A Guide to Election Night 2024

who did you vote for oh Kamal Harry 100%. I like it I voted Kamala yeah I want to. see Mr Trump go way far away for Trump. Donald Trump I had to vote for Trump I. feel more connected to that plus he was. in my hood neither of them Jo Stein for. president I left it blank I was. indecisive and I wasn't really too keen. on voting on who I was going to vote for. from The New York Times I'm Michael. babbaro this is the daily can I ask you.

to describe how you're feeling in one. word nervous anxious nervous I just feel. it's a lot chaos after 2 years of. campaigning more than a billion dollar. of advertising and a last minute change. to one of the nominees the 2024 race for. president is now in the hands of the. American voters this is the most. important election that I'm going to. vote in in my adult life I think you. know walking up here made me emotional.

because I look at my daughter and I know. that I'm voting for her. future no matter who wins one side or. the other is going to feel like they've. been cheated everyone is going to be. heartbroken on both sides I guess we. just have to wait and see today as the. ballot counting begins my colleague Nate. con offers a guide for how to understand. tonight's results.

it's Tuesday November. [Music]. 5th Nate Michael thank you for coming in. thanks for having me happy election day. happy election day can you believe it I. can't I can't really either so Nate we. are here today to do something we. started doing last election which is. offer our listeners a road map to.

election night because starting around. 700 p.m. Eastern tonight everyone's. screens are going to be flooded with. vote tallies and breaking news banners. about projected State victories and it's. confusing and so we want to give people. a users guide to the entire night with. you as our guide so guide. away guide us well let's just start by.

by observing there are three basic. scenarios for what could happen and keep. these in mind as we go through the. chronology of the night because at. different points we may know different. things depending on what is really going. on so our guide begins with scenarios. and one thing I want to note about these. three scenarios is that I think they're. all very plausible okay in fact in each. case I think we could tell ourselves. after the fact we should have seen it. coming all along one scenario is a. decisive victory for KLA Harris a. repudiation of Donald Trump after all he.

led an Insurrection on January 6 the. Supreme Court overturned Row versus Wade. Democrats have been overperforming in. special elections and midterm elections. and KLA Harris has been gaining. certainly over the longer stretch of. this race back to when Joe Biden was the. Democratic nominee if in the end the. race broke her way it would not be a. great surprise and she could win a. decisive Victory clearly in the popular. vote and in the Battleground States a. second scenario is the total flip side. of that a decisive victory for Donald.

Trump the culmination really of the. populist realignment that he Unleashed. in 2016 in this scenario the white. working class voters who he won in 2016. stick by his side but now he adds to it. the black working class and Hispanic. working class and young voters that's a. scenario where he wins the popular vote. the first Republican to win the popular. vote since 2004 it's a trump sweep of. the seven Battleground States in all. likelihood I just want to point out that. for either of these two first scenarios.

to be true the repudiation of trump big. Harris Victory the Trump realignment big. Trump Victory the polling that you have. been intimately involved in for a year. would have to have been systematically. off to a degree either systematically. underestimating her support or. systematically underestimating his. support that's right and it's worth. noting that it doesn't take too much of. a systematic error either way for this. ction to quickly look like a pretty.

decisive Victory the polls are basically. tied everywhere after all right move. that three points to the left or three. points to the right things feel really. differently really fast right that said. if the polls are right and it is really. close then we have our third scenario. which is yet another really close. election all of these swing states are. decided by one or two percentage points. we have to stay up all night to count. the votes obviously there are a lot of. different versions of the scenario one. where Trump wins narrowly one where. Harris wins narrowly but either way.

we have yet another election with Donald. Trump on the ballot yet another close. election basically this third scenario. is a repeat of the grinding slog that. was the 2020 presidential race yes it's. close as hell and we don't have an. outcome for quite some time you've got. it okay these are going to be useful. touchstones I suspect as we turn to the. question of how all this is going to. unfold tonight hour by hour so walk us. through that as best you can where do.

you want to start we start in the South. it's where the polls will close first in. North Carolina Florida Virginia and. Georgia what time is it in our clock 700. p.m. in Virginia and most of Florida and. Georgia and 7:30 in North Carolina Po's. closed there and while you might think. after the way the vote count went in. 2020 that it could be a week before we. know anything there in these states. we're going to know a lot fast we could. even have race calls in all of these. states even in a fairly close election.

by midnight huh some of that's because. the number of mail ballots have. plummeted some of it is because the. states have improved their procedures in. all of them the early vote will tilt a. little bit Democratic the early vote is. usually counted first so Harris could. come out to an early lead in North. Carolina for instance Trump would hope. to counter on Election Day You're. hinting at something that I think we all. remember really well from 2020 which is. this concept of the. mirages which is to say that the the. polls close and the tallies begin to.

appear on our screens they start to. misrepresent a total outcome based on. Democratic early voting numbers which. tend to be High versus election day. voting numbers which tend to tilt. towards Republicans so you're saying. we're going to immediately start to see. either red or blue mirages of some kind. yes that said I do want to note that. there will be a lot less Miri than four. years ago the gap between the early vote. and the election vote is poised to be.

significantly reduced there are both. fewer Democrats participating by mail. and more Republicans decided to turn out. early in person and the combination of. those two things has significantly. reduced the Democratic advantage in the. early vote got it and thus made the. mirages a little less Miri much less. Miri okay what should we be looking for. in terms of wins losses calls for Trump. or Harris in these key Southern swing. states that will start to give us a feel. for for whether we're looking at.

scenarios 1 two or three so in the. repudiation scenario Harris is probably. leading in North Carolina and Georgia. from the start and by the time 900 p.m. 10 p.m. rolls around and that election. day vote is coming in she's still. holding maybe she's a little more. competitive in Florida Than People. assumed and Virginia is a comfortable. victory for her got it in the Trump. realignment scenario these states may. not be close and we could have. relatively early calls in Georgia North. Carolina in favor of trump he could win. them by multiple percentage points.

Virginia looks much closer than. Democrats hoped and Florida is a. landslide m in the toss-up scenario we. may still find that those states are. toss-ups by 9:00 or 10 p.m. and we have. to wait to see the exact election day. turn out county by county before we're. able to make a call in those States all. right which of the southern states. should we be watching most closely. during this first wave Georgia and North. Carolina they're really close and they. make a huge difference in the Electoral.

College math reminder you need 270. electoral votes to win if kamla Harris. cannot win either of those two states. then her road to 270 gets very narrow. very quickly M she would need to sweep. Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in. all likelihood to Prevail or pull off an. upset in Arizona which we will get to. which we will get to but that would. greatly narrow her path to Victory. conversely if Donald Trump loses North.

Carolina and Georgia his path to 270. looks really challenging at that point. because he would have to sweep all the. northern states and worse for him those. have been the states where he's tended. to pull worse this cycle so the outcome. of these two states will not only tell. us a lot about the overall picture of. what's happening in the country it will. begin to greatly narrow the range of. paths to victory for the two candidates. okay let's talk about the next Regional. wave that will come after the s and as a.

reminder keep us on a kind of evening. clock here so around 9 or 10 p.m. right. around the time when it's becoming quite. clear what's happened in Georgia and. North Carolina we'll start to get our. first clues about what's happening in. the northern Battleground states that. so-called blue wall of Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Michigan the states that. Biden won in 2020 states that Biden won. in 2020 that Trump won in 2016 unlike. the southern states those states are not. going to count their vote. especially fast we're going to be.

watching the count there in all. likelihood all night let me just ask you. why why is it going to take Midwestern. states longer to count than the South. presumably they all have the same. technology well they're not necessarily. using the same technology oddly enough. but there are two broad reasons why the. north will take longer one is the. different laws about mail ballots in. some northern states like Pennsylvania. they can't begin to even open the mail. ballots until the morning of the. election huh in the southern states they.

can begin processing those ballots well. before election day as a result Florida. can have all of its mail ballots. processed and ready to go in the polls. close Pennsylvania will not so it's as. simple as in some of these Southern. States the minute that the voting ends. in the evening those mail and ballots. they're in the count and in place like. Pennsylvania they may still be opening. the mail that's right and this is where. the technology thing oddly winds up. being relevant because there are. actually huge differences in the. technology of available to different.

counties and the way they open envelopes. for instance that's done with a machine. some machines can open 100,000 ballots. an hour some open 20,000 so what a. country it each county is doing it. differently so that can create very. different rates of counting mail Bots. not only by state but even within. different parts of a state and how. should we be thinking about who wins. which of these northern states and what. it's going to mean to our 2702 win math. as I just mentioned if Trump wins North. Carolina in Georgia then Harris probably.

needs to sweep all three of Michigan. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to Prevail. with a very narrow Electoral College. majority in that same scenario I'm. guessing she's not winning these states. in blowouts either so it could take a. very long time to have an outcome if. Harris has won North Carolina North. Carolina then Harris can afford to lose. in Michigan or a Wisconsin but not. Pennsylvania unless he makes up for it. with Nevada later on um but you know. there then we have a lot of complicated. scenarios where a lot of different doors. are open so just to close out the north.

when as best you can guess will we have. calls in these northern states so the. answer varies a lot by state they each. have different procedures for how they. Count Their votes I will say Michigan. and Wisconsin are better those States I. think a call in the early morning hours. or early the next day very realistic the. one with the most uncertainty is. Pennsylvania as I mentioned this is the. state where they can't start opening. their ballots until the morning of the. election so all of this comes down to.

just how many of these envelopes they. can open and how many of these ballots. they can process in 2020 they didn't get. even close to counting all of them on. Election Day and it took us a week. before we had a call I think there's a. lot of reason to think it's going to be. much better than 2020 I don't know. however if that means they count 75% of. the male Vote or 95% of the male vote. and that will make a huge difference in. terms of whether we will know the. outcome in Pennsylvania on Election. night right and of course Pennsylvania. is potentially the state we will be.

waiting on for an overall call on the. race especially if as you previously. told us Donald Trump sweeps the South. yeah and it's worth remembering that. Harris is the candidate who leads the. male vote so m not as in men women but. as an absentee male ballots as a result. if they can't tabulate all the mail. ballots on Election night then Trump. will have more and more of a lead on. Election night in the result gets more. mirag the more of those ballots they get.

through the less mirag it gets and the. Liker we are to know the outcome got it. all to say compared with the South the. north is likely to be in many scenarios. a bit Messier and a lot. longer that's right I think that if. someone's winning. comfortably we could know by the next. morning but if it's really close then it. could take days.

we'll be right. [Music]. back okay Nate we're back and we need to. cover the next and I suspect Final Phase. of Swing States tonight and when going. to know things yep the Final Phase is.

the West which we will be watching for. weeks and weeks to come weeks weeks. unlike the northern states and the. southern states I think the count in. Arizona Nevada California and so on is. going to be just as slow as it was four. years ago H I don't remember how slow it. was four years ago well it took a week. to call Arizona Nevada Biden went pretty. decisively and they still couldn't call. until Saturday and you may recall in the. 2022 midterms that the house was not. called for days as we waited on.

California I think all of those. timelines are still plausible in 2024. and I'm going to guess that has to do. with some combination of the time. difference there as well as mail and. ballot counting rules it's all about the. procedures for counting these mail. ballots how many mail ballots will. arrive after election day is one huge. variable in Nevada and California. whether they count any male ballots that. were returned at drop boxes on Election.

Day also a big variable that's one thing. that keeps Arizona going so the bottom. line is while we can imagine scenarios. where States like Pennsylvania count all. of their mail ballots by pole closing. it's not going to happen in Arizona and. almost all of the vote in Arizona is by. mail so we're just not going to have the. Full Count it's not going to happen Okay. well walk us. through how the western states fit into. our 270 math. as as our scenarios bed what we've EST.

the and the so there is some good news. here if you could choose two. Battleground States not to know the. result of on Election night you would. choose Nevada and Arizona why Nevada is. the smallest it only fits into the. Electoral math under a pretty narrow set. of circumstances such as in particular a. scenario where Harris loses Pennsylvania. but has made up for it partly but not. completely by winning either North. Carolina and Georgia then she needs.

Nevada to make up for the three. electoral vote gap between Pennsylvania. and North Carolina and Georgia. fascinating so that's a narrow scenario. but it's one where it really matters. Arizona is a larger Battleground state. but it's not a very large Battleground. State and of the seven Battlegrounds. Arizona is the one state where a. candidate seems to have a modestly clear. lead and that's Donald Trump who's led. the polls by three points as a result it. doesn't Loom as heavily in our thinking. of either candidates clearest path 270.

electoral votes in a Clos election right. but there are two other reasons why it's. important that the West will take a long. time to count its votes one reason is. the house the house promises to be very. closely fought and there are a lot of. contested Congressional races in. Washington Oregon Alaska California non-. swing States non- swing States but with. lots of Swing districts so if the house. is relatively. close we're not even going to be close. to making a projection for overall house.

control until the mail ballots at West. get counted and again that can be days. or weeks the second reason that it. matters that the West takes so long to. count is the national popular vote. California is going to be Harris's. largest prize in the Electoral College. and she'll win the popular vote there by. millions of votes those votes are not. going to be counted on Election night. and so if the national vote is. relatively close let's say Harris is. only going to win in the end by one one. point Trump is going to lead in the.

National popular vote on Election night. because those Western mail and ballots. haven't been counted yet and that of. course would have real implications for. his growing and false claims of election. fraud they would very likely feed into. him potentially even claiming Victory. prematurely absolutely it would be used. to cast doubt on the results in the. Battleground States if hypothetically. Harris had actually won the.

Battlegrounds while still trailing in. the National popular vote and then if. Harris does ultimately take the lead in. the popular vote whether that's hours. days or weeks later that will also be. used as a sign that the Democrats were. trying to shift it at the end in the. same way that in 2020 the slow count was. used to sew doubts about the results in. States like Pennsylvania right in all. these scenarios there will be a kind of. red Mirage that would eventually turn. slightly blue and that could create an.

opportunity for some serious confusion. that's right National popular vote you. should expect a modest red Mirage I do. have to say and I say this from a. comfortable position here on the East. Coast I don't hear any talk of a mirage. here I don't hear any talk of big delays. well I'm not saying we're better or. worse than any other region of the. country I'm just saying you know I have. to tell you that New York City did a.

terrible job counting the vote in 2020. and I I have we kind of always do yeah. it's it's been pretty bad here I don't. know if that's the insult I would be. throwing at our friends out west fine I. want to ask a different question about. the chronology of the night let's assume. for just a minute that there has been. some level of systemic polling error and. it is going to be a decisive win for. either Trump or. Harris perhaps some of these delays. we're talking about then don't matter as. much and when do we expect. to get a full race call if it's decisive.

are we talking before just to use an. example the next day's daily comes out. at 6: a.m. Wednesday morning yes in that. scenario I think that the count is fast. enough for a clear Victory to be called. on Election night like an Obama 2012. style Victory where you win the key. states by four or five. points if it's closer than that of. course that could take a long time. obviously okay but if there's a clear. victory in in the southern states or in. the northern states that we should know.

on Election night on behalf of people at. home wondering at what point in the. actually it's going to be really close. scenario do you say to yourself go to. bed there's no call I mean I remember. walking around zombie like in 2020. because there wasn't a call on Tuesday. there wasn't a call on Wednesday there. wasn't a call on Thursday there wasn't a. call on Friday it came came Saturday.

morning I was in a car driving on the. highway I luckily I had my microphone. with me but like you know we waited we. waited and it was genuinely um a ride. Pennsylvania is the key variable here. and it just comes down to how many of. these male Bots they successfully. process on Election Day if they process. all of them we'll know that I think on. Election night and there may not be much. of a wait and you should stay up if they. don't and it comes down to Pennsylvania. which it probably will. go to bed go to bed okay you are about.

to go off you're going to walk out the. studio you're going to set up systems. and processes to count you're going to. be consumed by this for the next I don't. know 20 hours more than that and my true. final question to you is are you going. to make time for us tonight if we need. you because the country you know the. country needs the guide to guide when we. get a result or don't get a result how. early do you need me I don't know like I.

suppose we're going to try to tape. around um 3:00 a.m. I think 3 3:30 is. probably the last minute we can record. there should be a window in that range. where we've gotten most of what we're. going to get on Election night and I can. come away from my computer to talk to. you please come I'll do my best your. country needs you the listeners need you. meanwhile thank you very much Nate as. always we really appreciate it thanks. for having. [Music].

Michael speaking of the election we want. to hear from you once the election is. called and a winner is declared record a. voice memo on your phone and tell us a. few things your name where you live and. how you feel about the outcome your. immediate reaction your hopes and Fe. years for president-elect Trump or.

Harris and how your life could change as. a result of their Victory keep it. relatively short less than 2 minutes and. send the file to the Daily at. nytimes.com that's the daily at NY. times.com with the subject line reaction. [Music].

we'll be right. [Music]. back here's what else you need to. another day so hello to Pennsylvania. very special place so. Pennsylvania I'm here to ask for your. vote I'm here to ask for your vote on. the final day of the campaign KLA Harris. and Donald Trump barnstormed across.

Pennsylvania from the very start of our. campaign this has not been about a fight. that is against something this is about. a fight that is for. something during a series of rallies. Harris framed her campaign against Trump. as a battle between unity and Division. and between tyranny and freom why I say. that I am not going to be a leader who. thinks that people who disagree with me.

should be put in jail that they are the. enemy I'll give them a seat at the table. because that's what real leaders do and. that's what strong leaders. do during a set of competing rallies. honestly she's a disgrace Trump. described the stakes of today's election. very differently over the past four. years Camala has orchestrated the most. egregious betrayal that any leader in.

American history has ever inflicted Upon. Our People he protrayed it as a choice. between patriotism and radicalism and. between unchecked immigration and a. secure border we will not be invaded we. will not be occupied we will not be. overrun we are an occupied country.

today's episode was produced by Olivia. Nat Eric krupky and Jessica Chong with. help from Carlos PRI Alex Stern Mary. Wilson and AA chv it was edited by MJ. Davis Lyn contains original music by. aliciaa and Rowan nisto and was. engineered by Alysa Moxley our theme. music is by Jim runberg and menand work. of.

[Music]. [Music]. wonderly that's it for the. daily I'm Michael Boro see you tomorrow. [Music].