A New Threat: Surprise Hurricanes

from New York Times I'm Michael babo. this is a. [Music]. daily. today hurricane Otis which killed more. than two dozen people in southern Mexico. this week has revealed a new kind of. threat that meteorologists fear will. become more and more common a severe. hurricane that arrives with SH.

shockingly little warning or time to. prepare my colleague Judson Jones. explains it's Friday October. [Music]. 27th Judson we're coming to you because. you are a meteorologist on the staff of. the times which is a pretty new. development I have to think because I. didn't actually know that the time times.

had a meteorologist on our. staff so I came on about a year ago last. Halloween and it all came about because. the times wanted to develop an extreme. weather team we often say extreme. weather is the fingerprint of climate. change so a lot of times it's the. evidence that the world is changing and. so by bringing on a meteorologist and a. data journalism team my team is.

responsible for diving into the data of. these extremes got it so the reality. that climate change and extreme weather. are deeply. interwoven is why you are at the Times. absolutely well let's turn to the reason. we're talking to you right now which is. an extreme weather event that happened. just a couple of days ago hurricane Otis. and why it felt so different to those of. us watching it than most hurricanes what. made Otis so.

remarkable and scary was that it rapidly. intensified from a tropical storm. Tuesday morning to a category 5. Hurricane by. Nightfall basically went from your. run-of-the-mill storm to the most. terrifying powerful destructive kind of. hurricane in less than 24 hours yeah I. mean it it was The Ultimate Nightmare. scenario so tell us the full story of. Otis from the beginning from your.

perspective as somebody watching it well. in full. transparency on Wednesday morning I woke. up and went what happened like normally. we have a lot of leadup time to. hurricanes right like we're tracking. them across the Atlantic Ocean we're. tracking them across the Pacific Ocean. you can see them coming it gives the. forecast models time to initialize and. give different results over you know a.

couple days so there's this chance to. kind of understand that the storm is. coming. here this storm Otis is new to the scene. in the Eastern Pacific this is a. tropical storm formed on Sunday it was. 40 mph Otis is pushing its way towards. Acapulco so we're going to see some very. heavy rain around the southwest of. Mexico on Monday it was 50 mph the. forecast models weren't really showing.

it intensifying at all tropical storm. Otis continues to spin in the Eastern. Pacific winds right now. 45 Tuesday morning it was still a. tropical storm so around 50. mph but by midday it was 80 M hour it. was a category one hurricane strength it. started to look even more like a. hurricane on satellite which kind of. gives an indication that it's. intensifying an ey started to form now.

let's talk about this one in the Pacific. this thing just jumped up just to a. category 3 in this and then that. afternoon hurricane Hunters flew through. the eye twice and found that it was. actually a category 4 strength hurricane. now we go to a potentially dangerous. situation developing in Mexico a rapidly. intensifying hurricane is making its way. toward the resort community of aapco and. then later that night all of a sudden it. was 16 5 mph the strongest storm that.

has ever hit the West Coast of. Mexico so every hour or every two hours. this thing is becoming like an entire. order of magnitude bigger and that's. just not you're saying normal you know. it was one of the fastest strengthening. storms we've ever experienced it it is. beyond the definition of rapid.

intensification H the typical definition. is 35 mph in 24 hours this one went. above 100 miles per hour in 24 hours. like it jumped from a tropical storm to. a category 5 I mean it's just unheard of. it's remarkable in meteorology terms. okay so when this very. anomalously intensifying storm arrives. on the western coast of Mexico as a.

category 5 storm describe for us what. happens given the fact that from. everything you're saying there hasn't. been very much time at all to. prepare the winds came in. howling I mean they were ripping off. Palm leaves and you can see it in video. before all the power cut. off then all of a sudden you know these. these tourists and the residents they're. nearly a million people live in the city.

had broken shattered. Windows the sides of buildings were. starting to rip off and you know you can. see the rain coming into people's. bedrooms you know where they're trying. to sleep I mean this came. in normally when people would be. sleeping right I think I remember 1:00. am local time or. so yeah I mean it you just imagine like.

you think you're just going to sleep. through the storm and then all of a. sudden the windows are just being. shattered and by the time the sun came. up you know cell towers were down. internet was down it was really. difficult to find out what was going on. on the ground but we know now that the. damage was was extensive 27 people have.

died and more are still missing which. really would seem to highlight the. problem of Rapid intensification you. don't have time to evacuate people and. therefore more people die yeah in this. Modern Age where you expect forecast and. people to be able to evacuate we never. want to see anyone die in the storms as. meteorologist like that's why we. forecast it's to save lives and so it. just goes back to the ferociousness of.

the storm just how unusual is Hurricane. Otis given everything you've just. described which makes it feel very. unusual not as unusual as we. hope I'm afraid that we're going to see. this happen more frequently you know. studies are showing that rapid. intensification is happening more often.

I think that's the future we need to. prepare. [Music]. for we'll be right. back Json what is the evidence that. storms like Otis that intensify in what. feels like lightning speed with so. little warning are now becoming more.

common and are not as unusual as you. would like them to be you know it's one. of the things that you can actually. attribute to climate change a little bit. like there are studies that have shown. that typhoons and Cyclones which are. just hurricanes and another ocean Basin. that they're rapidly intensifying more. frequently even a study just a couple. weeks ago that focused specifically on.

hurricanes in the Atlantic showed that. in a warming World rapid intensification. is twice as likely to. happen so essentially the thing that. tells us that this is becoming more. common is people studying old storms and. saying there's no denying this reality. yeah I mean even the storms I've covered. over the last decade kind of used to. feel like something we would. occasionally say like storm is going to.

rapidly intensify or that storm just. rapidly intensified and now it almost. feels like every storm we cover it's. just another indication right and I want. you to just mechanically explain why. this intensification is happening. clearly the main driving factor is. warming water temperatures but I want. you to just remind us how that works and. how a warmer body of water me. that a small storm is becoming a massive.

destructive storm so quickly well to. have a hurricane you need to have warm. water it has to be 80° F or higher to. really give it the energy that it needs. right so think of a hurricane as like an. engine and that energy that warm water. is the fuel that's fueling the. hurricane typically you know these.

storms if they sit over an ocean in an. area for a long period of time they. continue to pull that energy up into the. hurricane but down below colder water. starts upwelling so that hurricane is. pulling colder water that's replacing. that warm water but what we're seeing in. this warming world is that it's not just. the ocean surface temperatures that are. warming the column of water is warming.

so instead of pulling colder water up. into the hurricane it's upwelling warmer. water that is again above 80° which. gives more energy to the storm so. instead of a hurricane just kind of. petering out because it's lost that fuel. instead it's pulling more energy into. that. storm that's fascinating so when there's. more and more fuel in the ocean for the.

hurricane the chances of it speeding up. become higher and higher the chances of. it petering out become smaller and. smaller yeah that's exactly right so if. you're a meteorologist which you are how. does this new reality of there being so. much warm water fuel for these storms to. intensify how does that change your role. in warning people about these dangerous. storms it's almost like we turned back.

the clock a little bit on forecasting. you know we've come a long way in. meteorology right like if you think back. to the great Galveston hurricane in 1900. they didn't have warning and then the. satellite era came and all of a sudden. we could see these storms in the. Atlantic and we knew that they were. going to move towards the US so we've. constantly been improving forecast. models have even gotten better you know. we have ability to see a storm out in.

the Atlantic and say hey that may hit. the US in two. weeks however when you have this rapid. intensification equation right like this. this problem that kind of inserts itself. it kind of changes the game right kind. of undermines all that technology and. says to it you're not up to the task. yeah and I mean I think scientists are. quickly trying to. develop better models to predict this.

intensity because it is a scary thing I. mean right we want to warn people and it. helps to be able to see in the future. well what would help you adjust to this. pretty scary new reality about faster. intensifying storms what would help you. be able to predict that Otis was going. to do what It ultimately did are there. some straightforward easy solutions to.

that I think one thing is better. observations I think we're getting in an. age where we're launching weather. satellites all over the place and that's. helping improve our forecast like having. a better understanding of just how. intense the storm is ahead of time is. Key but even in this situation it took a. hurricane hunter flying through the. storm to really know how intense it was. so I think that one thing right but the.

other thing is the forecast like these. supercomputers that are trying to. predict the future we need to continue. to develop that science for example if. we had more sensors in the Pacific Ocean. we we could get better data and. understand what is actually coming from. the West to the east or from the East to. the West depending on what part of the. Pacific Ocean you're in like if we get. more data. the forecasts are going to get better.

okay but even if we get more sensors in. the Pacific Ocean and even if we get. better forecasts and better warnings on. these more quickly intensifying storms. that doesn't solve the problem of. helping people on land to prepare when. by definition they just have less and. less time given the warming water so how. are we supposed to solve for that I mean. the straightforward. answer would seem to be we need to cut. back on emissions which. is clearly a root cause of these warming.

temperatures creating these nightmare. scenarios but even if we did that that. would take time so what do we do now if. you live in a Coastal Community and. you're getting less and less time to. prepare for a hurricane what can be done. a lot of it ends up coming down to. mitigation it comes down to as simple as. building materials right like there are. things called hurricane ties that you. can get for a few bucks to hold down. your roof to the rest of the framework. of your house so the roof doesn't blow.

off there are things that can be done to. help mitigate that disaster another. thing is you know not building in flood. planes we're seeing a lot more of that. but then it's also having shelters. readily available that are hurricane. proof or tornado proof like there are. things that cities and towns and. countries can do to help mitigate the. disaster. by giving people options if they're in.

the path of a major storm right options. that increasingly perhaps need to. acknowledge that there might not be time. to get in your car and drive for hours. and hours but are contingency plans that. perhaps recognize that you may end up. needing to stay in your community when. one of these storms very rapidly becomes. something super. dangerous. absolutely I'm curious just think about. the fact that you are a.

meteorologist if this situation we're. describing makes you feel an immense. amount of pressure to get things rer. than ever before I mean there's always. lots of carping when a meteorologist. gets something wrong you told us to. worry about a storm it passed us we're. annoyed with you but the burden now. feels even more intense because if. you're wrong. the amount of time the room for error is.

vanishingly small and the danger is so. much greater and that puts you in a very. tricky position yeah I mean. meteorologists have always gotten it. wrong you know that's why it's a joke. because it's it's a science. meteorologist what they're doing is. creating a hypothesis so when they're. forecasting when a meteorologist like. myself is giving you a forecast they're. giving their best educated guest based.

off of everything that's happening. around so as I write these stories and. am trying to forecast these bigger. storms being right is not. [Music]. easy I feel responsible. for what people may think by reading. those words like should they evacuate. should they not evacuate is this storm. actually going to be a big deal and I.

carry a lot of that weight on my. shoulders and in this world where storms. can. intensify and kind of come out of. nowhere it's not the kind of storm I. like to wake up to the next morning and. go oh I should have covered this two. days ago so people had more warning. right I want to be able to warn people 3. or 4 days in advance of a major. hurricane. and when they rapidly intensify next to.

a city with nearly a million people that. is the worst. [Music]. nightmare OHS thank you very much we. really appreciate it thanks for having. me. [Music]. Michael we'll be right.

[Music]. back here's what else you need to know. today a massive Manhunt entered its. second day in Maine where police were. searching for the gunman who killed at. least 18 people at a restaurant and. bowling alley in America's deadliest. shooting of the year police described. the suspect as a Sergeant First Class in.

the Army Reserve where his superiors. became alarmed over statements he had. made over the summer threatening his own. unit all M people are sharing in the. sorrow of the families who lost loved. ones last. night loved ones normal people who were. killed or injured while unwinding from a. day of work or while spending time with. their family and friends socializing. during a news conference Main's Governor.

Janet Mills called the shooting a dark. day for the state and for the city where. it occurred I know that the people of. Leon are enduring immeasurable. pain I wish I could take that pain off. your hearts off your shoulders but I. promise you this we will all help you. carry that. grief and on Thursday the is military. said it had briefly sent tanks into.

Northern Gaza in preparation for its. next stage of fighting which could. involve a ground invasion in Gaza the. Hamas run Health Ministry said that the. number of Palestinians killed by Israeli. air strikes has surpassed 7,000 people. but those numbers cannot be. independently verified and have been. questioned by President Biden in. response Hamas released what it said. were the names of.

6,747 people who had. [Music]. died today's episode was produced by. Olivia Nat Eric krupy Clare tennis and. Lindsay Garrison it was edited by Devin. Taylor and Liz oalen fact checked by. Susan Lee contains original music by. Marian Lozano Alicia ba and Pat Kuser. and was engineered by Chris Wood our.

theme music is by Jim brunberg and Ben. lanber of. [Music]. wonderly the daily is made by Rachel. quer Lindsay Garrison Clare tennis. ketter Paige cowt Michael Simon Johnson. Brad fiser Chris Wood Jessica Chung. Stella tan Alexander Lee young Lisa Chow. Eric krupky Mark George Luke V blug MJ. Davis Lynn Dan Powell Sydney Harper.

Michael benois Liz oalen AA chv relle. Banja Diana win Maran Lozano Corey Shel. Rob zipco Alicia baitu muj zadii. Patricia willins Rowan nisto Jody Becker. Ricky nety John Ketchum Nina Feldman. will Reed Carlos PRI Ben Calhoun Susan. Lee Lexi di Mary Wilson Alex Stern Dan.

frell Sophia lman Shannon Lynn Diane. Wong Devin Taylor Alysa Moxley summer. tamod Olivia Nat Daniel Ramirez and. Brendan clink Berg special thanks to. Lisa Tobin Sam dolnick Paula Schuman. Lissa Anderson Julia Simon Sophia Milan. mahima chablani Elizabeth Davis Moore. Jeffrey Miranda renan burelli Maddie.

masello Isabella Anderson and Nina. lassam that's it for the daily I'm. Michael borro see you on. Monday.