A Fragile Cease-Fire in Gaza

well uh I've been waiting this moment. for 15. months finally I cannot hear any. drones for 15 months I've been away from. seeing my. TTS I'll be happy when I'm returned to. North Gaza I know it's completely. destroyed but still I want to go there I. want to go to see my daughters to hug.

them uh to feel like they are still. alive from The New York Times I'm. Sabrina tavernes and this is the. daily after more than a year of War. Israel and Hamas have agreed to a. temporary ceasefire relief I guess would. be the first reaction I'll be relieved. when the house Es are back in Israel.

that's when I'll be relieved it prompted. hope that the war could soon end I am. still worried afraid of the. implementation of this ceasefire. agreement but also worry that the. tentative terms could easily fall apart. I don't know what will happen. next today my colleague Patrick Kingsley. on why the agreement finally happened. and what it means for Gaza Israel and.

the broader Middle. East it's Thursday January. [Music]. 16th Patrick you've been covering this. war since the very start in fact we've. had you on so many times to explain to. us the developments to really educate us. about what's going on there and after. many failed attempts at a ceasefire one.

has finally been agreed on we're. speaking on Wednesday afternoon so far. what do we know about what it says in. essence it's a three-stage ceasefire. that could if all goes well end up being. a permanent. truce the first phase is the only part. of the deal that is really nailed down. that's a 6 week phase during which 33. hostages mostly alive but some of them.

dead are set to be released by Hamas and. its allies who captured those hostages. right at the start of the war on October. 7th 2023 and in exchange Israel is. supposed to release several hundred. Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. and during that six weeks we also expect. Israeli troops to gradually withdraw. allowing several hundred thousand. Palestinians who had displaced from.

their homes in Northern Gaza to tents. and makeshift camps in the south of the. strip to return to their homes to move. back northward to a decimated Gaza. City during all of that movement and. exchanges of. captives there will be more negotiations. to see if they can extend this initial. six- we phase into another six- we phase.

during which the deal is supposed to. become permanent and more hostages are. supposed to be released for more. Prisoners the problem is there is still. much to be negotiated about that second. phase and Patrick what Still Remains to. be negotiated exactly there seems to be. still some disagreement about where. exactly Israel will withdraw from and. there's enough ambiguity in there that. the deal could collapse after 6 weeks if.

not before and that ambiguity is. intentional Israel and first and Bost. prime minister Benjamin. Netanyahu did not want to agree to a. deal that would definitively end the war. Hamas had the opposite perspective they. wanted a deal that would end the war for. certain and so the mediators between the. two sides came up with ambiguous wording. that would allow each side to feel like.

they were getting more or less what they. want the wording allows Israel to say. that they can break the arrangement. after 6 weeks and it provides the. possibility for Hamas that the ceasefire. will extend beyond 42 days into. something permanent and that they will. be able to survive the war intact as a. group and in power as the governing. force over God.

Patrick you've talked through two phases. what's the third phase the third phase. would not be significantly different. from the second phase but there would be. final exchanges of dead bodies and other. human remains as well as the start of a. massive reconstruction project to. rebuild the Gaza Strip over several. years so why after all these months is. this ceasefire finally happening now I. think there's several factors here.

one Israel is stronger two Hamas is. weaker and three the Trump. Administration is about to come into. power and has put pressure on prime. minister Benjamin Netanyahu the Israeli. leader yes so let's dig into each of. those points then why don't you start. with Israel stronger since last summer. Israel has had a series of military. successes it has most obviously weakened. Hamas taken over more of the Gaza Strip.

destroyed more of hamas's infrastructure. killed more Hamas leaders including. Yahya sinoa the man who did more than. anyone to Mastermind the October 7th. attack on Israel at the start of the war. further a field Israel has substantially. weakened Hezbollah a key Ally of Hamas. in Lebanon it has weakened hamas's Main. benefact to Iran destroying much of its.

air defenses and another member of the. Iran Le Alliance Syrian government has. collapsed so prime minister Netanyahu. can present more or less the same deal. to the Israeli public and in particular. to his far-right allies as being less of. a capitulation as it was once seen by. parts of his coalition government. because he and Israel are coming from a.

position of greater military strength. and the flip side is that Hamas is. therefore weaker Gaza is decimated. hamas's goal of setting off a kind of. broader regional conflict that would. substantially weaken Israel or perhaps. even destroy it has come to nothing and. the going analysis is that this has made. Hamas more willing to come to the table. and agree to a deal that was on that.

table already for several months and the. third factor is the Trump factor it's. the Biden Administration in tandem with. the Kateri government and the Egyptian. government that has done most of the. running in the negotiations helping to. draft the details of this agreement that. has just been signed and controling the. Israeli government for more than a year. towards this agreement but it seem seems. to be the incoming Trump Administration.

president elect Trump himself and his. incoming middle EAS Envoy Steve wickoff. that have applied the pressure that has. been the straw that broke the camels. back Steve witkoff came to Israel last. week met with. Netanyahu since that meeting the. negotiations have gone from advancing. fairly slowly to suddenly getting to the. point of a deal being.

reached and it seems to be that Trump. who has said for months that he wants to. see a deal by the time of his. inauguration early next week may have. been a decisive factor in getting this. deal over the. line and what exactly did Whit COV say I. mean how did he put pressure on. Netanyahu that may have kind of really. moved it for the Israelis here we went. inside the room so we can't say for sure. but it's it's possible that it was some. combination of carrot and stick the. stick being that Trump who's a.

unpredictable actor would be very angry. if a deal wasn't reached the carrot may. be that the Trump Administration will. back Netanyahu if he decides to resume. the war after six weeks that was less. likely under President Biden but it's. seen as being potentially more likely. under a trump Administration who might. Grant greater leeway to Israel in Gaza. that and President Biden the reverse.

could also be true having helped to. author this deal the Trump. Administration may see its reputation as. being tied to its success and may Place. more pressure on Netanyahu in several. weeks and we wait to see which of those. two outcomes will be the. case so is the Trump Envoy working. directly with the Biden people on. this that's been one of the more. remarkable aspects of the recent days of.

negotiations you've had representatives. of two administrations that really don't. see eye to eye and have very different. visions of American democracy joining. forces to get this deal over the line. the Biden Administration that has led. the way in drafting and wrangling over. many of the details over so many months. in these negotiations it's Trump's. Middle East Envoy who appears to have. played a major role in getting this deal. suddenly Over The Line in recent.

days so those are the mechanics of the. deal and we are left with questions. about how exactly those mechanics will. play out and we're also left with. questions about what all this means in. the long term for Israelis for. Palestinians in Gaza in the West Bank. and also for the region the middle easts. as a whole.

[Music]. we'll be right. [Music]. back so Patrick how should we understand. this deal and what it means for Gins for. Hamas for Israel and really for the. world for Gins it is at least for a few. weeks rest bite from one of the most. most intense aerial campaigns and ground.

invasions certainly in the history of. the Israeli Palestinian conflict but. also in 21st century Warfare and even if. this deal collapses after 6 weeks it. gives them the opportunity to have a. night's sleep without. bombardment it gives people a chance to. find their loved ones whose corpses have. been trapped on the rubble for months in. some cases over a year it gives hundreds. of thousands of Palestinians in southern.

Gaza the ability to finally after more. than a year of displacement return home. to Northern Gaza scores of universities. hospitals medical centers have been. destroyed during this war and it could. even take decades to repair some of that. damage and Patrick who will do all of. that rebuilding so Hamas is a movement. and the Hamas control gazan authorities.

don't really have the ability to do much. of this on their own they're going to. rely on massive overseas help from the. rest of the Arab world from the United. Nations and exactly how that is going to. work has not yet been. decided and Patrick what about Hamas in. the context of this deal what does the. deal mean for that group the deal gives. them the chance of survival as the war. went on they were losing more troops.

more operatives more leaders their top. leader Yahya sinoa was killed if you. recall in October sina's predecessor. isma hania was killed also in the. summer now that the war has stopped at. least for now and there's a possibility. that the initial six we ceasefire would. extend into something longer they may be. able to survive the war both intact as a. movement and in power as a governing.

force in the Gaza. Strip which is pretty remarkable given. where we started which was Israel saying. that Hamas would be eliminated from the. Gaza. Strip they said words to that effect. after the October 7th raid by Hamas and. its allies Israel basically said its two. goals of the war would be to return the. hostages captured by Hamas and its. allies on October 7th and to destroy. Mass's military capabilities and its.

governing capabilities if they are still. able to govern the Gaza Strip after the. war ends or if the ceasefire becomes a. permanent one then that would represent. something of a victory for the group. even if their actions have resulted in. the decimation of the territory that. they controlled Before the War. Began So to that point what about Israel.

what does this deal mean for Israel in. the short term it brings also some. respite also some joy to an Israeli. society that has been traumatized both. by the October 7th attacks which were. the deadliest attacks on Israel in its. history but also by the 466 days since. in which Israelis have been torn by. guilt and sadness over the continued. incarceration of their friends relatives.

in Gaza and if at least some of those. hostages can be released it counts as a. kind of redemption not only for the. hostages themselves but for Israelis. across the political. Spectrum longer term if the deal holds. and Netanyahu decides to continue it and. to nudge it towards something permanent. then it could severely destabilize his.

own coalition government he is in power. in part through the support of several. far right ministers and lawmakers who. deeply oppose ending the war with Hamas. still in power even if that means. leaving some hostages inside Gaza so if. he does agree to take this from a six-. we deal into a longer Arrangement they. could leave his Coalition potentially. destabilizing it or maybe even.

collapsing it which could lead to early. elections and perhaps depending on the. results of those elections a transition. of power within Israeli Society so short. term this brings relief and joy for. Israelis as well as people in Gaza in. the long term it could deepen some of. the divides that we've seen split. Israeli Society for many different. reasons in recent. years you said that one of the reasons.

we're here in this moment talking about. a ceasefire now is because Israel is. actually in a stronger position today. and it makes me wonder about its. position in the broader region you know. as you said a lot of hamas's allies have. been weakened so do you think that. through this war Israel is ultimately in. a more powerful position now in the. region yes and. no in reputation terms Israel has dealt.

itself damaged by the way it has been. perceived to conduct this war it is. accused of genocide at the international. court of justice prime minister. Netanyahu as well as his former Defense. Minister yav Gallant are wanted for war. crimes by the international criminal. court there has been criticism of Israel. almost like never before as a result of. the way conducted its war in.

Gaza and in that sense you could argue. it has lost or it has at least lost. ground in a diplomatic War a war for. legitimacy and a war for. reputation but is that important to. Israel at all I mean the diplomacy you. know okay there's the reputation but. it's not fundamentally related to its. power in the region and winning right so. Israel depends on International support.

for at least some of its actions it. depends on American funds and American. Military resources ammunition fighter. jets in order to wage its Wars and. within the Middle East it depends on. good relations with the Arab world in. order to cement its long-term status. within the region before the war Israel. was close to forging a landmark. diplomatic deal between itself and Saudi.

Arabia the most influential country in. the Arab world the war put those. negotiations on ice and in fact made it. much harder for Saudi Arabia to be seen. to be doing a deal with a country that. many people in the Arab world believe is. committing a genocide against. Palestinians and if the war ends. Israelis will hope that they can get. those negotiations back on track but.

militarily yes as you say Israel has. weakened Hamas they've weakened. Hezbollah they have weakened Iran and. all of those battles contributed at. least in some part to the collapse of. Iran's Ally the Syrian government and so. Israel despite all its internal. divisions has proved itself as the.

Region's strongest military. [Music]. power it means or at least Israelis will. hope it means whatever reputational loss. Israel has suffered because of the. conduct of its war in Gaza both in the. Middle East and across the world it is. simply too powerful militarily to be. wished away and that whatever the anger. many people within the Middle East feel.

towards Israel their leaders will feel. that Israel is a country that they have. to work. with precisely because it is such a. military. [Music]. force Patrick thank you thank you. [Music]. Sabrina on Thursday last minute disputes.

delayed a vote by Israel's cabinet that. would ratify the ceasefire netanyahu's. office accused Hamas of reneging on. parts of it a charge that Hamas denied. despite the last minute wrangling the. agreement is expected to eventually take. effect it will begin on Sunday with. Hamas releasing some hostages in. exchange for Palestinian prisoners. [Laughter]. we'll be right.

back here's what else you should know. today on a busy day of confirmation. hearings for Donald Trump's cabinet his. pick for attorney general Pam Bondi. faced tough questions from Democrats. about whether she could stand up to the. president elect and operate. independently from him so my questions. now are can you tell hard truth to the. president so let me start with an easy. truth that you could speak to the.

president can you tell us can you tell. him that Donald Trump lost the 2020. election can you can you say that do you. have the independence to say that do you. have the the gravitas the stature the. the intestinal fortitude to say Donald. Trump you lost the 2020 election can you. tell us that here today Senator what I. can tell you is I will never play. politics you're trying to engage me in a. gotcha I. won't Bondi repeatedly dodged questions. about whether she agreed with Donald.

Trump's false claim that the 2020. election was stolen and whether she. would support his plan to Pardon January. 6 riers are the felons convicted of. breaking into the capital on January 6. hostages or Patriots as President elect. Trump has said repeatedly do you agree. with his. characterization of the Fel that I refer. to I am not familiar with that statement. Senator I just familiarized you with. that statement do you agree with that.

statement I'm not familiar with it. Senator Bondi is expected to be. confirmed in the coming. days and today an oligarchy is taking. shape in America of extreme wealth power. and influence that literally threatens. our entire democracy our basic rights. and freedoms and a fair shot for. everyone to get ahead speaking to the. American public for the final time. before departing office on Monday.

President Joe Biden described what he. said for his gravest concerns before. receding into Life as a private citizen. Americans are being buried under an. avalanche of misinformation and. disinformation enableing the abuse of. power thee in a clear rebuke of meta's. decision to end its factchecking program. Biden warned of a quote Tech industrial. complex that he said is over whing. Americans and called the country to.

quote hold social media platforms. [Music]. accountable today's episode was produced. by Stella tan Alex Stern and mo zadii. with help from Michelle Banja it was. edited by Chris haxel Lisa chow and. Paige cowt contains original music by. Dian an Wong and Marian Lozano and was.

engineered by Alyssa Moxley our theme. music is by Jim brunberg and Ben Lanser. of wonderly special thanks to Adam. [Music]. rasken that's it for the daily I'm. Sabrina tavernes see you tomorrow. [Music].