Rattner: Voters who 'STAYED HOME' decided the midterms

OKAY, LET'S PUT THIS ALL INTO CONTEXT. THIS WAS A BIG WIN AND A THAT IS A LONG. TIME COMING. I HAVE A FEW THINGS TO SHOW YOU. THAT HOPEFULLY PEOPLE HAVEN'T. THOUGHT ABOUT OR SEEN EXACTLY IN. THIS FORM BEFORE BECAUSE I KNOW. THERE'S OBVIOUSLY BEEN A LOT. ABOUT THIS ELECTION TO SAY THE. LEAST, BUT LET'S DO SOME HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE. FIRST ON USING THE HOUSE SIDE AS A MEASURE. YOU CAN SEE THAT GOING ALL THE. WAY BACK TO 1948 IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD, THE DEMOCRATS KEPT a majority all the way. through until 1994, even through Nixon,

through Ford, through Reagan, through Bush and so forth. They kept a majority. Now admittedly, there were a fair number of. Southern Democrats, particularly in this earlier period. But it's still quite an extraordinary time. for Democratic rule. Then you had Bill Clinton and in 1994, as Joe will well remember, the Republicans flipped the IT'S A. COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. THIS IS THE LAST TWO MIDTERMS,

MIDTERMS, MIDTERM AND IN THE LAST ELECTION OF BUSH 43, THE WAR. YOU HAD 2018 WHEN TRUMP WON, SORT OF HIT THE ROCKS BUT OTHERWISE. IT'S ESSENTIALLY BEEN A REPUBLICAN. STORY FOR ALL THIS PERIOD. AND THIS 13 .6 AND THE POST-WATERGATE ERA, RIGHT AFTER NIXON RESIGNED. SO LET'S LOOK AT WHO DIDN'T SHOW UP BECAUSE THERE IS A. LOT OF.

REPORTING ON THE EARLY VOTING AND HOW. SUCCESSFUL THAT WAS FOR DEMOCRATS. BUT IT APPEARS SOME TRUMP VOTERS MIGHT HAVE. STAYED HOME. YEAH, WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THAT THIS. ELECTION WAS DECIDED BY THE VOTERS WHO STAYED HOME. VOTERS WHO ACTUALLY VOTED. AND SO THIS CHART SHOWS YOU, SO. IF YOU TAKE THE HARRIS VOTERS, 75 MILLION OF THEM BACK TWO YEARS AGO, ALL OF THESE FOLKS VOTED FOR THEY ARE DEMOCRATS. VIRTUALLY NONE OF THEM VOTED FOR. REPUBLICANS BUT A HUNK OF THEM STAY AT HOME.

WHEN YOU LOOK AND THIS IS THIS IS TYPICAL, OF COURSE, IN MIDTERMS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT TRUMP VOTERS, YOU CAN SEE AGAIN VERY FEW OF THEM, A FEW MORE BUT NOT A HUGE NUMBER DEFECTED TO THE. DEMOCRATS SO IT. WAS NOT IT'S NOT A QUESTION OF TRUMP. VOTERS GOING TO THE DEMOCRATS. BUT A MUCH LARGER SHARE OF THE. TRUMP VOTERS STAY AT HOME, JUST DIDN'T VOTE COMPARED TO THE. HARRIS VOTERS. 25 MILLION STAY AT HOME, STATE HOME, 17 MILLION STATE HOME. AND SO THAT'S REALLY WHAT DECIDED THESE. ELECTIONS.

STEVE, LET'S TALK MONEY IN YOUR NEXT CHART. WE'VE BEEN TALKING THE LAST WEEK OR SO HOW ELON MUSK IN. PARTICULAR BASICALLY LIT HALF A BILLION DOLLARS ON. FIRE. INCLUDING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILLION IN THE STATE OF. TEXAS. A LOT OF MONEY RAISED, A LOT OF MONEY SPENT BUT. DIDN'T HAVE MUCH. OF AN IMPACT FOR REPUBLICANS. I THINK THIS ELECTION PROVES IT AS MUCH. AS ANY I'VE SEEN. SO THESE ARE THE LARGEST GIVERS TO SUPERPACS, THESE ARE THE.

THESE PACKS INCLUDED ELON MUSK AND SO FORTH. HE GAVE A LOT MORE MONEY THROUGH SOME. OF THESE OTHER PACKS. YOU CAN SEE HERE THAT IN GENERAL. THE REPUBLICANS DID MUCH. THE DEMOCRATS ARE MUCH BETTER. THAN THE DEMOCRATS IN TERMS OF. MONEY RAISED. ROUGHLY TWICE AS MUCH, 1 .3. BILLION FOR THE REPUBLICANS AS FOR DEMOCRATS. THESE ARE THE TWO PACKS PACKS ALIGNED WITH THE. SENATE. DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP AND HOUSE. LEADERSHIP. SO THERE WERE REALLY NO OUTSIDE. DEMOCRATIC PACKS OF HUGE SIZE TO. COMPETE WITH THEM, BUT THIS LIGHT PINK IS ARE.

ALL THE. THEY WON A COUPLE OF RACES THAT. MONEY WAS SPENT ON AND LOST. THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THEY WON A COUPLE. OF RACES. SO ALL THIS MONEY, AS YOU SAY, WAS BURNED BECAUSE THEY HE DIDN'T WIN. ANY RACES FOR ALL THAT MONEY. NEXT CHART. WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT WE'LL SEE THAT NEXT, STEVE. LET'S GO TO THE NEXT CHART. OKAY. DO YOU WANT TO TAKE A LOOK WE'LL LOOK. AT SMALL DONORS. THERE YOU GO.

SO LET'S TALK ABOUT WHO VOTED FOR WHOM. THIS IS TEXAS AND THESE ARE WHAT. WE CALL HEAT WHITE MAPS, AND SO WE CAN LOOK AT THE SHARE OF. RESIDENTS WHO ARE NON-HISPANIC WHITE. SO THESE ARE THE WHITER PARTS OF TEXAS. THESE ARE THE PARTS OF TEXAS WITH MANY MORE. HISPANICS. THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BACHELOR'S DEGREES, THE MORE EDUCATED. THESE ARE THE LESS EDUCATED. SO WHAT YOU CAN SEE WITH PRESIDENT HARRIS IS. BASICALLY SHE GOT WIPED OUT IN TEXAS, RIGHT? ALL OF THESE ARE REPUBLICAN AREAS. THAT SHE LOST BY MORE THAN 50%.

SHE ONLY WON THIS LITTLE CORNER BY A LITTLE BIT. MORE THAN. SHE WAS IN THE REST OF TEXAS WENT RED. WHEN YOU LOOK AT TALERICO, LOOK WHAT HE DID TO THE MAP. So he took all of these areas that were, as we well know, heavily Hispanic, and they all came home. And they voted even the most educated, even the less educated, essentially TALA RICO MOVED THAT BLUE. LINE ALL THE WAY OVER HERE, YES,

THE MORE WHITE COUNTIES STAYED MORE TRUE. TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, BUT EVEN THERE HE MADE SOME THEM INROADS. LOOK AT THE LAST CHART. GO AHEAD. SO SCOTT COLUMN WHO YOU'VE OBVIOUSLY JUST BEEN. talking about for a long time. Let's see what he did in Mississippi. So over here is, again, President Harris. And you can see that she had a reasonable. performance in the REALLY, SHE WAS IN THE AREAS THAT WERE MORE MINORITY,

MORE BLACK IN THE CASE OF MISSISSIPPI. AND HER BLACK LINE, SO TO SPEAK, WAS ALL THE WAY over here. When you look over here at the more white counties, she got again completely wiped out. really all the way. down to counties that were just 40 % white. When you look at that column, you can see again the dramatic switch. in this map and particularly. in where he moved the black line to. So counties that had more blacks, more non-whites, obviously he did very,

very well. He pushed back even into counties that are. more white and did reasonably well there. But here's kind of what's interesting. Even in counties that were almost. completely white among people. who were highly educated, he actually got a majority. And so he just changed the map dramatically. And so he just changed the map dramatically. Wow. Steve Ratner, thank you very much for. bringing. in your charts this morning. We appreciate it.