What happens if Dems flip Kansas Senate seat? Enten & GOP chair unpack

Okay. So, Trump won Kansas by what? 16 points.  That was in 2024. Correct. And Kansas has not. had a Democratic senator in It has not elected one  since 1932. Okay. Okay. So, if the Democrats flip. Kansas and overcome those two things, is that a  game over scenario broadly? Yeah. I mean, look, let's just take a look at where we are right now,  you know, in terms of the the Senate races and. sort of where we see things are at this point.  Look, Democrats have 47 seats that are either. leaning or likely to be their way at the end of  this election cycle. Republicans at 46. Look at.

what is in yellow in your tossup on there. It  is Kansas. Kansas, a state that hasn't gone. Democratic in the United States Senate race since  1932. Now, you mentioned it, Erin. What is a Dem. Senate win in Kansas mean? Well, it probably  does mean it's game over for the Republicans. and game on for the Democrats. Take a look here.  a ch a demo win in Kansas gives Democrats a 90%. chance roughly therein about chance of winning  the United States Senate. Why is that? Because. if you put t Kansas in blue, look at this. What do  Democrats need to do in order to get that 51 seats.

to a majority? Well, they can win in Maine, which  of course Kla Harris won. Win in Michigan that. Barack Obama won and and excuse me and Joe Biden  won. Win in Ohio, which Sherid Brown of course. won during the first Trump midterm back in 2018.  And what does that do? That gets you to Democrats. 51 seats in a majority. That's why Kansas need  in that scenario. You don't even need You don't. even need Texas. That would get you to 52. All  right. So, Republicans say now I you and I were.

just talking about this in the commercial break.  When you look at where JD Vance is tonight, you. look at where Donald Trump is tonight, the actions  speak louder than the words. Okay. They So, they. can say they don't the polls are bunk, but they're  putting their time in deep red states. What should. be deep red states. However, Republicans will say  the polls are undercounting Republicans. They've. done that in the past. They've been wrong. So,  if that's the case, okay, can you game it out? Yeah. I If, in fact, the polls do underestimate  Republicans, well, you know, we can turn we can.

turn Texas back red, how about Kansas red? How  about we make Ohio red? These are, of course, all states that Donald Trump won back in 2024. How  about Maine, where the polls have underestimated. Susan Collins back in the past, especially the  case in 2020. Or how about Michigan, right? And. let's say Abdul Alsad loses to Mike Rogers. Look,  there's definitely a pathway for Republicans to. win. If in fact we see the polling errors that  we have seen in presidential years, that would. in fact give Republicans a clear pathway to a  majority, right? And then you might have it. Then. again, Alaska where they've already filed that  preemptive lawsuit would not be would not, right?

That would it wouldn't even matter. But, you know,  if you give them those states that Donald Trump. won, that gets them they could easily get the  53 seats. Okay. All right. So, um, tell me tell. me something. I don't know. All this talk about  underounting the Republicans. Did it happen in the. 2022? Okay, this is I think the key nugget here,  Erin. This is the key nugget here. And that is, do. the polls necessarily underestimate Republicans?  Well, take a look here. I went back and looked at. the last midterm election, right? That was back  in 2022. If you look at the close races, who was.

underestimated? Erin, I'll tell you something  you don't know, and that is the Democrats were. in fact underestimated if you look at the final  polling average in 100% of the races. So in fact, it was Democrats during the last midterm in  the Trump era. Democrats were the ones who were. underestimated. So instead of looking like a map  like this, you may look at a map like this with. Democrats of 54, which is really incredible when  you say because polls change constantly, right? So. people could be remembering polls from August or  whatever it might have been ahead of the midterms.

you're talking about. Let's look at this week.  If we look at this week right now, Democrats to. me the polling average put them in a position to  get a majority. We'll see if those polls are right. or if they're biased. They may be imbiased and  Democrats may in fact be undercounted. All right, that is something that we don't know. That's  something you don't know. Thank you very much, Harry Anthony. Last night, Vice President JD  Vance was in Kansas rallying for Senator Roger. Marshall. Top forecasters project that his  traditionally deep red seat could be in play. for Democrats. Here is Vance's pitch to voters.  When we have a free and open debate, the American.

people will realize that all the Democrats are  selling is a fatload of [ __ ] But the truth, ladies and gentlemen, is that America is being  built back better than ever before. All right, Kansas was not even on the radar for either party  heading into this midterm cycle. A Democrat hasn't. won a Senate seat there in nearly a century, but  a brutal political environment for Republicans. has given Democrat Adam Hamilton massive  momentum, and it has some in the GOP scrambling.

New Federal Election Commission filings reveal  a top Republican super PAC just dumped $700,000. into Kansas to help Marshall. Joining us now is  the chairwoman of the Kansas Republican Party, Denedri Herbert. Um, thank you so much for  coming on. So, early voting data shows fewer. registered Kansas Republicans have cast ballots  compared to this point in 2022 and 2024. Are you. concerned at all that this Senate seat could  slip away? No, I'm not. We've seen this uh.

we've seen this movie before. In fact, this is  the not the sequel, but the next version. This. is number three. Um in 2010, no, 2014, it looked  like uh then Senator Pat Roberts was on the ropes. against a so-called independent. Roberts ended up  winning by 11 points. Then in 2020, this same seat. um Senator Marshall was running against a state  senator Democrat. It looked like Marshall was on. the ropes. He ended up winning by 11 points. We've  seen this film before. We know exactly how it. ends. It ends with the Republican um holding the  office. That's just the tradition. Um so yeah, no,

I'm I'm not concerned. Well, JD Vance just made a  second trip to Kansas in two weeks. You you know, um you were there. If you're not  concerned about voter enthusiasm, why does the vice president need to keep coming  back to stump for an incumbent? Look, I think it's. really important that we I I will admit I think  there has been a little bit of an enthusiasm gap, but I think that gap has peaked. If you look at  our um early voting numbers, the Democrats have.

been outvoting um 2022's numbers, but so have  the Republicans. And obviously the Democrats. have done that at a larger percentage, but they  have far fewer voters. There's about 500,000. Democrats compared to about 900,000 Democrats  in Kansas. Their higher propensity voters are. the ones who are running to the polls or were  running to the polls that first week of early. voting. And they're cannibalizing their election  day. We just have so many more voters to reach, so many more opportunities to get our vote out,  and Republicans are going to come home. And you.

mentioned that there there has been a bit of an  enthusiasm gap. You say it's peaked. What do you. think is behind that? Um, I think it's just the  normal cycle of an election. Kansas hasn't had. this much intensity or focus in several in in a  handful of years. The last time the president was. here was 2018. I think the vice president at the  time, Pence, was here in 2018. It's been about 8. years since we've had um some of the very higher  echelons of the Republican party come to Kansas,

but I don't think that's because there is concern,  but the the enthusiasm gap was always going to. close. It's closing um a little slower than  we normally anticipate, but Republicans vote. on election day. Like we we know this and so  I anticipate they will be there um on November. 3rd casting their ballots for Roger Marshall,  Ty Mastersonson, Kris Kobach, Steven Johnson, Tracy M, Derek Smith. They're going to be there  voting for our Republican ticket and they're going. to carry us home. They just they always show up.  They're that's who they are. And and you say that.

there have been tight races before or or races  where you thought maybe a Democrat could pull. it off for a Senate seat. That didn't happen. But  something that's also different this time is just. the amount of money that is being poured in. I  mean, we're talking about that super PAC that just. put in what 700,000 um for Marshall. Spending has  really exploded in the Senate race alto together. According to Ad Impact, there's been $65.7 million  in ad spending and future ad reservations just in. the month of October. I want to look at one  of the ads hitting local screens right now.

There's a bright line that divides our politics  and you're either on the right side of it working. for the release of the Epstein Files or you're on  the wrong side with Roger Marshall. Marshall voted. against releasing the Epstein files. Sex abuse at  a fall church camp. a child predator working for. Adam Hamilton's mega church. What did Hamilton  do when victims reported him to church leaders? Parents were ignored. Are you worried that this  barrage of negative ads in your state is driving.

voters away or even changing minds? No, I'm not  worried at all. It's so saturated here in a way. I've never seen. If you're watching television in  any of our major metropolitan, well, all of our. DMAs, you are seeing backto backto backtoback  political ads and they're basically making the. same accusation at each other and I think at some  point the voters just tune those out. Um that they. already know what they think in their gut. Um this  may give them a little bit of um confidence that.

what they think is correct to begin with, but I  don't think it keeps voters home. I'm not even. sure it turns voters out other than it reminds  them that there is an election coming up. I. don't think these messages are landing anymore  just because we are so saturated. You can watch. the same ad three times in a row watching some  some TV or um over the top streaming like same. exact ad three times in a row. It's people just  sick of it. You just thought it Are people just.

sick of it? It seems like the sentiment I hear  from folks is like they're just over it. Yeah, they are over it. I'll tell you what, I love  it. This is my only time of the year where I. like to watch the TV ads. But yeah, people are  sick of it. They're looking forward to when we. have insurance commercials and prescription drug  commercials back on the air. For sure. All right, Denedri Herbert, great to have you on. Thank  you. Hey, thank you so much. Appreciate it.