🚨Trump CAN’T HIDE THIS Anymore!!

Great work, Donald. Grocery prices. rising, electricity prices rising, medical care prices rising, rent rising, airfares, restaurant prices all rising, gas prices the highest they've ever been. during a midterm elections. Great. freaking work, Donald. What an utter. disaster. I mean, we got the inflation. report earlier today. the Trump regime. covering up the yearover-year inflation. numbers, saying we can't report them. because of the government shutdown last.

year. What are you talking about? We. know that inflation came in hotter than. expected,4%. month over month. But if you just add. the year-over-year number, and don't. close your eyes or cover your ears, you. know, inflation's over 4%. year-over-year, about 4.1%. year-over-year. And just do the basic. math. I mean, we're talking about the. October inflation report, which we're. reading in November. So, let's say you. add the November inflation report, you. add the December inflation report that's.

coming, and let's just say we're talking. about another 4% in November, another 4%. in December, you add 8% to that, we're. talking about 5% inflation year overyear. by 2027. And we can see that continue to. rise all throughout 2027. I mean, we. could be talking about 7% inflation by. the end of 2027. So, the Fed needs to. intervene immediately yet again. And at. the next Fed meeting, what do we expect.

to happen? They're going to raise the. interest rates. What do you think. they'll raise it? Well, at least 25. basis points. Perhaps 50 basis points. Perhaps multiple 25 basis point raises. And just think about this. If Donald. Trump did nothing at all, if he just. took the economy that Biden gave him and. just let it run on autopilot, I mean, Trump could have went golfing, done. absolutely nothing, you know what we. would be talking about? We would be. talking about multiple interest rate. cuts, three, four, maybe more interest.

rate cuts. Mortgage rates would be down. We would have Treasury bond yields at. normal rates, very steady, very stable. But instead, Donald Trump did tariffs. against the world, catastrophic war in. Iran, and everything economists said was. going to happen, it's happening. And so. what? You think you're going to trick us. by not showing the year-over-year. numbers? No, we can figure it out. And. by the way, what have we been also. talking about? Not just CPI, the. consumer price index. We've been talking.

about the PPI, wholesale inflation, producer price index, where we're. seeing, okay, what's the uh producers. actually paying? And that number, what? That number was hitting 6%, 6 1/2%, 7, that number has been going up crazy. also. And the CPI trails that number. This is a big deal, folks. It's deeply. problematic. And this is what the voters. rebuke. The voters repudiated. This is a. bunch of nonsense. Tariffs against the. world, catastrophic war. Stop it. Stop. it. I want to bring in right now Midas.

Touch chief economist who also is the. co-founder of Platypus Economics Justin. Wolfers. Subscribe to Justin Wolfer's. YouTube channel. Let's bring in the. Wolfers. The American economy continues to. surprise me. In fact, today delight me. The latest jobs numbers are here and. they're a whole lot stronger than. forecasters expected. When you look at. October job growth plus revisions over. the past few months, the 3-month average. is 137,000 jobs added per month. Now,

you might be asking, is that a lot? Where are all these jobs? Who's getting. them? And what's going on with my pay. packet? We're going to unpack all of. that and we're going to have fun along. the way. I'm Justin Wolfers. I'm a. professor of economics and this is the. Midas Touch Network. Let's get into it. The latest jobs numbers just dropped. And wow, it adds another piece to an. action-packed week. And really, what a. week it was. We had an enormous election. on Tuesday that became clear. The result.

became clear on Wednesday and then an. enormous market selloff which added to a. whole lot of gloom on Thursday. And then. we wake up on Friday and discover that. in fact the US economy has been doing. far better than anyone had understood. Okay, let's start with a big number, which is what happened to non-farm. payoffs? That is, how many jobs did we. create in October? The answer is. 165,000. So, first of all, on its own terms, let. me just tell you that's a number I'm. going to call downright strong. If.

that's what the US economy continues to. do, we're in for a pretty good ride. Secondly, the news here for folks who. are on Wall Street is what does this. look like relative to what they expected. to happen? Well, they'd expected jobs. growth of 60,000. We got 165,000. That's a whole lot better. That's why. folks there are definitely surprised by. this number, but it's led them to think. that the economy is doing better than. they had feared. And then third, the. most important habit. Anytime any of us.

get new numbers, the question we want to. ask ourselves is, how does that change. our understanding of the world? How does. it change the narrative? And look, I'm. going to tell you, through much of 2025, I thought jobs growth was pretty weak. Truth is, it was. Then through the first. part of 2026, it was pretty hard to. read. But now, we've had three pretty. strong numbers in a row. And so, you. might think it's time to believe that. maybe this is the little engine that.

could that yes, uh, job growth slowed. Yes, it got quite uncomfortable for a. while there, but maybe we're seeing the. other side of that. Let me share with you an essential part. of that story. It's not just what. happened this month. Also, when the. October numbers come come out, we get. revisions as the uh statistical agencies. tell us what happened in August and. September with a little more resolution. And what they've discovered is that uh. August was revised up from up by 53,000.

jobs. We created 53 more thousand. thousand more jobs than we thought we. had. And that number now looks very. strong for August. plus 186,000 jobs. September had been Yeah. So, so, but. then we've revised that up 39,000 jobs. to 60,000 jobs. So, now we've got three. pretty strong months in a row. Partly. due to revisions, partly due to news. from October and things are looking. good. Look, I know it feels. uncomfortable when we talk about. revisions. Uh, wouldn't it be good if we.

always learned the truth right away on. the first set of numbers? But sometimes. businesses are just slow to send in. their numbers. And when that happens, we. get revisions. And in this case, the. revisions are telling us a somewhat. stronger story. Look, uh, one way of. thinking about the jobs report is you. can think of it as three separate. surveys. There's what happened in. October. Well, it turns out October was. pretty strong. There's the new reports. we got from past months for August and. September. That's the revisions. They. were also strong. And then both of those.

are numbers that come from what's called. the firm survey where they ask a bunch. of businesses how many people they're. paying. A different way of measuring. measuring employment is to go to a bunch. of people and ask them if they've got. jobs. That's called the household. survey. And that actually shows. spectacular growth over the past few. months. And so this is just another. piece of confirmatory evidence that what. we're seeing here probably is real. I. had been worried over recent months that. the household survey looked a whole lot. weaker than the payroll survey. I also. warned at the time that usually the.

payroll survey turns out to be right, but still I'm paid to worry. So I did. the worrying. Well, it turns out the gap. between the two has narrowed. dramatically. And it's narrowed partly. because the household survey is starting. to suggest that yeah, the economy, we. really are finding more jobs out there. And so, while we're talking about the. household survey, that's where we get. the unemployment rate from. The. unemployment rate this month is 4.1%. That's down a tick from 4.2%. And this. is something we've been talking about. recently. If we keep jobs growth at.

these sorts of numbers, the unemployment. rate is going to continue to fall. Now, some of you have longer memories. You. remember back in the day when we get. jobs growth each month of 200,000 or. 250,000 and and what we're talking about. in October is a whole lot smaller and. weaker than that. But I want you to. realize back then the US had fairly. robust population growth supported by. immigration. The Trump administration. has basically stopped immigration in its. tracks, which means ours is no longer a.

growing country. When we don't have a. growing country, then we don't need to. create as many jobs each month for the. growing number of Americans. And so. that's why you can see these numbers, which you can see I'm excited about, but. they're not as exciting as they used to. be. Well, that's because the baseline. that we're thinking about really has. changed. So, uh, unemployment is down. and it looks to have been trending down. through much of 2026. I mean, that's one. view. The other view is it's been. roughly flat for about three years. The. truth is both are true. But what I do.

want you to notice is the good news. here, which is that unemployment remains. at historically quite low rates. Sometimes people worry that unemployment. can be driven down because, you know, people give up, they stop looking for. work, they lose hope. Um, and so what we. might do to check that is look at the. number of people who are employed. And. the other thing that's going on, by the. way, is America keeps getting older and. a whole lot of people are entering. retirement age. So that's why we might. look at prime age employment. And when.

we do that, we see that prime age. employment rates, the share of the 25 to. 54 year olds who are employed is it's. been remarkably steady actually over the. past few years and it's near its. post-pandemic highs. So, this again is. saying, look, we're not racing ahead, but we're definitely not falling behind. And yes, most people who want work can. find work. Although, I do want to. remember that it is hard to find work. when you're without work because a lot. of people have jobs. But we're in that.

low, higher, low fire phase right now. And as a result, if you're without work, it's a little harder to find. In fact, for a lot of people, downright. difficult. Okay, where are these jobs. coming from? This is just one of those. stories, the little engine that could. that um remarkably almost all of the job. growth we've had in the United States. over the past uh year and a half or. nearly two years is in healthcare and. social assistance. That's up a million. Now, what's going on with the rest of. the economy? Since January 2025, the.

rest of the economy has actually shed. jobs. But I do want you to notice that. since January of this year, that's. largely turned around, which is the rest. of the economy now is starting to create. some jobs roughly in parallel with. healthcare and social assistance. So. that healthc care story is still an. important story, but it's no longer the. whole story. The the rest of the economy. is turning up to to dance. And and that. brings us to another story we've been. tracking, which is the gender of th of.

folks who are getting jobs. And there. was a point actually where all of the. jobs that had been created under the. Trump administration had gone to women, which is an interesting contrast to all. of the rhetoric which is about steeltoed. boots and big buffy blo carrying their. lunch pales to work. Well, um what we've. actually seen is the last few months as. job growth has has expanded and I think. particularly as it's moved beyond health. care, you're starting to see some job. growth for men. So far, it's still the. case that roughly 3/4 of the jobs. created under Trump have been for women.

That's largely just another way of. thinking about most of the jobs have. been created healthcare and social. assistance, which are traditionally. feminized industries. But you are seeing. men starting to get more jobs over the. past few months. So, it's become. somewhat more balanced. Look, every. month all sorts of commentators talk. about manufacturing and I try to resist. the urge because I think all jobs. matter, not just manufacturing jobs. Um. but it seems to be politically very. salient and it's worth noticing that.

maybe over the past 6 months. manufacturing job growth has returned. And so what it means is as of today we. basically have the same level of. manufacturing employment as we had when. President Trump came to power. But we've. gone on a bit of a roller coaster. First. of all, manufacturing, the trade war, um. factories opening and closing has. absolutely dominated our news even as it. has not been a dominant force in our. labor market. Um you can look at graphs. of what's happening to manufacturing.

jobs and it looks quite dramatic until. you look at the scale. Remember. manufacturing is only a very small part. of the economy. It's small. It's a part. that shrunk fairly dramatically after. the Liberation Day tariffs. And the. moment the Supreme Court declared that. unconstitutional, well, it got back and. it recovered to where it had been. earlier. I don't want to overemphasize. that. I'm not saying it's necessarily. cause and effect, but it's worth. noticing and worth having a look at. Moving on, let's talk about your. paycheck. Wage growth. Well, wage growth.

remains one of the most disappointing. things for many for the American people. Wage growth has been falling. continuously now for several years. Wage. growth over the past year has been only. 3.1%. Prices have grown faster than that. So, as much as I've sounded optimistic and. sunny and excited about people getting. jobs, there's still an undercurrent of. anger. I think we saw that in the. midterm elections. And part of that. might be what's going on with wages and. particularly wages relative to prices.

So, wages aren't keeping up. Over the. past year, wages have grown 3.1%. Although this month they actually grew a. little faster than they might have over. the previous few months. So that's worth. keeping your eye on. Is wage growth. maybe going to pick up a bit? Um if you. look over the past, you know, year, wages have actually grown slower. relative to prices. If you go all the. way back to January 2025, which is a. politically relevant date, then you'd. say basically prices have risen and.

wages have over that entire time period. kept up. they've fallen a bit behind. over the past year, but basically if. you're a wage earner, you're not keeping. up. And I want to acknowledge something. underneath that statistic. For folks who. are moving jobs, they're actually often. getting pretty good wage rises. And so. for some of those folks, their wages, if. you move jobs, you find a better job, you get a better paying job. That's how. you keep ahead of inflation. But for. folks who are staying in their jobs, who've been loyal to their boss, well,

their bosses aren't quite being loyal to. them. Their wage growth has been quite a. bit weaker. And so their wages have not. kept up with inflation. And so that's. how we can have an average where wages. and prices are roughly moving in sync. They're falling a bit behind now. They. were getting a bit ahead later earlier. That's true on average. But for a lot of. folks, the stories they're seeing, the. reality they're seeing is one of wages. falling behind prices. They're not. keeping up, and that's painful for them. All right, let's bring this back to the.

Fed because who doesn't like to talk. about the Fed? Well, everyone does. Um, basically where we've left this story is. that the Fed had delayed raising rates. in its last meeting before the election. and they basically everyone thought they. were going to raise rates in December. and that's basically where they're at. now. But in between there was a bit of a. roller coaster. Um, probably an 80%. chance that we the Fed would raise rates. in December and then we had a very big. market correction yesterday. um stocks.

fell quite dramatically and that led. folks to re-evaluate whether the Fed. would tighten rates and they became a. little less confident and then we woke. up this morning and yeah financial. markets have done their thing but we. woke up and learned that the jobs report. says in reality the US jobs market is. doing really quite well so that really. changes how the Fed thinks about things. right inflation is a problem it's meant. to care about that unemployment much. less so well if inflation's a problem. then it's probably time to to put your.

foot on the break and so expect the Fed. to raise rates. Currently about an 80%. chance that will happen. If uh financial. markets continue to go haywire, the Fed. might slow down again. We are going to. see one more job report before the next. Fed meeting. And so at the moment, I'd. say um you know, just slow your roll on. worrying about the Fed. We do think. rates are going up. The question is much. more timing. Um, I do feel under some pressure that you. you're going to want to know what all of.

this has got to do with the midterms. Um, well, this was the October report, so all of those unemployed congressmen. and uh or congressional representatives. and senators, they're not part of the. they're not part of this report. Um but. what it does say is that bifocated. feeling that many of us had coming into. the midterms that there the economic. numbers were looking pretty good but for. many people their economic reality felt. less good. That sense of anger among. voters was very real. That contrast if.

anything now feels even more stuck. The. jobs numbers going into and I suspect. therefore the rest of the economy going. into the midterms look today like they. really were okay. But all of the exit. polls and confidence surveys and so on. tell us people are feeling and. experiencing it very differently. There's a million different stories for. what's going on. I can't pick which one. of them is exactly right right now, but. that bears thinking about. Finally, I. want to return to something that folks. have asked me about almost every jobs.

report. There's a great deal of distrust. in official statistics right now and. people often have felt that maybe these. numbers are being, you know, jigged by. the administration. Well, let me tell. you, if you were going to a set. of numbers, this is the exact opposite. of what you would do. We learn just a. few days after the midterms that in fact. we have a pretty good set of economic. numbers for October. And we learned that. what had looked like a much weaker. August and September were revised to be. a whole lot stronger. This is the exact. opposite of what it would look like if.

the administration was messing with the. numbers. So, I've said all along, I. trust the numbers. I say it when the. numbers are bad. I say it when the. numbers are good. And today I'm going to. say it to you once again. And I'm also. going to remind you that uh think of it. as my job to make sure I'm listening to. folks. I'm crunching the numbers. I'm. making sure that these numbers are. honest. And I'm going to tell you right. now, I continue to believe with as close. to 100% certainty as I ever have that. these numbers are the true numbers. Now, I'm not saying that they represent. exactly what's happening. Measuring the.

economy is hard. But I'm saying whatever. errors are involved are the sort of. random or statistical errors that one. expects from a good honest serious. statistical system. Well folks that's it. for today. I'm Justin Worers and you can. find me at Platypus Economics. This was. brought to you on the Midas Touch. Network. Uh you can check out both of. our YouTube channels. Look for the. Substacks and download podcasts wherever. you get your shows. WTF America is. officially out now. My brothers and I.

wrote it. But this book is also about. you, the millions who refused to back. down when it mattered most. Scan the QR. code, click the link in the description, or find it anywhere books are sold, and. order your copy today.