A New Covid Shot for a New Covid Era

from The New York Times I'm Michael. balvaro this is a daily. [Music]. on Tuesday afternoon the U.S government. recommended that almost every American. begin taking a new annual vaccine for. covet a milestone in the nation's. three-year-long battle against the virus. I spoke with my colleague a poorvo. mondaville about why the era of booster.

shots is now over. and how exactly we're supposed to. navigate this latest uptick in. infections in what to many feels like a. post-covered world. [Music]. it's Wednesday September 13th. approval we're talking to you just about. an hour after the Centers for Disease. Control and prevention did something.

they don't do all that much of these. days which is to publicly weigh in on. covid all these many months after. telling us that covet is no longer a. national emergency so tell us exactly. what the CDC just did. what they did today is they've sort of. reframed how we think about the. coronavirus vaccine we used to have all. these boosters and doses to keep track. of and they recommended a single shot. that everyone should get the idea is.

that you're going to continue to get. covered vaccines but you should really. think about this like the flu vaccine. you're going to get one dose every fall. and that's going to be for everybody not. this many doses for this group and that. many doses for the other group in this. very confusing melange they had before. it was a confusing launch that's not. just me thinking that it was confusing. to me too and I write about this stuff I. think everybody had trouble figuring out. how many doses they'd had and what they. were due for next and whether they.

really needed it and what the cost. benefit analysis were and so today what. we have is a much more simple model. here's this vaccine that we're going to. have every year like we do with the flu. vaccine it'll now be a part of our. regular Healthcare and everyone should. go get it right it will become part of. the ritual of getting a vaccine and I. have to imagine that a big reason why. the CDC is pushing this is not just. because the previous regime was. confusing but because the previous. system wasn't really getting people to.

take a vaccine it's a bit of both I. think not many people got the last. booster you know Pfizer actually thought. something like 100 million doses of the. booster would be administered this year. just as an example and actually only. about 12 million doses were in the first. six months of the year that's a tiny. fraction it's a tiny fraction and gives. you a sense of how few people really. were interested in getting the vaccine. the numbers were the best for people who. really need it you know older adults. really did go out and get it about half. got it but if you think about adults as.

a whole fewer than one in five Americans. got it and that's just not a very high. number wow so what should we know about. this new vaccine this new annual covid. shot and how it differs from pass shots. the ones that we have. talked about thought of as boosters. for a while we were getting the vaccine. that was intended to protect us from the. original version of the virus that came. through in early 2020 and we got several.

doses of that and then the most recent. vaccine that we all got or at least I. got the FDA tried to sort of hedge their. bets by having. part of that but also part of the. Omicron variant and so they were trying. to sort of protect us against both and. you know before we were sort of reacted. we had wave after wave and we were just. rolling out the vaccine as needed and. this was much more intentional you know. in June the FDA decided okay this is. what we're going to do we're going to. pick the variant that is the most.

dominant and we're going to design the. vaccine to protect us from that variant. so it was all a bit less rushed and. frantic than it used to be. got it so it's a little bit more. anticipatory it is and this is a very. familiar process for our federal health. officials they know how to do this. because they do this every year for the. flu vaccine except for the flu they pick. that variant in in the spring after. they've seen what the flu did in the. southern hemisphere. sometimes that vaccine ends up being a.

good match for what we actually see in. the fall sometimes it's not but usually. even when it's not a great match you end. up getting sick for fewer days you may. not get quite as sick and so it's still. usually worth getting it and that's I. think the hope for the covet vaccine too. is that even if they pick a variant in. June and Everything Changes by the Fall. you'd still get some amount of. protection from getting the vaccine and. it would be better than nothing. right and you kind of just hinted at. this but I'm assuming nothing changes. here with the function of a coveted.

vaccine the idea is that the vaccine. won't necessarily prevent you from. getting coveted its design above all to. make a covid infection milder that's. absolutely right I think many of the. vaccines that we've had in the past few. years have not been great at preventing. infections I think now we should really. just expect these vaccines to protect us. from ending up in the hospital we're. getting really seriously sick or dying. from it okay so. now I want to better understand.

what the CDC has said about who should. get this vaccine how broad or narrow. their guidance is for age groups. populations and so on. it's actually really simple now they. said everybody who's older than six. months should get at least one dose of. this vaccine that's about as broad as a. recommendation can possibly be I'm. curious how that compares with the. breadth of the government's. recommendation for the flu vaccine it's.

exactly the same as for the flu vaccine. and I think that's another hope that by. keeping it the same as the flu it will. make things very simple for people to. remember and understand. right okay given these very broad. recommendations I want to ask a few. logistical questions about this new. vaccine now that it's supposed to be an. annual shot when exactly on the calendar. are people supposed to get this vaccine. what's the specific window of time.

you should get it when you're actually. likely to get it whenever it's most. convenient for you is what I hear from. the experts because they're so worried. that if you try to give a very specific. window people will just not go if you. can go multiple times they recommend. that you get the coveted shot when covet. is looking like a problem and you get. the flu shot sometime in October because. flu usually Peaks much later than covid. got it but if you don't think you're. gonna actually get to the clinic. multiple times then you should get both. as soon as you can whenever you have.

time I want to talk about the reality. that these recommendations from the CDC. arrive at a moment in our relationship. with covid that feels worth. contextualizing which is that despite. the government telling us that the. danger has really passed cases are. actually Rising right now I just had to. deal with an infection in my own family. several people on The Daily team have. recently been infected I should say not. by me. and yet our access to hard data on case.

numbers is very different than it's been. in the past so it's a strange time to. try to wrap your head around things so. give us the official lay of the land. it is a confusing time because before it. was very clear that covet was dangerous. there were Rising cases there were. rising hospitalizations and debts we. knew exactly where we stood and where. the cases were going up now as you. pointed out we don't actually have great. data. the CDC is not reporting numbers of.

infections anymore so we don't have a. great idea of whether and how much cases. are going up we kind of have a sense. that they're going up because we see it. in things like Wastewater and as you. said you hear about people around you. getting sick but we don't know the exact. numbers. and when you say Wastewater just to be. clear this is the idea that sewage is. tested periodically by municipalities. and that's how local governments can. often determine that covid seems to have. been growing in a particular place right.

and it's not a very quantitative way it. doesn't give you a really clear idea of. how much virus there is but you get a. general sense you can see that it's. going up you can see that maybe it's. about the same level as it was last year. at some time but if they're not exact. numbers and so we just don't really have. a clear picture of cases we have better. data for hospitalizations and deaths and. we can see from that that those are. going up they've been going up since. July. but the actual numbers are a lot lower. than they were in previous years so.

hospitalizations are about half the. number they were at the same period last. year and one-fifth the number in 2021. and that's also you know there are debts. there are 600 or so debts every week. which is not nothing but they are lower. a lot lower than they were in August. 2022 when there were 3 000 people per. week dying and 14 000 per week in August. 2021. so that is a risk level that is. significantly lower than in the past I.

mean 14 000 deaths a week versus 600 per. week is I think something like 23 times. less lethality that's meaningful that is. Meaningful but when you compare it to. something like the flu it's still worse. than the flu it's just a lot better than. it was in the really horrific Delta. period so we've come a long way but. covet is still a pretty significant. threat and it's still among the leading. causes of death in the country and it's. worse than flu which we take seriously.

every year. right what is the annual death rate from. the flu compared to what based on the. numbers we expect this year to be the. death rate from coded. so that's from fluvary a lot based on. how bad the strain is in any given year. but there was just a modeling estimate. for kovid that said even if everybody. goes out and gets the vaccine and the. variant is really sensitive to the. vaccine and you know we respond very.

well we could still see something like. 46 000 debts from covid and that's a. very bad flu year and let's not forget. there's also respiratory Sensational. virus which is a third respiratory. threat especially for older people and. kids right better known as RSV. right RSV that's the third virus that we. had to deal with last year remember. there was the triple democ and we had. people in hospitals for months and. months because there was covet and there. was flu and then there was RSV there. were all these things circulating right.

and you know not everybody May worry. about those things a lot of people don't. have to worry about RSV it's really a. risk for older people and kids and a lot. of young people probably don't think. very much about the flu or get the flu. vaccine. but covet is a little bit different. we're just learning that if you get. infected with the coronavirus you don't. even have to get very sick you could. still have a lot of long-term health. problems in a long covid long-term. damage on the heart for example so it's. not just like the flu.

and I understand that that's a bit of a. confusing Paradox the government is. telling us go get the vaccine but other. than that no it's not really a problem. there's no data for us to make our. decisions. and yet we're somehow supposed to try to. figure out how to help ourselves how to. protect ourselves and so we all have to. come up with our own ways of figuring. out whether to socialize whether to go. out or not whether to tell people we're. sick or not all these questions that we. have and what we are willing to live.

with. foreign. [Music]. [Music]. I want to spend some time now talking. about how we are supposed to navigate. this period of covid not just the. vaccines which we've been talking about. but all of it and I want to start with a.

pretty simple question around masks in. my experience very few people are. regularly masking right now that just. seems like a given I am going to confess. I don't carry a mask around with me a. number of people I know don't either but. I don't want covet again so how should I. how should many people like me think. about what may end up being the rare. times that we might want to consider. putting a mask back on this is a tough. one because before we used to be able to. look at case numbers and decide okay the.

numbers are going up so I'm going to put. on a mask now. we're having to make those decisions. based on what we're hearing around us. there are a lot of people who seem to be. getting sick that number of. hospitalizations is going up. and then you start to make decisions. about specific circumstances I I totally. agree I don't see the average person. returning to any kind of full-time. masking but if you know you're going to. be in a crowded indoor space that's. usually a good place to wear a mask you. know a subway train or a really crowded. bathroom you know I when I travel I.

don't really worry so much about taking. my mask off on the plane because. airplanes are great but airport. bathrooms no I think I will put a mask. there or really any bathroom. um and any you know crowded indoor space. where you think people might be sick. like the pharmacy or the hospital where. you know people are coming in who are. infected coming to pick up their meds or. just see the doctor so it really does. have to be this sort of circumstance by. circumstance Case by case basis if. you're not okay wearing a mask most of.

the time hmm it's interesting the. pharmacy now that you're mentioning it. seems incredibly obvious sick people go. to pharmacies to get drugs or to get. over-the-counter medicine and it's a. very logical place to wear a mask. especially if you're going to be. standing in line to get drugs with other. people for a long period of time. and that's the key thing there standing. in line right you're spending a lot of. time around those sick people and it's. the same if you go to an ER and there. are a lot of sick people waiting in the. emergency room you probably want to put. on a mask if you're just going in and. out quickly it may not be as important.

and of course if you live with somebody. who is immunocompromised then you're. probably taking more precautions anyway. right that's a different calculation. okay so on to testing in this moment as. you know because I know you live in the. New York Region a lot of those pop-up. rapid testing sites they're gone in my. neighborhood a bunch of them seem to. have gone out of business closed shop. insurance companies cover less testing. now than they did in the past so a lot. of us are left with at-home tests made.

by various companies how good are those. at-home tests right now at correctly. identifying an infection they're decent. you know they all still detect the new. variants that are around but a lot. depends on who's doing the test and how. carefully they do them. I think the best way to make sure that. you are positive or not is to do more. than one test you know if you test on. consecutive days and you turn out to be. negative then it's more trustworthy than. if you just did it once but you're right. that there aren't a lot of ways to test.

very easily now I mean New York actually. is sending tests to schools that request. them so kids may still end up getting. tested or they may send tests home like. they used to but it's much more. difficult to get a sense of who's sick. and that's why we're struggling to. figure out how big this problem is at. the moment. finally on testing and this is. admittedly a bit of a delicate matter I. have noticed there's a growing. reluctance to test even after an. exposure or when you wake up with a. tickle in your throat especially if a.

person isn't really feeling all that. sick because there's a cost to testing. positive that folks just want to avoid. missed school for kids missed work. missed whatever and judgments of that. aside does that just speak to the. reality that in this moment exposure to. covid is kind of the reality of living. in this world. you know I can't really endorse not. testing because I think you do need to. know if you're sick.

you know I I completely understand the. societal cost I have two kids I know. that when your kid tests positive the. kid has to stay home and then you can't. go to work or you don't get as much work. done and they're all these sort of. Ripple effects from that but you don't. want to send the kid to school and start. a mini cluster in that classroom and you. don't know who else is in that kid's. family so I think people should still. test and should still make every effort. to not go out and spread the virus to. other people but I guess what I'm asking.

is do you need to operate under the. assumption that many people aren't. testing isn't that just reality that is. the reality and I think that's comes. back to masking if you want to protect. yourself you may have to rely on your. own self to mask because chances are. pretty good that other people around you. are not testing don't know if they're. sick or not telling you that they're. sick right so let's say you do tests and. you test positive in the past that. triggered this kind of shutdown of life.

right that's like like everything closed. and we quarantined that does not seem to. be the case for a lot of people anymore. you know people who test positive they. still take flights for all kinds of. reasons they get on the plane right they. still go to parties. I had the experience of notifying a. friend pretty recently hey I'm pretty. sure I've been exposed. fair warning do you still want to come. over this weekend and the answer was yes. I do I want to see you I want to see the. kids so how do you think about the new. rituals around all of this knowing that.

in this current surge people's tolerance. for risk is pretty high. but you don't know if the person you're. about to meet has a very high tolerance. I think what you did were you informed. your friend and let your friend make the. decision that's a great way to deal with. it you know I think about it like when. my kids were little and they would have. colds which was like every day it seemed. like right and if you had a social. engagement you'd tell the friend hey my. kid is sick do you still want me to come.

over and it's you leave it up to them to. decide it's okay with them rather than. you deciding for them that covet is not. a big deal right so you're suggesting a. kind of sick kid model which if you have. a kid tends to be kind of automatic I. have a sick kid can I bring them over or. you're headed over here you should know. I have a sick kid apply that essentially. to covet as a matter of disclosure. ideally you know people just wouldn't go. out at all if they were sick but. realistically as you're saying if people.

aren't going to do that then I think you. at least are obliged to tell people and. let them make the decision okay this. might be something of a curveball but. I've heard this kind of story from. people. in my life. they test positive for covid they're. headed to an outdoor social activity and. they tell themselves it's going to be. okay. outdoor transmission doesn't happen this. is going to be safe this is really. important to me we are where we are in.

this pandemic I'm gonna do this. so how should we think about that. you know I wouldn't go to an outdoor. event if it was going to be very crowded. like a I don't know Taylor Swift concert. but if it's a picnic with a bunch of. friends and you can maintain some. distance we know that outdoor activities. generally safe for covet there's very. very few documented cases of. transmission from Outdoors so you know. you could wear a mask if you wanted to. but really as long as you weren't too.

close to somebody outside it's probably. okay. okay here I want to acknowledge that we. have been trying to inhabit the Mind. space of those who have decided that. taking a ton of precautions In This. Moment doesn't make sense for them but. there are of course those who don't feel. that way they want to be very careful. and they want to take a lot of. precautions perhaps they are. immunocompromised perhaps they live with. someone who is immunocompromised or they. just want to be careful because they. really don't want to get coveted how are.

they supposed to navigate this moment. especially as cases rise and as so many. people are not taking these precautions. right I mean that means it's pretty hard. to be a cautious person right now there. are ways that they can protect. themselves and we know this from earlier. in the pandemic you know you wear a good. mask you avoid socializing with other. people or you socialize Outdoors you. know you avoid crowded indoor spaces all. these things but it is a little bit. different now because so few other. people are doing these things and so you.

know there's a lot of judgment I mean. I've heard from people who are severely. immunocompromised who are going to. hospitals even Cancer Centers where you. think everyone should be masking and. they're the only ones wearing a mask. even the staff aren't wearing a mask and. so it's terrifying for some people in. fact there was a study recently that. said that more people with cancer died. during Omicron when the cases were mild. then during the previous Winter's surge.

partly because so many fewer people. around them were taking precautions and. so the risks to them were higher. which presumably might apply to this. moment as well in other words when. people let down their guard their risk. to those at highest risk is just much. higher. it is and it's also lonelier for them. because everyone around them is doing. something entirely different right okay. so given that this may be our last. conversation about kovid on The Daily. Four a little while I want to ask about.

the future not just the near future but. the distant future so much has clearly. changed in just the past three years of. this virus there's no better evidence of. that than the fact that we're talking. about an annual coveted shot that we're. supposed to take along the flu shot. and the fact that boosters are no longer. even part of the conversation so I'm. curious whether you've given thought to. what this all might look like in five. years maybe even 10 years and will this. continue to be a story of less and less. risk do we think and looser and looser.

approaches to it or not. it's almost impossible to predict what. will happen. as you know we've had that conversation. many times but. we've been talking this whole time with. the idea that we're gonna keep going in. this direction where the virus becomes. less and less of a threat and we all. build up more and more immunity and we. have fewer hospitalizations than debts. and that's certainly one possibility and.

one that we all hope for but there are. other possible scenarios there are. possibilities where maybe we see a. variant that comes through that doesn't. respond to vaccines maybe we see a. variant that's incredibly contagious. sort of like Omicron was and and threw. everything into a tailspin so. really the short answer is. we hope that this will become like the. flu. and something that we only worry about. for three months of the year. but we just don't know.

[Music]. as always thank you very much. thanks for having me. [Music]. the new covid vaccine is expected to be. available in pharmacies and clinics by. the end of the week. foreign. [Music].

here's what else you need to know day. more than 5 000 people have died and. thousands are missing in Northern Libya. after torrential rains caused two dams. in the coastal city of Darna to burst. setting off floods that washed out. Bridges buried buildings and carried.

entire neighborhoods into the sea the. flooding is the latest natural disaster. to befall the region an earthquake over. the weekend in another Northern African. country Morocco has killed nearly 3 000. people and. welcome back everyone House Republicans. have uncovered serious incredible. allegations. and to President Biden's conduct in.

Washington house Speaker Kevin McCarthy. has opened an impeachment inquiry into. President Biden focused on weather Biden. improperly benefited from business. dealings involving his son Hunter and. sought to conceal his knowledge of those. dealings. the American people deserve to know that. the public offices are not for sale. and that the federal government is not. being used to cover up the actions of a. politically Associated family.

the move appears to be an effort to. appease far-right lawmakers who have. threatened to oust McCarthy unless he. meets their demands for deep spending. cuts in the budget something McCarthy. has so far struggled to accomplish. but while impeaching the president is. popular among conservatives there was. not enough support among more moderate. Republicans to begin an impeachment. inquiry with a formal vote so McCarthy. instead opted to start the inquiry on.

his own. today's episode was produced by Claire. tennis getter Olivia Nat and Sydney. Harbor it was edited by Devin Taylor. contains original music by Dan Powell. and Marion Lozano and was engineered by. Alyssa Moxley. our theme music is by Jim brunberg and. Ben Landsberg of Wonderland.

[Music]. that's it for the Daily. I'm Michael Navarro see you tomorrow. [Music].