48 Days Until the Midterms: Is a Blue Wave Coming?

From The New York Times, I'm Michael. Barbaro. This is The Daily. With fewer [music] than 50 days until. the midterm elections, a major new poll. from The Times [music]. suggests that Democrats have a real shot. at winning control of both chambers of. Congress as an unpopular president. insists [music]. on making the election all about. himself. And yet, serious obstacles remain in the.

Democrats' way, including a. half-billion-dollar. financial [music] advantage for. Republicans. Today, I talk about all of that with three of. my colleagues, >> [music]. >> national political correspondent Shane. Goldmacher, White House reporter Maggie. Haberman, >> [music]. >> and chief political analyst Nate Cohn. It's. >> [music]. >> Wednesday, September 16th.

Hey everybody. >> Hello. >> Hi. >> Hello. >> Maggie, Nate, Shane, welcome to the. first midterm election roundtable for. the general election. >> We really like to slice the salami. really thin when it comes to the. superlatives for these roundtables. >> the assistant to the assistant regional. manager. >> Exactly. That's what this roundtable is. The first midterm election roundtable. for the general. By which I mean,

the primaries are over, both parties. have picked all their nominees, and now. in 48. days to be exact, control of the US. House and the US Senate will be. determined in hundreds of elections. across the country, which is going to be the subject of our. conversation today. Nate, I want to begin with you. >> Please. >> because as we sit here on Tuesday, The. Times just within the past few hours. released a major new poll about these. midterm elections. Top line, what did.

you all find? >> Top line, we found Democrats well. positioned to make major gains this. fall. They led Republicans by nearly. nine points in the race for Congress. And that's wave territory, which is the. kind of election where one party sweeps. the other party out of the most. competitive states and districts. >> When's the last time we had a wave. election with the kind of numbers that. this poll found? Nine points up for.

Democrats. >> It's almost exactly the same as the. Democratic margin from 2018, Trump's. first midterm election. And it's larger. than. other recent wave elections in recent. decades like 1994, 2006, or 2010. >> 1994, just as a reminder, was the year. that Republicans swept into office. Newt. Gingrich became House Speaker, a huge. historical moment for Republicans. In. 2018, a huge historical victory for. Democrats. >> That's right. Now, how this big national. advantage translates into control of the.

House and the Senate is a little more. complicated, but you would absolutely. say that the Democrats are favored to. take the House, and they would have a. real chance to take the Senate as well. Where they have a real uphill climb, but. with this kind of national advantage, they would have a a serious chance to. put the red states they need into play. >> Okay, Shane and Maggie, please react to. this pretty important new development in. the way we think about these midterms. Shane, you go first. >> I mean I just sit with this poll for a. second, which just has so many bad data. points both for Donald Trump and for the.

Republican Party. We asked a series of. questions, which party do you see as. more elitist, more extreme, more. corrupt? All are bad for Republicans, and I think the elitist one is a. particularly rough one. This is a term. that the Republican Party has used to. cast the Democrats as outside the. mainstream. And the idea that voters see. the Republican Party under Donald Trump. right now as more elitist. >> Can you translate that? Why elitist? >> It's tied into the ballroom potentially. It's tied into the lack of empathy for.

people's cost concerns. The single worst. finding in this poll is cost of living. issues. Trump was at I think 28% support. on the most important issue for most. voters. Like if you had to pick an issue. to be really bad on, don't pick the one. people care most about. >> Yeah. >> And so this is the challenge that Trump. is facing right now. And he seems. disconnected from that reality of how. voters are perceiving him. >> This poll Matt, am I right to say. suggests the fundamental appeal of this.

president over the past many years. is faded? Is maybe totally faded? Nationally? >> Yeah, I don't know that you ever want to. say totally with him because obviously. he's pretty regenerative and I think we. don't always know how everybody is. experiencing everything, but there's no. question that his actions in office, whether it is the ballroom, whether it. is the war, there's no question he is. dragging his party down. What's. interesting too to me about that cost of. living number the chain was talking. about is number one, it is at least from.

what I know in my reporting, what. Jonathan Swan, our colleague and I know, is it's reflected in their own polling, in the Trump world's polling. So despite. the fact well they certainly do and it's. not as if they're not telling the. president. He just often hears what he. wants to hear as anybody who has worked. for him will tell you. But the other. piece that is just striking, he's. certainly not the first president to. misread his mandate. Joe Biden did that. too and it cost Joe Biden. This is. costing Trump right now. The mandate was. not go take us to war even though you.

said you wouldn't and do a lot of legacy. projects for yourself in the form of. physical structures and oh and PS make a. lot of money for yourself and your. family. >> Mhm. >> Voters can see it. >> And yet. I submit to this table. despite the president being a clear. albatross on his entire party. Just a. few days ago at what was billed a. midterm convention, perhaps the very. first in history, this is what President Trump said. >> So, on election day, November 3rd, you.

got to do me a favor. You got to get out. and vote and you're going to pretend I'm. on the ballot because in a way I am on. the ballot. >> He asks Republicans, candidates, voters. to pretend he's on the ballot, intentionally making this midterm all. about him. And then he goes even. further. >> PLEASE RAISE YOUR RIGHT HAND. I PLEDGE. TO THE GREATEST PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY.

OF THE UNITED States. that LOVES US SO MUCH HE CAN'T EVEN. BREATHE. >> The president asks this crowd to make a. pledge. to him, not to the country, not even to. the Republican Party, to him. >> And we are going to vote on November 3rd. or we are GOING TO VOTE BEFORE THAT. >> And Maggie, what strikes me is I think.

it was our colleague Lisa Lerer who once. said that when a president is this. unpopular, they usually find a way to. let members of their own party in. Congress distance themselves from the. president. But here is Trump basically. saying, "Here's a bottle of superglue. I. am gluing you all to me." That is the. midterm theme. That's genuinely. politically. counterintuitive. Well, there are some. low-propensity voters who do only turn. out to support Trump historically in the.

three elections that he was on the. ballot, and that is who they are going. for. That is who his advisers are hoping. they can juice turnout among to offset. other losses. And given how Trump has. behaved about his party, I don't know. how many other choices they have. Now, you can argue that Trump shouldn't have. behaved that way about his party in the. first place, but this is where they are. >> Nate, does Maggie write that this might. be the Republican Party's best strategy. under Trump? Keep making it about a. president who's deeply unpopular? >> They don't have many cards to play.

Fundamentally, they have to try and keep. Republican-leaning voters on board. >> Mhm. >> When the Democrats are up eight and a. half points in the generic ballot, that. means that the races that are tied are. districts in states that voted for Trump. by 10. So, >> I want to explain that cuz I think that. math gets tricky for people. You're. saying there are plenty of places in the. country where Trump won the presidency. by something like 10 points in 2024. That would, under normal circumstances, make you think that place is completely. out of Democrats' reach. You're saying. when Democrats just generically are up.

something like 9%, that wipes out that. otherwise intimidating lead and makes. any district, whether it's in the House. or maybe even the Senate, somehow. competitive. >> Exactly. So, if they want to hold down. their losses, it is plausible that in a. Trump plus 10 district or state, trying. to rally the Republican base either by. trying to rejuvenate people's personal. loyalties to the president or by casting. the Democrats as too far to the left is. a. relatively reasonable strategy to hold.

down those worst-case losses in red. states and districts, and that is. especially important in the Senate. For. the Democrats to take the Senate, they. must win at least two states that Trump. won by at least 11 points. >> Which is somewhat conceivable. >> Which is conceivable given this national. environment and given that in many of. these states the Democrats have strong. candidates. But what that means is that if the. Republicans can just keep their focus on. board, they can hold down the worst-case. scenario here. And talking about the. president may not be the worst way to do. that, or at the very least I can imagine.

it as part of a strategy to do that. >> Shane, I want to talk more about the. Senate map in particular and the. potential path for Democrats since this. is what this poll suggests is now. conceivable. to possibly winning back the United. States Senate and therefore having. control of all of Congress. What does. that potential victory look like in. November? >> Right now the Democrats would have to. flip four Senate seats that are.

currently held by Republicans and hold. their three most vulnerable seats. Right. now two states that are generally more. battlegrounds, Maine held by Susan. Collins and North Carolina which a. Republican is retiring in, these are. battleground states the Democrats think. they have a pretty good chance and. they're favored in the polls to flip. >> Favored in the polls in both those. places. >> In both of those places and then you get. into this trickier territory that Nate. has alluded to which is a series of. states that Trump won by 10, 12, 13. percentage points. We're talking about.

places like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas. and that is actually where the main. battleground is right now and so we. started the cycle where the Democrats. were dreaming of competing in enough. states to even have a chance. mathematically at getting a majority and. now that majority is very clearly being. fought over and it's being fought over. in red territory and for Donald Trump I. think there's an emotional response that. every problem that the Republican Party. faces.

can be solved with more Donald Trump. But there's not a non-intellectual. argument for that too, which is these. are red areas where you actually can win. if everybody puts on their partisan red. jersey. And for Trump their operation is like. well at least we got to get our people. out and we have seen that Donald Trump. can get Republican voters out. but whether he can do it when he's not. on the ballot nationally, it's going to. be really hard and at the same time he's. turned off so many independent voters. and Republicans are less enthusiastic. about this election. So the vice is.

they're losing independence and their. base is depressed. >> Well, you also just raised an important. point, which is that we have been. hearing since January from Trump's top. advisers that he is about to begin next. week a, you know, he's going to go. everywhere. >> like political. >> Yeah, exactly. And that really has not. come to pass. And so he has done. sporadic events. He has appeared in in. battleground states here and there. But. often these events are tacked on to. other trips that he's doing and he gives.

the same speech in every single context. And so. he could be doing more. There are a lot. of reasons why he's not traveling in. general, one of which is that he doesn't. want to anymore and he has made that. pretty clear to advisers. He also is. visibly an 80-year-old man in a way that. he was not before. And there are real. security risks for him. That's serious. But. all of this is to say that he's not. doing the barnstorming that we keep. hearing he is going to do and certainly. that I think Republicans.

>> feel like he needs to. >> Right. So friends, I want to bring all. this together and ground it in a. particular. Senate race. And I'm going to suggest we. go to Texas because Texas is a place. to go to Nate's point earlier that once. seemed totally off the map for. Democrats. Trump won Texas in 2024, I. think by 12. >> 14. >> 14 points. Not a place that Democrats. rightfully have really much of a chance. and yet it's quite competitive between.

the Democrat James Talarico, the Senate. nominee, and the Republican Ken Paxton. And I'm wondering how much it has to do. with everything this poll has found. >> I mean, I think for Democrats to win. somewhere like Texas, it has to be all. of the above. So, if Democrats are. favored by nine points in the. congressional races, well, that's not. enough to make up a 14-point gap in. Texas before. So, you need a good. political environment. You need a. potentially bad Republican candidate in.

Ken Paxton who's been impeached by his. own party, who has enough scandals that. even Republicans are frustrated with. him. And then you have a Democrat in. James Tower Rico who has been from the. very beginning trying to run to the. middle of the electorate. And so, the. polls that show him roughly tied or even. ahead have him crushing Ken Paxton among. independent voters. And so, the entire race for Republicans in Texas. and frankly across the country is can. you make James Tower Rico out to be a.

scary liberal who you don't want to. represent your red area. And that's what. you see on television. And so, the. Republicans are going to try to make the. race about him. And the Democrats want to make it about. your cost of living, your frustrations. with the country, your unhappiness with. the status quo. And in Texas, you're. going to blame Republicans, Trump, and. people in your own state. >> Nate, I know our poll was national, but. what did you glean. about the Texas Senate race from it? >> I thought there were two things in the. poll that made me want to see a Texas.

poll afterwards. >> Mhm. >> One Do you know anybody who could help. with that? >> [laughter]. >> Um. one was the demographics. I mean, Donald. Trump is very unpopular and Republicans. are doing poorly, but they are getting. clobbered among young and Latino voters. in this poll. I mean, Hispanic voters, the Democrats are up 43 points. nationwide. That's not just pre-2024. >> and with Latino voters? >> With Latino voters was 43 points. With. young voters it was almost 40. >> Wow. A group that went. disproportionately for Trump in 2020. >> Almost voted for Trump in 2020. The. Latino vote was a single-digit race.

according to the exit polls. So, this is. a huge swing. And there is no state, no. plausibly competitive state at least, where young and Hispanic voters will do. more to help Democrats than Texas. Wow. So, that's the first thing. The second. thing is we did something unusual in. this poll, which is that we didn't just. ask voters whether they would. generically favor the Democrats or. Republicans for Congress. But in the. states with Senate races, we gave them. the actual Senate ballot. Do you support. the actual Democratic candidate or the. actual Republican candidate in your. state?

In those races where the Republicans are. trying to defend their seats in the US. Senate, the Democrats are faring even. better when you give them the actual. named candidates, including in Texas. So, that's even scarier for Republicans, right? Because while Shane's correct. that on its own, a 9-point lead on the. generic ballot doesn't get you a. Democratic victory in a state that voted. for Trump by 14 points. If the Democrats. have nominated candidates capable of. doing even better than that, it's easy. to look at this national poll and see. how a state like Texas would be highly.

competitive or even Democratic tilting, as many recent polls suggest. >> Right. I I just want to say, for the. record, cuz I've been hosting this show. for 10 years, done a lot of politics, and I've done a lot of episodes where. we all get in a room and talk about. whether a Democrat could actually win in. Texas, and it doesn't happen. Period. It seems like this could. actually be the. election in which that happens. >> Maybe. >> [laughter]. >> I'll say yes. Sure. I will all say yes. >> I think this is the first time where I.

think if you just take the numbers on. its face, the Democrat would be. as likely or likelier to win. >> Well, I think in a nutshell, this is the. story of how Democrats could. theoretically take back the Senate. But, when we come back in just a moment, we're going to talk about all the ways. Democrats. could turn out to lose the Senate and be. much weaker than perhaps this poll. [music] suggests. So, we'll do that right after the break.

Maggie, can you take us to the break? >> We'll be right back. >> [music]. >> Nate, Maggie, Shane, welcome back. Beyond the difficulty of winning a bunch. of Senate seats in red states, no small. task under any circumstances, Democrats. have another set of challenges that I.

know Shane, you and Maggie have been. reporting on a lot, and one of them is. money. The other may be ideological, the. rise of Democratic Socialists within. the Democratic Party this campaign. season. I want to start with money. Shane, can you just remind me what the. money situation is for both parties. and why it seems to be the bigger. challenge for the Democrats despite the. momentum they have.

>> Yeah, I mean, when you talk to. Democratic strategists, probably the. number one concern that comes up right. now is money. That the Republican Party. has more money than the Democratic. Party. >> The RNC alone has $130 million more than. the DNC. And then the big thing is Trump. has a super PAC that has $400 million. >> talking about half a billion dollar. financial advantage for them. >> And we're not done because Elon Musk is. going to spend at least another $100. million. So you're at $600 million. And.

then those Republican super PACs have. another $100 million more. So you're. talking about could be close to a. billion dollars of an advantage for. Republicans. >> Holy cow. >> in these closing weeks. And so one of. the questions has been would Trump. actually spend this money? And he has. begun to spend this money. And notably. one of the first places he has spent is. in Texas to save that Senate seat. And. so in one day in the last week, something like $50 million of TV ads. were booked in Texas by Republicans.

And there has not been a national. Democratic counter. They're hoping that. small donors support Ted Howarico, but. $50 million is a lot of money. And. that's not just happening in Texas, it's. happening all over the country. >> we get to the use of this money in a. race like Texas, which I do want to come. back to, do you have a sense, Maggie, of. why the Republican financial advantage. is this mighty? I mean, traditionally, momentum in a political season. translates, I'm going to make up a word. here, into.

money-mentum for that same party. So, how do we explain this deficit of. polling momentum and voter enthusiasm. and dollars on the other side? >> Democrats have been struggling with. fundraising for quite some time. I don't. think that they have ever totally. recovered from the very end of the Biden. term, where a lot of donors were just. really, really angry. >> People don't like spending money and. finding out it didn't get. >> People don't like being told for 2 years. that all is well and then it very. visibly, through the magic of sight, was.

not. And then switching out the. candidate. Sorry, hat tip to friends, that's a a Ross Geller line. Um, the. magic of sight, not mine, but that is a. big piece of it. There were a lot of a. lot of Democratic donors who were just. like, "You know what? I don't want to do. this." Now, there are also a lot of. donors who are less ideological and more. business pragmatic, quote-unquote, as. they would call themselves. They have. companies that intersect with the. federal government and they donate to. both parties and they have seen little. interest in trying to cross.

the White House. You know, I could point. to Jeff Bezos or Mark Zuckerberg or. people who Democrats have relied on in. the past. >> They are seeing that there's. much more virtue in giving to the. president whose revenge is a given if. he's mad at you, than necessarily. spreading their bets as traditionally as. they might have across both parties. >> So, all of that has added to a massive. war chest that Trump has never took his. foot off the gas on. He started.

fundraising, I shouldn't say started, he kept up. fundraising literally the day after the. election. And there is so much money. slashing around the system that it. becomes its own kind of virtuous cycle. of virtuous being you know in quotes but. that really is the main reason why and. Democrats don't really have a great. message against Trump other than. >> fundraising a. >> right other than we're not Trump. >> Shane we started to get at this but. let's really dig in on how and how well. Republicans are spending this $600.

million more than Democrats have and. will it in any way blunt the nine point. advantage Democrats have. >> We don't fully know how they're spending. it because these ad reservations are. literally coming in day by day. What. we're seeing so far is they are trying. to shore up vulnerable Republicans. mostly and whether these ads and the. funding is going to be effective we'll. see. Money makes a huge difference in. elections it makes more of a difference. in elections where voters are paying. less attention. So a house race can be.

more effectual than a Senate race and so. it can help especially in the sort of. less visible races. Also when you talk. to Democrats the concern isn't this will. prevent them from flipping the house it. will hold down their margins of how many. seats they can compete in. >> Okay, let's turn to what Republicans. certainly hope ends up being another big. Democratic vulnerability which is this. summer of socialism we've covered it a. lot on the show the reality that. Democrats have elevated many Democratic. socialists and their allies to become.

nominees in the house and in the case of. Florida in the US Senate these. candidates have won races by as we've. discussed putting economic issues like. Medicare for all and taxing the rich at. the center of these candidacies and. Republicans have responded as they did. at the midterm convention by basically. saying you're all radicals you're all. socialists you're all communist as. President Trump likes to say. How is. that going Shane as a strategy? >> The best thing Republicans can try to do. is make this election about the.

Democrats because if people are thinking. about Trump and the Republican Party, swing voters, they're losing. And so. their goal is to scare voters, to make. them think, "Okay, well, you might not. like this Republican congressman who. votes with Donald Trump 95% of the time, but this potential Democrat who you. don't know, they might vote with the. Democratic Socialists." That's basically. their campaign in a nutshell. If you. just picked at random a house campaign. ad that's running right now from the. right, it's using the word socialist.

>> Uh I mean. >> Pick one. Yeah, go for it. >> I mean, the actual person who used to be. a Democratic Socialists member is well, Lawrence, a more left-wing Democrat in. Michigan. And the Republicans are. running ads against him right now saying. he's a Democratic Socialist, he's a. Socialist, he's going to bring in all. these things that are scary and that you. don't like here in Michigan. And so, they're running an ad against him. because he in fact was previously a. member of the Democratic Socialists, but. it doesn't matter, right? And now Abdul.

El-Sayed, even though he's not. >> He's not technically a Democratic. Socialist. >> You know, the entire message for the. right is don't elect these Democrats, they're scary liberals. >> Right. So, in other words, Republicans, because of the DSA dynamic, get to. pursue a strategy that's not a pitch for. why you should vote necessarily for. them, but why you should not vote for. the Democrats. I'm really curious, Nate, if the polling that we have done at the. Times tells us whether there's actually. potency. in the general electorate.

to use a strategy of making the. Democrats all socialists. >> Well, I think that the poll provides. plenty of evidence that this is like the. best card Republicans can play. And it also provides evidence that the. successes of progressives and socialists. this summer has taken at least some toll. on the Democratic Party's standing for. some number of voters. In the poll, we. asked people whether they think the. Democratic Party is too far to the left. 50% of people said yes. That was up from 46% in May. So, that. language too far implies that it's not.

to their liking, right? Now, the. Democrats still had a big lead in the. poll. So, it's possible the Democrats. are would be up by 10 if it weren't for. the advances of the socialists and the. progressives this summer, but it's not. necessarily so great of a weight that it. prevents them from taking advantage of. this environment. And it's worth noting. that this is a midterm. And in general, midterms tend to be referendums on the. party in power. The actions of the. president and the governing party loom. much more powerfully in the minds of. voters than the theoretical things that. Democrats might do. Immigration is such.

a great example. It was a terrible issue. for Democrats during the Biden years cuz. Biden opened the border and no one was. concerned at that time at the. possibility of the excesses. of what a Trump administration might do. Now, it's all flipped around. Now, people are concerned about the conduct. of ICE. And yeah, they may remember that. the Democrats weren't great at. immigration. But in our poll, the. Democrats have a big lead on. immigration. That's really interesting. And so, the Democrats have serious. problems. But even if their problems. were worse than the Republicans, voters. are going to be more focused on what's. going on with the president. The.

theoretical sins of future Democratic. socialist lawmakers are no match for. what voters see as the already committed. sins of. President Trump. Now, that said, in the. races where the Democrats really have. nominated, say a Democratic socialist or. a candidate who's DSA and friends like. Abdul El Sayed, there's plenty of. historic precedent for the wrong. candidate really seriously. underperforming even in a wave. So, it's. not out of the question that there could. be these isolated races where the. Democrats do pay a serious penalty. >> Maggie, >> There's one aspect too, and I don't want. to dwell on this, but that we haven't.

talked about, which is that I mean, it is not unusual that you would see a. party in power play on fear. We have. seen that in midterms over and over and. over. But there is a factor now that I. don't know that we can properly account. for both in terms of polling and how. effective it will be or whether it will. bring up backlash, but the broad scale. Islamophobia is coupled with the DSA. message. They really. >> talking about the Michigan Senate race. >> I'm not only talking about the Michigan.

Senate race because part of what I mean, yes, in terms of the map, I am, but in. terms of the avatar aspect where one. party uses a candidate or a person or an. official in the opposing party as a. stand-in, you've seen that was Our. Revolution Mondani, and that came up. huge around the 25th anniversary of the. September 11th terrorist attacks. Mondani who was 9 years old when they. happened, but he happens to be Muslim, right? But yes, it is against El Sayed. in Michigan, who it could be the. Democratic nominee, who it could be most. effective against what used to be a dog.

whistle is now beyond a bullhorn. It is. coming from the president on down. throughout his party in a way that we. just haven't seen before, and I don't properly know how to account. for that. Again, I don't want to linger. on that too much, but I think we'd be. remiss if we didn't mention it in terms. of the messaging they're doing because. it was prominent at the convention. >> I'm really glad you mentioned that, Maggie, because as you said, it could in. theory become a sleeper issue for. Republicans. I want to mention my own. curiosity about a different sleeper. issue, and that is data centers and AI.

Here on the show over the past few days, we have done nothing but talk about the. sudden crisis in the AI industry, its. leaders publicly declaring that things. are moving too fast, that they are. scared. We know in many districts around. the country, especially in the house. districts, where there's a data center, there is some group of unhappy. Americans. Could this be a sleeper issue. in these midterms that we over time look. back and recognize potentially as. important after the fact?

>> It's certainly possible, and it's a. fast-moving issue. Over just the last 2. months, I feel like this has gone from. being almost irrelevant to now being a. major topic of national conversation. So, over and over the next 2 months, I. think we have every reason to expect. that to continue. As of right now, I don't think our poll. offered much reason to think that this. is one of the most important issues. Why. not? Well, I maybe the most striking. thing to me was how many voters don't. even know which party they prefer on the. issue. >> So, the parties don't have an identity. around this yet. >> Let me put it this way. This issue is.

not yet ripe for partisan politics. Everyone is sort of deciding where they. want to be positioned, let alone where. they then fit with respect to the. parties on that. There I I again I. expect this to change and it is changing. and there could be individual races. where candidates make this an issue or. the local circumstances make it an issue. in ways that make us look back on it and. say, "Oh, in X race, that was really. big." But at a national level right now, this is way beneath the classical. issues. >> Okay, you're saying Michael, hold your. horses. Come back to me in a few years.

when. >> Not even maybe not even until December. We we can talk about it in 2 weeks. potentially, you know, it's really I. mean when the poll was began, we weren't. talking about the safety issues, for. instance. So, >> Need I mean, one of the things in the. poll was we asked, you know, what are. the most important issues to you and. artificial intelligence data centers. barely ranked. But there is a tension between that and. what you see the campaigns putting in. ads. These are in ads all over the. country and as you're saying, it is. scrambled. It's not just Democrats.

running on data centers or against data. centers. It's Republicans. It's. Democrats flipping their position and. then then running tough on data center. ads like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. who had embraced as the biggest. investment ever just last year and then. now is running my Republican opponent is. pro data center, I'm anti data center. and the inverse in Texas where the. governor is anti data center now and. he's been pro data center. >> So, the politics around this all are. basically so responsive and whiplashy. that it's totally confusing. >> Voters are angry and both parties are. like trying to figure out a way to take.

advantage. >> Maggie, I just want to end with this. question. Do you think President Trump. has wrapped his head around. the very real possibility that we we. established in this conversation that he. loses control of not just one branch of. Congress, but potentially all of. Congress. Has he processed that? And. does he have a plan for that? As best you can tell. >> I believe that he is aware that this is. a possibility. I think that he doesn't. think that it's a possibility that. impacts him the way it can impact the.

rest of his government. Most of his. advisors will be very candid privately. that it will be a disaster. It will mean. a total slowdown of whatever they're. hoping to do in terms of an agenda going. forward. They know it will mean lots of. investigations coming from certainly. House Democrats, likely Senate Democrats. as well. >> Standoffs over subpoenas. >> Correct. Here's the asterisk there. Trump is operating under a presidential. immunity ruling from the Supreme Court. that came in 2024. He knows that he is. not facing federal criminal prosecution. going forward. He has said, and Jonathan.

and I have reported this, that he is. going to pardon any number of people who. came within a certain radius of the Oval. Office. >> them from congressional investigation. >> To protect them from anything. It is It. is a pardon. And one thing would be. contempt of Congress. So, I don't think we know what it looks like. when an entire government does not. respond to subpoenas. We have not seen. that before. And the only recourse that. Congress has is to send contempt of. Congress referrals to Attorney General.

and former Trump personal lawyer Todd. Blanche. So, I don't think those are. going to go the way of long-term. criminal prosecutions. So, it will be a mess, but the contours. of that mess I think are an open. question. And either way, they don't. impact Trump directly the way they might. others. >> Right. In terms of Trump's own thinking. of this, again, I don't think he looks that far. down the road, generally speaking. He is. looking at the projects he wants to get. done for himself. I realize we keep. coming back to that, but it's really, really true. The Arc de Trump, as it's.

being called, the ballroom. So, that's. the best I can give you. >> I just wanted to ask a question of you. in in that which is like. when I'm watching Trump's behavior. around the midterms from afar, it seems. like. he doesn't see this midterm as critical. to his legacy. He doesn't. That his legacy is set and that the. legacy is less whether Republicans keep. control of the House and Senate and more. if he finishes these projects. >> The party's legacy in his mind is not. his legacy. That is absolutely true.

These building projects are tangible and. something that people can see and that. he anticipates his name won't be taken. off of as his name was taken off of. buildings in 2016 and after. Yes, you are correct. Those are his. legacy. His other legacy is how much. money he has made and how much richer he. is going to be and. they're not going to be able to take. that away from him. >> Mhm. >> Nate, I'm going to give you the final. word. >> I completely agree with what they just. mentioned about the way the relationship. between the White House and the Congress.

is about to change. Stepping even. farther back, I think that with this election and in. the final two months of this election, we are starting to turn a page in. American politics. It's going to be a. long time until the page turns all the. way, but we've already talked about some. things that are. beginning to bubble up that are going to. really alter the basic political. conflict that we've had in this country. for the last 10 years. AI is one example. of that. And we're also about to have a. presidential primary which will begin. essentially when this midterm election. ends that will not include Donald Trump.

>> Mhm. >> And that is a page starting to. >> a page that's starting to be changed. >> [music]. >> And the next page is going to look. pretty different when you put all those. factors together. And we're just now beginning to talk. about those issues and I don't know what. it's going to look like, but it's going. to be pretty different. >> Okay. Well, with that, >> [music]. >> Nate, Maggie, Shane, thank you for your time. >> Thanks for having me. >> Thank you, Michael.

>> [music]. >> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. [music]. On Tuesday, President Trump lashed out. at the Supreme Court for blocking his. efforts to restrict voting by mail, focusing his ire [music] on the three. justices that he appointed to the court, Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and.

Neil Gorsuch, >> [music]. >> all of whom voted against Trump in the. case. In a social media post, Trump wrote, "Quote, >> [music]. >> these are not the people I interviewed. to serve on the US Supreme Court. >> [music]. >> They are merely a shell of their. original selves.". Meanwhile, in another [music] legal defeat for the. president, a federal judge has ruled. that the Kennedy Center for Performing. Arts in Washington. cannot [music] honor Trump with an.

inscription on the building's exterior, as Trump [music] has repeatedly. demanded. "Such an inscription," the judge said, "would require permission [music] from. Congress, which authorized the Kennedy. Center's creation and its original. dedication to President Kennedy [music]. in 1964.". In response to the ruling, the Kennedy. Center's board voted to shut down the. center [music]. for 2 years of renovations, while Trump. himself threatened to block the money or.

required for those renovations. Today's episode was produced [music] by. Caitlin O'Keefe and Ricky Navezky, with. help from Diana Wynn, Lexi Diao, and. Eric Krupke. It was [music] edited by Rachel Quester, contains music by Rowan Nvesto, Dan. [music] Powell, and Marion Lozano, and. was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly.

>> [music]. >> That's. >> [music]. >> it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.