Ray Dalio: Money, Power, and the Collapse of Empires | Lex Fridman Podcast #251

the following is a conversation with ray. dalio his second time on the podcast he. is a legendary investor founder of. bridgewater associates author of a book. i highly recommend called principles and. also a new book called principles for. dealing with a changing world order that. looks at the geopolitics of today. especially us and china to the lens of. history providing a fascinating model. for the rise and fall of empires that. can be applied to the analysis of our.

world today. this is the lex friedman podcast to. support it please check out our sponsors. in the description and now here's my. conversation with ray dalio. when you look at the history of the. world as you have done in your new book. principles of dealing with the changing. world order. what is more important more impactful. money or power. they go hand in hand. they support each other and they um. compete with each other.

those who have money. have power a certain type of power. um that power. has to do with all that they can buy but. it also. has the ability to influence those with. political power. so. um and and so you see this throughout. history this symbiotic relationship. you know um for example between um. the royal families. the nobility.

and the church. so you see that group of people. supporting each other in various ways. and then wrestling around with each. other. for the money and power among that group. so the dynamic that's quite classic is. you could look at. the parties in power. back in you know the. 16th 17th centuries you would look at uh. royal families nobles and um and.

the church if you're in europe and then. you would look at. agricultural land. and there was a certain dynamic. and that varies over time it changes. as those people get thrown out and. technology changes so when we. evolved when the society evolved so that. it would produce. goods and services. and you have something like the.

industrial revolution the first. industrial revolution you have machines. and you have the talent of people that. are off the farms. and then you have a struggling for power. you see that power mix change. and so we don't see that same power mix. anymore but you still see the same. dynamic you see those with money. dealing with those who have. political power.

around those assets that are considered. most valuable to particularly the. productive assets that produce money. and political power is usually centered. around nation state. so the major locus there's of power is. the nations. yes in. 1668. after 30 years of war. there was. the development of nation states before.

then. we had it was really the development of. countries as we know it that there were. borders. and that within those borders uh those. who had control got to control it and. there was not to be intrusions in those. borders and that's how we established. the nation state. and then of course within each country. there is levels. there is a. central level. and then there is a typically a province.

or state level down below and then. there's a municipal level so they each. have different levels of power and it's. the coordination. of those that determines how the. country is run. you write that the quote archetypal big. cycle. governs the rising and declining empires. and influences everything about them. including their currencies and markets.

the most important three cycles are the. ones. you mentioned in the introduction the. long-term debt and capital market cycle. the internal order and disorder cycle. and the external order and disorder. cycle can you describe this. big cycle. there are two orders. there is an order by a sip order i mean. a system. how the system works. so. there's an internal order.

that is the internal governance system. and it's usually set out in a. constitution or some agreements. and then there's the world order. uh how the world system so for example. in 1945. um at the end of a war. which is basically a fight for. determining the world order. um the winners of the fight. got together and created the world.

system as we now know it 44 they created. the brenton woods monetary system that. determined the money pretty much. and because the united states won. and had 80 percent of the world's money. gold was money then and had 80 of the. world's gold and it was half the world. economy and it was the great military. power. the. order was built around an american world. order so that the united nations was in. new york the world bank and the imf were.

in washington and they built that new. order so classically. you have a war to determine whose rules. we're following and then you have um the. new water beings constructed. after that. there is usually period of extended. peace and. prosperity. uh peace suits prosperity. um and so there's not and the reason you. have the peace is because no one wants. to fight with the.

um dominant power you know you're going. to lose you've surrendered there's been. the surrendering they carve up the world. they say what it's going to look like. who's going to control what and then. you come into that period of of peace. and then. prosperity where then there's uh. a working together usually at that point. you've wiped out a lot of the. debt you've wiped out a lot of the.

issues the class warfare and so on. and then there's good working together. so those great periods. um such as the industrial revolution in. the late 1800s. or what we've experienced in the. post-world war ii period are peaceful. and prosperous periods. led largely by the dominant world power. over a period of time. since really 1500. and maybe before but really 1500.

when the. dutch. invented capitalism and what i mean by. that they invest invented the first. capital markets the first stocks and the. first stock market. um that since then capitalism has been. an effective tool for building wealth. because it got resources into the hands. of inventive people. that's when we moved from agriculture to. the importance of inventiveness of. people they got resources and then they.

built that prosperity. in that process of doing that. they create wealth gaps naturally those. who make a lot of money. make a lot more and than those that. don't. and. it also produces opportunity gaps. because uh for example those who earn a. lot of money have that wealth. they have the power to educate their. children in a way that others don't.

and. the gaps grow. and also the debts grow at that time. when they go around the world with their. competitiveness. they. earn a lot of money so for example the. dutch the dutch empire. learned how to build ships. um and that would go around the world a. key ingredient of this improvement in. this cycle. is the improvement of education and by.

education i mean the skills that come. from education but also civility the. ability to deal with well together. so the dutch. invented ships that could go around the. world and they had military power but. they were also very inventive society 25. of the world's new inventions came from. the dutch. and so as they went around the world. they also brought their currency. and they brought their military they. needed their the currency they paid for.

things um and that currency and then the. more that happens the more that becomes. a reserve currency. and then they have their military so. they need their military strength and so. you see it evolve in all of those ways. but over a period of time. um as they become more successful and. more expensive. um they became they become more. expensive. um. and and. newer countries come along like um the.

uk. um. then uh be learned to build ships from a. lot the dutch and could do that less. expensively. and also when they become more. expensive so less competitive and also. the work ethic begins to change they. believe that since they're richer they. can enjoy life more they don't have to. work quite as hard. and so you start to see the tilt. now you start to see the development of. the top and when you have a world.

reserve currency. that allows you to borrow a lot of money. because those who want to save. want to hold your money and that means. that they'll lend you money and so those. countries get deeper into debt. so you see that they gradually lose. their competitiveness. and they um and they get themselves into. financial circumstances which are not. good. and they have large wealth gaps.

which set the stage for downturns and. when they have downturns. um the first question is do they have. enough money and traditionally you know. uh money is is resources um so you. classically see that the coffers are. bare. that they're spending more money than. their. than they are earning and they run out. of money in the coffers. and their granaries are empty rather.

than stocked so that they give them the. buffer. and as that deteriorates that's that. worsens conditions and if they have a. rival power that's also challenging them. they see greater internal conflict over. wealth. and then they have the problems. internally and the problems externally. which usually results in an internal war. or an external war that leads to the.

change in the to the new world order. and to you the dutch empire is a good. example that. the british. what are some of the key examples that. you think about in the book. of this process that follow the big. cycle. well the leading reserve currency. empires but it applies to all the. empires. um. were the the dutch the british uh the. american and the chinese. um but um you could follow the same.

pattern. um in the book i it was very important. for me to not just use words and. concepts because that's subjective it. was very important for me to use. actual measurements so as you see in the. book you can see every level of this you. can see where is the education level. what is the military power each one of. those and you could see them back going. over the 500 years. and so um you can see the arcs and the.

composition of those. arcs and what you see is really in most. countries in most dynasties you can see. that but you also can see through those. numbers. the health um of those countries today. um there are there are statistics that. you could that are in the book that show. what is the level of education what is. the letter level of economic output what. is the level of. um military strength what is the level.

of a number of different measures of. strength so that you can then compare. that and i think that because there are. objective measures of strength that you. could see change. that shows the picture of where we are. today and i think one of the most. important things about the book. is that it allows people to monitor how. those things are transpiring i think for. policy makers. um you know are your policy policymakers.

doing a good job and there's so much. subjectivity in that but i think it's. very simple if those lines on the chart. are improving if your health index is. improving. then you're moving toward a better life. so that's what the book works like also. it was used to create a model for the. future. in other words there are cause effect. relationships. everything that happens has reasons.

causes that preceded it that made it. happen. and so by having all those in numbers. one can see the probabilities of certain. things happening so um that's what. that's what you see in in the book it's. not just. you know rey's interpretation i didn't. want to make it raise interpretation. because i don't know if i'm right yeah. so one of the fascinating things in the. book so you have list these 18 measures. and there's like a little scorecard.

for the. countries of the world today so let's. say u.s china and europe. and what it was 20 years ago and looking. at the change from 20 years ago and. that's another indicator to change. itself to see. where things are headed. maybe can you comment on. from a score perspective how is u.s and. china doing. and in the 18 measures what are some. measures that stand out to you is. particularly important to think about.

today for the united states for china. well there are a number um. financially. what you see in the united states is. that um. we're borrowing a lot more money. creating a lot of debt. and we're uh printing a lot of money. and our capacity to do that. is very much is limited first of all. because um when you when there's a sale. of a bond when the government.

borrows more than it borrows money. because it spends more than it takes in. um you have to sell a bond. and the world right now has a lot of us. dollar denominated bonds because as the. world's reserve currency they sell sold. on them and they have very. bad returns. negative real returns negative real. returns significantly and so on. so that um.

means that more bonds has to be sold. than. um are. bought. and that means that the federal reserve. has is faced with the choice of having. to raise the interest rate. to curtail borrowing. which slows the economy and hurts the. markets or by. filling that difference. and producing money the debt. monetization. which produces an inflation. in goods services and financial assets.

so in that regard that's our the united. states's position. in china's case its balance of payments. um is a better. um china has. displaced the united states. as the world's largest trading country. in other words more exports to other. countries and as a result it's. economically competitive. but it doesn't have the world's reserve.

currency it's a real blessing so the. united states it has the world's reserve. currency but it is risking it because of. this imbalance so if you look at history. you see that those go slowly but when. they go. eventually they go quickly. so there's a risk of of. of that financially. then there's the issue of uh internal. order. so i'm just giving you the major ones.

but i'll get into some of the other ones. too. right now um there's a lot of internal. conflict in the united states. uh which affects its and um. how well it works um in china there's. less internal conflict because it's a. more autocratic. state but also they've created. this bifurcation. of what is political. and what is um economic in terms of.

producing that prosperity so if you stay. out of the politics pretty much. um. and then you're seeing um. entrepreneurship you're seeing the. finances of new businesses and so on and. so that internal working. um you know that's subject to different. people's interpretations whether they. like it or not but the internal conflict. in terms of those kinds of measures is. is less sorry to pause on that for a. second so these measures.

i guess you don't want to sort of um. romanticize any one measure or something. like that over interpret any one measure. but is internal conflict. always a bad thing is some is this uh. is it a complicated calculation or do. you kind of the way we think about these. measures that you've presented we should. be thinking like. the higher the better the lower worse or. i mean of course depending on well. in many cases.

the conflict that produces the. revolution. produces revolutionary changes. that lead to. resolutions. that and lead to new starts. and so. their short term. a short-term civil war. is a hellacious experience. and at the same time it can be um the. transition to a new beginning. um.

also there are different types of. conflict. uh competition. which makes things makes everything. better is is a productive. conflict. whereas destructive conflicts. are. not good over the short time. so you know that's how that those go so. within each measure the story. is complicated. yeah but my measures are are sort of.

clear meaning. how much political conflict how much. social conflict. in other words you can measure conflict. you can measure fighting you can measure. crime rates you can measure. um. lots of different ways of conflict so. the measures are a composite of. different types of internal conflict. what are some other interesting measures. maybe if you can also mention like for. me in particular interest is education.

and innovation yes. the classic cycle the most important. leading indicator. is the quality of education. most importantly. broad-based. education drawn as a. from the largest population because you. can never tell who the talent is going. to be so where they're going to come. from so for example if you look at the. chinese dynasties the great chinese. dynasties um and the confucian approach.

it was meritocratic of um. everybody could sit for exams and so on. broad base of drawing in the populations. and you see that if you go across. societies. because that draws on the largest number. of population to get education. and it also um that creates um. a reality and a. perception that the system is fairer. equal opportunity not just one of.

privilege and that helps to create. social stability. but education. is not just uh education in. understanding facts and so on it is. education. and um. civility of how to behave together and. so if they're smart. they understand how to be productive. because they work well together and. they're productive and then that leads. to the next stage you could see in the.

lines in the charts we i plotted these. so that you could see in a typical cycle. you could see that education is the long. leading. indicator and then you could see as you. mentioned. that you what you see is inventiveness. and technology measures then follow and. you see. then also competitiveness in world. markets follows for example in the early. stages of a cycle the industries that.

they go into um. tend to be very basic industry because. they have cheap labor something like. textiles and. simple manufactured goods and so on but. as the education rises then they move up. the value chain to uh tech greater. technologies and so on which raises. incomes and raises productivity so yes. those and and you know as you say there. are 18 different measures like that but. education um.

and then civility and the inventiveness. so you see it reflected in. in who's inventing what. um and that corresponds then who's. trading with. who's a big trading country and where's. the value of economic output and what. are per capita incomes they all follow. those arcs. yeah like you said the fascinating thing. about your book so there's philosophy. there's wisdom. uh but there's plots. yeah you can see it.

so it's not just your opinion it's kind. of like uh you can interpret it any way. you like uh but you're just giving a lot. of of your own insights along with the. numbers. if you were to look at the american. nation the american empire. and the trajectory is looking into the. future. given these measures. what is the trajectory that leads to the. collapse of the american empire based on. these measures what are the concerning. indicators and if um if those break down.

further what does that look like. well all of those indicators. are concerning. um maybe. except for one which is technology. the technology niche. although even in that area the united. states is. improving at a slower rate than is china. for various advantages that they have.

there they put out about eight times as. many computer engineers they have free. data and so on but if you look at them. so the financial is a is a concern. the internal order disorder is a concern. then if you look at education levels. the united states. is in many way is is losing its. educational advantage if you were to. look at compare it with china.

if you take general public education in. the united states. it's deteriorated tremendously even in. comparison to developed countries. there are scores pieces scores and so on. and it's you know something like 38th in. the world or something and that was a. big plunge average public education if. you look at the best universities in the. world the united states is unique in. having the best universities in the. world so there are these privileged.

spots. um that are you know excellent. uniquely excellent so when you look at. the comparison education in china. is improving rapidly. and it and the quantity. is a quantity of educated people in the. areas that they're moving in are is is. greater. and the resources that they're putting. behind it is greater and so you see the. results are greater. um but um.

it's sort of along the lines that i'm. i'm dealing with if you were to follow. through. in terms of um. actual productions i i think uh you you. know in terms of technologies um there. are some areas that the united states is. in a lead at the moment there's some. areas that china's in a lead but china's. gaining. very quickly when i first went to china. 1984. i would bring 10 calculators and i gave.

them away as gifts to high ranking. people and they thought they were. miracle devices. um. right now in terms of areas like quantum. computing and a.i and. and. you know many areas. you have a race going on and so if you. take the trajectory of the. competitiveness not just look at the. current level you have a situation where. they're improving at a much faster rate.

this is all good for the world if the. world can get along. and the main thing i think is. um. in just. how do you have a healthy world and how. do you have a strong economy and how do. you have a strong situation is be strong. the united states is war is with itself. that's the main war you know it's very. simple in history. [Music]. be financially sound earn more than you.

spend. um. and be strong in these ways. and pretty much everything will take. care of itself. but you make it sound simple of course. because there's a momentum when things. degrade when the education system. degrades when you start borrowing. when um i mean all of these indicators. once once they start going down it's uh. there's a momentum to it right so it's. hard to reverse it right and there are.

circumstances that you're then in. uh for example. indebtedness. you know it's politically. desirable for those in. to borrow money and spend. because their constituencies only look. at what they get. and when they get a lot they don't pay. attention to the balance sheet and how. much debt is on the books so it's always. better to. borrow spend. and then leave the cleanup to the next.

guy. and so you inherit a lot. you inherited as. a new president enters in or new. legislators they have a lot of debt. they have a broken down infrastructure. um they don't have enough money to fix. that. and so that's the lay of the land that. the prior generations put you in. and there you are and so that's right.

um it's difficult because when you start. to think okay what's healthy well spend. earn more than you spend well that's not. so easy. because. you know what does that mean go earn. more i mean okay that's not so easy. spend less. that isn't going to work. so now what do you do okay you have this. debt that you then monetize and that's. why it's classic so yes that's why these. cycles occur because what has created. before put.

what happened before created the lay of. the land that is then increasingly. difficult to deal with. so what can great leaders do in this. moment i mean maybe um. my sense is leadership is crucial here. so for example to do very large projects. that invest in the education system that. sort of try to. fix the fundamentals or maybe. invest more and more into the innovation. and the develop development of new. technologies and so on. it feels like that just doesn't happen.

organically. so you have to have strong. leaders that. convince the populace of the importance. of these ideas. well i completely agree with your list. what we have is a situation where. everybody. has their opinions and they have to sort. of get them exactly right and they all. fight with each other about whether. their opinions so the most important. thing.

is that we are become bipartisan so that. we don't. and we get over our differences i would. have a bipartisan cabinet. i would draw upon. um. both members of both parties the the. moderates who are going to be able to. work together. so as then we have one country. and then we deal with those in. a means that works for the majority of. the people in the middle rather than the.

polarity. i think our greatest risk is in not. being able to do that so i would say. that's. a paramount importance. because we have the resources. you know um. wealth real wealth and and science and. everything has never been better than it. is. but the notion is that it has to work. for the majority of people. and we. have to keep it being productive so that.

that group has got to calmly and. knowledgeably work together so that they. increase the size of the pie and they. create broad-based prosperity. so that is a paramount importance. whatever they do if they do it that way. i can say i'm happy about because that. other alternative is the really scary. alternative. the. the scary alternative.

the different ways it has evolved. throughout history. some of it has led to wars. what are the future trajectories that. lead to a potential war with china. cold war. or hot war is this something you think. about is this something you're worried. about. yeah i'd like to talk about both wars so. the war with china. as i say there are five kinds of wars. there's a trade war tech um technology. war.

geopolitical influence war. um capital war. and military war. i um as far as military war goes i only. i think it's only a taiwan issue. um but that's a big issue. and we could talk about that for a. minute. but those others there'll be uh rough. competitions. and we'll have that type of evolution. over a period of time that's what. that war looks like.

taiwan has been. for a long time. a sovereignty issue to china. and it has its roots in what's called. the hundred years of humiliation. from the 1840s to 1949. foreign powers came in took advantage of. china. they had the opium wars and such times. and. and that represented the 100 years of.

humiliation. and. taiwan. represents is. their sovereignty and. their important thing and. 50 years ago starting 50 years ago there. was an agreement that there is one china. and. taiwan is part of china. and that there would be. peaceful reunification. the. the peaceful reunification hasn't.

happened and in their view. that's a very big issue and so it's a. big contentious issue. and that uh could produce a military war. um could produce a military accident. could produce a it's a very tense. situation and if we had a military war. god help us. because of the capacity in all different. new ways to inflict um harm on each. other but anyway that's that's that if. you don't have that military war you'll.

have the competition between. those other kinds of wars and whoever is. strongest in those areas will um win. where do you put cyber war within the. five. well cyber war is a military war i'm. assuming the type of cyber war that. you're using you're referring to is that. which it's used to inflict pain on the. other party through cyber so cyber wars. you'll see cyber war. you could see space war.

you can see drone warfare. you um new types of warfare not just. the traditional and nuclear type of. warfare but you could see any of the. above. what are the defining characteristics. what are the interesting things about xi. jinping the president of china. as a leader on the world stage. his father was a. early.

leader he was himself. [Music]. in the cultural revolution at times. treated. brutally. um and during that period of time it was. very very difficult. and he came up. you know through the ranks and he's a. very. intelligent man. when he first came to power they as you. know they have two five-year terms.

and we're now coming to the end of the. second of those five-year terms when he. first came to power. he felt that there should be a lot of. reform. and reform meant moving to much more of. a market an open economy. when. that happened in him coming in. i had some contact with economic. policymakers but and the circumstances. then were that five major banks.

lent to state-owned enterprises and. local governments with implied. government guarantees. and so there was not control of that and. they and the movement to aim more of a. market economy and the development of. markets uh was a primary and also the. dealing with the corruption issue there. was a lot of corruption. prior to that and that was viewed as an. existential threat to the system so that. became the primary objective.

and then as time progressed. over those 10 years. there was a. a lot of changing. in the world finance their financial. circumstances opening many many other. markets. they particularly getting money to small. and medium-sized enterprises and. developing a lending system and then. establishing controls on it so right now. um. there's. a vibrant.

um. capital markets um you can raise capital. you can be an entrepreneur you can. become a billionaire. um in the capital markets and they. develop the markets to be the second. largest capital markets. at the same time um. they had to deal with their um rising. debt issue. which they began to deal with uh really. about four years ago. when the second.

term began. and the um. and then uh lu huh became um. the vice premier um responsible for that. and to um and deal with uh those issues. so you see right now that what's. happening is uh the dealing with the. real estate bubble there was a. development in real estate a bubble. which produced um a lot of unproductive. lending and xi ping said.

you know. houses are meant to live in not to. speculate on and so that was wasteful so. they established what they call three. red lines which are financial ratios. that the property developers had to live. within and that is then causing the. adjustments that are going on now which. in my view are very healthy because um. whenever there's uh bankruptcies and so. on the most in the public think okay.

that's a problem it's in many cases. really a cleaning up of bad debts and. bad practices and so um that's what's. going on so that's let's say. economically at the same time there is. the changing relationships the changing. world order the changing relationships. with the united states and other. countries which is becoming um much less. cooperative and much more war-like much. more confrontational.

um those two things the. the domestic debt problem and domestic. has led to. um what's called core what they call. core leadership which means. a leadership more around him. that. is less. challenging. because they believe in history. that during very difficult times. um a more centrally controlled. decision-making process lends itself.

better than to a more fragmented. political contentious project and that's. basically what's. going on now. you said it very eloquently. but you mean. the leadership is surrounded by yes men. and there's a lot of. centralized control. that characterization. is view is much more black and white. than it really is. uh but it leans towards that direction. they're like for example of the standing.

members of the polar bureau four are. more eligi allied him. three or less so. you have to understand that it's kind of. a collective leadership at the top. and then of course there's just. jockeying for power um you know in a. highly political sense. um at the top uh but no one leader can. be successful against the uh all those. powers at the top so it's very.

politically negotiating it's you know. it's very much more like if you put. um in the united states the democrats. and the republicans and they had to be. in the same government and they work it. out uh it's kind of something like that. and then so that's that struggle but. it's an internal struggle. where do you put the importance of some. of these. ideas at the founding of the united. states. when then. now we're talking about at the context. of china the freedom of speech freedoms.

what china is doing with the central. management of a lot of things it's. enabling a lot of growth. but it's also limiting. people on the very basic level in terms. of freedom the kind of freedom that. i think can lead to entrepreneurship to. starting new businesses to having big. dreams and chasing those dreams and then. creating totally new things in whatever. the space maybe in technology. in business and whatever. what how important is that as a metric.

for society well they have a view which. is the idea of a dialectic which means. that two things are at obvious that. everything comes with pros and cons and. two opposites exist. and you want the benefits of those two. opposites and how do you deal with the. benefits of those two opposites right so. let's say you want the capital markets. because it gets uh money into the hands.

of the entrepreneurs who are motivated. they build fortunes and that drives an. economy to do very well and at the same. time um it produces uh the other. problems the wealth gaps the other. problems then the debt cycle that we're. talking about and so on and deng. xiaoping you know how do you reconcile. communism. and. um the market economy and the capital. markets and he uh famously said um.

and if it doesn't matter if it's a white. cat or a black cat just as long as it. catches mice in other words if it if it. works in making the country richer. then that becomes the objective and then. they move that along so there are these. conflicts. um and um. one of the leaders. described it to me as follows because. it's confusion and it goes back over a. period of time. there's a a hierarchy and it's an. extension of uh the family he described.

it and he said the united states is a. country. of individuals and individualism. and that is its vibrancy that um. we see. the individual. rights to speak up the individual. [Music]. protection of the individual individual. property rights and all of those things. as of uh paramount importance and we. build our organization that's why.

democracy is from the bottom up or even. a company we'll get together and we'll. be partners to proper prosper together. that is the american approach. um he was describing. that in china it's an extension of the. confucian family essentially and so it's. almost like um um you know there's a. hierarchy and so what they think about. is the common good. uh not the individualism. so for example if they want a high-speed.

rail to go from one place to another and. that's best in the common good. then the individual protections that. would stand in the way of doing that. would be of secondary concern. so that notion of uh controlling so it. it for example. um the what what they're doing with uh. video games. um. they um control. uh what type of video games and how. many hours a day kids can be on video.

games. um. operating in that way because they. believe that that's good for the society. and that's very controlling. in the united states i i think probably. most parents would say leave it to me. and it's it's a matter between me and my. kids the same thing has to do with data. in other words in the united states who. controls the data. does the company control the data do you. individually control the data and so the.

inclination would be to figure that out. but nobody would say that the government. is going to control the data because of. our inclination of really. anti-government control. in china it would be that the government. will control the data. because that's going to be best for the. society and it depends who you trust but. that's. so that difference in philosophy is very. much at the um you know at the heart of. that as far as um your question in terms.

of. effectiveness it really is in china's. case it's how you balance the things. right so what they're attempting to do. is to create a lot of freedom and. creativity um in areas that are not. uh political let's say. and. and so you see on a lot of. entrepreneurship. you see a lot of product development you. see a lot of creativity. um happening in that way so the.

stereotype that you don't see creativity. happening is is an old stereotype. where's a lot of creativity certainly. happening and the system can work well. if they can achieve that kind of balance. it's proven to have worked well since i. started going there in 1984 per capita. income real per capita income has. increased by 26 times the um longevity. rate has. increased by 10 years the poverty rate. has fallen from 88.

to less than 1 in terms of you know. basics like starvation and things and if. you read history. plato's republic you know he talks about. the cycles. democracy. you know an autocratic and the. benevolent. despot and all of that. each has. their own vulnerability. the vulnerability of democracy which has. been a remarkable remarkable system and. i don't have to extol the benefits of it.

um but the vulnerability of it. has always been uh the um internal. conflict that produces itself as anarchy. um in world war ii. uh four democracies. chose to be. autocracies. um because there was internal disorder. and there was this is the belief will. somebody bring about order and get.

control of the situation you know that. was in um germany italy uh japan and. spain um they were parliamentary dictat. systems that uh turned themselves over. to that so both systems um have. vulnerabilities um. i think the main thing now that we need. to think about. is those vulnerabilities democracy is an. amazing system because it requ. the the adherence to the rules and the.

system and the checks and balances is. quite amazing and it gives it a. flexibility to change without civil wars. um um. but there has to be the respect of the. rules and when you see something like. that they will not. accept. elections or they will not accept rules. and history has shown when the causes. that people are behind are more.

important to them than the system the. system is in jeopardy so we have a. situation that's very much like that. in terms of. let's say the 2024 elections. i believe that there's a very high. chance that neither side will accept. losing. for example and so we um. we have that kind of a situation so. one would hope that one could rise above.

the disagreements. and rely on the system uh for resolving. disagreements because if if that doesn't. happen then we have our own uh chaos. so the kind of the trend that started in. 2020 this or i mean i mean i suppose. it's been there. it's been growing. a rep one representation of this. internal disorder has been the growing. trend of being skeptical about the. results of the election. well it started before that.

there was the emergence of populism. where before uh president uh trump was. elected. he was basically elected. as a populist because there was a large. percentage of the population. that felt that the system didn't work. for them. and he tapped into that and he was. largely elected as a populist leader. first populous leader in a developed. country. um and so populism began that then.

and that was a battle of one group. against the other group and so since. then it's been like that and it. continued to grow. you've mentioned. the vulnerability of democracy that. internal disorder is the vulnerability. of democracy what's the vulnerability of. a system like china maybe one way to say.

is put china aside and look at history. like a soviet union what's the. vulnerability of a communist. type system. well i'll call it both communist. and. autocratic sure. depending on how much autocracy. is that it lacks flexibility. it it lacks um the ability. so but i should deal with them. differently um in other words there's.

the economic system. the economic system um threatens. motivation. and productivity so communism or. socialism. uh has to be done in a way where. um you can threaten productivity. capitalism has. and what i mean by that i mean free. markets and capital markets. i have been an effective way of. allocating resources. and also creating the.

the incentives. and the resources providing the. resources for the inventiveness of new. ideas and so if i compare that. what the chinese have done to a large. extent is to recognize that and have. made a move. that's why the uh seeming. dialectic or the conflict between those. two things exists but anyway that's it. as far as an autocratic system. rather than um one man one vote from the.

population up. the risks of the autocratic system. is that there's enough discontent that. arises. that the system doesn't have the. flexibility. and that rather than bending um it. breaks. um that's that's the big risk um the. notion of trying to control a. um if there's that rather than giving it.

the flexibility. um so that's the that would be the big. risk of the autocratic system what's the. human. uh. because you mentioned like the top gets. bigger with empires. and you start taking things for granted. is the some of this just human nature. so the concern with with china. with autocratic nations. the concern with the. the third reich. the soviet union. was that.

fundamentally at the individual level. the humans involved at the top. they start becoming they're starting to. lose touch with reality. in a way that. no longer makes them i guess that's the. representation of the flexibility that. you're referring to well i'm i mean in a. democracy. you could change you can go as far left. or as far right you can change the. leaders easily and so the people don't. become. um you know they pretty much only have. themselves to blame uh yeah you know and.

one of the problems of that is they may. not choose the best leaders. but they. they have that flexibility so if vote. and. you get what you wanted. in the case of the autocratic let's say. leaders and then the movement from. democracies to autocracies. what you. see normally that movement is that one. of the systems is it is not working.

let's say the democracy is not. effectively everybody's arguing with. each other and nobody's getting anything. done and. you know like mussolini the trains are. not running on time and that would be. the example jesus this place has gotten. chaotic will somebody get into control. and then they then you get the. autocratic um and then he's autocratic. enough to boss people around and um and. then you follow those kinds of orders. and it's like a maybe a ceo in a.

powerful company ordering around and. that could work well or it could work. badly you know most. um companies. are run as um. like autocracies in a sense you know. there's the hierarchy and you the. command economy and that kind of thing. and now that can work well or not um but. then what quite often when you get the. populist autocratic their personality is.

something that they want to fight. and they become more nationalistic. and they tend to become more. militaristic and human nature at that. stage. lends itself to fighting there's an arc. here that when we think. it's we think of a country. um and we say we when we think of a. country. um it's not true it's not like that. there are individuals who change. one generation dies and another.

generation comes along. and one of those arcs is that um. the ones who have been through war. don't want to go to war. and are more happily you know willing to. um abide by whatever the rules are. as you get farther along into that cycle. and you get a new generation and they. forget about wars and the horrors of. wars then they um. then they want to uh uh fight and so. you're seeing right now.

the emergent of fight for right and and. what that means is you see it internally. uh fight. where are you and fight for that thing. and they mean fight. and then into externally fight are you. going to be uh the strong one who will. fight and win and that develops on both. sides this fight and win and each side. is cheering each other on into uh a war.

but that's comes by those who really. have not experienced war because it. comes in their part of their lifetime. humans are fascinating. humans are fascinating and by the way. human nature has not changed. over the. thousands of years so it's the it's so. interesting because like in doing this. study and it comes across in the study. it's like watching the same movie over. and over again. you you know you see the ark and you see.

it happen over and over again the only. things that seem to change are the. clothes people wear and the technologies. uh. yeah and then somebody probably will. disagree with you about the clothes. maybe there's also cycles within. fashions maybe we're not even creative. there. uh what do you um. make of uh russia and vladimir putin. what do you think about putin as a. leader as a human being on this world. stage within the context.

of the cycles of empires that you think. about. well. putin came to power. at the failure of. russia's last order so there was there. was the end of communism. and there was the development of the. market economy the collapse of the. soviet union. and at that time. he. was appointed by yeltsin. who was an alcoholic and had problems.

managing. and was put into power and the. conditions in the russian were the work. there was anarchy. um there was no money it was it had the. classic end of cycle ingredients it was. broke it was people were fighting with. each other was the anarchy and that's. when he. came to power. and um there were not. institutions. the whole thing had collapsed and it was. not effective ministry of education.

ministry of anything. and so the idea. was that they needed 25 years of. stability and they needed a democracy. and they needed. the the improvement of capital markets. um so he's been in that position. as a um as. i guess i would call him. um a semi-autocratic leader in that.

from all indications he would respect. the democracy. um and he's very popular he's won. democratic elections because he's been a. strong leader and he's brought uh peace. and stability to the soviet u to to. russia after the breakup of the soviet. union. and um. he's a strong leader. in pursuit of. the. the country's interests.

in um a way where. russia is not. a significant economic power. and but it is a significant military. power. um so um the issues and then there's a. strong alliance between russia and china. now. um so that's kind of the lay of the land. and then there are sensitivities the. ukraine issue.

is uh a sensitivity um because of. there are a lot of russians who live in. the ukraine. and there's also the issue of nato on it. on their border. um so there are those kinds of things. and he has military power and he has a. strong alliance with china. um and i guess that's my best summary of. um what his position is. strong leader um popular.

um. [Music]. these are not subjective interpretations. these are uh objective interpretations. yeah it's interesting just in this. conversation you're not. sort of um. doing the usual criticism of any one. particular system you're looking at. these systems from the perspective of. history you're just describing how they. work. it's often times when you talk about. what russia is today or what the soviet. union was or what china is today is you. start to criticize well they they do.

this kind of censorship or they do this. kind of they limit freedoms in this kind. of way. but you're just kind of describing this. as a nation. with ideas what they think is right. this is how they hope to get it to work. this is why it's working this is what's. not working here's metrics that show. that it's not working i think that's a. refreshing way to think about it it's. easy though i mean you got some. criticism um. saying that i think china's a strict. parent.

um. you know some people criticize these. countries for doing. uh so for violating human rights i. suppose there's some. people that criticize the united states. violating human rights but what are your. thoughts. on the world stage today. about some of the. behaviors of this government in terms of. respecting the rights the basic rights. of human beings you described accurately.

how i. just try to look at things in an um a. non. i don't want to impute my values yes on. anybody um. i mean there are intolerable things so. i'm not saying there aren't intolerable. things but um one of the great things of. being an american here is that i grew up. with all different nationalities having. all different points of view and all. different religions and all different. ways of operating.

and i've come to treasure the fact that. that is. you know what's their business is their. business and then the question is where. do you cross the line under what. circumstances that that others have got. to do it my way and then when you do it. internationally. uh the ob the issue of what is a. sovereign state you know which um as i. say in the piece of west failure and you. have borders and you then when do you. cross the line that um.

my way of doing things has got to be. their way of doing things or what are. the various rights and so that's a very. uh delicate question or a very difficult. question. and we all have responsibilities to. different parties and we all have. different levels of knowledge about. those particular things so um so for. example. as an international investor i have a. responsibility to my investors. those who run companies have a.

responsibility to theirs of how do they. run that so if you're taking. nike or. stinkers and so on and americans can. decide whether they want to buy product. chinese products or not buy chinese. products we are all faced with those. types of choices. so you have what do you want to do in. your constituency and you have your. choices and then beyond that in many. cases the issues are quite complex like. there are geopolitical questions that.

enter into it so um uh and then i i. believe that if if you. disconnected if all those. if entities like myself the businesses. uh doing business with china. disconnected i think that that would be. disastrous economically disastrous and. it would also be um reduce. um the the understanding that comes from. working together that helps to reduce.

wars and so these are all complicated so. what we do. is uh. and and who makes it my opinion matters. the most why should it be my opinion. that matters the most in making that. decision so i largely look at the guide. the government guidance that i get not. only from my own government but from the. other governments and i follow the rules. i'm in 40 we invest in 40 countries. and we want to do that in the best way. to provide the diversified portfolio and.

we sort of need that. every one of those countries has. similar complexities there are always. one issue or another and then and. there's only so much that we really. understand about all of those issues so. we rely largely on the guidance that we. you have get. empathize and show respect to the the. culture of the place the way things are. done. you don't necessarily um. the way you heal. relationships between nations is like.

like you said you work together and that. requires. kind of um. to listen maybe more than you talk. and i think people in the public sphere. uh. talk a lot about china without really. listening without understanding much. about china without one of the things. that makes me really sad because i know. how to speak russian. and i can i know how much is lost in. translation. it makes me sad that i'll never really. get to know the chinese culture because.

like i'll never really get to know the. language the literature the. just talk to regular people it's not. just the government or officials or. scientists just regular folks get the. culture i think if you don't understand. the culture. uh. just the basics of the human nature of. what people. love about their country about their. family or the kind of hopes they have. you know what kind of values they have. without that you're not going to be able. to um.

fully. um connect with them and you have to do. that first to have a chance of building. a good world i couldn't agree with you. more i was very lucky because as i say. uh. you know since 1984 so for more than. half of my life. i've been going there and i and the. common people. and all sorts of people and i've got to. meet them i don't speak the language. but it a combination of through. translators or men them speaking english.

and being in situations i had my son go. to school a local school. and we we developed those kinds of. understandings i think that. um. but. the not wanting. to know the other perspective. is the thing that's most scary yeah like. i'm right now in the middle and um. and all i want to try to do is. to help mutual understanding.

you're right if there were questions. probing me asking me. what is it i'm not on one side or. another i get i don't want to be on one. side or another i believe that each has. their right within there to approach. their different culture in their own way. so many ways you gave an example it uh. um if they're not um doing harm to. others i mean so but. that issue. of um. trying to understand.

is. so much better that doesn't mean agree. with. if you are. wanting to. out-clever and out-compete somebody it. still pays to understand what they're. thinking. so to achieve understanding of what. they're thinking even if you want to go. to war with them that understanding is. the best thing to have. what we have now is a situation. in which there's an enemy mentality and.

that means that anything that serves the. seems to be like understanding or. conveying understanding seems to. mistakenly create the notion of i'm on. their side in a war and that's kind of a. dangerous thing because. um there's a momentum here to fight. henry kissinger praises your new book. and you thank him in it in the. dedication. what's your relationship like with him. what makes him interesting.

maybe what makes him controversial what. makes him such a central figure in. history the first. most importantly he's unique about. seeing things through all. the others eyes. so if you were it's like there's a chess. game i mean i think geopolit geopolitics. is like a chess game but with multiple. chess players playing the same game yes. so imagine there are. six people around playing the chess game.

and he could sit in each seat. and he could know how they see it. okay and see it in a calm way of how. they see it he's unique in that way he's. 98 years old and he's equally able to do. that. and he has a background. that in which he's a historian so he. really understands history. super. um. he doesn't understand economic history.

as much so that's why to some extent we. enjoy having a conversation because he's. interested in the act and in the. economic piece he doesn't know and i'm. so interested in the geopolitical piece. that i don't know as well but anyway. he's able to do that but not only a. historian but a practitioner. so when you go from an academic. to a practitioner. who has that talent. to see things through others eyes in an.

objective way and to be strategic rather. than just tactical. that's a very special person and that's. why henry is uh to me a very special. person. yeah he's lived a fascinating life. just all all of the world events he's. been involved in. is fascinating and like you said that's. such an interesting skill to have to. consider what are the concerns the hope. the dreams the fears of the all the. people at the table what are they. thinking.

i find that people don't. once again don't do that enough when. it's the obvious thing you should be. doing whether it's business deals or. um political negotiation or geopolitical. negotiation. i'm often surprised again sorry to go to. the russian thing because i i i hear. sort of like i hear putin talk in. russian. and you start to infer certain. intentions and like not the trivial. stuff like the human being what is.

what is that human being hoping for. himself for his country. for his close in a circle for the bigger. like and i i just see that that's often. just lost in translation i just see like. american leaders talking to putin. and it's just not. it's there's not a connection absolutely. i know exactly what you're talking about. you. i it has never failed that in my. listening to a conversation and or even. reading a speech.

or. and you see then it reported. the inevitably the reporter. picked some. headline characterization. that has very little to do with what was. really happening but might be a headline. grabber. that's at some kind of distortion and. there's a lack of understanding of. really what's going on. if it's okay let me ask you a couple. questions about cryptocurrency. uh you've had a few opinions about.

bitcoin over the years what are your. thoughts about bitcoin today its role. in the global financial system and just. in human society in general. well the evolution of bitcoin over the. years is one of the things that. has. influenced changes in my view. it. has proven itself. something like 10 11 years ago imagine. the programming of this and here's the.

you throw it out and that's the idea it. has not been hacked. it has um. um operated it is built it has come an. amazing way. um over that 11 years to be um. maybe. probably the most excited topic. among a lot of people um and has been. used and and is now um has obtained you. know the status of having imputed value.

at the same time it is one of those. assets. that is an alternative money i think. we're entering an era. where um there's going to be a. competition of monies. um. because of the printing of fiat money. um and the. depreciated value. there will be a competition of monies um. and bitcoin is part of that competition. but there'll be many monies not just.

crypto monies but there'll be central. bank crypto monies. um but they'll be uh different kinds of. monies. um and even monies um are things that. you buy and sell nfts can become a money. uh a type of money you own it and it's. an investment and you could say i'd. rather own it than own uh bitcoin. has ray dalia bought any nfts not yet. okay. um. but um only only just because like i i.

definitely want to buy nfts to just. experience them you know like i think. think i should produce one yeah and i. should uh i should have asked that have. you made it have you minted an empty you. probably should just to know what it's. like yeah that's right this stuff is. happening yeah this stuff is real okay. and how it operates but like all new. real things. um some are gonna go and so i'm gonna. you know it's like in the internet in.

the year 2000. um you know pets.com could have been a. great but maybe pets.com doesn't make it. and who knows that's the beauty of the. competitive system that will evolve and. some things will be treasured and some. things will be uh trashed. so um um but when i look at it um i. think we are in an environment of you. know what is an alternative money a. money has two purposes a medium of. exchange and a storehold of wealth. and we are looking for.

and it's portable. and you can and it's best if it's. recognized in other countries. um so gold is one of those so i look at. it as an alternative gold. but i look at a number of things as. alternative gold. um and i think that and i think and gold. is still my favorite. because of certain qualities for example. um you can't trace it in in bitcoin you.

can trace who owns it where it's going. and and so on governments can't have. that ability to trace it and so on a. gold piece of coin it's it's not. connected i think not connected has. benefits particularly in a world where. maybe connections can be more risky. um so. and then also gold has been. for many thousands of years universally. recognized as a source of money and. central banks it's the third largest.

uh source of money in central bank. reserves. and i don't think bitcoin is going to. serve those types of purposes and so on. so for various reasons i prefer gold to. the other but it's a little bit part of. my mix. but then you look at it it hit i think. 69 000 this year as the high bitcoin hit. do you think it's possible you mentioned. gold. do you think it's possible it reaches. very high numbers like 1 million some.

people talk about. i don't i don't think that's possible. because the way i look at it is. there's a certain amount of. um. [Music]. a certain amount of it. and there's a certain amount of gold. i'll use gold as a benchmark. the amount of it is worth about five uh. about one trillion dollars. total cryptos about 2.2 trillion but. let's say bitcoin uh it's one trillion.

dollars. if you take the amount of money that is. in um. gold. that is not used for jewelry purposes. and not used by central banks and i. assume bitcoin won't be used for jewelry. purposes or central bank purposes. um that amount in gold is about five. trillion dollars. so right now if you were to. have a portfolio that has um gold and.

crypto um gold then bitcoin it's worth. about 20 of the value of gold. do i think it's going to be uh worth. more than gold. in terms of that mix. i don't think it'll be worth more than. gold but let's say it became worth. as as much as gold i don't believe it. will be i think that 20. sounds kind of about right i really. don't know that what the right answer is. um and then there's the question of what.

is all of that pool of money. that let's say gold and gold equivalents. relative to everything else does it go. from. you know let's call it. six seven eight trillion to sixteen. trillion maybe it could double it. depends what it is in the world. environment but basically if you use. gold as a measure. i um there's no it just makes no sense. that it's going to be used um. that much more.

am i sure about that i'm not sure about. anything but logically it seems to me. that there's a limitation on its price. in relationship to other things that are. like it. let me ask for your deep financial. analysis on a very important issue. uh i've just talked a couple days ago. the elon musk he wants to put a literal. dogecoin on the moon. uh what are your thoughts about deutsche. coin. uh and uh do you think he'll be the. official currency.

maybe uh reserve currency on the moon. and on mars my reaction is that's cute i. remember elon when he first got he he. first got his money from paypal i think. he said to me. it was. he got 180 million dollars 90 million. dollars he decided to say why aren't we. going. to outer space and he. wanted to take a spaceship that would be. modified. using russian technology to put a um.

a plant. and a watering can. on the moon. um. or on mars i think it was. um and and and he said first life on. mars or first line. as an inspiring. uh notion. and so then there's always what's behind. it i have a lot of respect for. elon's ability to do other things behind.

it uh and so i would take that as um. symbolic and i'd be asking him what's. behind it what's what's next and i'm. also just on the topic of deutsche coin. and meme coin and uh there's some aspect. of humor and lightheartedness. that's that's really interesting about. the way we communicate what ideas become. viral. how to captivate people. with ideas. there's something about taking things. too seriously that somehow slows it all.

down and it's interesting you're right. that's part of human nature somehow so. like humor is part of this whole thing. you've uh talked about the importance of. writing ideas down. and uh you have. principles in particular in principles. and you have this really nice thing in. your in your book we actually um. i think there's such a brilliant way. okay. uh you have such a brilliant way of. highlighting which parts are.

extra important and you make them bold. that's a brilliant idea but let me just. ask the high-level question of what's a. good system for um. taking notes. well. i find that almost everything happens. over and over again. um. and we're in this the blizzard of these. things happening and what i found is. that. if i'm making a decision. that. that after i make the decision usually.

or right at the time if i pause and. reflect and i write my principle down in. other words principle is sort of a. recipe. what would i use to how would i make. that decision and what are the criteria. around it i find that i make it much. more. clear it becomes clearer and it applies. to the next thing that comes along it'll. be. that way because everything happens over. and over and over again and i think.

people make the mistake of looking at. just the one like it's the first one. they have i don't know they have the. first problem of this sort of the first. child or whatever it is and this has. been happening plenty of times and so if. you have the principles i found that. that helped me think more clearly about. it and it helped me communicate better. like why. and so over the years over the last 30. years or so. that's what i've done i did it.

originally to communicate very well with. the people i work with um you know i set. up my company and and i it was very. important to have good communication and. then we could debate the principles and. so that's the process. i urge people to do that there are many. excellent decision makers um. and i just wish that they wrote down. their principles when this set. so. for example. we talked about henry kissinger and his. new book is going to come out with a.

book on leadership. um and don't just describe the leaders. describe then what about them were the. essential elements to make a good leader. under what circumstances and so if we. think about that when then also then you. begin to think in a principled way. and then when you start to think in a. principle way life becomes. it's so much easier to make decisions. and it's so much less confusing because.

it's like coming up on a species and you. say okay well what species is it not. just another it's a thing no what. species is it and how do i deal with. that species effectively and and so. that's what that is and so i encourage. people to write it down i wish anybody. who's successful wrote down their. principles or their recipes for making. those types of decisions so the events. of interest here happens over and over.

and over. in similar ways as you're looking for. the patterns and you're defining the. process. that's right to respond. to those patterns and you call that the. principles. and. that allows you to deal with the future. effectively so like that codifies the. lessons from the past to be able to deal. with the future. what advice do you have for young folks. today in high school in college thinking. about how to live uh.

have a career they can be proud of or. maybe have a life they can be proud of. know yourself. follow your passion. make your work and passion the same. thing. while considering the money part because. money will get you. freedom and choice and be able to make. that but. if you know yourself. feel the pull. um and. um and pursue that passion. um and along those lines by the way i.

found um that. using personality profile tests has been. very helpful i've used those for about. 25 years for people to help to. understand themselves and understand. each other so i created a free one. that. is called principles you it's online. it's. had remarkable. loving people who've taken it learn. about themselves but also you can put in.

somebody else and it'll tell you about. your relationship with them that's like. 30 minutes is a quick discovery but the. main thing is to understand on your. journey your hero's journey. when you're um that you will have uh. mistakes. and you will have weaknesses. and to. understand those not fight those. because by understanding. mistakes you will learn not to make. mistakes again i have a principle which.

is pain plus reflection equals progress. and so that reflection is important to. know yourself know your pulls. know your weaknesses and when you also. know your weaknesses and the strengths. of other people there are people who um. have strengths where you're weak and you. have strengths where they're weak and to. be able to work well together is the. most effective way of. achieving uh success.

so yeah it's that journey. and there's a life arc and there's a. journey and you want to make it the best. that you can make it and it has. it's like a video game you know it has. the challenges and the. obstacles and the learning experiences. and the temptations and all of that and. the maximizing learning to go where you. want to go to achieve the life you want. is the most important that's kind of.

maybe a long-winded way of suing it but. to learn i think i'll try to say it. simply there's a five-step process step. one. is. know your goals. know what you're going after. you could have almost anything you want. but you can't have everything you want. and so you have to prioritize and you. move in that direction on the way to. your goals you're going to encounter. your problems and your obstacles.

so identifying step two is understanding. your. problems and your obstacles identify. them. step three. is to diagnose them to get at the root. cause of the problem. and that could be. many root causes but it could also be. your weaknesses or weaknesses of others. but you have to be objective about them. once you diagnose them then you go to. step four which is to design a way to. get around them.

and. then after you have that design. you implement that design so you have to. follow through and do it and you do that. and and that will then produce its new. results which should be better results i. have i call this kind of the looping. process it's the evolutionary looping. process. and um. you do you just keep doing that and you. learn over a period of time and you move. in the direction that you want. last question and you only have one.

minute to answer it. you dedicate the book. quote to my grandchildren and those of. their generation. who will be participants in the. continuation of the story. may the force of evolution be with you. so let me ask where is this force of. evolution taking human civilization. and what in this story that evolution is. writing. gives you hope. evolution isn't. a direction toward improvement.

um and the greatest force is. a man's capacity to adapt and invent. and so you see in the charts in the book. you see that um this upward movement. life expectancy. um. uh. health or all the things that we think. are better you see the there's a chart. and it shows that over a period of time. and you barely see.

the downturns from depressions and wars. in that. that is the greatest power man's ability. to invent and adapt. is evolution and that's the greatest. power and that is what. gives me justifiable hope. and a continuation of that like we. mentioned with elon maybe we'll become a. multi-planetary species so not only will. we keep creating amazing things here on. earth will keep expanding out into the.

cosmos. my time horizon isn't doesn't have me. analyzing that yet but i i. i hope so and i uh agree that that would. mean the nature so i'm not going to ask. you for the best financial system on. mars um i think we'll focus on earth for. now right thank you so much for your. brilliance for the for the books you've. written for the works you've done for. the inspiration from of millions so and. thank you for. spending your valuable time here with me. today thank you. thanks for listening to this.

conversation with ray dalia to support. this podcast please check out our. sponsors in the description. and now let me leave you with some words. from ray dalio himself. every time you confront something. painful you are at a potentially. important juncture in your life you have. the opportunity to choose healthy and. painful truth. or. unhealthy but comfortable delusion. thank you for listening and hope to see. you next time.