A Plan to Remake the Middle East

from New York Times I'm Michael Babar. this is the. [Music]. daily. today if and when Israel and Hamas reach. a deal for a ceasefire the United States. will immediately turn to a different set. of negotiations over a grand diplomatic. bargain that it believes could rebuild. Gaza and remake the Middle East my.

colleague Michael Crowley has been. reporting on that plan and explains why. those involved in it believe they have. so little time left to get it. done it's Wednesday May. [Music]. 8th Michael I want to start with what. feels like a pretty dizzying set of. developments in this conflict over the.

past few days just walk us through them. well over the weekend there was an. intense round of. negotiations in an effort backed by the. United States to reach a ceasefire in. the Gaza War the latest ceasefire. proposal would reportedly see as many as. 33 Israeli hostages released in exchange. for potentially hundreds of Palestinian. prisoners us officials were very eager. to get this deal pressure for a. ceasefire has been building ahead of a.

threatened Israeli assault on Rafa. because Israel has been threatening a. military offensive in the southern. Palestinian city of Rafa where a huge. number of people are crowded fled the. violence to the north and now they're. packed into Rafa exposed and vulnerable. they need to be protected and the US. says it would be a humanitarian. catastrophe on top of the emergency. that's already underway. right breaking news this hour very. important breaking news an official.

Hamas Source has told the BBC that it. does accept a proposal for a ceasefire. deal in Gaza and for a few hours on. Monday it looked like there might have. been a major breakthrough when Hamas put. out a statement saying that it had. accepted a negotiating proposal Israeli. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says. the ceasefire proposal does not meet his. country's requirements but Netanyahu. says he will send a delegation of. mediators to continue those talk now the.

term but those hopes were dashed pretty. quickly when the Israelis took a look at. what Hamas was saying and said that it. was not a proposal that they had agreed. to it had been modified mhm and. overnight Israeli troops stormed into. rafo video showing tanks crashing over a. sign at the entrance of the city the. Israelis launched a partial invasion of. Rafa it says Hamas used the area to. launch a deadly attack on Israel troops.

over the weekend and they have now. secured a border crossing at the. southern end of Gaza and are conducting. targeted strikes This Is Not Yet the. full scale Invasion that President Biden. has adamantly warned Israel against. undertaking but it is an escalation by. Israel mhm so while all that drama might. suggest that these talks are in big. trouble these talks are very much still. alive and ongoing and there is still a. possibility of a ceasefire deal.

H and the reason that's so important is. not just to stop the fighting in Gaza. and relieve the suffering there but a. ceasefire also opens the door to a grand. diplomatic bargain one that involves. Israel and its Arab neighbors and the. Palestinians and would have very. far-reaching implications and what is. that grand bargain describe what you're. talking about well it's incredibly. ambitious it would reshape.

Israel's relationship with its Arab. neighbors principally Saudi Arabia but. it's important to understand that this. is a vision that has actually been. around since well before October 7th. this was a diplomatic project that. President Biden had been investing in. and negotiating actually in a very real. and tangible way long before the Hamas. attacks and the Gaza war and President. Biden was looking to build on something. that President Trump had done which was.

a series of agreements that the Trump. Administration struck in which Israel. and some of its Arab neighbors agreed to. have normal diplomatic relations for the. first time right they're called the. abrahamic cours that's right and you. know Biden doesn't like a lot of things. most things that Trump did but he. actually likes this because the idea is. that they contribute to stability and. economic integration in the Middle East. the US likes Israel having friends and. likes having a tight-knit alliance.

against Iran President Biden agrees with. the Saudis and with the Israelis that. Iran is really the top threat to. everybody here so how can you build on. this how can you expand it well the next. and biggest step would be normalizing. relations between Israel and Saudi. Arabia and the Saudis have made clear. that they want to do this and that. they're ready to do this they weren't. ready to do it in the Trump years but. Muhammad bin Salman the Crown Prince of. Saudi Arabia has made clear he wants to.

do it now mhm so this kind of triangular. deal began to take shape before October. 7th in which the US Israel and Saudi. Arabia would enter this three-way. agreement in which everyone would get. something that they wanted and just walk. through what each side gets in this. pre-october 7th version of these. negotiations so for Israel you get. normalized ties with its most important. Arab neighbor and and really the country. that sets the tone for the whole mus. Muslim World which is Saudi Arabia of.

course it makes Israel feel safer and. more secure again it helps to build this. alliance against Iran which Israel. considers its greatest threat and it. comes with benefits like economic ties. and travel and tourism and prime. minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been. very open at least before October 7th. that this was His Highest diplomatic and. foreign policy. priority for the Saudis the rationale is. similar when it comes to Israel they.

think that it will bring stability they. like having a more explicitly close Ally. against Iran there are economic and. cultural benefits Saudi Arabia is. opening itself up in general encouraging. more. tourism but I think that what's most. important to the Crown Prince Muhammad. bin Salman is what he can get from the. United States and what he has been. asking for are a couple of essential. things one is a security agreement whose. details have always been a little bit. vague but I think come down to Reliable.

arms supplies from the United States. that are not going to be cut off or. paused on a whim as he felt happened. when President Biden stopped arms. deliveries in 2021 because of how Saudi. was conducting its war in Yemen the. Saudis were Furious about that Saudi. Arabia also wants to start a domestic. nuclear power program they are planning. for a very long-term future possibly a. post oil future and they need help. getting a nuclear program off the ground. and they want that from the US and they. want that from the US.

now those are big asks from the US but. from the perspective of President Biden. there are some really enticing things. about this possible agreement one is. that it will hopefully produce more. stability in the region again the US. likes having a tight-knit alliance. against Iran the US also wants to have a. strong relationship with Saudi Arabia. You know despite the anger at Muhammad. bin Salman over the murder of the Saudi. dissident Jamal kogi the Biden.

Administration recognizes that given the. Saudis control over global oil. production and their strategic. importance in the Middle East they need. to have a good relationship with them. and the Administration has been worried. about the influence of China in the. region and with the Saudis in particular. so this is an opportunity for the US to. draw the Saudis closer whatever our. moral qualms might be about bin Salman. and the Saudi government.

this is an opportunity to bring the. Saudis closer which is something the. Biden Administration sees as a Strategic. Benefit all three of these countries big. desperate countries that normally don't. see eye to eye this was a winwin win on. a military. economic and strategic front that's. right but there was one important actor. in the region that did not see itself as. winning and that was the Palestinians. mhm first it's important to understand.

that the Palestinians have always. expected that the Arab countries in the. Middle East would insist that Israel. recognize a Palestinian State before. those countries were willing to. essentially make total peace and have. normal relations with Israel mhm so when. the Abraham Accords happened in the. Trump Administration the Palestinians. felt like they'd been thrown under the. bus because the Abraham Accords gave. them virtually. nothing but the Palestinians did still. hold out hope that Saudi Arabia would be.

their Savior and for years Saudi Arabia. has said that Israel must give the. Palestinians a state if there's going to. be a normal relationship between Israel. and Saudi. Arabia now the Palestinians see the. Saudis in discussions with the US and. Israel about a normalization. agreement and there appears to be very. little on offer for the Palestinians and. they are feeling like they're going to. be left out in the cold here right and. in the minds of the Palestinians having. already been essentially sold out by all. their other Arab neighbors the prospect.

that Saudi Arabia of all countries the. most important Muslim Arab country in. the region would sell them out had to be. extremely painful it was a nightmare. scenario for them and in the minds of. many analysts and US. officials this was a factor one of many. in hamas's decision to Stage the October. 7th attacks mhm. Hamas like other Palestinian leaders was. seeing the prospect. that the Middle East was moving on and.

essentially in their view giving up on. the Palestinian cause and that Israel. would be able to have friendly normal. relations with Arab countries around the. region and that it could continue with. Hardline policies toward the. Palestinians and a refusal as prime. minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said. publicly to accept a Palestinian state. right so Michael once Hamas carries out.

the October 7th attacks in an effort to. destroy a status quo that it thinks is. leaving them less and less relevant more. and more hopeless including potentially. this prospect that Saudi Arabia is going. to normalize relations with Israel what. happens to these pre-october 7th. negotiations between the US Saudi Arabia. and Israel well I think there was a snap. assumption that these talks were dead. and buried that they couldn't possibly.

survive a cataclysm like this right but. then something surprising happened it. became clear that all the parties were. still determined to pull off the. normalization and most surprisingly of. all perhaps was the continued eagerness. of Saudi Arabia which publicly was. professing outrage over the Israeli. response to the Hamas attacks but. privately was still very much engaged in. these conversations and trying to move.

them forward mhm and in fact what has. happened is that the scope of this. effort has grown substantially October. 7th didn't kill these talks it actually. made them bigger more complicated and. some people would argue more important. than. [Music]. ever we'll be right back.

Michael walk us through what exactly. happens to these three-way. negotiations after October 7th that ends. up making them as you just said more. complicated and more important than ever. well it's more important than ever. because of the incredible need in Gaza. and it's going to take a deal like this. and the approval of Saudi Arabia to. unlock the kind of massive. reconstruction project required to. essentially rebuild Gaza from the reubel.

Saudi Arabia and its Arab friends are. also going to be instrumental in. figuring out how Gaza is governed and. they might even provide troops to help. secure it none of those things are going. to happen without a deal like this. fascinating but this is all much more. complicated now because the price for a. deal like this has gone up and by Price. you mean what Israel would have to give. up from Saudi Arabia's perspective you. have an Arab population that is furious.

at Israel it now feels like a really. hard time to do a normalization deal. with the Israelis it was never going to. be easy MH but this is about as bad a. time to do it as there has been in a. generation at. least and I think that President Biden. and the people around him understand. that the status quo between Israel and. the Palestinians is intolerable and it. is going to lead to chaos and violence. indefinitely so now you have have two of. the three parties to this agreement the.

Saudis and the Americans basically. asking a new price after October 7th MH. and saying to the Israelis if we're. going to do this deal it has to not only. do something for the Palestinians it has. to do something really big you have to. commit to the creation of a Palestinian. State now I'll be specific and say that. what you hear the Secretary of State. Anthony blankin say is that the. agreement has to include an IR versible. time bound path to a Palestinian State.

we don't know exactly what that looks. like but it's some kind of a firm. commitment the likes of which the world. and certainly the Israelis have not made. before something that was very much not. present in the pre-october 7th vision of. this negotiation so much so that as we. just talked about the Palestinians were. left feeling completely out in the cold. and Furious at it that's right there was. no sign that people people were thinking. that ambitiously about the Palestinians.

in this deal before October 7th and the. Palestinians certainly felt like they. weren't going to get much out of it and. that has completely changed. [Music]. now so Michael once this big new. dimension after October 7th which is the. insistence by Saudi Arabia and the US. that there be a Palestinian state or a. path to a Palestinian State what is the. reaction specifically from Israel which.

is of course the third major party to. this entire conversation well Israel or. at least its political leadership hates. it you know this is just an extremely. tough cell in Israel it would have been. a tough sell before October 7th it's. even harder now prime minister Benjamin. Netanyahu is completely unrepentantly. open and saying that there's not going. to be a Palestinian State on his watch. he won't accept it he says that it's a.

strategic risk to his country he says. that it would in effect reward Hamas his. argument is that terrorism has forced a. conversation about statehood onto the. table that wasn't there before October. 7th sure it's always in the background. it's a perennial issue in global Affairs. but it was not something certainly that. the US and Israel's Arab neighbors were. actively pushing Netanyahu also has you. know he governs with the support of very. right-wing members members of a. political Coalition that he has cobbled.

together and that Coalition is quite. likely to fall apart if he does embrace. a Palestinian state or a path to a. Palestinian State now he might be able. to Cobble together some sort of. alternative but it creates a political. crisis for him and finally you know I. think in any conversation about Israel. it's worth bearing in mind something you. hear from senior us officials these days. which is that although there is often. finger pointing at Netanyahu and a.

desire to blame Netanyahu as this. obstructionist who won't agree to. Deals what they say is Netanyahu is. largely reflecting his population and. the political establishment of his. country not just the right-wingers in. his Coalition who are clearly extremist. but actually the prevailing views of the. Israeli public and the Israeli public. and their political leaders across the. Spectrum right now with with few. exceptions are not interested in talking. about a Palestinian State when there are.

still dozens and dozens of Israeli. hostages in tunnels beneath Gaza so it. very much looks like this giant. agreement that once seemed doable before. October 7th might be more important to. everyone involved than ever given that. it's a plan for rebuilding Gaza and. potentially preventing future October. 7th from happening but because of this. higher price that Israel would have to. pay which is the acceptance of a. Palestinian state it seems from.

everything you're saying that this is. more and more Out Of Reach than ever. before and hard to imagine happening in. the immediate future so if the people. negotiating it are being honest Michael. are they ready to acknowledge that it. doesn't look like this is going to. happen well not quite yet as time goes. by they certainly say it's getting. harder and harder but they're still. trying they still think there's a chance. but both the Saudis and the Biden. Administration understand that there's. very little time left to do this well.

what do you mean there's very little. time left it would seem like time might. benefit this negotiation in that it. might give Israel distance from October. 7th to think potentially differently. about a Palestinian State potentially. but Saudi Arabia wants to get this deal. done in the bay administration because. Muhammad bin Salman has concluded this. has to be done under a Democratic. president why because Democrats in. Congress are going to be very Rel. to approve a security agreement between.

the United States and Saudi. Arabia it's important to understand that. if there is a security agreement that's. something Congress is going to have to. approve and you're just not going to get. enough Democrats in Congress to support. a deal with Saudi Arabia who a lot of. Democrats don't like to begin with. because they see them as human rights. abusers but if a Democratic president is. asking them to do it they're much more. likely to go along right so Saudi Arabia. fears that if Biden loses and Trump is. president that those same Democrats.

would bulk at this deal in a way that. they wouldn't if it were being. negotiated under President Biden exactly. now from President Biden's perspective. politically think about a president. who's running for re-election who is. presiding right now over chaos in the. Middle East who doesn't seem to have. good answers for the Israeli Palestinian. question this is an opportunity for. President Biden to deliver what could be. at least what he would present as a. diplomatic Master stroke that does.

multiple things at once including. creating a new pathway for Israel and. the Palestinians to coexist to break. through the Log Jam Even as he's also. improving Israel's relations with Saudi. Arabia so Biden and the Crown Prince. hope that they can. somehow persuade BB Netanyahu that in. spite of all the reasons that he thinks. this is a terrible idea that this is a. bet worth taking on Israel's and the.

Region's long-term security and future. that's right now no one has explained. very clearly exactly how this is going. to work and it's probably going to. require Artful. diplomacy possibly even a scenario where. the Israelis would agree to something. that maybe means one thing to them and. means something else to other people but. Biden officials refuse to say that it's. hopeless and they refuse to essentially. take. netanyahu's preliminary note for an. answer and they still see some way that.

they can thread this incredibly narrow. needle Michael I'm curious about a. constituency that we haven't been. talking about because they're not at the. table in these discussions that we are. talking about here and that would be. Hamas how does Hamas feel about the. prospect of such a deal like this ever. taking shape do they see it as any kind. of a victory and Vindication for what. they did on October 7th so it's hard to. know exactly what M's leadership is. thinking I think they can feel two.

things I think they can feel on the one. hand that they have established. themselves as the champions of the. Palestinian people who struck a blow. against Israel and against a diplomatic. process that was potentially going to. leave the Palestinians out in the cold. MH at the same time Hamas has no. interest in the kind of two-state. solution that the US is trying to. promote they think Israel should be. destroyed they think the inan State. should cover the entire geography of.

what is now Israel and they want to lead. a state like that and that's not. something that the US Saudi Arabia or. anyone else is going to tolerate so what. Hamas wants is to fight to be the leader. of the Palestinian people and to destroy. Israel and they're not interested in any. sort of a peace process or statehood. process it seems very clear from. everything you've said here that neither. Israel nor Hamas is ready to have the. conversation about a grand bargain. diplomatic program and I wonder if that.

inevitably has any bearing on the. ceasefire negotiations that are going on. right now between the two of them that. are supposed to bring this conflict to. some sort of an end even if it's just. temporary because if as you said Michael. a ceasefire opens the door to this. larger diplomatic solution and these two. players don't necessarily want want that. larger diplomatic solution doesn't that.

inevitably impact their enthusiasm for. even reaching a. ceasefire well it certainly doesn't help. you know this is such a hellish problem. and of course you first have the. question of whether Israel and Hamas can. make a deal on these immediate issues. including the hostages Palestinian. prisoners what the Israeli military is. going to do how long a SE fire might. last right but on top of that you have. these much bigger diplomatic questions. that are looming over them and it's not. clear that either side is ready to turn.

and face those bigger. questions so while for the Biden. Administration and for Saudi Arabia this. is a way out of this crisis these larger. diplomatic Solutions it's not clear that. it's a conversation that the two parties. that are actually at War here are. prepared to start. having well Michael thank you very much. we appreciate it thank you.

[Music]. on Tuesday afternoon under intense. pressure from the US delegations from. Israel and Hamas arrived in Cairo to. resume negotiations over a potential. ceasefire but in a statement Israel's. prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu made. clear that even with the talks underway. his government would quote continue to w. AG war against.

[Music]. Hamas we'll be right. back here's what else you need to know. to day in a dramatic day of testimony. stor Nory Daniels offered explicit.

details about an alleged sexual. encounter with Donald Trump that. ultimately led to the hush money payment. at the center of his trial Daniels. testified that Trump answered the door. in pajamas that he told her not to worry. that he was married and that he did not. use a condom when they had sex that. prompted lawyers for Trump to seek a. mistrial based on what they called. prejudice judicial testimony but the.

judge in the case rejected that. request and we've seen a ferocious surge. of anti-Semitism in America and around. the world in a speech on Tuesday. honoring victims of the Holocaust. President Biden condemned what he said. was the alarming rise of anti-Semitism. in the United States after the October. 7th attacks on Israel and he expressed. worry that too many Americans for. already forgetting the horrors of that.

attack to the Jewish Community I want. you to. know I see your fear your hurt and your. pain let me reassure you as your. president you're not alone you. belong you always have and you always. will today's episode was produced by. Nina Feldman Claire tennis ketter and. Ricky nety it was edited by Liz o balen.

contains original music by Maran Lozano. Alicia beup and Dan Powell and was. engineered by Alysa Moxley our theme. music is by Jim runber and Ben Lark of. wonderly that's it for the daily I'm. Michael Babar see you tomorrow. [Music].