A Guide to Election Night 2026

If you could describe how you are. feeling about this election in a single. word, is there a word that comes to. mind? >> Hopeful. >> Anxious. >> Scary. >> Important. >> Consequential. >> Needed. >> This whole administration is shisha. >> I'm relieved that it's over and I don't. have to listen to the advertisements. anymore. >> Optimistic-ish. >> From The New York Times, I'm Michael. Barbaro. This [music] is The Daily. >> May I ask who you voted for today in the.

Senate race? >> Oh, Abdul El-Sayed, of course. Yeah. Absolutely. >> I'm not the biggest Paxton fan, but to. me it was kind of the lesser of two. evils. >> I voted for James Tallarico. >> Nothing against Tallarico, but I think. voting for [music] him is a vote for. Chuck Schumer. >> I did pretty much go Democratic. I don't. always do that, but I did today. >> I did vote for [music] Mary Peltola. >> I'm voting for Susan Collins. >> I have definitely voted for Troy. Jackson, of course. >> Yeah, I'm going to hold my nose and vote.

for the dope. Going to vote for. >> [music]. >> Troy Jackson. The Senate's full of idiots. At least. he's our idiot. >> After two years of campaigning, more. than 11 billion dollars of advertising, and last-minute dramas in Alaska and. Michigan, [music]. the 2026 midterm election is now in the. hands of the American voters. [music]. >> What's the number one issue you're. voting on today? >> Oh, to stop the current regime.

>> The stakes are very high because of. Trump. Everything else [music] pales in. comparison. >> We want to keep our country American. >> We don't want Sharia law here at all. >> The biggest issue on my mind is the. economy. Everything just don't double, triple. I. mean, damn, $4 for a bag of chips? That's ridiculous. >> Yeah. >> There's so many issues. How can you. think of just one? I'm worried about everything. >> Today, >> [music]. >> as the ballot counting.

my colleague, chief political analyst. Nate [music] Cohn, offers a guide for. how to understand tonight's results. >> After the election, [music] when you. wake up, what are the headlines that. you're hoping to see? >> A red wave. >> That there is no big blue [music] wave. >> Good God, I'm hoping that this predicted. blue wave is actually a real thing. >> The blue wave that everyone's. predicting. I would love to see that. headline. >> It's Tuesday, November 3rd, >> [music]. >> election day.

Nate. >> Michael. >> Happy election day. >> Happy election day. >> To you, and to all who celebrate. >> To every American voter, happy election. day. >> So, Nate, we are here today to do. something we started doing with you a. few elections ago, which is to offer our. listeners a road map to election night. Because, starting around 7:00 p.m. Eastern tonight, everyone's screens are.

going to be bombarded with projections. and breaking news alerts, this person. won this House seat, this person lost. that Senate seat, and it's always. cacophonous, a little confusing, and so. we want to give people a user's guide to. the entire night with you as our guide, our captain, whichever. >> Do you have a preferred metaphor? >> Preferred metaphor. Captain will work. And you come armed, Captain, with a new. round of polling that the Times.

completed over the weekend, so it's as. up-to-date as imaginable. So, start with. that new data. >> Stepping back briefly, as we've said on. the show before, the Democrats are. overwhelming favorites to take the. House. The big question this election is. whether they can win the Senate, where. they need to win at least two seats that. Donald Trump won by double digits. That's a tough feat. Our final polls of. the seven states likeliest to decide the. Senate show the Democrats ahead, even if. sometimes only narrowly, in all seven of. those Those are Those are That's.

Michigan, Maine, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska. Five of those states, by the way, voted for Trump by double. digits. >> Wow. >> If the polls are exactly right, and they. never are, of course, but if they are, that would be enough for Democrats to. take the chamber and have an election. that they wouldn't have even imagined a. year ago. >> Right. And this was, we should just say, polling largely conducted before. two pretty dramatic political surprises.

over the past week. We had a Times. investigation into the Alaska Senate. race that showed that the Democratic. nominee, Mary Peltola's campaign, played. a role in recruiting a spoiler. candidate, a second Dan Sullivan. And. then, after that, as if that wasn't. dramatic enough, we had the losing. Democratic primary candidate in the. Michigan Senate race, Haley Stevens, snub the Democratic nominee, Abdul. El-Sayed, and cross party lines and.

endorse his Republican rival, Mike. Rogers. Did the polling tell us anything. about whether either of those two soap. operas might matter in those two races? >> In a certain sense, the poll in Michigan. found Dr. El-Sayed up by 11 points. >> Wow. >> Which is his largest lead of the cycle, a six-point gain from our last poll in. September. >> Seemingly undentable, perhaps, by. >> would seem undentable. >> Haley Stevens endorsing his rival. >> That's right. In this political. environment, with Donald Trump as.

unpopular as he is, seems like Michigan. Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. are going to get behind Dr. El-Sayed if. our poll is right. >> Mhm. Alaska? >> Alaska's a pretty different story. That's a race where Mary Peltola only. led by one point. And that was a. >> In our final toss-up. >> final poll, that was a decline from a. seven-point lead in our penultimate. poll. She has had other issues in this. campaign. About a month ago, the Times. reported that she had potentially. mistreated staff members. So, the trend. line there is sort of working the wrong. direction. And now, here's what may be a.

final push that could potentially help. her Republican rival get over the top. >> Got it. But still Beto O'Rourke is. leading in that poll, just not by much. at all. >> Not by much. I think that race is a true. toss-up if you take our data on its. face. >> Okay. >> But, >> all in all, a very positive poll for. Democrats across these seven key Senate. races that could determine which party. controls that chamber. Let's now. incorporate that into our road map for. election night. >> Okay.

Well, you know, as I mentioned, it's. sort of inevitable that the Democrats. are going to take the House this year. And one way to think about that is in. terms of a metaphor that people love to. use in midterm elections, and that's the. idea of a blue wave. >> Mhm. >> There's no formal definition of a blue. wave. >> You know it when you see it. >> You do know it when you see it, but some. kind of blue wave is inevitable in this. election. That's the reason why a. Democratic House seems essentially. inevitable in this election. But, the. big question is whether that wave will. be big enough to yield major Democratic. breakthroughs, even in districts and.

states that voted for Trump by double. digits, to give them that feeling of a. sweeping victory. >> Mhm. In potentially both chambers. >> Absolutely. So, in that sense, Michael, I see four basic scenarios for what. might unfold on election night. All four involve blue waves, but they're. of different heights, and they will. leave Democrats or Republicans feeling. very differently. when all the votes are counted. >> Okay. Let's talk through these four. wave-ish. scenarios. Let's start with.

the first one. >> I think the first scenario is that the. Republicans in heavily Republican. districts stay dry. >> So, you're really going to commit to the. bit here. >> to the metaphor. You're a Republican on. a cliff. The big blue wave crashes ashore. It's. as big as any wave you've ever seen, but it doesn't reach you way up at your. height, way in these Trump plus 10. districts. >> How? How does that not reach them? >> Well, one factor is that the Republicans. have redrawn the nation's congressional. maps to their advantage over the last. year. You can think of that as.

Republican mapmakers evacuating their. members away from the shoreline into. high ground. So, they would have been. knocked out if it weren't for. redistricting. Now, they're way up above. the wave. Maybe they can survive this. year. The Senate is a little bit of a. different story. There just aren't that. many seats up for grabs in any. particular year. Only 1/3 of the seats. are at stake. And it so happens that. this year there aren't very many. vulnerable Republican seats up for. grabs. So, as I mentioned earlier, the. Democrats will have to flip at least two. states that voted for Trump by at least.

double digits. They'll have to win at. least two states that are on high. ground. >> Right. The map was inherently. challenging for Democrats to begin with. Gerrymandering helped make it even more. challenging. I just want to make sure I. understand what the results of scenario. one look like in the House and in the. Senate. >> In the House, the Democrats win, but. maybe only by a modest margin, a handful. of seats. In the Senate, they don't really come. all that close to flipping the chamber. Some of the states that we've been. talking about as potentially. competitive, like Kansas or Iowa,

South Carolina, they don't end up that. close though. >> on election night. >> They just go to the Republicans. >> They just go to the Republicans, and. that could be clear pretty quickly, Mike. >> Yeah, what would be the signs of that as. the clock starts to tick into the. evening hours on Tuesday? >> With one big caveat that I'll get to in. a second. When the polls close in. Kentucky and Indiana at 6:00 p.m. and. then later across the Southeast at 7:00. p.m., there will be over a dozen of. these districts that are either highly. competitive or that voted for Trump by. double digits that we'll be watching,

where we'll quickly get a sense of. whether the Republicans really are. vulnerable in these heavily Republican. seats like the polls have suggested all. cycle. >> Give us some examples of these places. >> The first one would be Kentucky's 6th. District. It's around Lexington. It. voted for Trump by 15 points. That race. is considered a toss-up. >> Wow. >> And it's a Trump plus 15 district. So, all the Republicans need to do to win. this is just get Republicans to come. back on board, and we'll know pretty. quickly whether Kentucky 6th is. a real race or whether actually.

Republicans are going to show up, vote, and vote Republican. Later on, there's a whole slew of those. gerrymandered districts in North. Carolina and Florida the Republicans. have redrawn to be around Trump plus 10. Democrats are hoping to hold some of. them. We'll see it soon after 7:00 p.m. whether the Republicans succeeded in. flipping those districts or not and. whether they did so with room to spare. And then we'll also have the Senate. races in South Carolina and Florida. Republicans are expected to win those. races, but if they win them comfortably, by say nearly 10 points like they.

usually would, that would be a sign that. Republicans have come home and that the. worst case scenario for Republicans in. this election might not materialize. I do need to have one big warning though. here. >> Which is? >> Which is that. although we'll know relatively quickly. whether the Republicans have held these. seats, >> Whether they're dry. >> whether they're dry, we are going to have a moment. just before then. when it looks like this election could. be really, really blue. And the reason.

for that is the early vote. It is very clear that the Democrats have. done exceptionally well in the early. vote. It is also possible, however, and we've. seen this happen before like in 2020 or. 2016, that Republicans just show up to. vote on election day. In most of the. states we've been talking about, the early vote gets counted first. The. Democrats could be looking really, really good. And then the election day vote could. come in and leave them disappointed. So, this is a blue mirage. Don't be.

surprised for 45 minutes for Democrats. to be leading in Florida and South. Carolina even if they're actually going. to lose. >> Mhm. >> So, we have to wait at least a little. bit to see that election day vote before. we can determine the direction that the. night is heading. >> Fascinating. Nate, if scenario one comes to pass, it. will have inevitably meant that there. was systemic polling error of some kind. And you're our chief in-house pollster. So, just help us understand a world.

where the polls. are so off that you get scenario one. >> Yeah, it's important to be clear about. this. At this point, scenario one would. absolutely require a polling error on. the scale of 2016 or 2020, and maybe. even beyond that, Michael. I do think. that it is conceivable. We know in. general that Trump's supporters are less. likely to respond to polls. Pollsters. try and do things to adjust for this, and some cycles it seems to work, and in. some cycles it does not. The other. factor here that I think raises the. potential for a polling error even more.

is that we're really focused on heavily. Republican states and districts. And this creates a risk to pollsters, where even if they're right about what. voters are thinking now, there's this. possibility that in the end Republicans. just do what they usually do. >> They come out and vote. >> Come out and vote. And vote Republican. And look, I don't doubt that there are. millions of Republican voters today who. are deeply dissatisfied with President. Trump and don't even like the Republican. nominee in their state. And they are. expressing that dissatisfaction to.

pollsters. But it remains to be seen. when they show up in a voting booth. whether they're really going to vote for. a Democrat like they say. If they do. not, which I think in today's polarized. era just can't be too surprising, you. would quickly see these. Republican-leaning districts snap back. to the right. >> Mhm. >> And I think that's the biggest risk to. pollsters in this election. >> Right, it's not that they will have. misled pollsters. In a certain sense, they may have misled themselves. momentarily, and once election day rolls. around, they come home to the familiar.

home of the Republican. >> I think that's a real possibility. >> Huh. Okay, that's scenario one. It's. extremely good for Republicans in this. environment. Extremely bad for. pollsters. Let's talk about scenario. two. >> Scenario two is where the Republicans. don't stay dry. They get really wet. The. wave reaches them high up on the cliff. The wave is every bit as big as the. pollsters said it would. The Democrats. win the House and they win it big. But in the critical states where Donald. Trump won by 10 points or more, the.

Republicans hold on. So, in the first scenario, a race like. South Carolina Senate may not even be. close at all. That's the race where. Darlene Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, is running in what seems to be a. surprisingly close race in a state that. is never really competitive in federal. elections. In this one, it really is. close. But in this scenario, Darling Grain. wins. And the same story would play out. in Iowa, and in Kansas, and maybe in. Ohio, and enough states that the. Republicans ultimately retain control of. the Senate.

In this scenario, we will have to wait. much longer on election night before we. understand that the Republicans have. retained control of the chamber. Because unfortunately, most of the key Senate states do not. close their polls early on election. night. So, it might only become clear that the. Republicans are favored by maybe. midnight. And worse still, if it's really close, there are two states, Maine and Alaska, where I'm not sure we're going to know. the answer for days in this scenario.

Both states take a really long time to. count their vote. Maine counts their. vote in much of the state by hand, and. in recent elections, 20% of the vote is. still uncounted at noon on Wednesday. Alaska, I think has a better excuse, which is that it has this huge far-flung. population that's voting by mail. But. that takes them a week to count. And as. if all this isn't enough, there's then a. second wrinkle in both of these states. They both have rank-choice voting. So, once they've counted all the votes, then. they have to do the rank-choice vote if.

no one reaches 50%, which in this. scenario is quite possible. >> round of counting. >> Yeah. And so, like in Alaska, I think. that's November 18th. So, in this scenario, >> people to see the pain look on your face. right now. >> You said happy election night, you. should really be saying happy race call. day. Because in this scenario where the. Republicans narrowly hang on, it would be a really long time before. they had run the table in each of these. critical states that they're in danger. in. >> So, basically, in scenario number two, Democrats get very close to winning the.

Senate, but the cards just don't break. their way in enough of these red states. Too many Republican candidates win these. seemingly competitive Senate contests, and at the end of the day, they keep. control of the Senate. >> That's right. And I want to note, scenario two by historical measures. could still be an extraordinary night. for Democrats. It could be the best performance that. the party has had in red states in. decades. Like I think it's conceivable Democrats. could win Texas in the scenario, or.

maybe it's Kansas. And any of them by. historic standards would really be. impressive. But the critical thing about. the scenario is it just doesn't add up. to 51 seats for them, which is what's. ultimately going to determine whether. they're thrilled by the ultimate outcome. or not. >> And ultimately, given the expectations, I suspect Democrats would be deeply. disappointed. And regardless, it would. be an incredibly late night. So let's, Nate, move on to the third scenario. >> In a lot of ways, scenario three is a. lot like scenario two. The wave is. basically as big, the Republicans are.

all wet, but in scenario three, the. Republican sandbags fail. The wave. swamps them, and in these critical. Senate races, the Democrats do flip the. seats they need to take control of the. Senate. >> Okay, so key difference between three. and two is that the Democrats do take. the Senate, but by how much? >> To me, what's unique about scenario. three is that these states are all. really close, and the difference between. scenario three and scenario two could be. tens of thousands of votes in Alaska and.

in Ohio and so on. And in one, they. break one way, and the other, they break. toward the Democrats. I think that the. best case for Democrats in this scenario. might be something like 53 seats in the. Senate, maybe even 54, though I think. that would be pretty lucky. But it could. be as little as 51. They could just. barely scratch by with the bare minimum. necessary to take the chamber. As long. as they do that, I think the Democrats. will ultimately feel elated by the. night, even if it is a disappointment. compared to, you know, polls that have. raised the even higher expectations than.

that. >> What will be the indication that a. scenario three is unfolding versus a. scenario two? Because, as you say, the. waves may not feel all that different in. scale. So when would we know the. difference? >> I think that there are really two paths. for how we could feel the difference. One of them is where Democrats win on. election night in enough of these states. that do count their votes quickly. enough.

Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas. If the Democrats are winning those. states, we could have a decision on. election night. It may be late on. election night, but we'll know that the. Democrats have taken the House and the. Senate. And the Senate. >> Right. If the Democrats depend on Maine. or Alaska to do it, we're still stuck. waiting. >> So, [music]. from a purely selfish point of view, let's hope we have resolution quickly. >> going to happen, let it happen fast. >> Let's exactly. >> Okay. Let's take a quick break, and when we. come back, come to the fourth, final,

and I believe the most dramatic. political scenario. >> That's right. >> Of Tuesday night. >> It would be something that we haven't. seen in American politics in a long. time. >> Okay. We'll [music] be right back. Nate, the fourth scenario for Tuesday. night. >> The fourth scenario is the tsunami. It's. where the life jackets and the sandbags.

never really had a chance. You're on the. cliff, and the wave is way over your. head. If you're a Republican, they are. inundated. Let me describe what the. extent of the damage Republicans could. look like in this sort of scenario. In the House, the Democrats could win. the popular vote by double digits and. claim 250 seats, maybe. In the Senate, the Republicans wouldn't. merely lose in some close battles in a. few critical states. The Democrats might. win the Senate with room to spare. In a.

place like Michigan, where the Democrats. have a candidate in Dr. El Sayed that. maybe could have lost in a different. election, like maybe he cruises to a. that big double-digit win that our poll. showed this weekend. Maybe Democrats win. Texas, and they don't just win Texas by. a little bit, but they win it big. James. Taylor-Foster wins by five points or. more. with Hispanic voters surging 40-plus. points toward the left. Maybe the Democrats win Kansas, a Senate. state that hasn't voted Democratic since. 1932. Again, not just by a little bit, but by five points or more.

And maybe a whole extra tier of state. that we haven't really considered. top-tier battleground, like South. Carolina, which I've alluded to a few. times, but also add to that Florida or. Mississippi, maybe. The Democrats are. spending money there. And maybe those are the states that wind. up being the closest on election night. States that we haven't even really. considered to be top-tier contests. >> Mhm. >> Stepping back, this is a generational. victory. This is the largest victory for. either party in decades. The Democrats would win more Senate. seats in heavily Republican territory in. this scenario than both 2008 and 2006.

combined and then more. I think you'd have to go back maybe to. 1974, the election right after. Watergate, to come up with something. that felt this big. >> Another major victory for Democrats. >> victory for Democrats. We just haven't. seen an election like this in a very. long time. >> Scenario four. Well, at this point, which of these scenarios seems most. likely, most plausible, given the. polling we've done, given the political. environment we're in?

>> I will find it hard to ever say scenario. four is likely in this polarized era, and when all Republicans need to do to. avert scenario four is show up and vote. Republican. But I do have to be honest with you. And. that's that the polls, if anything, say. that scenario four is the single. likeliest outcome here. Maybe scenario. 3.7 is the likeliest outcome based in. the polls. The polls don't show Republicans losing. in South Carolina, for instance, to take. a case that I had in scenario four. But they do show Democrats winning all.

of these critical Senate states, as I. mentioned at the beginning of the. episode. They also show them winning in. these red states with room to spare. sometimes, like Texas. The final polls. show James Talarico ahead by a. comfortable margin, not just our polls, but other polls. Same story in Kansas. And I I want to note that it's not just. the polls that say this. It's the. behavior of both parties. >> Mhm. >> We've already talked about how Democrats. are spending in places like Mississippi. and South Carolina. The Republicans have. spent hundreds of millions of dollars in. Texas this cycle. It's not because they.

think it's the state it's been in the. past. Donald Trump has been to South. Carolina three times in the last few. weeks. >> And not just because he likes. >> And not just because he loves. Charleston, but because. they appear to be in really serious. trouble here. Now, maybe those efforts. are going to work. Maybe hundreds of. millions of dollars and Donald Trump. going to the right place during the. final stretch gets enough of those. Republicans back on board to avert this, but that is just not what the polling. says today. Even if it is conceivable that the polls. will be wrong as they have been before. >> Mhm. I'm hearing you say that even.

though you don't want to say scenario. four is the likeliest, you kind of just. did say that it's the likeliest. Basically, you're saying that this. fourth scenario would seem to be staring. us in the face. >> That's a great way to put it, Michael. If we were standing beside these. Republicans in these Trump plus 10. states, this wave that we are staring at. looks big enough to wipe us away right. now. >> Now, if you've been on the beach before, you've seen that the waves crash in. unpredictable ways, and the wave that. you think is going to be the biggest. breaks early, and so on. >> So, we can't make a perfect prediction. about what it's going to look like once. this wave breaks on this Republican.

cliff of ours. But, that's what it looks like. >> This is the point in the conversation. where I feel it's incumbent to return to. the question of polling error. We. mentioned it earlier, but we didn't. really talk about it with much. granularity. >> Yeah. >> And as we talk about how big a wave. might look to us, we're basing that. almost entirely on polling. Let's talk. about. why we don't think, or the steps you. have taken to mitigate against the risk.

that this long-standing. trend of Republicans being less likely. to answer the phone for pollsters, Democrats more eager to talk to. pollsters, why that isn't influencing. this understanding that we've arrived. at. >> So, essentially, every pollster is going. much farther to try and adjust their. samples to properly represent Trump. supporters than they did in 2020 or. 2016. They, in particular, simply just. give more weight to the Trump supporters. who take their polls.

So, let's take an evenly divided state. like Pennsylvania. If I take a poll of. Pennsylvania and Trump voters are 40% of. the sample and we know they were 50% of. the vote, the typical pollster will make. them 50% of the vote right now. >> Got it. >> It's a heavy-handed approach. I will. also note that if the turnout is very. blue for Democrats, you can at least. talk yourself into a scenario where. that's an overcorrection potentially. >> Mhm. >> So, it's not a panacea, but it is a. reason to think that the risks could be. lower than before. Though I should just. because the pollsters are doing more. than before doesn't mean that the. underlying problems facing pollsters.

didn't get worse. >> Well, what specific steps have you all. taken here at the times to feel good. about reaching enough Republicans, enough Trump supporters, enough of the. people who might ultimately show up on. Tuesday and essentially wipe out some of. these Democratic advantages? >> Did you use this word feel comfortable. right there? >> Mhm. >> So, at first I just have to reiterate. like although we've taken steps that. I'll work through in a second. There's No one can tell you that they.

know whether the polls are going to be. right heading into an election. But to. answer your question, there are a couple. of things that we do differently both. from other pollsters and in some cases. than what we've done in the past. First. is that we do everything we can to make. sure we reach as many Trump voters as. possible including by ensuring that in. any given state we reach the correct. number of registered Republicans. >> Mhm. >> This is a guarantee that other pollsters. don't make. It doesn't guarantee that. our polls are right either, but I think. it's helpful to have as many of these. voters as possible so you can do the. best job you can at trying to make sure. that the sample is representative.

>> Mhm. >> The second thing is we really do try. pretty hard and in ways that I think are. pretty unique to try and make sure we. have the right kind of Trump supporter. This is something that's different in. this election, but basically for every. respondent we try and guess how likely. they were to vote for Donald Trump. And so with that in mind, we try and. distinguish between the kind of. Republican who maybe did vote for Nikki. Haley, maybe they live in a. college-educated neighborhood, maybe. they have a professional degree, maybe. they have a doctor license, or. conversely maybe they're a Trump donor,

which would be a pretty good sign. they're a Trump supporter. >> And we use that data to try and make. sure that we don't merely have the right. number of Republicans or the right. number of Trump voters, but the right. kind of the extent that we can. Got it. So, again, none of this is a guarantee. of anything, but these are the kind of. things that we've done that we hope give. us a better chance. And I'll note that our final polls, as. blue as they were, would have been three. points bluer. Three points bluer than on. the survey methodology we used in 2024. and 2022.

And our polls weren't that bad in 2024. and 2022. They were pretty accurate. They were pretty accurate. More than. accurate enough for the Democrats to. take the Senate with room to spare if. they were off in the same way they were. that time. >> Are you suggesting that you could be in. that sense over waiting Republicans and. under waiting Democrats even in these. results that are extremely good for. Democrats? >> I I think that could is the important. word here. As I mentioned, we really. don't know. I know that's frustrating, but there have been elections again.

where the polls underestimate Democrats, and there have been elections where they. overestimate them even in the Trump era. And in this tsunami scenario, yeah, I. think people would look back and say, you know, the steps that the pollsters. were doing to try and reach more Trump. supporters, at least in this particular election, went too far. That in every effort to. get as many Trump supporters as you can, you actually missed that a lot of them. just weren't voting in this election. >> I think people hearing us talk about. polling, potential polling error, steps. we're taking to avoid it, will be. curious.

what the actual early vote already is. telling us and how much that may be. supporting or not. the emphasis we're placing on something. like the third or fourth scenario here. >> The early vote looks really blue, Michael. You should be prepared, as I mentioned. earlier, for the Democrats to be leading. in states like Florida and South. Carolina in the 7:00 p.m. hour even. where they're ultimately expected to. lose. But if the Republicans don't vote on. election day in enormous numbers to. counter that, then those states may not. be leaning Republican.

>> It may not be a blue mirage. >> It may not be a blue mirage. It may. actually be the first sight of that real. wave. Or take Texas. 2/3 of the vote has. already been cast in Texas. It's a big. proportion. And in our data, it looks really. democratic. Not only are. young, Latino, and non-voters showing up. in significant numbers in Texas, but at. least in our data, the people who are. choosing to show up are just. systematically likelier to be democratic. or James Tallarico supporters. So, none of this proves anything.

>> on election day. Republicans can. counter, and they have before. In 2020, they did. >> But, at least to this point, I don't. think the Democrats could have asked for. too much more in terms of the turnout. they have. >> Mhm. Obviously, scenarios one and two would. be a huge disappointment to Democrats, but it would to some degree be a. reversion. to the norm. >> It would be a typical It would be a. typical midterm year where the party out. of power does well. But, it still looks. a lot like our usual polarized country. >> Right. Three and four, four especially,

those don't feel familiar. >> They don't. They're something that we. haven't seen in a long time. It's been. 16 years since a party won even one seat. that voted for the other side by double. digits in the prior presidential. election. In our polls, Democrats are. leading in five. Right. So, >> It defies our understanding of our. polarized. >> That's right. In this. >> era. >> And it's worth again coming back to the. voters who will decide this election, and they're not the voters who usually. decide our elections. For the Democrats. to have the kind of night the polls say.

they will, Republican-leaning voters have to decide. either to stay home in enormous numbers. or decide to vote for Democrats in. sufficient numbers. In states like. Kansas and Texas, Iowa, and so on, where. in many cases they may never have voted. for a Democrat for federal office. before. In our polarized era, this is. a tough thing to really imagine. >> Yeah. >> The consequences of a Democratic. landslide or tsunami, to keep our wave. metaphor going, would be really. significant. It would be a repudiation.

of the Trump presidency right at the. beginning of a presidential primary. campaign. >> Mhm. >> It could give Democrats control of state. governments that they haven't thought of. controlling in a long time. We may look back and say that it was. sort of a turning point in the Trump. era. >> The beginning of the end. >> This could potentially be clearly the. moment when Trump's. influence on American politics began to. wane and it was clear that he had gone. too far and had broken too many promises. for him to be able to preserve the. coalition that had brought him and his. populist politics to power.

>> All right, I think we're going to leave. it there. I do want to give listeners a. little bit of a sense of what comes next. for you. >> [music]. >> You're going to walk out of here. You're. going to head into these screen-filled. rooms that are loaded with soda and. candy to sustain you and your colleagues. as you count the votes and you feed them. into these models and these prediction. needles that we produce throughout. election night and that will consume you. for the next 20-something [music]. hours until you return to us at I hope.

2:00 2:30 3:00 a.m. >> That's what it's been in the past. >> Wednesday morning to record our next. [music]. episode cuz this is the first of a. series. >> [laughter]. >> And I don't know how you do it and I'm. extremely grateful to you for doing it. >> Thanks for having me, Michael. >> [music]. >> For a limited time, The New York Times. is making all of our election coverage. free. >> [music]. >> in The New York Times app. There, you'll find in-depth analysis,

poll trackers, and live updates [music]. throughout the midterms including on. election day. Plus, if it's your first. time downloading the NYT app, you can. access all of our journalism free. >> [music]. >> for 30 days. So, give it a try. >> [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. [music]. >> As you know, this is the last day before.

the midterm elections, the most. important midterm I believe in our. lifetime. >> On the final full day of campaigning. across [music] the US. President Trump. tried to rally Republicans with a speech. in front of the Lincoln Memorial. Reflecting Pool, where he denounced this. year's Democratic candidates [music]. as extreme. >> And the Democrat Party has nominated the. most extreme and dangerous. slate of candidates in American history. These are the most dangerous. candidates ever put up.

>> But many of those Democratic candidates. [music] reminded voters that Tuesday's. election was, in their telling, a. referendum on Trump. In Michigan, [music] the Democratic. candidate for Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, mocked Trump for his repeated efforts to. portray [music] him as a radical. >> For his part, Donald Trump can't seem to. figure out what my actual name is. To be fair, Abdul. He always says it with a rasp. Muhammad.

At some point, I'm going to teach him. how to say my name properly, but after. tomorrow, he can just call me Senator. >> Meanwhile, the Times reports [music]. that about 50 million Americans have. already cast ballots, a surge of early. voting that is outpacing [music] the. last midterm cycle in every major Senate. battleground. Polls will open this [music] morning for. in-person election day voting starting. at 6:00 a.m.

Today's episode was produced [music] by. Austa Charurvedi, Ricky Newvetsky, and. Caitlin O'Keefe with help from Diana. Winn, Lexi Diao, >> [music]. >> Carlos Prieto, Anna Foley, Olivia Natt, and Eric Krupke. It was edited by Rachel Quester [music]. and Liz O'Bannon. Contains music by Dan Powell and Marion. Lozano and was engineered by Alyssa. Moxley. Our theme music [music] is by Wonderly.

Special thanks to Michael Cruise, Maya. King, Bayless Wagner, Ryan Patrick. [music] Hooper, Patrick Cooley, Kevin. Williams, Elana Eroge, [music] Kristen. Bayrakdarian, Ishani Desai, and finally. to Eleanor [music] McKinnell Coe, Nate's. daughter, for lending us her father.

>> [music]. >> That's it for the Daily. I'm Michael. Barbaro. See you tomorrow for the. results of the midterm election. >> [music].