. theme music is by Jim brunberg and Ben. Lanser of. [Music]. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm in. a Tavern see see you tomorrow.

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